Understanding the US - Again

[Tanaji]

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/docume ... System.pdf

paper authored in Nov 2024 by the current Chief Economic Advisor to Trump

Explains the thinking behind the current tariff moves and also their end game- how to bring back manufacturing to the US while ensuring that the USD retains its status as the world's reserve currency

Hope this is of interest

Thanks Adrija ji. I was about to ask the same question as to who is advising Trump on these moves as it is unlikely he has come up with this high risk strategy himself

[krithivas]

^^^
https://youtu.be/9A5qjS680mk?si=OY9BMGemmgkcrdrf
This video does a good job of describing the “theory” behind the market pandemonium. The Mar-e-Lago accord. The intent is to spur manufacturing, weaken the dollar and pay-for-protection.

[Vayutuvan]

Thanks Adrija ji. I was about to ask the same question as to who is advising Trump on these moves as it is unlikely he has come up with this high risk strategy himself

Author's bio

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist
Stephen Miran is Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital. Previously, Dr. Miran served as senior advisor for economic policy at the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, where he assisted with fiscal policy during the pandemic recession. Prior to Treasury, Dr. Miran worked for a
decade as an investment professional. Dr. Miran is also an economics fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. He received a
Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and a B.A. from Boston University.

If one believes that credentials are an indication of intellect, this man is no lightweight.

[Cyrano]

Oh jeez, what was that quote again about being America's friend?

India holds some 650 B$ of Forex. I'm guessing about half of it in USD, and the rest in € and various other currencies. Since we are not an ally we will not be pressured first. But what if the US says we will give you tech like jet engines or nuclear tech but you have to buy our 100yr zero coupon bonds?

We had a forumite called vina who was quite knowledgeable in these things. Is he around?

[Vayutuvan]

On top of that, the US can freeze assets anytime they want.

We will know in oh about 6 months whether Trump would get impeached and removed. No need to wait till midterms.

[Mort Walker]

Oh jeez, what was that quote again about being America's friend?

India holds some 650 B$ of Forex. I'm guessing about half of it in USD, and the rest in € and various other currencies. Since we are not an ally we will not be pressured first. But what if the US says we will give you tech like jet engines or nuclear tech but you have to buy our 100yr zero coupon bonds?

We had a forumite called vina who was quite knowledgeable in these things. Is he around?

vina has been permanently banned some years ago. However, he's on X and I've interacted with him.

[Vayutuvan]

vina has been permanently banned some years ago. However, he's on X and I've interacted with him.

Mort ji, tell him I found out the etymology of the word "whampum".
Seriously, I did. In a recent SF book The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O. by Neal Stephenson and Nicole Galland.

[Cyrano]

What's his X handle Mort Ji? Thanks!

[bala]

This is an interesting take by PGurus, take it for what it is worth.

youtube.com/watch?v=VcItg4qMC6A

stock crashing, grocery prices coming down, interest rates, treasury notes, tariffs..

[chetak]

Thanks Adrija ji. I was about to ask the same question as to who is advising Trump on these moves as it is unlikely he has come up with this high risk strategy himself

Author's bio

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist
Stephen Miran is Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital. Previously, Dr. Miran served as senior advisor for economic policy at the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, where he assisted with fiscal policy during the pandemic recession. Prior to Treasury, Dr. Miran worked for a
decade as an investment professional. Dr. Miran is also an economics fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. He received a
Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and a B.A. from Boston University.

If one believes that credentials are an indication of intellect, this man is no lightweight.

Vayutuvan ji,



this is not a personal comment.


some t shirted, flip flop wearing, and pajama sporting "credentialed" (UK oxbridge or what ever dog and pony show she claims to have attended) guys talk through their hats, while others, even more credentialed, talked through their raincoats. the famiglia and their major domos brought India to its nadir. They were all lightweights, and are still lightweights onlee ...

what you see, is often not what you get, so beware when you say "credentials are an indication of intellect" and yes, one noticed the caveat.

It's a sword that cuts both ways

BTW, is trumpwa credentialed ... any yet, he has confounded all, been elected president three times, and turned the world topsy turvy.

and the completely unnerved governments from around the world are all fearful about what's coming down the turnpike, the very next morning, not even leaving them enough time to reach for the comfort and solace of applying Preparation H liberally

the effing germans and the uppity euros who once ridiculed and laughed at him, are now bereft of tears and cannot even cry and no one even cares what they think

personally, one would say that trumpwa is definitely "credentialed" but in a disruptive way, just like a cyclone feeling it's oats

[chetak]

This is an interesting take by PGurus, take it for what it is worth.

youtube.com/watch?v=VcItg4qMC6A

stock crashing, grocery prices coming down, interest rates, treasury notes, tariffs..

bala saar,

there is a definite method to his madness, a certain deftness, and coordination that excludes randomness, and multiple targets that are being hit simultaneously, and one doesn't mean countries but agenda and objectives

one thinks that they are working to a gameplan

Some things are confounding at this time: the identity of "they", the connect, if any, between the targets, and the "gameplan"

[chanakyaa]

<<on a second thought, bit speculative, will wait for some more data>>

[vijayk]

https://x.com/aravind/status/1806580128304210191

2:47 AM · Jun 28, 2024

Many geopolitical experts and seasoned analysts believe Trump won't be president again.

However, I've consistently maintained that he will indeed be the next President of America backed by the US deep state.

In reality, Donald J. Trump's presidency will transform him into a new entity – Deepstate Joe Trump. He'll implement decisions that may seem eccentric to outsiders but are actually driven by the deep state's agenda.

These actions will likely shock US allies and push the boundaries of what they thought was possible in international relations by the US. Of course, all the radical policies will be blamed on Trump's character.

One development that is sure to happen is an end to the Russia-Ukraine war early 2025, with Ukraine getting a bad deal ceding territory to Russia. Again, this will be called Trump's bad dealmaking, but the deep state will get this done to focus on China.

A renewed economic war will be launched by the US in 2025 aimed at destabilizing China.

This economic war may not just include sanctions. It could involve a manufactured recession to severely impact China's exports, weaken its economy, and undermine the CCP. Naturally, all such economic trouble would be attributed to Trump's policies.

Such economic crisis will further pressure China to engage in conflicts to manage social unrest blaming the 'foreign devil.' This is end goal of the US deep state: To inflict severe economic harm and instigate China into a conflict, like Russia in Ukraine, and weaken it considerably.

India must remain vigilant against this new iteration of Deepstate Joe Trump. His administration will not resemble its previous form, and India can expect increased heat and threats emanating from the US deep state under his watch.

Not only that, an economically weakened China will be compelled to create conflict with India, to blame it for its economic issues back home, rather than Taiwan, Japan, or the Phillipines - all US allies.

[saip]

It used to be that the weighted average of Indian tariffs was 12% on US goods and the weighted average on US tariffs was 2% on Indian goods. Now that changed to 12% and 28% (2+26 is my assumption correct?) with imposition of Trump's 26% so called reciprocal tariffs on Indian imports.
Reuters

[bala]

there is a definite method to his madness, a certain deftness, and coordination that excludes randomness, and multiple targets that are being hit simultaneously, and one doesn't mean countries but agenda and objectives

one thinks that they are working to a gameplan

Some things are confounding at this time: the identity of "they", the connect, if any, between the targets, and the "gameplan"

Chetak saar, there is a definite plan being executed and the fall out is having major conseqences. All make believe pretenses are being shown for what their worth is in real terms. The land of China is reeling massively and the tariffs will send them back to the stone age. Already there are reports that 400 B worth of their junk maal, including electric autos are piling up, Russia slapped $7500 per vehicle for re-cycling charge on chinese autos. China is desperate to unload their crap onto the world. BTW the chinese have 68 sq km of warehouses which retains 40% of production at any time.

DJT is also firing many high profile dudes in the US govt - e.g. NSA director handling cyber security, etc, the HHS is gutted, the EDU dept too. The system is being turned upside down and no one knows what is next. The eCONomists/media/talking heads have all slammed DJT. Only 8% of population of US plays in stock market, the rest don't have an idea. Those entities that were importing China goods are at quandry - Walmart, Etsy, etc, Dem States like Kalifornia, Washington (Seattle), NY and the deep state behind are at a loss. All the taps have been turned of - Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia and so on. The Asian wonder nations were also importing china maal and are now stuck. China is literally in a bonfire state and Stroke struck Emperor may resort to a global war.

[A_Gupta]

Per US trade figures (the same govt source Trump used for computing his Reciprocal tariffs):
https://apps.bea.gov/international/fact ... t.html#341
2024, good trade:
Russian exports to the US: $3.016 billion
Russian imports from the US: $0.665 billion
US trade deficit = 2.351
Reciprocal tariff rate = 2.351/(2 * 3.016) * 100% = 38.98% --> 39%

All things being equal, Trump should have announced a Reciprocal Tariff rate of 39% on Russia.
Of course, Trump has not announced any tariffs on Russia, apparently not even the base 10% tariff.
The White House says because there are already sanctions on Russia. (e.g., https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump- ... t6nGqasBW5 )
But there are already deeper and more longstanding sanctions on Iran, and Trump announced a 10% tariff on Iran.

[chetak]

there is a definite method to his madness, a certain deftness, and coordination that excludes randomness, and multiple targets that are being hit simultaneously, and one doesn't mean countries but agenda and objectives

one thinks that they are working to a gameplan

Some things are confounding at this time: the identity of "they", the connect, if any, between the targets, and the "gameplan"

Chetak saar, there is a definite plan being executed and the fall out is having major conseqences. All make believe pretenses are being shown for what their worth is in real terms. The land of China is reeling massively and the tariffs will send them back to the stone age. Already there are reports that 400 B worth of their junk maal, including electric autos are piling up, Russia slapped $7500 per vehicle for re-cycling charge on chinese autos. China is desperate to unload their crap onto the world. BTW the chinese have 68 sq km of warehouses which retains 40% of production at any time.

DJT is also firing many high profile dudes in the US govt - e.g. NSA director handling cyber security, etc, the HHS is gutted, the EDU dept too. The system is being turned upside down and no one knows what is next. The eCONomists/media/talking heads have all slammed DJT. Only 8% of population of US plays in stock market, the rest don't have an idea. Those entities that were importing China goods are at quandry - Walmart, Etsy, etc, Dem States like Kalifornia, Washington (Seattle), NY and the deep state behind are at a loss. All the taps have been turned of - Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia and so on. The Asian wonder nations were also importing china maal and are now stuck. China is literally in a bonfire state and Stroke struck Emperor may resort to a global war.

bala saar,

Don the john has shafted vietnam for sins of commission and omission.

the cheen, per some rumours floating around have a very much reduced population, having suffered massively during the covid times and even in epidemics after that

Many in the cheen power structure and the hierarchy are with their backs to the wall, waiting for the single shot to the back of the head

The cheen need to depend on India to fend off very many bad things. The amrikis need cheen to be isolated and the amrikis seem to have the russkis in their corner

the euros are being cut up for fish bait, the britshits are doing no better

Don the john seems to have singled out India for some TLC, perhaps we are being saved now so that we may be devoured later

He has shafted both the pakis and the beedis

[chanakyaa]

...
India holds some 650 B$ of Forex. I'm guessing about half of it in USD, and the rest in € and various other currencies. Since we are not an ally we will not be pressured first. But what if the US says we will give you tech like jet engines or nuclear tech but you have to buy our 100yr zero coupon bonds?
...

...
The Mar-e-Lago accord. The intent is to spur manufacturing, weaken the dollar and pay-for-protection.
...

The discussion on tariffs and its impact is fine, but I'm paying close attention to how the negotiations end up with a discussion on the 800 pound gorilla in the room, i.e., US DEBT. Is the concession on tariffs the carrot? The first highlighted part above could be the near-term goal, and second highlighted part will be the natural consequence of it.

[Vayutuvan]

1. what you see, is often not what you get, so beware when you say "credentials are an indication of intellect" and yes, one noticed the caveat.
2. It's a sword that cuts both ways

1. Thanks for noting the caveat. In fact I belong to the complimentary set.
2. 100% agree.

That is the problem with INC and Lutyens folks going after Modi's MA certificate and such. While credentials help, there is no alternative to experiencing the ground truths and learning the hard way.

Quotes from the redoubtable one and only Samuel Clemens AKA Mark Twain

Everything has its limit--iron ore cannot be educated into gold.
- What is Man?

Education consists mainly in what we have unlearned.
- Mark Twain's Notebook, 1898

[bala]

One of things to watch is whether the US budget will plug deficits, i.e. the galloping debt deficit which is reaching astronomical proportions. Once they plug the leaks both in expenditure and imports that will signal to the markets the right direction the economy is heading. If DJT can show this metric then markets will start their boom. The guys depending on China imports are shafted and can never recover. The other thing is Ukraine-Russia tussle and Israel-Gaza (Iran is a consequence of this) to be concluded soon. DJT is hammering Yemen, so the shipping lanes will be protected. IMEC is the next big gold rush. Cheens will be forced to make a deal with the US otherwise their outlook going forward will be severly damaged, which they can never recover.

[Vayutuvan]

Per US trade figures (the same govt source Trump used for computing his Reciprocal tariffs):
https://apps.bea.gov/international/fact ... t.html#341
2024, good trade:
Russian exports to the US: $3.016 billion
Russian imports from the US: $0.665 billion
US trade deficit = 2.351
Reciprocal tariff rate = 2.351/(2 * 3.016) * 100% = 38.98% --> 39%

All things being equal, Trump should have announced a Reciprocal Tariff rate of 39% on Russia.
Of course, Trump has not announced any tariffs on Russia, apparently not even the base 10% tariff.
The White House says because there are already sanctions on Russia. (e.g., https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump- ... t6nGqasBW5 )
But there are already deeper and more longstanding sanctions on Iran, and Trump announced a 10% tariff on Iran.

OK. Noted. But why don't you give your analysis other than saying in a roundabout way that DJT is a Russian asset or something like that?!!!

[A_Gupta]

The US trade deficit does not contribute to its debt because people have been willing to accept US dollars as payment. (It will now become a big problem because in 75 days, Trump has eroded the rest of the world's trust in the US.)


(Pakistan's trade deficit does contribute to its debt because it has to find a way to get US dollars to pay for its imports, no one wants the Pakistani rupee.)

The US federal government deficits are largely an effect of their policy/ideology and not because of any weakness in their economy.
The US had gone down to 23% of the world economy in 2010. In 2024 it had rebounded to 26%.

Social security and Medicare are two huge expenditures of the US govt. On the revenue side there are policy choices.
For example, Social Security contributions are limited to an income unto $176,100, which is a policy choice, not an economic necessity. On the renenue front, there are a whole bunch of such policy choices.

On the expenditure side, for instance, US Medicare, despite being a gigantic consumer of pharma, was not allowed to negotiate prices with pharma companies until recently (Biden's innovation), thus costing the US federal government hugely. This was a policy choice.

--
Yes, the US let certain strategic manufacturing capabilities slip from its hands. But the remedy is not tariffs on garments from Bangladesh, but strategically targeted tariffs and incentives. (Biden's CHIPS act, for instance).

[bala]

In June 27, 1996 Dem Speaker Nancy Pelosi (rather young and smarter in those days) said this at around 1:00 in YT below. She did have common sense at one point in her career. So Nancy knew that imports from China was hurting the US, yet she did nothing to correct it. In fact, she also knew that there was "waste" in the US Govt, but she voted to increase budgets and increase the "waste" in US Govt.

US Tariffs on chinese goods is 2% but China is 35%, is this fair and she suggest reciprocal tariffs should be the norm! Wonderbar, same thing DJT is saying in 2025

youtube.com/watch?v=jHhJZ7Je8aw

DJT has already said that China is playing the tariff game all wrong. Emperor has over-reacted. Even Vietnam is saying that they will go to 0 % on US goods import. Many of the stuff made in Vietnam are made by factories partially own by the Chinese. The US knows all this and will put additional tariffs on Vietnam due to China profiting from trade.

I think India has a great window of opportunity to talk with DJT commerce secretary Lutnick and come up with something sensible for tariffs, 10% is fine.

[Vayutuvan]

... analysis for something else is cut ...

Still no answer to why you highlighted the fact that there are no tariffs on Russia but 10% on Iran.

What is unsaid is that you don't like high tariffs on US european "allies". Please correct me if I am wrong in my presumption. I am not happy with tariffs on India for sure and am open about it.

So my question still stands.

[Vayutuvan]

One of things to watch is whether the US budget will plug deficits, i.e. the galloping debt deficit which is reaching astronomical proportions. Once they plug the leaks both in expenditure and imports that will signal to the markets the right direction the economy is heading. If DJT can show this metric then markets will start their boom. The guys depending on China imports are shafted and can never recover. The other thing is Ukraine-Russia tussle and Israel-Gaza (Iran is a consequence of this) to be concluded soon. DJT is hammering Yemen, so the shipping lanes will be protected. IMEC is the next big gold rush. Cheens will be forced to make a deal with the US otherwise their outlook going forward will be severly damaged, which they can never recover.

[Vayutuvan]

One of things to watch is whether the US budget will plug deficits, i.e. the galloping debt deficit which is reaching astronomical proportions. Once they plug the leaks both in expenditure and imports that will signal to the markets the right direction the economy is heading. If DJT can show this metric then markets will start their boom. The guys depending on China imports are shafted and can never recover. The other thing is Ukraine-Russia tussle and Israel-Gaza (Iran is a consequence of this) to be concluded soon. DJT is hammering Yemen, so the shipping lanes will be protected. IMEC is the next big gold rush. Cheens will be forced to make a deal with the US otherwise their outlook going forward will be severly damaged, which they can never recover.

GOP is talking about increasing corporate tax rates from 21% to 25%. If KD Harris got elected, she would surely have increased to 28%. That was one of her election promises.

No taxes on tips, overtime, and social security is a double edged sword in that this carve out for tips and overtime can be gamed.

Interestingly, GOP got control of both house and senate and POTUS yet what we see Democrat policies being implemented - attacking the free trade and hiking the taxes.

The US public is between a rock and a hard place so to say. Democrats would not have stopped illegal immigration nor the wars raging in the world nor energy self-sufficiency.

GOP and Trump are overreaching right now. Nobody cares about deficit.

[Vayutuvan]

...

@vijayk gaaru, good find. "Deepstate Joe Trump" is so apt.

One more thing "aravind" missed is this. China would start dumping what was destined to US into India. As it is, Chinese imports are destroying Indian manufacturing. The silver lining though is that India will get slightly better quality cheap stuff that they sell to the US compared to what they dump into India.

[Vayutuvan]

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/04/04/gover ... m-tariffs/

Let us see where this goes. I am expecting this to be legally challenged by Trump admin. It is interesting to see a democrat governor of a very blue state asserting state's rights over centralization which is the preferred position of the Democrats over the centuries.

Apr 4, 2025

Governor Newsom directs state to pursue strategic relationships with international trading partners; urges exemptions of California-made products from tariffs

“California is not Washington, D.C.”

What you need to know:As President Trump’s tariffs take effect, Governor Gavin Newsom is pursuing new strategic partnerships with international trading partners while calling for California-made products to be excluded from any retaliatory measures and affirming California’s long-standing commitment to fair, open, and mutually beneficial global trade.

SACRAMENTO – As global responses to the Trump Administration’s tariffs take shape, Governor Gavin Newsom today directed his Administration to pursue new strategic trade relationships with international partners aimed at strengthening shared economic resilience and protecting California’s manufacturers, workers, farmers, businesses, and supply chains. As part of this effort, the Governor is also calling on long-standing trade partners to exempt California-made products from any retaliatory measures, reinforcing the state’s commitment to fair, open, and mutually beneficial trade.

“California leads the nation as the #1 state for agriculture and manufacturing — and it’s our workers, families, and farmers who stand to lose the most from this Trump tax hike and trade war. To our international partners: As the fifth largest economy in the world, the Golden State will remain a steady, reliable partner for generations to come, no matter the turbulence coming out of Washington. California is not Washington, D.C.”
Governor Gavin Newsom

...

[Vayutuvan]

I was looking for this quote.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/loca ... p/3670638/

“Donald Trump’s tariffs do not represent all Americans,” he said in a video posted on social media. “And on behalf of 40 million Americans that live in the great state of California … our state of mind is around supporting stable trading relationships around the globe."

So totally Hitlerian attitude of Aryan superiority only replace Aryan with "intellectual" and it would be complete. We are so close to another krystalnacht. The original one started with rounding up and euthanizing autistic and so called "crazy" children of Nazi Germany. Now the progressive elite left of CA are targeting the unfortunate poor of the midwest calling them low lives, red necks, and illiterate.

[bala]

^^ Vayu gaaru, What Kalifornia nuisance is doing is exactly what DJT wants - equal tariffs on products for both sides. Don't know how successful Kalifornia would be in negotiation with say China on equal tariffs or zero. This will clash with US National objectives and Kalifornia cannot run its own foreign policy, tis like DMK Stalin taking foreign policy into his own hands, his sister Kanimozhi has mentioned in Indian Parliament what is wrong with being Friends with China.

Marco Rubio, Dept of State of US, articulates the US position very well. He wants a Pause to India On All US Foreign Aid and deems India a "rich country" and China too. But he added for humanitarian causes the US will help, e.g. earthquake in Myanmar. He says markets are reacting for only those companies dependent on China imports. Also he says that US is the largest consumer in the world. DJT wants to end wars. He (Rubio) also wants NATO members in Europe to spend on defence. He (Rubio) talked about Greenland and does not want China there. For the interest of the West, Greenland should be under the US.

YT Apr 5, 2025
youtube.com/watch?v=GMyVGkg8iGI

[Deans]

Some comments on all the analysts giving gyan on tariffs.
I have spent fair bit og my career in Inrernational trade and dealt with sanctioned countries.

PGGurus get into too many things they do not understand. They were spectacularly wrong on TN Lok sabha elections which was supposed to be
what they had most knowledge about. The other Indian analysts have a superficial knowledge, which is fine, since the consumer of mass media has even less knowledge.

The Hudson bay paper is quite theoretical. Assuming the theory is correct - it depends on several assumptions being correct, for Trump's plan to
succeed. For e.g currency appreciation then depreciation, no retaliatory tariffs, US quickly resuming manufacturing etc.

Trump's objective is not just equalizing terms of trade, but using tariffs as a tool for coercive diplomacy and possibly causing the stock market to fall and pushing money into the bond markets, reducing interest dates, just a 9 Trillion $ of debt is due and has to be renewed.

[A_Gupta]

Was just listening to a small business owner, runs a high fashion house; imports fabric from Japan (denim), India and Portugal, fleece from Canada, cuts and assembles in the US, sells in the Paris fashion market. The tariffs seriously impact his business.

I did some search - the denim from Japan is produced by an antiquated process and is prized for that reason, because it has a different finish and feel. There might be one tiny plant in the US in Louisiana that could do that.

He did not mention specifically what is bought from India or Portugal.

I should also mention that small business owners overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

[A_Gupta]

Last year the average Wall Street bonus was $250K or thereabouts. They were looking forward to an even better year in 2025, with no regulatory barriers on mergers & acquisitions, companies' profits up from tax cuts, looser regulatory environment, etc. It seems with the tariffs, merger and acquisitions and IPOs are all on hold, and the forecast now is for a quieter year this year.

I should mention that Wall Street enthusiastically backed Trump.

---
The tariff wars in Trump's first term resulted in a EU-Japan free trade agreement.
This time it is India's turn

[A_Gupta]

Turns out BMW imports engines from Germany, assembles cars in its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant and then exports a large number of them abroad.
This is about 2022:

Spartanburg, S.C. For the ninth consecutive year, BMW Manufacturing led the nation in automotive exports by value, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The South Carolina plant exported 227,029 BMW Sports Activity Vehicles and Coupes during 2022 with an export value of nearly $9.6 billion. The BMWs produced at Plant Spartanburg were exported through the Port of Charleston, SC (more than 182,000 units), and through five other southeastern ports: Savannah, GA; Brunswick, GA; Jacksonville, FL; Miami, FL; and Everglades, FL. More than 17,000 BMWs were exported via rail.

During 2022, Germany became the top export market from BMW Manufacturing (15.5% of export volume), followed by China (13.5%), South Korea (12.8%), Canada (7.5%), and Great Britain (5.6%).

This is about 2024:
https://www.bmwgroup-werke.com/spartanb ... orter.html

Spartanburg, S.C. – BMW Manufacturing has confirmed that it was the leading automotive exporter by value in the United States in 2024, according to data released this month by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Plant Spartanburg exported nearly 225,000 BMW Sports Activity Vehicles and Coupes last year with an export value of more than $10 billion. Moreover, since 2014, the South Carolina plant has exported more than 2.7 million BMWs – about 63 percent of total production – with an export value of more than $104 billion.
...
...
Since 1992, the BMW Group has invested more than $14.8 billion in its South Carolina operations. BMW Manufacturing is the largest BMW Group plant in the world, assembling more than 1,500 vehicles each day. The plant is an important part of BMW’s global production network and plays a critical role in meeting the high demand for BMW Sports Activity Vehicles and Coupes in the U.S. and around the world. Nearly 57 percent of its vehicles are shipped to about 120 global markets, making BMW the largest automotive exporter by value in the United States for more than a decade. In 2024, nearly 50 percent of BMW vehicles sold in the U.S. came from Plant Spartanburg.

The impact on sales to China now would be 20% for parts imported from Europe (the Trump tariff) + 34% in selling to China (the Chinese retaliatory tariffs). Unless Trump grants an exemption for the parts imported from Europe. It would still attract the 34% tariff from China.

----
BTW, the Birla Group has "over $15 billion invested across various US-based projects", including a $2.5+ billion investment in an aluminum plant in Alabama.

https://www.manufacturingtodayindia.com ... d-projects

[chanakyaa]

...
Trump's objective is not just equalizing terms of trade, but using tariffs as a tool for coercive diplomacy and possibly causing the stock market to fall and pushing money into the bond markets, reducing interest dates, just a 9 Trillion $ of debt is due and has to be renewed.

Correct. Few more things. US financial system is so leveraged, that interest rates at the current levels are something population is not used to. Lending is slow, housing is slow. 6-8% borrowing cost isn't big deal, but the economic system is so much addicted to cheap money that things simply stop working, because of heavy financialization over the system over the past 20-30 years. Refinancing of $9 trillion is definitely an immediate concerns, but the bigger problem is the continuously increasing debt. Wonder if behind the curtain, if uncle's ultimate intent is to restructurw debt with trading partners under the guise of tariffs. Bit speculative, but will see.

[bala]

Here in this YT DJT clearly spells out the China deficit problem. It is almost T or slightly more. He wants to solve this, no US President has addressed this issue. He wants no deficit with any nation, break even or surplus with the US, otherwise no dice. This is an election issue. He believes next year US will make 1 T overall surplus trade. Currently the trade deficit is 1.9T in the hole and on top of that the US is spending on wars with European NATO. This is unsustainable. Many other nations agree with the direction that DJT has taken and they sympathize. Now many nations want to discuss their own trade and smoothen things out with the US. As a consequence DJT sees many states whose industry disappeared towards China, are coming back to the US. He says that 7 T has been already committed to building in the US - semiconductors, autos, etc. There is lag but it is happening all over the US, industry is getting re-invigorated right back to the US. To one question, DJT called the Dems as numbskulls.

youtube.com/watch?v=_GLdSswrPGw

[bala]

This is interesting take by Lt. Gen P. R. Shankar, who is a keen watcher of everything China. Some China dude, is writing an article in chinese, "Is Trump a madman?"

youtube.com/watch?v=qFjEivkzNhU

The China man's observation are interesting. He says the popular media and world watchers are hung up on DJT's:

a) Focussing only Interest and transactions
b) Short term narrow limited behaviour
c) His strategic coherence and long-term planning is impossible

- i.e. they the media/world watchers deduce this.

Instead he (China Dude) cautions:

1. Don't listen to his words merely but pay attention to his actions.
2. His actions are not purely his, but are based on the past 4 yrs of deep thinking by close associates of his and have carefully crafted things which are unveiling at lighting speed.
3. So don't draw conclusions based on superficial phenomenon alone.

This is true, because behind the scenes things are happening which no one seriously talks about. There is a lot of back channel action going on which most media is clueless. Tariffs etc have been well thought out by someone other than DJT. There are many smart people behind his grand announcements.

He (China dude) summarizes:

There is a permanent change being done to global trade patterns
There is comprehensive strategic contraction with enterprising "Monroe (ism)".
There is recognition of multipolar world and US is taking advantage on a selective basis.

He concludes that Trump is not crazy. Permanent change is end goal by DJT.

The US wants to get rid of excessive global commitments and unnecesary burden around the world. There is also some enterprising forward positions like recovering Panama Canal and perhaps absorbing Canada and Greenland (these are well thought out thrusts). There is deliberate strategy not to entangle with the world as a "boss" and stick your nose with revolutions and US Aid. Instead the US wants to delegate these functions to those that are on its side.

Being Chinese, he believes that the Ukraine ceasefire is simply to put an end to Sino-Russian relations. The US Russia relations with be reversed by DJT. He believes the 3 major poles are US, Russia and of course China. Europe, Indian, Brazil, South African will be lesser in importance. Also he believes if US and China cannot resolve things, then China will come on top not the US. He thinks the main issue will be US has to deal with China, Russia will be sidelined. Taiwan he thinks will be taken over by China or China will offer something to the US to take over Taiwan.

[Jay]

Here in this YT DJT clearly spells out the China deficit problem. It is almost T or slightly more. He wants to solve this, no US President has addressed this issue. He wants no deficit with any nation, break even or surplus with the US, otherwise no dice. This is an election issue. He believes next year US will make 1 T overall surplus trade. Currently the trade deficit is 1.9T in the hole and on top of that the US is spending on wars with European NATO. This is unsustainable. Many other nations agree with the direction that DJT has taken and they sympathize. Now many nations want to discuss their own trade and smoothen things out with the US. As a consequence DJT sees many states whose industry disappeared towards China, are coming back to the US. He says that 7 T has been already committed to building in the US - semiconductors, autos, etc. There is lag but it is happening all over the US, industry is getting re-invigorated right back to the US. To one question, DJT called the Dems as numbskulls.

Bala sir, you know how much BS trump ji peddles and how his supporters take everything he says at face value without challenging anything?

The fact that this fanta says US-Chine trade deficit is $1T, and you repeat the same lie without even checking speaks volume. The trade deficit is DRUMROLLLL $295B, not 1T.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

[bala]

Bala sir, you know how much BS trump ji peddles and how his supporters take everything he says at face value

Jay, I just provided transcript as is, and I know nowadays "fact checking" is a fashion (mainly in dems). However consider this: DJT is talking about deficits overall with China - that includes Vietnam, Mexico, Canada and whoever. He has more upto date specs than we do. There is a method to his "madness" which escapes everyone's logic because they don't look at the bigger picture. You and I are not the El Presidente, so give the guy some slack.

[saip]

On the same vein fact checking is an anathema for most rePUBICs as their lies will be exposed. Oh, on a different note most of retirees savings disappeared (30%) disappeared in a flash because of the shenanigans of a conman who went playing golf (Nero anyone?) But we have to be happy as the sick country is being made healthy (without vaccines at that) and not so great country is being made great again after it is made bankrupt.