Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Russia probably thought Ukraine would collapse in weeks, and likewise Israel with Hamas. To keep a definite though limited objective, to achieve it so rapidly and to not get pulled into a prolonged conflict, IMO, is brilliant.

[Rakesh]

CDS Sahab needs to take a cue from Shahi Tharoor on how to answer "gotcha" questions....

VIDEO: https://x.com/ANI/status/1930353521637109880 ----> WATCH | Washington, DC | "We're not military folks, and our military is the only ones who really keep track of all of these things. But, look what happened on the night that turned out to be the last night of the conflict... Just yesterday, the Pakistanis publicly admitted that Indian strikes were so wide-ranging and effective that they struck from as far as Hyderabad and South Pakistan to Peshawar in the northwest. So it looks very clear that whatever damage the Pakistanis believe they may have inflicted on India, it wasn't sufficient to prevent India from inflicting such extensive damage on Pakistan that they decided to request us to stop, which we're very happy to do..." says Congress MP Shashi Tharoor reacting to the speculations of how many aircraft India has lost.

[Rakesh]

9 Pakistani Aircraft Were Destroyed In Operation Sindoor Strikes
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/9-pakis ... _topscroll
04 June 2025

According to sources, a post-conflict assessment of the military engagement in early May has revealed heavy damage to Pakistani aerial and ground military assets.

[Manish_P]

CDS Sahab needs to take a cue from Shahi Tharoor on how to answer "gotcha" questions....
...

He is good at his primary job, as it should be.

The MoD should appoint media savvy spokespersons to handle ALL media communications and interactions.

[Vayutuvan]

^^^ Russia probably thought Ukraine would collapse in weeks, and likewise Israel with Hamas. To keep a definite though limited objective, to achieve it so rapidly and to not get pulled into a prolonged conflict, IMO, is brilliant.

In the latter example, Hamas indeed has come to its knees. Had not Russia not pulled their punches in the starting days, IOW been brutal, then Pukraine would have folded. It is still not looking good for Pukraine.

It is too early to celebrate. But then Ukraine supporting Bruxxels Eurotrash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurotrash_(term) would not stop warmongering till Ukraine is destroyed. Trump's overconfidence did not help either.

[Amber G.]

Russia probably thought Ukraine would collapse in weeks, and likewise Israel with Hamas. To keep a definite though limited objective, to achieve it so rapidly and to not get pulled into a prolonged conflict, IMO, is brilliant.

Absolutely agree — having a clear, well-defined, and realistically achievable objective is crucial in any military conflict. It gives the armed forces purpose, keeps morale high, and aligns political, strategic, and operational efforts. The lack of such clarity has derailed many past conflicts — Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan — where objectives kept shifting or were too vague, leading to prolonged entanglements and public disillusionment.

By contrast, going in with a focused, limited goal and the resolve to achieve it quickly, as you point out, is not just efficient — it’s smart statecraft. It avoids mission creep, preserves resources, and maintains both domestic and international legitimacy. A brilliant approach, indeed

[sanjaykumar]

Pakistanis are more correct than they realise that India cannot afford to waste resources or be distracted from high economic growth rates.

Pakistan is not that important for India. And yes it needs to conserve materiel resources for another conflict on the Tibet border, which is inevitable.

[Manish_P]

...
The lack of such clarity has derailed many past conflicts — Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan — where objectives kept shifting or were too vague, leading to prolonged entanglements and public disillusionment....
...

Agree with your statement, however there is a nuance with regards to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan in that by the time the US disengaged from the war against them they were left in no position to effectively hit back at the US.

Israel against hamas this time also seems to be wanting to make sure that the jihadis are at least degraded to insignificance, if not wiped out entirely

[bala]

The Chinese don't know what hit them after Sindoor but their worldwide image is torn to shreds by India's superior weapons and equipment. The illusion of china strong is shattered. Pak land depends entirely on China maal since the US supplied ones cannot be used in war against India. Stock prices of Chinese defence equipment manufacturers in China witnessed selling on few days after following the ceasefire declared by India and Pakistan. China supplied Pakistan with fighter jets and missiles, among other defence capabilities. The sharp drop in stock prices came after these stocks galloped for a few days. In contrast, the stock prices of companies within the Dassault group from France, the makers of the Rafale fighter jets that India possesses, closed up to 0.9% higher.

The low quality Chinese HQ9 air radars, JF17 fighter jets and PL 15 missiles have become a laughing stock of the world. No one trusts them and those nations who have them are going to ditch them soon.

India Rips Into The Illusion Of Chinese Military Superiority
watch at your leisure: youtube.com/watch?v=3WHuxRu-FcU

[Amber G.]

Times Square illuminated with Liar Fraud Marshal Asim Munir - The deceiver with his two crooks - Zardari and Sharif! Bezatti of Munir at International level by Pakistani diaspora themselves after being defeated in Military confrontation by India badly.

[Amber G.]

.. Imagine 80 planes coming with 400 missiles .. we need something.. please..
Pakistan delegation in US is begging US to give them Air Defence System and Fighter jets to save themselves from Indian Jets which has advanced technology with which it destroyed their Airbases

[RCase]

Interview with Gen. Vinod Khandare.
Excellent insight into the planning and execution of Op Sindoor.
Explanation of the thought process of each stage of the operation escalation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=galGuayJbYw

[Vayutuvan]

It avoids mission creep, preserves resources, and maintains both domestic and international legitimacy. A brilliant approach, indeed

It works on paper and in MBA classrooms. All management jargon. But when the rubber hits the road and when there is smoke and smell of burning rubber, all these classroom warriors will run away. 99.99% babus are like that. It requires fighting men who went up the ranks either inthe CO or NCo hierarchy, who will not lose their cool and do not crack under pressure.

[sanjaykumar]

60,000 children pulled from the roobles?


How many times must I express my fear of the genetic damage done to this population due to its cultural preferences?

[Vayutuvan]

Agree with your statement, however there is a nuance with regards to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan in that by the time the US disengaged from the war against them they were left in no position to effectively hit back at the US.

Israel against hamas this time also seems to be wanting to make sure that the jihadis are at least degraded to insignificance, if not wiped out entirely

There is nothing to disagree with a generic statement made by the OP who ignored all the nuances. Even among the examples given there are spatiotemporal differences which will explain a lot of why they happened the way they happened.

Hasty generalizations are always wrong. Exceptions are the rule in any large scale conflict involving thousands of soldiers and advanced weaponry.

[drnayar]

60,000 children pulled from the roobles?


How many times must I express my fear of the genetic damage done to this population due to its cultural preferences?

60000 kids in their madarsas ..
Training for terrorism

[drnayar]

.. Imagine 80 planes coming with 400 missiles .. we need something.. please..
Pakistan delegation in US is begging US to give them Air Defence System and Fighter jets to save themselves from Indian Jets which has advanced technology with which it destroyed their Airbases

What happened to their "we won /defeated India " narrative..lol

[RCase]

.. Imagine 80 planes coming with 400 missiles .. we need something.. please..
Pakistan delegation in US is begging US to give them Air Defence System and Fighter jets to save themselves from Indian Jets which has advanced technology with which it destroyed their Airbases

[red hat]
Due to Hafiz Ass Manure's duas and Allah ke fazal-o-karam, 350 missiles were caught by farishtas working fast and furious and only about 50 landed on innocent civilians whose iman was weak. The dushman had pundits doing puja and powerful mantar (sic) before sending in their jets.
[/red hat]

[V_Raman]

This is a new high for Paki begging!!

[Manish_P]

Agree with your statement, however there is a nuance with regards to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan in that by the time the US disengaged from the war against them they were left in no position to effectively hit back at the US.

Israel against hamas this time also seems to be wanting to make sure that the jihadis are at least degraded to insignificance, if not wiped out entirely

There is nothing to disagree with a generic statement made by the OP who ignored all the nuances. Even among the examples given there are spatiotemporal differences which will explain a lot of why they happened the way they happened.

Hasty generalizations are always wrong. Exceptions are the rule in any large scale conflict involving thousands of soldiers and advanced weaponry.

Sir, begging your pardon, but are you related to Sashi Tharoor by any chance...

Or are you Shri Tharoor himself in incognito mode

[Vayutuvan]

Sir, begging your pardon, but are you related to Sashi Tharoor by any chance...
Or are you Shri Tharoor himself in incognito mode

I am leaning towards taking the above repartee as an insult unless you say it is a compliment. If it is the latter my dear sir, please snap out of the hypnotic trance you were put into by that charlatan.

[ramana]

Today marks one month after Operation Sindoor.

[Vayutuvan]

Today marks one month after Operation Sindoor.

In these 30 days, geopolitics in the subcontinent has changed drastically. Hopefully Bharat can keep the overall pressure up till Shittistan implodes. IWT abrogation would be one pressure point. The other is indigenization of weapons platforms and over all progress in the economic sphere.

[VinodTK]

‘Political will was game-changer’

General Ved Prakash Malik was the Army Chief from 1997 to 2000. He was commissioned into the 3rd Sikh Light Infantry in 1959. He is known for overseeing the planning and execution of Operation Vijay during the Kargil War.

The officer received the Ati Vishisht Seva Medal and the Param Vishisht Seva Medal for his military service. In an exclusive interaction with Sushil Kumar The Statesman, he talked about Operation Sindoor, Pakistan celebrating a ‘fake’ win, US President Donald Trump wanting to take credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

Q. How do you look at India’s military action launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack?

A. We have adopted a more active approach against terrorism from 2016 onwards, after the Uri attack following which a surgical strike was done. It had the sanction of the political authority. Earlier, even if we were to cross the Line of Control, there would be no political sanction, but 2016 was the first time that the Indian armed forces had sanction from the political authority, and then in 2019, when the Balakot strike happened, it was the second time that the armed forces were granted permission to strike back in Pakistan territory.

I would say political sanction is the main thing that made Operation Sindoor entirely different. This time, not only were diplomatic and economic sanctions imposed, but the kinetic action was also undertaken on the intervening night of May 6 and 7. So, it was a different approach. I would say although the target initially was only the camps of terrorists but when they provoked us, we had to carry out the action of hitting their military bases. It was a more assertive action, wanting to give a stronger message than the earlier ones, and it was effective as it showcased our capabilities, weapons systems and the kind of advancement that has taken place in the armed forces. A good action but now it has to be seen how effective the military operation has been, and whether the message of deterrence has been conveyed to Pakistan.

Q. Some people in Pakistan believe they have won the war against India. They are celebrating post Operation Sindoor. Your comments.

A. The Pakistan government and the Pakistani army want to save their image, which they have lost, and they are desperate to do it. That is why they are celebrating both politically as well as militarily. But the truth cannot remain hidden. Even when the Kargil war got over, they celebrated. However, it was a big setback to Pakistan. This time too, Pakistanis will gradually get to know it.

Q. Why did India never respond the way it did this time to attacks by forces backed and supported by Pakistan?

A. It is a political problem. The armed forces will do whatever they are told to do. People like me who have been fighting these kinds of wars have been of the opinion that organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-eMohammed are nothing else but proxies of the Pakistan government. They are all working for the ISI, and it is a part of the Pakistani army. Therefore, the state is fully involved. India realized it, and changed its policy. The political leadership of the country has now given a goal to the armed forces to carry out certain actions in Pakistan. A major change in the policy has taken place since 2016, and this time around there was a much stronger message to carry out these actions. Our whole aim is to stop Pakistan from indulging in a proxy war against India.

Q. Do you think India after declaring that any terror attack in future would be considered an “act of war” would end up attacking Pakistan?

A. As I said, the main aim is to ensure that they do not indulge in proxy war against us. So, it is a very strong message that has been sent to Pakistan, and I do not think it could have been stronger than this, that if you indulge in terrorist acts, it would be like inviting a war from India. But the other aspect of it is the preparation required. We have to be prepared all along, 24X7, that if a terrorist attack is taking place, whether it is being carried out by one or two terrorists or four terrorists, Pakistan would have it from India. Therefore, we need to be fully prepared. I feel that India should be spending more money to have that kind of preparedness.

Q. What are the lessons India may have learnt from the recent conflict with Pakistan?

A. After every action, there are lessons to be learnt. We generally do full enquiry, and I believe they (Indian armed forces) must be doing some inquiry. We should wait for some time, let the inquiry be over. Rest assured the lessons will be drawn, as we always do after every action.

Q. Many have questioned the timing of the ceasefire when India had an edge in the conflict.

A. It did come as a surprise to most of us. When you are at an advantageous position, you want to exploit the success, and I also have the same feeling that we should have continued for some more time, but it also depends on the national policy. Therefore, the proposal of ceasefire was accepted, otherwise we could have carried on some for more time. I, as a soldier, feel we should have hit them harder as they were not in position to respond.

Q. US President Donald Trump was the first to announce the ceasefire. Don’t you think the announcement should have come from the Indian side?

A. He does not have much credibility. He wanted to jump the gun and have the credit. The US tries to arm twist both India and Pakistan. Something like it was tried even during the Kargil war, and whatever the then US President Bill Clinton did with (the then Pakistan prime minister) Nawaz Sharif, we carried on with our actions till we completed our goals. So, I do not think one should take President Trump seriously on the matter. Reality is that a call was made by the Pakistani DGMO, and he requested for a ceasefire which was accepted by the (Indian) government. The fact that the Pakistanis were hit hard, forced them to seek a ceasefire.

Q. How do you look at India’s decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold since Pakistan has called it an act of war?

A. It has to be seen yet. We have to be prepared for all activities from their end. The Indus Waters Treaty has been one sided as we have been giving more than 80 per cent of water to Pakistan. Holding it in abeyance was considered earlier also. They cannot wage a conventional war against India because we are much stronger. They may create issues here and there, and we have to be prepared for all that. Pakistan cannot do much about it. We just have to guard our interests

[VinodTK]

A very good analysis on operation Sindoor by retired Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla j ( a strategic thinker and truly smart man).

[Bharadwaj]

Sandeep Unnithan's interview with the principal advisor to the MOD. Go to 28:40 and listen for a minute. The future of any so called strategic relationship with the U.S will become so very clear

[Haridas]

Where does he blog now? Indianmavericks is not updated.
I found it hard to agree with some of his analysis in the past.

He is certifiably crazy. Please do not believe his bokwas.

Severely paranoid and conjures up end-of-world scenarios in his head. .........

I find it amusing with current assessment in this forum of the crazy Sunil S. recalling his nonsense when I quit as webmaster of space and missile section of BRF some 17 yrs ago.

[madhu]

Different perspectives of why earthquake is happening so many in Pakistan.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/cq-v2xZLyC4?si=Q3MFk1LucWjP66hj[/youtube]
As per him it is engineered earthquake happening due to construction of subsurface bunkers for storing and moving nuclear warheads

[chetak]

The Chinese don't know what hit them after Sindoor but their worldwide image is torn to shreds by India's superior weapons and equipment. The illusion of china strong is shattered. Pak land depends entirely on China maal since the US supplied ones cannot be used in war against India. Stock prices of Chinese defence equipment manufacturers in China witnessed selling on few days after following the ceasefire declared by India and Pakistan. China supplied Pakistan with fighter jets and missiles, among other defence capabilities. The sharp drop in stock prices came after these stocks galloped for a few days. In contrast, the stock prices of companies within the Dassault group from France, the makers of the Rafale fighter jets that India possesses, closed up to 0.9% higher.

The low quality Chinese HQ9 air radars, JF17 fighter jets and PL 15 missiles have become a laughing stock of the world. No one trusts them and those nations who have them are going to ditch them soon.

India Rips Into The Illusion Of Chinese Military Superioritywatch at your leisure: youtube.com/watch?v=3WHuxRu-FcU

Shriman ji,

this "Pak land depends entirely on China maal since the US supplied ones cannot be used in war against India". is a very old and hoary chestnut, and a diktat that the pakis have never ever followed

their first choice has always been amriki maal. But they are desperately short of F-16 spares and so they have little to no option but to use them sparingly, under the current circumstances

this is where taqiya comes into use and the jihadis use the option all the time, and the amriki response (always) to such (mis)use is a gentle slap on the paki wrist, if at all.

[Agasthi]

Different perspectives of why earthquake is happening so many in Pakistan.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/cq-v2xZLyC4?si=Q3MFk1LucWjP66hj[/youtube]
As per him it is engineered earthquake happening due to construction of subsurface bunkers for storing and moving nuclear warheads

Thanks Madhu J! I had seen this video and set me trying to map the locations. Asked Chatgpt to consolidate (hoping its not compromised or anything) and the results are very interesting. From June 3, 12:00 AM every one hour there is a tremor until June 4 with 2-3 M and always around the Malir cantonment area at 40 km depth. It appears man-made.

IAF did report hitting an HQ-9 facility in Malir cantonment area and unlike others like Murid and Nur Khan, satellite imagery of this hasn't come out at all.

Google search says its called Induced seismicity and likely due to their blasting work or water being pumped in or out. And apparently, using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship you can deduce whether it is induced or natural. If someone knowledgeable can advise me further, I can try this further, google search throws a formula and value called b seems important.

Date Time (PKT) Magnitude Location (Relative to Karachi) Depth (km)
Jun-01 5:33 PM 3.6 Near Quaidabad 10
Jun-01 6:41 AM 3.2 Near Korangi 10
Jun-02 1:06 AM 3.2 Near Gadap Town 12
Jun-02 10:29 AM 3.2 Near Quaidabad 10
Jun-02 11:04 AM 3.2 Near Quaidabad 10
Jun-02 11:45 AM 3.1 40 km SE of Malir 10
Jun-02 12:17 PM 2.2 5 km SE of Malir 29
Jun-02 1:11 PM 2.4 11 km E of Malir 188
Jun-02 1:38 PM 2.9 Near DHA City 5
Jun-02 8:49 PM 3 30 km E of DHA 5
Jun-03 9:57 AM 2.8 15 km NE of Malir 40
Jun-03 12:23 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 12:03 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 1:05 AM 3.2 Near Gadap Town 12
Jun-03 2:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 3:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 4:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 5:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 6:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 7:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 8:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 9:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 10:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 11:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 12:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 1:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 2:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 3:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 4:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 5:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 6:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 7:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 8:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 9:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 10:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-03 11:00 PM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 12:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 1:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 2:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 3:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 4:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 5:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 6:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 7:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 8:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 9:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 10:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 11:00 AM 2.6 Near Malir 40
Jun-04 12:00 PM 2.8 Near Malir 40

[gakakkad]

^ there should be above ground evidence of such construction. I imagine it would need massive drills and earth movers and such . So porkis even have that or even the electricity generation capacity to dig that deep ? It's something even companies like l&t are capable of doing but won't find it easy . Find it hard to believe that pakees can build that . Chicaoms would help but this isn't something that can be done without any EOS evidence.

[Zynda]

So in the recent podcast of Control Alt Defence by Vishnu Som & Shiv Aroor, the specifically talk about statements made by CDS at Singapore. Topics included IAF losses, "Tactical Mistakes" & Rational players statements. Just posting excerpts on the losses part:
1. Vishnu Som does mention that IAF lost at least one fighter jet. He does not categorically say it was a Rafale but does allude that it could be Rafale
2. He does mention, based on the info he has...it was probably a tactics issue and not equipment issue.
3. The air battle that happened on May 7 was one of the most sophisticated & large air battles and IAF planners had accounted for losses.
4. He did say that IAF reviewed what it faced, adapted the tactics and were able to gain superiority
5. He does mention that IAF was not grounded after the 1st night.
6. IAF & TSPAF are near peers

Unfortunately, #6 is not going to change much in next 10 years at least. TSP has two benefactors and both are technical powerhouses. The Chinese are prepared to arm TSP to the teeth to keep India in check and US are willing to do their parts as well (or look the other way). I think for our technologies to really mature and pull ahead, it is going to take 5-10 years. Until then we will be at the mercy of other players which may or may not be willing to give us the best tech or even allow us to exploit the tech capability full (deny us source codes etc.)

Most defense folks are saying that wind directions is changing in the South Block & moving towards more indigenous systems..,which hopefully translates in to more investments in to infra development, money for programs, more honest trails and faster induction cycles.

[gakakkad]

So the 120 plane bvr dogfight happened ?

[bala]

a diktat that the pakis have never ever followed ..

the amriki response (always) to such (mis)use is a gentle slap on the paki wrist, if at all.

Chetak saar, there is gulf between Theory and Practice, which is the norm by the Super Powerahs. A fly or mosquito like Pak land is gently slapped since they don't want to lose the pesky thing. Sindoor has shown that the hegemons like US/China are batting with useless faulty equipment given to their munna and India has smashed through the charade effectively. The other drumbeat of nuclear flashpoint has also vanished in a flash by Sindoor, "thank you for letting us know that it is nuclear" - paraphrasing AM Bharthi.

[Hriday]

A few question on this collab.
Why is Russia not using Brahmos in the fight in Ukraine? Yes it is a joint missile production after all but no use so far.
If Russia is using a local version based on P800 Oniks then how has been the performance of that missile in the Ukraine theater?
Is it being intercepted by anti missile defences Patriot yada yada? If so what is make Brahmos different if anything? The specs between P800 and Brahmos seem similar 2.9 Mach /advanced guidance and S loop before termination. Yes we have seen Brahmos be almost invincible in the IndoPak theater but can we rightfully extend this performance claim worldwide?

Cross posted from missile thread. First thing is P800 is an anti ship missile, so would be very limited in using as land attacking missile. Second thing is Brahmos is expensive. Third is as discussed in the Indian missile thread Russia is unhappy with the progress made by India in modification of P800 missile and even did some retaliatory moves. So it could be an ego issue for them to buy Indian version when Russians are proud of their technology. Now some data about P800 missile performance in Ukraine war.

See 1.18 minutes video of QUWA military analyst (Pakistani) in the link below.
https://x.com/DfIlite/status/1931268334 ... YY2AA&s=19

As per the video, P800 is in use in Ukraine war since 2022 and they believe that as per reports only 6% of them were intercepted! And QUWA further says that,
1. Brahmos is a more advanced variant.
2. Indian strike was very very limited but still caused massive damage.
3. It changed the whole dynamic of the situation where deterrence doesn't exist..

4. No need to go to nuclear threshold because India can cause huge damage with their conventional weapons.

5. Had the war continued India could have easily disabled entire Pakistan airforce by destroying the airbases.

6. Forget about Pakistan airforce, India could have even stop the movement of assets on the ground.

[Amber G.]

Different perspectives of why earthquake is happening so many in Pakistan.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/cq-v2xZLyC4?si=Q3MFk1LucWjP66hj[/youtube]
As per him it is engineered earthquake happening due to construction of subsurface bunkers for storing and moving nuclear warheads

(It may seem like repeating what I posted before but after seeing the video, here I post again )

Reality Check from basic scientific perspective:

While the post (and the video) attempts to draw dramatic geopolitical conclusions from clustered seismic events in Karachi, it's largely speculative and borders on conspiracy thinking. Here’s why:

1. Magnitude 1.5 to 3.6 Quakes Are Not Rare:

Yes, earthquake swarms in this magnitude range are not unusual in tectonically active or stress-prone regions. Karachi lies near the triple junction of the Indian, Eurasian, and Arabian plates, and though it's not a high-risk seismic zone like northern Pakistan, low-magnitude tremors do occur and have been reported historically. Swarms like these can happen due to minor fault adjustments, fluid movement underground, or even urban stress redistribution.

(For quick estimation, using standard available data for Karachi/Sindh region about a daily frequency of small tremors (M1.5–3.6) is normal The seismic catalog I saw for notable quakes (M3+), are less frequent (1/year for Karachi, ~20/year for Sindh) but the tiny ones—which constitute most of the earthquake count—happen daily, far outpacing the sampling of that public datasets)

2. We Have Global Seismic Coverage

There are hundreds of seismic stations worldwide, including dense arrays in India, operated by agencies like: India’s National Center for Seismology (NCS), USGS, CTBTO's International Monitoring System (IMS)

These detect precise waveforms and depths. Any unusual underground explosion — even subcritical — leaves a seismic fingerprint distinguishable from natural tectonic tremors. If any event hinted at human-induced underground activity, analysts would flag it quickly.

3. Radiation Monitoring Makes Covert Testing Nearly Impossible

Even subcritical nuclear experiments, ( not involving chain reactions), often require containment and shielding. Radiation sensors, including Indian and international systems, would detect trace isotopes or anomalies if anything nuclear was happening beneath Karachi.

From basic physics viewpoint , I’d say this theory is speculative at best, and at worst, a classic case of over-interpreting coincidence. Natural quake swarms + dense urban/military zones ≠ covert nuclear activity. The science just doesn’t support it.

[bala]

Abhijit I Mitra says that India has taken away Pak land's capability to launch nukes on India. Nur khan C&C vaporized, setting them back at least 10 yrs in stone age. Getting that back within a year is next to impossible for Pak land. The training and clearance in security for the folks who man such things are so stringent that it would take 10 yrs. Of course, India took out other strategic locations in Kirana and other places. Maybe the Pakis set off their experimental nukes (the explosives part of the dirty bomb) and caused the multiple earthquakes.

No more nuclear blackmail by Pak land. No more terror attack, no more proof of your operations are required, India will bomb your nation back into the stone age if there is one more such stunt.

Indrajaal an indian company created many of the anti-drone systems. This has been integrated into Akash Teer.
There is some gyan about how to deal with stealth: distributed infrared sensor and a david sling missile which has dolphin shaped radar with infrared/video sensor.

Watch in leisure time: youtube.com/watch?v=LIbyKBgJlig

[Amber G.]

<snip>
Thanks Madhu J! I had seen this video and set me trying to map the locations. .

Google search says its called Induced seismicity and likely due to their blasting work or water being pumped in or out. And apparently, using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship you can deduce whether it is induced or natural. If someone knowledgeable can advise me further, I can try this further, google search throws a formula and value called b seems important.

<snip>

Thanks. This is a good opportunity to walk through both the science and skepticism with a balanced, informed response. Let me attempt to answer questions: (Long reply - read if interested - ignore it may have too much details)

Here's a physicist's-level perspective:

What’s valid:
Induced seismicity is real. Human activities like: blasting, deep fluid injection or extraction (e.g., fracking, mining, dam reservoirs) can cause earthquake swarms, especially at shallow-to-intermediate depths.

The idea that regular hourly events near a specific location might be non-natural is not far-fetched and worth checking, particularly if they cluster in time, location, and depth.

The Gutenberg–Richter relationship (more below) is a recognized tool to assess whether a swarm follows natural earthquake scaling or shows anomalies.

What's speculative or unsupported (IMO):
"40 km depth" being man-made is very unlikely.
Most induced quakes are shallow (typically 0–5 km, sometimes 10–15 km).

40 km is deep into the lower crust or upper mantle — far beyond where humans can directly influence via blasting or fluid movement.

The reference to IAF hitting an HQ-9 site is unverified and highly speculative. If true, it would be a major international incident; if false, it fuels conspiracy thinking.

Absence of satellite imagery, IMO doesn’t confirm anything. Not every location has fresh, public, or high-resolution data available. Also, it takes time for commercial platforms (like Sentinel or Planet Labs) to update.

What Is the Gutenberg–Richter Relationship?

This is a statistical relationship used in seismology to describe how frequently earthquakes of different magnitudes occur in a given region.

The formula:
𝑙𝑜𝑔₁₀𝑁 = a - bM
⁡
Where:
N = number of earthquakes above magnitude
a = a constant related to overall activity rate in the region
b = the "b-value", indicating the relative frequency of small vs large quakes


Natural tectonic sequences usually have

b≈1 — meaning there are ~10x as many M3s as M4s, ~10x as many M2s as M3s, and so on.

Induced seismicity often shows higher b-values (e.g. 1.3–2.0), indicating lots of small quakes but very few big ones.

So: if someone plots quake frequency vs magnitude and calculates the b-value, they can test whether the pattern is natural or artificially induced.

Also:

The hourly regularity and clustering around a military zone is worth noting, but the depth of 40 km strongly argues against human-induced origin.

IAF attack claims are highly speculative unless supported by evidence from official or reputable sources.

Induced seismicity and Gutenberg–Richter analysis are legitimate tools — if you are serious, you should:

Pull full quake catalog data (magnitudes, times, depths)

Plot a magnitude-frequency graph

Fit a Gutenberg-Richter line and estimate the b-value
Using a Python or Excel template is easy thing to do. Hope it helps

[madhu]

Thanks Amber ji, I had no data on depth of origin of these earthquake. As Agasthi ji has posted if it is even 5km deep then it's natural. Because deepest mine is some what 4km only.
Only question I have is is it good or bad for pakis.

I feel it's good because energy is getting dissipated continuously so no accumulation in turn no big magnitude earthquake. Is that right? Or is this prelude for bigger earthquake (which I doubt)

[Amber G.]

Pull full quake catalog data (magnitudes, times, depths)

Plot a magnitude-frequency graph

Fit a Gutenberg-Richter line and estimate the b-value
Using a Python or Excel template is easy thing to do. Hope it helps

FWIW the data Agasthi have posted using only "Jun-04 2:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40" types: (which looks too approximate and too odd/strange - selecting 36 quakes, alternating between 2.8 and 2.6 exactly. Half of them (18) are 2.8, Half of them (18) are 2.6) one gets:

A b-value of ~4.34 is very high — far above typical seismicity:

Natural tectonic zones: b ≈ 1.0
Induced quakes: b ≈ 1.3–2.0~
b=4.3 indicates: either very small, narrow-magnitude swarms or more likely artificial data truncation and/or poor resolution..not complete data.. etc..


IOW - the sequence is not tectonic, and may reflect either highly localized, controlled, or artificial activity — or what is more likely simply that the catalog is too narrow in magnitude range to apply this method reliably...

----

-- So I tried to look at the data myself..only thing I found >M3 was on June 1, 2025 - 3.6 ~10Km strongest in a swarm - but found no official record in USGS, (or even Pakistan PMD) yet a regular sequence of 2-3 events near Malir.. but let me look as it may take some more time for the data to appear for public..(If others know please let me know the data)..

But there are records of M2.6–3.4 earlier in the day on June 3 ( though the exact magnitudes and frequencies, I don't know yet) and per Dawn it caused enough concern to prompt evacuation of Malir jail.

(Tidbit - I monitor all earthquakes on time on my iPhone (have alarm set for higher value anywhere on the earth and lower value around where I live and I will get M2 value near Karachi when I get some time .. it's a nice app to have on your mobile )

---
Added later (Looking at the data etc) it looks like:

-Consistent with known tectonic patterns along the Landhi Fault, these low-magnitude quakes reflect normal stress adjustments in the crust. No extraordinary cause.