Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[uddu]

Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture)

[drnayar]

[Haresh]

Riding The Tiger: Why The Anglosphere Should Be Wary of India
A tale of Hindu nationalism and H-1Bs

https://knightsofthegreenshield.substac ... nglosphere

[Vayutuvan]

@Haresh ji, I read his latest rant on substack on the effects of an Indo-Pakistani war on Britain. This fellow is 100% cuckoo.

[Vayutuvan]

An India-Pakistan War could break British politics
Conflict in South Asia is one of the biggest threats to our domestic security
SAM BIDWELL
APR 17, 2025

https://substack.com/@knightofthegreens ... -161558260

[sanjaykumar]

Remarkable. No introspection on britains’s role in this far off ethnic conflict.


Most of the article is unexceptionable. In Canada we can see how the Khalistani agenda has hijacked the political discourse.

I do not think there will be a war. Unless Pakistani generals think they have looted that benighted nation sufficient for their seven succeeding generations.

Bidwell is very careful to give British alienation of its Muslims a wide berth. No introspection on why Muslims seem to be so angry in Britain. And why Indians are generally quite happy to be there.

But that would be telling. In all three senses of the word.

[Tanaji]

Riding The Tiger: Why The Anglosphere Should Be Wary of India
A tale of Hindu nationalism and H-1Bs

https://knightsofthegreenshield.substac ... nglosphere

That article and the other one was such a tiring read and in the end I had to start skimming it due to the verbiage. The author comes off as one of those anti-vaxxers on Facebook that write “scholarly” articles but are based on selective numbers and no grounding in the cause and effect. Had this been submitted to any half decent professor at even under grad review as an assignment, it would rate a C with suggestions on remedial course on writing.

The hypocrisy, dual standards and lack of history is breath taking. The whole “nuclear family” argument was

I blame Hareshji for losing half an hour of my life that I shall never get back

[Haresh]

Riding The Tiger: Why The Anglosphere Should Be Wary of India
A tale of Hindu nationalism and H-1Bs

https://knightsofthegreenshield.substac ... nglosphere

I blame Hareshji for losing half an hour of my life that I shall never get back

it is very tiresome.
But what I found really offensive was just the entire lack of introspection.

He complains about how Indians basically look after themselves, everyone does.
The comments about the Nijjar murder, laying the blame on the Indian govt as if it is a fact, no one has been found guilty as far as I know, has the link been proven ? If it has, why is the international media so quite ?

Then the comments about the Uniform Civil code, why can Western nations have one law for all, but not others ?

It is basically a complaint that the "dark folks" are getting too uppity and they can no longer be controlled.

[sanjaykumar]

Christian’s and Muslims. Ame very close to a civil in Britain a few short months ago.

The author needs to continue his deep researches in other localities than Lecicester.

[uddu]

J Sai Deepak । Muslims not in The Independence Movement

[ricky_v]

an extremely exhaustive look at space weaponisation capabilities, tracking and overall aerospace analysis

https://www.csis.org/analysis/space-thr ... sment-2025

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws. ... OVb35jwkU5

WELCOME TO THE 2025 SPACE THREAT ASSESSMENT

by the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This resource for policymakers and the public leverages open-source information to assess key developments in foreign counterspace weapons. Drawing on eight years of collected data and analyses, this series describes trends in the development,
testing, and use of counterspace weapons and enables readers to develop a deeper understanding of threats to U.S. national security interests in space.


Since the publication of the 2024 Space Threat Assessment, there have been
few headline-grabbing counterspace developments. No nation was known
to have tested or used kinetic anti-satellite missiles, commonly called direct
ascent anti-satellite (DA ASAT) weapons. There was no public indication that
any nation tested or used counterspace weapons such as laser dazzlers or
directed energy weapons. While Russia’s pursuit of a nuclear anti-satellite
capability topped the news last year, no information has publicly surfaced
revealing how close Russia might be to launching this system, though the
United States and its international partners remain concerned that Russia
could decide to deploy such a weapon.1
But a closer look reveals that the past year, from the perspective of counter
space developments, has been anything but uneventful. Rather than entirely
new developments, the past year mostly witnessed a continuation of the
worrisome trends discussed in prior reports, notably widespread jamming
and spoofing of GPS signals in and around conflict zones, including near and
in Russia and throughout the Middle East.2 Chinese and Russian satellites in
both low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) continue to
display more and more advanced maneuvering capabilities, demonstrating
operator proficiency and tactics, techniques, and procedures that can be
used for space warfighting and alarming U.S. and allied officials.3 Finally,
U.S. companies providing a commercial space service to government users,
particularly defense and military ones, remain squarely in the crosshairs of
nation states, with Russia in particular vocal about its intention to consider


commercial assets used by the U.S. military as legitimate targets.4

[drnayar]

Houthis attacked Ben gurion airport with ballistic missiles, despite extensive bombing by us navy. !!..

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
EAM at Arctic Circle India Forum 2025.

[Manish_P]

Houthis attacked Ben gurion airport with ballistic missiles, despite extensive bombing by us navy. !!..

Just goes to prove the importance of having lots and lots of missiles, Smart and dumb, in your inventory.

We are going to need them

[Vayutuvan]

We need a lot of expendable drones too.

[A_Gupta]

"The US-Israel security relationship is built upon the idea of Israel maintaining a Qualitative Military Edge (QME), which is the ability to deter threats and rapidly achieve superiority in battle. The US actively works to ensure Israel's QME through various means, including providing advanced weapons systems, security assistance, and pre-positioning military equipment."

--- an Indian commentator believes that Trump, in his recent Saudi/West Asia visit, has sold out QME, and Israel is anxious.

Bloomberg on the topic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ulf-states

The deals themselves appear to be so large — $142 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia and $243 billion to Qatar, with a focus on defense — that some in Israel fear they could reduce the longstanding US guarantee of its regional military superiority, the so-called Qualitative Military Edge.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump- ... n-command/

The Trump administration is planning to move Greenland from the purview of U.S. European Command to U.S. Northern Command, several U.S. officials told CBS News.

Moving Greenland to Northern Command, which is in charge of defending the homeland, is a symbolic statement suggesting a view of Greenland as more a part of the defense of the U.S. than of Europe. In the eyes of the U.S., the move treats Greenland more like Canada and less like a part of the Kingdom of Denmark.

[A_Gupta]

In its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank says “Most of the developing world is turning into a development-free zone”. “Except for China, it could take these economies about two decades to recoup the losses of the 2020s”.

(This does not include India)

[A_Gupta]

In this 3:39 clip, EAM Jaishankar gives the Europeans some good advice and also outlines India's strategic interests in the Mediterranean.
https://youtu.be/yHF7cdsASlY?si=xs4uqnuffjCoLVcH

[ricky_v]

an exhaustive report on democracy in sooth asia through the eyes of the us
https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/file ... -final.pdf

bangladesh

The United States, a longtime partner of Bangladesh, has provided significant assistance to Bangladesh in
areas such as human rights, governance, development aid, and military cooperation. USAID has been instru
mental in funding Bangladesh’s health, agriculture, economic reforms, and disaster relief efforts, contrib
uting nearly $300 million annually and $500 million in 2024 alone, not including the additional funding to
support the Rohingya refugees.111 U.S. assistance aimed at specifically supporting governance in Bangladesh has
totaled over $800 million from 2005 to 2024.112 About half of this funding has been directed toward key areas
such as countering violent extremism, enhancing democratic participation and civil society, strengthening
legal and judicial institutions, promoting human rights, supporting legislatures and political parties, combating
corruption, improving election processes, and fostering media freedom.113 Halting these programs in Bangladesh
undermines America’s ability to support a fragile democratic partner as it undergoes a critical period of
political transition.

bhutan

Bhutan retains a warm and informal relationship with the United States and engages in diplomatic rela
tions with U.S. officials through the Indian Embassy in Washington, D.C.124 While it has not received bilat
eral funding from USAID, Bhutan has benefited from participation in regional health, energy, disaster
relief, infrastructure, and governance development programs funded by USAID, like the South Asia
Regional Energy Partnership.125 It also receives assistance from the U.S. State Department to combat human trafficking and improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education.126
While changes to current U.S. aid policy likely will not have an immediate or direct impact, Thimphu is con
cerned about negative economic consequences due to inflation and currency concerns with some of its
largest trade partners, particularly Bangladesh.127 In addition, the absence of these assistance measures
takes away a useful method by which the United States could engage, albeit informally, with the small
Himalayan nation that is of geostrategic importance.

maldives

Washington has been making overtures to Malé since 2018: the United States supplied roughly $36 million in assistance—$10.8 million of which focused on improving the Maldives’ maritime security capabilities—and opened an embassy there in 2023.1 As previously mentioned, the Maldives had received significant U.S. funding, with USAID programs focusing on “protecting the environment, augmenting democratic governance, and strengthening public financial management.”150 USAID programs were implemented during the first Trump administration to help the
Maldives manage its high debt to China, initially accrued from 2012 through 2017. Malé owes $1.37 billion to
Beijing, or about 40 percent of its total debt.151 One of the key areas supported by USAID’s flagship democracy
support program was the development of the Maldives’ legal and justice sector. However, Maldivian leaders have
been increasing pressure on the judiciary, which many Maldivians view an assault on judicial independence.
Three Supreme Court judges were suspended after a likely illegal constitutional amendment was passed with almost no debate, reducing the size of the Supreme Court from seven to five.152 Despite the freezing of aid
funds, U.S. military-to-military engagements continue, with joint military exercises that help to address
porous borders, counter narcotics trafficking, and build maritime domain awareness. However, long-term
strengthening of democratic infrastructure and good governance principles could play a role in diminishing
the appeal of extremism and terrorism in a country that has been the source of a significant number of foreign
terrorist fighters.15

nepal

One of the major obstacles to Nepal’s democratic development is its “Kathmandu-centric” governance.156
Since the implementation of federalism in 2015, democratic progress at the provincial and local levels has
been slow and inconsistent, exacerbating challenges in delivering essential resources.157 The lack of political
representation has deepened the north–south divide, especially in the southern Terai region, home to ethnic
Madhesi populations and minority Dalit communities, who experience marginalization, repression, and
restrictions on civil liberties, including media freedom.158


The United States has long supported Nepal’s democratic development, most recently agreeing
in 2022 to provide nearly $60 million to support civil ociety, media, and youth participation.170 U.S. diplomatic efforts emphasized multiparty engagement and democratic governance and increased U.S.–Nepal educational exchanges.171 Two of the report authors visited Nepal in December 2024 and observed the critical role
that U.S. assistance plays in empowering youth and women, dismantling structural barriers to political
participation, and fostering incremental progress of Nepal’s democracy through USAID programs implemented by organizations like the Asia Foundation, the National Democratic Institute, and IRI.1


In 2022, the United States signed a Millennium Challenge Corporation agreement for grant funding
totaling $500 million for Nepali transport and power projects. With USAID’s $659 million, five-year commitment to Nepal also signed that year, the total U.S. aid commitment—approximately $1.2 billion over multiple
years—represented the largest U.S. government commitment to Nepal to date.173 It took five years for Nepal’s
parliament to ratify the MCC agreement, in part due to Chinese pressure on Nepali politicians not to accept
the funding and a sophisticated disinformation campaign.174 Unfortunately, funding for the hard-fought
U.S. assistance program was suspended by the Trump administration in January 2025 as part of a 90-day
review of all U.S. foreign aid programs, although the Trump administration recently allowed select activities of the program to resume.175 Cancellation of the full program would create enormous difficulties for
Nepal’s economy and create an opportunity for China to fill the assistance gap left by Washington.176

sri lanka

The United States has played a prominent role in supporting Sri Lanka’s democracy and development,
particularly through USAID initiatives aimed at promoting governance, civil society, justice, and media
freedom. USAID’s more than $2 billion investment in the country during the last several decades has included
programs to counter misinformation, strengthen digital literacy, promote market-driven growth, and
enhance the country’s resilience to shocks and stresses.
For example, one program was the Inclusive Political Processes, which included investment of $17 million over
four years in support of Parliament, other government institutions, and civil society organizations to increase
the integration of youth, women, and other underrepresented groups in leadership roles.219
USAID also played a critical role in supporting the Ministry of Finance with technical assistance for effective public financial management systems, macro fiscal stability, and evidence-driven economic policy. Through
investment of $19 million over five years, the program included strengthening accountable public investment
management and reducing vulnerabilities to unsustainable public debt.220 However, the recent halt in USAID
funding has encouraged Sri Lankans to look for alternatives to U.S. assistance.221 It is highly likely China will
offer to step into the breach.

measures suggested:

Establish a coordinator for countering foreign propaganda in the White House to lead interagency
efforts to combat PRC propaganda. Putting a senior White House official in charge of interagency coordination of U.S. efforts to combat propaganda globally would overcome the shortcomings of the GEC, which
Congress criticized for being unable to authoritatively coordinate and direct the interagency. The coordi
nator could lead efforts within the U.S. government to raise awareness about malign CCP (and Russian) influ
ence aimed at undermining democratic institutions in developing countries. The coordinator would also be
responsible for generating policy ideas for creating resilience and using prevention and mitigation tools to
fight propaganda and disinformation abroad.


Revive the Blue Dot Network. This was a signature initiative of the first Trump administration aimed at
reducing China’s ability to corrupt foreign leaders by offering large loans for financially unsustainable infra
structure projects. The first Trump administration launched the Blue Dot Network with the Japanese and
Australian governments to assist countries in determining whether proposed infrastructure projects are
commercially viable and sustainable.241 The aim was to encourage greater transparency in lending and high
er-quality projects. The second Trump administration should consider breathing new life into this well-conceived initiative for which there remains a need

Continue to fund and support legitimate investigative journalists and media outlets to promote press freedom. Access to legitimate, independent journalism is a core tenet of democratic governance, and access to local journalism has been directly tied to voter turnout.243 Washington should continue to promote and fund independent journalists and media outlets and pair with credible fact-checking NGOs with multilingual specialists and representatives tied to local social media outlets.244 Part of this effort must be to promote independent fact-checking organizations that use humans augmented by AI-enabled verification. Multiple studies
have shown that AI verification alone can promote disinformation campaigns because it learns by ingesting
bad data.245 These resources can also help track attribution and sources of information and can inform the U.S. State Department and local governments about regimes or institutions involved in disinformation campaigns.246 The Trump administration will likely want to survey the organizations that do this work before choosing its partners, but ending this work altogether would be a grave mistake. The PRC is already touting its interest in shaping Nepal’s AI policy, for example, with the use of DeepSeek.

Tackle foreign propaganda by funding media literacy courses. The United States should reinstate funding for media literacy efforts across South Asia to equip citizens with the skills needed to identify false narratives, fight cognitive or confirmation biases, and empower them to participate in the democratic process. Materials must be accessible to all members of society, meaning resources should be available in local languages and come from trusted educators with connections across the local community. The United States should also strive to ensure that these efforts are not viewed as aligned with or against any specific political party. Studies have shown that without media literacy and critical thinking skills that teach source attribution, motivation, and bias, citizens can easily fall into the trap of self-selecting partisan or bad sources, which contributes to polarizing societies.247 Funding this critical skill set across South Asia, as USAID previously did, would help to ensure democratic development over the long term

Foster inclusive political participation for women, youth, and minority groups across the region. To overcome the barriers to democratic political participation in the region women, youth, and minority groups face, existing U.S. programs that address these structural challenges must be continued. Initiatives such as the Youth South Asian Leaders Initiative (YSALI), launched by the U.S. Department of State in 2024, play
an essential role in engaging youth and women in democracy.250 YSALI can drive positive democratic change by
enhancing civic participation and fostering connectivity networks for the more than 420 million South Asians
from age 18 to 30 across the region.251 Sustaining such programs will empower leaders and equip them with the
tools to influence their countries’ future democratic politics. Additionally, Washington should reinstate
USAID programs focused on legislative strengthening, civic engagement, and leadership training.