Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 27 Jan 2025 09:20

"Let me make something clear, time is playing for Russia and Ukraine is running out of time. Ukraine is just about to lose this war. Russian advances are now beginning to switch to the operational level." : Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner’s latest interview with ZDF TV, where he states unequivocally that Ukraine may not even last the three months it would take to reach the “100 days negotiations”

Source: "simplicus" blog

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Feb 2025 06:56

First Mirage-2000s in Ukraine … 26 units planned

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 08 Feb 2025 09:51

The lack of any significant air to air kills on either side is very surprising. Western wisdom(propaganda) suggests that the f-16 should by now be wiping the floor with the Russian jets yet they seem to be shying away from air to air engagements as much as the Russians are hiding the su-57. The Ukranians lack any decent force multiplier assets yet the Russians are struggling to get air superiority. Strange war.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Feb 2025 13:06

The Air defense environment is soo thick with best of NATO VS Best of Russia, Imagine UK/France running out SCALP- which was their premier missile, BUK, S-300, S-400, Patriots, Nasams have been so liberally used, no side wants to see their fighters go the others territory.

Also The propaganda is on the Western side, every Russian Aircraft/ Possible loss strike is reported by Ukrainian / NATO losses unless it has become so obvious is denied.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 14 Feb 2025 16:46

Reports of Russian drone attack on Chernobyl nuclear sarcophagus. I find this hard to believe but posting it here for future reverence. Source: Reddit

https://packaged-media.redd.it/kqxsm4hb ... 12539d3eae

This is even being reported by Washington Post, EuroNews and Forbes.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 16 Feb 2025 13:46

My latest blogpost with my ideas on how the war might end,

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/02/uk ... t-end.html

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 17 Feb 2025 18:26

There is an interesting podcast series on the war with Alexey Arestovych

He used to be the spokesman for Zelenski's office, but was fired after he went against some of the more ridiculous claims made by
Ukraine. He is now in exile and while he continues to be Anti Russia, his analysis of the fighting is the first realistic account I have seen
from the Ukrainian side.
He was also a Colonel in Military intelligence, so he knows what he is talking about when evaluating the Russians.

Use English auto translate (in subtitles). There is also a way to use AI to get an English voice, but my IT knowledge does not extend to that.
I follow enough Russian to know the sub titles are fairly accurate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ96VJn49Gw

srai · Post by **srai** » 22 Feb 2025 16:04

FPV drone countering fiber optic drone

In this instance it looks like fiber optic drone has somewhat of a predictable flight path following a straight road. It would need a clear flight path for its fiber optics line.

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Feb 2025 04:23

If the €20 billion goes through, then that would be enough for another year of fighting…

EU leaders plan €20B Ukraine aid package as Trump turns against Zelenskyy

…
The amount of European aid, which would include military hardware like artillery shells and missiles as well as cash, could yet rise farther as diplomats continue intensive consultations ahead of a gathering of foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday. POLITICO reported earlier this week that the package's projected value was €6 billion to €10 billion, but that amount has changed during the talks and could still evolve.

The push to replenish Ukraine's arms supply is being coordinated by the bloc's top diplomat, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, and aims to surpass previous European commitments of military aid. Diplomats stressed that the aid, which is still being negotiated, would likely come in the form of pooled contributions from individual member states rather than an official EU package, given opposition from certain states, namely Hungary.
…

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Feb 2025 06:20

If American Satellite imagery Elint Aircraft are taken out Ukrainian will have little idea of income missiles and targeting Russian targets plus Fuel required to Ukrainian logistics apart from 50% of the weapons. Right now US and Russia are negotiating withe the US is seeing whether the Ukrainians can give them a good rare earth's. If US truly cuts of assistance, Ukraine will collapse pretty fast

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Feb 2025 09:33

^^^
Hasn’t the last US military aid (few billions worth) already been shipped? Probably enough for few months of US weaponry usage.

What new military aid is occurring under the new administration? When do you think the collapse will start?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 23 Feb 2025 18:12

I think the funding by the prev admin is still winding its way down Pentagon's murky webs. Not sure how EU and UK funding trickles down into Ukr.

The whole sham edifice has already started collapsing in case you didn't notice. The Russians are drawing it out slowly to pile on injury and ignominy upon the europeans and to serve their own long term interests.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 23 Feb 2025 23:51

Sraiji: Biden had front loaded a lot of support in anticipation of this very scenario. How long this existing support lasts is anybodys guess. My guess is Ukraine is pretty self sufficient in drone manufacture - the parts required are cheap and can be procured by its European partners easily so its not going to be affected. Munitions and spare plasters for bradleys, abrams, atacams if a different kettle of fish… But then again Iran managed to keep its F14s flying for quite a long time so I am sure Ukraine is not going to collapse soon.

The key as some one has said is access to American ISR and more importantly to Starlink. Especially the latter.. cut off that and Ukrainian capacity to coordinate is severely hampered.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Feb 2025 12:46

well in the next 2 months it will raining and muddy, come late May till end of Sep 25, we will know what fight is left with Ukraine.

Russians have lost a lot, but given since Mar 22, The sheer Artillery, Missile, Fabs advantage, despite what the Western Media is saying it looks Like Ukraine has a lot more casualties. In 1944 the Wermacht was still formidable, it all went public ally downhill in very quick time.

I don't Russia wants to occupy any big city and be responsible for rebuilding Ukraine, they will want only Odessa and Mykolaiv area in addition to Slovank , Kramotorsk, Prokovorsk, land east of the Oskil River.

Without meaningful US support Russia can get these in the Summer of 2025- Zelensky if he decides to listen UK France could be running out of any cards left.

srai · Post by **srai** » 25 Feb 2025 02:00

72-hour special military operation has turned into 3-years of grinding war of attrition. Staggering losses on both sides …

From the video, these are the Russian losses:

812,670 casualties (by May 2025, projected 1 million)
9,938 MBT
20,709 armored vehicles
35,921 other military vehicles
22,650 artillery
369 combat aircraft
331 helicopters
28 warships

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Feb 2025 02:59

What next after quoting Kyiv Post? Quoting numbers from Zelenskys Vodka pe Charcha programme?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2025 13:19

srai wrote: ↑25 Feb 2025 02:00 72-hour special military operation has turned into 3-years of grinding war of attrition. Staggering losses on both sides …

From the video, these are the Russian losses:

812,670 casualties (by May 2025, projected 1 million)

9,938 MBT

20,709 armored vehicles

35,921 other military vehicles

22,650 artillery

369 combat aircraft

331 helicopters

28 warships

Russia never quoted a 72 hour time line, EU US Ukraine Pissed on Minsk 1 and 2 attacking Civilians, in Mar 22 a peace deal was ready. the relatively small Russian Army of 180K never had any intention of occupying any Large Ukranian city- the initial force was too small, Hostamel was faint to get the land South around Mariupol, Tokmak etc and create a land bridge to Crimea.

If Russian losses are high as per claims Western Media will be doing displays like they were doing in Kyiv in Mar 22, it is Ukraine which is Kidnapping its citizens from the Street and stopping them from fleeing.

And if there was any truth to it Trump jumping to claim victory rather the behavior is opposite- yes many German supporters believed that Germany could win as late as Dec 44- people are free to believe but the facts seem to indicate otherwise.

I think Trump is smart- Ukraine - summer 25 will be worse for Ukraine - Russia will have more lands it feels it needs and rebuilding cost for Ukraine is going to fall on the EU.

srai · Post by **srai** » 25 Feb 2025 18:12

Tanaji wrote: ↑25 Feb 2025 02:59 What next after quoting Kyiv Post? Quoting numbers from Zelenskys Vodka pe Charcha programme?

Instead, post the numbers you have (from whatever sources you have)

srai · Post by **srai** » 25 Feb 2025 18:19

^^^
UK MoD estimates on
7 Jan 2025 -> 790K
24 Feb 2025 -> 860K

https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1876584633103507960

https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1893961168584134757

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2025 18:24

UK intelligence has been predicting Russian collapse is imminent in 2days from 22 Feb 22, even the Ukrainians don't believe them, they have been at Russia from Crimean war in the 1850's

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Feb 2025 20:31

Sraiji,

One doesnt need to go far. Dean saar has done an excellent and exhaustive analysis of casualties by other side based on open source information. Most importantly, he has posted a detailed description of the methodology used. I urge you to read that rather than those from west or Russia.

One other point: if Russia was indeed about to lose, the Ukranian summer offensive with their much vaunted Abrams and assorted equipment, freshly trained under Western tactics of combined manoeuvres should have made progress- instead it failed miserably.

Russia also lives in a quantum state: it is simultaneously pathetic with nearly a million casualties with no capacity to exert pressure ( your own source above) and it also is to be feared so much that sll Europe needs to radically rearm at 3-5% of GDP else Russia will attack Europe in 2026….

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2025 03:22

^^^
Please post the latest numbers in summarized form.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 26 Feb 2025 03:59

This narrative of 'a million Russian casualties' is, if true (which it's not) also means Russia will never give up the territory they gained at such a high cost. Any compromise will make Putin hugely unpopular with Russian people, armed forces and likely lead to his political demise.

The UK and EU 'analcysts' pushing such stories can't be bothered with logic or facts it seems...

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:04

Part 13, of my Ukraine war series, analyses Russia's winter offensive.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/02/uk ... inter.html

I conclude that while territorial gains are few, Ukraine is being steadily attrited and Russia is shaping the battlefield for a possibly decisive
spring offensive.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:10

Aditya_V wrote: ↑25 Feb 2025 18:24 UK intelligence has been predicting Russian collapse is imminent in 2days from 22 Feb 22, even the Ukrainians don't believe them, they have been at Russia from Crimean war in the 1850's

This is not incorrect. They are just being economical with the facts.
I explain this in detail in my blog and reconcile numbers from different sources.

These figures (Russian casualties) are what Russia calls `sanitary losses'. These refer to all dead and wounded, with wounded being defined
as anyone absent from the battlefield for any medical reason, for a day. If you have a fever and in hospital for a day, it is a sanitary loss.

A ratio of 1 : 6 is fairly normal for dead : wounded.
In Israel or the US it is 1:8 (faster evacuation and better medical care).
Assuming 1 in 7 is dead ( 1 dead + 6 wounded), Russian losses of 860000, would mean around 122000 KIA, which was in line with an earlier estimate I made. Mediazona (which is accurate) has the number of dead at 95,000 + those from the Donbass fighting for Russia. That and some time lag would
also give a figure of 115-120000 KIA.

Similar sanitary losses for Ukraine (as reported by Russia) which I have found to be reasonably accurate after cross referencing, are over
1 million. Add to that 100,000 deserted. (excluding 200,000 temporary desertions and traced).
Some Pro Russia western commentators like Lt Col Scott Ritter, or Col Douglas McGregor, or Col Jacques Baud who mention 1 million Ukrainian
dead, are wrong for the same reason that the UK MOD figure is wrong if you assume their numbers are dead only.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:26

Russian casualties (even in Western reporting) have been reducing over time while Ukraine's have been increasing.
This is also not surprising because Russia got its act together, while the quality of Ukrainian manpower has steadily dropped. In 2024, almost all
Ukrainians who joined were conscripted, some against their will. Every Russian who joined was a volunteer. Russian volunteers, even with previous
military experience had 6 months of retraining. Ukrainians with zero experience had a max of three months.

There is a simple way to reconcile casualty figures.
I use `irrecoverable losses'. These mean: KIA + Seriously wounded + missing believed KIA + deserted + POW.

We know the starting combat strength of both armies.
We know with reasonable certainty, the number recruited on both sides.
We know the approx current strength.
The difference is irrecoverable casualties.

I have spent hours with Russian sources to find out for e.g. that the newly formed 104 Airborne division has one regiment less than usual,
or that some units have been double counted (a previously independent brigade has been made part of a new division).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:32

srai wrote: ↑26 Feb 2025 03:22 ^^^
Please post the latest numbers in summarized form.

Russia about 355000 irreplaceable losses. (115,000 KIA, 230,000 seriously wounded, 10k deserted or POW).
Ukraine about 500,000 (incl 100,000 deserted and untraceable).

Foreign fighters excluded. About 15k irrecoverable for Ukraine.

Since Aug 24, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses has been 1:6

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:42

The Kiel institute, which is a far more credible NATO source than the UK MOD has production figures for Russia, which I analyse in my
blog article. They conclude that Russian armament production is more than losses and more than the combined output of Europe.

Midway through my article (below) is a heading : Kiel report. That has 2 tables which summarise Russian production.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/uk ... inter.html

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Feb 2025 22:47

UK is equating tanks being hit with tanks being lost.

Most Russian tank and AFV losses in the past year have been from drones. Over 80% are recovered, some are repaired in forward workshops
instead of going back to the factory. Just like WW2, even women engineers from the tank factory, go to the front to understand tank damage and
carry out repairs on the spot.
Every Ukrainian AFV of western origin has to go back to Europe for minor repairs.
The side that advances gets to recover damaged tanks. Russia has been advancing since Nov 23.

That said, even 3250 tanks lost in 3 years against the densest concentration of ATGMs and drones in military history, is low.

Russia has been losing 1 tank a day for the past year.
Israel lost 20/ day in the Yom Kippur war. We lost 5 / day in 1965 & 71.

srai · Post by **srai** » 05 Mar 2025 03:20

Now that the US military aid is paused, let’s see how Ukraine performs over the next few weeks/months ahead

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 05 Mar 2025 04:02

The pause is temporary. Baniansky is already back cap in hand making conciliatory noises. He will sign the deal and the aid will resume … less than a month I give it to restart.

The UK plan is a non starter as well … Russia will never accept British troops as peacekeepers on its border. Ukraine will keep fighting with massed drone attacks, but eventually it’s going to run out of men to fight at this rate.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 05 Mar 2025 21:11

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/art ... -fn3nc0bjx

America has severed intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in what could be a huge blow to Ukraine’s ability to fight back against the Russians and defend itself from incoming missiles.

The UK has also reportedly been blocked from sharing any intelligence provided by the US with its Ukrainian allies.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Mar 2025 23:51

If they shut off Starlink then AFU will surrender in a matter of days.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Mar 2025 21:46

Ukraine has suffered a big defeat at Kursk. Its forces inside the Kursk bulge are cut off and are retreating/surrendering.

Some trumpet blowing: As an amateur blogger on the Ukraine war, its feels good to see my predictions on the war turn out right,
particularly when they go against mainstream opinion and professional analysts. In my blog article back in 5 Sept, I believed Ukraine's Kursk incursion would be a disaster, as it has turned out to be. Ukraine has just suffered its biggest defeat of the war and for the reasons I mentioned.

In 1943, the first battle of Kursk was a risky gamble by Hitler, but with a big upside if he won. Kursk 2.0 was as risky, but with no upside. Hitler called off the battle in five days. Zelensky waited 6 months, until the decision was no longer his.

10 Ukrainian brigades - some of their finest units and the reserve of Western tanks were thrown into the battle. At the time of the operational
encirclement yesterday, they were reduced to 10,000 men.
One interesting feature of a Russian assault into the main town (Sudzha), is that Russian assault forces crawled a long distance through a gas
pipeline (1.4 meters in dia) to emerge behind the Ukrainians - ironically that was possible because Ukraine cut the gas flowing
into Europe, through that pipeline.

bala · Post by **bala** » 08 Mar 2025 22:36

Deans, what is Russia's plan before it gets down to Ukraine settlement with the US. Are other cities in Ukraine like Sumy (Sudzha is very near Sumy) and Kharkiv in the plan for capture. Getting Kursk back is their own territory from Ukraine. Without US intelligence Ukraine army cannot function properly.

The US and Russia will hammer out a deal. DJT also wants a nuclear deal with Russia. Poor Eurotards they are excluded from any discussions on Ukraine, along with their point man Zels!

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 Mar 2025 07:22

EU NATO “Sky Shield” over Western part of Ukraine with a force of 120 fighter jets

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 09 Mar 2025 16:09

Europe seems hell bent to lose whatever Air Force capacity they have. Fighters against missiles seems like a harebrained idea. Perhaps they will down a few slow moving cruise missiles if they are lucky. For anything supersonic the risks outweigh the gains. For shooting down hypersonic missiles - that will be a first in the world.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 10 Mar 2025 01:18

bala wrote: ↑08 Mar 2025 22:36 ...
The US and Russia will hammer out a deal. DJT also wants a nuclear deal with Russia. Poor Eurotards they are excluded from any discussions on Ukraine, along with their point man Zels!
...

bala ji, just this morning Sen. Lindsey Graham was on TV asking Trump to keep giving arms to and share intelligence with Ukraine so that they can defend themselves. He (or another fellow who came right after him on to the idiot box) said that leaving Pukraine hastily will be worse than Afghan pull out snafu. I don't how that is though. Afghanistan had American soldiers on the ground. Not so with Pakraine.

MIC is pulling strings of some these senators and think-tankers me thinks.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 10 Mar 2025 01:25

Deans wrote: ↑08 Mar 2025 21:46
One interesting feature of a Russian assault into the main town (Sudzha), is that Russian assault forces crawled a long distance through a gas
pipeline (1.4 meters in dia) to emerge behind the Ukrainians - ironically that was possible because Ukraine cut the gas flowing
into Europe, through that pipeline.

Dean ji, that is interesting. Very daring plan that. Putin is going to play hardball now that Zelensky is proven to be a paper tiger more than once yet Euros are egging him on.

I remember the Russians telling Shittistanis in Tashkent, when the shittistanis asked for Kashmir, that they are trying to get something through diplomacy which they couldn't through a war they instigated and lost.

I wonder whether Zelensky is a student of Shittistanis. Pakraine is an apt nickname for his country.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 10 Mar 2025 06:53

Vayutuvan wrote: ↑10 Mar 2025 01:18 I wonder whether Zelensky is a student of Shittistanis.

Whether he is a student or not, I don't know, but he is certainly a carbon copy of the stupid Paki pattern of behavior. Come to think of it, some European countries are as well.