Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[LakshmanPST]

Just wondering,
Is Pak (and China) trying to get info on fighter jet crashes as they want to confirm whether their own tactics worked or not...?
I mean, they definitely fired some AAMs and SAMs, but looks like they're not sure whether it worked or not...
This might be the reason why India is not revealing the nos. as the operation is still not over...

[Manish_P]

हिंदी में कहावत है खून का बदला खून लेकिन यहां था सिंदूर का बदला खून -शशि थरूर

There was a 17 years old teenager killed (alongwith his father) in the attack. Sumit Parmar. He was not married.

So it might work as a snappy dialogue... But the stark reality is that it was, and always has been, blood for blood.

[Agasthi]

Thanks Madhu ji for the summary of events, very informative!

On May 9, this is what the Pakistani military spokie said "...that his country “will not de-escalate” with India. “With the damages India did on our side, they should take a hit. So far, we have been protecting ourselves, but they will get an answer in our own timing,” he said on Friday. Matches the aggressive actions from their side.

On May 10th, they surrendered. With the underground C4I & C2C nodes being taken out, India was able to establish dominance in just a few hours. Impressive indeed!

I wonder if the Pakis panicked that they thought India had used a tactical nuke against the Nur Khan C4I node arguably the largest and most impressive of Pak assets. Maybe that's why an american sniffer was out there following the bombing to check if India had used a nuke.

Q: This time, Pakis used PL-15 liberally contrasting with their similar use of AMRAAM's in 2019. Why the switch? F16's were hardly at the forefront unlike 2019 it seems.

[sanjaykumar]

What is the background or basal rate of tremblors in Karachi, Kirana and Chagai?


Seismic activity being reported but need context.

[RCase]

Just wondering,
Is Pak (and China) trying to get info on fighter jet crashes as they want to confirm whether their own tactics worked or not...?
I mean, they definitely fired some AAMs and SAMs, but looks like they're not sure whether it worked or not...
This might be the reason why India is not revealing the nos. as the operation is still not over...

I agree with you. The Pakis and Chinese are probably trying to finesse any info about their initial firing of missiles to see what happened. Obviously they are in the dark. Else, by now they would have been gloating of air kills and showing off radar evidence or satellite pics of wreckage. If their missiles locked and hit the aircraft, at least the Chinese mil satellites should have been able to locate the wreckage.

I have a feeling that the Indian forces are playing around with the Pakis about whether there was losses or not. There has been wild claims by the Pakis hitting 6 crafts, locking on to 10 - 20 fighters etc. There were leaks of decoys and nonchalant/ vague replies about initial aircraft being down and tactical mistakes corrected.

The biggest thing is that no one has been able to show the wreckage of even a single Indian aircraft. The Pakis would have been orgasming if they were to have found an Indian aircraft/ pilot. On the Indian side, not a single leaked out video of a wreckage from any person with a phone camera. Too good to believe that, given the video/selfie happy Indian public.

At the best, I can stretch my imagination that 1 aircraft was hit and the wreckage was somehow very swiftly cleared out before even a single prying eye could have captured it on camera. But multiple aircraft being cleared up super swiftly and stealthily is too much of a mind bender.

[bala]

Now Major Gaurav Arya reveals that even Peshawar up north near Afghanistan was struck by India. All this revealed by the Pakis. The list includes places Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Gujarat, Lahore, Chor, Manora, Karachi, Shorkot airbase, Nur Khan airbase, Murid airbase.

India Hit Pakistan HARDER Than Admitted

In this episode of The Chanakya Dialogues, Major Gaurav Arya breaks down Pakistan’s secret dossier that reveals India struck far more targets during Operation Sindoor than officially acknowledged, including critical locations like Peshawar and Gujranwala. He also examines Russia’s bold offer of SU-57E stealth jets to India, which includes Make-in-India production and full technology transfer. Watch this explosive analysis to understand what this means for India’s regional dominance and military preparedness.

[pravula]

youtube.com/watch?v=ypuvNIvrivk
copy into browser and watch

Why not use the YouTube tag?

[Amber G.]

Pakistani defence minister claims "Pakistan had locked on to 10 Indian jets but only shot down 5 coz Hindustan me maatam chhaa jana tha"

Not making it up...
Bilal say it was 20!
if you're going to lie, at least try to coordinate !

[Hriday]

https://x.com/DfIlite/status/1930306099 ... CFQLQ&s=19

#FatahI rockets launched towards India, had exploded just after launch, and after seeing that, the crew ran to save the launcher & other 5 rockets from exploding. That's the quality of Pakistani rockets/weapons. They were exploding on the Pak Army. Red guy is smart, running away.

The third Fatah 1 rocket exploded midflight. See the 1.59 minutes video with super slow motion showing the explosion in the above link.

[RCase]

Alpha Defense video graphically shows the chronology of the attacks on a map. Shows the entire arc of attacks from the north to the south. Includes the sites listed by the Pakis but not acknowledged by India.

30+ Strikes of IAF in Pakistan

[Rishi]

Ex BRF oldie Sunil S conjectures in other places:

1. IAF hitting PAF precisely is bad news... for India, as this means that Pak now knows their nukes and critical nodes are insecure, and this knowledge will have consequences on security paradigm

2. IAF possibly messed up hitting Kirana hills... supposedly it was an abandoned site, but if they had actually kept fissile materials there, this hit was not intended, and hence a "targeting imprecision" by IAF.

The resulting freak out makes things even more on a hair trigger alert

[Tanaji]

Ex BRF oldie Sunil S conjectures in other places:

1. IAF hitting PAF precisely is bad news... for India, as this means that Pak now knows their nukes and critical nodes are insecure, and this knowledge will have consequences on security paradigm

2. IAF possibly messed up hitting Kirana hills... supposedly it was an abandoned site, but if they had actually kept fissile materials there, this hit was not intended, and hence a "targeting imprecision" by IAF.

The resulting freak out makes things even more on a hair trigger alert

Where does he blog now? Indianmavericks is not updated.
I found it hard to agree with some of his analysis in the past.

[VinodTK]

From: The Economic Times News

Pakistani expert drops bombshell says US runs Nur Khan airbase even Pak army not allowed to enter

A claim by Pakistani security expert Imtiaz Gul has ignited a controversy regarding the Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi. In a widely circulated video, Gul alleges that the strategically important airbase is "under American control," and that even senior Pakistan Army officers are not allowed to interfere. The claim comes days after India’s precision strike on the same base during Operation Sindoor, launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack.
:
:
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[Rakesh]

Ex BRF oldie Sunil S conjectures in other places:

1. IAF hitting PAF precisely is bad news... for India, as this means that Pak now knows their nukes and critical nodes are insecure, and this knowledge will have consequences on security paradigm.

2. IAF possibly messed up hitting Kirana hills... supposedly it was an abandoned site, but if they had actually kept fissile materials there, this hit was not intended, and hence a "targeting imprecision" by IAF.

The resulting freak out makes things even more on a hair trigger alert

Where does he blog now? Indianmavericks is not updated.
I found it hard to agree with some of his analysis in the past.

He is certifiably crazy. Please do not believe his bokwas.

Severely paranoid and conjures up end-of-world scenarios in his head.

See this post of India's success at Kirana Hills ---> viewtopic.php?p=2650495#p2650495

[gakakkad]

Lots of pakee takleef related to IWT now felt . Yawn etc are reporting water levels dropping significantly.
Also we need to follow the OSint pages related to BLA and Taliban . They are handing over the porkies their tashreefs with FPV drones etc .

[prashantsharma]

There is a YT channel called Ate Chuet run by a former French Navy Rafale pilot. Some useful tid-bits of info such as that the Scalp can be fired from low altitude. The missile then climbs to the cruising altitude that has been programmed for that mission. This is one more reason why I would be very surprised if we did infact lost a Rafale of the first night. Lots of other stuff in his videos, some of which rhymes with the second word of the channel's name.

[Rakesh]

All is not well with India-France ties. In the same Shangri La conference Macron came up with an obnoxious == reference to Op Sindoor and I don’t know why Indian media didn’t go to town on that

Of late India (SJ) had been quite loud in putting the euros in there place. Maybe the bonhomie with Trump and straight talk vs Europe suggests a move closer to the US. I think trade deal and possiblity of f35 production might be on the cards ...

Here we go again

First it was Rahul Gandhi doing yeoman service to the nation, by raking up the Rafale issue. After two verdicts in the Supreme Court of India - clearing the Rafale deal - now it is pin drop silence over that bokwas.

Now peddle Pak propaganda that India-France relations are not well.

So much for all is not well with India - France ties ---> viewtopic.php?p=2650821#p2650821

France just signed a deal with the very same company in India, that was set to assemble the F-21 and "save" India.

The hurt to the H&D of the "heaven-known-as-America" goes really deep.

P.S. A reportedly "obnoxious" comment by Macron, spells all is not well with India-France ties. By that logic, India-US relations must be in the shitter...with Donald Trump's verbal diarrhea post Op Sindoor. The level of hypocrisy is amazing.

[gakakkad]

Prashant , ate chute dude is known to be a Chinese agent and is in fact on trial in France right now for that.

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/202 ... with-china

[prashantsharma]

Prashant , ate chute dude is known to be a Chinese agent and is in fact on trial in France right now for that.

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/202 ... with-china

Hope he goes to jail

[Rishi]

Where does he blog now? Indianmavericks is not updated.
I found it hard to agree with some of his analysis in the past.

He is certifiably crazy. Please do not believe his bokwas.

Severely paranoid and conjures up end-of-world scenarios in his head.

See this post of India's success at Kirana Hills ---> viewtopic.php?p=2650495#p2650495

Rakesh I hear you. But isn't it always been known that attacking nuke infrastructure was reddest of red lines? Even if it was at an undeclared facility?

[gakakkad]

^ we categorically denied that we didn't hit kirana hills , whatever may or may not be there .

We need to realize one thing about the porkies . The only red line they have is h&d . Blow up their airbases etc all good as long as they can spin it as a "victory" to their own people .

I'd argue that's a good thing .

Also pakees don't have a no first use policy . Not even on paper . If they weren't nook nude they would have used one .

[Prem Kumar]

Take Paki news about "additional sites being hit", "civilian areas being hit", "nuke storage being hit" with a huge load of salt - even if some of these news makes us feel good

1) They are certainly psy-ops to show India in bad light (hitting civilians)
2) They are an excuse for any dirty attacks they may try on our nuke facilities like say BARC. This need not be a direct attack but can also be the work of a sleeper module or a Ukraine-style special ops

We have certainly set the cat among the pigeons and have to wargame the scenarios that will emerge from this

[LakshmanPST]

The reason why India said Operation Sindoor is not concluded makes sense when we see the IWT...
I guess India is expecting a military response from Pak after things start effecting Pak agriculture on ground...

[bala]

Just to be clear, both India and Pak have a nuke list of sites exchanged. Kirana hills is not on the list. Many of sites that India hit is based on intelligence of hidden sites. The US and China are entangled in these hidden sites and have not revealed anything to the world at large. In a war, everything is fair game including their nuclear sites and top leadership locations. India just demonstrated to the world that they can take out anything in Pak land precisely without crossing the International boundary or LoC, Pak land has no place to hide. BTW IAEA only monitors declared peaceful nuclear sites not nuclear weapons and therefore their reports on radiation leaks is limited to declared sites.

Many international analyst are commenting that effectively Pak land has been stripped out of the nuclear option. Pak used the nuclear threat as a blackmail tool to conduct terrorism on Indian soil. That threat is completely disappeared for the time being. The International agencies/think tanks and others have been on a drumbeat of the "awesomeness of Pak nuclear weapons" and in fact have been touting them to be more than India's. The US has some shady stuff with Pak (maybe elaborate monitoring of India) land and I would not put it past them that have parked some nuke devices like they do with Nato nations. This is all secret and never disclosed and no can really monitor such shady stuff. China also has some shady stuff that they did not disclose in Skardu which got hit in Sindoor. Worse still for the chinese is that their maal is rubbish crap and does not work as advertized.

[Rakesh]

Rakesh I hear you. But isn't it always been known that attacking nuke infrastructure was reddest of red lines? Even if it was at an undeclared facility?

What we know;

1) Kirana Hills and other locations in Pakistan were used to store nuclear weapons.

2) Kirana Hills and other locations in Pakistan were attacked during Op Sindoor.

3) India has officially denied attacking these locations, but there is clear video evidence of these sites being attacked.

- But how does one explain the videos of the missile strikes at these locations in Pakistan?

- Now unless Pakistan attacked its own nuclear facilities (why?), then question then remains...who attacked these locations during the events of Op Sindoor? Unkil? China? But do either of these nations seem plausible? What is the net positive for them?

- Why were villages around Kirana Hills being evacuated, post the strike?

If Major General Narayanan is to be believed, than the facilities that have been struck are unusable for a 1,000 years. Good Luck Pakistan.

[Rakesh]

The reason why India said Operation Sindoor is not concluded makes sense when we see the IWT...
I guess India is expecting a military response from Pak after things start effecting Pak agriculture on ground...

Next military strike will come when Pak gets FC-31 this year. Deliveries are expected to begin in late summer.

[gakakkad]

after the drubbing they get they'd be pretty irrational (nothing to say they aren't) when they get a handful of unproven airframes china themselves have not inducted. Good for us if they decide to try something. They should know what we would do to them.

[Jay]

Rakesh I hear you. But isn't it always been known that attacking nuke infrastructure was reddest of red lines? Even if it was at an undeclared facility?

The red line was pakis touting their 'no first use' policy and then launching BM's at the nations capital. When you don't know if a BM launched at you is conventional or nuclear you attack the source. I don't know why you are hand wringing at our response.

[Rakesh]

after the drubbing they get they'd be pretty irrational (nothing to say they aren't) when they get a handful of unproven airframes china themselves have not inducted. Good for us if they decide to try something. They should know what we would do to them.

China is sending their latest maal to Pak to test via live military operations. Feedback from these conflicts (i.e. Op Sindoor) will be sent to the Chinese for further upgrades and improvements. This will be useful for the Chinese, during the military takeover of Taiwan.

Pak will gleefully "whore" itself and send its pilots to their death, if it gives them an opportunity to take revenge on the IAF. It does not matter if airframes are lost (which will be denied), as all skirmishes will be BVR engagements. Any FC-31 airframes shot down, will be promptly denied by Pak and wreckages quickly mopped up. They lost one high value asset (Erieye) in the air and also fighters (JF-17 and F-16) in the air and there are no wreckages. DGISPR handled all that quite well. Same story at Balakot in 2019 as well.

And just like in Op Sindoor, pre-gamed scenarios will already be set in place. They will be ready for the PR offensive, post the strike. The day after Op Sindoor, the PAF claimed that they shot down 3 Rafales, 1 Su-30MKI, 1 MiG-29UPG and 1 Heron UAV. An image of a shot down Rafale (Serial # BS001) was already on display by DGISPR bots. It has now been confirmed that the photo originated sometime in 2024!

P.S. In this conflict, the PAF came out the worst. The PN and the PA were largely untouched. The PAF will want to avenge for their losses. So they will certainly try something stupid again.

[rajkumar]

Cinematic depiction of Operation Sindoor

Operation Sindoor - Part 1



Operation Sindoor - Part 2



Operation Sindoor - Part 3



Operation Sindoor - Part 4

[gakakkad]

Wrt kirana hills , we do know that we whacked the Sargodha airbase which is within 15 miles of kirana hills . Could it be that a sam trying to intercept brahmos hit kirana hills ? And the villages were evacuated because of the airbase being hit and not for the hills ?

[ashishmact]

May be CDS deliberately created confusion. He weaved a mayajal . He made ppl think India lost aircraft. May be this was necessary to keep lid on the fact that India used decoys and what were lost were not fighters but decoy drones.

It is better to swallow the pride rather than reveal our tactics.

[williams]

Rakesh I hear you. But isn't it always been known that attacking nuke infrastructure was reddest of red lines? Even if it was at an undeclared facility?

What we know;

1) Kirana Hills and other locations in Pakistan were used to store nuclear weapons.

2) Kirana Hills and other locations in Pakistan were attacked during Op Sindoor.

3) India has officially denied attacking these locations, but there is clear video evidence of these sites being attacked.

- But how does one explain the videos of the missile strikes at these locations in Pakistan?

- Now unless Pakistan attacked its own nuclear facilities (why?), then question then remains...who attacked these locations during the events of Op Sindoor? Unkil? China? But do either of these nations seem plausible? What is the net positive for them?

- Why were villages around Kirana Hills being evacuated, post the strike?

If Major General Narayanan is to be believed, than the facilities that have been struck are unusable for a 1,000 years. Good Luck Pakistan.

it is possible we hit them to show our intent of what comes next. Pakis threw the towel after we did that. However, the missing piece of the puzzle is why we stopped, when we had the chance to do more. Of course we did not plan it, but since we were so successful, why not do more and take advantage of the situation? IMO, that is where geopolitics and domestic economic consideration is involved. One there is no point in beating the Paki dead horse and two we do want Americans to control their munna for some reason. The big loser here is the Chinese. The world saw the poor quality of Chinese mall. That means more export potential for our weapons and less market for the Chinese.

[RCase]

^ we categorically denied that we didn't hit TARGET kirana hills , whatever may or may not be there .
.

Sirji, if you listened carefully, the DGMAO maintained that they did not "TARGET" Kirana hills. If it got hit, so be it. More telling was the interview with Lt. Gen Khandare. His body language clearly indicated that Kirana hills was hit purposely, but for international reasons, India was not going to officially claim credit. Message was delivered where it was needed to be delivered.

[Amber G.]

Washington DC: On a question asked by his son Ishaan Tharoor of Washington Post about whether any country had asked the delegation for evidence of Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam attack and about Pakistan's repeated denials of any role in the attack, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor says, "

I'm very glad you raised this. I didn't plant it, I promise you. Very simply, no one had any doubt, and we were not asked for evidence. But the media have asked in two or three places. Let me say very clearly that India would not have done this without convincing evidence. But there were three particular reasons I want to draw your attention to all of you. The first is that we've had a 37-year pattern of repeated terror attacks from Pakistan, accompanied by repeated denials. I mean, Americans haven't forgotten that Pakistan didn't know, allegedly, where Osama bin Laden was until he was found in a Pakistani safe house right next to an army camp in a cantonment city. That's Pakistan. Mumbai attacks- they denied having anything to do with it...So we know what Pakistan's all about. They will dispatch terrorists, they will deny they did so until they're actually caught with red hands

<link>

[RCase]

it is possible we hit them to show our intent of what comes next. Pakis threw the towel after we did that. However, the missing piece of the puzzle is why we stopped, when we had the chance to do more. Of course we did not plan it, but since we were so successful, why not do more and take advantage of the situation? IMO, that is where geopolitics and domestic economic consideration is involved. One there is no point in beating the Paki dead horse and two we do want Americans to control their munna for some reason. The big loser here is the Chinese. The world saw the poor quality of Chinese mall. That means more export potential for our weapons and less market for the Chinese.

My personal take is there must have been extreme pressure from Unkil behind the scenes. Nur Khan, Sargodha, Bolari and Kirana Hills being taken out probably required Unkil to cover up some uncomfortable stuff and needed breathing space. Based on news and interviews, it appears that if the kinetic action had continued for another 24 - 48 hr. the Navy would have unleashed its destructive power, crippling Karachi. It could also be possible that India might not have been fully prepared for the sudden collapse of the Paki state.

[V_Raman]

It could also be possible that India might not have been fully prepared for the sudden collapse of the Paki state.

The above my friends is the real reason why Pakistan survives and will continue to survive as a state! The day India thinks that can be handled - Pak will be balkanized...

[Nalla Baalu]

There exist a lot of clips/pictures of Shareef and co visiting air bases with displays of debris mostly consisting of UAV remnants. In those clips look for characteristic red/yellow debris of the high-speed target drone of interest. During early hours of the operations (cannotrecall if it was the first or second day), there was a curious picture doing rounds on social media: debris of a red colored UAV with its name in characteristic slanted font still visible.

If Pak hit decoys and not the aircraft should decoy debris be findable? Or is the decoy debris of a much smaller quantity?

[vaibhavs]

May be CDS deliberately created confusion. He weaved a mayajal . He made ppl think India lost aircraft. May be this was necessary to keep lid on the fact that India used decoys and what were lost were not fighters but decoy drones.

It is better to swallow the pride rather than reveal our tactics.

Vishnu Som is on record stating that we have lost a Rafale. We have between 2-4 losses which is absolutely fine even if the operation finished on May 7th itself. But what followed was way beyond at least my imagination. The impunity with which we were bombing their airbases and took their Airforce completely out of the equation was mind boggling. I think even our armed forces did not have an idea that Pak would fold so easily.

[Bharat]

it is possible we hit them to show our intent of what comes next. Pakis threw the towel after we did that. However, the missing piece of the puzzle is why we stopped, when we had the chance to do more. Of course we did not plan it, but since we were so successful, why not do more and take advantage of the situation? IMO, that is where geopolitics and domestic economic consideration is involved. One there is no point in beating the Paki dead horse and two we do want Americans to control their munna for some reason. The big loser here is the Chinese. The world saw the poor quality of Chinese mall. That means more export potential for our weapons and less market for the Chinese.

Probably because the primary goal was limited, calibrated and non-escalatory. India might have war-gamed, red teamed, and prepared a menu of responses based on Pakistan actions/reactions. This probably included an exit line if Pakistan called for ceasefire. If Pakistan had continued, then future India responses would still have been, again calibrated and proportionate. 2025 was a 2019+ response, which in itself was a 2016+ response. For sure, range of factors like geopolitics, economic as well as domestic would have factored into the decision.

GoI might have been genuinely scared of Indian media personalities and commentators losing their voice, and having brain aneurysms. Future breaking news would have been from hospital ICU's on news personalities bravely fighting but still reporting as it's their param dharm !


Jokes aside, the national security apparatus will always be hesitant of overkill and moving strategic objectives and goalposts during a conflict.