Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[williams]

Perhaps to continue on another thread - but say, China helped Pakistan set up its air defenses, and India punched right through them. Will the fear of "air defenses down" postpone China's attempt to invade Taiwan?

One can even imagine that China will throw its considerable resources at fixing the problem, and then will want a combat test - so will equip Pakistan and egg it into another Op Sindoor scenario.

Is there a good China thread on which to consider how the strategic calculus of the entire region surrounding China changes for the next several years?

There should be a big qualitative difference between what ever was imported by Pakis vs what is in use by the Chinese. There is no way with such a large GDP and manufacturing base Chinese mall can be this bad. Pakis on the other hand has burnt their fingers too much to trust in Chinese equipment unless it is given to them completely free of cost. But you are right they will come back and we need to be ready for that. It is also possible Pakis will go back to their old uncle and rent themselves out. Americans are seeing India in a new light now. They may consider us to be more of a rival than a friend. We need to navigate all these now that we have demonstrated hard power.

[Luxtor]

Meanwhile ; "Victory parade and celebration in Pakistan Occupied Balochistan"
For Justice Peace and Dignity!
India stands with Balochistan!

Civilians organised a massive protest today in Kharan of Pakistan Occupied Balochistan against Pakistan Army’s atrocities against ordinary Baloch men, women and children

Look at the crowd in the above video: I like this closeup:

I am worried for these people of Baluchistan. Thinking what will the pukis do to them when the dust settles with India even temporarily. We need to somehow protect them also. We can't let them be massacred. The West and the rest of the world wouldn't care one bit.

However, having said that, I'm not sure if the banners they're holding with the Baluch flag and Indian flag are real or photoshopped. I mean would these people really do this, knowing what might happen to them, especially displaying the Indian flag?

[Luxtor]

Mr. Ramarao interview above is amazing and very informative and entertaining. Thanks for posting it here.

[arshyam]

Tom Cooper though is as far as I remember was a neutral guy and had a long collab with our late Harry B (PBUH). I had quoted Christine Fair only because her book detailed the modus operandi of how PA moves its nukes around otherwise wouldn't have.

My post wasn't aimed at anyone in particular saar, just surprised to see multiple people accepting our losses as a fact and posting on that basis. I had mentioned Christine Fair as an example only to support my point, and not in reference to your post.

All of our youtube channels are carrying podcasts from ex-mil people and frankly it doesn't get as many eyeballs as they should because the communication is boring and often becomes technical. Thats' too much for our Janata. AIM for example is a good communicator for our Janata but lacks sufficient knowledge in depth and tends to mix fact and fiction. The guy gets eyeballs and is a big draw for media.

True, then there are folks like Dr Shiv who can explain these things very well, but our media doesn't seem to know about people like him.

[A_Gupta]

This too, post Sindoor,
ARTISTS SALUTE ARMED FORCES | CHITRAVINA N RAVIKIRAN'S VAIRI MADA NASHANA
https://youtu.be/csL2FXaVexY?si=uPYHGUG2ClEedyJZ

[shaun]

It's seems pakis are Nuke nude and always have been , only safe keeping US eggs .

[ritesh]

One key learning for me - this comes from unconfirmed stories - is the PL-15E targeting with launch from fighter jets and course correction from AWACs to evade detection. That is a powerful combo if indeed true and worth investing in as a capability and also how to counter it with PLAAF. That initial surprise IAF got - again if true - might be one of the signals to the decision of hitting PAF air bases to disable their fighters from taking off.

But, does it work as advertised??

[pravula]

^^^ Thats a baseline feature for most modern AAMs with Radar guidance. Passive guidance combined with buddy targeting till its seeker goes active.

[Amber G.]

One key learning for me - this comes from unconfirmed stories - is the PL-15E targeting with launch from fighter jets and course correction from AWACs to evade detection. That is a powerful combo if indeed true and worth investing in as a capability and also how to counter it with PLAAF. That initial surprise IAF got - again if true - might be one of the signals to the decision of hitting PAF air bases to disable their fighters from taking off.

I don’t have a background in military systems, but as a scientist, I’d be cautious about some of these claims. Mid-course correction via AWACS sounds impressive, but the radar horizon limits what an AWACS can see at long ranges, especially against low-flying targets. Timing and data latency also become critical—steering a fast-moving missile via a third-party node in real time is non-trivial. Technically possible, but operationally quite demanding.

[A_Gupta]

@williams
> There should be a big qualitative difference between what ever was imported by Pakis vs what is in use by the Chinese.There is no way with such a large GDP and manufacturing base Chinese mall can be this bad.

I agree. But IMO, China will not embark on a military operation like invading Taiwan without being certain of success, and the Paki debacle would create doubts. If only they could combat-test their systems before going to war….

[vera_k]

Another theory floated here about a nuclear accident triggered by Pakistan itself. This can explain Indian denial about targeting the location.

Pakistan’s nuclear secrets on the brink

[Dileep]

PL-15 is claimed to have three guidance modes.
1. Own active radar seeker.
2. Passive radar seeker, using the radar of the launching platform.
3. Two-way data link guidance from AEW&C platform.

The counter to all these is jamming the missile itself. And youknowwhat? Rafales can do just that! It can actually see and jam the missile, while doing evasive maneuvers. The catch is, only in the frontal hemisphere.

Now you know why so many Pl-15s missed and recovered from ground.

[Amber G.]

Another theory floated here about a nuclear accident triggered by Pakistan itself. This can explain Indian denial about targeting the location.

Pakistan’s nuclear secrets on the brink

It is certainly possible (or even likely) to float nuclear accident/ radiation leak stories by Pakis for psyops etc.. (To make the nuclear bluff)..

BUT I’m skeptical of the article’s Chernobyl-scale comparisons. A missile accident near a suspected nuclear site doesn’t automatically mean large-scale radiation release. Without independent radiation data, medical reports, or IAEA confirmation, most of this remains speculative. The mention of boron and unusual flights is interesting but far from conclusive. Alarmist language without hard evidence doesn’t help.

---
BTW I today, Richard L. Garwin, a renowned physicist and key contributor to the development of the hydrogen bomb, and well known adviser to dozens of US presidents, has died. I put a post about that in physics dhaga .

(Because secrecy shrouded the development of America’s thermonuclear weapons programs, Dr. Garwin’s role in creating the first hydrogen bomb was virtually unknown for decades outside a small circle). It was Dr. Teller, whose name had long been associated with the bomb, who first publicly credited him. He has significant contributions to nuclear weapons, and later for nuclear arms control )

[mukkan]

PL-15 is claimed to have three guidance modes.
1. Own active radar seeker.
2. Passive radar seeker, using the radar of the launching platform.
3. Two-way data link guidance from AEW&C platform.

The counter to all these is jamming the missile itself. And youknowwhat? Rafales can do just that! It can actually see and jam the missile, while doing evasive maneuvers. The catch is, only in the frontal hemisphere.

Now you know why so many Pl-15s missed and recovered from ground.

Rafale’s RBE2 AESA Radar in optimal conditions can detect A2A missiles at 25-50KM depending on the RCS. If Su-30 MKI is using PESA, detection range reduces to 15-30KM. Assuming it was detected at 50KM, A2A at mach 4 speed will take 38s to hit. At mach 5 speed, it will take only 30s. Effective countermeasures require the pilot to act within the first 10-15s to maximize survival chances.
If the A2A missile is detected by AWACS and relayed via data links, the Rafale/Su-30 could receive warnings earlier (100-200KM), increasing reaction time to 75-150s for mach 4 missiles and 60-120s for mach 5 missiles. There are some reports of AWACS datalink integration with Su-30, integration with Rafale just started? Even if it was integrated with Su-30, may be it was not detected as incoming threat in some case.
maybe this technical discussion can be moved to Indian Air Force News & Discussion by admins

[Aditya_V]

PIB Statement on Operation SIndoor

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=2128748

Nine Terror Camps Eliminated: India successfully destroyed nine major terror launchpads in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), targeting Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen facilities. Over 100 terrorists were killed in action.

Exposure of Pakistan’s Air Defense Weaknesses: Indian Air Force bypassed and jammed Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defense systems, completing the mission in just 23 minutes using Rafale jets, SCALP missiles, and HAMMER bombs, demonstrating India’s technological edge.

India’s Air Defense Superiority Displayed: India’s multi-layered air defense, including the indigenous Akashteer system, shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. This also showcased India’s growing capabilities in exporting advanced defense systems.

Airstrikes on Pakistani Military Installations: On May 9–10, India became the first country to strike 11 airbases of a nuclear-armed nation in a single operation, destroying 20% of Pakistan’s air force assets. High casualties were inflicted at Bhoolari Airbase, including the death of Squadron Leader Usman Yusuf and destruction of key fighter jets.

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=2128746

Offensive Actions with Pinpoint Accuracy

India's offensive strikes targeted key Pakistani airbases- Noor Khan and Rahimyar Khan with surgical precision. Loitering munitions were used to devastating effect, each finding and destroying high-value targets, including enemy radar and missile systems.

Loitering munitions also known as "suicide drones" or "kamikaze drones", are weapons systems that can hover or circle a target area, searching for a suitable target before attacking.

All strikes were executed without loss of Indian assets, underscoring the effectiveness of our surveillance, planning, and delivery systems. The use of modern indigenous technology, from long-range drones to guided munitions, made these strikes highly effective and politically calibrated.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile : Surprise New York Times exposes Official DGISPR lies.India hit Pakistan very hard, but Pak couldn’t do anything back. Satellite images show no damage as Pak claimed.
Even NYT now forced to speak the (some) truth.

[vonkabra]

Arjun Subramaniam on Op Sindoor. Having read his books, I find his take to be particularly interesting:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VipMVL2I-v8[/youtube]

[Jayram]

Too vivid and clear not to share like HiDef clear from John Spencer

https://x.com/SpencerGuard/status/1922492011526996012


Some excerpts
Operation Sindoor: A Decisive Victory in Modern Warfare
This wasn’t just tactical success. It was doctrinal execution under live fire.
Strategic Effects Achieved
1. A New Red Line Was Drawn—and Enforced
Terror attacks from Pakistani soil will now be met with military force. That’s not a threat. It’s precedent.
2. Military Superiority Demonstrated
India showcased its ability to strike any target in Pakistan at will—terror sites, drone coordination hubs, even airbases. Meanwhile, Pakistan was unable to penetrate a single defended area inside India. That is not parity. That is overwhelming superiority. And that is how real deterrence is established.
3. Restored Deterrence
India retaliated forcefully but stopped short of full war. The controlled escalation sent a clear deterrent signal: India will respond, and it controls the pace.
4. Asserted Strategic Independence
India handled this crisis without seeking international mediation. It enforced doctrine on sovereign terms, using sovereign means.

[pravula]

PL-15 is claimed to have three guidance modes.
1. Own active radar seeker.
2. Passive radar seeker, using the radar of the launching platform.
3. Two-way data link guidance from AEW&C platform.

The counter to all these is jamming the missile itself. And youknowwhat? Rafales can do just that! It can actually see and jam the missile, while doing evasive maneuvers. The catch is, only in the frontal hemisphere.

Now you know why so many Pl-15s missed and recovered from ground.

Rafale’s RBE2 AESA Radar in optimal conditions can detect A2A missiles at 25-50KM depending on the RCS. If Su-30 MKI is using PESA, detection range reduces to 15-30KM. Assuming it was detected at 50KM, A2A at mach 4 speed will take 38s to hit. At mach 5 speed, it will take only 30s. Effective countermeasures require the pilot to act within the first 10-15s to maximize survival chances.
If the A2A missile is detected by AWACS and relayed via data links, the Rafale/Su-30 could receive warnings earlier (100-200KM), increasing reaction time to 75-150s for mach 4 missiles and 60-120s for mach 5 missiles. There are some reports of AWACS datalink integration with Su-30, integration with Rafale just started? Even if it was integrated with Su-30, may be it was not detected as incoming threat in some case.
maybe this technical discussion can be moved to Indian Air Force News & Discussion by admins

I hope Rafale is not using only its radar to detect A2A missiles. It would be sucidal. A2A tend to follow a lofted profile, and against a cold dark night sky, a rocket motor will set off a lot of passive IRST systems...Also, what do you mean PESA has a smaller detection range than AESA? Can you please back it up with logic?

[ashthor]

Any news of what happened on the IB and LOC? Lot of exchanges happened many pak posts got blown up(a few videos on x)...any other details?

[rajkumar]

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Serious blow back against Turkish Owned Companies Operating in India

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra Makes Shocking Revelations About Turkey President Erdogan & His Family Members

Operation Sindoor Updates: On Times Now's show, Newshour Agenda, host Madhavdas GK decodes chronology of 'Operation Sindoor' which was undertaken by Indian armed forces to avenge Pahalgam terror attack. Abhijit Iyer-Mitra said, "Most of Turkish Airlines pilots are retired Turkish Air Force pilots...There is a whole load of things coming together in terms of electronic intelligence...It is all a clear and present danger to the Indian Republic." Watch the video to know more.

[uddu]

American F-35 Stealth Fighter, F-16 Nearly Shot Down by Houthis | Vantage with Palki Sharma
...
Tit for Tat. American Media peddled fake news against Indian military during Operation Sindoor. We exposed their vulnerabilities.
MoD Note: The above is already posted here ---> viewtopic.php?p=2648781#p2648781

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We need to find alternative to US weaponry in Indian service. Is there any Russian equivalent to P-8I? The others like IMRH etc will replace the choppers. Drones will be done too. The maritime patrol aircraft gap also needs to be plugged. Another important aspect is we brought some system to monitor maritime traffic. Need a replacement developed for that as well.

Indian Navy’s INS Vikrant, 35 Warships Were Preparing to Hit Karachi

Details continue to emerge from Operation Sindoor. The Indian Navy was deployed extensively in the Northern Arabian Sea. INS Vikrant Aircraft carrier and its carrier battle group were deployed and active. Several submarines were also deployed by the Indian Navy. The 36-warship Armada was tasked to hit select targets, including Karachi and the Karachi port. The Indian Navy has a history with the Karachi Port. During Operation Trident, the navy hit the Karachi Port during the 1971 war. Why is the Karachi Port the lifeline for Pakistan? Palki Sharma tells you more.



PM Modi Hails Made-in-India Weapons Used in Op Sindoor

Made-in-India weapons performed well in Operation Sindoor. The Brahmos missile hit targets deep inside Pakistan. The Nagastra-1 loitering munition hit terror camps across the border. The Akash air defence missile system intercepted incoming drones and missiles. This was the first time that indigenous weapons were put in battle condition where the delivered with pinpoint accuracy. India is now emerging as a reliable and cost-effective weapons maker as Armenia and the Philippines look to place more orders for weapons. Palki Sharma tells you more.

[Deans]

Too vivid and clear not to share like HiDef clear from John Spencer

https://x.com/SpencerGuard/status/1922492011526996012


Some excerpts
Operation Sindoor: A Decisive Victory in Modern Warfare

I follow John Spencer. He's US army and an instructor at West Point. He's done some seminal work on urban warfare, incl, his latest
paper on Hamas's tunnel warfare. Unlike armchair analysts, he has been on the ground with IDF teams specializing in tunnel warfare.

[Deans]

Serious blow back against Turkish Owned Companies Operating in India

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra Makes Shocking Revelations About Turkey President Erdogan & His Family Members

I've worked in Turkiye. This is not new.
The more progressive Turks are appalled by his turn to radical Islam and using the army and mob to enforce his dictatorship.

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.

[nishant.gupta]

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.

Do a Trump on them. Ask them to find an Indian buyer for all their operations within a month, sell and exit or face cancellation of contracts. Airports are a much bigger security risk than tictoc.

[uddu]

“On May 7 morning we held Pak accountable…” Jaishankar’s bold statement on India’s Operation Sindoor

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Wednesday said India held Pakistan accountable on May 7 through Operation Sindoor, targeting those responsible for cross-border terrorism.



https://x.com/RShivshankar/status/1922982758776803378
@RShivshankar
Opps, Look who's punctured the Indian anti-Modi ecosystem's balloon. Hear Trump change his tune on "mediation".
Trump: I won't say I did it, but sure as hell helped settle the problem between India and Pak."
Earlier Trump had said he had "brokered peace between India and Pakistan.”

https://x.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1922690501687353404
@NewsArenaIndia
BJP MP Sudhanshu Trivedi-

"Govt has nowhere used the word ceasefire. Hence, Congress should refrain from making unnecessary and unwarranted comments on this issue as Operation Sindoor is still not over."

[putnanja]

BIG BREAKING India Begins Crackdown Against Turkey, Cancels Celebi Aviation's Security Clearance in Interest of National Security

Now, they should cancel the wet least of Turkish airlines that Indigo has. It brings no benefit to India, just feeding travellers to Turkey's hub

[Manish_P]

....

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.

Their contract seem to have been terminated.

Aapke mooh mein Baklava... oops.. Ghee Shakkar.

[nishant.gupta]

....

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.

Their contract seem to have been terminated.

Aapke mooh mein Baklava... oops.. Ghee Shakkar.

meri taraf se jalebi bhi

[S_Madhukar]

Progressive Turks, Iranians, Bakis are everywhere but useless because they have dual passports so nothing changes at home. Toorki specially plays double games under its NATO garb - good decision … all these are al taqqiya double dholkis

[Deans]

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.

Do a Trump on them. Ask them to find an Indian buyer for all their operations within a month, sell and exit or face cancellation of contracts. Airports are a much bigger security risk than tictoc.

Done ! I wrote to the minister and secretary 2 days ago (I'm sure many other's represented too). Celebi's license has been revoked.
I never thought this govt would act so fast ! Even as a Modi supporter, I am impressed, Jai Hind.

Double celebration - The marble dealers of Udaipur have decided to boycott Turkish imports - its 3000 cr a year.
These are ordinary folk putting the nation above profit.

[uddu]

India's AI Brain Akashteer - A Game-Changer in Operation Sindoor & Modern Warfare Explained

India's AI-driven Akashteer system revolutionized air defense during Operation Sindoor, enabling swift, precise retaliation against terrorist threats. By integrating real-time sensor data and automating threat responses, Akashteer ensured rapid neutralization of hostile targets, showcasing India's advanced military technology and commitment to self-reliance.

[Rakesh]

India's AI-driven Akashteer system revolutionized air defense during Operation Sindoor, enabling swift, precise retaliation against terrorist threats. By integrating real-time sensor data and automating threat responses, Akashteer ensured rapid neutralization of hostile targets, showcasing India's advanced military technology and commitment to self-reliance.

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[RCase]

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Former IAF pilot Gp Cpt. Augustine Vinoth interview. Excellent interview!
- Talks about Kirana Hills incident
- Augustine has a Ph.D. in the nuclear safety area
- Could PAK have tried to use Tactical Nukes?
- Pak's air defence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rneNkk2T9Q8

Did India Strike Pakistan Nuclear Facility At Kirana Hills? Fighter Pilot Podcast Unpacks

In this explosive episode, a former Indian Air Force Fighter Pilot Augustine Vinoth unpacks a long-rumored but never-confirmed operation: Did India carry out a covert strike on Pakistan’s nuclear facility at Kirana Hills? As speculation swirls around this high-stakes target deep inside Pakistani territory, the podcast dives into decades of secrecy, strategy, and shadow warfare.

[Manish_P]

...
Double celebration - The marble dealers of Udaipur have decided to boycott Turkish imports - its 3000 cr a year.
These are ordinary folk putting the nation above profit.

They may be salt-of-the-earth humble folk but they are well organised. The community is very tight knit and has many cross-relations by marriage.

[Cyrano]

Apple growers from Himachal Pradesh are calling for a ban on import of Turkish apples now!

[Kakkaji]

Revoke the MFN status of Turkey on national security grounds.

Ban Turkish citizens from serving as crew members on any domestic flights in India.

Ban Turkish Airlines from landing or taking off from India. Indigo should find a new partner, and build a new hub, in a country friendly towards India. Maybe Greece or Cyprus.

Ban banks in India from loaning any money for investing in projects in Turkey.

[chetak]

[Amber G.]

“On May 7 morning we held Pak accountable…” Jaishankar’s bold statement on India’s Operation Sindoor

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Wednesday said India held Pakistan accountable on May 7 through Operation Sindoor, targeting those responsible for cross-border terrorism.

<snip>

Thanks. This has to be RT's by everyone.

[chetak]

Indian tourists boycott turkey, imports of turkish fruits stopped, other steps will follow




India Begins Crackdown Against Turkey, Cancels Celebi Aviation's Security Clearance in Interest of National Security

India has revoked the security clearance of Turkish company Celebi Aviation after Turkey's role in helping Pakistan amid conflict with India was confirmed.

15th 2025,

In a major crackdown against Turkey for helping Pakistan amid conflict with India, the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) has cancelled the security clearance of Turkish firm Celebi Aviation. The company is involved in handling ground and cargo operations for several airlines at various Indian airports.

The security clearance for Celebi Aviation has been revoked with immediate effect in the interest of national security.

In its official order, the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) said, “The security clearance in respect to Celebi Airport Services India Pvt. Ltd, under the category Ground Handling Agency was approved by DG, BCAS on 21.11.2022.”

https://www.republicworld.com/india/ind ... an-tension