Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 May 2025 21:59

I thought Kejriwal is the master of 'U-turns'. But now I think he has to take special training from Trump.

"I won’t say I did it, but I surely as hell helped settle India-Pak issue."

Earlier, this Creditjeevi had said 'I brokered peace'.

What next? 'India didn't entertain me'?

WATCH VIDEO

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 May 2025 22:14

Vienna, Austria | "...Turkish government is in a similar position to the Pakistani.

At present, the Turkish government is a crazy Islamist in power who is misusing the religion for his purpose... Pakistan has been bankrupt for decades, always kept alive by some sponsor, from Saudi Arabia, then China, then Qatar... All this weaponry - US radar, Turkish command centres, Chinese fighter jets, Chinese missiles, indigenous jets and missiles.

All this has to be integrated into one operational system, where a single node can control all the operations and is better coordinated. However, there are more indications that this was a weak spot in the Pakistan Army forces.

The US radar is incompatible with their Chinese weapons... Firstly, the integration and secondly, how people are operating, were trained, had an impact... Perhaps, HQ-9 and HQ-16 systems are much better than they performed in Pakistani service," says Tom Cooper, Military aviation analyst and historian, on being asked about Pakistan using Turkish and Chinese-made weapons against India and the support extended to Pakistan by the two countries.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 May 2025 22:19

MEA has officially refuted ALL LIES of .@realDonaldTrump who is used to blow trumpet in THIN AIR.

US WAS NOWHERE INVOLVED IN 'UNDERSTANDING' b/w Bharat & Pakistan. #Modi Sarkar didn't ENTERTAIN US. Trade was NEVER part of ANY discussions.

This ends controversy which was never there. Now, Bharat's retaliation to fake heroics of Trump will be visible in Tarrifs & Defence Purchases.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 May 2025 22:37

chetak wrote: ↑15 May 2025 21:29 ....

Chalo Der Aaye Durust Aaye

After JNU and Jamia Millia Islamia, Maulana Azad National Urdu University (MANUU) has now TERMINATED its MoU with Turkey's Yunus Emre Institute.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 May 2025 22:45

UN designated Jaish-e-Muhammad’s Chief Terrorist Masood Azhar to get Rs. 14 crore relief assistance from Pakistan Government since 14 members of his family have been killed in Indian Air Strikes. #OperationSindoor

Dear IMF, next time just wire the money directly to Jaish-e-Muhammad

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 15 May 2025 22:56

Some new info here. I'm interpreting this report of dummy jets to imply that some electronic signatures were created where planes did not exist. So now we have another explanation for why so many PL15s were found on the ground.

Dummy jets

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 May 2025 23:07

Chetak, I am realizing Operation Sindoor is Operation Riddle 2.0 and confined to the air domain.
It's the battle of Punjab 2.0 just like 1965
Will write a longer post.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 15 May 2025 23:52

Operation Sindoor Updates: On Times Now's show, Newshour Agenda, host Madhavdas GK decodes chronology of 'Operation Sindoor' which was undertaken by Indian armed forces to avenge Pahalgam terror attack. Abhijit Iyer-Mitra said, "Most of Turkish Airlines pilots are retired Turkish Air Force pilots...There is a whole load of things coming together in terms of electronic intelligence...It is all a clear and present danger to the Indian Republic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLheiZ894yk

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 00:06

Manish_P wrote: ↑15 May 2025 18:43
Deans wrote: ↑15 May 2025 18:10 ....

My biggest concern is that a Turkish company - Celebi aviation does all the ground and cargo operations at 8 major Indian airports.
That's a huge security risk.
Their contract seem to have been terminated.

Aapke mooh mein Baklava... oops.. Ghee Shakkar.

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 16 May 2025 00:13

Nupur J Sharma
@UnSubtleDesi
And that my friends, is a ceasefire summarised.

Mohan Sinha
@Mohansinha
·
May 10
Replying to @UnSubtleDesi
That was probably the ‘alarming news’ Vance received. That America’s most valuable whore was about to get disrobed.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 00:31

Does Pakistan offer 1 crore to each terrorist killed by unknown gunmen?

If India was doing it, why does dying by a missile or drone merit more compensation than a bullet? Inquiring minds want to know!

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 16 May 2025 02:03

Mod Note: Please edit your post to learn how to post YouTube videos. I have edited your post. Please DO NOT post just the video and a title. Please provide a description of the video (either from the video itself or even in your own words). It helps readers and/or posters who are following the thread. Thank You for your co-operation in this matter.

"New Bharat Can’t Be Touched": Ex-DRDO Chief on Pakistan Strikes

Ex-DRDO and BrahMos chief Dr. Sudhir Kumar Mishra speaks to CNN News18 on India’s robust response to Pakistan’s drone and missile attacks. He highlights India's unmatched air defense strength and asserts that this "New Bharat" is fully capable of both attack and defense.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 02:31

Meanwhile sharing something I shared with more diplomatic language for US audience.

>>
Looks like Senator Alex Padilla learned his lesson the hard way. After his eyebrow-raising {could have used a stronger word} us response to the Pahlgama terrorist attack, where he bizarrely blamed India's policies instead of condemning the attack, many of us, including the Hindu American Foundation (HAF), were quick to call him out. And guess what? He listened.

The Before and After:

Initial Response: Padilla's first letter was dodging the issue and focusing on alleged religious freedom issues in India. A disturbing attempt to appease certain groups rather than standing with the victims.

Revised Response: Thankfully, after facing heat from constituents like us, Padilla issued a revised statement strongly condemning the terrorist attack and expressing sympathy for the victims. This time, he got it right, acknowledging the suffering of Hindu civilians and emphasizing the need for accountability. (Funny - he said earlier statement was sent in an "error"

)

It's clear that our voice made a difference. Feedback can be a powerful tool, and atleast in in this case, it seems to have prompted Padilla to revisit his stance. Kudos to those who spoke up, including HAF, for pushing him to do better.

While I am Padilla corrected his course, it's essential to keep holding our representatives accountable. Padilla's revised stance is a step in the right direction, but we'll be watching closely to see if his actions align with his words. After all, as they say, "actions speak louder than words."

---
(There are more and more cases, from what I can see, some of law makers are speaking much more clearly and decent ways here.. but Indian community (and all decent people) ought to give right people support)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 02:55

After NY Times .... that Indian origin Irish lady et all ...Must be heart broken

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 May 2025 03:20

Link:

'Dummy' aircraft, Brahmos, Crystal Maze: The night the IAF destroyed Pakistan's air defence and targeted its air bases
https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/dumm ... 4708/?s=35
15 May 2025

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 May 2025 03:25

Haven't seen this one before possibly from kirana

https://x.com/DivineHind277/status/1923 ... MHvSw&s=19

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 16 May 2025 03:29

IAEA says there is no radiation leakage from any nuclear facility in Paastan. Also it says there were no planes bringing boron.

Has IAEA made measurements on the ground (or remotely) to be able to assert this ?

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... -10007208/

This appears completely at odds with what the Indian analysts on youtube are saying, including evacuations of people living nearby the nuclear materials/weapons sites. What do you think ?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 04:19

> IAEA says there is no radiation leakage from any nuclear facility in Paastan.

Just contemplate that the IAEA had to make such a statement. That is way more significant than the truth or falsity of their statement.

Unless there is a new Wikileaks, we may never know the truth of what happened. We have been told (e.g.,Retd. Lt Gen Narayanan) that GoI doesn't want them to talk about it.

It doesn't matter that we don't know. We do know that something happened that led the IAEA to have to make this statement. They didn't have to make such a statement for the around 200 other countries in the world.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 16 May 2025 04:21

Nothing can be confirmed until it's been officially denied.

williams · Post by **williams** » 16 May 2025 04:38

ramana wrote: ↑16 May 2025 03:20 Link:

'Dummy' aircraft, Brahmos, Crystal Maze: The night the IAF destroyed Pakistan's air defence and targeted its air bases
https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/dumm ... 4708/?s=35
15 May 2025

So Pakis fired Chinese dummy pl-15 mall at Indian electronic dummies and claimed some score, while India cleaned up targets deep inside their country. Then in puzzled state of panic begged for cease fire.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 16 May 2025 04:45

A_Gupta wrote: ↑16 May 2025 04:19
Just contemplate that the IAEA had to make such a statement. That is way more significant than the truth or falsity of their statement.

Well, the IAEA is considered the global "watchdog" for nuclear-related emissions, disasters, risks, proliferation. They routinely issue statements on such matters (these days mostly Ukraine, Russia, Japan):

https://www.iaea.org/news?type=3243

I don't yet see any official statement from them on Paastan. Maybe they are working on it, given its been just a few days from the event.

To me, a "significant" point would be if no official statement is placed on the IAEA website following these news reports. They all just mention an "IAEA spokesperson" said there was no radiation, but no further details (who, when, where).

Today Rajnath Singh has urged IAEA "to oversee all Pak nuclear programs".

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 04:56

I think this is the original news-report, and yes, it is meaningless.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... -10007208/

The global nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that there has been “no radiation leak” from any nuclear facility in Pakistan after the escalated military engagement with India.

The Vienna-based global nuclear watchdog’s reply, to a query from The Indian Express, ties in with the earlier response by the Indian Air Force that India has not hit any target in Pakistan’s Kirana Hills, which is reported to house some nuclear installations.

“We are aware of the reports you are referring to. Based on information available to the IAEA, there has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan,” an IAEA spokesperson told The Indian Express on Tuesday in response to a query on whether any nuclear incident or spill has been brought to the notice of the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre.

williams · Post by **williams** » 16 May 2025 05:32

How will IAEA know about Paki military nuke facility? They are probably reporting on Paki civil nuke plants.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 06:23

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 06:24

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 06:25

williams wrote: ↑16 May 2025 05:32 How will IAEA know about Paki military nuke facility? They are probably reporting on Paki civil nuke plants.

Sorry for a long reply - speaking as someone who is familiar with nuclear issues in the region here is some context:

(Read if interested, I gave some background for Kirana Hills etc in few previous posts)

It's a valid point -- The IAEA mainly monitors civil nuclear facilities — not military ones — unless a country specifically brings them under safeguards. Pakistan’s military sites, like the Kirana Hills, are not under IAEA oversight, so obviously the IAEA can't directly verify anything about those.

That said, when the IAEA says "no radiation leak," they’re speaking based on:

- What they see from civilian sites they do monitor,

- Other sources like satellite data, global environmental monitoring, and

- Any alerts that would come through international systems like the Incident and Emergency Centre.

Now, could something have happened at a military site without IAEA knowing? In theory, yes — but a real radiation leak (not some minor lab spill, but one with public or cross-border consequences) is very hard to hide.

India has excellent monitoring:

- BARC and DRDO have real-time radiation sensors in multiple regions.

- ISRO’s satellites provide high-res surveillance of key locations.

- Defense and intel agencies monitor for thermal anomalies, ELINT, and fallout indicators.

- India also picks up on atmospheric signatures through sampling — any unusual spike would get flagged fast.

Plus, global systems like the CTBTO’s IMS track radioactive particles worldwide.

If there had been any serious leak, India would know, and it would be very hard to suppress.

So while it's fair to point out the IAEA doesn’t see everything, between their tools, India’s own capabilities, and global networks — we’d almost certainly have some sign if there were a real incident.

----
PS: One thing — having had some exposure to Pakistan’s academic and technical environment — it’s honestly hard to overestimate their capacity for self-inflicted mistakes. So yes, it’s entirely possible something (even significant event) happened at Kirana Hills (not necessarily what the rumors claim but still important), and they’re trying to keep it under wraps.

But if that's the case — we’ll know soon enough

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 06:29

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 07:02

I was monitoring IAEA and other sources - FWIW - at present

IAEA - says - "There has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan"

India Air Marshal AK Bharti stated on May 12, 2025:

"India has not conducted any airstrikes on Pakistan’s Kirana Hills," (He had a smile which many noticed too).

Pak: AFAIK - As of now, there has been no official statement from the Pakistani government. about this incident at Kirana Hills. But they have lied before. (In 2021, Pakistan's lied - Indian media reported about the seizure of radioactive material at Mundra Port from a\vessel originating from Karachi, Pakistan, containing container which earlier transported radioactive fuel from China to Pak in K-2 nuclear plant.. India caught it.. etc.).

US: NO official statements from the U.S confirming or denying However, reports have indicated that Indian missile-drone strikes on several Pakistani airbases, especially PAF Base Nur Khan, prompted U.S. intervention for a ceasefire agreement.- they certainly were spooked.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 07:15

Worth reading and watching the video from this excellent post .. Thanks RCase for posting it:

RCase wrote: ↑15 May 2025 20:19

Former IAF pilot Gp Cpt. Augustine Vinoth interview. Excellent interview!
- Talks about Kirana Hills incident
- Augustine has a Ph.D. in the nuclear safety area
- Could PAK have tried to use Tactical Nukes?
- Pak's air defence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rneNkk2T9Q8

Did India Strike Pakistan Nuclear Facility At Kirana Hills? Fighter Pilot Podcast Unpacks

In this explosive episode, a former Indian Air Force Fighter Pilot Augustine Vinoth unpacks a long-rumored but never-confirmed operation: Did India carry out a covert strike on Pakistan’s nuclear facility at Kirana Hills? As speculation swirls around this high-stakes target deep inside Pakistani territory, the podcast dives into decades of secrecy, strategy, and shadow warfare.

There is excellent article detailing the same points by the same author:
Ghosts of Kirana Hills

(I know Augustine Vinod for quite some time - we follow each other in SM and have excnged views.
He brings out points , quite articulately , consistent with I have posted here - but with much more defense background being more familiar with Pak program- Recommend reading it in full)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 07:23

Amber G. wrote: ↑16 May 2025 07:02 I was monitoring IAEA and other sources - FWIW - at present

IAEA - says - "There has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan"

India Air Marshal AK Bharti stated on May 12, 2025:

"India has not conducted any airstrikes on Pakistan’s Kirana Hills," (He had a smile which many noticed too).

Pak: AFAIK - As of now, there has been no official statement from the Pakistani government. about this incident at Kirana Hills. But they have lied before. (In 2021, Pakistan's lied - Indian media reported about the seizure of radioactive material at Mundra Port from a\vessel originating from Karachi, Pakistan, containing container which earlier transported radioactive fuel from China to Pak in K-2 nuclear plant.. India caught it.. etc.).

US: NO official statements from the U.S confirming or denying However, reports have indicated that Indian missile-drone strikes on several Pakistani airbases, especially PAF Base Nur Khan, prompted U.S. intervention for a ceasefire agreement.- they certainly were spooked.

Amber ji,

There are roughly 200 countries, give or take, and the bleddy IAEA has never made such a statement regarding any of the other countries.

what's so special about the pakis that the IAEA had to literally get out of bed and make this statement and even more curiously, why did they do it

or is the old adage which says "never believe any statement unless and until it has been officially denied" true in this case

especially after a respected Air Marshal of the IAF made this statement: "India has not conducted any airstrikes on pakistan’s kirana hills," (He had a smile which many noticed too)

everyone smiles during press briefings. They have to ......

Moreover, it is a UN mandated rule and it's not as though he had a choice in the matter.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 07:31

ORF: Operation Sindoor: Is India Rewriting the Rules of Engagement? | Sushant Sareen
https://youtu.be/nk0FMrAUuVM?si=D85A_M0CnR-R_B6J

Too complex to easily summarize.
Some key points:
1. India has (re?) discovered the utility of force.
2. India needs to increase defense expenditure, because Op Sindoor++ requires even more capabilities; India lives in a grim security environment; and that the cost of deterrence is less than the cost of a war.
3. Pakistan has a well-coordinated and funded disinformation apparatus, GoI has to work better to let the (disorganized) Indian janata to use keyboard warriors to significant effect.
4. India's performance in this episode is spectacular.
5. Munir failed in his objective of re-internationalizing Kashmir; he has succeeded in rallying Pakistan around him, making his position more secure. Another motive was payback for the insurgencies going on in Pakistan, that too did not land a blow.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 07:31

> what's so special about the pakis that the IAEA had to literally get out of bed and make this statement and even more curiously, why did they do it

The Indian Express asked them, that is why.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 16 May 2025 07:46

williams wrote: ↑16 May 2025 04:38
ramana wrote: ↑16 May 2025 03:20 Link:

'Dummy' aircraft, Brahmos, Crystal Maze: The night the IAF destroyed Pakistan's air defence and targeted its air bases
https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/dumm ... 4708/?s=35
15 May 2025
So Pakis fired Chinese dummy pl-15 mall at Indian electronic dummies and claimed some score, while India cleaned up targets deep inside their country. Then in puzzled state of panic begged for cease fire.

Yes, and this explains their confident statements (which ties into their mindset of empty bravado) about taking down 1 each of our fighter types, like one would take one piece of different items in a buffet table. So looks like we lulled them into thinking that our fighters were down

, but no wreckage was seen anywhere.

Reminds me of an old military scenario written by our Dileep saar, where we'd put in a decoy "noisemaker" in one of our subs to fool the Americans.

williams · Post by **williams** » 16 May 2025 07:55

5. Munir failed in his objective of re-internationalizing Kashmir; he has succeeded in rallying Pakistan around him, making his position more secure. Another motive was payback for the insurgencies going on in Pakistan, that too did not land a blow

This sort of thing can only happen in Pakistan. You lose 20% of your air force to extend your tenure.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 08:10

the post is new but the image is old.

it's a perfect fit

Lo sir ji...Fully made in India wala response. Aapke beete hue dino ki yaadein taaza karwane

@pbhushan1

Amidst information coming from International media & defence analysts (Not denied by our Air Force spokesman) that we lost multiple fighter jets including Rafales to Pakistan’s Chinese made fighters, the focus must also shift to our infamous Rafale deals.

We bought Rafales for >4x price of the Chinese jets bought by Pakistan. We gave up transfer of technology & have virtually destroyed our HAL.

The blame for our present debacle squarely rests on our political leadership.

dho dala bhai ne

WATCH VIDEO

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 May 2025 08:24

Chetakji -
Good points..

Besides ..my AI says:

--

A_Gupta wrote: ↑16 May 2025 07:31 > what's so special about the pakis that the IAEA had to literally get out of bed and make this statement and even more curiously, why did they do it

The Indian Express asked them, that is why.

(Also you may look at my previous post were I give some background on Kirana Hills, and How routine is monitoring radiation ityadi )

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2025 08:27

Bing CoPilot tells me:
The overall odds of a pilot surviving an ejection are about 84%. A 2013 study found that the survival rate for low-level ejections (below 500 ft) is 51.2%, while the survival rate for ejections above 500 ft is 91.4%. One study published in the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (.gov).

Results: There were 562 low-level ejections identified. Out of this number, there were 274 fatalities, giving a low-level ejection survival rate of 51.2%. There were 2607 ejections that occurred above 500 ft (152 m), with a survival rate of 91.4%.

If we assume that
1. N Indian planes were shot down all
2. The ejections were all above 150 meters with a survival rate of 0.914. Round this to the chance of dying = 1/10, and this applies to a combat situation.
3. All Indian pilots are safe
4. The shot-down planes are double seaters and had both seats occupied (AI tells me that "Several Indian Air Force aircraft are two-seaters, including the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Dassault Rafale, LCA Tejas, and the MiG-29" and I assume that it is not hallucinating).
5. The probability of survival of the two crew are independent and thus 81/100

It should be possible to derive the probability of N planes shot down, given that all pilots survived. As N increases, it becomes increasingly improbable that all pilots survived.

Before computing this, though, are the assumptions reasonable?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 May 2025 08:38

Pakistan is frantically trying to hide the incident of a nuclear accident within Kirana Hills, which is resulting in numerous health complications.

Meanwhile, presence of US radiation monitoring aircraft is generating serious questions about the matter, which also is troubling Pakistani officials and journalists.

Kirana Hills, located in Pakistan's Sargodha district, is a heavily fortified military zone of significant strategic importance.

It is believed to house over ten underground tunnels, with widespread speculation suggesting these tunnels are used for the storage of Pakistan's nuclear warheads.

Its proximity to key military installations, including the Sargodha Air Base (approximately 20 km away) and the Khushab nuclear complex (around 75 km distant), underscores its sensitive nature.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 May 2025 08:48

Grok on the Bhatinda airplane debris.

https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_0799d3e ... 3ec96e47c6

Short answer the debris is not from 2025.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 16 May 2025 08:53

Cyrano wrote: ↑15 May 2025 21:02 Apple growers from Himachal Pradesh are calling for a ban on import of Turkish apples now!

Not just Himachal. Kashmiri apple growers are more affected and they need our support.
We should simply ban import of apples. I believe Turkey mis-labels the apples as Afghan to get preferential import duty.
The other source of import is China.