Armuan wrote: ↑10 May 2025 11:00
With all the relentless work being done by our layered air defense systems, just wondering:
1) How is PA able to muster these many drones & loitering munitions? Are these drones low value variety, or more substantial? What kind of missiles do they launch (other than purported Fatah)?
Relatively cheap, and disposable. And given the experience with cheap drones in the Armenian-Azerbaijan war and the Ukraine war, all countries are stockpiling drones of all kinds as a way to perform standoff attacks on the cheap and in numbers. The bonus is that thr cost to neutralize these are quite expensive. Typically, it'll be cheaper to use electronic and non-kinetic approaches to disrupting drones, but the only sure way to destroy a possibly-armed drone are kinetic means.
2) How are we spending our ADS on these? I can understand a SAM spent against an enemy aircraft. During the first days into this confrontation, news media claim approx. 500 drones and missiles have been shot down till now. Media houses also claim (NDTV, FirstPost) the pakis are probing our defenses for any weakness, so this is just a start.
ADS would be a mixture of Akash, Barak, etc., modernized L70 guns, ZU 23, and of course S400. And then there are hand-held drone neutralizing guns and manpads. Wonder how much risk there is of running out of stock of key ADS missiles. We are just starting and consuming ADS munitions at a rapid clip. Hope we replenish rapidly.
That's always the big operational question... what to prioritize and how. And any specific information about this would be a highly guarded secret. At the moment, it looks like we aren't at the point of needing to prioritize protection, so without knowing more, it looks like they're fairly confident about our stockpiles.
There are the larger considerations to the AD strategy... what's our level of situational awareness of whether a drone is armed or not? How well can we predict possible targets (given many of these are loitering drones)? What are the larger implications to possible off-ramps and de-escalation pathways if we suffer civilian casualties because of prioritizing military asset protection over civilian areas? This last one I'd imagine is quite crucial. A missile successfully hitting Jammu or another town would raise the stakes and create an unignorable public demand for further escalation and retaliation that GoI might not want. A successfully intercepted weapon, even if the wreckage injures or kills public, can act as a stronger morale booster. Furthermore, the panic factor of such cases is much more than if the weapons weren't neutralized.
My read seems to be that GoI is playing everything close to the chest to not inflame things further, as well as to ensure that there are no visuals or news that can close off Pakistani offramp. 100% guarantee that's not the case behind closed doors. I would imagine that the red lines are being communicated regularly between the two countries, so that both sides have clear facts of the situation and don't escalate this into a misadventure.
Surprising as it might seem, Pakistan also seems to be exerting some restraint, in publicizing certain aspects like collateral damage, but not highlighting many military engagements, both for OpSec as well as to not further lose face. There's a logic to what's being claimed and said... the claim of five aircraft shot was made loudly but with no proof, which is a great way of chestthumping for a home audience who wouldn't care as much about attribution or accuracy, but will have no credibility in either the diplomatic arena nor among more discerning analysts.