Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Nihat]

Brilliantly executed op by the Ukrainian armed forces. It needed a lot of ground support and the coordination of intelligence would provide a lot of military lessons. On the other hand, it's a huge loss for Russia considering the limited number of bombers available in their fleet.

Hard to imagine the US intelligence community had no role to play in it

[YashG]

Russia should launch 5-6 tactical nukes on major ukrainian city as this has been an attack on their nuclear deterrence and call off the clown show by NATO and Ukraine. Nothing will change for russia, they are already heavily sanctioned.

[Zynda]

Tactically, the recent Ukrainian Drone usage is genius. If we are to go by the events given on Twitter, these drones were assembled in Russia, transported using trucks to around 100m vicinity of target airbases, remotely launched & operated and targeted expensive bombers. Given how some of these bases are deep in Russian territory, communication with drones would not be possible without the use of Starlink (else some satellite based communication...I believe one French company was willing to offer their services when Elon cutoff the signals for a short period). Mostly it would be Starlink.

If Russia does not use kinetic methods to eliminate Starlink from its & possibly Ukrainian region, except Ukraine to come up with such ingenious high-profile attacks on Russia. I am sure the current Ops would have full blessing by many EU members & possible some passive support from US.

[williams]

Brilliantly executed op by the Ukrainian armed forces. It needed a lot of ground support and the coordination of intelligence would provide a lot of military lessons. On the other hand, it's a huge loss for Russia considering the limited number of bombers available in their fleet.

Hard to imagine the US intelligence community had no role to play in it

Trumpwa was frustrated that Russia is not listening to his so called overtures and hence would have sanctioned some enhanced ISR Support for Ukriane to destroy Russia's major delivery platforms. However this is a major escalation and we don't know how the Russians will react.

[Jarita]

Please be patient with me as I try and pen my thoughts around how the aftermath of #operationsindoor is very related to what happened between Russia and Ukraine. I have to give credit to our leaders and even some members of opposition who understood the wider game and put differences aside to save the civilization.
Later I will embellish this with pictures which will clearly tell the story.
1) Operation Sindoor would have been used to draw India into a long term conflict with Pakistan. Pakistan is just a proxy of the deep state and in this case the foolish country of China is also supporting them. You can already see how Pakistan is being fortified to provide a counter to India. This country exists as a sore for all of the geopolitical goals of the deep state in Asia.
2) The Indian government instead of making it about ego and pride terminated the operation instead of getting deeper into the trap as Putin did.
3) More than that, the Indian government offered face saving for Pakistan to prevent a brotherhood/ deep state led escalation. Everyone on the Indian side has taken a hit just so that Pakistan can pacify its masses and have a semblance of some victory. To that end, I believe there might be 1-2 sensible people on the Pakistani side as well.
4) If the Indian government and members of opposition had let ego and ability to pulverize Pakistan play, they would have walked into the same trap Putin walked into.
5) this speaks to the shocking maturity of Indian polity. And kudos

To that end I believe the last few months were a lot of theater and fakery to culminate into this outcome of the Cold War which still continues.

The biggest loser in this game will be China.

DRAMA



DRAMA in the richest house in the world


ALL good friends

[drnayar]

Brilliantly executed op by the Ukrainian armed forces. It needed a lot of ground support and the coordination of intelligence would provide a lot of military lessons. On the other hand, it's a huge loss for Russia considering the limited number of bombers available in their fleet.

Hard to imagine the US intelligence community had no role to play in it

Russia can do a false flag attack and launch tactical nukes at Kiev. The tamasha has gone long enough

[Yagnasri]

The UK's SAS or the US's Rangers, among others, special forces, carried out this attack. There were no such persons available in Ukraine even 18 months ago. The required intel must have come from the US. Otherwise, the extent of specific targeting is not possible without real-time and actionable intel.

[pravula]

The UK's SAS or the US's Rangers, among others, special forces, carried out this attack. There were no such persons available in Ukraine even 18 months ago. The required intel must have come from the US. Otherwise, the extent of specific targeting is not possible without real-time and actionable intel.

Which part was a spec op? It looks like it was a co-ordinated attack from vehicles that looked like civilians. As an example, here is noko's version, but looks like a truck:


And one with Hezbolla



Lot more here: https://www.twz.com/rocket-launcher-dis ... ng-in-iraq

This is a pure intelligence failure, nothing more.

[AkshaySG]

There is a hesitancy in giving Ukraine their chops when deserved, It seems every bungle up is by Kiev and Zelensky whereas every success is due to American and British support.

In the current climate neither US nor Brits are going to risk using their special forces on the ground for any such attack, They surely provide SIGNIT and other information however it is still up to the Ukrainians to execute on the mission which is no easy feat.

[prataparudra]

It's more than likely Pakees will try the same on India ..May be Drones should be banned for civilians

[prataparudra]

It's more than likely Pakees will try the same on India ..May be Drones should be banned for civilians

[RajeevK]

The UK's SAS or the US's Rangers, among others, special forces, carried out this attack..

I am sure Hollywood would come up with a film confirming your conjecture.

[nits]

Drone in recent times have become a headache for Military strategists - they come cheap, can-do massive damage and to counter them is expensive.

Limited time war one can still counter them (like sindoor) but long wars (Ukraine - Russia) counter mechanism will be a drain on any military. In our context - China has massive capacity to develop drones ( link)

Need of the hour is we develop a cost-efficient mechanism which interferes with their network / comms and cook them up instead of exploding them.

Wish list - Hack them and send back to enemy country

[bala]

An indian perspective of drone attack by Ukraine on Russian airbases. The retribution from Russia could be anything.

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan I Ukraine Hits Russian Airbases, Russia's Respocse, Trump's Plan I Aadi



// we can learn some lessons from such tactics. All prime aircraft assets need to be under cover not in the open, securing them is highly important. India has to spend money to ensure this.

[williams]

Drone in recent times have become a headache for Military strategists - they come cheap, can-do massive damage and to counter them is expensive.

Limited time war one can still counter them (like sindoor) but long wars (Ukraine - Russia) counter mechanism will be a drain on any military. In our context - China has massive capacity to develop drones ( link)

Need of the hour is we develop a cost-efficient mechanism which interferes with their network / comms and cook them up instead of exploding them.

Wish list - Hack them and send back to enemy country

IMO, it has nothing to do with limited vs long war. India has proven simple 40 mm guns like L-70 can be upgraded with network centric situational awareness and electro optics to destroys cheap drones with cheap tech. Fact is Ukraine attacked deep inside Russia. I mean 4000 km from the border. It is a massive intelligence failure to not detect these trucks moving inside the Russian territory for a long time. That means Ukraine did not do this alone but did this with the help of western intelligence agencies and their massive ISR capabilities. Russian base on the other hand was unprepared and probably lacks the needed air defence layers to protect their assets. They probably thought who is going to attack their bases near Mongolian border. Indian bases on the other hand are constantly under threat both by the jihadi Pakis and salami slicing Chinese. We have reasonable systems in place to control our border and shores. What needs to happen is review of these controls and making sure we secure every Indian base and major economic installations against such an attack. We also need to strengthen our internal intelligence networks to make sure we have early detection capability. And finally that is one of the reason, India planned for a limited offensive where other major powers have no chance to exploit the situation to contain Indian growth through a long drawn conflict. Russia on the other hand decided to go for a long drawn conflict and was ready to pay the price in blood and equipment losses. Ukraine decided to allow the west to use their country for a long drawn conflict with Russia. No matter what Russia is not going to give them back the territory lost and the west is going to slowly move on to another front.

[Tanaji]

Looks like the Ukranians are on a roll. They seem to have targetted the Crimea bridge with 1100kg of explosives using under sea drones again.

[Ambar]

Whatever support Ukraine is getting from NATO, they are absolutely punching well above their weight and making the Russians look like total amateurs! Half of Russian Baltic fleet is under water, 1/3rd of its strategic bombers gone, Crimean bridge support structure hit, high-profile assassinations of military and intelligence generals, attacks on strategic refineries thousands of miles within Russian border! All Russia can do is fire another volley of Iranian drones that don't hit targets and Medvedev to go on 'X' and threaten nuclear apocalypse again! If Putin is counting on attrition to out-flank Ukraine, then he is just as wrong as Hitler and his 'Operation Barbarossa'.

[Yagnasri]

I think SAS is very active and working in support of Ukraine.

[Avinandan]

It is surprising unbelievable that I had forecasted a similar crude version in the newbie thread few days back. Would appreciate if people could comment there by dissecting it , elaborating the flaws , fine tune it with insights gained from this Ukranian attack and improvise it a near fool proof scenario as an aggressor and also how one could defend or prevent against it.

Link : viewtopic.php?p=2649354#p2649354

[A_Gupta]

What is to protect an Indian coastal installation from a boat or container on a ship carrying drones just like the Ukrainian trucks did?

[Jay]

What is to protect an Indian coastal installation from a boat or container on a ship carrying drones just like the Ukrainian trucks did?

Nothing. A mini, programmable, AI infused drone with waypoints built in it is near unstoppable if its travelling below the horizon, hugging the terrain, and revealing itself only for a few seconds before hitting the target. How do you even prepare for this and be on alert stand-by 365 days, 24 hrs a day?

You can mitigate the eventual loss by hardening your structures, building redundancies, and building automation because no human can out compete a drone attack like this.

However, the big protection comes from your deterrence, and you capabilities/thirst to punish the perpetrator. If pakis know, when they carry a drone attack on an military base, India will be out for blood and they have to pay the price then that's the only deterrence/protection that might work.

[Manish_P]

...
Hard to imagine the US intelligence community had no role to play in it

Read somewhere that as per the nuclear treaties between the US and Russia the tactical delivery platforms were to be kept in open where they could be seen by satellite.

I don't know how accurate this info is. I mean SSBN platforms are deployed round the clock and they certainly don't advertise where they are at any time. Nor for that matter the B2 stealth bombers.

[pravula]

Russia had suspended their participation in New START treaty. They were out on the tarmac as they did not expect a sneak attack this far. Even a few ack-ack guns would have helped in this case. They have enough Tunguska around...

[Shameek]

Couple of YouTube videos with footage of the drone attack across multiple air bases. Some points to note:
- Tu-95, Tu-22, AN-12 and A-50 aircraft appear to be hit.
- The 2 A-50 aircraft seem to be non-operational - rust all over and missing engines.
- Lot of aircraft had tires placed on them. Not sure how that is supposed to prevent attacks or if there was any other purpose.
- Even after multiple aircraft were burning, there are no visible personnel in any video.
- No apparent anti-drone action visible.
- Russia also seems to have lost an SU-35 recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LK1PWoHzSw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne0V_C6Q2AQ

[Manish_P]

...
- Lot of aircraft had tires placed on them. Not sure how that is supposed to prevent attacks or if there was any other purpose.
...

Those are to confuse image mapping sensors and algorithms.

[Shameek]

^^ Thanks, does not seem to have had any effect. But these were also FPV drones flown by operators so would not work in this scenario.