Pahalgam Terror Attack: News & Discussion

[Tanaji]

AmberG : I think the theory that Pak is nuke nude was first proposed by NNN on this forum. With him, one could never be sure what was in jest and what was serious, but that theory gained a life of its own. And as you say obviously no proof was offered in support.

Many moons ago the Indian deterrent was not even mated with the cores kept separate at BARC. That policy was shelved when the subs came online or possibly earlier.

[Ramesh]

Long Reply - But it is important (lot of information) to put it here:

This is misreading of what I wrote. I suggested PALs used only for Puke land weapons not for India. Please re-read since I never suggested that. You are inaccurate about this.

... The rest of your stuff is based on reports from both China and US.

I firmly believe Pak land is nuke nude and they are bluffing.

Balaji: Thank you for the clarification, but I must respectfully reiterate that there was no misreading on my part. I understood that your reference to Permissive Action Links (PALs) pertained to Pakistani weapons, not India's. My earlier point was simply to clarify that even the suggestion that the U.S. imposed PALs or exercised direct control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is unsupported by any credible, evidence.

Few words of On PALs and Command Systems:

PALs are technical safeguards developed to prevent unauthorized arming or detonation of nuclear weapons. Originating in the United States, these systems typically involve electronic locking mechanisms and authentication protocols that restrict access to nuclear warheads unless proper authorization codes are entered.

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Reasoned debate is valuable, but it must remain tethered to what is scientifically observable and strategically coherent.

Amber G thank you for sharing your pearls of wisdom in the physics and other threads, I really appreciate them.

Couple of 2 naya paisa points from my side:

1. Pakistan tested nuclear device is not questionable. It did so in the Chagai tests. What is under question is the number and type of devices that it holds in its arsenal. Various numbers keep floating around, but on the face of it they appear to be quoted to maintain the balance of power or terror.. whatever term one would prefer to use. Devices require raw material which in turn need to be produced using reactors. The side product is electricity. Now, where and when did they produce the quantum of power which would indicate that they have the building blocks.
That leaves the second source, that they got the device in a readymade state. How many would China transfer and would it transfer repeatedly?

2. Regarding the issue of chain of command: Who controls it and what prevents the person controlling it from declaring a coup? The head of SPD does not figure high in the internal pecking order at the table neither does the Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff.
They are also supposed to have Nasr, a short range rocket with tactical warhead. Who would control the deployment of this mythical creature? It's too low range to be controlled centrally and high enough on the escalation ladder to be left to Div or Corps commanders..

So, to summarise:
1. They do have devices but not as many as other powers would want us to believe.
2. Will the decision making chain function in the fog of war is not clear.
3. Do they have a death wish to go for the first strike? Very doubtful.

[Tanaji]

Exactly. We don't have the means for the army to do a big arrow offensive and `Cut Pak in two', which is the wet dream of many of us.
Anything short of that result will be spun as a Pak victory - against a much bigger enemy etc.

Economic pressure hurts them more and that is where we are strongest relative to Pak.
If they want to do exchange of fire across the LOC that's fine too - they will find it less affordable, they run out of ammo faster and their
Baluch and KP insurgencies start heating up - while we hopefully curtail the 4th column in India.

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

[birjur]

I do think this attack is a trap laid by the Pakistani military with the ultimate decision makers being the Chinese. The Pakistan populace is losing its respect for its men in uniform and fauj see the signs of this. A conflict with India would allow them to save face. Enter the Chinese. They can arm and provide intelligence support to the Pakis like the West has done with Ukraine and bleed a superior force. They can fight India to the last Pakistani and I think unless our terrorist neighbour is hit hard with the initial strikes, they will up the ante on the escalation ladder until global powers force a stalemate which in the end is a loss for India. The Chinese would love for us to lose 10-20% of our air force, a few ships and exhaust our Brahmos supply on the inbreds. The only way to avoid this is to pursue non military action or knock them out in Day 1.

If no military action is pursued the BJP will lose face and electoral support and give RG a lifeline. Modi would have a very difficult time surviving this especially with the aggressive statements even traitors such as Owaisi are making now vis a vis Pakistan.

In the end, aggressive water and financial hits/sanctions to Pakistan will have to be pursued continuously with no inch given. Militarily, the Pakistanis should continue to be forced to be on alert and if anything baited into attacking first. If all else fails, when they do lose vigilance, be it tomorrow, next week or next month, they should wake up one morning experiencing a deep sense of loss and feeling impotent to respond.

[A_Gupta]

a. This should be addressed to Pakistan pasand folks also, and
b. Who am I to speak for the people of India? Nobody.
But I hope I have captured the mood of the country:

To any Pakistani who may read this:

The people of India have take to heart Army Chief Asim Munir's statement that Pakistanis belong to a superior ideology, a superior culture.

Iqbal's words have force:

"Apni Millat Par Qiyas Aqwam-e-Maghrib Se Na Kar
Khas Hai Tarkeeb Mein Qoum-e-Rusool-e-Hashmi".

"Judge not your nation on the criteria of other (Western) nations
Special in composition is the Hashimi Prophet’s nation"

The people of India agree with Asim Munir that Pakistanis are different from Hindus in every possible way. Pakistanis' religion is different, customs are different, thoughts are different, ambitions are different.

The people of India have only the humble and worldly ambition of creating a better life for all Indians, encapsulated in the slogan to be a developed country by 2047. No doubt Pakistanis' ambitions are different.

The people of India have decided that they do not want anything to do with the superior ideology and culture. They agree that Pakistan belongs to a different order of civilization. The people of India have contemplated the doctrine of the Pakistani Army, Brigadier S.K Malik's "The Quranic Concept of War" and what the Army's purpose is. They agree that disputes over material things, like borders, river water, trade, movement of people, and such can be resolved through talking with each other; but the root ideological difference cannot be resolved by any amount of talking. One side or the other must perish. The violence against the people of India will not end as long as someone capable of holding a weapon adheres to the Pakistani ideology.

It is your country, your Army and your choice about what you are going to do about it.

[williams]

Very good discussion on some of the technical aspects of Paki Nukes. I just want to debunk some of the Paki nuclear doctrinal myths here for the lurkers.

1. Pakis will use tactical nuke if India captures territory. - From the Indian doctrinal perspective any use of nuclear weapons will entail a devastating nuclear response. India also has the right to pre-empt any use of nuclear weapons if there is credible knowledge of the intend to use of nuclear weapons.

2. India cannot conduct conventional kinetic war with Pakistan, because Pakistan is irrational and will use nuclear weapons. This myth is busted during Kargil, URI and Balakote. Paki generals will not accumulate assets both in Pakistan and outside if they are irrational. They are ready to use their Abduls as cannon fooder but will do everything to protect their life and limb.

3. India does not have the capability or the will to use nuclear weapons when the time comes. This is the biggest myth that is floating around. India has enormous capability to respond with nuclear weapons not just against Pakistan, but very well against China. And over years India has enough capability to preempt such an attack. We have well trained and technically viable SIGINT and HUMINT capability to detect the use of such weapons in both the countries.

4 Indian conventional kinetic capability against the Pakis are limited because of the fear of their nuclear weapons and Pakis have significant conventional capability This is another myth. Indian democracy, civilian control of the military and belief in humanity, make her respond in calibrated manner and she will take her time. However when the time comes to respond and the weight of the will of her people is forced on her leaders, they will respond quite effectively and ruthlessly. It will not be tactical brilliant, but strategically devastating to her enemies. If that is not true why would the Chinese ask for a thaw after 4 years of confrontation?

[Vayutuvan]

I didn't see this news posted here in this thread.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 58421.cms

Pahalgam attack aftermath: Long leaves cancelled at ordnance factories

Shishir Arya, Mazhar Ali & Siddharth Pandey / TNN / Updated: May 4, 2025, 04:45 IST

NAGPUR/JABALPUR/KOLKATA: Amid surging tensions with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack, Munitions India Limited (MIL), agglomerate of the 12 ordnance factories across the country, has cancelled long leaves of its employees at most plants, sources told TOI on Friday. No leave beyond two days is permitted for the next two months.

Senior management sources, including those on the board, denied the directive had anything to do with the post-April 22 tension. The official reason - from Ordnance Factory Chandrapur to Jabalpur - is that they have missed production targets for April and are catching up. Officials at Chandrapur cited pressure of global export orders.

MIL said it put its employees on "alert mode" after the Pahalgam attack. "If there is urgency to expedite our production, we should be able to do it... But there is no official decision to cancel leave of employees across the 12 factories," a senior MIL official told TOI.
...

[Vayutuvan]

B. Clinton admitted China into WTO and that started the true rise of China in the world.

I firmly believe Pak land is nuke nude and they are bluffing.

Bala gaaru, one small nit. India canvassed and helped China getting admitted into WTO.

[williams]

Exactly. We don't have the means for the army to do a big arrow offensive and `Cut Pak in two', which is the wet dream of many of us.
Anything short of that result will be spun as a Pak victory - against a much bigger enemy etc.

Economic pressure hurts them more and that is where we are strongest relative to Pak.
If they want to do exchange of fire across the LOC that's fine too - they will find it less affordable, they run out of ammo faster and their
Baluch and KP insurgencies start heating up - while we hopefully curtail the 4th column in India.

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

Tanaji sir,
Let us think through what should be the political objective after this inhuman attack by the Paki sponsored terrorists?

1. Avoid such future attacks and ensure Kashmir will transition into a peaceful state with a tourist economy thriving - We don't need to take out PA for this; we could improve our internal security, bring back area domination patrols and some form of TSD type intelligence set up to take out the OGWs and hence remove the possibility of large scale terrorist attack.
2. Make sure Pakis feel the pain of sponsoring terrorist acts against India - For this, all the diplomatic action taken will suffice. In six months Paki economy will be in the doldrums without even firing a bullet.
3. Deter Paki leadership from sponsoring terrorist attacks against India - We have not done this part yet. Paki Military leadership needs to have a fear of their life every time they send Jihadis to India. We need to conduct Israeli-style ops to take out this leadership. Indian offensive intelligence capability needs an excellent upgrade to do this. Hopefully, Doval and the company are working towards this.
4. Show the world that no power can play with India and get away with it - We need to demonstrate the use of our hard power. Such a demonstration will happen in a few days to a few weeks. 32 Squads are unsuitable for an invasion or even achieving air superiority in enemy territory, but it is good enough to defend and thwart any enemy intrusion into our airspace. Hence, as an armchair general, I would use our Naval assets to demonstrate our hard power and keep the powder dry to deal with the aftermath. We have the precision strike capability to do just that. We could add a few SEAD/Fire assault/Tactical salami-slicing ops.

The bottom line is that our military leadership knows our forces' strengths and weaknesses. Our political leadership have provided the freedom and time to respond. They are not sleeping but working out a good plan. Our job as armchair generals is not just to do rational analysis but also to influence the enemy narrative that India is weak-kneed and will do nothing if their citizens are murdered through enemy proxies.

[chetak]

looks like someone has just found a work husband

maybe, this is what munir means by "Ghus Ke Marenge" pakjabi ishtyle

[williams]

Instagram Fake. But nicely done

[ShauryaT]

During the 1999 Kargil War, the U.S. and other powers pressured both India and Pakistan to exercise nuclear restraint, but the suggestion that "PALs" were used to control India is inaccurate. India had (and still has) full control over its arsenal.


Sorry but Mix of half-truths, unverifiable claims, reliance on rumor, speculation, and no citations or verifiable references...

Thanks AmberG for setting the record straight. Part of the lament is many make posts without reference or knowledge of primary or reliable secondary sources. Pakistan too has a fairly credible NCA with an SPD of 25K dedicated personnel to control and secure their nuclear arsenal including their tactical nuke platforms, such as the Nasr. Pakistan has not tested any plutonium based designs, although IIRC they did manage to get WGPu - circa 2006? The china assistance in ALL their nuclear devices, materials and deliveries is clear enough. The design and materials of its nuclear devices would translate to delivery mechanisms and payloads of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

[ShauryaT]

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

Tanaji: The surface numbers do not provide the full picture. For example: The Indian Air Force holds a 3:1 advantage in total payload capacity over the Pakistan Air Force, enabling larger-scale, longer-range, and multi-axis strike campaigns. The IAF also benefits from better aerial refueling, ISR, and multirole flexibility, making this advantage not just quantitative but operationally decisive. The IAF ability to penetrate and neutralize Pakistani SAM Coverage is indeed formidable using electronic warfare suites, towed decoys, and BVR missiles. Rafale’s SPECTRA suite provides survivability against radar-guided threats. IAF has Rudram-1, enabling SEAD missions against radar emitters. BrahMos-A on Su-30MKI and glide bombs (SPICE, Hammer) allow IAF to strike from outside dense SAM coverage. S-400 can neutralize Pakistani force multipliers, if deployed.

Artillery is more about sustained and precision ammo than just number of launchers. How many days of ammo have they stocked? How much can they produce under fire? What is their wherewithal to procure?

We can go on to each detail and what we shall see is although Pakistan has a shiny spear, their hollowness is veiled behind a thin shiny armor and have no doubt that the Indian armed forces can fulfill any military mission given to them, duly supported. Not saying it is easy, saying it is eminently viable.

[chetak]

Instagram Fake. But nicely done

That was just for the intro, williams ji,


SM has been buzzing for many days now about this very thing


youtube has also started to talk of it


no smoke without fire

[Jay]

All gates of Baglihar Dam on Chenab River CLOSED — Latest Visuals from Ramban, J&K.

— Indus Waters Treaty suspension showing RESULTS.

Do anyone know how this is different this time? Usually all the gates will be closed by May as the spring melt has already happened and we need to store water for the upcoming Summer and harvest season.

[Jay]

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

Your post is giving the "emperor is naked" vibe, which I hope is not true. Everybody realizes that we let off the accelerator pedal when it comes to building our armed forces, but I hope things are not as bleak as you are alluding to.

[Amber G.]

Again, a long reply about Pakistan's nuclear capability - a technical discussion. Good material if you're interested, or feel free to skip if not.

Long Reply - But it is important (lot of information) to put it here:

<skip>

Amber G thank you for sharing your pearls of wisdom in the physics and other threads, I really appreciate them.

Couple of 2 naya paisa points from my side:

1. Pakistan tested nuclear device is not questionable. It did so in the Chagai tests. What is under question is the number and type of devices that it holds in its arsenal. Various numbers keep floating around, but on the face of it they appear to be quoted to maintain the balance of power or terror.. whatever term one would prefer to use. Devices require raw material which in turn need to be produced using reactors. The side product is electricity. Now, where and when did they produce the quantum of power which would indicate that they have the building blocks.
That leaves the second source, that they got the device in a readymade state. How many would China transfer and would it transfer repeatedly?

<skip>

Thank you for the thoughtful engagement. I completely agree with your first point: the fact that Pakistan tested nuclear devices in the Chagai hills in May 1998 is not in question. The seismic signatures and subsequent international analysis confirm this conclusively.

The more nuanced question, as you rightly raise, concerns the number, type, and sustainability of Pakistan’s current arsenal. Here, the discussion moves from confirmed facts to a combination of open-source intelligence, technical inference, and strategic logic.

My take (consistent with most scientists) - A Physicist’s View:

(I have written quite a bit about this in BFF for last 20 years )

I would underline that producing fissile material—whether highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239)—requires distinct and challenging technological infrastructure.

HEU production involves uranium enrichment via gas centrifuge cascades, which demand precise engineering, high-strength materials, and tight process control over hundreds or thousands of machines operating in synchrony. Pakistan’s centrifuge program, centered at Kahuta, has been operational since the 1980s and is believed to be the primary source of HEU for its early warheads.

From a design perspective, HEU weapons can be constructed using relatively simple “gun-type” assemblies, as in the Hiroshima bomb. These are technically easier to build once sufficient HEU is available, which is one reason HEU is considered particularly proliferation-sensitive.

In contrast, plutonium is easier to obtain if one has access to a heavy-water reactor (such as the Khushab reactors in Pakistan), but it requires a more complex “implosion-type” design. Plutonium’s higher spontaneous neutron emission makes gun-type designs infeasible due to pre-detonation risks. Implosion systems involve precise high-explosive shaping, fast triggering systems, and advanced diagnostics—all of which raise the technical bar significantly.


Thus, while HEU is harder to make but easier to use, and plutonium is easier to make but harder to use, both paths are viable—provided the state invests adequately in the supporting engineering.

Pakistan’s continued expansion of Khushab and enrichment at Kahuta suggests an intent to diversify and grow its fissile material base, likely moving toward smaller, more compact plutonium-based warheads for tactical delivery systems.

(BTW Unlike civilian nuclear power reactors, these facilities are optimized not for electricity generation, but for weapons-grade material production. The Khushab complex, in particular, is believed to host multiple reactors dedicated to plutonium production and is monitored by satellite imagery and expert analysis .

So while electricity output is minimal or nonexistent, the production of weapons material can still be substantial—albeit limited by scale and safety.)

On Chinese Assistance and Limits of External Transfers:

While China undoubtedly provided early assistance—most notably in the form of a tested bomb design in the 1980s—there is no credible evidence of China supplying finished warheads, let alone continuing to do so over the years. Covert design help and early transfer of HEU are entirely plausible (and documented in CIA and DOE reports), but nuclear weapon states simply do not hand over deliverable weapons en masse, especially under the NPT framework.

Strategically, such an action would be deeply risky for China. Their interests are better served by enabling a client state to stand up its own limited deterrent, not by risking direct international exposure.

Arsenal Estimates:

You're also correct in noting that nuclear arsenal estimates are often shaped by strategic signaling. Pakistan may inflate its numbers or capabilities to maintain deterrent credibility, particularly given the conventional asymmetry with India. However, most reputable open-source estimates from SIPRI, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and other nuclear watchdogs place Pakistan’s stockpile in the 165–170 warhead range, based on fissile material inventories, known infrastructure, and delivery system development.

In conclusion, while Pakistan’s program began with significant external support, it has evolved into a limited but operational deterrent grounded in indigenous material production and weaponization capabilities. It is not as advanced, diversified, or transparent as India’s—whose program rests on a much stronger scientific and industrial base—but it is credible from a strategic standpoint.

From a physicist’s and strategic analyst’s view, we must differentiate between early dependence, present-day capabilities, and future risks—while grounding all assessments in technical and empirical evidence.

[Deans]

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

Excluding the Mig-21 squadrons, we have 29, of which 8 are in the East.
The army is short of at least 100,000 people. Another 50,000 are in the RR doing counter insurgency.
Of our three strike corps, a part of one moved to Ladakh. The combined strength of the three strike corps (excluding what is moved to Ladakh)
is only slightly superior to Pakistan's two strike corps.

[Deans]

With 31 AF squadrons, lack of AEW and refuellers, a singular lack of anti drone weapons at company level, lack of overmatch in artillery and ammo, lack of significant kamikaze drones and training to operate under sustained drone attacks - any large scale operations to take out the PA are off the table. The sooner we accept this, the lesser will ones disappointment and frustration be.

Your post is giving the "emperor is naked" vibe, which I hope is not true. Everybody realizes that we let off the accelerator pedal when it comes to building our armed forces, but I hope things are not as bleak as you are alluding to.

The only reason it may not be bleak is that years of economic hardship have forced some belt tightening among the Pak armed forces too. They agreed to the 2021 ceasefire across the LOC because they could not afford a hot LOC. They have not conducted major exercises for some time.
That said, we neglected recruitment since Covid and did not step up procurement.
I did a blogpost on it 2 years ago.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/08/pa ... osion.html

Their XI and XII corps are tied down in insurgencies in Balochistan and KP. Transferring the four divisions of these two corps, would have given Pak parity with India in the number of divisions facing each other - though India too has reserves it can transfer from the East.

[bala]

Pakistan conducted six acknowledged nuclear tests in May 1998, with yields consistent with fission-based weapons.

This stmt requires further analysis. Let us assume that the Puke land created their own devices by themselves. They would have exploded this way before India did in 1998 just for bragging rights. But they did not, since they have none.

It is a fact that Puke land PM Navaz Sharif made a mad dash to China prior to explosion of the so called 6 devices. Clearly what was exploded was a China device, just based on the above logic. Also the fact that China would not share with Puke land its own working device's exact details means that Puke land did not have a working device of their own. This is very clear to anyone who exercises pure logic. No need for others to tell them anything further.

All these US Ayatollah think tanks were dead set against India. Let us recall how nukes came about. It was the US that started nukes. The Soviets managed via espionage to steal the US designs. Then the Chinese stole them from the Soviets. Britshits/France have US design. But India did not steal anything, everything is on its own. This is upsetting the US in a major way.

In terms of dadagiri, both US and China are past masters in conducting themselves in such a way that no evidence is attributable to them. Remember, chutiya B. Clinton conveniently told India that he lost some device, that India provided the US as evidence for terrorism from Puke land. Such crooks.

The rest of stuff that Puke do is repainted China maal including delivery system. So much for deterence.

Talking about Deterence, in Ukraine-Rus war, every red line of Rus was crossed by Ukraine. Did Rus use nukes? No.

In Puke case, India can cross all 4 of their redlines - water already done, blockade of Krachi is in place. Devastation to P Army is being done by BLA and they will lose POK as well as Baluchistan. Go ahead nuke nanga baba Pak land, shows us your china nuke devices.

[bala]

Bala gaaru, one small nit. India canvassed and helped China getting admitted into WTO.

Vayu gaaru, you are right. Just goes to show how muddle headed India is wrt to China. I already posted in china thread a finding on economic clout of China. Their per capita GDP number during Mao was 123rd in the world, by the end of 1999 they were ranked 130th in the world. After WTO China dumped their excess goods onto the world via WTO at prices which were so ridiculous that they captured market share in pretty much every sector. In the last 25 yrs China rose to true #2 in the world that they now threaten the US. That is why DJT is clamping down hard on tariffs. We will see what happens to China eventually.

[Amber G.]

B. Clinton admitted China into WTO and that started the true rise of China in the world.

I firmly believe Pak land is nuke nude and they are bluffing.

Few posts about this... I think it is irrelevant in this context and timing for China's nuclear program..

China was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on December 11, 2001, after a lengthy negotiation process that began in 1986. This marked a significant milestone in China's economic integration into the global economy.

As for China's nuclear testing, the country's first nuclear test, codenamed "Project 596," was conducted on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site in Xinjiang. China conducted a total of 47 nuclear tests between 1964 and 1996, with the last test taking place on July 29, 1996
(From Wiki)

[Amber G.]

Pakistan conducted six acknowledged nuclear tests in May 1998, with yields consistent with fission-based weapons.

This stmt requires further analysis. Let us assume that the Puke land created their own devices by themselves. They would have exploded this way before India did in 1998 just for bragging rights. But they did not, since they have none.
..<snip>

This argument is speculative and ignores basic technical facts. Pakistan’s 1998 tests were independently confirmed via seismic data with yields consistent with fission devices—there’s no evidence they were “Chinese bombs.”

The idea that they would have tested earlier “for bragging rights” isn’t how nuclear decisions are made. Weaponization involves complex engineering, not just timing.

Pakistan’s program had external help early on, but its deterrent today is real and domestically maintained. Let’s stick to physics and verified data—not conjecture.

[Amber G.]

Diplomatic Front:
-Pakistan has demanded emergency closed session of United Nations Security Council over India-Pakistan tension. Meeting to take place Monday May 5th afternoon New York local time.

-Def Minister Rajnath Singh, Japan Defence minister meet in Delhi

[suryag]

BTW, we can capture the 2mile golpatan and gajansoo corridor and the area jutting in to send a message

[bala]

This argument is speculative and ignores basic technical facts. Pakistan’s 1998 tests were independently confirmed via seismic data with yields consistent with fission devices—there’s no evidence they were “Chinese bombs.”

There is no such thing as seismic activity would determine whether the exploded maal is paki or cheeni. This is stretching the truth to those who propped up the Pukis against India. Please continue to stick to your opinion and i will stick to mine. You don't need to respond one bit to my writings and make contorted observations some of which are inaccurate.

[RCase]

My take (consistent with most scientists) - A Physicist’s View:

(I have written quite a bit about this in BFF for last 20 years )
...
From a physicist’s and strategic analyst’s view, we must differentiate between early dependence, present-day capabilities, and future risks—while grounding all assessments in technical and empirical evidence.

From a non-physicist view, would like to pose the following questions:
1. Who are those noteworthy Paki physicists? To the best of my knowledge, it is Abdus Salam (the Ahmediya that could not live in Pak), Goodboy (seems like a jack of all trades), the Djinn Energy Daktar (forgot his name) and PhotoChor Khan who was a metallurgist, pretending to be a nuclear physicist. How come their physicists have not published major papers in international journals of repute, apart from dubious circular references in Paki articles?

2. Zia-ul-Haq was famously lying that Pak was one-screwdriver turn away from making the bomb, when they were far from it.

3. What is the industrial capability of Pak? Goodboy famously remarked that at the best they produce towels and bed sheets, apart from footballs. Hassan Nisar has also remarked that Pakistan cannot make a needle or wiper blade for a car. I would like to know what is that mechanical/electric product for which Pak is famous for? JF-17, Nasr, Ghaznavi, Ghori etc. paint jobs don't count. These guys don't even make a bicycle. So how did they leap frog high precision manufacturing.

4. Even if they had super duper top notch talent to head the programs, where is the super duper lower level engineering talent? From my perspective, most of the Pakis are pretty dumb. Just watching their TV/ YT programs displays their stupidity and mindset. The few Pakis I have personally come across in Univ were clueless. There are only a handful of Pakis in the Silicon Valley that are good.

5. I mistrust the US spin stories of Pak creating the fastest stockpile of N-weapons. (Sounds like Iraqi WMD, Chinese Navy superiority, Syrian Chemical weapons etc.).

6. Trusting that the Chinese wouldn't have surreptitiously proliferated nuclear tech is being naive. The Chinese have never upheld any piece of paper that they have signed.

7. The Paki awam have been fed the churan of atim bum, where you have jokers that think it is some kind of diwali firework. Shiekh Rashid talks of pau-pau ke bum. The TLP maulana talking about meeting the Swedes with a quran in one hand the nuclear bum box in the other hand!

Even if they have a primitive nuclear device, they are highly unlikely to use it. India's stated doctrine is the no-first-use policy that is breached the moment an adversary starts the process of arming a n-weapon; even if it is not fired. Paki nuclear bluff has been called out quite a few times. What they have to worry is that this time the world might do a khatna to their nuclear program along with Iran.

Something is jarring with my simple brain's understanding of the Paki claims.

[ramana]

A dated Rand study on predicting Terrorism
Please read and give key points.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/20 ... -next.html

[bala]

Considering China as the main prop to Puke land with some assist by the US, one needs to worry about whether the Cheens will butt in and help out the Pukes in the slug fest between India and Puke land. Remember that Cheen is fully embedded into PA and Belt & Road initiative is prime for the Cheens. However the islamic factor worries Cheens since they have Xinjiang region to deal with. The Cheens have boxed India on the BD front by YouAnus.

Lt. Gen P R Shankar brings out the finer points, in which he contends that the Cheens are in a bind when it comes to India Puke war. There are so many factors to take in and saving Pukes is not the sole aim for the Cheens. They want to use the Pukes to get their objectives met in the Indian sub continent. How do you ride a tiger to tame it.

If POK falls then the Cheens are worried about Shaksgam valley and their conduit for belt and road. 370 abrogation affected the cheens a lot. If the BLA takes over Baluchistan then Gwadar is gone. Many things that the cheens hoped for will be lost.

youtube.com/watch?v=KhHdMzaRS3g

[nits]

One thing which still baffles me is why the 4 terrorists who massacred innocent Hindu's are still at large; why we are not able to eliminate them or apprehend them. i understand the geographical challenges but we have one of best informer network + Drone tech etc and still no news on them...

unless we have caught them, but info is not public

[tandav]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... d-9981995/

Indian Army's first causalities. Similar issues seen in previous buildups on the border with Pakistan. Sabotage is a possibility.

[vera_k]

One thing which still baffles me is why the 4 terrorists who massacred innocent Hindu's are still at large; why we are not able to eliminate them or apprehend them. i understand the geographical challenges but we have one of best informer network + Drone tech etc and still no news on them...

unless we have caught them, but info is not public

IMO, this indicates that they are special forces, not run of the mill Kasab like terrorists. Note that both 1947, 1965 and 1999 war started with trained fighters infiltrating ahead of regular army engagement.

[williams]

One thing which still baffles me is why the 4 terrorists who massacred innocent Hindu's are still at large; why we are not able to eliminate them or apprehend them. i understand the geographical challenges but we have one of best informer network + Drone tech etc and still no news on them...

unless we have caught them, but info is not public

We have informers, and they have OGWs. Drone tech, etc, does not matter. We screwed up by not monitoring private tourist spots, and by the time we could get there, the thugs were gone. Without good intelligence, this is searching for a needle in the haystack.

[Manish_P]

A dated Rand study on predicting Terrorism
Please read and give key points.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/20 ... -next.html

Ramana ji, with respect, and not meaning to sound pithy - The best way to predict a terrorist strike is to be the terrorist.

The author of the RAND article is supposed to be an American expert on terrorism

And he ask questions like 'Who in 1977 forecast the emergence of Islamist extremism in the form of the Iranian Revolution'.. and similarly after using islamist jihadis to oust the Soviets wonders why 'By 1997, al Qaeda had already declared war on the United States'

I mean really?

Americans are experts on Terrorism alright but they are experts at only starting it... they find it troublesome to control it and firmly believe it is the rest of the world's responsibility to end it.

[A Deshmukh]

One thing which still baffles me is why the 4 terrorists who massacred innocent Hindu's are still at large;

Because by the time security forces started coming in (thanks to Army officers on vacation's calls), these terrorists removed their pherans and
became pony riders/ tourist guides / villagers. They escaped in plain sight.
If they had gone via jungles, the UAVs would have spotted by now.

[Baikul]

looks like someone has just found a work husband

maybe, this is what munir means by "Ghus Ke Marenge" pakjabi ishtyle

Nicely done but someone should tell Dawn that there should be an ‘an’ before army major, not an ‘a’. Hopefully in the next iteration.

[Baikul]

One thing which still baffles me is why the 4 terrorists who massacred innocent Hindu's are still at large; why we are not able to eliminate them or apprehend them. i understand the geographical challenges but we have one of best informer network + Drone tech etc and still no news on them...

unless we have caught them, but info is not public

IMO, this indicates that they are special forces, not run of the mill Kasab like terrorists. Note that both 1947, 1965 and 1999 war started with trained fighters infiltrating ahead of regular army engagement.

Also I was reading somewhere that this operation by the Pakis has moved up to the level of guerilla warfare, not simple terrorism. An interesting thought which may provide some insight.

[chetak]

looks like someone has just found a work husband

maybe, this is what munir means by "Ghus Ke Marenge" pakjabi ishtyle

Nicely done but someone should tell Dawn that there should be an ‘an’ before army major, not an ‘a’. Hopefully in the next iteration.

why do Hindu's have this drain inspectors mentality, just take the win and forward it, if you can or even want to, Baikul ji

the rumour is that even his last wife reham khan acknowledged in her book, which, BTW was very imaginatively, also called reham khan that her "شوہر" had many friends who liked to visit the great khan via the back door ....

even sickularism should have its limitations, no .....

[chetak]

[williams]

looks like someone has just found a work husband

maybe, this is what munir means by "Ghus Ke Marenge" pakjabi ishtyle

Nicely done but someone should tell Dawn that there should be an ‘an’ before army major, not an ‘a’. Hopefully in the next iteration.

It is not done by Dawn but some clever teenager in instagram. Problem is our Babus don't even have half the brains of these teenagers. We should have exploited this whole Imran vs Army situation and started some green - green action. There were some blood thirsty Abduls available to take on the army that time.