China-Taiwan Conflict: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Rakesh]

I have created this thread because such a war is definitely on the cards and would be good to game out possible Chinese military strategies to take over Taiwan. Please use this thread to also game out scenarios of what an allied task force would do to stop such a Chinese invasion. What happens in Taiwan can certainly be reproduced by China against India. Please provide any thoughts you may have on that as well.

Let me start off thread with this letter, dated 08 May 2024, that has been drafted and signed by 12 members of the US Congress and one member of the US Senate. It is addressed to the US Secretary of the Navy and US Secretary of the Air Force. I will leave the decision to dhoti shiver (or not!) up to you

This first post is a LONG one, as it reproduces the entire letter. Thanks to BRF Member (AshishA), we have an official Govt Twitter account that confirms the letter is authentic. That letter is the one reproduced below. If you do not have the time to read through the entire letter, then read the next post which summarizes all the points in the letter.

https://x.com/committeeonccp/status/1788315497672446093 --->

[Rakesh]

Moolenaar, Rubio, Lawmakers Warn About Pentagon's 'Alarming Lack of Urgency'
to Address Indo-Pacific U.S. Bases Vulnerability
https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.g ... cy-address
08 May 2024

Image Source: https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/1791035870210085350 --->

[Deans]

I think this is a very timely thread. Time will prove if BRF was ahead of the curve when it came to a China-Taiwan war.

The US has wargamed this numerous times. Here is one link:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... n-in-2026/

CSIS is the premier think tank in these matters. While the US is able to resist a simulated Chinese invasion, the cost is increasingly higher over time.
There is no wargame done for a conflict short of outright war e.g. a PLA blockade of Taiwan.

[Pratyush]

A few years ago I started thinking about the capacity required by the PRC in order to successfully take Taiwan.

Once I realised what PRC will need to do that. I pretty much had the same reaction the letter conveys. But from an Indian POV.

Because the capacity PRC will need to successfully take Taiwan. Will also be useful in their efforts to wrest Arunachal Pradesh. Unless the Indian Air force capacity is increased 3 to 4 times of its current strength.

But the saving grace from the Indian POV is that moment is at least 20 years ago.

[sanman]

China won't invade Taiwan, unless...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJ-YZFlev1s

[AshishA]

Please use this link. I think this is from the official x account. The twitter account listed in the first post appears to a CCP propagandist.

https://x.com/committeeonccp/status/1788315497672446093

[Rakesh]

Please use this link. I think this is from the official x account. The twitter account listed in the first post appears to a CCP propagandist.

https://x.com/committeeonccp/status/1788315497672446093

Thank You so much for this Ashish. I will change the link.

[Rakesh]

Yes, Japan Will Defend Taiwan
https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/yes-jap ... nd-taiwan/
18 May 2024

'https://x.com/Joel_P_Atkinson/status/17 ... 0728056195 ---> A PLA officer training manual titled “Japanese Air Self-Defense Force” minced no words about how Beijing understands Taiwan’s strategic value to Japan. It stated: "As soon as Taiwan is reunified with Mainland China, Japan’s maritime lines of communication will fall completely within the striking ranges of China’s fighters and bombers… Japan’s economic activity and war-making potential will be basically destroyed… blockades can cause sea shipments to decrease and can even create a famine within the Japanese islands."

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1792497900188037551 ---> Everyone needs to read this. Kudos to @FT. This is not behind a paywall and worth your time and attention.

The battlegrounds that could decide a US-China war over Taiwan
https://ig.ft.com/taiwan-battlegrounds/
19 May 2024

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/DryBulkETF/status/1792915443327390201 ---> Something odd is happening in China's iron ore market: In the last 12 months, inventory levels are up marginally (~15mt), yet the difference between iron ore supplied and iron ore used is up a staggering 158mt. For context, the ~140mt of "missing" iron ore represents the industry size of all EU and Middle East combined! Where is all this iron ore?

Tweet below is in reply to the Tweet above ^^^^

https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1792968340748620266 --->

Stockpiling copper
Stockpiling iron
Stockpiling food
Stockpiling energy

This is how you prepare for moving on Taiwan.

[Rakesh]

Japan cannot afford a global alliance with the U.S.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Japan-c ... th-the-U.S
22 May 2024

[AshishA]

https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/1791035870210085350 --->

Please update this link at the start of the second post with their document from official website.
https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.g ... cy-address

[sanman]

China carries out "punishment" drills around Taiwan

[Rakesh]

Please update this link at the start of the second post with their document from official website.
https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.g ... cy-address

I have updated the second post as well. Thank you so much for this help. Greatly appreciated.

[Rakesh]

Click on link below to read the thread...

https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1793492050681471401 ----> Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions. Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1793492050681471401 ----> Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions. Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates.

https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1793926740919627916 ---> China has now surrounded Taiwan in all directions. CCTV on mainland China has interviewed a senior Chinese military official who explained that Taiwan is an ‘isolated island’ with ‘weak self-sufficiency’. Given Taiwan’s reliance on fuel imports, he said the CCP can make it a ‘dead island’ once it’s ‘besieged and blockaded’. Key months for amphibious invasion are April, May, and August. It seems Xi’s plans are on-track for an invasion sooner than most are expecting.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1793864597897953484 ---> Video from PLA Eastern Theater Command showing simulated joint strikes on Taiwan.

[Rakesh]

Click on link below to read the thread...

https://x.com/JaimeOcon1/status/1793571267624267796 ---> BREAKING: Taiwan's military releases more details on China's Joint Sword 2024A exercises, including a map. 42 Chinese military aircraft were reported around Taiwan, 28 crossing the median line. 15 Navy ship, 16 Coast Guard ships.

[rajkumar]

Chinese state TV primes the public for war with Taiwan

https://x.com/SamRamani2/status/1793993056980795461

[AshishA]

Chinese state TV primes the public for war with Taiwan

https://x.com/SamRamani2/status/1793993056980795461

That's some hilariously bad animation.

[Rakesh]

China Says Taiwan Independence Backers Will Be ‘Left With Their Heads Broken’ As It Conducts Military Drills
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... ry-drills/
23 May 2024

[sanjaykumar]

That’s what is endearing about China. The urbanity.

[S_Madhukar]

Does US have a plan to counter a Taiwan blockade ? Not sure it will be sufficient to do a post WW2 Berlin style airlift specially for fuel. Chicoms will keep doing exercise + blockade for months.

[sanman]

Does US have a plan to counter a Taiwan blockade ? Not sure it will be sufficient to do a post WW2 Berlin style airlift specially for fuel. Chicoms will keep doing exercise + blockade for months.

Besides China having a manufacturing base 5X larger than USA's, China also has a shipbuilding capacity that is 200X larger than USA's.

If China ramps up its military ship-building (heck, even its civilian ship-building), then I don't see how USA would be able to break such a blockade.

I notice American planners keep talking about drones as their techno-magical band-aid solution. It feels like wishful thinking.

[AshishA]

Looks like China's Propagandist in chief is the one handling Taiwan affairs and steering the current takeover attempts.
Wang Huning.
He's in charge of Taiwan matters just below Xi Jinping. His official position is CCP Central Leading Small Group for Taiwan Work. Some points that I have been able to glean off the internet.

1. Kuomintang party and the others are trying to introduce a law that will curtail the powers of the president. Even though President Lai is from DPP, Kuomintang and TPP control the legislature. Both Kuomintang and TPP are CCP's lackeys.

2. China wants a takeover of Taiwan like it happened in case of Hong Kong. Through legislature and through their lackeys. They also want minimal spilling of blood. Keeping that in mind, Wang Huning met the Kuomintang members recently where there was a tacit understanding to improve cross strait relations aka dilute national security laws for takeover of Taiwan one day.

3. But for that to happen, they have to curtail the powers of the President while increasing the powers of the legislature. Cuz they haven't been able to get their president pick (a Chinese lackey) for quite some time. They want to do this as fast as possible instead of going through discussions so that they can circumvent the protests that are starting now and present it to the public as a fait accompli. Just the way it happened in Hong Kong.

4. The KMT imho is definitely gearing up towards some handing over Taiwan to CCP by passing laws after they have curtailed the President's power. According to what I read from translated Taiwanese sites, Wang guy has come up with the one country two systems scam and asked the KMT to force it on Taiwanese people if convincing doesn't work. After that is passed, they gonna try the same trick that they used in Hong Kong. Subvert the one country two systems to pass some phony national security acts essentially exercising de facto control over Taiwan.

5. It's easier said than done but everyone has already forgotten Hong Kong, who's to say same won't happen with Taiwan too? I fear the takeover might happen without a single bullet being fired.

[Rakesh]

Click on link below for twitter thread....

https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1795281034390696392 ---> Japan intercepts Chinese WL-10 recon/attack/EW drone for the first time. On 27 May 2024, Japanese fighters monitored the UAV over the East China Sea. Flight path indicates ISR along the Okinawa prefecture & southwest islands, home to PAC-3 missile systems, & toward Kadena Air Base.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1800413632041242830 ---> Hope State Dept has COMINDOPAC’s back? The 1954 Sino-US Defence pact was scrapped in 1979, as quid pro quo with Beijing and replaced by the Taiwan Relations Act which deals only with “commercial & cultural” issues. Even 2019 TAIPEI Act covers only diplomatic issues. And “One China”?

[Rakesh]

^^^ Above is from this WaPo article. And for all the folks who believe that the Taiwan war will be a long drawn out affair, see quote below...

This same "long drawn out war" theory was applied by the MUTUs on BRF, in a future Indo-China war. China's MIC is so large, that only a Military Alliance with Amreeka will provide India with victory, due to an unlimited supply of US weapons to fight the Chinese ---> "Each time a US-origin fighter (i.e. F-16) is shot down, the US Govt will provide one from its own stocks."

The U.S. military plans a ‘Hellscape’ to deter China from attacking Taiwan
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... tary-plan/
10 June 2024

China’s likely strategy is to overwhelm Taiwan with a massive attack with little warning, Paparo said. Xi doesn’t want to repeat Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mistake in Ukraine in 2022, when Russia’s initial full-scale invasion failed and devolved into a long war of attrition.

[Lisa]

^ https://archive.ph/pQyM6

[Rakesh]

^ https://archive.ph/pQyM6

Thanks Lisa. Greatly appreciated.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1820341142044725588 ---> Taiwan released a 17-minute trailer for the upcoming 10-episode TV series 'Zero Day Attack' to prepare the population for a Chinese invasion.

[Rakesh]

Type 76 LHD ---> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_076_ ... opter_dock

China’s enormous new invasion mothership is rewriting the rules of war. Look out, Taiwan
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/0 ... ip-taiwan/
07 Aug 2024

Massive vessel will have catapult jets, a fleet of helicopters and swimming tanks

[Pratyush]

Yeah, I had posted analysis of this ship on the PRC military thread.

A hand full of theses ships is not going to cut it. They will need a lot more roll on-roll off ships. Then they currently posess.

But alternatively, once the PRC gains that capacity. I expect that the Taiwan will seek peaceful integration with PRC.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1860479241055318257 ---> New details from Admiral Paparo on Chinese PLA military operations around Taiwan:

“Over the summer, I saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the PRC—with the widest geography, the joint-est operations for air, missile, maritime power—that I’d seen over an entire career.”

• 152 vessels at sea, including 3/4 of the amphibious force
• 43 brigades “breaching obstacles, onward movement to military ops in urban terrain”
• 2 major demonstrations of military power in May and October (exercise Joint Sword A and
• Longest-ranging geographic air and maritime cooperative exercise between China and Russia

“This was the largest rehearsal as we’ve seen on an upward trajectory of PLA modernization and joint rehearsal, as the PLA continues to enhance and improve its military capabilities.”

VIDEO: https://x.com/CarlZha/status/1860187203823108497 ---> A moment of honesty from the US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo after talks of turning Taiwan Strait into "hellscape" for the Chinese:

“You gonna need air & maritime superiority to sustain our forces in Okinawa… HOW AM I GOING TO DO THAT?”

[Rakesh]

Full video of the above ^^^ post...

A conversation with Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1866292256837124538 ---> General Smith: “The advantage lies with us because our last combat was captured on somebody’s iPhone 14. The Chinese’ last combat was captured on oil and canvas, and they should not forget that. I would not undersell the value that our combat experience brings to this fight.”

[Rakesh]

China Will Launch an Invasion of Taiwan In Next Few Months: Intel Sources
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/chi ... l-sources/
04 April 2025

Intel sources who have spoken to 19FortyFive state that they believe an attempt by China to invade Taiwan is no less than six months away.

[Rakesh]

Please click on the link below to read the rest of the Twitter thread...

https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1909018510090469880 ----> Last week, Chinese warships encircled Taiwan & carried out Strait Thunder-2025A — the PLA’s first major military exercise of the year. The rehearsals featured a blockade on key areas, long-range live-fire missile drills, & carrier ops to the east.

[Hriday]

The Taiwanese-controlled island closest to mainland China is Kinmen (also known as Quemoy), situated a mere 10 kilometers (6 miles) east of Xiamen in Fujian province. The Taiwanese-controlled Matsu Islands are roughly 10 miles from mainland China.

All the public information shows that Chinese takeover attempt on Taiwan is not very far. But considering that war will likely involves USA also, one would think that Chinese would like to test/study the responses by taking over atleast a small island controlled by Taiwan.

If China announces take over of one these island what will be the response from Taiwan and USA? Will they risk all out war?

For some background information it is worth to look into the statement by Deans and Suraj's reply to it. It is not directly related to this thread. So I am only giving the link below.
viewtopic.php?p=2150667#p2150667

[rajkumar]

The Taiwanese-controlled island closest to mainland China is Kinmen (also known as Quemoy), situated a mere 10 kilometers (6 miles) east of Xiamen in Fujian province. The Taiwanese-controlled Matsu Islands are roughly 10 miles from mainland China.

All the public information shows that Chinese takeover attempt on Taiwan is not very far. But considering that war will likely involves USA also, one would think that Chinese would like to test/study the responses by taking over atleast a small island controlled by Taiwan.

If China announces take over of one these island what will be the response from Taiwan and USA? Will they risk all out war?

For some background information it is worth to look into the statement by Deans and Suraj's reply to it. It is not directly related to this thread. So I am only giving the link below.
viewtopic.php?p=2150667#p2150667

PRC will not touch Quemoy or Matsu unless it is as a part of a full scale invasion of Taiwan. No point in letting your adversaries get advance warning of your intentions.