Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by LakshmanPST »

I have a feeling that China will do some misadventure...
I feel they won't escalate but will create a stand-off situation...
-
Reason why I'm saying this is becoz. Chinese weapon systems were dominated by Indian Armed forces...
So, they will create a stand-off situation and will parallelly push this narrative on social media---> "If Chinese weapon systems failed so miserably, why would Chinese try to start a war...? It only means Chinese knew Indian Armed forces failed and want to take advantage"...

This way, they'll try to bring back sone lost H&D of Chinese weapons...
--‐-
Just a gut feeling...
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

You are letting your fear do the thinking.
The PL-15s were jammed and some shot down.
They are not a threat. This is worse than Galwan where they claimed they used only spiked clubs!
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Hriday wrote: 22 May 2025 20:13
Deans wrote: 22 May 2025 07:25 My blog on op Sindhoor. I have left the technical analysis to professionals like AM Bedi (taken his permission). It's largely intended for a less
informed audience than BRF and to get our point of view abroad.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/05/op ... alise.html
Deans ji, as per you Kirana hills nuclear weapons storage site were not hit. But there is a strong evidence of a strike there. At least there exists a video of the vertical contrails of a missile and an explosion which was geo located at the site. Further proofs by Jaidev Jamval given below,
https://x.com/JaidevJamwal/status/19254 ... zhbTg&s=19
Here is satellite imagery showing marks of a munitions hit on Pakistani nuclear storage facility in Kirana Hills.

The facility has storage site for conventional munitions as well as nuclear weapons. This section, which is constructed under the rocky hill, most likely serves

1/
Conclusions:
-Kirana Hills was hit twice.
-Target was very likely Paki nuclear facility
-Purpose, unknown.
-Damage. Unknown, but along with other hits, good enough to break paki military's morale.
-Any nuclear explosions happened, no.
-Radiation leak, rather limited if any.

7/
I had written this only half in jest. Many thanks to those who offered help. I accepted the offer of one person who wishes only to be known as a patriotic citizen of India. This satellite image helped confirm my theory with concrete proof.
Thanks again.

x.com/JaidevJamwal/s…

8/8
Deans and Hriday, Per an agreement India and Pakistan exchange a list of nuclear facilities every December.
Those are the recognized nuclear facilities.
India attacked Kirana Hills which is not a recognized nuclear facility.

What was stored there is not Indian problem.

This is the only way to square this circle.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Also I think it was a SPICE 2K hit as it needed precision and firepower.
bala
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2941
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by bala »

LakshmanPST wrote: 23 May 2025 06:42 I have a feeling that China will do some misadventure.
Ah, yes, bring it on China. India's AD is mighty strong and proven in actual battle. I think if China tries anything in Tibet, India will take out Lhasa and Tibet will fall in double quick time. You Need validation on this outcome, see this ( YT by Lt. Gen P R Shankar v=HZckLsIFP_c ). This skirmish/war will solve a huge number of problems - rivers, shaksgam valley, CPEC etc. China is pretty vulnerable in Tibet, they cannot take of with fully loaded weapons in their aircrafts. Moreover there are a few key chinese roads hugging the himalayas, the one going through Aksai Chin is within sighting range of the IA. A few pinakas and brahmos will be katam on China's mobility by road. The Air will be AD defended and any missiles lobbed by them will be taken down effectively.
LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by LakshmanPST »

What I'm saying is, they won't really try to escalate... Just come and sit at the border for few months, but create a narrative that they're not afraid of Indian equipment...
Hriday
BRFite
Posts: 487
Joined: 15 Jun 2022 19:59

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Hriday »

ramana wrote: 23 May 2025 07:51
Deans and Hriday, Per an agreement India and Pakistan exchange a list of nuclear facilities every December.
Those are the recognized nuclear facilities.
India attacked Kirana Hills which is not a recognized nuclear facility.

What was stored there is not Indian problem.

This is the only way to square this circle.
Ramana ji, thanks for the information. But Air Marshal A K Bharti said in the press meet that we didn't hit Kirana hills. That is the government's statement. How to reconcile with this? Is there a precedence that India govt under BJP denied the truth? Generally one think that like what Israel is doing we can neither deny or confirm about sensitive operations. Or even a 'No comments' or a vague explanation.
vonkabra
BRFite
Posts: 107
Joined: 09 Oct 2003 11:31

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vonkabra »

Rakesh wrote: 22 May 2025 23:20 Calibrated Force: Operation Sindoor and the Future of Indian Deterrence
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-resear ... deterrence
21 May 2025

Dr Walter Ladwig
It's a good analysis. Best part is, our media is calling this a Russian report :rotfl:
Jay
BRFite
Posts: 913
Joined: 24 Feb 2005 18:24
Location: Gods Country
Contact:

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Jay »

ramana wrote: 23 May 2025 07:52 Also I think it was a SPICE 2K hit as it needed precision and firepower.
Ramana ji, there is a video which shows contrails clearly indicating it's a propulsion based munition, which spice is not. If I remember correctly, there was an update to bramhos(Block iii) to make it attack hill side locations with an S maneuver, and army tested it as well. This was well covered here on BR's missile pages. Also, Spice can only glide less than 80 km's and that too in only ideal conditions. Kirana hills are more than 100 km's from the nearest border and we have not crossed the paki airspace.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

To me what is fascinating is IAF got into the OODA loop and paralyzed the Pakistanis. Just 15 Brahmos-A.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Jay, You have a point. Let's wait for more disclosure.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Hriday, I thought he said thanks for telling us it's a storage facility.
Hriday
BRFite
Posts: 487
Joined: 15 Jun 2022 19:59

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Hriday »

ramana wrote: 23 May 2025 11:12 Hriday, I thought he said thanks for telling us it's a storage facility.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/operati ... rs-8396035
"We have not hit Kirana hills, whatever is there," Director General of Air Operations Air Marshal AK Bharti said at a media briefing on Operation Sindoor.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4413
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vera_k »

ramana wrote: 23 May 2025 11:10 To me what is fascinating is IAF got into the OODA loop and paralyzed the Pakistanis. Just 15 Brahmos A
Yes. Bholari hangar shows some advanced capability. Assuming they didn't get lucky, since why waste a missile on just that hangar out of all of the hangars out there. Points to the equivalent of big brother tied to a launch platform.
RCase
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2591
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 22:50
Location: Awaiting the sabbath of Fry djinns

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by RCase »

One of the theories peddled by Tom Cooper is that the PL-15s were fired from Pak airspace and surprised the IAF aircrafts inside Indian airspace. According to him, the IAF underestimated the range of the PL-15 as it was fired from a JF-17 and directed by their AWAC and hence took a hit. I find that theory a bit far fetched. It just sounds really stupid that the IAF was attacking and would not have expected any missiles being fired by enemy aircraft that will cross the border.

Q. Wouldn't the AD system have picked up an incoming PL-15 and intercepted it?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ramana »

Interesting you mention Bholari airbase strike.
Tom Cooper analyzed Operation Sindoor on Barkha Dutt channel Mojo.

Link; https://youtu.be/AbGMEM34sro?si=pjyeHOknNWGQU4sr
RCase
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2591
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 22:50
Location: Awaiting the sabbath of Fry djinns

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by RCase »

Hriday wrote: 23 May 2025 11:41
ramana wrote: 23 May 2025 11:12 Hriday, I thought he said thanks for telling us it's a storage facility.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/operati ... rs-8396035
"We have not hit Kirana hills, whatever is there," Director General of Air Operations Air Marshal AK Bharti said at a media briefing on Operation Sindoor.
We hit the entrance and exit doors onlee. :D No penetration of Kirana hills. Paki sovirginity was sealed!
Bharadwaj
BRFite
Posts: 507
Joined: 09 Oct 2006 11:09

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Bharadwaj »

RCase wrote: 23 May 2025 11:45 One of the theories peddled by Tom Cooper is that the PL-15s were fired from Pak airspace and surprised the IAF aircrafts inside Indian airspace. According to him, the IAF underestimated the range of the PL-15 as it was fired from a JF-17 and directed by their AWAC and hence took a hit. I find that theory a bit far fetched. It just sounds really stupid that the IAF was attacking and would not have expected any missiles being fired by enemy aircraft that will cross the border.

Q. Wouldn't the AD system have picked up an incoming PL-15 and intercepted it?
Snehesh Phillip of the Print was absolutely clear quoting sources in the IAF- There was NO a2a kill. The pl-15e was a dud. The YouTube link is in one of the previous pages. Just wait for the IAF briefing and all indications are that we did all the a2a killing.
drnayar
BRFite
Posts: 1843
Joined: 29 Jan 2023 18:38

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by drnayar »

RCase wrote: 23 May 2025 11:45 One of the theories peddled by Tom Cooper is that the PL-15s were fired from Pak airspace and surprised the IAF aircrafts inside Indian airspace. According to him, the IAF underestimated the range of the PL-15 as it was fired from a JF-17 and directed by their AWAC and hence took a hit. I find that theory a bit far fetched. It just sounds really stupid that the IAF was attacking and would not have expected any missiles being fired by enemy aircraft that will cross the border.

Q. Wouldn't the AD system have picked up an incoming PL-15 and intercepted it?

It is possible that the pakis used their pl15s on virtual Indian fighters simulated by the decoys..one of their channels mentioned the "largest aerial combat' .. only difference there was no real Indian fighters!

They used the pl 15s at maximum range against the ghost Indians. Why does the s400 need to engage ? ..it would have tracked it for sure.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25358
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by SSridhar »

Jay wrote: 23 May 2025 11:06 If I remember correctly, there was an update to bramhos(Block iii) to make it attack hill side locations with an S maneuver, and army tested it as well.
Yes, that's correct. By 2018 timeframe, the mountain warfare steep-dive top-attack BrahMos Block III had been successfully tested even by the Army.
Khalsa
BRFite
Posts: 1814
Joined: 12 Nov 2000 12:31
Location: NZL

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Khalsa »

Apologies but if posted already, the article just completely resonated with me on my take on the Day 1 strikes and why IAF did not escalate.
Ready On

Is China the winner in the India-Pakistan conflict?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1w3dln352vo
20 May 2025

The four-day conflict between arch-rivals India and Pakistan this month ended with a ceasefire and both claiming victory – but it now appears that China's defence industry might also be an unlikely winner.The latest flare-up began on 7 May when India launched attacks on what it called "terrorist infrastructure" inside Pakistan in response to the brutal killing of 26 people, mostly tourists by militants in Pahalgam on 22 April. Many of them were killed in the scenic valley in Indian-administered Kashmir in front of their wives and family members. Delhi accused Islamabad of supporting militant groups involved in the carnage, a charge Pakistan denied.

RESPONSE
After India's response - which it called Operation Sindoor - to the militant attack, tit-for-tat military manoeuvres from both sides followed, involving drones, missiles and fighter jets. India reportedly used its French and Russian-made jets, while Pakistan deployed its J-10 and J-17 aircraft, which Islamabad co-produces with Beijing. Both sides say their jets did not cross the border and they were firing missiles at each other from a distance.

Islamabad claims that its fighter aircraft shot down at least six Indian planes, including the newly-acquired French-made Rafale fighter jets. Delhi hasn't responded to these claims. "Losses are a part of combat," Air Marshal AK Bharti of the Indian Air Force (IAF) said last week when a reporter asked him about these claims. Air Marshal Bharti declined to comment on the specific claim of Pakistan downing Indian jets.

"We have achieved the objectives that we selected, and all our pilots are back home," he added.

India said it had killed at least "100 terrorists" while targeting the headquarters of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed militant outfits based in Pakistan.

A definitive account of what really happened in the aerial battle is yet to emerge. Some media outlets reported plane crashes in the state of Punjab and Indian-administered Kashmir around the same time but the Indian government has not responded to the reports.

A Reuters report quoting American officials said Pakistan possibly had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets. Pakistan claiming victory after hugely relying on Chinese weapons systems in an active combat situation is being seen by some experts as a boost for Beijing's defence industry but some also disagree with the claim. Some of the experts have called this a "DeepSeek moment" for the Chinese weapons industry, referring to January this year when the Chinese AI start-up shook US giants with its cost-effective technology.

"The aerial fight was a big advertisement for the Chinese weapons industry. Until now, China had no opportunity to test its platforms in a combat situation," Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People's Liberation Army, told the BBC.

The Beijing-based analyst said the outcome of the air duel showed "China has some systems that are next to none". Shares in the Chinese Avic Chengdu Aircraft company, that manufactures fighter jets like the J-10, surged by up to 40% last week after the reported performance of the fighter jet in the India-Pakistan conflict.

Other experts, however, feel it's too early to declare the superiority of Chinese weapons systems.

Professor Walter Ladwig from the King's College in London said it was yet to be determined whether the Chinese jets had actually outmanoeuvred the Indian Air Force (IAF) planes, particularly the Rafale. "In a standard military doctrine, you would suppress the enemy's air defences and get air superiority before you struck ground targets. Instead, it appears the IAF's mission was clearly not to provoke any Pakistani military retaliation," he said.

Mr Ladwig thought that the Indian pilots were given instructions to fly despite the fact that the entire Pakistani air defence was on high alert and their jets were already in the sky. The IAF hasn't given details of the mission or about its air operations strategy.


Beijing also hasn't made any comment on reports of the J-10 taking down Indian fighter jets, including the Rafale. But unconfirmed reports of the J-10 bringing down a Western weapon system has triggered jubilation and triumphalism on Chinese social media.

Carlotta Rinaudo, a China researcher at the International Team for the Study of Security in Verona, said Chinese social media was flooded with nationalistic messages even though it's difficult to reach a conclusion with the available information.

"At the moment perception matters way more than reality. If we see it in that way, the main winner is really China," she said.

For China, Pakistan is a strategic and economic ally. It is investing more than $50bn (£37bn) to build infrastructure in Pakistan as part of its China-Pakistan Economic corridor.

So, a weak Pakistan is not in China's interest.

China made a critical difference in the latest India-Pakistan conflict, says Imtiaz Gul, a Pakistani security analyst. "It took the Indian planners by sheer surprise. They didn't probably envision the depth of co-operation in the modern warfare between Pakistan and China," he said.

Experts say the performance of the Chinese jets in a real combat situation was keenly analysed in Western capitals as this will have cascading impact on global arms trade. The US is the world's largest arms exporter, while China is the fourth. China sells weapons mostly to developing countries like Myanmar and Pakistan. Previously the Chinese weapon systems were criticised for their poor quality and technical problems. Reports said the Burmese military grounded several of its JF-17 fighter jets – jointly manufactured by China and Pakistan in 2022 – due to technical malfunctions. The Nigerian military reported several technical problems with the Chinese made F-7 fighter jets.

Another point to be noted is that this was not the first time that India lost an aircraft to Pakistan.

In 2019, during a brief air battle between the two sides following similar Indian air strikes on suspected terrorist targets in Pakistan, a Russian-made MiG-21 jet was shot down inside Pakistani territory and the pilot was captured. He was released a few days later. India, however, said that the pilot had ejected after successfully shooting down Pakistani fighter jets, including a US-made F-16. Pakistan has denied the claim.

Despite reports of the downing of Indian jets last week, experts like Mr Ladwig argue that India was able to hit an "impressive breadth of targets" inside Pakistan early in the morning of 10 May and this fact has gone largely unnoticed by the international media. The Indian military said in a co-ordinated attack, it launched missiles on 11 Pakistani air bases across the country, including the strategic Nur Khan air base outside Rawalpindi, not far from the Pakistani military headquarters. It's a sensitive target that took Islamabad by surprise.

One of the furthest targets was in Bholari, 140km (86 miles) from the southern city of Karachi.


Mr Ladwig says this time the IAF operated with standard procedures - first attacking Pakistani air defence and radar systems and then focusing on ground targets.

The Indian jets used an array of missiles, loitering munitions and drones despite the Pakistanis operating the Chinese-provided HQ 9 air defence system.

"It seems the attacks were relatively precise and targeted. The craters were in the middle of runways, exactly the ideal spot. If it were a longer conflict, how long would it take the Pakistani Air Force to get these facilities up and running again, I can't say," Mr Ladwig pointed out.

Nevertheless, he said, by refusing to get into the details of the mission briefing, India's military "lost control of the narrative thread".


In response to the Indian strikes, Pakistan said it launched missile and air strikes on several Indian forward air bases, but Delhi said the attacks caused no damage to equipment and personnel. Realising that the situation was getting out of control, the US and its allies intervened and put pressure on both countries to stop the fighting.But for India, experts say, the whole episode is a wake-up call.Beijing may not comment on the details of the recent India-Pakistan conflict, but it's keen to show that its weapon systems are fast catching up with the West.

Delhi is aware that the jets China has supplied to Pakistan are some of the earlier models. Beijing has already inducted the more advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets, that can evade radars. India and China have a long-standing border dispute along the Himalayas and fought a brief border war in 1962 that resulted in a defeat for India. A brief border clash took place in Ladakh in June 2020.

Experts say India is acutely aware that it needs to accelerate investments in its homegrown defence manufacturing industry and speed up international buying. For now, China's defence industry seems to be enjoying the limelight following the claims of success of one of its aircraft in the India-Pakistan conflict.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13230
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by A_Gupta »

Karan Thapar: "Just to make it absolutely crystal clear for the audience listening to you, just as you believe India lied in 2019 about shooting down a Pakistani F-16, you believe Air Marshal Bharti has spoken an untruth when he claims an unspecified number of Pakistani planes were shot down; he claims he knows how many but he will not reveal it.

C.Christine Fair: Both are untruths, correct, and I would say that to his face he is being untruthful.

From the transcript of https://www.youtube.com/live/kbwKCe2wd7 ... 4CuyVZeOjT
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6586
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Manish_P »

Didn't this mohtarma get a stinging slap by A. Goswami yesterday...
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20967
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Rakesh »

bala wrote: 23 May 2025 09:52
LakshmanPST wrote: 23 May 2025 06:42 I have a feeling that China will do some misadventure.
Ah, yes, bring it on China. India's AD is mighty strong and proven in actual battle. I think if China tries anything in Tibet, India will take out Lhasa and Tibet will fall in double quick time. You Need validation on this outcome, see this ( YT by Lt. Gen P R Shankar v=HZckLsIFP_c ). This skirmish/war will solve a huge number of problems - rivers, shaksgam valley, CPEC etc. China is pretty vulnerable in Tibet, they cannot take of with fully loaded weapons in their aircrafts. Moreover there are a few key chinese roads hugging the himalayas, the one going through Aksai Chin is within sighting range of the IA. A few pinakas and brahmos will be katam on China's mobility by road. The Air will be AD defended and any missiles lobbed by them will be taken down effectively.
@LakshmanPST: The Chinese will not be compelled to do any misadventure, when Pakistan is around. In the near future, China is expected to be delivering to Pakistan, the J-35 (a fifth gen, twin engine) stealth fighter along with the PL-17 BVRAAM. This missile has a "claimed" range of 400 km and has fins that can fold, so that the missile can fit inside the internal weapon bays of the J-35. The Chinese are sending their latest & greatest maal to the PAF, to test in real world combat situations. The lessons learnt in these conflicts (i.e. Op Sindoor) will be used to improve the platforms the Chinese have. The end goal for the ChiComs is the eventual take over of Taiwan, in which the Chinese are looking for a clear military edge.

@bala: Let us not get over confident or get ahead of ourselves. The Chinese are a different beast altogether. Pakistan looks at conflict through a religious lens, which clouds their judgement. The Chinese look at conflict through a realistic lens and games 10 steps ahead of everyone else. There is a lot that needs to be done vis-à-vis China and we are not prioritizing what is important.
SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5873
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by SBajwa »

According to Paki Air force dude Jehangir., they got 42 aircrafts within 2 minutes airborne as soon as they detected IAF. :rotfl:
Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4261
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Rudradev »

Rakesh wrote: 23 May 2025 18:19 @bala: Let us not get over confident or get ahead of ourselves. The Chinese are a different beast altogether. Pakistan looks at conflict through a religious lens, which clouds their judgement. The Chinese look at conflict through a realistic lens and games 10 steps ahead of everyone else. There is a lot that needs to be done vis-à-vis China and we are not prioritizing what is important.
One thing to keep in mind-- while we discovered the poor quality of Chinese systems during Op Sindoor, quantity is its own quality. Unlike Pakistan, China is not a beggar with zero meaningful industrial capacity. It can overwhelm us by deploying those same systems in far, far bigger numbers. Imagine not hundreds, but thousands or tens of thousands of drones per swarm. Same for BMs, CMs, glide bombs, aircraft, what have you. And the more we bring down the more they send... indefinitely.

At some point any system has its limits and India's AD, which did an excellent job against Pakistan, is no exception. Chinese ordinance will get through, and even if only 1% gets through, 1% of several thousands is an appreciable number. We will lose assets, including civilian settlements, commercial/industrial establishments and infrastructure in addition to military installations.

Meanwhile, and very importantly-- hitting Lahore or Isloo or even Peshawar may be a piece of cake for us. What threat can we pose against the Chinese heartland in retaliation for targeting Delhi, Lucknow, Gauhati? I'm not saying we can't-- but it's a whole different ball game than with Pakistan.

Bottom line: China has quantity, and China has economic staying power, both of which Pakistan never had. A war that drags on for months, and in which Indian cities, towns, highways etc. are visibly degraded (in the eyes of Indian citizens) while reciprocal damage against China (even if it happens) is never seen-- imagine what our oppositions parties will do with that as a resource for political messaging.

We have to think very hard on the ways we can make China hurt worse than it can hurt us. Unlike with Pakistan, time and size are not on our side against that enemy. Again, I'm not trying to be defeatist or say it can't be done, just pointing out the need for realism.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2910
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Deans »

Hriday wrote: 22 May 2025 20:13
Deans wrote: 22 May 2025 07:25 My blog on op Sindhoor. I have left the technical analysis to professionals like AM Bedi (taken his permission). It's largely intended for a less
informed audience than BRF and to get our point of view abroad.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/05/op ... alise.html
Deans ji, as per you Kirana hills nuclear weapons storage site were not hit. But there is a strong evidence of a strike there. At least there exists a video of the vertical contrails of a missile and an explosion which was geo located at the site. Further proofs by Jaidev Jamval given below,
https://x.com/JaidevJamwal/status/19254 ... zhbTg&s=19
Here is satellite imagery showing marks of a munitions hit on Pakistani nuclear storage facility in Kirana Hills.

8/8
I wasn't saying it wasn't hit. It may well have been. My point was we have not destroyed Pak nuclear capability, as some were speculating.
I was addressing uninformed speculation, that Pak is `nuke nude', there is radiation leaks, US is spraying boron etc.
That part, in my opinion was not true.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2910
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Deans »

Rudradev wrote: 23 May 2025 21:19
One thing to keep in mind-- while we discovered the poor quality of Chinese systems during Op Sindoor, quantity is its own quality. Unlike Pakistan, China is not a beggar with zero meaningful industrial capacity. It can overwhelm us by deploying those same systems in far, far bigger numbers. Imagine not hundreds, but thousands or tens of thousands of drones per swarm. Same for BMs, CMs, glide bombs, aircraft, what have you. And the more we bring down the more they send... indefinitely.
Russia and Ukraine fire about 7-8000 drones a day at each other. That is 20 times more than what we intercepted.
Each side increased their drones volume 10X in the past year.
We have to not only increase completely Indian made drones, but increase capacity exponentially, train literally lacs of people (ex Agniveers)
as a reserve drone force and work on counter measures with the same urgency.

The danger from China that I see is if they use Pak, like NATO is using Ukraine - to bleed Russia. They will do that only if we are a bigger priority
than Taiwan, the South China sea and disputed Japanese islands, all of which will involve war with the US.
Pak, on its own cannot match our economic might.
Kanoji
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 89
Joined: 03 Mar 2022 20:54

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Kanoji »

Manish_P wrote: 23 May 2025 18:17 Didn't this mohtarma get a stinging slap by A. Goswami yesterday...
Yes, posting the link for the benefit of members https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIuWiBi9PBo
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13230
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by A_Gupta »

AI has a different opinion: "The largest drone attack Russia has launched against Ukraine involved 273 Shahed drones. This record-breaking attack occurred on Sunday, May 18, 2025, and primarily targeted the central Kyiv region"

Ukraine on Russia, AI does not tell :) instead this type of information:
"May 22, 2025: Ukraine launched another large-scale drone attack on Russia.
Scale: Russian authorities claimed to have shot down 485 drones in this attack, with 63 of them over the Moscow region."

Not that I trust AI. Just an amusing aside.
krithivas
BRFite
Posts: 779
Joined: 20 Oct 2002 11:31
Location: Offline

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by krithivas »

To whom-so-ever it may concern: India(ns) must jettison "satyavaan-syndrome".

Personal credibility is not a national asset. The world is about quick hit jobs and moving on. Cases in point, "IAF aircrafts may have been hit, but we did not touch their nuclear assets". Yet your personal credibility did not stop BBC from still claiming "China won" though the reality of their weapons failed Indian punishment never finds mention. Honest assessments are only for silent background remedial actions, but externally our words and writings must pack poison-venom-deceit.
milindc
BRFite
Posts: 761
Joined: 11 Feb 2006 00:03

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by milindc »

Mod Note: Please edit your post to learn how to post YouTube videos. I have edited your post. Please DO NOT post just the video and a title. Please provide a description of the video (either from the video itself or even in your own words). It helps readers and/or posters who are following the thread. Thank You for your co-operation in this matter.

Infocus With Ejaz Haider EP66: Defining Deterrence Between India-Pakistan

Please listen to this .. especially Prof Hagerty and enjoy Ejaz Haider's face :D

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34773
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by chetak »

A_Gupta wrote: 23 May 2025 17:56 Karan Thapar: "Just to make it absolutely crystal clear for the audience listening to you, just as you believe India lied in 2019 about shooting down a Pakistani F-16, you believe Air Marshal Bharti has spoken an untruth when he claims an unspecified number of Pakistani planes were shot down; he claims he knows how many but he will not reveal it.

C.Christine Fair: Both are untruths, correct, and I would say that to his face he is being untruthful.


From the transcript of https://www.youtube.com/live/kbwKCe2wd7 ... 4CuyVZeOjT
Gupta ji,

Ops Sindoor has only been paused.

Why would anyone be so foolish enough to "tell the truth" in the middle of an active kinetic war.

why is the opposition and the soreass funded traitors so insistent on proving that some Indian plane(s) got shot down

Are these traitors asking the pakis to "tell the truth" :mrgreen: or are they asking on behalf of the pakis and the cheen just to denigrate Modi ji and the Indian armed forces

There is no question about the AM "lying", or otherwise.

when did the scum, (the thappad's father) have the moral courage to even tell neverwho that India was unprepared for war and she was fighting a war that she neither anticipated, or nor wanted. And yet the unfortunate soldiers went to their deaths with no complaint

The IA fought at high altitudes shod in canvas shoes and summer clothing because our fearless leader was an closet communist and also a gutless pacifist. He was OK with poking anything that moved, but didn't bother to take care of his soldiers.

Did this come under "tell the truth", or did he man up to "tell the truth" to uncle mount the batten about who he was mounting while using his baton
Last edited by chetak on 23 May 2025 22:26, edited 1 time in total.
vaibhavs
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 15
Joined: 08 Sep 2017 03:52

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by vaibhavs »

milindc wrote: 23 May 2025 22:06 Please listen to this .. especially Prof Hagerty and enjoy Ejaz Haider's face :D
Man I absolutely hate this m*fing piece of shit punjoo muslim trash (sorry if I offended anyone) Ejaz Haider. This establishment dirtbag slithers out of his hole especially after Indian does a military operation on pakland and somehow in his faux analytical manner tries to disprove Indian claims.
Would it be possible to have a TL:DW before I subject myself to hearing his voice again.
Last edited by Rakesh on 24 May 2025 02:29, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please do not requote videos when posting. Many users visit BRF on mobile phone.
ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 555
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by ritesh »

Rudradev wrote: 23 May 2025 21:19
Rakesh wrote: 23 May 2025 18:19

@bala: Let us not get over confident or get ahead of ourselves. The Chinese are a different beast altogether. Pakistan looks at conflict through a religious lens, which clouds their judgement. The Chinese look at conflict through a realistic lens and games 10 steps ahead of everyone else. There is a lot that needs to be done vis-à-vis China and we are not prioritizing what is important.
At some point any system has its limits and India's AD, which did an excellent job against Pakistan, is no exception. Chinese ordinance will get through, and even if only 1% gets through, 1% of several thousands is an appreciable number. We will lose assets, including civilian settlements, commercial/industrial establishments and infrastructure in addition to military installations.
Same tactics of waves after waves was used by them in '62 war and could very well be used again by multiple waves of swarm attacks.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13230
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by A_Gupta »

krithivas wrote: 23 May 2025 21:59 To whom-so-ever it may concern: India(ns) must jettison "satyavaan-syndrome".

Personal credibility is not a national asset. The world is about quick hit jobs and moving on. Cases in point, "IAF aircrafts may have been hit, but we did not touch their nuclear assets". Yet your personal credibility did not stop BBC from still claiming "China won" though the reality of their weapons failed Indian punishment never finds mention. Honest assessments are only for silent background remedial actions, but externally our words and writings must pack poison-venom-deceit.
To whom-so-ever it may concern: if you must use poison-venom-deceit, at least make it sophisticated enough that it cannot be easily debunked.
"Munir is overthrown", "coup in Bangladesh", "Karachi is on fire" doesn't help anyone.

Further in a "we said, they said" kind of situation, India gets into the "hyphenated-with-Pakistan" situation, which it does not want.

Personal credibility is a national asset if you speak for the nation.

"China won" is purely because India officially does not contradict strongly the "1+ Rafales were shot down". Therefore the assumption is that a Chinese missile from a Chinese jet did the job.

etc. Anyhow, this is pointless because the behavior of Indian leadership, India media, Indian social media warriors is not going to change. Also the Indian-origin employees of BBC, CNN, etc., bend over backwards to try to show they are professionally neutral and objective; while Pakistani-origin employees of the same have no such compunction. This also is not going to change.
Sumeet
BRFite
Posts: 1763
Joined: 22 May 2002 11:31

Re: Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

Post by Sumeet »

A_Gupta wrote: 23 May 2025 17:56 Karan Thapar: "Just to make it absolutely crystal clear for the audience listening to you, just as you believe India lied in 2019 about shooting down a Pakistani F-16, you believe Air Marshal Bharti has spoken an untruth when he claims an unspecified number of Pakistani planes were shot down; he claims he knows how many but he will not reveal it.

C.Christine Fair: Both are untruths, correct, and I would say that to his face he is being untruthful.

From the transcript of https://www.youtube.com/live/kbwKCe2wd7 ... 4CuyVZeOjT
C Fair is an American political scientist. She is not a military and warfare analyst unlike -- Tom Cooper, Walter Ludwig from RUSI, John Spencer and few others.

She cannot comprehend what AM Bharti said when he mentioned "objectives were met". People like Tom etc would actually understand that and have explicitly mentioned that with evidence and analysis back it. K Thapar is looking for some sound bytes that would smear India (especially its govt and military) hence his typical statement "Just to make it crystal clear ....".

Enjoy !!!
Post Reply