Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[uddu]

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Erdogan’s Drone Link: Turkish Arms, Pakistani Strikes & India’s Response

Turkish drones were used in Pakistan’s May 10 attack on Indian territory. These drones are produced by a company chaired by Selçuk Bayraktar, Turkish President Erdogan’s son-in-law. India says these weapons were deployed to hit civilian targets in Punjab. In response, New Delhi is reviewing business ties with Turkish firms, revoking security clearances, and freezing diplomatic engagements. Can Türkiye justify arming Pakistan while expecting strong ties with India?



"Centre of Gravity": Pakistani Air Force Officer Goes Viral

Pakistan Air Force's Aurangzeb Ahmed is going viral in India after his embarrassing remarks during a press conference last week. Ahmed called India's S-400 missiles - the centre of gravity, and failed to answer a question about Pakistan's air defences. Palki Sharma brings you the Joke of the Day.



Balochistan Declares Independence. Can Pakistan Afford to Lose It?

Balochistan isn’t just Pakistan’s largest province—it’s its biggest problem. Rich in resources but poor in development, Balochistan has long been a simmering rebellion kept quiet by military force. But now, the Baloch aren’t just protesting—they’re demanding independence, going viral on social media and even reaching out to India. What’s driving this new wave of resistance? Why is Islamabad so afraid of losing Balochistan? And could this be the beginning of Pakistan’s great unravelling? Palki Sharma tells you.



India Turkey Boycotts | Turkey’s Celebi Moves Court Amid Boycott Heat

India's diplomatic tensions with Turkey and Azerbaijan have spilt over into aviation. Turkish ground-handling giant Çelebi Aviation, under fire for alleged links to pro-Pakistan and anti-India narratives, moved the Delhi High Court after the government’s reported decision to not renew its contracts at major Indian airports. The move comes as online campaigns calling for a #TurkeyBoycott and #Azerbaijan backlash intensify, following statements by Turkish President Erdoğan backing Pakistan during India's Operation Sindoor. India is reportedly considering reshaping its aviation partnerships amid the larger geopolitical fallout. Our correspondent @anany_b breaks down the legal challenge, while @KuheenaSharma explores the political undertones.

[uddu]

@ShashiTharoor

https://x.com/ShashiTharoor/status/1923607237697864196 ---> I am honoured by the invitation of the government of India to lead an all-party delegation to five key capitals, to present our nation’s point of view on recent events. When national interest is involved, and my services are required, I will not be found wanting. Jai Hind!

[Deans]

Adi Achint in discussion with Air Marshal G.S. Bedi (retd). The most logical discussion on the air war and debunking the Paki narrative. Very clinical and logical assessment, without any jingoism. Hitting terrorist targets first and then the AD, radars, air assets in the second phase was the price India paid for the 'morality' of the war goals - hitting only terrorist target and declaring intent of non-escalation. The second phase was due to the Pakis choosing the escalation by targeting military and civilian targets. Paki claims of downing aircraft could have been easily proved by the Pakis by showing radar plot of aircraft and missile, but they did not have anything to show.

Although Def talks tends to sensationalise some of their reporting, this one featuring AM Bedi (retd) is a gem and one I would recommend.

[Deans]

Approximately 150 thousand pakistani troops are present in Lahore Kharian Mangla Sialkot and Gujaranwala cantonments. They are near 90km of indian border and can be hit with Smerch Pinaka(Mangla Gujaranwala)along with 155mm guns and Grad MLRS (Lahore Kharian Sialkot). This will literally decimate the Pakistani army given sufficient concentration of artillery and MLRS. It will be more devastating than any air or naval attack. Imagine losing 150k soldiers it will be a stalingrad level loss

It takes literally 100+ shells to kill one army man who is mostly dug in (as the Ukraine war has shown). The number of civilian casualties will be higher. It's better to shell Lahore cantonment and the army installations in Muzaffarabad and Sialkot and explain away civilian casualties by saying Pak is embedding their army units among civilians (which is true in their cantonments) and we are a 3rd world country whose shells are not very precise.

The next time a bullet is fired across the LOC, Muzaffarabad should become uninhabitable. If they want to shell all border villages that's fine. They have a higher percentage of POK population in artillery range than on our side of the LOC. If they want shell cities, Lahore is 20% of their GDP. Amritsar is less than 1% of ours.

[uddu]

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Drones, Airstrikes, Media Narratives: Weapons Of Operation Sindoor

In the pilot episode of NDTV’s new Defence podcast, CTRL + ALT + Defence, Vishnu Som and Shiv Aroor discuss the many weapons used to either attack during Operation Sindoor (India’s response to the terrible Pahalgam terror attack) or the machinery used to defend the country at the borders and in the skies. The duo brings decades of experience, knowledge, ground expertise, and a sheer passion for everything related to India’s defence systems. Tune in to follow along the fiery, uncensored takes of NDTV’s in-house experts - Shiv Aroor and Vishnu Som.

[Aditya_V]

Any images of what we hit in PAF Skardu Airbase?

[Bharadwaj]

Op Sindoor: Inside story of what led Pakistan DGMO to make frantic calls for ‘ceasefire’

https://theprint.in/defence/op-sindoor- ... e/2628693/

Talking about the operations, sources also said that the much talked-about Chinese air-to-air missile PL-15, could not score a single hit.

So if we have any losses it is not because of the super duper photon torpedo

[Bharadwaj]

So further to the above, Snehesh Phillip makes it very clear that Pakis did not have a single air to air kill. So all utter sh** that was spoken by Reuters, CNN, etc etc praising the junk f*** 10CE and the PL-15 was precisely that - sh**. Pardon my French.

Shock & Awe: Inside story of India’s Op Sindoor that forced Pakistan to plead for ceasefire

As both India and Pakistan agree for cessation of hostilities, Deputy Editor Snehesh Alex Philip gets the inside details of the Operation Sindoor that forced Pakistan to desperately seek ceasefire. ThePrint is withholding a lot of information since the operation is still ongoing.

[A_Gupta]

Air Marshal G.S. Bedi (retd) did not rule out surface-to-air hits by Pakistan. He did rule out air-to-air.

[Bharadwaj]

Yes it would appear we might have paid a price for the element of surprise achieved through lack of sead/dead. Whatever the case the super duper "top" Chinese fighter did not get any kills. The rubbish that was peddled by Reuters and co was unbelievable. I wish someone with the substantial sm following can take this reporting from Snehesh Philip and run with it.

[SBajwa]

Air Marshal G.S. Bedi (retd) did not rule out surface-to-air hits by Pakistan. He did rule out air-to-air.

Alao

AM says that after initial strike Pakistani fighters did not dare to attack any fighters or land installation due to S-400 and range of their missiles.

Another point he made that Paki AVM Aurangazeb said that India attacked at 12:15 am and then we destroyed 5 Indian fighters at 2 A.M., laughing that IAF was simply sitting up there waiting for Pakis after firing the fire-and-forget air to surface missiles. When attacking land installations weapons are guided by NAVIC coordinates and all fighters have to do is fire the weapon and return to bases.

Also he says where are the radar plots of their planes? Why don't they show that the lock-on with speed, direction, height, etc?

[Zynda]

Apparently, India used Banshee supersonic target drones and probably modified its RCS to mimic different aircrafts like Su-30, MiG-29 etc., during the night of first strike. TSP's ADs probably targeted these drones and "counted" them as bringing down 5 IAF jets. As of now, there is no evidence of any IAF plane being brought down, although IAF did mention that "losses" are common during combat ops...which means that we could have had loses due to SAM kills (which AM GS Bedi alluded to, albeit without any concrete evidence). If we had loses, we can't bring the plane back...all our pilots are safe. We should just learn lessons from this and improve our EW capability...get MAWS installed on all aircraft, upgrade EW and improve training.

[Jay]

.get MAWS installed on all aircraft, upgrade EW and improve training.

It's disgusting that not all of our planes have MAWS installed and we sent these men and machines into combat without this.

[gakakkad]

Remember reusable drone loss is a loss as well

[gakakkad]

AFAIK all Indian planes have IRST. Which planes don't have maws ? I am not sure that's true

[Zynda]

AFAIK, except Rafale...no other aircrafts in IAF inventory has MAWS. Indigenous MAWS is in development for DRDO; probably in trials...Our induction process is PITA for developers/OEMs...lots of trails and ensuing delays (can have pages worth of discussion about this)...but when the product goes on to service, it is tested so well that it performs like expected (or beyond expectations) when yellow matter hits the fan.

[Hriday]

Apparently, India used Banshee supersonic target drones and probably modified its RCS to mimic different aircrafts like Su-30, MiG-29 etc., during the night of first strike. TSP's ADs probably targeted these drones and "counted" them as bringing down 5 IAF jets. As of now, there is no evidence of any IAF plane being brought down, ...
...

Many years ago even before drone warfare become popular somebody posted a picture of several drones of Pakistan stating that they will send it as decoys and expend our limited and expensive SAMs. In reply to this Karan M said that we had a variety of radars of different frequencies to assess the size and nature of the targets. I don't think this particular point is emphasized in the media or in the forum.

[vera_k]

AFAIK, except Rafale...no other aircrafts in IAF inventory has MAWS. Indigenous MAWS is in development for DRDO; probably in trials...Our induction process is PITA for developers/OEMs...lots of trails and ensuing delays (can have pages worth of discussion about this)...but when the product goes on to service, it is tested so well that it performs like expected (or beyond expectations) when yellow matter hits the fan.

Not sure if this info about MAWS in development is correct. BEL has a MAWS listed on its website.
MAWS

[williams]

AFAIK, except Rafale...no other aircrafts in IAF inventory has MAWS. Indigenous MAWS is in development for DRDO; probably in trials...Our induction process is PITA for developers/OEMs...lots of trails and ensuing delays (can have pages worth of discussion about this)...but when the product goes on to service, it is tested so well that it performs like expected (or beyond expectations) when yellow matter hits the fan.

Not sure if this info about MAWS in development is correct. BEL has a MAWS listed on its website.
MAWS

MKI upgrades started in Dec 2024. It is possible all ACs did not get upgraded.

[Jayram]

Something interesting
This is the original tweet from Damien Symon (who exposed Paki and Chinese photoshopping of hits on our airbases) on the hits of Nur Khan airbase
https://x.com/detresfa_/status/19215061 ... 38/photo/1
The interesting background to this in Vishnu and Shiv's channel not covered in the above tweet is here (posting the link directly to the convo of interest)
https://youtu.be/W5FYzO0RaFY?t=2120
This is a specific and pinpoint hit on possibly the drone C&C and possibly where the Turkeye operators were stationed and shows IAF dynamically assigning targets based on ELINT.
There is a lot more info to be coming out in the future. Cant wait.

[vera_k]

No way of knowing for sure, but the nature of the pinpoint hits taking out high value targets suggests a high degree of sensor intelligence assisted by AI. As in, some satellite somewhere observed xyz on the ground, and gets translated into targeting coordinates with a small amount of delay. The targeting of the hangar that had the AWACS inside suggests so. Was this the first AI controlled war, and if so I wonder what name has been picked for the AI model

[bala]

In Operation Sindoor the nuclear equation between India and Pak has changed dramatically. Certain things are permanently changed. India has shown to the world that such bluffs cannot be perpetuated forever.

The "Real" nuclear powers don't engage in direct conflict, they use proxies. With India and Pak there were skirmishes and Pak used terrorism to finger India. At most times India was hamstrung because of the nuclear card threatened by Pak land Army chiefs at the drop of the hat. Kargil on onwards this BS continued. For India, the threshold was moved after Uri, Pulwama/Balakot and now Pahalgam. India has crossed the IB and struck. With operation Sindoor Pak land interior sites were struck. Now India has upped the threshold, any terrorism committed by Pak land and that would be automatic war with Pak land. This is strange, no two nuclear armed countries indulge in this rhetoric let alone military devastation.

Pak land has publicly stated the following four nuclear thresholds:

1. Spatial - loss of territory
2. Military - destruction of key assets and air bases
3. Economic - threats to national economy
4. Political - internal destabilization

India has already breached 2, 3, 4. BLA has done 1. What is left from these thresholds. There could be only 1 answer: Pak land is nuke nude or has no control over the nuclear threat it espouses. It requires the consent of two others - US and China, which is not going to happen.

IMO: Israel needs to take out any remnant nuclear capability of Pak Land. There is a concerted effort by Pak land to threaten others with their nuke capability (if any) at least blackmail. Only the US and China are propping up their favorite whore nation. This should tell you in no uncertain terms that Pak land is effectively nuke nude and it took India (requires some guts) to call the bluff.

Nuclear antics of a nuclear beggar / Lt Gen P R Shankar

[williams]

Some hard geopolitical fact should tell us, Americans and the Chinese wanted the Pakis to have nukes to keep Bharat in check. But this old American outpost has become a Jihadi factory that went against American interest during 9/11 and in Afghanistan later. The Americans left Afghanistan to cut their losses.

The Chinese came in to fill in the void, but they realized their investment is not getting any returns and the Jihadi factory is hurting them the same way it had hurt others in the region. They wanted to cut their losses and didn't know how to do that. Their dud weapons needed a market and they thought perhaps Pakis will work out some baksheesh and loans from the west and the Arabs to buy their stuff (And hence cut some of their loses).

Given that the Americans have left, and whatever scrap of weapons they kept in Afghanistan got into the Taliban's hands. Taliban remembered how the Pakis back-stabbed them during the so called "war on terror" and they asked the Pakis to go to hell once they got Afghanistan. Now the Jihadi minded Paki Army lost all their initiative. They saw Modi Sarkar destroy their .5 friends in Kashmir by the removal of Article 370, going after terror finances, and the power of their proxies. The situation got even worse as their American and Arab Bakshees tap got shut down, and the Modi Sarkar is also adding cost with their proactive military strikes and fire assaults on the border. Pakis quickly asked for cease fire to get some relief.

Jihadi Munir and company were having sleepless nights since their old habits are being curtailed and their position in the Paki power corriders are being reduced in each passing day. Hence, they initiated the Pahalgam attack.

They did not expect the Modi Sarkar to respond this way. Nine Jihadi factories gone in a matter 20 minutes in front of the Paki Abduls. They need to teach Bharat a lesson, and thought they could hit something in Bharat by sending in 100s of drones and missiles. Bharat had a technically superior AD system to thwart that attack and responded by overtly striking their air bases. Bharat also attacked some of their crown jewels covertly. Jihadi munir now begged their civilian puppets to run to the Americans citing nuclear emergency. Americans smelling radiation leaks appealed to the SDREs, and the SDREs agreed that DGMOs should talk.

Now we need to see the reality. We have our future fighter programs in jeopardy because the greedy criminal traitors (sorry, I have to name them) did not fund the domestic Kaveri program and signed a deal with the same old Americans to do screwdriver giri. Americans who sensed this, and our stance with Russia, delayed supplying us the engine for two years.

Pakis are going to use this pause to figure out how to correct their systems. We don't know if that will succeed. The Chinese realized there is no point in keeping their single child population of armed boys in the cold by doing futile salami slicing exercises in the Himalayas. They asked for a thaw in the relationship with India, and India obliged. They now see that their hurriedly designed systems, which they advertised heavily through their propaganda machines, are not working as expected.

All the three enemies - Paki, Chinese and the Americans are going to come back and before that we need to a build a massive economy and MIC that can thwart their design. For that we will dance with the Americans, bide time with the Chinese and keep our powder dry with the Pakis. But don't expect Israel or some Alien power to take away Paki nukes. Bharat need to sort out the Paki problem on her own, while keeping the Chinese and Americans at bay. Bharat needs to do this without disrupting the current economic growth. That is the gist of the problem that the Modi Sarkar will work on in the coming days.

[vera_k]

Possible that the attack in Pahalgam was initiated exactly to result in this outcome.

Fighting India Helps Revive the Pakistani Military’s Popularity

[SRajesh]

What purpose does this serve ??
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-05-17
What information are we going to share??

[sanjayc]

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Interesting video -- Chinese living in Pakistan recount their experiences of fleeing the country when Indian bombing started. From the comments section: "Imagine escaping to Afghanistan for safety, times have changed."

Chinese Risky Escape from Pakistan, Tickets Soar to $20,000, CCP Brings Suffering to Its People

[A_Gupta]

What purpose does this serve ??
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-05-17
What information are we going to share??

I think this is a "we are telling you in a friendly and non-threatening way what your munna Pakistan did". I am not sure whether the significance of an Ambassador telling them something is different from a set of Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha members telling them.

[RCase]

What purpose does this serve ??
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-05-17
What information are we going to share??

Ashwamedh Yajna! Bharat has come of age... accept the reality!

[Roop]

... Although Def talks tends to sensationalise some of their reporting, this one featuring AM Bedi (retd) is a gem and one I would recommend.

The interview was a gem because of AM Bedi (retd). Aadi Achint was starting to get on my nerves with his pointless interruptions, unfunny "jokes" and talking over his guest. At many points in the program, I was just screaming at him to STFU and let the AM speak.

[A_Gupta]

When in doubt, ask AI
Bing CoPilot:

India's parliamentary outreach serves as a strategic diplomatic tool to project a unified national stance on key global issues, particularly in times of crisis. Unlike traditional diplomatic efforts led by government officials, parliamentary delegations bring together representatives from multiple political parties, reinforcing the idea that India's position transcends political divisions. This approach enhances credibility and broadens engagement, as foreign governments see a consensus-driven message rather than a single-party narrative.

A recent example is Operation Sindoor, where India dispatched seven all-party parliamentary delegations to key nations to convey its zero-tolerance stance on terrorism following the Pahalgam attack2. These delegations include Members of Parliament from various parties, former diplomats, and strategic experts, ensuring a diverse and authoritative representation.

How It Differs from Diplomatic Engagement

Broader Representation – Diplomats represent the government, whereas parliamentary delegations represent the entire political spectrum, making the outreach more inclusive.

Legislative Legitimacy – MPs carry the mandate of millions of voters, adding democratic weight to India's stance.

Public Diplomacy – Parliamentary outreach is often more transparent, engaging with foreign lawmakers, media, and civil society, whereas diplomats primarily interact with government officials.

Political Consensus – It obliges opposition parties to set aside differences and present a unified front, strengthening India's global credibility

I listened to a Council of Foreign Relations talk on youtube and promptly downvoted it. The talk was described as "What drives India-Pakistan tensions?" and I wanted to hear their take on why Asim Munir had the Pahalgam attack done.

Instead they took the tack that Pahalgam was a background incident, India started hostilities and Pakistan "felt compelled to respond". The motivation they said, was in part, PM Modi wanting to burnish his image as a strong leader. I wrote a strong comment, including:

Do your "experts" understand the depth and intensity of anger in India over the Pahalgam attack? I'd say any Indian leader, no matter how pacific, would have been literally tarred-and-feathered out of office if they didn't hit Pakistan. Your "experts" talk about Modi wanting to burnish his image as a strong leader. That public opinion might have forced him or whomever led India to act doesn't penetrate their thick skulls. I guess they are now used to the US being a sham democracy, with Trump as the undeclared king.

You should take a look at how much Indian anger was directed at the hapless Indian Foreign Affairs spokesperson who merely announced that the two countries' Director Generals of Military Operations had agreed to a cessation of fighting.

I think the multi-party Parliamentary delegations will help nullify the stories of all such "experts".

[vera_k]

One of the noteworthy things this time is that India did not go to the UN. Pak went to the UNSC to try and head off action from India, but India did not plead its case justifying why it wants to respond.

[Amber G.]

What purpose does this serve ??
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/o ... 2025-05-17
What information are we going to share??

I think this is a "we are telling you in a friendly and non-threatening way what your munna Pakistan did". I am not sure whether the significance of an Ambassador telling them something is different from a set of Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha members telling them.

Also Meanwhile In a copy cat move, Pakistan to send a political delegation to London, Washington, Paris & Brussels. Led by Bilawal Zardari, it includes Dr. Musadiq Malik, Engineer Khurram Dastagir, Senator Sherry Rehman, Hina Rabbani Khar, Faisal Sabzwari, Tehmina Janjua & Jalil Abbas Jilani..

BTW This is a

Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari Calls India 'Coward' for Midnight Attack

[Deans]

One of the noteworthy things this time is that India did not go to the UN. Pak went to the UNSC to try and head off action from India, but India did not plead its case justifying why it wants to respond.

Yes, a lot of people who whine about `failure of our foreign policy' do not realise this. We did not go to the UN, nor did we do Dossierbazi.
The countries that matter to us accepted that it was a terror attack from Pak. They accepted that we need to strike back.
No one complained about IWT, bombing a mosque etc

[Deans]

... Although Def talks tends to sensationalise some of their reporting, this one featuring AM Bedi (retd) is a gem and one I would recommend.

The interview was a gem because of AM Bedi (retd). Aadi Achint was starting to get on my nerves with his pointless interruptions, unfunny "jokes" and talking over his guest. At many points in the program, I was just screaming at him to STFU and let the AM speak.

Aadi got on my nerves during a separate interaction and I think my comments on his earlier YT were deleted. He's hardly a defense reporter,
but the saving grace was AM Bedi (retd) who explained things in a more logical and easy to understand for an amateur way than Tom Cooper.

[SBajwa]

The interview was a gem because of AM Bedi (retd). Aadi Achint was starting to get on my nerves with his pointless interruptions, unfunny "jokes" and talking over his guest. At many points in the program, I was just screaming at him to STFU and let the AM speak.

Aadi got on my nerves during a separate interaction and I think my comments on his earlier YT were deleted. He's hardly a defense reporter,
but the saving grace was AM Bedi (retd) who explained things in a more logical and easy to understand for an amateur way than Tom Cooper.

100% AM Bedi (retd) needs to be regular on news channels and social media.

[Cyrano]

,^^^ Spot on williams ji!

[Hriday]

See the video and photos in the link below. Looks like a missile fired by us missed target and striked an empty land. A part of a wall was destroyed and a large crater in the empty ground visible in the video. As per comments it is likely a Rampage missile because Brahmos will create much larger crater. The missile was diverted by GPS jammers ?

https://x.com/VigorousFalcon/status/192 ... 4aBrw&s=19

[drnayar]

Turkey seems to be replacing porkis in demanding intervention in Kashmir..

time to boycott Turkey big time.. we should be using their old name.. that suits them best

[putnanja]

China extended satellite support to Pakistan, says research group under Indian Defence Ministry

China helped Pakistan reorganise its radar and air defence systems to more effectively detect country’s deployments of troops and weaponry, Ashok Kumar, director general at the New Delhi-based Centre For Joint Warfare Studies, said in an interview.

“China also helped Pakistan adjust its satellite coverage over India during the 15-day interval between an April 22 massacre that killed 26 mostly Indian tourists and the start of hostilities between the two nations,” he said.

“It helped them to redeploy their air defence radar so that any actions which we do from the aerial route is known to them,” Kumar said at the group’s headquarters in New Delhi.

Indian Government hasn’t publicly detailed China’s involvement in the conflict. While Pakistan has said it used Chinese-supplied weapons, Kumar’s assessment — if correct — indicates that China’s involvement went even further, offering logistical and intelligence support to Islamabad.
...
...
Kumar said that India’s planning for conflicts with Pakistan now accounts for the probability that China will provide assistance to Islamabad. China may not intervene on behalf of Pakistan unless the situation is “critical,” but Pakistan will enter a conflict between India and China, Kumar said.

‘Two-Front Situation’
“India now factors in a two-front situation in almost all its calculations,” Kumar said. “Anything which is with China today can be deemed to be with Pakistan tomorrow.”
...

[rajsunder]

I read on twitter/X that after day 2 of the conflict, pak was flying drones at an altitude that was out of reach of L70 guns.
Forcing India would use missiles to bring down drones, thus decreasing the inventory of missiles.

So to prepare for the next conflict/war should we be building bigger guns? L70 I believe, uses 40 mm shells. We might need 60 mm, 80 mm, and 100 MM guns supporting the L70 guns.