MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Rakesh]

With the world order changing, expect EU defense companies to be more busy...

Indeed. Well said.

[Bharadwaj]

If we are indeed going down the expected route, the least that can be done is to get the French to invest some money into a silent eagle type treatment for the Rafale. Even a small reduction in the rcs would help decrease the detection range vis a vis the Chinese stealthish fighters.

[TVenky]

I think, it may not happen. Whatever problem 62 Rafale (36+26) cannot solve, I doubt 114 extra of it can solve. I guess we will go heavy on local and we may (may not will) go for 5th gen fighter, as a stop gap. We have everything that we need to move forward, we can make more SU30MKI with Super sukhoi package, update SU30MKI, make more (97) mk1a (or even mk1b with LCAMK2 Tech like wide display, no GAN radar etc), LCAMK2 - 300 in numbers, 2 Seat LCA on the side (OMNI) with Kaveri, AMCA. Meanwhile upgrade Mig 29 one more time with AESA etc. I would also up engine Jags with HF25 and give very long range standoff weapon (say like 200-300 KM sir to ground munitions, to mitigate Jags vulnerability). Enough that we need not spend under 30 billion dollars for 114 Rafale. By buying 114 Rafale, we may get independence from US and Russian but we will be slave to the French.

Is it possible to open up a competition or a "hackathon-like' initiative to upgrade Jaguar engines ?.
I guess French did not screw us with Mirage 2K and Rafale . or Did they ?..

[Rakesh]

Is it possible to open up a competition or a "hackathon-like' initiative to upgrade Jaguar engines ?.
I guess French did not screw us with Mirage 2K and Rafale . or Did they ?..

OEMs - the world over - are only concerned with profit and preserving their IP (Intellectual Property). They will run over you (to protect that) and not even blink an eye. They are in the business to sell and remain profitable. There is no other motivation for them.

The French have reneged on the first Rafale deal.

[Kakkaji]

I fail to understand how the 114 Rafale deal under MRCA makes sense at this time. By the time the first units start arriving, the neighborhood will be awash in 5th gen fighters.

On the face of it, the reported offer by the Russians for SU-57 production in India makes more sense. Quicker start of production, commonality of parts with SU-30mki, (near) 5th gen technology, better technology transfer, lower price etc. I understand there are issues with Russian aircraft performance, but are they so bad that the IAF would rather go with an older generation, more expensive aircraft from France?

[Rakesh]

Air HQ is fully invested (and I don’t mean just financially) in the Rafale. They believe that it can prevail in a conflict against Chinese 5th gen fighters, especially the J-20. Pilots of both squadrons (No 17 Golden Arrows and No 101 Falcons) have nothing but praise for the aircraft and believe that she is an effective multi role platform, which can successfully execute the missions that the IAF demands of her.

Even the “ambiguous” F-35 offer from Trump back in Feb 2025, has not shifted Air HQ’s fixation on the Rafale. Even Air Chief Marshal AP Singh dismissed the idea of a quick induction of the F-35, just based on Trump’s offer and this was reinforced by India's Defence Secretary. This is not to suggest that Air HQ is oblivious to 5th gen platforms. But despite all the J-20s, J-31s in PLAAF service and even with the first flight of the sixth gen J-36, the service is still laser focused on the 4+ gen MRFA contest, with Rafale being the only viable option geopolitically.

Air HQ obviously sees viability in the Rafale platform, that the Su-57 (at present) does not offer. The latter could still very likely fly in IAF colours, but I suspect they are waiting for the Russians to dangle the carrot that Air HQ really wants (the AL-51 turbofan), which is still in development. IMVHO, Su-57 will come…but not at the expense of the MRFA i.e. the Rafale. But get ready for Su-57MKI

P.S. From Dassult’s perspective, FCAS is so far off in the horizon…that upgrading / updating Rafale is the only option for France’s sole feasible fighter aircraft in the first half of the 21st century. F4.1 is already in service, with F4.2 entering service by the end of the decade (or early next). And formal discussions are already being formulated for F5 (nEUROn teaming is one) and there is talk of F6 as well. With Europe taking an increasingly militarized stance (over the US' "informal" withdrawal from NATO), the future for Rafale is actually quite promising.

All of this is weighing heavily on Air HQ.

[Kakkaji]

Thanks Admiral!

[Rakesh]

You are welcome Saar.

Some new info (FWIW)....

Rafale Surge: IAF Eyes 40 More Jets as Navy Deal Nears Signing
https://bharatshakti.in/rafale-surge-ia ... s-signing/
16 April 2025

“Both sides have reached a strategic understanding. This is not just a purchase—it’s a continuity plan,” said a senior official familiar with the negotiations.

Combat-tested in Syria, Libya, and Mali and proven in Indian skies during high-altitude operations in Ladakh, the Rafale has become a linchpin in India’s deterrence posture. With advanced payload capabilities, Meteor air-to-air missiles, SCALP stand-off weapons, and AESA radar, it represents a generational leap over the IAF’s MiG-21, MiG-29, and Jaguar fleets.

The shift away from open bidding under the MRFA framework to a G2G route is being framed as a strategic choice rather than a compromise. With threats evolving rapidly across two fronts and a timeline crunch for capacity building, the G2G model offers speed, assured delivery, and continuity.

While competitors like the F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Saab Gripen-E remain technically in contention under the original MRFA framework, the political and operational momentum is visibly tilted towards Dassault. The IAF’s familiarity with the Rafale, existing base infrastructure, and Navy interoperability gives the French aircraft a distinct edge.

[Rakesh]

No other MRFA contestant offers the flexibility to the IAF, that the Rafale does.

If the walls at Air HQ could speak, you would hear one word repeatedly ---> R-A-F-A-L-E.

This is why the F-35 and the Su-57 are not being considered in the MRFA contest. Whatever "phoren" 5th generation plane that is acquired, it will be separate from the the MRFA contest.

[maitya]

Rakeshji beat me on this ...
Again what does such piecemeal acquisitions mean for MRFA? It never made sense for any other contenders to be acquired, but with such piecemeal acquisitions, the Lic-mfg part also fast becoming a non-sequitur.

Is MRFA now going to transform into MRSFA, effectively making it a two-pony race - ah the tamasha "evolution": MMRCA -> MRFA -> MRSFA.

[Rakesh]

From Air HQ’s perspective, it is a smart move —> Acquire a small number of Rafales and kill the contest.

All the contestants want a minimum order of 100 aircraft to setup a production line. To avoid the geopolitical pressure from Trump (forcing India to select a F-teen), just get a follow-on (albeit small) batch of Rafales.

This avoids Air HQ being tied into a US platform that they really do not want, primarily due to Unkil's unreliability as a partner. And among Unkil's trio (F-15EX, F-18SH and F-21), the Eagle-II represents the greatest danger to acquiring more Rafales. And F-15EX will make the Super Sukhoi upgrade pointless, as it will be a duplication of platforms.

This purchase of 40 additional airframes is also a lot cheaper than acquiring a whole new type and also cheaper than 114 Rafales. Once this is done, they will shift attention to a 5th gen contest (also in small numbers) and IMVHO, it will be between the Su-57 and the F-35. Will post a video (soon) about ACM Chaudhari (retd) on Su-57 production in India.

I am happy if this news is true, because after investing US $1 billion in ISE (plus an additional billion in base infrastructure) it would be absolutely dumb to invest in another phoren 4th generation fighter.

[Hriday]

....
To avoid the geopolitical pressure from Trump (forcing India to select a F-teen), just get a follow-on (albeit small) batch of Rafales.

This purchase of 40 additional airframes is also a lot cheaper than acquiring a whole new type and also cheaper than 114 Rafales. Once this is done, they will shift attention to a 5th gen contest (also in small numbers) and IMVHO, it will be between the Su-57 and the F-35. Will post a video (soon) about ACM Chaudhari (retd) on Su-57 production in India.

I am happy if this news is true, because after investing US $1 billion in ISE (plus an additional billion in base infrastructure) it would be absolutely dumb to invest in another phoren 4th generation fighter.

Rakesh ji great news..As Karan M pointed out in this forum, Rafale, with its small radar, is not suitable to take on Chinese low-observable fighter jets. He also said that the lower your RCS, the more effective will be your electronic warfare against enemy radar that tries to track you. And SU-57 beats Rafale in both these capabilities.

The next question is whether SU-30 or SU-57 can match the performance of Rafale in the ground attack role. Had read about Rafale many years ago but don't remember if there is anything unique to the Rafale aircraft in ground attack. What I know is that it can carry a higher payload than SU-30, and the unique flight path of AASM bombs carried by Rafale is a great capability.

@Firezstarter1 in X, who is a very knowledgeable handle, said that the Rafale+AASM combo is very hard to defeat or intercept. But many in the forum, including Karan M, had said that low-altitude bombing is too risky and stand-off glide bombs and missiles are the future.

It is not easy to pick between Rafale and SU-57.

[maitya]

From Air HQ’s perspective, it is a smart move —> Acquire a small number of Rafales and kill the contest.

All the contestants want a minimum order of 100 aircraft to setup a production line. To avoid the geopolitical pressure from Trump (forcing India to select a F-teen), just get a follow-on (albeit small) batch of Rafales.

This avoids Air HQ being tied into a US platform that they really do not want, primarily due to Unkil's unreliability as a partner. And among Unkil's trio (F-15EX, F-18SH and F-21), the Eagle-II represents the greatest danger to acquiring more Rafales. And F-15EX will make the Super Sukhoi upgrade pointless, as it will be a duplication of platforms.

This purchase of 40 additional airframes is also a lot cheaper than acquiring a whole new type and also cheaper than 114 Rafales. Once this is done, they will shift attention to a 5th gen contest (also in small numbers) and IMVHO, it will be between the Su-57 and the F-35. Will post a video (soon) about ACM Chaudhari (retd) on Su-57 production in India.

I am happy if this news is true, because after investing US $1 billion in ISE (plus an additional billion in base infrastructure) it would be absolutely dumb to invest in another phoren 4th generation fighter.

On a second thought, now 40 + 26 is a big enough deal, to have the offsets partially fund the $5B+ asking from the French, for the AMCA 5+ Gen TF joint dev program.
Ofcourse, question remains, if French were able to neatly sidestep the offset obligations of the original 36-aircraft deal, what's changed now?
Time will tell ...

Added Later: I sincerely hope we don't get bogged down into some F5 std mumbo-jumbo, and stick to F4 version (including ISE), and get these in accelerated delivery mode.
Max we can ask for, is to
i) either allow our GaN (Virupaksa variant) AESA be allowed to be included for all 76 (40 +36) platforms - or maybe all ~100 platforms (40 + 36 + 26).
OR
ii) another ToAsT deal for the M88-2 TFs (copy-pasted from the F414 deal).

[Rakesh]

Will post a video (soon) about ACM Chaudhari (retd) on Su-57 production in India.

Video is taken from someone's mobile phone, so the voice is not very clear. Max out your volume to high. If you are at work ( ), please use headphones.

VIDEO: https://x.com/kishanchand_89/status/1912412304270119174 ---> Russian media TASS asked a big question to the former chief of Indian Air Force on Russian Su-57 production In India.

[Rakesh]

As Karan M pointed out in this forum, Rafale, with its small radar, is not suitable to take on Chinese low-observable fighter jets. He also said that the lower your RCS, the more effective will be your electronic warfare against enemy radar that tries to track you. And SU-57 beats Rafale in both these capabilities.

The next question is whether SU-30 or SU-57 can match the performance of Rafale in the ground attack role. Had read about Rafale many years ago but don't remember if there is anything unique to the Rafale aircraft in ground attack. What I know is that it can carry a higher payload than SU-30, and the unique flight path of AASM bombs carried by Rafale is a great capability.

@Firezstarter1 in X, who is a very knowledgeable handle, said that the Rafale+AASM combo is very hard to defeat or intercept. But many in the forum, including Karan M, had said that low-altitude bombing is too risky and stand-off glide bombs and missiles are the future.

It is not easy to pick between Rafale and SU-57.

You will likely not have to pick between Rafale and Su-57. But it will be a monumental waste of money (which will make our local programs suffer). And both KaranM and @Firestarter1 are correct. Also see below...

Rafale and Su-30MKI together will be deadly combination, says IAF Vice-Chief Air Marshal Bhaduria
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/eco ... 2019-07-12
12 July 2019

"Once the Su-30MKI and the Rafale start operating together, it will be a potent combination against our adversaries, be it Pakistan or anybody else. Any adversary would be worried about such a combination," Air Force Vice-Chief Air Marshal RKS Bhadauria said in New Delhi.

The Super Sukhoi upgrade is going to be truly a force to reckon with and will take the Rambha-Katrina combination to a whole other level. The combination of both platforms will play to each other's strengths and negate each other's weaknesses. And with the arrival of Gandiva (Astra Mk3) + Virupaksha AESA + Rudram + local stand off weaponry, you got one potent platform in the Super Sukhoi. KaranM can talk more about this, if he reads this thread.

[Rakesh]

On a second thought, now 40 + 26 is a big enough deal, to have the offsets partially fund the $5B+ asking from the French, for the AMCA 5+ Gen TF joint dev program.
Ofcourse, question remains, if French were able to neatly sidestep the offset obligations of the original 36-aircraft deal, what's changed now?
Time will tell ...

Added Later: I sincerely hope we don't get bogged down into some F5 std mumbo-jumbo, and stick to F4 version (including ISE), and get these in accelerated delivery mode.
Max we can ask for, is to
i) either allow our GaN (Virupaksa variant) AESA be allowed to be included for all 76 (40 +36) platforms - or maybe all ~100 platforms (40 + 36 + 26).
OR
ii) another ToAsT deal for the M88-2 TFs (copy-pasted from the F414 deal).

We will ask for i) and then get laughed out of the room. Then we will walk back into the same room and gleefully accept ii) in diluted form. But in the annual MoD brochure, it will be called Make in India i.e. producing M-88 from the raw material stage, just like with the AL-31FP Rinse & Repeat.

We went through i) with the Indian Navy asking for the Uttam radar on their upcoming Rafale Ms. We were given an out-of-this-world quote and long lead time, which we then (rightfully) abandoned. We cannot afford to waste time - for now - on mating Indian radars with phoren platforms. At a future mid-life upgrade, it could be looked at.

In all honesty though...the Rafale is a black box, which the French will not allow us to open. When it comes time to upgrade the Rafale, we will pay for them at exorbitant costs...just like how the GOI did with the Mirage 2000I/TI upgrade. The focus should be on completing the Super Sukhoi upgrade much quicker and across a wider range of the fleet + rapid induction of Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2. Everything else is a distraction.

[Rakesh]

The Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 en route to a mega-contract with India
https://www.avionslegendaires.net/2025/ ... vec-linde/
16 April 2025

With a very large check with a lot of zero, enough to delight the employees of the companies integrated into the Rafale program.

^^^ The main relevant point of the article

Use google translate to read the above link in English. But read these tweets before you click on the above link. They are from a well-known French military aviation blogger (Philippe Amiel).

https://x.com/top_force/status/1912771513465385196 ---> The Dassault Rafale F4 on its way to a mega contract (40 to 114) with India. Negotiations different from those of the recently revealed contract for 26 navalized examples.

https://x.com/RafaleFan/status/1912801225826877808 ---> The biggest flaw of this site: it prioritizes quantity over quality. As soon as the slightest "information" circulates, it becomes an article. We have lost count of the number of resales of Mirage 2000s in all directions, and the hopes of sales in all countries of the world concerning the Rafale.

https://x.com/Battersea4ever/status/1912844455951892927 ---> And his lack of source. And the fact that he blocks you from posting comments. Beyond that, he's leeching everything from our forums.
^^^ French counterpart of IDRW

[maitya]

...
Max we can ask for, is to
i) either allow our GaN (Virupaksa variant) AESA be allowed to be included for all 76 (40 +36) platforms - or maybe all ~100 platforms (40 + 36 + 26).
...

...
We went through i) with the Indian Navy asking for the Uttam radar on their upcoming Rafale Ms. We were given an out-of-this-world quote and long lead time, which we then (rightfully) abandoned. We cannot afford to waste time - for now - on mating Indian radars with phoren platforms. At a future mid-life upgrade, it could be looked at.
...

To be fair, just asking to replace the radar, without replacing the MC in tandem, is not going to go anywhere. And for Rafale, the MDPU, like all other MCs, integrates all it's sensors (FSO/IRST, Spectra, IFF, Datalink, MAWS etc) - which in turn means, sharing each of these sensors/systems software (or atleast the APIs).
In short, stuff that makes Rafale, a Rafale - I doubt Dassault would be that generous, but I can be wrong!!

Much more palatable is some-sort of a wishy-washy M88-2 ToAsT deal - nothing much in it that will "enrich" us (wrt TF mfg technology) anyway!! Maybe the LPT (Gamma TiAl) would have been interesting, but that's about it really.

PS: The MC h/w may-not be much of an issue, given the type of MC h/w we have developed over the years, for the LCA series, MiG-29s, Su-30MKIs etc.

[Rakesh]

In India's quest for Rafale jets for navy, air force, why need overrides cost
https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-i ... 2025-04-17
17 April 2025

Even as the Indian and French governments are working hard to finalise an agreement to buy 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets for the Indian Navy, a deal expected to be signed by the month-end, the corridors of Vayu Bhawan are abuzz with the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) intent to procure 40 additional Rafale jets.

While no senior IAF official has officially confirmed the plan, the high cost of the aircraft will be a determinant in the deliberations on any such potential procurement. It is learnt that France has expressed interest in the IAF’s programme to acquire 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA). Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of Rafale, has indicated willingness to set up an assembly line in India provided the company secures a substantially big purchase order.

[Rakesh]

X-Post from the Indian Naval Aviation thread...

India, France to sign their largest ever deal for Rafale-Marine fighter jets on April 28
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 419202630/
19 April 2025

From the above article....

A new tender from the Indian Air Force for competition for multirole fighter aircraft is expected to be issued soon. However, the Indian Air Force has shown keenness to acquire a particular aircraft to meet its immediate requirements.

[drnayar]

I presume the " particular" denotes the latest Rafale variant f4 maybe the f5 !

[Rakesh]

Allies Rethink F-35 over Trump’s "Kill Switch" | Vantage with Palki Sharma

U.S. allies are rethinking their F-35 fighter jet purchases amid concerns over Trump's "kill switch" rumours. Over 1,000 F-35s are in operation across 20 countries, but geopolitical uncertainty raises doubts. Portugal, Canada, and Germany are reconsidering cancelling their purchases.

[Rakesh]

India Snubs US on F-35 Deal, MRFA List Finalized—Blowback Over Anti-India Propaganda
https://timesindian.com/news/india-snub ... propaganda
16 May 2025

India will not hold talks with the US over the F-35 fighter jets amid outrage over biased American media coverage favoring Pakistan. MRFA list is ready, signaling a strategic snub to Washington.