Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[drnayar]

EU NATO “Sky Shield” over Western part of Ukraine with a force of 120 fighter jets

[youtube]F91-DajniNg[/youtube

wont be exactly good PR for their mil ind complex when they start getting shot down !

[fanne]

but does Russia has the wherewithal? I suspect, any planes on the ground getting destroyed. It is par on course if they are in Ukrain grounds, but what if they fly from NATO country and take on the russian assets/men/etc etc. Will Russia then hit hem in those countries? Is it ww3 then?

[Cyrano]

IMO Russia will give a fair warning that any planes irrespective of where they take off from will risk getting shot down if they enter Russian air space including the 4 oblasts under Russian control.
After that it's up to European countries to decide how far they want to go.
It doesn't look like the warmongers realise what is required to implement an effective sky shield over the rest of Ukraine which is nearly as big a territory as France. The level of ground and airborne radars, integrated command and control required, the communication infra, trained pilots, ground staff, rules of engagement etc. will take years to achieve. They make bellicose statements with zero understanding of reality.

[srai]

EU NATO “Sky Shield” over Western part of Ukraine with a force of 120 fighter jets

[youtube]F91-DajniNg[/youtube

wont be exactly good PR for their mil ind complex when they start getting shot down !

Current plan is focused on Western side of Ukraine … away from the Eastern frontlines. Primarily, to protect cities and critical infrastructure against drones and cruise missiles.

In all likelihood majority of these aircraft will be based in neighboring NATO countries (i.e. Poland, Romania, etc) with Ukrainian airbases acting as forward emergency strips and refueling/re-arming pit stops.

Integrated Air Protection Zone (IAPZ)

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/sky-shield-in ... cond-life/

Frees up Ukrainian forces to concentrate on the frontlines.

[Tanaji]

The US has already stopped support of the loaned F16s.

But the main question is right now how many Russian aircraft are striking that deep into the West where the IAPZ will be? My guess is that due to the profusion of early warning assets of Nato, the answer is either negligible or zero. All deep west attacks are using missiles or drones. Which fighter aircraft are not suited to intercept.

So the IAPF is more like me putting a sign of “Entry of Godzilla strictly prohibited” on India Gate and then claiming my sign has deterred Godzilla..

[srai]

^^^

…
All deep west attacks are using missiles or drones. Which fighter aircraft are not suited to intercept.
…

If you remember Iranian retaliation against Israel, a lot of drones were intercepted by coalition fighter jets.

Here is a recent footage of Mirage-2000 intercepting with MICA AAM a Kh-101 cruise missile over Ukraine.




https://united24media.com/latest-news/u ... ssion-6537

[drnayar]

"I myself sometimes think: maybe the Russian bear should sit quietly, not chase pigs and piglets through the taiga, and just eat berries and honey. Maybe then they will leave him alone? But they will not. They will always try to put the Russian bear on a chain, and once they succeed, they will rip out his teeth and claws. In today’s parlance, this refers to the nuclear deterrent force." - President Putin.


https://x.com/RussiaIsntEnemy/status/18 ... 2590030090

[Cyrano]

No one interested in this war anymore?!

Russian forces display true grit:

[drnayar]

The Russians are very good at electronic warfare. A lot of the American equipment - the Javelin missiles, the HIMARS, the Copperhead, which are guided artillery shells - they only work for a week or two. But the Russians have figured out how to jam navigation or command communications, and all that stuff goes dead.

When you look even at what's happening in Ukraine, first of all, don't listen to the idiot politicians who say that we've destroyed the Russian army. No, we've used up a lot of material. The Russian army has become infinitely smarter. If you shot at a Russian with artillery in March or April 2022, it would take him 1.5 hours to accurately respond. Now it's about 2 minutes. That means if you're shooting at them, you better sit in your car and drive away. Because otherwise they're going to get you.

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1900987087752470952

[drnayar]

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1901306 ... g1eyg&s=19

[Tanaji]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q198zyppqo

If BBC is saying this then it must be truly dire.

[sanjaykumar]

What was expected?

Whoever put the Ukrainians up to attack in the Kursk region has no concept of the role of the Great Patriotic War in the Russian psyche.

[srai]

^^^
It just shows how much of US military aid and intelligence sharing has been key for Ukraine. EU NATO lack capabilities.

As soon as DJT cut off US military aid and intelligence sharing, Ukraine lost pretty quickly.

[Yagnasri]

Kursk, this was lost before it started. Some US-based idiot must have dreamt of some stupid idea like this. The US people do not know about the rest of the world. Nor do they want to know about it without any prejudice. Their idea of the greatest nation in the history of mankind does not allow them.

[Aditya_V]

I somehow feel, Kursk was supposed to capture the Kursk Nuclear Plant and embarrass Putin and show a great victory before the US elections to get Kamala Elected, it was the Political Propaganda rather than military logic which dictated the operation.

Similarly, Zelensky could have just nodded his head and kept quiet in the oval office in front of Camera's but to score points he deliberately started contradicting JD Vance over there.

[Yagnasri]

He did not mischief deliberately. DJT and JD were quite okay with accommodating the idiot. But I think Dems and Eurosum egged him on before the meeting.

[Vayutuvan]

Similarly, Zelensky could have just nodded his head and kept quiet in the oval office in front of Camera's but to score points he deliberately started contradicting JD Vance over there.

It seems Zelensky wanted press folks in there. DJT and JDV assented to show that this guy is not reliable as he doesn't keep his word.

[Tanaji]

Putin has agreed to a stop on attacks on energy sector. This is going to lead to a ceasefire and eventually a stop of US aid.

The disappointment of Euros and especially UK is palpable

[Tanaji]

What was expected?

Whoever put the Ukrainians up to attack in the Kursk region has no concept of the role of the Great Patriotic War in the Russian psyche.

The entire events leading to the war was brainless hubris and egoistic thinking on part of VN and acolytes and Baniansky an even greater fool for allowing himself to be led down the path of war. The assumption that Russia could be pushed indefinitely and ultimately splintered was without basis. Still, the US has gotten a weakened Russia at the cost of $150B and without firing a shot on its own.

[Manish_P]

...Still, the US has gotten a weakened Russia at the cost of $150B and without firing a shot on its own.

And an uppity Europe running scared and cut down to size...

[srai]

Germany going to invest $500 billion in defense

[Yagnasri]

From where they are going to get this 500 B $ money? Most of their industry is now in deep red. The economy is not good overall. Social spending can not be cut. So, from where will this money come?

[gakakkad]

^ it's over 10 years and totally defense expenditure not 500 b of capex. Comes to 50 b a year. Honestly it's peanuts .

[srai]

Ukraine planes to produce over 100K of long range munitions

Ukraine’s Upgraded Neptune Missile Now Strikes 1,000 km—Built in Record Time

…
Most countries don’t have long-range cruise missiles like this. Ukraine built the 1,000-km Neptune in just three years.
…
Neptune’s 1,000-km evolution

During the development of the enhanced Neptune, President Zelenskyy hinted that Ukraine was working on a missile capable of striking Russian military targets at a distance of 1,000 km. This objective was driven by two key strategic reasons:

Deterrence and response: Ukraine needed a weapon capable of responding symmetrically to Russian missile strikes. A missile with this range would allow Ukraine to target military airfields, ammunition depots, troop concentrations, logistics hubs, and other key military sites.

Reducing reliance on foreign aid: Long-range weaponry would lessen Ukraine’s dependence on Western-supplied missiles, enabling Kyiv and its military command to select targets without restrictions imposed by international partners. For instance, Russian forces have long launched attacks on Kharkiv from its Belgorod region, but restrictions on using foreign-supplied weapons against military targets on Russian territory have limited Ukraine’s ability to neutralize the S-300 and S-400 missile systems used in these strikes.
…

[srai]

Ukrainian Brave1 (incubator of Defense Tech) … something for GoI MoD procurement bureaucracy to emulate

Ukraine has the capacity to produce 4.5 million/year UAV and FPV drones.

Inside Brave1, the Tech Hub Powering Ukraine’s Battlefield Innovations

While Russia holds the advantage in manpower and equipment, Ukraine is fighting not with scale, but with technology — a strategy on full display in the Black Sea, where naval drones have forced Russia’s fleet into retreat. At the center of this effort is Brave1, a government-backed hub designed to find, fund, and fast-track defense tech.

…

It became clear that Ukraine had fewer tanks, less artillery, and fewer infantry fighting vehicles than Russia. Victory, therefore, required ingenuity. Ukraine turned to technology to compensate where it lacked soldiers or armored vehicles. This gave rise to FPV drones — a game-changer on the front lines. In the Black Sea, unmanned naval drones played a similar role, helping to effectively push Russia’s fleet out of the region.

The state does not create technology but can foster its development by funding research and development and placing orders to scale production. To guide entrepreneurs and engineers toward the right support channels, Ukraine established a centralized platform — a defense cluster for Defense Tech companies called Brave1. It launched operations in 2023.

Brave1 serves several key functions:

Providing a platform where developers can showcase their technological solutions.

Enabling soldiers to assess these solutions, provide feedback, and help adapt them to battlefield needs based on their own experience.

Offering grants ranging from 500,000 hryvnias ($12,000) to 8 million hryvnias (around $200,000), allowing teams to refine their products.

Assisting with testing.

Supporting scaling efforts.

Connecting developers with investors interested in funding product development.

The core idea of Brave1 is to unite developers, the military, investors, and the state in one place. A high-quality product can quickly receive a grant for refinement, get direct feedback from the military, undergo certification, receive government orders, and be officially adopted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces — all through a clear, streamlined process.

Is Brave1 delivering results?

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, the concept of Defense Tech was virtually unknown in Ukraine, and drone manufacturers could be counted on one hand.

Today, Brave1 boasts 1,500 companies and more than 3,500 projects. In its first year, the cluster awarded $3.2 million in grants. By 2024, that figure grew tenfold — to over $30 million. The plan for 2025 is even more ambitious — nearly $70 million.

However, what matters most is not the amount of funding, but what it has achieved. Brave1 has facilitated the creation of robotic platforms and helped drone and UAV manufacturers scale their operations.

Electronic warfare (EW) systems offer a clear example of Brave1’s impact. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine had only a handful of EW systems, far inferior to Russia’s in quality. In 2023, Brave1 launched a dedicated development track for EW capabilities. To date, 240 projects have passed through the cluster. So when Ukraine’s Air Defense reports that “57 Shaheds were lost from radar,” it is partly thanks to solutions developed through Brave1.

Brave1 has now entered a new phase, supporting missile system development. In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated its capability to produce long-range missiles domestically, such as Palianytsia, Peklo, Ruta, and others. The goal for 2025 is to scale production significantly, aiming to manufacture 3,000 long-range missiles. The program for manufacturers has already begun within Brave1, allowing teams with ideas to apply for development grants.

The cluster’s significance lies in being the sole support platform for Defense Tech innovations. Engineers or entrepreneurs who develop a drone or missile no longer need to waste time searching for an institution willing to review their work — they simply register on the website and submit an application.

Brave1 also plays a crucial role in engaging the international community, particularly investors. Several times a year, the cluster organizes special events showcasing Ukraine’s best technological solutions and the companies producing them. In 2024, official figures show the sector attracted $59 million in investments — only $40 million of that from government grants, with the remainder coming from private investments. The goal for 2025 is to double those numbers.

By uniting the community, the cluster serves not only individual engineers or developers but also the state itself. When Ukraine identifies a specific need, it can announce: “We need a solution to this problem. If you know how to solve it — come to us. We will fund you, and if testing is successful, we’ll place an order.”

…

This approach has led to the emergence of entirely new sectors and products within Ukraine. At the same time, by engaging with the community, the government can identify bottlenecks hindering progress in specific areas and remove them. This has already happened in the drone sector: repealing dozens of outdated legislative restrictions allowed two dozen manufacturers to scale their production. In turn, this fosters competition, lowers prices for the state, and improves product quality.

Most importantly, the government does not monopolize the sector or slow decision-making. Instead, it collaborates with agile players, facilitates access to capital, and places orders for the best solutions.

To revisit the question of whether the idea worked, one figure speaks volumes: today, Ukrainian manufacturers have the capacity to produce 4.5 million various UAVs and FPV drones annually. At the start of 2024, many doubted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plan to produce 1 million drones could become a reality.

[srai]

Estonian THeMIS, a smart combat robot, being tested in Ukraine. A major RMA occurring world over. 1/3 of US army will be robotic in 15-years.

For frontline troops, UGVs – or uncrewed ground vehicles – are the future and have become commonplace on the battlefield.

One has already been utilised by Ukraine and is being put to work by Kyiv's military – namely THeMIS, one of the most advanced UGVs out there.

Developed in Estonia, 15 THeMIS have already seen action in Ukraine, transporting ammunition and supplies and evacuating injured soldiers.

[srai]

Ukraine’s reorganization into Corps structure (with 5 to 7 brigades each) … with its most effective brigade centered at the heart of each Corp.

18 Army Corps planned

…
Here, the elite Third Assault Brigade underwent a massive upgrade, transforming into a full-fledged army corps, already leading to massively successful counterattacks and gains. This dramatic upgrade, bolstering its combined arms and offensive capabilities with up to 20,000 new soldiers, promises to reshape the balance in the Kupiansk and Borova directions.

The Ukrainian General Staff recently completed the restructuring of the elite Third Assault Brigade into the new and improved Third Army Corps, which consists of five times as many troops and equipment, under the leadership of Andriy Biletsky. This will combine five existing brigades under a single command structure, where they all operate as one large body, with the Third Assault Brigade making up the core of the corps.
…
Expanding the Third Assault Brigade into a Corps increases its force from 4,000 to up to 20,000 soldiers. Now operating under a unified Third Army Corps command, five brigades will coordinate more effectively than they could as independent ones. Previously, brigades were Ukraine’s highest military structure, each operating with distinct doctrines, tactics, and logistical needs, which limited operational flexibility. This corps-level integration streamlines command, enhances coordination, and improves the effectiveness of large-scale operations.

Beyond the new Third Army Corps, Ukraine is restructuring its military into 18 individual army corps, unifying five to seven brigades under a single command, covering extensive frontlines dozens of kilometers wide and deep. Each integrating intelligence, logistics, and specialized support units, the corps enhances firepower and flexibility by assigning dedicated artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and engineering units. With up to 20,000 personnel and 900 heavy vehicles, corps headquarters will be able to directly control front sectors and coordinate large-scale operations more effectively than independent brigades can.

The new Corps commanders benefit from superior communication and shared intelligence, enabling rapid decision-making, large-scale offensive and defensive operations, and rapid, precise responses, sending reinforcements to locations where they are most necessary. This structure turns localized engagements into coordinated operations, maximizing battlefield impact and advancing strategic objectives.

Specifically, this allowed the Ukrainian forces to eliminate several weaknesses Russians were exploiting to great effect. For example, in the Borova sector, Russians exploited the individualistic nature of the Ukrainian brigade structure to overwhelm one brigade, while launching attacks to pin down others and find gaps in the area of responsibility between two brigades. This allowed them to greatly expand their funnel to the Oskil River at Pischane to the south. These weaknesses are now eliminated, and the Ukrainian frontline will form a much more solid line of defense for Russians to expend their reserves against. Notably, this massive reorganization took several months, as it had to be conducted under constant Russian offensive pressure, without cohesion falling apart, which in the end was done successfully. Now that the reorganization has been completed, Ukraine is fielding many more combat-ready army corps, which severely complicates any future Russian efforts.

Overall, the Ukrainians successfully restructured the third assault and surrounding brigades into the new Third Army Corps. This is already yielding success, as Russians have not advanced in any direction within the new third army corps' area of responsibility, while Ukrainians have successfully conducted a test of their new capabilities. Further results of the restructuring will be visible in the future, as the new Third Assault Corps have yet to conduct more extensive operations. The new leadership will now first focus on integrating the existing other brigades into their doctrine, train them, and prepare for new, and much larger, operations than we have seen...
…

[srai]

Future is with Multi-spectrum camouflage

[RamSuresh]

Perhaps they are invisible because there are not many left?

[srai]

Perhaps they are invisible because there are not many left?

Question: If that is the case (of only a few Ukrainian defenders left), how come the Russians are not at the Polish borders by now?

Are you also implying there are not many Russians left too

[Cyrano]

Srai ji,
You are perhaps assuming Russian objective is to conquer territory, whereas from the Day 1 of SMO, they have clearly stated its demilitarisation of Ukraine. Its been discussed to death in this threads since over 3 years now.

So, according to you, is AFU gaining lost territory? Has better eqiuipment and better troops? Are they winning in this conflict by not only pushing RU forces out of the four oblasts but taking RU territory? Do you consider Kursk incursion/occupation as a military victory as things stand now?

I thought you had a military background, perhaps I was mistaken.

[Manish_P]

Ghost of Kyivs, Baba Yagas of Kursk and what nots

Everyone pushing their preferred narrative.

Long ways to go yet before the dust settles on the steppes...

[srai]

Cyrano,

I haven’t said anything. What you are saying is by yourself

[srai]

Quite an in-depth article on how much the US has been involved in Ukraine.

Basically, US has been enmeshed deeply in the “kill chain”.

The Secret History of the War in Ukraine

…
Yet to trace its history is to better understand how the Ukrainians were able to survive across three long years of war, in the face of a far larger, far more powerful enemy. It is also to see, through a secret keyhole, how the war came to today’s precarious place.

With remarkable transparency, the Pentagon has offered a public inventory of the $66.5 billion array of weaponry supplied to Ukraine — including, at last count, more than a half-billion rounds of small-arms ammunition and grenades, 10,000 Javelin antiarmor weapons, 3,000 Stinger antiaircraft systems, 272 howitzers, 76 tanks, 40 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 20 Mi-17 helicopters and three Patriot air defense batteries.

But a New York Times investigation reveals that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.

One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.

…

[rkhanna]

Quite an in-depth article on how much the US has been involved in Ukraine.

Basically, US has been enmeshed deeply in the “kill chain”.

The Secret History of the War in Ukraine


One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.

…

A good summary of the above:

https://the307.substack.com/p/new-york- ... irect=true

[Cyrano]

While this admission is welcome, there is nothing new for those who have been following alternative media channels. US military officers, intelligence officers and staff, CIA and state department staff were actively involved since 2014.

US National Guards and other army units trained AFU battalions for years. So did the British, French and other NATO countries.

Many hundreds if not thousands of ex soldiers from NATO countries were sent into Ukraine as mercenaries. And so we're hundreds of officers and technical experts in service to plan and execute one disastrous offensive after another. They died for nothing in the bowels of Mariupol steel plant, in Kherson, Kharkiv, Lviv, Kramatorsk, and all across the front line.

Shamefully, their deaths are not even acknowledged by the NATO countries. In many cases they are just classified as missing in action, no bodies recovered, no funeral, no memorials.

What a bloody and totally unnecessary tragedy.

[Cyrano]

^^^Thank you for posting the summary. The NYT article is behind a pay wall.

The Duran has as usual an excellent analysis of it.

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/04/uk ... inter.html

My latest blog post on the war, summarizing operations of the last 3 months and validating the numbers around my earlier assumptions.

[Cyrano]

I've listened to this witness 2 years ago on French TV channels, his testimony on bucha was exactly the same. He was targeted by french intelligence operatives and he fled ultimately as asylum seeker to Russia after attemps were made on his life in Turkey.

[srai]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/189 ... -39-sdb%2F

Low pass by a Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Fighting Falcon on a strike mission.

Armed with 8x GBU-39 SDB glide bombs, 1x AIM-9X Sidewinder, 1x AIM-9L Sidewinder, and 2x AIM-120C AMRAAMs.