Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[A_Gupta]

In Thiruvananthapuram, I keep finding apples labeled as from New Zealand.

[ramana]

There were reports of vomiting etc.
So had someone check what AI can say.
Turns out most likely Cesium 137.
I suspect Pakistan was storing dirty bombs in Kirna Hills.
There was some chatter about dirty bombs after the Pak missile tests in late April.

Here is a link.

https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_d6e32fa ... 365d7c0e72

[Jayram]

https://youtu.be/UjHPAUyFZe4?si=yAFA5aLqQewhHn3r

Talk about Navic use and accuracy from a defense startup.
Here it is
2 ft by 3 ft in other words target the size of a door and providing updates while in flt to ensure real time updates for this accuracy.
No wonder the world is gobsmacked!

[ramana]

So far there is no definite description of what was used to target Nur Khan airbases and vicinity.
Group Captain assumes it's Brahmos Block III.

[williams]

Before computing this, though, are the assumptions reasonable?

We still need to know:

1. Number of planes in the Indian side
2. Number of electronic dummies
3. Number of planes on the Paki side
4. Number of Paki dummies (Joke )
5. Number of missiles locked and fired
6. Probability of a PL-15 hit against jammers, chaff counter measure etc.

Another part of the puzzles is what was the RoE on the Paki side. Will they fire at a plane that crosses the border or will they fire at all the planes they can see as soon as some crossed the border.

Given that India used loitering munition and long range missiles, the chances of fighters crossing the border is remote. So may be the RoE is to fire at planes once they see these standoff weapons being released. And finally if a plane is shot, what is the probability of it crashing in Paki territory and the probability of Pakis getting a picture of the wreckage within 1 hour of engagement.

And few more assumptions. The probability of Pakis lying is 100%. The probability of Paki pasand western liberal media publishing that lies is also 100%. And finally the probability of Indians analyzing this to death is also 100%.

[A_Gupta]

^^^^ @williams, good one.

I was just telling someone that even if India did a fly past of all of its squadrons, Pakis would still claim 5 planes shot down, and some deception was performed in the fly past.

I was also saying that the real loss are the 26 in Pahalgam + the 16+ in the LoC shelling and so on + 5 military personnel. Let Pakis focus on planes. India can afford 5 planes. What is the point of having a $4 trillion economy if planes count more than people?

[uddu]

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78 Attacks in 58 Locations: Baloch Separatists Challenge Pakistan

Pakistan's largest province is on the boil. Baloch fighters have launched a fierce new campaign. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has carried out 78 attacks in 58 locations this month alone, targeting military posts and convoys. This new offensive—Operation Herof 2.0—has shaken the Pakistani state. Baloch activists are now calling for international recognition of an independent Balochistan. They’re seeking support from India and the United Nations.

[williams]

India today is reporting additional 50k crore rupees (5.8 billion USD) allocation for new arms purchases post op Sindoor.

[ramana]

India has postponed indefinitely accepting the new Turkish envoy credentials reports Megh updates.

[Manish_P]

India today is reporting additional 50k crore rupees (5.8 billion USD) allocation for new arms purchases post op Sindoor.

How much of this to US firms.. maybe it can be transferred direct to the pak army account instead. Give direct to the kuttay & save work for DOGE.

[williams]

India today is reporting additional 50k crore rupees (5.8 billion USD) allocation for new arms purchases post op Sindoor.

How much of this to US firms.. maybe it can be transferred direct to the pak army account instead. Give direct to the kuttay & save work for DOGE.

I think Trump uncle has burned his bridge with Modi sarkar quite seriously. So if uncle thinks he can tweet away India into compliance, he is going to get a rude shock. The so called ally did nothing to help India other than make some neutral statements. It is quite possible even the engine deal will not come through. Therefore, I think most of this 6 billion USD will go to local hands, we might get few more regiments of S-400. BTW 6 billion USD is ton loads of money in terms of local PPP. So more guns, more missiles and more drones. Some serious investment in Kaveri and Kaveri 2.0 program. This is my hope.

[drnayar]

QUAD is DEAD.did one country speak up for India. China must be happy

[Aditya_V]

Funny how nobody asks Pakistan to Display F-16's, J-10CE or JF17 within the next week - before replacements arrive, huge shortages between claim vs actual number available will be shown.

Regarding the French, I think they are puzzled how we took the Pakis on and some angst against our Russia Foreign policy.

Looks like our jamming capabilities and Astra-1 performance has surprised everyone.

[Dilbu]

Post Pahalgam attack, Centre mulls sending bipartisan group abroad to present ‘India united’ pitch

The Indian government is thinking of sending out a bipartisan parliamentary delegation and special envoys to foreign countries to make a case about how the country suffered the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and how it is united, The Indian Express has learnt.

According to sources, the Indian government is thinking of putting together separate groups, mainly drawing from parliamentary standing committees, to begin with, who can effectively portray that India is united, as it has come under attack from Pakistan-sponsored terrorist organisations.

Sources said that they will head to Europe and Gulf countries to begin with.

[Dilbu]

After JNU and Jamia, Hyderabad’s Maulana Azad National Urdu University cancels MoU with Turkish institute

After Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and Jamia Millia Islamia in Delhi, Hyderabad’s Maulana Azad National Urdu University (MANUU) Thursday severed all ties with the Yunus Emre Institute in Turkey.

In a statement, MANUU, a central university established in 1998, announced the cancellation of its academic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Yunus Emre Institute with immediate effect. “The decision is taken in protest against Turkey’s support for Pakistan’s terrorist activities in the backdrop of Indo-Pak tensions.”

The university in Hyderabad signed an MoU with Yunus Emre Institute in January 2024 for five years, under which a diploma in Turkish language was started at its School of Languages, Linguistics & Indology. Services of a Visiting Professor were hired for this. “It is also worth mentioning that the visiting Professor from Turkey has already returned to his country,” the statement added.

[Dilbu]

After New York Times, Washington Post analysis of Indian strikes on Pakistan show extent of damage

[Cyrano]

IAEA distinguished itself by it's partisan stand regarding Zhaporizhye nuclear power plant and proved that it's a US/NATO puppet.

Coming a day after RM Rajnath Singh asking for Paks arsenal to be put under IAEA supervision it's clear that they are part of the cover up of whatever was not there in Kirana.

[Cyrano]

India today is reporting additional 50k crore rupees (5.8 billion USD) allocation for new arms purchases post op Sindoor.

How much of this to US firms.. maybe it can be transferred direct to the pak army account instead. Give direct to the kuttay & save work for DOGE.

Why such self defeating RR statement ji ?

[Cyrano]

Another part of the puzzles is what was the RoE on the Paki side. Will they fire at a plane that crosses the border or will they fire at all the planes they can see as soon as some crossed the border..

I'm guessing that the RoE on Pak side was to fire as many P15s ityadi as they can as soon as IAF fighters were detected by Eyree and passed on data (which itself is not conclusively validated) or their own radars, and hope something hits and claim victory. Irrespective of the IAF fighter was in Indian airspace or not.

[Avinandan]

We probably could do some activity to identifying the Pakistani Targets and associate with Weapons Of Choice (More economical the warhead the better).

Starting with PAF and its Assets
----------------------------------------
Refer List at the end post to get all 33 AFBases in Pakistan (Flying and Non-Flying Bases included).


Assumption (Putting a bigger figure to be on the safer side).:
1) Each PAF AFB has more HAS than the aircrafts stationed there : 100 HAS
2) Each PAF AFB : 10 Radar Stations
3) Each PAF AFB : 5 Craters on Runway to be done (Such that even trainer aircrafts with short takeoffs can't take off)

So, we need about 33 * 115 = 3745 * Continuous 3 DAYS Pounding = 11,385 Warheads to annihilate the PAF Alone!.
This number looks pretty sizeable number. However about 5-8 AFB are within 100 KMs and could be wrapped by Cheap MLRS systems and Long Range Glide Bombs (that takes care about 1/4th of the 11385 warheads required).

The rest 3/4th warheads would have to be expensive guided missiles.

PAF LIST (Taken from Wikipedia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_P ... orce_bases
1:PAF Base Talhar- Location:Badin
2:PAF Base Bahawalpur- Location:Bahawalpur
3:PAF Base Murid- Location:Chakwal
4:Chilas Airfield- Location:Chilas
5:Dhamial Airbase- Location:Dhamial
6:PAF Base Risalewala- Location:Faisalabad
7:PAF Base Chandhar- Location:Gujranwala
8:PAF Base Gwadar- Location:Gwadar
9:PAF Base Islamabad- Location:Islamabad
10:PAF Base Kallar Kahar- Location:Kallar Kahar
11:PAF Base Karachi- Location:Karachi
12:PAF Base Korangi Creek- Location:Karachi
13:PAF Base Malir- Location:Karachi
14:PAF Base Kohat- Location:Kohat
15:PAF Base Lahore- Location:Lahore
16:PAF Base Sindhri- Location:Mirpur Khas
17:PAF Base Multan- Location:Multan
18:PAF Base Lower Topa- Location:Murree
19:PAF Base Kalabagh- Location:Nathia Gali
20:Miranshah Airfield- Location:North Waziristan District
21:PAF Base Ormara- Location:Ormara,Gwadar
22:PAF Base Pasni- Location:Pasni,Gwadar
23:PAF Camp Badaber- Location:Peshawar
24:PAF Base Khalid- Location:Quetta
25:PAF Base Rahimyar Khan- Location:Rahimyar Khan
26:PAF Base Farid- Location:Rajanpur
27:PAF Base Sakesar- Location:Sakesar
28:PAF Base Nawabshah- Location:Shaheed Benazirabad District
29:PAF Base Qadri- Location:Skardu
30:PAF Base Sukkur- Location:Sukkur
31:Ghazi Airbase- Location:Tarbela
32:PAF Base Vehari- Location:Vehari
33:Shamsi Airfield- Location:Washuk District

PS: This is a very novice attempt from an AAM Abdul, so kindly forgive in case of any errors.

[Aditya_V]

Good work

That's why a ceasefire and I support it today, we need a lot more equipment to completely eliminate Pakistan, Take some Land we need, split the Country etc , we need 10 more years of Make in India at full speed, there will be a few more skirmishes in the next 5-10 years, that is if some Rahul Gandhi, INDI alliance with various Anti India parties don't capture power

[Cyrano]

I disagree completely. In those 10 years Pak will not stand still. They will sell themselves to anyone willing to give them some money and their military will pour all of that free $$$ to buy more arms and fund terrorists. In 10 years the same kind of military asymmetry will exist as now. And we will again make some retaliatory attacks and will find these very reasons to not go further.

[VKumar]

1. No resurrection of IWT.
2. No visa, even on humanitarian grounds.
3. No Trade - direct or indirect with terroristan or its supporters like turkey and china.
4. No overflights, to prevent suicide attacks.
5. No Cricket or any sports link, anywhere world wide, with terroristan and its supporters. Better to give walkover.

[VKumar]

you’re diving into a spicy topic! Let’s talk about UN-designated terrorists of Pakistani origin. The United Nations Security Council, through its ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, maintains a list of individuals and entities tied to terrorism, and I can pull some names that fit your query based on available data.

A few big names stand out. First, there’s Hafiz Saeed, the mastermind behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed over 160 people. He’s the founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a group the UN has designated as a terrorist organization since 2005. Saeed himself was added to the UN sanctions list in December 2008. He’s Pakistani, born in Sargodha, Punjab, and has been a thorn in the side of India-Pakistan relations for decades.

Then you’ve got Masood Azhar, the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), another UN-designated terrorist group since 2001. Azhar was personally listed by the UN in May 2019 after years of pressure, especially from India, following attacks like the 2019 Pulwama bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops. Azhar hails from Bahawalpur, Pakistan, and his group has been a key player in militancy in Kashmir.

Another name is Dawood Ibrahim, a notorious underworld don tied to terrorism. He’s been on the UN list since 2003 for his links to Al-Qaida and LeT, particularly for financing terrorist activities. Dawood was born in Khed, India, but he’s long been based in Karachi, operating with alleged protection from Pakistani authorities—something Pakistan denies, of course. His role in the 1993 Mumbai bombings made him a global target.

There’s also Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, a senior LeT operative, also listed by the UN in 2008. He was a key planner of the Mumbai attacks and comes from Okara, Pakistan. Despite being arrested, he’s reportedly been given a lot of leeway, which has fueled accusations of Pakistan’s complicity.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room—Pakistan’s role. The country has been called out for years as a safe haven for terrorists, with the UN and countries like India, Afghanistan, and the US pointing fingers. Just last year, in 2024, a UN report highlighted how groups like LeT and JeM continue to operate training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan’s government often denies these claims, saying they’re cracking down, but the evidence keeps piling up—like Imran Khan’s 2019 admission that 30,000–40,000 armed terrorists were on Pakistani soil. That’s a lot of “non-state actors” to keep track of, huh?

I could dig deeper, but these are some of the heavy hitters. The UN list is long, and not everyone’s origin is crystal clear, but these guys are definitely Pakistani and definitely on the radar. What’s your take on this mess?

[Cyrano]

Mod Note: Please edit your post to learn how to post YouTube videos. I have edited your post. Please DO NOT post just the video and a title. Please provide a description of the video (either from the video itself or even in your own words). It helps readers and/or posters who are following the thread. Thank You for your co-operation in this matter.

ATE analyses press briefing of Senior Indian military officers.

ANALYSIS / DEBUNK / EXPLANATION OF INDIAN STRIKES IN PAKISTAN

Hello everyone, welcome to this new video. We will analyze the Indian press conference following the events of May 7, 2025, between India and Pakistan. Fly safe!

[Prem Kumar]

Avinandan: thanks for the detailed write up. But I think you are overestimating # of HAS per airbase. Its more likely to be 20 on average. So, we need 1/5th the number of munitions that you estimated

My view is that PAF can be eliminated in a decapitation strike within one night. It took us only 23 minutes of "Measured response" to cause this level of damage to 11 airbases. If we don't have enough munitions to handle all PAF airbases already, we should fill the gap so that our ammo supports our war-objective. We will need a 1,000 Pralays to do the job, in addition to Brahmos, Scalp, etc

Once PAF is gone, 3 other objectives become achievable:

1) Breaking up Pakistan: their biggest stick against Balochi & Pashtun separatism is their Air Force. Without it, their Army will be stretched too thin to stop those provinces from leaving.
2) Reclaiming PoK.
3) De-nuclearizing Them.

#3 might have to be done before #2. For #3, other steps are required, like:

a) Taking out their air-defenses, which will take a bit longer. Their static defenses are dead within 48 hours but their mobile ones will take a few weeks to mop-up.

b) Take out their offensive missile capability. With PAF gone, 90% of their Nuke-deterrence is gone. Taking out their land-based missiles will leave them with no delivery platforms.

c) Securing their nukes - this is the hardest part. But if (a) and (b) are done after PAF is gone, we buy ourselves a breather.

Absence of PAF also resets the window for everyone, including the US. We can draw a new redline that any action to re-create PAF, will be considered an act of war against India & humanity (who in their right minds, will re-arm delivery systems for a nuclear-jihadi-entity?). Its one thing for the US/China to re-stock AMRAAMs or lost F-16s/JF-17s. Its quite another to supply the 1st squadron, post PAF destruction.

Zero-to-One has a totally different vibe than N-to-(N+1)

[vinod]

Why doesn't India buy the American weapons from afghans like stingers and javelins etc and hand over to Balochis?

We can sell them the replacements with a big credit and some more stuff with a sweetened deal.

[drnayar]

We probably could do some activity to identifying the Pakistani Targets and associate with Weapons Of Choice (More economical the warhead the better).

Starting with PAF and its Assets
----------------------------------------
Refer List at the end post to get all 33 AFBases in Pakistan (Flying and Non-Flying Bases included).


Assumption (Putting a bigger figure to be on the safer side).:
1) Each PAF AFB has more HAS than the aircrafts stationed there : 100 HAS
2) Each PAF AFB : 10 Radar Stations
3) Each PAF AFB : 5 Craters on Runway to be done (Such that even trainer aircrafts with short takeoffs can't take off)

So, we need about 33 * 115 = 3745 * Continuous 3 DAYS Pounding = 11385 Warheads to annihilate the PAF Alone!.
This number looks pretty sizeable number. However about 5-8 AFB are within 100 KMs and could be wrapped by Cheap MLRS systems and Long Range Glide Bombs (that takes care about 1/4th of the 11385 warheads required).

The rest 3/4th warheads would have to be expensive guided missiles.


PS: This is a very novice attempt from an AAM Abdul, so kindly forgive in case of any errors.

Thats a good start.

1] Pakis could have a decent air to surface weapons systems next time around ., likely shoot down quite a few of incoming
2] India would need to invest more in hypersonic weapon systems
3] There needs a change in policy : i still feel we were a bit soft on pakis this time., next time the AF should be able to bring on overwhelming firepower..the sort of "measured" response does not help

We need to 1.5 to 2x our air force !! ..PGMs probably 2x the numbers you are talking about. no way around this

The navy needs cruise missile subs !! , probably a boomer size fitted out with out with dozens of brahmos land attack variants

We are spending very little on defence., the time to ramp up things has come.

[Aditya_V]

ATE analyses press briefing of Senior Indian military officers.

The author seems to have some sort of agenda and posted a lot of stuff including Fake pics over the last few days, I mean watching the Aurangazeb guy who made no sense in his presentation and used Pakistan and professional a 1 million times. I suggest its better not to post his videos here.

[Hriday]

https://x.com/ajaykraina/status/1923257 ... P1evw&s=19

Experts, pl help decode. Is it an underground fuel facility or a nuclear storage cooking without detonation?
....

See the video in the link, a huge fireball after the missile hit on Kirana hill nuclear weapons storage site. Considering the distance of the videographer and the size of the hill the fireball could be much larger. Also I posted a video of the vertical missile contrails visible over the hill soon after the explosion. Many experts are suggesting Brahmos block 3 which specialise in vertical dive on hill based targets. So almost sure that we just didn't send a warning shot. We made sure that there is some serious damage there.

[Hriday]

https://x.com/Ray70409890/status/192328 ... XwKVQ&s=19

This video shows the exact moment when a Rampage missile hits Sundar Industrial estate in Lahore.

Rampage has a terminal vel of M1+.

PA and PAF HQ9P/HQ9BE and HQ16FE weren’t able to detect and intercept a Rampage!

How will they intercept Brahmos ?

What is special in the Sundar Industrial estate?

[a_bharat]

https://x.com/ajaykraina/status/1923257 ... P1evw&s=19

Experts, pl help decode. Is it an underground fuel facility or a nuclear storage cooking without detonation?
....

See the video in the link, a huge fireball after the missile hit on Kirana hill nuclear weapons storage site. Considering the distance of the videographer and the size of the hill the fireball could be much larger. Also I posted a video of the vertical missile contrails visible over the hill soon after the explosion. Many experts are suggesting Brahmos block 3 which specialise in vertical dive on hill based targets. So almost sure that we just didn't send a warning shot. We made sure that there is some serious damage there.

Old video from Yemen -- based on the comments. The op himself says it's psyops.

[Agasthi]

I looked all over the internet and am not clear about the PAF strike package that attacked the Kashmir valley on May 10 morning. Shiv Arror two aircraft were shot down by Akash. Does that mean the strike package penetrated the AD and were able to get through to the valley and did our aircraft not engage them? If they did our AA missiles weren’t as successful as the Akash?

It seems one of the aircraft shot down is a mirage 5. An old aircraft for a deep strike mission. Isn’t that suicidal?

[Agasthi]

What is special in the Sundar Industrial estate?

From the video, your could see the missile/ bomb hitting what seems like a vacant piece of land and that too near power lines. Could have been a AD missile unit?

[gakakkad]

The Author seems to have some sort of agenda and posted a lot of stuff including Fake pics over the last few days, I mean watching the Aurangazeb guy who made no sense in his presentation and used Pakistan and professional a 1 million times. I suggest its better not to post his videos here.

Inshallah boyz played well ! Mashallah we can interject hypersonic mijjile inshallah our boyz ejaculate very well after being hit by akash teer.

[Deans]

We probably could do some activity to identifying the Pakistani Targets and associate with Weapons Of Choice (More economical the warhead the better).

Starting with PAF and its Assets
----------------------------------------
Refer List at the end post to get all 33 AFBases in Pakistan (Flying and Non-Flying Bases included).

PS: This is a very novice attempt from an AAM Abdul, so kindly forgive in case of any errors.

Assume 50% of the missiles /MLRS will be intercepted.
Russia intercepts over 80% of HIMARS/Scalp missiles on similar high value targets.
Assume our own missile launch sites will be hit.

We need a combination of long distance drones, missiles and EW to take out radars and SAM and then airstrikes on at least maintenance
hangars, aircraft on the tarmac, ATC tower, etc.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

ATE analyses press briefing of Senior Indian military officers.

ATE Chuet- Pierre Henri has some interesting history as per rumours on the net.

Reddit story on how he was on Chinese pay.

French youtuber "Até Chuet" (made some DCS videos and dogfights with Growling Sidewinder, most notably) has been exposed as being a traitor that sold NATO carrier procedures and E-2C Hawkeye documentation to China, and went there to train Chinese aviators to NATO procedures.

Thought some of you might like to know about it.

It came out to the public in a "60 Minutes" equivalent TV broadcast in France just a few days ago, and it turns out our "CIA" equivalent and Navy insiders were aware of it for many years but everyone kept quiet to allow the investigation and the case to be brought together.

This endangers not only French aviators but American aviators, too, given how close NATO procedures are integrated between all the different allies.

This is wild to hear about. Mods, if this topic is not allowed, let me know.

Cheers everyone and happy landings.

News source from Le Parisien on 9th April 2025. He seems to have been in pay of the Chinese since 2018.

[Manish_P]

https://x.com/Ray70409890/status/192328 ... XwKVQ&s=19

This video shows the exact moment when a Rampage missile hits Sundar Industrial estate in Lahore.
...

"Joke is on you SDRE endians.

The industrial estate is only a name plate. The power lines don't carry any power

We made you endians use up a costly missile for digging a crater which we will use later for oil exploration

Inshallah. Mashallah. Zirak ul Allah. Ityadi"

[Jay]

See the video in the link, a huge fireball after the missile hit on Kirana hill nuclear weapons storage site. Considering the distance of the videographer and the size of the hill the fireball could be much larger. Also I posted a video of the vertical missile contrails visible over the hill soon after the explosion.

Hriday ji, I do not think this video is from pakis. The building, the and barren mountains all look like something from middle east while the kirana hills look different with a lot of shrubs and smaller trees. It looks different from the other kirana hills videos with the missile contrails showing.

[Cyrano]

With the very first video of ATE I posted in this thread, I mentioned that he was under investigation for some "consulting" he did in China.

It's amusing to see him struggle between dissing a platform he operated and trying to be impartial between two air forces based on mostly unverifiable public domain info.