Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[srai]

Chinese fighting for Russia caught by Ukraine

[srai]

Gravehawk R-73 SAM system … similar to the IAF jugaad

[drnayar]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/1 ... rike-hard/

F-16 ‘downed’ in Ukraine as Russian defenses ‘strike’ hard

[Aditya_V]

Looks like S400 initially guided by Su 35 in TWS mode, only when the SAM radar goes active, the target RWR sounds.

This is happening both sides for the last 2 years, AWACS or Aircraft in the Air, acquire the genral details if the target, heavy SAM is launched with the Aircraft in the NEZ zone and data link giving data, the Heavy SAMs realtively powerful active radar does the guiding in the last 10km to the target.

[srai]

^^^
Ukrainian AF using F-16s and Mirage-2000s increasingly for air strikes.

[Deans]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bom ... an-weapons

A good article on the performance of German weapons in Ukraine (from the Germans).

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/gro ... n-tactical

This one on Russian tactics is behind a paywall, but you can sometimes get a free read.

Russian TV channels cover the war with more accuracy than western reporters, because they are embedded with units. Some have been
killed. Unlike the Soviet propaganda of WW2, they have more human interest stories. A leading telegram channel in Russia invites soldiers to share
pics of their cats. The `frontline cats' section is part of the daily war reporting.

There is also a Russian tradition of school children sending letters to soldiers. One of them says `good luck, stay safe and please kill our Maths
teacher' !

[srai]

Skyfall, a Ukrainian drone producer, churns out 100K+/month FVP and 1,000+/month larger drones.

[srai]

Huge ammunition warehouse near Moscow blown up. (some estimates put it as 105,000 tons)

[Deans]

Huge ammunition warehouse near Moscow blown up. (some estimates put it as 105,000 tons)

Denys Davidoff who posts these videos, is a pilot who fled Ukraine at the beginning of the war rather than serve and is now happy to
see his countrymen fight `till final victory'. I find it disgusting that someone who refuses to serve himself, peddles false hope.
If we add up all his claims, Russia ran out of ammunition 3 years ago, lost a zillion men already and Ukraine should capture Moscow soon.
Seems similar to Hitler talking of final victory in 1945.

That ammo dump had an accident due to faulty handling of ammo. 4 people injured. Quite openly covered on Russian TV

[srai]

51st GRAU Arsenal Located 60km from Moscow
Apparently can hold 264,000 tonnes of ordnance

Damage Area

https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/1915068686399918140

[YashG]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bom ... an-weapons

A good article on the performance of German weapons in Ukraine (from the Germans).

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/gro ... n-tactical

This one on Russian tactics is behind a paywall, but you can sometimes get a free read.

Russian TV channels cover the war with more accuracy than western reporters, because they are embedded with units. Some have been
killed. Unlike the Soviet propaganda of WW2, they have more human interest stories. A leading telegram channel in Russia invites soldiers to share
pics of their cats. The `frontline cats' section is part of the daily war reporting.

There is also a Russian tradition of school children sending letters to soldiers. One of them says `good luck, stay safe and please kill our Maths
teacher' !

Have read this article. I find simplicius as among the only war commentators talking about the purely drone based defence (that could even approach singularity - an event when drone defence will be so good that actual soldier numbers will be useless to overall picture)

----

It is also worth noting that russian advances have become very slow even compared to the advancing rate post avdiivka. Likely early symptoms of drone singularity. What is nt yet clear if russia will be able to overcome or even avert drone singularity.

There is no deep and clear analysis available (tht I know of) on this aspect yet.

[srai]

Interesting data points on the Russian war economy. In terms of purchasing parity (PPP), Russian defense spending ($462 billion) is larger than all of EU (including UK) defense budgets combined.

Russia spending $1 billion/week in Ukraine war



Let’s see how long Russia can keep up economically

[gakakkad]

^ still half of unkils "peacetime" (if there is ever such a thing for unkik) defence budget.

[drnayar]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bom ... an-weapons

A good article on the performance of German weapons in Ukraine (from the Germans).

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/gro ... n-tactical

There is no deep and clear analysis available (tht I know of) on this aspect yet.

In summary, the paper is very clear: "Hardly any large German device is fully suitable for war"

[srai]

6 million artillery shells for Ukraine

• 2 million EU
• 1.5 million Czech initiative (global purchase)
• 2.5 million Ukrainian produced

Ukraine uses 150K - 200K shells per month



Together with 4.5 million Ukrainian drones, Russians have a hard slog ahead.

[SRajesh]

How is Rus managing to spend billions??
There is a ban on sale of Gas/Oil/minerals
Foreign accounts are frozen??
Where are they getting dollars from
India bought oil but did not use Dollars for the trade?
Are Chinese selling dollars
Did they have that much reserve??
How are they funding this war??

[srai]

Su-30 shot down with R-73 fired from a Ukrainian sea drone

[Manish_P]

6 million artillery shells for Ukraine
...

Chance for us to sell ammo to Russia

If not in cash then in barter

How many shells is equal to a Su-30 MKI

[Tanaji]

This war has never been about availability of military hardware and ammo for Ukraine. If it was, they should have won all lost territory last year itself. The fact is Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to dislodge Russians that have now dig in on their side of the river and this fact is not going to change soon. The war is a stalemate and I am surprised Putin hasn’t cut a deal with US yet.

[srai]

It wasn’t R-73 but AIM-9.

Two Su-30 downed. One video proof above.

Two Russian Su-30 Flankers Downed By AIM-9s Fired From Drone Boats: Ukrainian Intel Boss

The event marks the first time drone boats downed fighters and the first successful use of AIM-9 missiles to take down any aircraft via drone boat.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shot down two Su-30 Flanker multirole fighters with AIM-9 Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missiles fired by Magura-7 drone boats, the head of the agency told The War Zone exclusively. This marks the first time fighter airecraft have been downed by drone boats and the first use of the AIM-9 from a drone boat for a kill.

“It’s a historical moment,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. The War Zone cannot independently verify this claim.

The incident took place in the Black Sea on Friday, said Budanov, who offered new details about what happened. Previous reporting from GUR, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and Russian Telegram channels stated that one Flanker was shot down by an adapted infrared-guided R-73 (AA-11 Archer) short-range air-to-air missile.

Video emerged on social media showing the first Flanker downing. Budanov said there were no videos or images of the second engagement.
…

As we have previously noted, the AIM-9M is broadly similar to the R-73 in terms of capabilities and rough dimensions, but with one major difference.

rom our earlier reporting: “More specifically, the AIM-9M has the all-aspect capability introduced on the AIM-9L model but provides all-around better performance. It has improved defense against infrared countermeasures, enhanced background discrimination capability, and a reduced-smoke rocket motor.…
…

[Arima]

It wasn’t R-73 but AIM-9.

Two Su-30 downed. One video proof above.

Two Russian Su-30 Flankers Downed By AIM-9s Fired From Drone Boats: Ukrainian Intel Boss

Truely historic. drone fitted with short range AIM missle taking out 4th gen aircraft.
how guidance was provided? i assume some US intel aircraft prividing guidance till end to achieve kill.

[Deans]

6 million artillery shells for Ukraine

• 2 million EU
• 1.5 million Czech initiative (global purchase)
• 2.5 million Ukrainian produced

Ukraine uses 150K - 200K shells per month

Together with 4.5 million Ukrainian drones, Russians have a hard slog ahead.

Shell numbers are a bit misleading
The Czech initiative was one time. The total quantity fell short of 1.5 million and included a lot of EU production.
US & NATO excluding Czech numbers was about 1.5 million
Czech and NATO numbers also include 105mm shells.

Ukraine's production is mostly smaller caliber - e.g. 120mm mortar (90% were defective) 122mm shells etc.

Half of Ukraine's guns are 152 mm but there are no shells for these. (China and NoKo produce them along with Russia)
On drones, Yes, Ukraine will probably use 4.5 million drones this year (NATO & Ukraine's cumulative output), Russia probably half that.
90% of drones on both sides are intercepted.

[Deans]

It wasn’t R-73 but AIM-9.

Two Su-30 downed. One video proof above.

Two Russian Su-30 Flankers Downed By AIM-9s Fired From Drone Boats: Ukrainian Intel Boss

Truely historic. drone fitted with short range AIM missle taking out 4th gen aircraft.
how guidance was provided? i assume some US intel aircraft prividing guidance till end to achieve kill.

Russia acknowledged one loss. However, since 2024 aircraft production has exceeded losses and new production is replacing losses of older aircraft.

[Deans]

How is Rus managing to spend billions??
There is a ban on sale of Gas/Oil/minerals
Foreign accounts are frozen??
Where are they getting dollars from
India bought oil but did not use Dollars for the trade?
Are Chinese selling dollars
Did they have that much reserve??
How are they funding this war??

There is no ban on oil and gas sale, when the EU is cynically flouting it.
I did blogpost on Indian oil imports which gives you a fuller picture.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/12/in ... ality.html

Russia has large forex reserves even after US & EU froze some $ 360 billion.
Russia was the fastest growing economy in Europe in 2023 & 2024 (probably 2025 too) led by armament production.
Most production is domestic and does not require forex.

[Deans]

6 million artillery shells for Ukraine
...

Chance for us to sell ammo to Russia

If not in cash then in barter

How many shells is equal to a Su-30 MKI

It's a sad commentary on the state of NATO when North Korea produces as many heavy calibre shells as NATO.

[Deans]

This war has never been about availability of military hardware and ammo for Ukraine. If it was, they should have won all lost territory last year itself. The fact is Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to dislodge Russians that have now dig in on their side of the river and this fact is not going to change soon. The war is a stalemate and I am surprised Putin hasn’t cut a deal with US yet.

The objective of the war for Russia was never about territory. It was to safeguard the rights of the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine, which
should have happened after the Minsk agreement.
Once the war started, Russia's objective is the de-militarization of the Ukraine army, after which it intends to secure 4 provinces (Donetsk and
Luhansk) and most of Zaparozhye and Kherson.
Ukraine's population base is now 1/6th of Russia (it was 1/3rd when Ukraine got independence). It is losing more men than Russia.
Russia can afford an attrition war, Ukraine cannot.
Ukraine will run out of people, before Russia runs out of armaments.

[Manish_P]

It's a sad commentary on the state of NATO when North Korea produces as many heavy calibre shells as NATO.

No shortage of workers in communism or dictatorship, Deans sir. And no union-baazi, workers rights ityaadi.

[Yagnasri]

No. For decades, a lot of manufacturing has been systematically shifted out of EU nations. Plus, defence budgets were not sufficient. Most critically, most EU nations or the Britshits have no real economy to sustain their life standards without looting Asia and Africa. Period. Once the looting stopped and the WTO created a level playing field in trade, the fall of the Gora nations became irreversible, except that they started the looting again.

For that reason, they kept NATO and controlled all money lending and other institutions.

[Deans]

It's a sad commentary on the state of NATO when North Korea produces as many heavy calibre shells as NATO.

No shortage of workers in communism or dictatorship, Deans sir. And no union-baazi, workers rights ityaadi.

Also, in a market economy, wartime exigencies means prices rise. NATO is paying more per shell from European factories, despite a considerable
increase in volumes.

[srai]

Good details on Robo Attack Dogs being used by Ukraine

[ernest]

Good details on Robo Attack Dogs being used by Ukraine

A flamethrower equipped robodog will be very interesting for COIN operations in India. We already have similar systems ready.

[srai]

ASRAAM as SAM

Ukrainian forces have fired some 400 ground launched ASRAAMs with 70% success rates.

[srai]

Drones with grenade launchers … very deadly against ground troops who won’t see or hear it

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/NeferIpi/status/1924888167443771532 ---> The Russian APDSF pierced through M1A1SA Abrams' turret frontal armor. Exhibition of new trophies in St. Petersburg.

[Hriday]

Austin gives several very interesting details of Russian Iskander ballistic missile. See the video and post damage pictures in the link and in replies to it.
https://x.com/AustinAJoseph76/status/19 ... x0Vzw&s=19

The number of Patriot PAC-3/2 SAM launched against Iskander-M Ballistic Missile strike on capital city Kyiv just few days back is mind boggling.

Nearly more than a dozen Patriot SAM is launched but in the end the Iskander BM strikes the atleast two Launcher shown at the end of video

So far Patriot has been by and large ineffective to intercept Iskander-M Ballistic missile and Iskander Ballistic Missile scored many direct hits against Patriot SAM even the most modern PAC-3 , Ukraine operates both PAC-2/3

Iskander-M is not a long range BM but MRBM range ~ 600 km so the top speed does not exceed Mach 6 and terminal speed is Mach 4-5 slows to Mach 3-4 as it near target as seen on many videos.

So what makes Iskander-M evade West most sophisticated ABM Patriot SAM couple of reasons

1 ) Iskander-M is a single stage BM and is a Aero Ballistic Missile that does not follow pure Ballistic trajectory but Aero Ballistic or shaped trajectory.

2 ) It apogee does not exceed 40-45 km in flight so all its flight is inside the atmosphere , keeps changing trajectory and altitude as it flies to the target and then take a 90 degree hit at the target during terminal phase.

3 ) Carries dual band guidance Radar Seeker and Optical guidance as well as jamming equipment.

4 ) Carries decoys Radar and IR around its tail which it uses it during its flight likely has inbuilt RWR that warns of it being painted by Radar like aircraft rwr sensors

5 ) In some video its known to change trajectory in final seconds of flight when interceptor is fired at it , so likely the Radar on its nose or some other sensors can also sense its under attack and slightly changes its trajectory good enough for ABM to miss it.

Video Source: @cym27s

[ernest]

Impressive! That's a complex missile - not likely to be cheap. Is there any comparable public information about Pralay, and what countermeasures does it employ? Thanks

[Tanaji]

Looks like Ukraine has managed to destroy a large number of Russian bombers.

[Aditya_V]

It's a brilliant operation no doubt, but how did the trucks get into Russia, I suspect the Chinese have played a double game, the one place of origin for the containers the Russians would not have fully checked.

[Tanaji]

The truck full of drones released near airfield can easily be duplicated in India. In fact even more easily…

[Nihat]

Brilliantly executed op by the Ukrainian armed forces. It needed a lot of ground support and the coordination of intelligence would provide a lot of military lessons. On the other hand, it's a huge loss for Russia considering the limited number of bombers available in their fleet.

Hard to imagine the US intelligence community had no role to play in it