Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[Agasthi]

Tom Cooper is one of the neutral guys and had a long collab with our late B Harry. If he was still with us, he would be the expert being interviewed.

However, these western analysts are a double edged sword. They could have interviewed someone like Indranil B or Rohit Vats however both are enthusiasts. We don’t seem to have civilian experts who do this kind of thing for a living. Look at the books he was authored. Btw. How does he know Jaguars attacked Sukkur or the kind of aircraft we lost. He has sources for sure but that deep in the IAF?

@Sanjay ji, I think the leadership was overly cautious at the very beginning whether on advice of babus or their own naivety in war matters and once they realised how nude pakis were they decided to try to go for the kill and US intervention might have held that off.

One thing is quite clear our foreign policy wonks need to be reeducated as pointed out by one of our posters. The messages comes across as very effete and from a position of weakness. When you are saying from Day 1 that my attacks are measured so please don’t attack me back or provoke me further sounds weak to parties who will not understand babu speak. It was only when Raghu Nair first took over the messaging started becoming intimidating and our restive population started cooling down.

[Agasthi]

I know there is sigh of relief that a couple of Paki nuclear sites were struck and their nuclear bluff has been called. However, is it possible for them to have nuclear weapons stored somewhere else and use it later on in their 'survive to fight another day' thought process?

How can we be certain that they have been completely defanged and their nuclear labs/manufacturing facilities are dismantled?

Absolutely R ji, Christine Fair has blinkers on when it comes to India but she is a Pakistani expert who had complete access to them for her book and resultant fallout with the Pakistanis. She mentions that the nukes are dispersed across garrisons and they keep moving. Kirana hills is just one, they must have facilities within their cantts.

[A_Gupta]

I also have a fundamental question about the scenario Tom Cooper painted. No doubt it has an answer that I'm overlooking.

How did Pakistan know that these particular take-offs of Indian planes were the ones that were going to attack Pakistan?

(Weren't air exercises going on previously for a number of days? And if they wanted to do a preemptive strike, isn't it even better to do so while the planes are still on the ground?)

[chetak]

Do Bhai, Dono Tabahi....Khud ke Party aur Desh ke Liye.

[RCase]

I am sure our military leadership will have far more in-depth knowledge of the Paki infrastructure than Christine Fair. Can't discount RAA ajints in Pak! In my opinion, she is just a foul mouthed shill, with a working knowledge of Urdu, that has gleaned some knowledge from the TFTAs who are gob smacked at the prospect of attention from a gori. Yeah, she may have done some research and written scholarly papers - not a big deal. The urban myths of the Pakis moving their nukes across garrisons, transported by donkey carts etc. are similar to the narrative of the aam abdul - 'hum atim bum chala denge'.

What is also of concern is that the Pak Fauj might attempt to do terror attacks against our nuke storage facilities.

[sanjaykumar]

On a different but related note, there is a video of a village near kirana hills with a narration that describes orders to evacuate, likely because of radiation leakage.

The narrator speaks Panjabi, no affectation of speaking in Urdu. The village itself is not in Baluchistan or interior Sindh. Yet it looks as ramshackle as villages in panjab in the 1960s and 1970s.

These are very ordinary people. They were Indians once. Perhaps India has a duty to destroy the oppressor military overlords.

[williams]

I know there is sigh of relief that a couple of Paki nuclear sites were struck and their nuclear bluff has been called. However, is it possible for them to have nuclear weapons stored somewhere else and use it later on in their 'survive to fight another day' thought process?

How can we be certain that they have been completely defanged and their nuclear labs/manufacturing facilities are dismantled?

Absolutely R ji, Christine Fair has blinkers on when it comes to India but she is a Pakistani expert who had complete access to them for her book and resultant fallout with the Pakistanis. She mentions that the nukes are dispersed across garrisons and they keep moving. Kirana hills is just one, they must have facilities within their cantts.

India's aim was not defanging the Pakis. India wanted to reciprocate proportionately until Pakis see reason. However India demonstrated the capability to hit everything while Pakis cannot retaliate with anything. Paki leadership knew they are not going to survive if India starts striking everything and backed off. Now a half dead snake is always dangerous. So India needs to have a strategy to keep the snake confined to its terrarium and kill it when the need arises. This is good enough for now. Pakis clearly understood the cost of sponsoring terror against India. They also understand having nukes is not a license to get away from terror attacks. They also understand having Uncles and Aunties to back them is of no use when India hits them.

[Agasthi]

@Rcase ji, of course. In one of the reports, it was mentioned that India has minute up to date details of paki nukes and movements and that spooked US intervention as they thought India was going in for a kill. Yes, Christine Fair is foul mouthed but her book is quite good at least from my POV. She does describe how they are transported, may not be donkey carts but we can’t discount Pakistan’s capability or motive to do that.

As far as terror attacks are concerned against nuke sites, well it’s a possibility but PM’d address makes it abundantly clear that they are not distinguishing between the jehadis and the Pak government and that they are one and the same. They can try, but it will be their funeral.

[ChanakyaM]

...

Not sure why we did not take out their entire fighters to inflict maximum damage and take out 50-60% of their fleet when we had the chance.

[Kakkaji]

The big takeaway for me from Op Sindoor is that India must plan to fight its future wars with indigenous weapons only. The Cost/ Benefit ratio of imported equipment is too high. Numbers matter, both for offense and defense; and the only way to afford sufficient numbers is through 'Make in India'.

Two projects come to my mind that need expediting at the PM-level:

1. Production of LCA Mk1A
2. Super Sukhoi upgrade of SU-30MKI.

I am sure there are many others.

Money will have to be found. I hope it can be done without raising taxes.

[Amber G.]

Indian armed forces utilized various space assets, including domestic and international commercial satellites, for Operation Sindoor. Isro facilitated data from its Cartosat series and procured images from Maxar, a US-based satellite imagery provide too. Indian satellites like Cartosat and Risat provided high-resolution imagery, radar images, and communication support. The operation leveraged space technology for imagery, satellite communication, and navigation. Isro chairman announced plans to launch new satellites, including EOS-09 (Risat-1B), to enhance surveillance capabilities. India aims to launch 100-150 satellites in the next five years, including 52 for the Space-Based Surveillance-3 program.

I put a <post> in other dhaga - A TOI story about how our space assets were used for Operation Sindoor.
<See above link of the post for detail).
--

[Amber G.]

Absolutely R ji, Christine Fair has blinkers on when it comes to India but she is a Pakistani expert who had complete access to them for her book and resultant fallout with the Pakistanis. She mentions that the nukes are dispersed across garrisons and they keep moving. Kirana hills is just one, they must have facilities within their cantts.

India's aim was not defanging the Pakis. India wanted to reciprocate proportionately until Pakis see reason. However India demonstrated the capability to hit everything while Pakis cannot retaliate with anything. Paki leadership knew they are not going to survive if India starts striking everything and backed off. Now a half dead snake is always dangerous. So India needs to have a strategy to keep the snake confined to its terrarium and kill it when the need arises. This is good enough for now. Pakis clearly understood the cost of sponsoring terror against India. They also understand having nukes is not a license to get away from terror attacks. They also understand having Uncles and Aunties to back them is of no use when India hits them.

Well said, Williamsji & Agasthiji - I agree with these post(s). India's strategic approach to conflict with Pakistan seems to focus on demonstrating military capability while avoiding full-scale war. By reciprocating proportionately, India aims to convey the message that aggression comes with significant costs. Having a defined aim for battle is crucial for clear orders and morale, as learned from past conflicts (Vietnam is a good example). A well-defined objective helps maintain troop morale and ensures a unified effort. Given the complex dynamics between nations, a measured response can help maintain stability in the region. It's essential for nations to have strategies in place to address potential future threats and maintain peace.

[Mort Walker]

The big takeaway for me from Op Sindoor is that India must plan to fight its future wars with indigenous weapons only. The Cost/ Benefit ratio of imported equipment is too high. Numbers matter, both for offense and defense; and the only way to afford sufficient numbers is through 'Make in India'.

Two projects come to my mind that need expediting at the PM-level:

1. Production of LCA Mk1A
2. Super Sukhoi upgrade of SU-30MKI.

I am sure there are many others.

Money will have to be found. I hope it can be done without raising taxes.

3. Brahmos ER & NG - quantity: 10,000

Taxes? The 18% GST on caramel popcorn for more Brahmos is completely acceptable.

[Amber G.]

there is a video of a village near kirana hills with a narration that describes orders to evacuate, likely because of radiation leakage.

FWIW, have seen the video. Few comments about background and from what we know:

There have been reports and social media posts suggesting that villages near Pakistan's Kirana Hills have been evacuated due to a potential radiation leak. These claims are AFAIK based on unverified sources (videos and social media posts). They have not been corroborated by official statements from Pakistani authorities or international monitoring agencies.

The Kirana Hills area is, for those who do not know, has historical significance in Pakistan's nuclear program. It was the site of subcritical nuclear tests in the 1980s. Recent military activities led to increased speculation about the security and integrity of nuclear facilities in the area.

However, the Indian Air Force has officially denied targeting - specifically stating that Kirana Hills was not among the sites struck.

Adding to the speculation, a U.S. Department of Energy aircraft, specifically a Beechcraft B350 associated with the AMS , was reportedly observed in Pakistani airspace. The AMS, as I said in a previous post, is designed to detect and map radiation levels (and there is US Pak agreement which it does routinely for background survey), leading some to believe that its presence indicates a response to a nuclear incident. However, there has been no official confirmation or connection to a radiation leak. If there is significant radiation leak we (India) will definitely know it by now.

While there are circulating reports and social media claims about evacuations near Kirana Hills due to a potential radiation leak, these remain unverified.

Also - Various 'earth quakes' (>4) reported in many SM I have seen -- *none* I can see which has virtually has no possibility of not being natural.

[Ankit Desai]

Since Tom Cooper is all over in the media.

In the order of as events has happened.

1. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/in ... -etiquette (Indian restrain and price paid)
2. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/pa ... btf-factor (you can ignore, little to do with Ops Sindoor)
3. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/il ... s-of-cross (India started to recover)
4. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/il ... -cross-b6c (Na-pakis on knees)

Looks like too much restrain by India and military planners at the beginning but recovered as days progress and blow to na-pakis.

-Ankit

[vera_k]

Also - Various 'earth quakes' (>4) reported in many SM I have seen -- *none* I can see which has virtually has no possibility of not being natural.

Are you basing this on observation of the seismograph? Asking because there's a possibility that the 10KM depth seen on some reports is the default used when the depth is not known.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/Indian_Analyzer/status/19 ... 4121973025 another source
HUGE: Military aviation historian Tom Cooper confirms India struck Pakistan's NUCLEAR STORAGE sites
~ Says Entrances & Exits have been Geo-verified as DESTROYED, Blocking Access to Nukes

Precision strikes. Game over for Pakistan’s Nuclear Bluff?

[ritesh]

On a different but related note, there is a video of a village near kirana hills with a narration that describes orders to evacuate, likely because of radiation leakage.

The narrator speaks Panjabi, no affectation of speaking in Urdu. The village itself is not in Baluchistan or interior Sindh. Yet it looks as ramshackle as villages in panjab in the 1960s and 1970s.

These are very ordinary people. They were Indians once. Perhaps India has a duty to destroy the oppressor military overlords.

Sanjay ji, believe if and when porkis ideology and it's un-uniformed personnels are dispensed with, overnight 20-30% of the population will come back into dharmic fold who left due to constant terror and coercion since '47.

[drnayar]

Interesting to find if they have any usable atami taakat left

Also how many awacs left

I miss how we lost the opportunity to sink paki subs..it was ripe for picking

[sanjaykumar]

I do not see restraint. I see India asking ‘do you feel lucky punk?’

Yeah they felt lucky. Upon which a disproportionate and vicious assault followed.

With apologies to Dirty Harry.

[RCase]

Modiji's ne Pakistan ki wat laga di with his policy of no WATT (Water and Talks, Trade)

[sanjaykumar]

Ask Pakistanis if India showed timidity. They have been awfully sullen around here.

[RCase]

Interesting to find if they have any usable atami taakat left

Also how many awacs left

I miss how we lost the opportunity to sink paki subs..it was ripe for picking

Rumored to be parked in Oman.

[arshyam]

I find it quite surprising that a western blogger has published a ball-by-ball commentary of how Op Sindoor transpired that multiple BRF folks are buying into without a second thought. May I know where this conviction comes from, considering most of the claims around our response, supposed losses, etc. have no documented evidence? Not sure if I missed anything over the past couple of days, but would like to know more about it. So far, I've been going with the official statements issued by our military (yes, we might have lost some assets, but details not shared yet) and some interviews of retired senior officers, who, in my mind, have more credibility than a hitherto unknown blogger.

I don't have a problem with us admitting to losses, we have always been transparent about it. Exhibit A is the friendly fire incident on our help during Balakot. But I'd prefer that such details be revealed by the military folks themselves instead of giving credibility to external sources who appear to be neutral, but may have their own hidden agenda. Exhibit A in this regard is Ms Christine Fair, who initially was widely appreciated by us for her stance on the paki establishment, but turned out to have no understanding (to put it mildly) of our positions wrt Pakistan and was just another beltway bandit pushing an American agenda.

[arshyam]

Interesting to find if they have any usable atami taakat left

Also how many awacs left

I miss how we lost the opportunity to sink paki subs..it was ripe for picking

Rumored to be parked in Oman.

I doubt it saar. Oman has friendly relations with us and wouldn't want to get involved, especially when the rest of the Arab world has stayed away and even slightly tilted toward our position.

[Roop]

However, is it possible for them to have nuclear weapons stored somewhere else and use it later... ?

Of course it's possible.

How can we be certain that they have been completely defanged ... ?

Obviously, we can't.

Both these points you raise are examples of why the job of an elected leader (like PM) in times like this is such a difficult one.

[Deans]

Meanwhile the Turks are in damage control mode while predictably missing the target of Indian anger entirely, same as PAF.

Is there a link for comments in their post ? I am going to send nasty messages.

[A_Gupta]

One of the internal casualties of the ceasefire:

Expressing solidarity with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri after he and a family member faced social media trolling, senior IAS officers, the IAS Association, and retired diplomats Sunday condemned the personal attacks.

On May 10, Misri made the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan on behalf of the Indian government. Following this, Misri and a family member became the targets of social media attacks. The senior officer has made his X account private now.
Reacting to the attacks, the IAS Association posted on X: “The IAS Association stands in solidarity with Shri Vikram Misri, Foreign Secretary, & his family. Unwarranted personal attacks on civil servants performing their duties with integrity are deeply regrettable. We reaffirm our commitment to uphold the dignity of public service.”

[Deans]

Tom Cooper is one of the neutral guys and had a long collab with our late B Harry. If he was still with us, he would be the expert being interviewed.

However, these western analysts are a double edged sword. They could have interviewed someone like Indranil B or Rohit Vats however both are enthusiasts. We don’t seem to have civilian experts who do this kind of thing for a living. Look at the books he was authored. Btw. How does he know Jaguars attacked Sukkur or the kind of aircraft we lost. He has sources for sure but that deep in the IAF?

I would have liked to see our Dr Shiv, or a former Air marshal interview him. I think beyond a point when he realises our desi media have no clue
about aviation, he will just assume things to give us a good story. No way he has sources among serving IAF officers and retired ones will give him a good yarn.

[Anujan]

This tweet by Vishnu Som
https://x.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1922499432836169889

IIRC it was mentioned in the DGMO briefing that IAF had hit a "operations center" facility. Seems to be a mobile facility in a trailer truck, to downhill ski at short notice.

at 29:30
https://youtu.be/T2DoVS9OopQ?t=1753



Says "operations center" in the slide

[Deans]

I know there is sigh of relief that a couple of Paki nuclear sites were struck and their nuclear bluff has been called. However, is it possible for them to have nuclear weapons stored somewhere else and use it later on in their 'survive to fight another day' thought process?

How can we be certain that they have been completely defanged and their nuclear labs/manufacturing facilities are dismantled?

Absolutely R ji, Christine Fair has blinkers on when it comes to India but she is a Pakistani expert who had complete access to them for her book and resultant fallout with the Pakistanis. She mentions that the nukes are dispersed across garrisons and they keep moving. Kirana hills is just one, they must have facilities within their cantts.

Fair didi, who can do BC/MC like a Punjabi, was a favorite of Pak generals, until she saw the light and is now less `unfair' to us.

[Deans]

The narrator speaks Panjabi, no affectation of speaking in Urdu. The village itself is not in Baluchistan or interior Sindh. Yet it looks as ramshackle as villages in panjab in the 1960s and 1970s.

These are very ordinary people. They were Indians once. Perhaps India has a duty to destroy the oppressor military overlords.

I think the `Assi punjabi-Tussi punjabi' thing is nonsense. They have become utterly radicalised now.

[Roop]

... had a long collab with our late B Harry.

Ah, yes... the late great B.Harry. Your mentioning his name brings back memories of the old BRF.

One thing is quite clear our foreign policy wonks need to be reeducated as pointed out by one of our posters. The messages comes across as very effete and from a position of weakness. When you are saying from Day 1 that my attacks are measured so please don’t attack me back or provoke me further sounds weak to parties who will not understand babu speak.

OMG, this is so true!! I could go on and on about this, but there's no point. It is no wonder that India projects such a soft / non-serious image when they (Govt. spokespeople) do things like this.

[Agasthi]

I find it quite surprising that a western blogger has published a ball-by-ball commentary of how Op Sindoor transpired that multiple BRF folks are buying into without a second thought. May I know where this conviction comes from, considering most of the claims around our response, supposed losses, etc. have no documented evidence? Not sure if I missed anything over the past couple of days, but would like to know more about it. So far, I've been going with the official statements issued by our military (yes, we might have lost some assets, but details not shared yet) and some interviews of retired senior officers, who, in my mind, have more credibility than a hitherto unknown blogger.

I had the same question that I asked previously like how does he know or arrive at a conclusion Jaguars attacked Sukkur airbase or the exact numbers of alleged losses of IAF. These have not been announced and even twitter handles who post such stuff.

Tom Cooper though is as far as I remember was a neutral guy and had a long collab with our late Harry B (PBUH). I had quoted Christine Fair only because her book detailed the modus operandi of how PA moves its nukes around otherwise wouldn't have. Now that Tom Cooper is famous and is being quoted, expect him to be reined in or subverted.

And I agree, these western experts are double edged swords and we shouldn't be giving them the air time. But, our channels did jump up to him and everyone gave him bandwidth, he came up with a very sharp summary saying India had a clear-cut victory. That's what our channels focussed on given their expertise in these matters.

I would have liked Indranil or Rohit vats to be interviewed who are quite technical but it does point to a shortage of civilian war historians and technical experts who can speak in simple easy to understand language without getting into highly technical or hyperbole stuff.

All of our youtube channels are carrying podcasts from ex-mil people and frankly it doesn't get as many eyeballs as they should because the communication is boring and often becomes technical. Thats' too much for our Janata. AIM for example is a good communicator for our Janata but lacks sufficient knowledge in depth and tends to mix fact and fiction. The guy gets eyeballs and is a big draw for media. It also points to our general need for validation not just from the gora, because our people even try to argue with logic with pakis only to be met by pakiness. Even BRF initially used to allow Pakis before banning them. Our janata is not where BRF is, they will get there.

[RCase]

Tom Cooper is one of the neutral guys and had a long collab with our late B Harry. If he was still with us, he would be the expert being interviewed.

However, these western analysts are a double edged sword. They could have interviewed someone like Indranil B or Rohit Vats however both are enthusiasts. We don’t seem to have civilian experts who do this kind of thing for a living. Look at the books he was authored. Btw. How does he know Jaguars attacked Sukkur or the kind of aircraft we lost. He has sources for sure but that deep in the IAF?

I would have liked to see our Dr Shiv, or a former Air marshal interview him. I think beyond a point when he realises our desi media have no clue
about aviation, he will just assume things to give us a good story. No way he has sources among serving IAF officers and retired ones will give him a good yarn.

The thing that I find hard to buy according to him is that on the first day, IAF would send a strike package of aircrafts into heavily defended enemy territory, without softening up their ADS. Also IAF getting surprised with the range of PL-15 and getting shot at, despite the proven ADS of India that was able to suppress all incoming missiles, drones and aircrafts. The Indian side had excellent intelligence as has been proven over the days. It is possible that Indian aircraft suffered some damage. That is part of war. The fairy tale of 5 aircraft being downed and none of their wreckage being spotted by any Indian citizen boggles the imagination. If 5 aircrafts were hit, then how did they manage to devastate 9 locations? If they were hit within Indian territory, there should at least 5 PL-15 missile (or similar) debris.

Overall, I was not very impressed with his analysis. I don't know why our media is in awe of a white guy giving his gyan. If he were a combat pilot veteran, it could have been more believable.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Gorapan beats logic any day in certain minds.

[nishant.gupta]

^^^ You took my words Gupta ji. Media uses white guys because public laps up whatever they ejaculate without realizing that his shit is of the same color

[Rudradev]

So, we had good enough intel to PIN POINT where Paki Nuke Maal was stored at a given day/hour/minute (remember, this stuff is constantly moved around)... but according to Tom Cooper, we didn't even have intel about the range of PL-15s supplied to Bakistan (and worse yet, IAF were such duffers that they sent dozens of planes hurtling into action while ASSUMING a lower range than normal for Pakistan's PL-15s).

Anything wrong with this picture?

[RCase]

^^^
Must be MS Simulator warrior!

[manish singh]

So, we had good enough intel to PIN POINT where Paki Nuke Maal was stored at a given day/hour/minute (remember, this stuff is constantly moved around)... but according to Tom Cooper, we didn't even have intel about the range of PL-15s supplied to Bakistan (and worse yet, IAF were such duffers that they sent dozens of planes hurtling into action while ASSUMING a lower range than normal for Pakistan's PL-15s).

Anything wrong with this picture?

I am no military expert, but below is what he has mentioned in one of his blogposts:

""Foremost, PL-15 not only has a max claimed range of 150-200km, but, it is capable of ‘cooperative targeting’. Means: while fired by a J-10C and/or JF-17C, it can be guided into the target by the Saab 2000 AWACS.

‘Problem’ (for the IAF): detecting such attacks is extremely problematic. Sure, the radar homing and warning systems installed on IAF fighter-bombers - including the very advanced Spectre system on IAF’s Rafales - were detecting emissions from the Saab 2000. But, these emissions do not ‘automatically’ mean that they are under attack. Usually, the ‘best’ warning of an attack by active- or semi-active radar homing missiles comes from the radar of the launching fighter jet. However, in the case of cooperative targeting, there is no such warning whatsoever. Or if, then only once weapons like PL-15E switch to their terminal flight phase, and activate their on-board radars.

Means: the involved IAF fighter-pilots were ‘double-suprised’. Firstly because the Pakistanis have opened fire into the Indian airspace, and then because they did so without any kind of electronic warning.""