Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[A_Gupta]

Have actually corresponded with Ejaz Haider, back when, even sent him an India Year Book 2008, because he had no clue about India's economic progress. Ejaz Haider back then argued that terrorism is a legitimate, even essential tool of statecraft. I think he still believes so.

My excuse is that I was quite naive back then. The idea that reason and evidence cannot convince someone was a foreign idea to me. Now I know better.

[williams]

To whom-so-ever it may concern: if you must use poison-venom-deceit, at least make it sophisticated enough that it cannot be easily debunked.
"Munir is overthrown", "coup in Bangladesh", "Karachi is on fire" doesn't help anyone.

Further in a "we said, they said" kind of situation, India gets into the "hyphenated-with-Pakistan" situation, which it does not want.

Personal credibility is a national asset if you speak for the nation.

"China won" is purely because India officially does not contradict strongly the "1+ Rafales were shot down". Therefore the assumption is that a Chinese missile from a Chinese jet did the job.

etc. Anyhow, this is pointless because the behavior of Indian leadership, India media, Indian social media warriors is not going to change. Also the Indian-origin employees of BBC, CNN, etc., bend over backwards to try to show they are professionally neutral and objective; while Pakistani-origin employees of the same have no such compunction. This also is not going to change.

If a country cannot achieve its foreign policy objective substantially, the idea of narrative warfare becomes hollow. What was India's aim? In the short term, we want to punish the terrorists and their perpetrators in a language that they can understand that every time they conduct an attack in India, there will be military and economic consequences. In the long term, we want the terrorists and their perpetrators to think twice before they plan another attack. India has achieved both these objectives spectacularly and has put Pakistan on a probationary chokehold with IWT in abeyance. These objectives could be achieved with Pakistan having nukes and countries like China and Turkey helping her with advanced weapons.

Now, let us come to narrative warfare. 1.4 billion Indian citizens saw on their TV screens for the first time Indian weapons striking at the heart of Pakistan. They also saw that Pakistan could do very little to counterattack. They saw their military professionals showing evidence after evidence on what was done to Pakistan. Pakistani local Abduls also saw the same along with the world's intelligence networks.

If the Western media is covering that up, then we know they are scared at the fact that India has come off as a significant global power and would not want their local Abduls to know about it. The same goes with Chinese and Paki media, but we all know, and even their local Abduls know, that whatever their media says is pure propaganda. Half the world also knows Trump's tweets are childish rants with no substance.

So the question is, what should India do now? We are countering this narrative to the extent possible and going ahead with life as usual. We would have seen the military gaps and will be filling that in. We have not lost anything economically or geopolitically. Pakistan will face significant economic, military, and geopolitical losses in the coming years.

Did this cause any geopolitical reverses for China? That was not India's objective, so a big no is the answer. If China wants to give more free alms to Pakistan in terms of more weapons, etc, she is free to do that. West may think India may shell out more money to buy their weapon systems. India will acquire advanced technology if it is available. Still, most of the money will go to domestic products, and India will savor a good export market for her military products that worked in this conflict.

Geopolitically, this is a thumping win for India, no matter what the Western propaganda outlets say. So, we should savor that moment instead of profoundly analyzing the words from these propaganda pieces.

[A_Gupta]

@krithivas, this article in Small Wars Journal (an Arizona State University publication) by John Spencer has been linked before, but I think it is good from an infowar perspective, so am drawing your attention to it.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/05/22 ... odern-war/

In it, India is held up as a model for the US.

The United States is in urgent need of fundamental defense reform. Not just adjustments. Not just marginal gains. A full-scale overhaul. The wars of today—and the even more brutal ones looming on the horizon—will not be won by the slow, the bloated, or the bureaucratically constrained. They will be won by those who can think faster, build faster, and fight smarter—and above all, by those who master the physics of lethality required on the modern battlefield. Right now, that’s not us.

The goal of modern war is no longer to prepare for indefinite, grinding campaigns. The objective is clear: wars must be won quickly and decisively with superior military capabilities. That demands a defense ecosystem built not just for speed—but for scale. The United States has fallen into the trap of believing that one magic platform, one exquisite system, can win future wars. It can’t. Winning will require modularity, volume, redundancy, and continuous adaptation—built into a system that is ultimately faster, leaner, and more efficient. That means rapidly identifying battlefield requirements, acquisition, research, iterative development and manufacturing, and deployment across an industrial base designed to surge—not stall. India just proved what that looks like.

India, too, offers a compelling model. In 2014, after its own moment of strategic introspection, New Delhi launched the “Make in India” initiative—reforming its defense sector around domestic production, self-reliance, and strategic speed. A decade later, that investment paid off in Operation Sindoor.

Operation Sindoor was more than a swift and precise military response to another cross-border terrorist attack. It marked a strategic inflection point. In just four days, India used domestically developed systems to strike hardened targets across the border with precision, speed, and overwhelming effect. No US systems. No foreign supply lines. Just BrahMos missiles, Akashteer air defense units, and loitering munitions designed or assembled at home.

India’s overwhelming success demonstrated something more enduring than airpower. It validated a national defense doctrine built around efficient domestic industrial strength. And most significantly, it delivered a clear message to its strategic rival. Pakistan—a Chinese proxy by armament, alignment, doctrine—was completely outmatched. Its Chinese-made air defense systems could not stop, detect, or deter India’s precision strikes. In Sindoor, India didn’t just win. It demonstrated overwhelming military superiority against a Chinese-backed adversary.

The BrahMos missile—a supersonic cruise missile co-developed with Russia but now largely manufactured in India—costs approximately $4.85 million per unit. While more expensive than the older U.S. Tomahawk ($1 to $2.5 million, depending on the variant), BrahMos delivers unmatched speed and kinetic impact at nearly Mach 3—a distinct performance advantage. Meanwhile, India’s Akashteer system—an AI-integrated air defense control and reporting network—is being fielded at a fraction of the cost of U.S. systems like NASAMS or Patriot. With a contract value of just $240 million for a full suite of integrated capabilities, Akashteer exemplifies India’s ability to deploy high-performance, scalable systems without the financial burdens typical of Western platforms. Together, these investments reflect a strategic model built on capability, speed, and cost-efficiency—one the United States would do well to study.

India’s drone usage during Sindoor reinforced the point. The SkyStriker—an Israeli-developed loitering munition assembled domestically—and the Harop, a long-range autonomous loitering munition, proved critical to India’s ability to identify and strike key terrorist targets with precision.

This wasn’t theory. It was execution. These systems were not boutique prototypes—they were deployed, tested, and validated in a real war.

Meanwhile, Pakistani defenses—built largely around older Chinese systems like the LY-80, HQ-9/P, and FM-90—were powerless to detect, deter, or respond to the strikes. In the skies over Pakistan, India didn’t just dominate. It redefined regional deterrence.

India has already moved from 30% to 65% domestic sourcing in defense capital procurement, with a goal of 90% by the decade’s end. It increased capital outlays for domestic production from $6 billion in 2019-2020 to nearly $20 billion in 2023-24. It allowed up to 74% FDI in defense, bringing in foreign partners while building indigenous capacity. India didn’t just talk about reform. It executed it. And it won.

India has become a master of the physics of lethality. The United States can learn from their success and model some of their changes for its own needs.

[bala]

Imagine not hundreds, but thousands or tens of thousands of drones per swarm.

Appreciate the different opinions on taking on the Chinese PLA which is populated by 1 child cadets who are used to ipad/games/etc and are least interested in a fight, including their leaders. Currently the PLA is demoralized considering Emperor firing PLA leaders left and right every month.

India has appropriate weapons to take on swarms. These weapons when fired fragment into pieces and damage many things in its vicinity. An entire swarm of drones can be taken out. Yes, Quantity can be taken out relatively easily.

I also hope many here view this YT by Lt. Gen P R Shankar v=HZckLsIFP_c just prepend youtube.com/watch? Shankar tells a good story on the existing roads in Tibet which are very few, to allow troop movement. BTW road building in Tibet is a tricky thing since it is high up in the mountains. These roads are quite close to India's border and incapacitating them is relatively easy, send Prachands to enforce security. Where would they get their supplies in numbers? In conjunction with IAF air cover India can quickly take out Lhasa and beyond. Even if India say gets 200 km of ground in Tibet that is sufficient to crimp China plans - gone will be their control over rivers, Shaksgam valley, CPEC in Pak land. I would conduct this ops right away, not give China any time to fix their issues with Pak land China maal. As it is the CCP is talking about replacing Emperor with someone else. India is literally given a golden opportunity to take out the Chinese bluff. There will be some losses/causalities but that is par for the course in any war.

[ramana]

Deans,
We have 5 lakh women in rural areas trained on drones. It's only Military spit and polish that prevents using them in war.

Am sure it will be corrected. Look at how poised Col Qureshi and Wing Commander Singh as spokespersons were.

[Vayutuvan]

Yes, posting the link for the benefit of members https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIuWiBi9PBo

@Kanoji ji, thanks.

But does anybody have a YT link to the full debate? TIA

I found it.

[arshyam]

Hriday, I thought he said thanks for telling us it's a storage facility.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/operati ... rs-8396035

"We have not hit Kirana hills, whatever is there," Director General of Air Operations Air Marshal AK Bharti said at a media briefing on Operation Sindoor.

Let's just say the good AM was speaking on behalf of the Air Force, and I believe what he said.

[A_Gupta]

Taiwan Talks - worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNhF7CQPLxg

Prof. Manoj Kumar Panigrahi and Dr Sana Hashmi do a good job.

Chinese involvement is discussed.

One thing I had not previously noticed:

as we can see uh the Chinese are claiming the J10 won the victory and along with the air-to-air missiles but the Pakistanis are claiming the joint fighter aircraft JF7 that they make it jointly with the Chinese that it was at the warfront so within them uh within the Pakistan itself and the Chinese there are two narratives that's coming out

[bala]

Operation Sindoor was surgery on terrorists infrastructure but the foolish and suicidal escalation by Pakistan lead to huge losses to its aircraft inventory, air defence systems with airbase runway infrastructure cratered. The China/Pak failure of their missiles made no impact on war scenario. The dismal failure of Turkey/China drone systems with electronic jamming lead to failure of critical systems. Scalp, Hammer and BrahMos did a precise job with targets. Any other army chief would have resigned but shameless Asim Munir promoted himself as Failure Marshal. The western media was initially fooled by Pakistan/China narratives. However the evidence is the opposite with many pointing out to what really happened. The initial euphoria of shooting five aircraft (banshee drones) was taken hook line and sinker to celebrate Pakistan/China. Now the world realizes the sheer buffoonery of Pakistan/China and the piss poor equipment of China.

PAKISTAN’s Castle of Lies Crumbles World Finally Acknowledges INDIA’s Win

Another stirring discussion with Lieutenant General R. Shankar (R), Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh (R), and Major General Rajiv Narayanan (R) with numerous footage shown. Pakistan’s Castle of Lies begins to collapse — brick by brick. From fabricating false narratives around Operation Sindoor to leaning on China's support, the illusion is fading. With the harsh reality of NO WATER setting in, what lies ahead for the average Pakistani? The truth behind the Indus Waters Treaty, exposed.

[Aditya_V]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 52432.html

Four air-launched missile strikes by IAF on May 10 and Pakistan was on mat

ndia’s S-400 air defence system in Adampur went into action no less than 11 times during Operation Sindoor and destroyed a Pakistani SAAB-2000 airborne early warning system as far as 315 kilometres away deep in Pakistan.

Indian Air Force also has proof of its missiles having downed one C-130 J medium lift aircraft, a JF-17 and two F-16 fighters on ground and in the air, they added.

As per this other than Bohlari with Brahmos, S-400 took out another Erieye, drip drip details are coming out. Indian version should come out in 2 months when during Monsoon Paki terrorists and Military operations will be a bit hampered and there is a temporary pause.

Pakistan has prematurely retired its KDK fleet, 6 Erieye originally acquired with Saudi Sponsor, then Talubannies in 2-3 attacks made 3 in operational, so another 3 were acquired and paid for by foreign sponsors , 1 crashed, 1 more acquired- that is how Pakistan 10 came- 4 were already lost. Now 2 more in operation in Sindoor- the one at Bolari did an extended flight time and hence was tracked- so highly likely 1 or 2 are grounded for spares.

Plus with Major Mobile and ground based radars taken out, Pakis now have mainly Sakesar radar to depend on but huge gaps are there in radar system and ability of PAF to coordinate offensive operations

[ramana]

Also shows the absolute change in targeting strategy.
Kill it dead with Brahmos and Scalp.

We are yet to hear about SAAWing and Hammering.

[Deans]

AI has a different opinion: "The largest drone attack Russia has launched against Ukraine involved 273 Shahed drones. This record-breaking attack occurred on Sunday, May 18, 2025, and primarily targeted the central Kyiv region"

Ukraine on Russia, AI does not tell instead this type of information:
"May 22, 2025: Ukraine launched another large-scale drone attack on Russia.
Scale: Russian authorities claimed to have shot down 485 drones in this attack, with 63 of them over the Moscow region."

Not that I trust AI. Just an amusing aside.

The AI is correct - But, there are two types of drones.
The longer range drones, like the Shahed/Geran have been 100 per day, which Russia has recently ramped up to 200+ as you mention.
While Ukraine's largest long range drone raid was around 450 drones, both have averaged 100-150 per day this year.

95% of drones are short range of FPV drones. It is this number that takes the total to around 2 lac drones per month for each side.
The Russians have fewer drones (since they have to compete with NATO's combined capacity) but are using fibre optic cable drones which cannot
be jammed.

[Deans]

C Fair is an American political scientist. She is not a military and warfare analyst unlike -- Tom Cooper, Walter Ludwig from RUSI, John Spencer and few others.

She cannot comprehend what AM Bharti said when he mentioned "objectives were met". People like Tom etc would actually understand that and have explicitly mentioned that with evidence and analysis back it. K Thappar is looking for some sound bytes that would smear India (especially its govt and military) hence his typical statement "Just to make it crystal clear ....".

Enjoy !!!

More than Ms. Fair, Karan Thapar clearly has a bias. He does not bring a guest on the show unless there is a near certainty they will say something to discredit the govt.

For those who aren't aware - Tom Cooper is probably the most published author on modern air combat. One may not agree with all his views, especially
when he has to put them together in the fog of war, but his technical knowledge is immense.
Walter Ludwig writes for RUSI, the world's oldest and most respected military think tank.
Col John Spencer is actually a leading authority on urban combat and teaches at West point. While not an air warfare expert, he understands the
strategic picture well.

[pravula]

I have not directly interacted with Tom Cooper, but he was held in decent esteem by Harry (RIP) and was very active in old AFM forum. Not everything he says is 100%, but he has been known to use first principles, which is a rarity in most news experts-guests

[williams]

One of the key points of Op Sindoor is India's strategy of proving that the Paki Army provides active support to terrorists. Now, on the 6th, when India conducted airstrikes on terrorist bases inside Pakistan, it was a hazardous operation. Pakistani air defense networks with radar and PAF fighters were not disabled. By the way, we used simulated dummy UAVs to paint a picture of many of our fighters in the air. We took that risk based on the calculation that Pakistan would respond furiously. Now, we can tell the world that Pakistan is ready to risk everything for its terrorist assets.
Another key point is that while the four-day military operation is over, the composite war that India declared on April 22nd is not over. I see India slowly taking out the .5 front warriors one at a time. GoI has also asked the UN observers to leave.

[Jay]

The damage we inflicted is now becoming public.

India’s S-400 air defence system in Adampur went into action no less than 11 times during Operation Sindoor and destroyed a Pakistani SAAB-2000 airborne early warning system as far as 315 kilometres away deep in Pakistan.

S400's 92N6E radar has a range of 340 kms, according to russian sources(link below). The only missile in this family that has more than 300 kms range is the 40N6E. Unless it's not DDM and we actually hit their craft at these ranges, this will be a new record for the longest surface to air kill, surpassing the previous record by more than 100kms.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141129020 ... 08/080603/

https://web.archive.org/web/20190812162 ... 17512.html

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... %20attacks.

[Aditya_V]

[

95% of drones are short range of FPV drones. It is this number that takes the total to around 2 lac drones per month for each side.
The Russians have fewer drones (since they have to compete with NATO's combined capacity) but are using fibre optic cable drones which cannot
be jammed.

Yes we need some solutions like drones with Guns , DRDO is already including Jammers laser killer for these, but these drones also have 95% failure rate which neither the Russians or Ukranians show, they need support and considering misses they will are ultimately as costly as field Artillery to use. Plus in difficult terrain surely lots of FIber optic ones are being lost but will not be published.

But apart from that I think some of the Turkish Drones were equivalent or better than Russian Geran Drones(Iranian Shaheed) and we could tackle swarms better than Ukraine with NATO Sateelites, AWACS, SAM's, Air defense artillery for a few days- (Ukraines have had to do it for 3+ years- like Israel in such a case our Air defense Ammo and missiles might have gotten exhausted), this aspect has kind of shocked everyone, that 400-500 with Haft-1, Haft-2 and 1 Shaheen missile could be tackled with just 1 hit to medical facility in Udhampur Airbase.

Lets not forget a few years back, the Saudi, UAE expensive US/UK/EU based Missile only defense failed Houthi fired Iranian Shahed Drones.

[Avinandan]

But are using fibre optic cable drones which cannot
be jammed.

Does India have capability to produce Fibre optic or Non-Jammable waypoint based small 500gm payload based Drones with about 1 km range?

I had posted a Special ops based scenario (viewtopic.php?p=2649354#p2649354 in Newbie thread related to this). Would appreciate if gurus could comment on it there.

[Deans]

Yes we need some solutions like drones with Guns , DRDO is already including Jammers laser killer for these, but these drones also have 95% failure rate which neither the Russians or Ukranians show, they need support and considering misses they will are ultimately as costly as field Artillery to use. Plus in difficult terrain surely lots of FIber optic ones are being lost but will not be published.

The Russians claim 90% of drones (both FPV and long range) are disabled (by EW) or shot down. Damage reports seem to collaborate that. Ukraine claims a slightly lower number, which is understandable, because of Russia fibre optic cable drones and because their air defence is getting more
degraded. Also, many armoured vehicles report surviving multiple drone hits.

At section level, Russian infantry has 1 person with a shotgun for use against drones and drone warning systems that beep when a drone is near.

[Hriday]

Sorry if it is a duplicate post. See the video and photos. Also consider that IAF only said that all pilots are safe. Alternatively it could be Chinese and Pakistani propaganda.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/192003 ... nYOhQ&s=19

OSINT: New footage suggests mystery engine highly likely M88 (Indian Rafale jet's engine) based on distinct nozzle screw pattern, not M53 (Indian Mirage 2000's engine).

Visuals from Bathinda, India.

Source: @RickJoe_PLA

From Alpha Defense,

I don’t wanna claim anything but I have so many questions on this video
1. Why no burn mark on ground ?
2. Engine is cleanly dislodged from jet as if BVR/SAM came with screwdriver.
3. Why there is no other debris in site ?
4. Why lighting angles of engine and human in background are different?

[arvin]

The damage we inflicted is now becoming public.

S400's 92N6E radar has a range of 340 kms, according to russian sources(link below). The only missile in this family that has more than 300 kms range is the 40N6E. Unless it's not DDM and we actually hit their craft at these ranges, this will be a new record for the longest surface to air kill, surpassing the previous record by more than 100kms.

Agree with this. 315 km shootdown of PAF AEW by 40N6E should be a world record acheived in actual combat.

In a test scenario , S500 has shot down object at 480 km in 2018.

[RCase]

Lieutenant General Ravi Shankar (Retd) helps explain estimation of losses in the doc put out by Wg Cdr Khushwaha. He explains why that estimate is incorrect and errs on the lower side. Actual losses are probably much higher. Cost of replacement is incorrectly taken as the original procurement price from yesteryears. Typically replacement of equipment today will be significantly higher. Estimation does not include other losses like drones and missiles fired. On the first day, Pakis fired a huge amount of missiles (300+?). They would probably would have run out in a very short time. The involvement of artillery and ammunition has not been calculated. Loss of pilots and personnel not accounted for. Emphasizes the importance of training for induction of systems. Talks about his personal experience of inducting arty gun from US. The IA team spent a significant amount of time in the US during winter to understand the details of the equipment and plan the appropriate training.

7 BN USD PLUS LOSSES OF THE NUCLEAR BEGGAR WITHOUT A BUNYAN / LT GEN PR SHANKAR

[skumar]

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The REAL TRUTH About Pakistan and India’s Historic DOGFIGHT AIR BATTLE!

Fighter pilot Reacts to Pakistan and India's Largest Air Battle Claims! India-Pakistan Massive 'Dogfight' Shows Changing Shape of Air Warfare. Operation Sindoor was an air battle India enacted on Pakistan to take out terrorist training camps.

[ramana]

To me what is fascinating is IAF got into the OODA loop and paralyzed the Pakistanis. Just 15 Brahmos-A.

Both Chess and Go are two dimensional games. In reality it's like a jumbled Rubik's cube of strategy, tactics, and political( economy, cultural, social etc).
What India did in Operation Sindoor is to hit the precise targets in such a short timeframe that incapacitated Pakistan and more so it's benefactors.
This is what the OODA loop is really about.
John Boyd came up with this concept of OODA loop before Desert Storm.

[ramana]

We saw how IAF can remove Bunyan.
Wait till IN does Chaddi Uttar!

[AdityaVM]

Hello to all here.

I am also a member on DFB (DFIs latest avatar), and have posted the below comment to help members sharpen their attacks against Pakistani narrative traps and the SM narratives being run by Pakis to understate the magnitude of what was achieved in Op Sindoor and their assertion that India's current superiority in Military matters is temporary and that soon the Great Chinaman will transfer to the " Stealth " fighters and then the whole of India will tremble.

Please fell free to pick it apart for any flaws.


1. About India's Nuclear Arsenal and its state of readiness.

I refer you all to this talk given at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories by Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar, Retd. Indian Navy, past commander of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC).

The Entire talk is a Gold mine of nuggets about the status, doctrine and the Release Authority of the Nuclear Command Authority(NCA) and its resistance to Decapitating strikes.

Specifically go to from 41:00 mins onwards for readiness levels, in fact immediately preceding that information was given about an "alternate NCA" in India, if the primary NCA is neutralized for some reason.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co


The mating process in India's Nuclear arsenal is no longer physical where guys have to physically lug the warheads to the missile and mate it to the missile manually. He says the mating process is Electronic. NOT PHYSICAL. This means the readiness levels can be brought up form a very low level to a very high level VERY QUICKLY. So there is no way the pakipigs or chongs can surprise us.

In fact, every single doubt and query raised by every one here, about the pakistani irrationality and nuclear security have been answered in that talk. May be not directly but he alludes to the fact that there are factions inside Pakistan that will switch sides the moment it comes to Nuclear exchange. I HIGHLY recommend every single one of you to please watch the entire talk. It will be worth it.


2. The RR about Pakis getting Stealth fighters and we needing our own Stealth fighters to supposedly "counter" the Pakis, recommending emergency buys of F-35 or Su-57.

First, the operations of Chinese stealth fighters are extremely suspect and there are no reliable figures or parameters so that we may hold them to a standard.

There were already concerns raised that Chinese electronics industry has absolutely shit QC and the penetration of these into the Chinese MIC will cause their Military technology to suffer horrendous Failure rates. However, these were quickly quieted down by the US MIC ecosystem and Pentagon to hoard ever more massive budgets to combat the Chinese "Threat"

Please refer to the below blog.


Some Thoughts and Discussion
Air Power Focus. Myths versus realities in the use of air power from the past to the present day.
theboresight.blogspot.com

The Operative part is the following.

"
Programs that are part of China's modernization effort (produced or copied in China) will suffer at the hands of the PRCs' own massive counterfeit electronic IC and component industry. This industry uses salvaged (consumer-grade) e-waste that is then deliberately re-marked/miss-marked and offered as “new” MIL-spec items. The reduction in PRC military readiness and combat capability will be proportional to the degree of penetration of Chinese counterfeit electronic components into the PRCs own combat systems. This will include systems for international sale or developed by the PRC for others.

We expect Chinese electronic system failure rates on the order of 200% to 500% higher (higher) than Western or Russian systems/per operational hr. This could be an understated figure."

This was always a speculation but could never be confirmed short of China engaging in a military action of their own, post which the After Action Reports (AAR) would be analysed and the failure rates would be drawn up. Now the scenario is different post Operation Sindoor.

EVERY Single one of the Chinese systems failed. Moreover, based on the intact PL-15s that have been recovered, and the abject failure of the Chinese HQ-9 SAM (Copy of S-300), the above assertion needs to be taken more seriously.

So, we have absolutely NO IDEA how effective Chinese stealth fighters are. Moreover, the Chinese stealth fighters are designed around the Doctrine of "Frontal Stealth" . They are designed to be able to minimize their Radar signature while approaching the American CBGs and launch their Anti ship missiles. They are not all around fighters designed to operate optimally under all conditions and having the ability to undertake Multirole missions where they can be shifted from one theater of operations to the other or be used for Dog fights, where their features can overwhelm any 4.5++ generation fighters.

Their Probable usage doctrine calls for the use of groups of 30 or 40 J-20's or J-35's, to approach the American CBGs and launch their missiles. The PRC assumes that a lot of them will be shot down but even if they lose 40 J-20s in exchange for a Single American Carrier, then that is a win in their books. Good for the Chongs, but bad for the Pakis. Why?

Because the same reason why the J-20 or J-35 will work for Chings is the same reason it will not work for the Pakipigs.

What are the Pakis expecting from the "Stealth" Moniker fighters they get from China?

Ability to enter and leave Indian Airspace at will, be able to undertake strike missions or Anti air missions and return to base. That in short is the Paki wet dream.

These are the problems associated with that line of thought.

Stealth fighters are not countered by other stealth fighters. They are countered by VHF Radars that allow you to detect Stealth fighters, Plane mounted and Mast mounted IRST systems and Passive radar signal detection systems that are designed to track the IR and Radar Emissions without giving away their positions (thereby immune to pre-emptive SEAD using Anti Radiation Missiles), and a layered air defense that can stop both the fighter and the missiles it may launch.

Remember, the Pakis need stealth in our airspace to operate, we do not. Because we do not need enter their airspace to pound them. Pakis cannot do the same to us. But the Pakis are not going to risk their planes in suicide runs into Indian Airspace. They would want to ingress into Indian Airspace and launch their Missile payloads at either Ground targets or Air targets. But the moment they launch and turn around to RTB they will lose their stealth because of the above-mentioned Frontal stealth of the J-35 and the IR emissions from their Jet engines, even if they are on Supercruise ( which I highly doubt, given the limitations of the Chinese jet engines at high altitude tests). By the time they can enter their own airspace, Indian fighters on BARCAP would have launched IR guided missiles and Indian S-400s would launch their own missiles and every possible air base they could land at would have its runways cratered and their Fuel depots and other support infra turned into scrap by Ground and Air launched Missiles like SCALP, BrahMos, Rudram etc.

And moreover any missile that could be launched from a J-35 has already been launched at us from the JF-17 Blk 3 and they have failed miserably to score any hits whatsoever.

So, short of turning the plane into a suicide mujahid, what will the Pakis do with the "Stealth" J-35s ? Polish them up nicely to scare the uninformed Hindus next door? Any payload they could launch from that platform has already been neutralized by us in Op Sindoor, and even if they get Stealth fighters, no new missiles will come with them that can change the equation any more than what has already happened.

BTW, I do not think Chings will risk giving the Pakis J-35s, let alone J-20 because if they are shot down or disabled by using the above anti stealth playbook, then the entire Chinese military Superiority shtick will come crashing down faster than Dolund Tramp's wife's panties infront of a Camera in the 90's.

And, I do not think the Pakis can afford it either, especially not when their Agriculture productivity will crash considering the cancellation of IWT.

So, No. We do not need either the F-35, or Su-57 to counter any transfers of stealth aircraft from China to Pak. What we do need are the following.

1. UHF / VHF Radar systems and deploying them in strength.
2. Modernizing even more of our air defence grid, with indigenous SAM systems especially in the 1km to 100 km range, so that we may deploy them in numbers without constraints on numbers or availability. Have Bulk stocks of existing SAM systems.
3. Get the rest of the S400 delivered as soon as possible.
4. Make our own S400 equivalent, i.e Project Kusha, and deploy it in numbers.
5. Induct as many long-range AA missiles as possible, like, Astra Mk1,2, Meteors, and complete the testing and deployment of Project Gandiva (Astra Mk3)
6. Get some more Rafale as a stop gap measure and concentrate on churning out numbers of Tejas Mk1A, so that all our fighter fleet is modernized finally.

If you look at the news coming in these days, 1, 2, are in progress. Dovalji is on his way to Russia to make sure of 3. 4, 5 are in progress to be completed by 2026-27. 6 is also in progress.

3. RR about Fighter squadron numbers "dwindling"

Consider the following number.

The Payload capacity of a WW2 era Heavy Bomber like the B-29 is 9000 kg for 1500 km approx.

The Payload capacity of a Su-30 MKI is 8130 kg over 3000 km. And moreover, given the precise nature of Modern PGMs, what militarily significant damage could be done by a fleet of B-29s can be done by a Single Su 30 MKI.

What does this mean? It means that modern aircraft have capabilities that trump numbers, especially in mission specific environments.

We all seem to be under the misconception that Air Force's job is to conduct large scale air battles with regimented lines of fighters like the old medieval times, with Foot soldiers, Cavalry and Knights. That is not what multirole fighters are for, that is not what modern air forces are for.

What do we need the Air force or fighters multirole or air superiority for? Our primary adversary is China and Pak combined. Meaning we need to be able to do the following.

Defend against the Adversary's Ingress, foil his plans for attacking targets of importance. Offense against the targets of importance of the Adversary.
I postulate that a large part of the defense and offense part has been outsourced to our missiles, because of our lack of requisite aircraft numbers. It is a stopgap measure mind you, but it works.

With regards to the Interception of Enemy Aircraft, basically point defense like what was done by Mig 21s can be done by missiles and that will allow us stretch our limited fighter numbers a long way. The reason fighters were assigned the Point defense duty is the high failure rates and the unreliability of missile systems, which is not a problem for us. We still need the number of aircrafts up in the air, but they are going to be on CAP duty and not with pilots sitting in the cockpit waiting for the " go " to launch. Especially after the Induction of the High-Altitude Pseudo Satellite under development and the deployment of Airships with Radars as has already being done, we will have a full picture of the Adversary's Air space and the airspace around 600 km from our borders precisely in all directions. This improves our response time and takes care of defense.

With regards to offense, our existing missiles are enough to tackle the entire length and breadth of Pakistan. No part of Pakistan is out of reach. So, we do not need fighters venturing inside the Paki airspace to bombard Pakistan.

The Challenge with China is that it has way more strategic depth than Pakistan and the targets of importance in India are way more accessible to the Chinese from Tibet than Eastern China is to us. Remember our posture against China is dissuasive deterrence. Meaning, we need to just defend against the Chinese assaults making sure there are no major territorial losses and then undertake limited assaults across the LAC which result in the capture of Culturally significant Tibetan areas, which can then be used as a bargaining chip.

With regards to offense against Eastern China, I suppose that is why we have developed the Integrated Rocket Force. It will undertake offensive roles in the immediate battlefield, that would otherwise be done by Multirole fighters, and the existing Multirole fighter fleets of the IAF would retain the ability to swing from the Western theater to the Eastern theater on demand thereby neutralizing some amount of the Fighter squadron deficit.

So, in summation, yes there are less squadrons than desired, but it is not a panic scenario. It will be at least a decade of continuous work before we can be at 42 squadrons and no amount of money thrown at the problem will solve it in a hurry. The only thing we can do is make a lot of Tejas and iteratively improve it. Make the Tejas Mk2, AMCA and bring them online and in numbers in the next 10-15 years. We are also investing a lot in the HAL CATS program and the Ghatak stealth UCAV programs as they are easier to get in numbers quickly once certified. Once there are a large numbers of Ghatak stealth UCAVs, and HAL CATS WARRIOR, WINGMAN and Max versions available, many missions undertaken by the multirole fighters can be taken over by these UCAVs, especially Deep Penetration and Strike missions.

So, please stop falling into the narrative traps set by the Pakis and keep disrobing their Field Marshall without engaging in RR.

[gakakkad]

Tour da force . Should be made sticky . Great post .

[sanjaykumar]

Frontal stealth is very easily negated.

Place radar pickets along the Pakistan border scanning East.

One really does not want to wait until they release their loads and turn around to challenge them.

[bala]

This is a brilliant informative talk by Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan (retd). The topic is about Gehra Rajya (deep state) and includes USA, China, post Sindoor. Of course, there is the Trump antics vis-a-vis Pak land. Not sure whether this is thread. Howeve this has direct bearing on the future of India.

China is facing an existential question after Trump Tariffs in post Covid era. The deflation that they are facing is tremendous. Their sphere of influence is declining, BRI is in shambles. N. Korea said tata to them and joined with Russia. Those benefitting from China made stuff rebadged as their own - Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia - are in the doldrums in terms of tariffs. Most south asian nations were using a strategy of pitting China vs US, now however their tune has changed to apease the US in terms of trade/tariffs. Phillipines, Japan, South Korea are at odds with China and Taiwan is facing an imminent threat by China. In the middle east, there are pro and con Israel factions, and the influence of China is waning. Only Iran and China seem to be in working terms. DJT has managed to descend with his MICs into Saudi, Qatar and Dubai and close deals. After Sindoor, China is facing a Quality of equipment dilemma. Their electronics, missiles, planes, drones and more are not working as advertized. China's motorized 155 mm gun, is rotten to the core, pak land had to resort to recalling their old guns in the fight. China has around 2000 of these deployed in PLA, good luck replacing them in the short term. Currenly, maldives, sri lanka and nepal are wary of china. Only BD and Pak land are dancing with the dragon. There is a faction of the deep state in China which have sunk assets and with many in the deep state openly siding with China. This is part of their scheme to have the entire world at constant chaos while they profit from this madness.

DJT has pissed of many nations in the world. Euros, South Africa, Lat America, Canada, UK, China, Ukraine and recently his suck up to Pak land in Operations Sindoor is leaving a bad taste in India. BD shenanigans are beyond pale. The US has also frozen funds of Russia while talking to Putin for a truce. However Putin is demanding a buffer against Ukraine. Israel and US are also at odds. With Iran the US is not having much luck in closing a deal. DJT is also armtwisting apple and wanting a return to manufacture within the US. This is not a bright strategy, since the costs are rather huge in the US for labor.

MNCs and wallstreet are not in sync with DJT. Low cost goods require a home away from China and the Deep State is as usual creating chaos across the world, in the hopes of dominating a sucker nation to house their trinket manufacture. There is a deep state faction that has DJT's ears. DJT has openly talked of nations like Pak, BD to do trade. Where exactly will these companies have manufacture at scale other than India. The cross currents are making India rethink the entire US tango both short term and long term. Many of these confusing posturing, is to get deep concessions from India and be at the dictate of the deep state, make no mistake. This requires careful navigation by Modi and team, sometimes they have to give and take depending on the requests. DJT is puffing himself at every turn crowing victory where none were there in the first place like stopping Operation Sindoor. The technology prowess of India is waking up many especially the deep state and there is anxiety that India is progressing in directions not in keeping with expectations of the power wielders. This is a quandry and needs to be addressed by them, but how?

India USA, गहरा राज्य कहाँ है , Modi's Plan to counter Trump

[hanumadu]

Gen. Ravi Shankar helps explain estimation of losses in the doc put out by Wg. Cmdr. Khushwaha

I think they double counted some paki losses. They counted both the cost of the planes that were lost and the amount required to replace them. You should count only one of them. If you lose your phone, you will incur expenditure only to replace it.

[A_Gupta]

Once the value of Pakistan's losses require more hard currency than they have in order to replace the losses, I start to lose interest in raising the estimated losses. Also, IMO, runway repair they can do with their local labor and materials. The key question is, what will Pakistan have to import that requires foreign currency?

[Aditya_V]

Doc Ji echoing my thoughts, the same gang asked us to display Mig 21's after the 65 war

https://x.com/shiv_cybersurg/status/1926318210841763940

I don't interact much with Pakis on X so maybe you guys can educate me. I have not seen a single Paki asking PAF to line up Erieyes or F-16s to prove that all are there. But I see Indians saying "Line up our Rafales for counting" and "Give geolocation of where Paki AEW was hit so we can confirm with sat images"
What is this disease that Indians suffer from?

[williams]

Hello to all here.

I am also a member on DFB (DFIs latest avatar), and have posted the below comment to help members sharpen their attacks against Pakistani narrative traps and the SM narratives being run by Pakis to understate the magnitude of what was achieved in Op Sindoor and their assertion that India's current superiority in Military matters is temporary and that soon the Great Chinaman will transfer to the " Stealth " fighters and then the whole of India will tremble.

Please fell free to pick it apart for any flaws.

Very well written sir. Thank you. Op Sindoor has proclaimed that there is a new sheriff in town. This happened because after 1971, Bharat has drawn a punch according to her weight. Kudus to all the agencies and politicos to plan this out perfectly. Now the job is to institutionalize this sort of decision making for the future. If we keep chipping at the Kaveri, Tejas and AMCA and other AD, UCAV programs, we should see the returns for it in the next decade.

[drnayar]

This is a good alternative to fibre optical drones

https://thenextweb.com/news/ukrainian-d ... places-gps

A Ukrainian drone tech firm has unveiled an alternative to GPS navigation.

Sine.Engineering built the system to counter Russia’s electronic warfare, which has wreaked havoc on GPS signals. 

To dodge the interference, Sine invented a satellite-free replacement.

The approach is inspired by time-of-flight (ToF) methods, which began tracking aircraft long before the advent of GPS.  


Unlike GPS, ToF systems don’t rely on satellites. Instead, they measure the time it takes a signal to travel between a transmitter and a target.

In Sine’s framework, the calculations come from a communication module for drones. 

Smaller than a playing card, the module shares signals with a ground station and two beacons. It then measures how long the signals take to travel.

As the beacons and ground station have known, static coordinates, the software can precisely determine a drone’s coordinates. And because the module runs on multiple bandwidths, the aircraft can elude jamming that targets specific frequencies.

[drnayar]

Doc Ji echoing my thoughts, the same gang asked us to display Mig 21's after the 65 war

https://x.com/shiv_cybersurg/status/1926318210841763940

I don't interact much with Pakis on X so maybe you guys can educate me. I have not seen a single Paki asking PAF to line up Erieyes or F-16s to prove that all are there. But I see Indians saying "Line up our Rafales for counting" and "Give geolocation of where Paki AEW was hit so we can confirm with sat images"
What is this disease that Indians suffer from?

I was asked to provide evidence at this very forum when posting about the erieyes

[SSridhar]

Hello to all here.
. . . .
So, please stop falling into the narrative traps set by the Pakis and keep disrobing their Field Marshall without engaging in RR.

Great post. Thanks for fleshing it out.

[Dileep]

Does India have capability to produce Fibre optic or Non-Jammable waypoint based small 500gm payload based Drones with about 1 km range?

Yes, we do, and scaling up is already happening.

[Hari Nair]

Jay, You have a point. Let's wait for more disclosure.

What is coming out is the crazy long ranges of weapons...and the speed at which Air Power doctrine is being re-written due to the very fast-pacing tech.

The game of Extended BVR engagement is also being learnt, especially with an IB thrown in-between! This conflict with a near-peer Air Force has many lessons for us.

But then, Hey I am just a tactical dinosaur...

[sanjaykumar]

The time of flight approach also involves jammable signals.

Castigating those who ask for evidence is silly and peurile.

Checks and balances is why India did a majesterial job in Op Sindoor.

Immunity from the need to demonstrate competence has lead Pakistan into another crisis which will turn out to be equal to be the east Pakistan debacle.

[Hriday]

Slight off topic, we need the similar independent navigation systems as described below for our drones and glide bombs.
https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/191978 ... YZIGA&s=19

A still unnamed Russian kamikaze UAV has a powerful 14 MP camera and a laser rangefinder that allows it to navigate using a digital map.
This information is stored in a 100 GB hard drive on a carrier board for a Jetson AI computing module, allowing GPS-free navigation.
1/

Sources and pictures in the X link above.