India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[KL Dubey]

Meanwhile:

MEA says: . . .

The part I liked from Jaiswal's reply was "In fact, it is the USCIRF that should be designated as an entity of concern"

I wish they would just do it, than "should". This nuisance has gone on for long years.

[Cyrano]

Exactly! They should designate it as a terrorist propaganda organisation, declare its current and future members PNG, and demand that it be disbanded before making any tariff concessions and trade agreements. Thats a language Trump will understand.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TR ... pwjmqklvw/
Average tariff rates of U.S. and its top 15 trading partners

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile -- there are a few posts in nuclear dhaga .. x-posting reference here..


Huge news in many news papers - India and the US have made significant strides in their nuclear cooperation, particularly with the recent approval of Holtec International's small modular reactor (SMR) technology transfer to India. This development is a major breakthrough in the India-US civil nuclear partnership, which has been sluggish due to various legal and regulatory challenges .

My take- Key Implications of the Deal:

- The US Department of Energy's (DOE) approval allows Holtec to share its SMR technology with three Indian entities: Holtec Asia, Tata Consulting Engineers Ltd, and Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
- The collaboration is expected to deepen India's nuclear expertise, localize SMR manufacturing, and strengthen its position in the global SMR market.
- The Indian government has announced plans to deploy over 40 SMRs by 2032, with a budget of ₹200 billion allocated for the Nuclear Energy Mission .

Reactions from India and the US:

India: The approval is seen as a significant step towards achieving India's goal of developing 100 gigawatts of nuclear energy by 2047.

US: The US government views this collaboration as an opportunity to strengthen its strategic partnership with India and counter China's growing influence in the nuclear sector.

Overall, this development marks a significant milestone in India-US nuclear cooperation..

[uddu]

If Vivek Ramaswamy is to be believed, he was of the opinion that U.S Nuclear tech industry is very backward compared to the Chinese by decades due to various regulations and bureaucratic bottlenecks that prevented the U.S companies from fielding new generation reactors. He was very vocal about it during his election campaign.

[NRao]

.....................

Overall, this development marks a significant milestone In India-US nuclear cooperation..

I certainly hope so.

In May 2023, GoI produced (The Role of Small Modular Reactors in the Energy Transition), a 106-page document on SMR. The first 26 pages (~25%) were full of rif-raf, pictures of various gov officials, and statements.

[Amber G.]

From news: Indo - U.S Joint HADR Amphibious Exercise - Tiger TRIUMPH Opening Ceremony - Joint Statement

The opening ceremony of the 4th edition of the bilateral joint Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) amphibious exercise between India and the U.S. - Tiger TRIUMPH 2025 - was held onboard the Indian Navy’s INS Jalashwa (L41) on April 1, 2025. The exercise reflects the deepening convergence of U.S.-India strategic maritime interests and the countries’ defense partnership. The present edition is aimed at further enhancement of interoperability and combined joint all-domain operations during large-scale HADR operations.

The harbour phase of the exercise is being conducted at Visakhapatnam from April 1-7, and involves a planning process for the execution of various training events at sea, as well as further refinement of procedures established in previous iterations of Tiger TRIUMPH. In addition, the harbor phase will include training and Subject Matter Expert Exchange (SMEE) events on a range of professional subjects, such as special operations, emergency medical response procedures, and operations across the air, maritime, cyber and space domains. These exchanges will allow our forces to continue sharing best practices and building stronger bonds. Sports engagements and visits to sites of cultural importance will also be coordinated to nurture camaraderie and develop personal relationships.

During the sea phase, which will take place from April 8-12, the bilateral forces will work together to train for maritime, amphibious and HADR operations through a Joint Combined Command and Control Center. This phase will conclude with establishment of a joint combined humanitarian relief and medical response camp following an amphibious landing at Kakinada. Participating units from the Indian Navy include Landing Platform Dock INS Jalashwa with integral landing crafts and helicopters, the Delhi-class guided-missile destroyer INS Mumbai (D62), Magar-class amphibious assault ship INS Gharial (L23), Deepak-class fleet tanker INS Shakti (A57) and PBI Long-Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft, MH60R Helicopters and Hawk Aircraft. The Indian Army will be represented by an Infantry Battalion group, including Mechanised Forces, and Special Operations Forces from all the three services will also participate in the exercise. Cyber and Space specialists will also participate in the exercise. The Indian Air force will demonstrate the capability of C130, Mi-17 V5 and showcase the air portable BHISMA medical equipment. The participating U.S. Task Force would comprise a U.S. Navy Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship USS Comstock (LSD 45), with embarked U.S. Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit and 1st Light Armored Reconnaissance battalion, as well as the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114) and a Navy P8A Poseidon aircraft. The U.S. Space Force and Air Force are supporting the exercise with subject matter experts and a C-130J aircraft, respectively. The U.S. Army will be represented by a platoon, medical platoon, Civil-Military Operations Center and Multi-Domain Task Force Combined Information Effects Fusion Cell.

[Amber G.]

.....................

Overall, this development marks a significant milestone In India-US nuclear cooperation..

I certainly hope so.

In May 2023, GoI produced (The Role of Small Modular Reactors in the Energy Transition), a 106-page document on SMR. The first 26 pages (~25%) were full of rif-raf, pictures of various gov officials, and statements.

Hope so too.

I think, it's great to see India and the US making progress in their nuclear cooperation, especially with the approval of Holtec International's SMR technology transfer to India. This development has the potential to strengthen India's nuclear expertise, localize SMR manufacturing, and boost its position in the global SMR market.

Regarding the document on SMR produced by the Government of India (GoI) in May 2023, it's not surprising that the initial pages were dedicated to introductory remarks and photographs of government officials. However, the substance of the report is what matters, and it's encouraging that the GoI is actively exploring the potential of SMRs in India's energy transition.

This has been discussed in nuclear dhaga. The report likely provides valuable insights into India's SMR strategy, including its plans to deploy over 40 SMRs by 2032. This ambitious goal is expected to contribute significantly to India's target of developing 100 gigawatts of nuclear energy by 2047 .

Overall, the progress made in India-US nuclear cooperation and the GoI's efforts to develop SMR technology are promising steps towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future for India.

[Tanaji]

India hit with sweeping tariffs of 26% by Trump as almost everyone is subjected to it. Even the lackey UKstanis are hit with 10%.

Does it affect the service sector as well?

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... reaking_hp

Poetic names: Liberation Day , MAWA

[Amber G.]

India hit with sweeping tariffs of 26% by Trump as almost everyone is subjected to it. Even the lackey UKstanis are hit with 10%...

It seems only Russia is absent from the list.. (Ukraine's tariff is 10%.)

[A_Gupta]

The average theoretical tariff that India has on the US is 17%. Trade weighted it is 12%.
(via https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TR ... pwjmqklvw/ )

Trump says it is 52%, which is a blatant falsehood.

[Amber G.]

Interesting Article in NY Times:

India is on a hiring binge that Trump’s tariffs can’t stop]India is on a hiring binge that Trump’s tariffs can’t stop

(Behind a paywall - Summary: Excdrpts:

BENGALURU, India — In India’s most advanced cities, American companies are racing to set up more and bigger offshore campuses: fully staffed offices with high-skilled Indian professionals, performing functions vital to global business.

The concentration is most stark in bits of Bengaluru. Apul Nahata of RapidAI, a Silicon Valley-based medical technology company that uses artificial intelligence to interpret brain scans, can look out the window of the office he leads in India and see a “density of companies” relevant to his work.

“If I walk a half-kilometer, I see Google, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Visa, Samsung and Amazon right here,” said Nahata, who spent 10 years of his career in California. He is especially tuned in to his neighbors in tech, but JPMorgan Chase has the biggest of these offices, with 55,000 workers spread across Bengaluru and four other Indian cities. Even all-American retailers like Target and Lowe’s have centers employing 4,000 to 5,000 Indians in Bengaluru.

Under President Donald Trump, the United States is upending some of its most important trading partnerships. He is particularly irritated by the $46 billion U.S. deficit in the trade of goods with India. Trump has also complained about Indian workers without legal status.

But Trump’s stated policy solutions — higher U.S. tariffs meant to force India to lower its trade barriers, and the deportations of immigrants — will do nothing to slow the evolution of the long partnership that binds together American companies looking for skilled workers overseas and India’s abundant pool of labor

(IMO The New York Times has often been critical of the Modi government and many like me view the NYT as biased against India or pushing a Western narrative..

However, this article takes a different tone. Instead of being overtly critical, it highlights India’s economic strengths—its skilled workforce, its ability to attract major American companies, and its growing role in the global economy.

That said, NYT might still be framing the story in a way that emphasizes U.S. interests first—showing how outsourcing benefits American companies rather than how it fits into India’s broader economic strategy.

So while this particular piece isn't negative toward India and I decided to quote it here..

[A_Gupta]

^^^ URL does not work.

[Amber G.]

^^^ Thanks. Fixed the URL (in any case NYTimes article is easy to fine link to)

[A_Gupta]

The formula for tariffs is (US trade deficit)/(country's exports) as a percentage, and then halving it.

So, e.g, Pakistan exports 5.1 billion to the US and imports 2.1 billion.
The US trade deficit is 3 billion.
So Pakistan's tariff is 3/5.1 divided by 2 --> 29%

In 2024, U.S. goods exports to India in 2024 were $41.8 billion, U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion.
The US trade deficit is 45.6 billion
So India's tariff is 45.6/(2*87.4) = 0.26 --> 26%

There is a floor of 10%, I.e., the tariff is the higher of 10% and the number as calculated above.

[vimal]

The formula for tariffs is (US trade deficit)/(country's exports) as a percentage, and then halving it.

So, e.g, Pakistan exports 5.1 billion to the US and imports 2.1 billion.
The US trade deficit is 3 billion.
So Pakistan's tariff is 3/5.1 divided by 2 --> 29%

In 2024, U.S. goods exports to India in 2024 were $41.8 billion, U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion.
The US trade deficit is 45.6 billion
So India's tariff is 45.6/(2*87.4) = 0.26 --> 26%

There is a floor of 10%, I.e., the tariff is the higher of 10% and the number as calculated above.

So you are saying Pakistan beat India again on tarrif? What a shame.

[KL Dubey]

The average theoretical tariff that India has on the US is 17%. Trade weighted it is 12%.

Most of this is of theoretical/token nature for the Indian side, since very few USA manufacturing companies have capacity to compete with imports in the US market itself - let alone the Indian market.

Using a single tariff number for each country - instead of targeting areas/goods where high tariffs could actually work - and also targeting "all countries" at the same time - is a logic that is hard to understand.

[chetak]

Finally, after over two years delay

On Tuesday (March 25), GE delivered the first of 99 F404-IN20 engines to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft Mk 1A fighter jet.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c204q6n0lzvo
Trump wants India to buy US corn - but here's why it probably won't

Why won't India buy even a single bushel of American corn?

That's the question US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick raised recently while criticising India's trade policies, taking a swipe at its market restrictions.

In another interview, Lutnick accused India of blocking US farmers and urged it to open its agricultural market - suggesting quotas or limits as a possible approach.
...
...
For years, Washington has pushed for greater access to India's farm sector, seeing it as a major untapped market. But India has fiercely protected it, citing food security, livelihoods and interests of millions of small farmers.

...
Yet, despite such major gains, Indian agriculture still lags in productivity, infrastructure and market access. Global price volatility and climate change add to the challenge. Crop yields lag far behind the global best. Small landholdings worsen the problem - Indian farmers work with less than a hectare on average, while their American counterparts had over 46 hectares in 2020.

No surprise then that productivity remains low, even though farming remains India's backbone, supporting over 700 million people, nearly half the country's population. Agriculture employs nearly half of India's workforce but accounts for just 15% of GDP. In comparison, less than 2% of the US population depends on farming. With limited manufacturing jobs, more people are stuck in low-paying farm work, an unusual trend for a developing country.

This structural imbalance also shapes India's trade policies. Despite its farm surplus, India keeps tariffs high to shield its farmers from cheap imports. It maintains moderate to high tariffs - ranging from zero to 150% - on farm imports.
...
But as the two countries work on a trade deal, experts say Washington now wants to push "big-ticket" farm exports - wheat, cotton, corn and maize - to narrow its $45bn trade deficit with India.

"They're not looking to export berries and stuff this time. The game is much bigger," says Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert from the Delhi-based Council for Social Development think tank.

Pushing India to lower farm tariffs, cut price support and open up to genetically modified (GM) crops and dairy ignores the fundamental asymmetry in global agriculture, experts argue.

The US, for instance, heavily subsidises its agriculture and protects farmers through crop insurance.
"In some cases," says Ajay Srivastava of GTRI, "US subsidies exceed 100% of production costs, creating an uneven playing field that could devastate India's smallholder farmers."

Abhijit Das, former head of the Centre for WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, says "the key thing to remember is that agriculture in the two countries is entirely different".

"The US has commercial agriculture, while India relies on intensive, subsistence farming. It's a question of the livelihoods of millions of Indians versus the interests of US agribusiness."

[A_Gupta]

"India must not yield to US pressure to open its agriculture sector," says Mr Srivastava. He warns that doing so would disrupt millions of livelihoods, threaten food security and flood local markets with cheap imports.

"India must prioritise its national interest and protect its rural economy. Trade cooperation should not come at the cost of our farmers, food sovereignty or policy autonomy."

In the long run, experts say India must modernise its agriculture, making farming more remunerative, and become more competitive to boost exports. Unupom Kausik of agri-business Olam estimates that with top global yields, India could generate a surplus of 200 million metric tonnes of paddy - enough to supply global trade and combat hunger.

"In a way, Trump is holding up a mirror to us. We've done little to invest in agriculture's productive capacity," says Mr Dhar. "For now, buying time is the best strategy - maybe offering the US cheaper imports of industrial goods as a trade-off."

But for the best outcome, he says, India will have to "play hardball. Basically, tell the US - we're open to negotiations on other fronts, but don't destabilise our agriculture".

[SRajesh]

^^
Guptaji
Can this be a catalyst for Farm laws 2.0

[A_Gupta]

If the government follows the “never let a crisis go to waste” principle, farm laws may improve. We will have to see how bruised the government is after the Waqf bill.

If India reduces the trade imbalance with the US it will face lower tariffs, I suppose; but never less than 10%.

Trump has the legal power to set tariffs only in a national emergency. The Senate has already voted to revoke the national emergency; some Republican senators joined the Democrats.

However in the House, the Speaker has said he will not let such a measure come to a vote. There are some procedural tricks that can eventually force a vote. But even if it comes to a vote it is unclear if such a bill will pass. Even if it passes, Trump can veto it, and I doubt the votes currently exist to override his veto.

Only after a lot of pain and damage to the American voter might the situation change.

[chetak]

^^
Guptaji
Can this be a catalyst for Farm laws 2.0

Maybe, SRajesh ji.


But the amrikis will have to work with the khalistanis and there in lie the many anti India compromises that may have to be made by them, causing us not only distress but perhaps forcing India to deny / restrict trade.

the khalistanis operate across a broad front that includes amrika, kaneda and the britshits, not to mention the paki isi playing footsie under the geopolitical table

You would have noticed that as soon as trumpwa won and the soreass ecosystem in India got hit by the Modi clampdown, the "farmers" of punjab caved very quickly and quietly

[Amber G.]

The average theoretical tariff that India has on the US is 17%. Trade weighted it is 12%.

Most of this is of theoretical/token nature for the Indian side, since very few USA manufacturing companies have capacity to compete with imports in the US market itself - let alone the Indian market.

Using a single tariff number for each country - instead of targeting areas/goods where high tariffs could actually work - and also targeting "all countries" at the same time - is a logic that is hard to understand.

Just learned that USA's new economic policy is being run by a neural network.. . and it's a real 'activation' of tariffs! Yes it looks like they are using a ReLU to set tariffs! Guess that's one way to 'rectify' the trade deficit...


--
Seriously, kid you not -- The Deputy White House Press Secretary is claiming that the "tariff rates" on Trump's chart were calculated by "literally" measuring every country's tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers.

To prove it, the screenshots the formula the USTR says was used to calculate the reciprocal tariffs ... and when you back out the Greek symbols, what is that formula? , it divided "our" trade deficit with a country by our imports with that country", and then multiplied by 0.5 - because Trump was being "lenient"....





BTW if trade deficit/imports with a country is less than 10%, or (have a trade surplus with a country), Trump slapped a flat 10% tariff on that country...

[Amber G.]

BTW - US senators Grassley and Carnwell introduce legislations to require congress to approve all these new tariffs. within 60 days. --- Breaking news.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile in another news - Virginia Bill 2783 was signed by the governor into law - after removing all references of 'Nazi swastika' to 'Nazi Symbols'

Virginia’s HB 2783 makes clear that displaying the “sacred swastika word and symbol” will not be considered a crime.

A huge step in protecting both religious freedom & combating hate!

[saip]

I am happy India did not get with what Saint Pierre and Miquelon got hit with - 50% tariffs (all of its 5000 population will go broke now). Rejoice for these small mercies from the King for Life - Donald Trump.

[A_Gupta]

The US dollar is sinking, making American purchases more expensive and reducing the ability of exporting countries to absorb some of the tariff increases.

[Vayutuvan]

I have no idea why some are worried about Saint Pierre and Miquelton. Thy are surely not going to go bankrupt.

Misplaced hamdardi

From Wikipedia:

Code: Select all

GDP				$261.3 million (2015 est. PPP)
GDP per capita	$46,200 (2006 est.)
GDP by sector	agriculture: 2%; industry: 15%; [color=#BF0000]services: 83%[/color] (2006 est.)
Inflation (CPI)		1.5% (2015 est.)
Labour force		4,429 (2015 est.)
Labour force by occupation	agriculture: 18%; industry: 41%; [color=#BF0000]services: 41%[/color] (1996 est.)
Unemployment	8.7% (2015 est.)

Exports			[color=#BF0000]6.641 million[/color] (2010 est.)

They can always break off from France and join the US become part of Maine, say.

[saip]

Oh, now there is 10% tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands. How are we going to collect that? Hope the External Revenue Service sends someone to those islands.

[Vayutuvan]

It is called a "write off".

[Amber G.]

It seems that wrt to India'- US exempts pharma from tariffs.. good for both US and India... per news reports ..
> US exempting pharmaceuticals from reciprocal tariffs .. acknowledging India's crucial role in global healthcare through its generic medicines..

[Aditya_V]

Oh, now there is 10% tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands. How are we going to collect that? Hope the External Revenue Service sends someone to those islands.

Tariff s custom duty at Port of Entry, if such a country exports an item to US, I don't know what the Trump admin is trying but it is a war with China without naming them, China rerouted products last time through Vietnam, BD etc client states. Slowly exemptions will be given to countries to keep Raw materials from reaching China, China will have to turn to Russia for all supplies, Putin has been blackmailed by the Chinese over the last 3 years giving into thier wishes.

What has started in Ukraine is going to have global implications

[Cyrano]

Gold and silver are exempted too. Fort Knox must have been emptied over the years, need to fill up again.

Once countries give in to the tariffs blackmail Trump will use it to strong arm countries to change their trade and foreign policy as per his whims and fancies. He already hinted at this wrt Russia's trade partners.

All in all, fun times

[Tanaji]

I think its only a matter of time before demands are made that India makes laws “that respect the IPR of US pharma companies”. This has been a long standing complaint of US pharma companies that India eats significantly into their profits with its huge generics industry. Expect sanctions etc on this issue.

It will be suicide for any GoI to accede to this request though. Not just the Opposition, the populace will not let it restrict access to cheap medicines.

[Cyrano]

Saw a sector wise tariffs on India chart somewhere, can't find it now. Can someone post it here for reference please?

Pgurus says software and services exports from India will also be tariffed.

If true , this will not only hit Indian sw companies but also American companies' GCC operations out of India. That will cause lot of heartburn and chaos at both ends. But may also accelerate AI adoption by American companies to cut down a significant portion of the outsourced work. Quite an upheaval it will be.

[A_Gupta]

Reuters reports on speculations of further Trump threats:

".... threatening to turn off the Federal Reserve’s taps for foreign central banks, which allows them to borrow dollars in return for collateral in their own currency, according to Obstfeld and some supervisors and central bankers.

This is an essential source of funding at times of crisis, when money markets seize up and investors retrench to the safety of the dollar.

Taking it away would upset a multi-trillion market for dollar credit outside of the United States and hit banks in Britain, the euro zone and Japan particularly hard."

and

The United States has another ace up its sleeve — its payment giants, including credit card companies Visa and Mastercard.

While Japan and China have to varying degrees developed their own electronic means of payment, the two US firms process two-thirds of card payments made in 20-nation euro zone.

Mobile phone app payments, dominated by US firms such as Apple and Google make up almost one-tenth of retail payments.
...

Were Visa and Mastercard to be pressured into pulling the plug on services, as they did in Russia shortly after it invaded Ukraine, Europeans would have to use cash or cumbersome bank transfers to shop instead.

Dunno India's exposure to the first threat. The second one I think doesn't matter because India has its own digital payments system.

[A_Gupta]

...

Pgurus says software and services exports from India will also be tariffed.

...

"In 2023, the US exported services worth $1.02 trillion, up 8 percent from a year earlier, and imported services for $748.2bn, up 5 percent. That left it with a trade surplus of $278bn, a trend stretching back at least two decades."

Per the source of data that Trump used for the goods tariffs:
https://apps.bea.gov/international/fact ... t.html#000

2024:
US export of services: $1,107.358 billion
US import of services: $812.205 billion
US services trade surplus: $295.154 billion

A tariff war on services would occur if in retaliation for US tariffs on goods, countries with a services trade deficit with the US started applying tariffs on services.

But my guess is that Trump will not seek to upset the apple cart with regard to services where the US is sitting happy.

[A_Gupta]

Per figures of the American government:
https://apps.bea.gov/international/fact ... t.html#612

Services trade, 2024:
US exports to India: $40,264 millons
US imports from India: $40,749 millions

Yes, I am surprised by these numbers, how close to balance it is.
I have not been able to locate a dataset showing India's imports and exports in services by country for 2024.

Added: if we use Trump's formula for goods tariffs, the trade imbalance would result in a tariff of 0.6%, and so would be subject to whatever blanker tariff that Trump imposes, which was 10% in the case of goods.

[A Deshmukh]

If US imposes tariff on services, we can reciprocate with higher duty on Microsoft, Azure, AWS, Youtube/FB/Whatsapp ads, etc and kill their business in India.
US will not be able to live without our service sector, we can replace US SW products within a year.