Understanding the US - Again

[Tanaji]

I feel really sorry for anyone who was retiring in next 5-7 years

[SRajesh]

Bhailog
A question:
Given that US is the largest economy and every Ramu/Shamu/Bhimu needs to do vyapaar with US how do you put up counter barriers??
or Can rest of the world do leva-devi minus US??
And most importantly can they trust the Chinese in the long run??

[SRajesh]

If Trump wins this war: The long term hegemony of Unkil to last for another 5-6 Decades.
Is this what Trumpwa wants??

[Leonard]

Folks,

Trumps "tariffs" are mostly focussed on PRC/CCP -- China -- where 20-25 % of CCP goons have captured 90 % of the Economic activity of the Country ...

Someone - just posted -- about BMW's -- made in the USA and exported to say China ..

Let's just compare costs ...

USA MSRP for a 4-Series 2025 BMW - starts at $52,000+

Same 4-Series Car Imported into China - starts at 596,000 yuan -- which is $82,000 +

Other examples -- Some years back ...

Gov Gary Locke - using his ethnicity / & Democratic Senators went "begging" to CCP Commissar - Winnie the Pooh .. to increase Business like Nuisance in CA ...

Came back totally "shell shocked" ..

1. Right outside their "swanky" 5* hotel -- Pirated copies of MSFT OS, Word packages were being sold for < $50 ...

2. Washington Apples (not great anyway) - exported to PRC, local market vendors would TAKE out the "washington delicious/grown in USA" - paper /plastic stickies were being removed and slapped on Chinese apples to con local Chinese populace addicted to foreign goods ..

3. Personally saw a business colleague go bankrupt -- when his company making "magnetic" flashlights (patented) with hardened mil grade shells took his mfg to china to reduce mfg costs ($35 pp) only to see his flashlight being sold in GiJoes next year for $5 ...

4. Piracy in MSFT products was so rampant in PRC -- MSFT spent $$$$$$$$ to come up with anti-piracy mechanism ...

5. New CCP -- Commercial Jet Comac C919 - is a Carbon copy of what ? -- this happened when an out shoring factory opened in Shanghai ..

FYI - HAL makes windows for ... But they don't make Carbon Copies of ...

[Leonard]

Comparison of BMW prices for USA made 4-Series - 2025 model ..

USA MSRP $52, 000+

Germany MSRP (imported) $53,000+

India - MSRP (imported) $64,000+

China - MSRP (imported) $82,000+

UK - MSRP (imported) $52,000+

Australia - MSRP (imported) $56,000+

Pakistan - MSRP (imported) $107,000+

[Vayutuvan]

Last year the average Wall Street bonus was $250K or thereabouts. They were looking forward to an even better year in 2025, with no regulatory barriers on mergers & acquisitions, companies' profits up from tax cuts, looser regulatory environment, etc. It seems with the tariffs, merger and acquisitions and IPOs are all on hold, and the forecast now is for a quieter year this year.

I should mention that Wall Street enthusiastically backed Trump.

---
The tariff wars in Trump's first term resulted in a EU-Japan free trade agreement.
This time it is India's turn

Cry me a river for a speciality small business that is letting parisians preen at PLace Vendome in torn jeans.

And the wall street rich who are dependent on their bonuses for their roji roti.

Hedge fund managers get bonuses in billions. Some low GPA BBA from mid level B-schools like Georgetown or Claremont-McKenna would get living wages in NYC.

Just now Prof. Blinders of Princeton (ex-vice chair of the fed) made a point that lower 50% of the working population has very little or no exposure to stick markets. Unless there is a general turndown in the economy (which is a danger ofc), they are will do OK in the short term and even in the long term given that von der Lyen now is proposing zero% tariffs on industrial goods.

I have more data I can link to but meh. The level of analysis here by those suffering from TDS is not worth spending my time. They are here to whine and complain, not educate.

[Vayutuvan]

Bala sir, you know how much BS trump ji peddles and how his supporters take everything he says at face value without challenging anything?
...

Jay gaaru, I am sure you know that two books came out on Biden - Uncharted and Fight. Please do comment on "sharp as a tack" in light of that. Don't be shy.

Same for @saip gaaru. Anybody who has retirement funds in the stock market know that they might outlive their money. Anybody who has lived hat long would surely know that there are no guarantees in life.

Even "rent seeking" has its limitations as some of our NRIs found out. A few young Indian-Americans were going to town boasting that they bought their 12th investment property or 7th investment property. But Covid moratorium on rents ate a big chunk out of their "profits through refinancing" game.

[Vayutuvan]

I feel really sorry for anyone who was retiring in next 5-7 years

Life styles have to be changed. They may have to cut down on travel and have to eat out less frequently. They are not gonna starve. Tyey may have to move out of the golden state to midwest or low tax states like sunny FL.

The problem is this:

A lot of NRIs who came to the US post Y2K or came here on family reunification LPRs have increased their footprint living a king sized life. They are the ones who will be in more trouble.

Once you start nabobi a life style, it is hard to get back to a bhavatee bhikshaam dehi itinerant monk lifestyle. Once you are used to Atherton life style, it is hard to get back to midwest university town grad student life style.

[Vayutuvan]

3. Personally saw a business colleague go bankrupt -- when his company making "magnetic" flashlights (patented) with hardened mil grade shells took his mfg to china to reduce mfg costs ($35 pp) only to see his flashlight being sold in GiJoes next year for $5 ...
...

They are of much lower quality. Just the other day, SHQ started going through years of unopened junk she bought from Dollar General (she loves to shop) and threw out the whole lot. This junk is made with plastic which breaks even if you shake it a little harder. All the party supplies we collected during the first ten years of our children's birthday and samskara parties etc. are still occupying place in our basement. Those party supply stores went out of business long ago, even though they were sourcing everything from China.

[Vayutuvan]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 791100007/

We were right: New books expose truth about Biden's failing health. I'm furious. | Opinion
Only now, a year too late, are Democratic insiders and journalists finally telling Americans the truth about Joe Biden's failing health while he was president.
Nicole Russell
USA TODAY
...
'Biden might die in office'
Politico reported last week that at least four books will be published in the next few weeks that provide new details about Biden's failing health and the conspiracy to cover it up.

One of those books, "Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House,” by NBC News' Jonathan Allen and The Hill's Amie Parnes, includes incredible details about Biden's poor health while he was still in office.
...
The most damning part of "Fight" is the revelation that Vice President Kamala Harris' aides were so concerned about the president's health that they "strategized around the possibility that Biden might die in office." The authors report that Jamal Simmons, the vice president's communications director, drew up a “death-pool roster” of federal judges who could swear in Harris as president if Biden died.
...
Biden aides 'believed what they wanted to believe'
In “Uncharted: How Trump Beat Biden, Harris, and the Odds in the Wildest Campaign in History," author Chris Whipple details Biden's serious mental and physical decline.

“I have fresh reporting on an hour-by-hour, day-by-day basis of Biden’s final days, and obviously his decline is a major part of the story," Whipple told Politico.

After extensive reporting, Whipple, a former "60 Minutes" producer, came to the conclusion that Democrats were in deep denial about Biden's condition: “I happen to think that to call it a ‘cover-up’ is simplistic. I think it was stranger and way more troubling than that. Biden’s inner circle, his closest advisers, many of them were in a fog of delusion and denial. They believed what they wanted to believe.”
...

Swing voters, the 33% independents, were not fooled, neither did young black men, and even educated white women of the midwest. But then they are not decent people because they voted for "Trumpwaa".

We are being told that $250K bonus earning Wall Street grifter and some 0.01% of the small business owners voted for Trump. Yet in the recent FL by elections, Dem candidate spent 10 million vs 1 million by his GOP opponent. Still the GOP guy won.

Wall Street bigwigs and Silly-con poo baas have donated more to the DNC than GOP. KD Harris raked in $50 million on the day she declared to be seeking DNC nomination.

Here at BRF, we are being told that if we question Biden, KD Harris, Clintons, Obamas, etc. we are not decent people.

[Mort Walker]

I feel really sorry for anyone who was retiring in next 5-7 years

As in 2008-2009, it will recover even after a recession. The current economy isn't sustainable. Housing & car prices have gone through the roof. Aside from medicine or financial speculation, incomes are not there.

[bala]

Remember DJT administration shipping illegals to Venezuela and a federal judge blocked such deportation. The U.S. Supreme Court lifted a court order that blocked President Donald Trump from deporting Venezuelans under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

youtube.com/watch?v=CDmUqTCP3rg

Then there is the Israel - US talks Netanyahu visiting the US. They clearly say that Iran having a nuclear weapon is a no go. DJT says that US is having direct talks with Iran.

youtube.com/watch?v=_Mf_qvMnXvw

[chetak]

[bala]

DJT's tariff plan is the talk of town in US. In many discussions with press, DJT has said point-blank, while saying he has good relations with China and Xi Jinping, that the trade imbalance with China is being used to arm China and its military. Why does the US have to continue with this paradigm of getting stuff made in china. Even Vietnam which was willing to zero the tariffs was not good enough for the US. Mexico and Canada also fall in the same bucket. In China, all ports are at a standstill in terms of goods loading. Many Chinese manufacturing industries are devasted and there is unrest brewing with workers laid off. BYD an electric car company backed by Buffet is facing closure. India recently blocked BYD to put roots in manufacturing within India. China is dealing with 1/2 T to 1 T worth of manufactured goods per year and its major market is the US which is 25% share. EU is in shambles and goods shipped via EU to the US are also halted. The CCP and Emperor are bravely stoking the tariff war, upping things with the US but their internal situation is deteriorating day by day and one does not know when the whole thing crumbles very quickly.

For the EU, DJT wants them to be dependent on energy imports from the US and he says that the deficit with the US will be wiped of almost instanteously if EU imports energy (gas & oil) form the US. For Russia, they are under sanctions. Effectively DJT has dealt with the major blocks of trade in the world.

For India, the GOI is willing to negotiate with the US on equitable terms. This is the key because the tide of manufacturing from China has to be done elsewhere and who better than India. Modi and co have to navigate this new paradigm for the long term benefit and shy away from anything short sighted/pigheaded. India is also battling China in many ways and this helps when US takes the lead in the fight. India has to play this game to its benefit.

[SRajesh]

Can I ask a question:
This Tariff wars what is the ultimate goal then???
Is this aimed at China specifically and only aim is to dismantle the regime there
Emperor has collected a lot of enemies within
A standstill of factories will lead to invariably widespread unrest which can be weaponised against the regime
Albeit Government blanket bans the unrest and if there are killings they will be highlighted
Instead of fighting a costly war against China is this the Republicans deep plan??
And if they succeed then a stern warning issued to EU and Britshits
And probably a message to India as well???
Am I reading this wrong and it’s just the Trade Wars onleee
A big fan of Star Wars and the Emperor used Trade Wars precisely for this purpose

[Leonard]

IMHO The Tariff war started by DJT - is to "stop" Winnie the Pooh's grandiose plans in Taiwan ...

Former IAF pilot - MJ Vinod on X has an article on his account ...

China has been prepping its plans for Taiwan and if US & Other partners get involved it begin the big shebang WW3 ...

Evidence for this is in "stockpiling" of key resources ...

Oil, Commodities, Minerals, Built-up-Militia Ships -- (these will be used first as Pawns) against US Navy .., before using real CCP Navy stuff ..

Militia ships - 200+ deployed per day in SCS at any given moment - peaked at 400+ per day in 2022 ... These are between 45m - 65 m in length and imagine the Cash available to CCP to sustain these activities - Also Calculate the Cash available to CCP to build Remote LAC Villages 2000+ Km away from Main Cities ...

While NO cash is available for CCP worker drones to buy "high rise" apartments' in Dalian and other EVERGRANDE megapolis towns ..

See link below:

https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/why-is- ... resources/

Note -- Vivek R in one of his pressers had mentioned a sequence of steps ...

1. Stop the Russia/Ukraine war and Get the Russians to stop selling hi-tech weapons to CCP.

2. Reduce Dependence on Silicon Tech from Taiwan and force Taiwan to open Mfg elsewhere ... (in progress .. )

3. Reduce "cash" available to CCP to keep building his Mega Weapons pile ... (tariff's - can't export, Winnie has to spend moolah to pay the CCP worker drones) ..

It's time to stockpile on the popcorn and watch the game as it unfolds -- piece by piece ..

All the while ensuring the CCP "implodes" - We could enhance it slightly by making the LAC a bit hot too ... But you don't want the "ghee" to over-heat either ...

[bala]

For the US, the Ukriane war has shown that Russia can survive a long drawn out war and actually Russian military on the ground is battle hardened. The US cannot sustain long wars and casualties are a major issue with the media. Covid/Kungflu changed a lot of things around the world and additionally no one in the world has any faith in China. China is now in the cross-hairs of the US. The US Deep State has wisened up to removing their MNC manufacturing from China. One faction of US Deep State is okay with India but the SoreAss section is opposed. With DJT in office, the non-SoreAss faction of US Deep State is the primary and in charge. DJT is now gunning for China fair and square. Trade is the starting gambit of the warfare with China, note DJT has turned down Vietnam's zero tariff. Phillipines and other Asian nations are being dragged into the US military defence posture, Australia has to ditch China and pick the US. India is okay to align with any move against China. China is simply putting up a brave face to oppose things but this is a no-win situation for them, everything in trade hinges on US markets. Have to wait and see what internal trouble within China causes Emperor's downfall.

[SRajesh]

https://www.deccanherald.com/india/chin ... er-3484834
Here we go!!
Probably Emperor must be really spooked
All we need is to play hide and seek

[V_Raman]

What is SoreAss's problem with India? I never really understood that....

[A_Gupta]

Trump may be able to revive some US manufacturing behind a tariff wall. But those manufactures cannot hope to be competitive in the world market and will have to be satisfied with US domestic market only unless China is taken down (equivalently, everyone agrees to raise tariffs on Chinese imports). So yes, it is very plausible that all this is aimed at China and coercing the world to shun China.

[Vayutuvan]

I feel really sorry for anyone who was retiring in next 5-7 years

@Tanaji ji, consider the following numbers given out by Secy Bessent.

1. Top 10% hold 80% of the stocks in the US stock market
2. Next 40% hold 12%
3. Next 50% hold 8%

Baby boomers are retiring in oh about 5-6 years. They are the ones who own a lot of real estate as well as good healthcare, especially if they worked in federal or state govts. Talking about Indian-Americans (who are we most concerned about), those who came in 1970-1990 timeframe are well set. H1Bs were aplenty, LPRs were a matter of 6mo-2.5 years. Max waiting period in certain jurisdictions like NY- triastate. 6 mo in Michigan. CA was quite fast.

Those who came after 2000 and never went to school here have a problem. They are in debt neck deep. They have not seen a real stock market decline but for the 2008 housing debacle. Almost all recovered from that debacle. If they invested in stocks, used them as collateral to take on more debt, then they are in a bit of a trouble.

In a stagflation and recession, those who are in the last quarter of their career and are in the mid level management positions would find it difficult to find a job if they get laid off. There is also quite a bit of ageism in the Si Valley. If a 50 year old gets laid off, they may have to wait for 6-12 months before they get employed again.

As for younger gens like millennials and Gen Z, 50% of those are living with their parents and on the average they get $1500 PM help from their parents.

Many are in despair and are getting into taking drugs which are derived from fentanyl. It is a huge problem in the midwest.

[bala]

While we are looking at tariffs by the US, the other activity is DOGE and fraud in the US govt system. 140 B so far, well documented fraud cases. There are others whose magnitude is so vast that documentation of them will take a while. 4.7T from Treasury payments lacked treasury access codes, so no traceability. Now treasury codes are mandatory. There are 2.7T improper healthcare payments that have been identified. Many payments went to ineligible recipients, many are overseas! Pentagon failed its 7th Audit and cannot account for 2.5T in assets. Overpricing of many items. F-35 fighter program is 700 M per plane. Social Security Admin is losing 100 M annually in direct deposit fraud. DOGE is on track to get 10 T waste identified which will make a huge dent in the Debt of the US.

youtube.com/watch?v=7BN_Bi73JAo

[Vayutuvan]

Trump may be able to revive some US manufacturing behind a tariff wall. But those manufactures cannot hope to be competitive in the world market and will have to be satisfied with US domestic market only unless China is taken down (equivalently, everyone agrees to raise tariffs on Chinese imports). So yes, it is very plausible that all this is aimed at China and coercing the world to shun China.

They will be competitive if the USD devalues. Obviously the standard of living is going to be lowered for everybody. That said, if the top 25% take a hit in their "standard of living", it is not such a bad thing for the country over all. Heck it is not a bad thing for the world overall.

[vera_k]

I'm of the opinion that many things are true at the same time.

We know that Trump does care about the stock market as evidenced by his reaction during the 2018 rate hikes.
Why Jerome Powell’s quiet show of defiance against Trump and Wall Street is so important

So, if Trump missed the post-Covid rally either because of legal trouble or being over-leveraged and caught out during the 2022 bear market -

1. The stock market can be tanked to reenter
2. Chinese can be brought to heel
3. High-cost states domestically (that conveniently didn't vote for T) can be encouraged to rethink
4. More business can be opened up overseas in other countries
5. And finally if some more territory can be secured (Canada or Greenland), why not?

In case this sounds cynical, check out the 2nd article blow

Making Sense of the Trade War
Why Trump Wants Tariffs

[A_Gupta]

John Peterson
John’s Substack
6h

Tariffs are my business. Two tales of unintended consequences.

1. Florida-based company importing an automotive aftermarket part faces a 79% tariff on its Chinese imports. It's a family-owned, homegrown business doing $100 million a year in sales. A competitor has a plant in Mexico whose competing good comes in duty free under USMCA. US firm can no longer compete; we're looking at the potential closure of a significant US company and loss of jobs.

2. Company manufacturing touch-screen monitors in Illinois, only US manufacturer of same. Paying huge tariffs on Chinese LEDs it uses to make the monitors. Its chief competitor in S. Korea buys the same Chinese LEDs, makes the monitors in Korea, imports them duty free under the US-S. Korea free trade agreement. US manufacturer now bleeding red ink. International trade is a bit more complex than these amateurs in Washington think.

[Tanaji]

Vayutuvanji, thanks for an insightful post. I have witnessed the telecom/dotcom sector crash of 2001 and it wasn’t pretty. Families were wiped out that were foolhardy enough to invest their 401k in tech stocks alone - not only did the stock tank but they were laid off as well. If you were in mid or late 50s at the time , it was a body blow for your future. I fear it’s the same right now . Even people in late 40s aren’t safe: Indians try to save , especially for their kids education and US offers attractive methods to do so. These can and will get seriously affected thus impacting the children that are in early teens and their college prospects…

Two theorists I have seen is that T. is doing this to engineer a crash deliberately so his oligarch buddies can gather up the pieces for cheap. But it doesn’t make much sense as their own wealth will get hit by the crash. The second theory is that he wants to inflate his way out of the US debt by crashing the dollar since the debt is foreign owned anyway mostly. Who knows , then again this is economics where 1+1 is not only 5 and 7 but can also be 3 or 2. I never could understand it…

[Vayutuvan]

https://apnews.com/article/irs-ice-immi ... b52d0db34d

Internal Revenue Service agrees to send immigrant tax data to ICE for enforcement
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Internal Revenue Service has agreed to share immigrants’ tax data with Immigration and Customs Enforcement for the purpose of identifying and deporting people illegally in the U.S., according to a document signed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

The new data-sharing arrangement was signed on Monday in the form of a “memorandum of understanding” — found in federal court filings — and will allow ICE to submit names and addresses of immigrants inside the U.S. illegally to the IRS for cross-verification against tax records.

Treasury argues that the agreement will help carry out President Donald Trump’s agenda to secure U.S. borders and is part of his larger nationwide immigration crackdown, which has resulted in deportations, workplace raids, and the use of an 18th century wartime law to deport Venezuelan migrants.

Advocates, however, say the IRS-DHS information sharing agreement violates longstanding privacy laws and diminishes the privacy of all Americans.

The basis for the agreement is founded in “longstanding authorities granted by Congress, which serve to protect the privacy of law-abiding Americans while streamlining the ability to pursue criminals,” said a Treasury official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to explain the agency’s thinking on the agreement.
...
A collection of tax law experts for the NYU Tax Law Center wrote Monday that the IRS-DHS agreement “threatens to violate the rights that many more Americans have under longstanding laws that protect their tax information from wrongful disclosure or dissemination.”

“In fact, it is difficult to see how the IRS could release information to DHS while complying with taxpayer privacy statutes,” they said, “IRS officials who sign off on data sharing under these circumstances risk breaking the law, which could result in criminal and civil sanctions.”

The memo states that the IRS and ICE “will perform their duties in a manner that recognizes and enhances individuals’ right of privacy and will ensure their activities are consistent with laws, regulations, and good administrative practices.”

[Vayutuvan]

Indians try to save , especially for their kids education and US offers attractive methods to do so. These can and will get seriously affected thus impacting the children that are in early teens and their college prospects…

@Tanaji ji, the alarming trend now is that the younger set is not saving.

a few data points

1. Once a PIO in IT (younger to me by two decades) and I went out to get a bottle of wine. I pulled my CC out. Friend says "Why do you want to put it on the CC? I have cash". His underlying assumption was that I am carrying CC debt. Probably that is what he has seen in his own circles.

2. When another friend heard that SHQ shops at Aldi her immediate reaction was "didi, blacks shop at Aldi". The underlying assumption was that "blacks buy at places where the quality is cheap".

3. Recently a friend - let me say he doesn't have to worry about job safety, moved from here to TX. His SHQ complained that all the IT folks there talk about how much gold they have, how big their houses are and how many investment properties they own, luxury cars, how much their sarees cost, etc. SHQ says she has had it and doesn't want to socialize with IT people. My friend can afford all that but they saved. They are not frugal but not spendthrift either. Beyond a point, marginal rate of enjoyment decreases and decrease steeply. It is like alcohol. You won't get as much kick out of your second drink than the first. After the second one, whatever you drink is going to give you a huge hangover the next day.

4. I was a building a house for myself at the same time a distant relative was also getting their house built. She asked my how much money I spending to furnish master BR, formal dining, and formal living. She said their friends and neighbors are spending upwards 50K usd per room. They are also planning on doing the same. I was aghast. Everyone of them came to the US ca. 2000s or even later. All in IT.

5. Aspiration is one thing. But greed?!!! Showing off?!!! They have gone crazy, I tell you. They are spending $300K for marriages. Even $500K is not unheard of.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.fastcompany.com/90235149/tr ... wards-book

One of the more illuminating passages in Fear, Bob Woodward’s new book on the Trump White House, centers on former economic adviser Gary Cohn and his apparently fruitless attempts to educate Donald Trump on the changing nature of the U.S. economy and the impact of technologies like self-driving vehicles.

During one of their first discussions, Cohn told Trump that robotics could lead to job losses and that, during his presidency, he is going to have to deal with the automation of cars and trucks, especially since many Americans make a living behind the wheel. Trump’s response, per Woodward: “What are you talking about?”

Later, Cohn tried to correct Trump’s mistaken belief that factory jobs wouldn’t come back, saying Americans by and large don’t aspire to work in assembly factories: “I can sit in a nice office with air conditioning and a desk, or stand on my feet eight hours a day. Which one would you do for the same pay?” He added, per the book: “People don’t want to stand in front of a 2,000-degree blast furnace. People don’t want to go into coal mines and get black lung.”

But his lessons fell on deaf ears. “Trump wasn’t buying it,” writes Woodward. When Cohn asked Trump why he clung to such views, Trump responded, “I just do. I’ve had these views for 30 years.”

Woodward’s reporting has been challenged by Cohn, who told Axios: “This book does not accurately portray my experience at the White House. I am proud of my service in the Trump administration, and I continue to support the president and his economic agenda.”

[vish_mulay]

The virus has spread out here also. We are routinely being ridiculed for being frugal. Me and SHQ live by 70/20/10 ratio rule and saving for rainy days . Doing it last 25 yrs. Most of my contacts, the mid 30s and younger Indians, are buying real estate at 90% LVR where upon they are paying upwards of 40% post tax income in the EMIs. Buying organic food (big con in Australia) at 100% premium price and designer goods as status symbol is rampant. No one is investing or creating nest egg and frankly not worried. I do believe, majority of Indians 40 yrs and below living in Australia are one major recession away from the complete financial meltdown. Economically we are projecting growing at 0.1% GDP growth etc etc. Utter bullshit. Small businesses surveys indicate that last 9 quarters we are in recession while 12000 small business (<10 employees) are closing every month. Dark days ahead for many countries but we are looking at the precipice down under. Trump tariffs are going to make it very quick and really painful.

[Vayutuvan]

Trump tariffs are going to make it very quick and really painful.

@vish_mulay ji, hopefully quick, painful, and also short. One can hope.

[Hriday]

Another aspect of the tariff war is that the US people will not have much variety of non-essential items to buy, at least in the short term. Is that correct? How many billion dollars per year can saved on that account?

IIRC Trump said that about 7 trillion worth investment are going to be invested in USA over several years in a post by bala just recently. It may be exaggerated, but anyway, if easy imports are restricted then what is the plan to start production in the US? Even in India, there are a lot of complaints by major infrastructure companies that skilled labour is hard to get. Some people even suggest that in India, with free ration, many poor people are unwilling to work hard. Will such scenarios happen in the USA?

[drnayar]

If Trump wins this war: The long term hegemony of Unkil to last for another 5-6 Decades.
Is this what Trumpwa wants??

more likely a pyrrhic victory., it will solidify anti american alliances and an alternate global trading system, WTO could become irrelevant. trade and economy will be backed and enforced by hard military power. small countries will face increasing irrelevance and drawn into larger groupings, not necessarily homogeneous.

as a corollary, more nuclear powers would emerge and existing ones beef up their arsenals

[Cyrano]

Perhaps Trump _is_ a Putin's stooge after all

[Cyrano]

BTW in all this tariffs madness, not a word on tax heavens or tax shelters like Cayman islands, jersey and many others or Ireland for that matter. I'm curious why.

[A_Gupta]

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

[Mort Walker]

In 2024, the US has a trade deficit with China of nearly $300B USD. India has a trade deficit with China of nearly $100B USD. These are the two largest trade deficits with China.

[Vayutuvan]

https://oxfordre.com/americanhistory/di ... 146-div1-6

The entire article is good. But this is pertinent to the discussions going on the India-US relations thread. I request all to continue here instead of derailing the other thread.

The growing numbers of unauthorized Mexican immigrants visible in the major cities by the 1980s were being vilified increasingly by conservative politicians and the media as potential security threats, provoking fears among many citizens. Many began to claim that the US-Mexico border was “out of control.” Something had to be done. For years, a number of legislative proposals had circulated in Congress to address the problem, but without success. Finally, legislation authored by Senator Alan Simpson (R-Wyoming) and Representative Peter Rodino (D-New Jersey) was passed and signed into law by President Ronald Reagan in 1986. The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) took effect on January 1, 1987, becoming the fifth major turning point in Mexican immigration history.

To enact the law, a number of different constituencies had to be placated, among them Mexican American civil rights groups, immigrant advocates, and organized labor. This came in the form of an amnesty and access to legalization for close to 3 million unauthorized immigrants. The majority, some 2.3 million, were Mexican. To qualify for legalization, unauthorized immigrants had to prove that they had entered the United States prior to January 1, 1982, had continuously resided in the United States, were law-abiding residents without criminal convictions, spoke English, had a working knowledge of American civics, and were willing to confess that they had entered without authorization or inspection, pay a fine, and pay any back taxes they might owe.

The law placated American organized labor too. Any enterprise employing more than three workers had to verify the immigrant status of their employees or face stiff fines for knowingly hiring unauthorized foreign workers. To heighten border enforcement, the budget of the INS was increased by 50 percent. The Labor Department’s budget was likewise significantly increased to undertake mandated document verification and work site inspections.23 Employers complied by having copies of their workers’ documents, but rarely verified their authenticity. Many enterprises simply turned to hiring Mexican laborers through subcontractors who were responsible for verifications. INS work site inspections became a sham. Employers were given three days’ notice of an upcoming inspection, allowing them to purge their records and those workers they knew were unauthorized.

IRCA’s main impact on Mexican immigration was to turn a long-standing circular migratory process into permanent settlement north of the border. The US government began pouring 90 percent of its INS budget into border interdiction and only 10 percent into workplace verification and employer sanctions. Thus, the probability and cost of getting caught crossing the border rose significantly for unauthorized immigrants, but if they succeeded, they stood excellent chances of avoiding deportation and remaining undetected for years. This fact became a major deterrent to seasonal circular migration, increasing the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants who now had little choice but to stay put and live isolated and fear-filled lives in the United States.

After the passage of the 1965 Hart-Celler Act, the number of Mexican immigrants (authorized and unauthorized) in the United States grew steadily in size and as a percentage of the total immigrant population (see Table 1). Between 1990 and 2010, roughly 7.5 million Mexican immigrants entered the country, many without authorization. They skirted border inspection by taking more dangerous routes northward across the Sonoran Desert into Arizona, raising the danger and mortality of the trek. In 2012, the unauthorized immigrant population of the United States was estimated at 11.2 million, with roughly half (49%) originating in Mexico, while the rest, for the most part, had simply overstayed their visas. The Great Recession of 2008 led many Mexicans to return to their homeland, significantly slowing migration northward. The Pew Research Center estimated that, in 2007, the Mexican unauthorized population in the United States was 6.7 million; by 2014, it had dropped to 5.6 million.24 While Mexicans represented 28 percent of all immigrants in the United States in 2013, by 2017 their proportion was down to 25.4 percent, mainly because of increasing migration from Central America.

Three new draconian immigration laws were enacted in 1996: The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), The Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA), and The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), which was primarily hailed as welfare reform, but which included immigrant provisions. IIRIRA empowered the Border Patrol to admit, detain, and deport, without judicial review, any person arriving at the nation’s border, an authority that also applied to refugees and asylum petitioners.

Since 90% of the budget was allocated to border patrols, H1B holders were kept waiting as there were not enough immigration officers available to do LPR interviews. Appointment dates were not available for those who came here on H1Bs/F1-OPT and had a labour certification. People got LPRs in 3 months back in late 70s and early 80s. Then it went to 6 mo on the average by 1985. After the amnesty, it went to 1-2.5 year wait depending on the jurisdiction.

[Vayutuvan]

Blanket statements of "vast Mexican illegals in the US" is somewhat racist IMHO.

Here is an article talking about the immigration in 21st century.

https://time.com/3742067/history-mexican-immigration/

Migrants from Latin America during the early twentieth century came almost exclusively from Mexico, Puerto Rico, and (to a lesser extent) Cuba. Today, immigrants come from every country in Latin America, and even migration from Mexico has diversified: people come not only from the historical sending states in the Mexican heartland, but also from Mexico’s gulf coast, from the southern states, and from other areas that sent few migrants before the 1980s and 1990s. That means that Mexicans, and Latin Americans more broadly, are creating truly new communities in the United States – communities based around a pan-Latin American identity, as opposed to a regional homeland identity. I think that will be one of the most fascinating areas of research for future historians.

[pravula]

Another aspect of the tariff war is that the US people will not have much variety of non-essential items to buy, at least in the short term. Is that correct? How many billion dollars per year can saved on that account?

IIRC Trump said that about 7 trillion worth investment are going to be invested in USA over several years in a post by bala just recently. It may be exaggerated, but anyway, if easy imports are restricted then what is the plan to start production in the US? Even in India, there are a lot of complaints by major infrastructure companies that skilled labour is hard to get. Some people even suggest that in India, with free ration, many poor people are unwilling to work hard. Will such scenarios happen in the USA?

Its already happening and it has some policy people concerned. https://nypost.com/2025/04/08/opinion/7 ... orce-them/