Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[A_Gupta]

Dunno who this "China Observer" outfit is, but thoroughly thadaals China.
https://youtu.be/QZBjTmp8onY?si=Oq1KRNoLT1TQGA-4

Says that India blockaded Karachi port for 72 hours - under water, on the surface, in the air and in the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Says the target of the Indian navy was not Pakistan but to give a lesson to China.

[A_Gupta]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/iaf-ann ... 20June%208.

India has issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) for a major Indian Air Force (IAF) exercise scheduled to take place near the southern sector of the India-Pakistan International Border in Rajasthan from Saturday, June 7, to Sunday, June 8.

[RCase]

I think this PAUSE is for Unkil to get their stuff out of Pak. Possibly the deal India made with Unkil for pause of kinetic action is for Unkil to make Pak nuke nanga. Once Unkil takes out its maal, with even a slight spark India will probably do some kinetic action to destroy Pak mil infra. India has the advantage by having neutralized its AD, bombing runways, radars and AEWCs. Why allow them to rebuild their AD, buy new AEWCs and fighters?

[Amber G.]

added in my previous post about earthquake:

(Looking at the data etc) it looks like:

-Consistent with known tectonic patterns along the Landhi Fault, these low-magnitude quakes reflect normal stress adjustments in the crust. No extraordinary cause.

(A swarm of minor tremors (magnitudes 1.5–3.6, depths 2–188 km) has indeed shaken Karachi’s vicinity since June 1. I think (consistent with others) natural activity along local faults (notably Landhi - also nearby Thana Bula Khan), helping release tectonic stress . Few locations are 'interesting' but most tremors are shallow (some are very shallow 2km- might be fun to map them with defense sites ), which makes them more noticeable and may make even local news headlines ..)..

(Any way from the data I got about 30 values and finer magnitude list, best b-fit value is about .7..(which looks natural) (Or my data did not have *all* the small magnitude quakes - but b values >1 is suspicious)

[bala]

This is a good recap of the damage meted out by India to Pak land with photos. Bahawalpur damage is around 5 areas. There is an iconic hole that a brahmos made. Muridke damage is quite extensive. In the funeral, many Pak army lt. Col, Brigadier, Major even Lt. Gen, Maj Gen ranks were present and identified by India with names. One dude's father is a terrorist on US list. Targets taken out by IAF are shown. A map with strategic decimation of Pak land is presented. There are pictures of air defence radars destroyed per satellite. All airfields damage pictures with runway broken, storage facilities taken out. Bholari houses F-16 maal. One picture is per chinese satellite! Chaklala, Rahim Yar Khan, notam were issued for runways! Shebhaz which is Jacobabad was damaged. Sargodha airfield was hammered two runways. Kiranha hills is well know thanks to AM Bharti and now another kala chitta pahad, Attok was struck where there is a nuclear storage. One American official familiar with Pak Nuke stuff said that the PA's greatest fear was knocking of command and control center and India made that happen, congrats. US dept of energy has a picture. A PAF mirage 3 debris was found.

BTW PAF showed some pictures of damaged air runways of India, these were fake. The runways are fully operational and there is no damage.

Worth a watch.

Indian Forces have Finished Pakistan with Aadhi Achint in Jaipur Dialogues with Col Ajay Raina.

[Hriday]

All the border states did a civil defence mock drills for the second time on May 31. Can anyone comment on it?
At first look it looks like a waste of efforts.

[ramana]

Hindustan Times report on Operation Sindoor.
Worth posting in full.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 15417.html

[madhu]

FWIW the data Agasthi have posted using only "Jun-04 2:00 AM 2.8 Near Malir 40" types: (which looks too approximate and too odd/strange - selecting 36 quakes, alternating between 2.8 and 2.6 exactly. Half of them (18) are 2.8, Half of them (18) are 2.6) one gets:

A b-value of ~4.34 is very high — far above typical seismicity:

Natural tectonic zones: b ≈ 1.0
Induced quakes: b ≈ 1.3–2.0~
b=4.3 indicates: either very small, narrow-magnitude swarms or more likely artificial data truncation and/or poor resolution..not complete data.. etc.

Amber G, if we consider all the 49 data provided by Agasthi ji i am getting a b value of 1.2644 with R-squared = 0.9037. below is the code that i am using for you to verify

Code: Select all

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from collections import Counter
from scipy.stats import linregress

# Input magnitudes from your data
magnitudes = [
    3.6, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1, 2.2, 2.4, 2.9, 3.0, 
    2.8, 2.8, 2.6, 3.2, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 
    2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 
    2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 
    2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 2.6, 2.8, 
]

# Count magnitudes and compute cumulative frequency
mag_counts = Counter(magnitudes)
unique_mags = sorted(set(magnitudes))
cumulative_counts = []

for mag in unique_mags:
    cumulative_counts.append(sum(count for m, count in mag_counts.items() if m >= mag))

# Convert to numpy arrays
M = np.array(unique_mags)
N = np.array(cumulative_counts)
log_N = np.log10(N)

# Linear regression
slope, intercept, r_value, p_value, std_err = linregress(M, log_N)

# Gutenberg-Richter parameters
b_value = -slope
a_value = intercept

# Print values
print(f"Gutenberg–Richter parameters:")
print(f"a = {a_value:.4f}")
print(f"b = {b_value:.4f}")
print(f"R-squared = {r_value**2:.4f}")

# Plotting
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6))
plt.plot(M, log_N, 'bo', label='Observed')
plt.plot(M, intercept + slope*M, 'r-', label=f'Fit: logN = {intercept:.2f} - {abs(slope):.2f}M')
plt.xlabel('Magnitude (M)')
plt.ylabel('log₁₀(N ≥ M)')
plt.title('Gutenberg–Richter Relationship for Karachi Earthquakes')
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

[sanjayc]

All the border states did a civil defence mock drills for the second time on May 31. Can anyone comment on it?
At first look it looks like a waste of efforts.

Maybe Pakistan was planning a major terrorist strike. Indian intelligence got to know. This may have been a warning to Pakistan that Operation Sindoor is officially not over yet.

[chetak]

VI@WA

After a long night of talks mediated by India, we are pleased to announce that Donald and Elon have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire.

Congratulations to both of you for using common sense and great intelligence.

By the way, dinner is on us.

Come now, give us a smile!

[A_Gupta]

Question - if jihadi terrorism becomes too costly for Pakistan, will they focus next on drug trafficking?

This following is US-centered, so just providing it for the headline.

Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking as Irregular Warfare
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/06/01 ... r-warfare/

Pakistan seeks means of constant, irregular warfare with India. Pakistan already traffics drugs into Punjab, will that effort increase? How does India impose costs on Pakistan?

[Agasthi]

What’s valid:
Induced seismicity is real. Human activities like: blasting, deep fluid injection or extraction (e.g., fracking, mining, dam reservoirs) can cause earthquake swarms, especially at shallow-to-intermediate depths.

The Gutenberg–Richter relationship (more below) is a recognized tool to assess whether a swarm follows natural earthquake scaling or shows anomalies.

This is a statistical relationship used in seismology to describe how frequently earthquakes of different magnitudes occur in a given region.

The formula:
𝑙𝑜𝑔₁₀𝑁 = a - bM
⁡
Where:
N = number of earthquakes above magnitude
a = a constant related to overall activity rate in the region
b = the "b-value", indicating the relative frequency of small vs large quakes

Induced seismicity often shows higher b-values (e.g. 1.3–2.0), indicating lots of small quakes but very few big ones.

Thanks Amberji, please note that there was indeed an attack on Malir by IAF.

https://www.thenewsminute.com/news/mali ... nfirms-iaf

Madhu is getting 1.26, you have .7 and when I did the same using what is called aki method (b=Log10 e/Mean M - Min M) it comes around to .63.

Interestingly, one of the recorded tremors was near or below this coordinate on the earthquake website 24.870°N
67.630°E).
https://www.myearthquakealerts.com/eart ... 210812_3.0

Now, for some days I have been scouring around Karachi and found this site a bit odd (same coordinates as above)

<iframe src="https://www.google.com/map ... ></iframe>

A masjid complex (no minaret that i could see) off inhabited places, with a tall fence and tall buildings close to a dry river bed and a very good metalled one way road coming in from DHA. At least 6 to 7 of the tremors were near this compound (based on approx directions from news reports). But now one of the earthquake trackers has actually listed this site as where the tremors originated.

Given the b values are less than 1, it could well as be natural. However, if Madhu's estimates are correct, then this is a site of interest.

[madhu]

Given the b values are less than 1, it could well as be natural. However, if Madhu's estimates are correct, then this is a site of interest.

i feel there could be some issue in the way i am calculating. that's why i gave full code that i used to calculate the b value. personally i see that Karachi is a earthquake prone area with lots of recoded earthquake before too. it is good to cross check before believing in any of the conspiracy theory.

[Deans]

Question - if jihadi terrorism becomes too costly for Pakistan, will they focus next on drug trafficking?

This following is US-centered, so just providing it for the headline.

Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking as Irregular Warfare
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/06/01 ... r-warfare/

Pakistan seeks means of constant, irregular warfare with India. Pakistan already traffics drugs into Punjab, will that effort increase? How does India impose costs on Pakistan?

Pak has lost control over the source of drugs, which is Taliban controlled Afghanistan. They have a bigger drug problem than we do.

[gakakkad]

^ it is very important for India to maintain cordial working relationship with Afghans for that reason . We need to control where the drugs go and don't go.

[Rishi]

Current thoghts, based on read of info, disinfo and propaganda released so far, on the air war part of the conflict:

1. May 6/7, IAF had a sense of complacency (our birds were well protected and away from known threats and capabilities). Complacency perhaps because Eyrie(s) not on station or far away? (Perfect window to launch attack)

2. 2 or 3 sources say that there is belief that HQ9 / AD were the cause of all/any hits, and not A2A. However we know PL15s have been fired and found on our side.

3. PRC propaganda says HQ9 detected, transmitted location to AWACS which was "out of range" and which then gave firing instructions to PL15 carriers (JF17/J10s), which fired the PL15s (as now confirmed by Shishir Gupta at RMAX c. 200km range). D20s jammed and spoofed as usual.

3.5 Unknown is if PRC satellites have capability of real time surveillance to the level they can provide firring solutions... these could case a true "silent kill" solution

4. As per OSINT seeker analysis of PL15s recovered, the range is 25 km from target for it to "switch on" so very little time for target to react once pitbull.

(Comment: potential "surprise" was sensor fusion from satellites or HQ9 fire control radar, which Shishir Gupta says was the 250km range one, and there being 4 rather than the presumed 2 batteries. Complacency would come as HQ9 FCS detection may have one expecting AD missile launch and not a A2A as well as range of 150km away from nearest enemy BARCAP).

5. our reaction thence was SEAD/DEAD of C2 and C4I nodes, AD sites including HQ9 FCS which then blinded them.

6. Subsequent hits on Bholari and Jacobabad was to give the "kick in the nuts" and to wipe that smirk. S400 40N6E long range shots to splash some heavies (no evidence though)

This was a well war gamed trap, but they were perhaps not expecting the C4I node destructions which would have hurt immensely (as documented by Col Vinayak Bhat)

Implications:

1. We accelate our UCAV, Drone swarm and network fusion projects, as well as long-range hypersonics
2. Accelerate satellite capabilities
3. Next conflict starts with SEAD/DEAD and ASATs launches to blind the enemy

[bala]

There is the worrying trend of China and Pak collusion along with Iran. These nations are inimical to the world at large. Then there is the China Russia relationship with marked convergence after Ukraine. Russia has oil and gas resources which India is also benefitting. The China Russia relationship and the Russia India relationship is causing a RIC block which Lavrov and others have been citing publicly. However India and China are not friends but enemies in many spheres. The Rise of India in Asia will be at the expense of China going down. Many Chinese are aware of this equation and hence China is actively suppressing India's rise. Russia is ambivalent between India and China. However the Russians are also aware of the nature of relationship they have with India and China. With India they want to block US cozying up to India and in general are more cooperative in the weapons technology area with India. They also appreciate India being independent during the Ukraine crisis and rewarded India with discounted Russian oil. Russia has also been feeding technology into China, most weapon systems of China are a direct knock off from the Russian original. Chinese students go to Russia for higher education. The trade between Russia and China are balanced, russia providing oil and gas to China while China provides trinkets and cheapo electronics stuff to Russia. Both Russia and China exercise routinely with their militaries. Russia survived the Ukraine crisis due to China and India buying their oil and trading with them during these times.

After Op Sindoor, India and China are at odds due to china being behind Pak. Many of US's objections with India is due to India Russia relationship. India is straddling between US and Russia in many areas. The Quad is being used against China. India and US has deep relationship especially with people, many of India origin persons are dominating US tech and science. There is enough US high tech defence equipment inducted by India. India's rise is now predicated on catching up with high tech of the world. At the same time India needs to upgrade its infrastructure, people economy and overall India's economy. These are tall mountains to climb. India has shown some prowess in creating a robust Air Defence for Sindoor. India is in a precarious situation of getting things from US (high tech), Russia (oil, high tech), to a lesser extent China (manufacturing, capacity, supplies, etc). India has to navigate these intelligently. At the same time, International diplomacy is becoming transactional in nature. The US is with Pak due to hangover of Soviet US clash and of course they have the baton handed over to them by the Britshits. Fingering India is a common theme for both US and China. Pak will disintegrate on its own, baluchistan is on the verge. India should have a plan (in all domains including Military) against China to untangle Tibet away from China, this is the key for India to settle things with China. India has to step up this effort especially BD is not becoming a rug for both the US and China. BD is important since a toe hold there means that the India ocean will heat up in terms of a struggle between major powers.

Will India have a good plan to address all of the above, no more chalta-hai please. Pro active steps are required, take advantage of the success of Op Sindoor, the world now knows that India means business and knows how to conduct military affairs with precision and success. The India Navy is boss in the indian ocean, there were nearby ships of China and US, but Indian ones 200 nmile away solved the pirate issue. Srap IWT treaty (for good so Kangress does not revive it), block water, fund BLA and break up Pak, take out 200+ kms in himalaya/tibet area and tell china this is the new international boundary buzz off. Be highly transactional with the US and Euro, understand TINA wrt to China that they boxed themselves into. Global Manufacturing has to be moved into India from China, no other alternative. The G7 is going nowhere without India. Block China influence in India. There is so much material from Indian gurus like Chanakya to deal with tricky situations.

The Lt. Generals of India chat in PGurus:

Navigating Russia-China Relations Post Op Sindoor

[bala]

If you are wondering why Nur Khan is controlled by the Americans, read further. Nur Khan was destroyed by Op Sindoor by launching a brahmos right into the HVAC duct of 45 cm wide. The structure below was created to be bomb proof and guess the builder - GE, yes US. After the bombing and vaporization of C&C center Nur Khan, the Americans forbade the Pak Army near the site. Huh? Why?

You have to think like an American. Pak land is the ideal junction place between Afghanistan and Iran. Pak being Heeramandi under Zia allowed the US to build whatever and store whatever, it was for sale to anyone. During US El Presidente Nixon era Pak facilated US to talk with China and thereafter US co-opted China as its partner. Pak land was rewarded for being an Ataboy. Shortly thereafter the Soviet Union parked itself into Afghanistan and conducted covert/overt exercises. The US effectively established bases like it does elsewhere right in the middle of Pak land and stored any contingency stuff it needed just in case. It could send its personnel anytime and take of from Nur Khan in stealth mode and chup chaap conduct covert operations against Afghanistan or Iran. Well, a side benefit was it could also monitor what is happening next door to the east - India. China, after the US entangle, quickly rose up and its rise was at a stunning pace which is very unsettling to the US. Meanwhile the Chinese wanting a route to the Indian Ocean, tangled with Pak and went about CPEC. The US never minded such development, since China was paying its way and the US could find such roads convenient at a later stage. The Indian intelligence agencies were well aware of what was happening in Pak land. Daddy US was spreading its wing all over the place quietly and at the same time China was following its agenda which was okay with the US.

You now know why the US is upset with India. Op Sindoor blew all their cover operational base. This business of Pak nuclear C&C is all hogwash of the highest kind. The US and China were taking the world and India on a huge ride of nuclear deterrent threat and nuclear flashpoint. There is no Pak nukes, it is a charade. Indian intelligence knew exactly what was going on in Pak land and they blew a deep brahmos hole into Nur Khan. Thank you for letting us know it is nuclear!

Was CPEC an American Trap ? Col. Ajay Raina

[drnayar]

If porkis are nuke nude what on earth do they achieve from sabre rattling ?!.. maybe they like getting whipped ?? .. paki army has nothing to stand on . Literally zero credibility with their overseas awam. The ads at NY times square quite apt !!

[Amber G.]

Pakistan’s Washington Outreach Against India Backfires: Public Humiliation, Zero Traction

Karachi’s had 32 mild tremors since June 1, but instead of focusing on real seismic risks and telling us how the jinns are creating low b-values, Bilawal Bhutto and the gang seem more shaken by the idea of bad press than by tectonic shifts in USA. While the earth moves beneath their feet, they’re busy spinning stories and blaming “external forces”—maybe next they’ll say it's an Indian plot to jiggle their chai.

They are getting no traction and rightfully are humiliated...

[RCase]

Pakistan’s Washington Outreach Against India Backfires: Public Humiliation, Zero Traction
They are getting no traction and rightfully are humiliated...

Sirji, who said they went to do an outreach and get traction? These are the entitled Paki elites that wanted an excuse to do a 'tour of duty' at public expense in western countries. Probably loaded up on more designer wear.

[sanjaykumar]

I was impressed with their sartorial choice.

One could scarcely tell their moslem countrymen go hungry, that their children suffer malnutrition and stunting. Each one of the couture pieces could put a village’s children through school for a year.

Moslem priority is jihad. No sacrifice is too great for ghazwa e hind.
Attire is part of the battle. One must impress the white man.

[bala]

Contrast this Pak Billyboo guy and our own Shampoo boy in shudh clipped brit accent explaining to videshi US audience (poor RaGa he is going bonkers on shampoo boy for defending Muudiji in Videsh):

youtube.com/watch?v=I8TEIFbVRf4

[RCase]

The formula:
𝑙𝑜𝑔₁₀𝑁 = a - bM
⁡
Where:
N = number of earthquakes above magnitude
a = a constant related to overall activity rate in the region
b = the "b-value", indicating the relative frequency of small vs large quakes

Sirji - you are trying hard to provide formulae that is far beyond Paki madrasa math to show this is all due to Allah ka azaab. It is good for the Pakis to think every tremor is due to their atim bums. After all they have only Allah to fear, no?

As far as the Paki brain is considered your farmoola for the Paki awam should reads as:
𝑙𝑜𝑔₁₀𝑁 = a - bM
Paki Log Dus Numbri hain yani ki Atim-Bum Marne ki dhamki detehain.

[Vayutuvan]

I was impressed with their sartorial choice.

One could scarcely tell their moslem countrymen go hungry, that their children suffer malnutrition and stunting. Each one of the couture pieces could put a village’s children through school for a year.

Moslem priority is jihad. No sacrifice is too great for ghazwa e hind.
Attire is part of the battle. One must impress the white man.

Blowaal's girlfriend Heen-aa rabbani khar used to carry very expensive handbags costing $5000+.

[sanjaykumar]

This scum gives vulgarity a bad name.

Mental slaves of the firangi, white and Arab, and at a deeper level of the hindoos.

[Amber G.]

OT - I just got alarm - there is M 3.4 quake about 61km (depth 8km) from where I putting this post..

[Amber G.]

Okay here it goes .. I would put this in a blog or something like a serious article .. but thought I will put here..
(Long post Ignore if not interested )

--

Schrödinger’s Arsenal: My Quiet Warning About Pakistan’s Vanishing Nukes

I am not typically one for public commentary on sensitive matters. Most of my colleagues in the nuclear physics community—especially those of us still attending the old symposia in Geneva and occasional reunions in Los Alamos—prefer discretion. But after recent developments and under authorization from certain friends in the Closed-Circle Society for Strategic Isotope Control, I feel compelled to share what I know.

Because, as strange as it sounds: Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may never have existed in the way we assumed.

And this isn’t hearsay. It’s something I first suspected over four decades ago.

A Strange Beginning in Islamabad:

In 1980, influenced by Aman-ki-Asha, I spent a sabbatical year at the University of Islamabad, invited to assist in curriculum development for their nascent nuclear sciences department. It was a cordial environment—technically eager, politically tense. One of my lectures, an introductory seminar on neutron cross-sections, ended with a junior lecturer asking me with complete sincerity: “Proffesor, what is a barn? Is it where you store uranium?” (see Note **1)

They later stole my copy of Roy & Nigam’s Nuclear Physics—which I’m almost certain was photocopied en masse and referenced in multiple internal reports under the name “Roynigam Model.” (see Note **2). I didn’t realize it then, but this might have been the epistemological foundation of what we now call strategic ambiguity.

The Whisper Network:

Over the years, at closed-door workshops and behind chatham-house-rule panels, rumors grew. According to reliable contacts in our fraternity, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent wasn’t based on concrete yields or calibrated MIRVs—it was theoretical deterrence, constructed not from uranium or plutonium, but from quantum uncertainty and diplomatic momentum.

This isn’t metaphor. It’s how their strategic posture evolved: by creating a wavefunction of ambiguity, wherein the arsenal’s existence relied on the observer's belief, not on confirmable telemetry or isotopic analysis.(see note **3)

The Collapse:

The first red flag came just last week, when our analysis team noticed anomalous readings from Kirana Hills—seismic signatures inconsistent with any subcritical test, more akin to geological settling or controlled demolitions. We ran a spectral analysis assuming a boosted fission pulse; what we got looked like HVAC startup noise. (see note **4).

That’s when a colleague of mine—former IAEA field auditor with access to declassified archives—shared a chilling report: the launch authentication matrices had been formatted in WordPerfect. Even worse, some warhead documentation still referred to a “test configuration” using graphite dampers and proximity timers salvaged from early fax machines.(see note **5)

I wish I were making this up.

Strategic Schrödingerism:

And now, post-Nur Khan incident, we are forced to confront the unspoken conclusion: Pakistan’s deterrent exists in superposition. In the absence of a confirmable detonation, its operational status remains undefined. There’s no proof of non-existence—but also no empirical demonstration of capability beyond speculative sub-kiloton devices that may have been jointly managed or externally controlled.

In a recent high-level whiteboard session—one of those unofficial ones at the Alpine Physics Forum in Luzern—we began referring to this as the Schrödinger Doctrine.(see note **6 ).A strategic state in which warheads are both deployed and non-existent, depending on the political observer’s frame of reference.

This doctrine, I must emphasize, is not taught in any reputable strategic studies program. But it has become de facto doctrine in Islamabad.


The Supply Chain Issue:

One final note, which I’m now permitted to disclose: At least one batch of tritium ampoules, tagged for their warhead sustainment program, was misdirected during an interagency logistics operation and ended up in a commercial air cargo manifest routed through Doha, mislabeled as “laboratory fluid – perishable.” When it finally arrived in Rawalpindi three weeks later, its half-life had done its work—decay had brought it below usable threshold.(see note **7)

One internal joke, now circulating among physicists with clearance, is that Pakistan’s last deliverable warhead expired before its intended doctrine did.


My Warning

I share this not with malice, but with scientific sorrow. A deterrent based on uncertainty, illusion, and decaying infrastructure isn’t a weapon. It’s a belief system. And belief systems—especially those involving fissile material—make poor substitutes for controlled yields and confirmed engineering.

I urge fellow physicists, policy architects, and security analysts to revise their assumptions. We are not dealing with a conventional deterrent. We are dealing with what one of my colleagues termed “metaphysical megatonnage.”

A threat that exists—until you try to measure it.

Then, like all unstable states, it collapses.

Footnotes:

(Note **1) In nuclear physics, a barn is a unit of area (10⁻²⁴ cm²), used to express the effective cross-sectional area for nuclear reactions, especially neutron absorption. The term originated during the Manhattan Project as ironic slang, referencing something “as big as a barn door.” The Islamabad misinterpretation, though technically novel, reflects a persistent lexical confusion in programs where symbolic understanding has occasionally substituted for empirical methodology.

(Note **2) The “Roynigam Model,” as cited in internal notes recovered from the Kahuta complex, appears to be a loosely interpreted synthesis of classical scattering theory and loosely remembered oral summaries of Part I of Roy & Nigam’s 1959 textbook. Notably, several formulas in the documents retained their page numbers from the Xeroxed original.

(Note **3) This posture is distinct from traditional nuclear opacity as practiced by Israel, in that it lacks the material redundancy or delivery triads typically associated with credible ambiguity. Some have suggested it resembles more a quantum Bayesian deterrent, wherein belief updates occur probabilistically without new evidence. ↩

(Note **4) Specifically, the FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) of the signal returned a dominant frequency corresponding to 50 Hz, which matched the local power grid and not any known detonation profile. The signal also briefly modulated in sync with a local call-to-prayer broadcast, suggesting acoustic coupling rather than explosive energy release.

(Note **5) The “graphite dampers” were originally thought to be neutron moderators. Upon inspection, they were discovered to be repurposed ceiling fan blades with surface etching to mimic boron traces. The proximity timers operated on the same principle as early inkjet printer head alignment protocols.

(Note **6) The “Schrödinger Doctrine” differs from Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) in that it lacks mutuality, assuredness, and destructiveness. It is, in essence, a form of weaponized plausible deniability entangled with metaphysical realism.

(Note **7) Tritium has a half-life of 12.3 years, which imposes maintenance demands on any thermonuclear arsenal. Delays in logistics—particularly involving customs mislabeling or regional airspace closures—can degrade its viability. The recovered ampoules emitted negligible beta activity and one was reportedly mistaken for a novelty highlighter.

[Aditya_V]

Next time , we should agree any ceasefire till PA/PAF acknowledges Losses on 26 Feb 19 , 27 Feb 19, 7-10 May 25.

[Tanaji]

AmberG

Is the above your write-up? Also:

• Are authentication matrices routinely declassified and if do why does it matter if its is formatted in WP?
• Pakistan did test after India did - we have signatures for that, so is the inference that it was Chinese maal?
• Even if Pak nukes never existed, deterrence is in the eye of the beholder. Which Indian leader will take a risk even if there is a 95% chance of the nukes not existing? In that sense the deterrence still holds?

Interesting write-up

[suryag]

Amberg Sir/Madam/Them - too much of OHT, kuch samajh nahi aaya

are you saying that the seismic activity recorded that of a 50Hz sine wave(AC ?)

what is a launch authentication matrix and what is wordperfect ?

what you are saying is they dont have a warhead and many believe it is not there because it is mated on delivery vehicle however since it is not there in the first place it cant be mated and it is also not there

and you are saying they have no-MAD

phew!!! so our kirana hills hit confirmed there is no-MAD and your schroedinger theory says now that warhead is neither deployed nor there

are you serious sir ? this is not nook-nude, this is even worse, so all along they had been selling hopes to the entire islamic world ki that they ate grass and made the atim bum(not the haseena waala)

[Hriday]

Current thoghts, based on read of info, disinfo and propaganda released so far, on the air war part of the conflict:

1. May 6/7, IAF had a sense of complacency (our birds were well protected and away from known threats and capabilities). Complacency perhaps because Eyrie(s) not on station or far away? (Perfect window to launch attack)

2. 2 or 3 sources say that there is belief that HQ9 / AD were the cause of all/any hits, and not A2A. However we know PL15s have been fired and found on our side.

3. PRC propaganda says HQ9 detected, transmitted location to AWACS which was "out of range" and which then gave firing instructions to PL15 carriers (JF17/J10s), which fired the PL15s (as now confirmed by Shishir Gupta at RMAX c. 200km range). D20s jammed and spoofed as usual.

4. As per OSINT seeker analysis of PL15s recovered, the range is 25 km from target for it to "switch on" so very little time for target to react once pitbull.

(Comment: potential "surprise" was sensor fusion from satellites or HQ9 fire control radar, which Shishir Gupta says was the 250km range one, and there being 4 rather than the presumed 2 batteries. Complacency would come as HQ9 FCS detection may have one expecting AD missile launch and not a A2A as well as range of 150km away from nearest enemy BARCAP).

5. our reaction thence was SEAD/DEAD of C2 and C4I nodes, AD sites including HQ9 FCS which then blinded them.
...

Rishi ji, the above could be true. There is an article from Swarajya magazine stating the same capability of AWACS guiding the PL-15E missile. Article says inputs from from @Firezstarter1 in X who is known military analyst.
https://x.com/ideorogue/status/19313109 ... FvWsw&s=19

One Month Of Operation Sindoor: This Pause Is Just A Pause

swarajyamag.com/defence/one-mo… via ⁦@SwarajyaMag⁩ with inputs from ⁦@Firezstarter1⁩

the Erieye is a major threat to the Indian Air Force, and deserves to be taken out at the start of any conflict because of its dual function: detecting threats in advance and guiding missiles fired passively by jets to their targets. To explain, the AWACS identifies an enemy fighter jet far beyond visual range, instructs one of its warplanes to launch an air-to-air missile at the target with the missile’s seeker switched off, and guides the missile to the target zone. Now, close up, when the missile switches on its seeker, it is too late for the target to evade or escape because it is already trapped within the missile’s kill zone.
...
With inputs from @Firezstarter1 in X.

[Cybaru]

[
swarajyamag.com/defence/one-mo… via ⁦@SwarajyaMag⁩ with inputs from ⁦@Firezstarter1⁩

the Erieye is a major threat to the Indian Air Force, and deserves to be taken out at the start of any conflict because of its dual function: detecting threats in advance and guiding missiles fired passively by jets to their targets. To explain, the AWACS identifies an enemy fighter jet far beyond visual range, instructs one of its warplanes to launch an air-to-air missile at the target with the missile’s seeker switched off, and guides the missile to the target zone. Now, close up, when the missile switches on its seeker, it is too late for the target to evade or escape because it is already trapped within the missile’s kill zone.
...
With inputs from @Firezstarter1 in X.

It is threat no doubt, but this is stretching engineering capabilities a bit too much.

First L/S band isn't good enough to to guide PL-15. Requires X-band. Okay maybe it guides to general area and then the onboard seeker takes over.

How does the co-ordinates make it from Erieye to PL15? Difficult to put a link16 compatible link in the Chinese missiles.

Okay maybe it gives co-ordinates to JF17 and they are manually input and the missile fired - a bit slow for a fast moving battle.

[S_Madhukar]

So in this scenario fighters can’t use MAWS to detect the incoming until it is too late… ? But our AWACS can discern incoming or not ?

The other Q is did they fire after we fired our 1st salvo on the 1st night or after ? Bhadwas can’t be trusted as they will target even innocent CAPs just to get a kill

We probably need a denser radar network then with some aerostats although aerostats are easy targets

[Cybaru]

I think our ROE probably requires confirmation before firing to ensure innocent aircraft are not targeted. That was probably the disadvantage we played with. I think that is the right way to go...

[SSridhar]

Okay here it goes ..

Thank you for a technical, hilarious but increasingly factual state of affairs of the nuclear weapons of TSP.

Like for example, the ollapse of a quantum superposition state when measured ! Classic. Probably applies to every sphere of Pakistani activity.

[Rishi]

It is threat no doubt, but this is stretching engineering capabilities a bit too much.

First L/S band isn't good enough to to guide PL-15. Requires X-band. Okay maybe it guides to general area and then the onboard seeker takes over.

How does the co-ordinates make it from Erieye to PL15? Difficult to put a link16 compatible link in the Chinese missiles.

Okay maybe it gives co-ordinates to JF17 and they are manually input and the missile fired - a bit slow for a fast moving battle.

Chini propaganda shows this:

https://x.com/szygls/status/1921726350718902624

Does this makes sense ?

[drnayar]

^^
Just speculating, during Balakot air skirmish it was reported that India detected the incoming AIM-120 missile possibly by Netra AEW&C and SU-30 MKI was alerted but they escaped it even within the missile MAR zone as reported by ex pilot Sameer. Many commented that super-manuevrability of SU-30 MKI playing a key role.

Pakistan probably sprayed lots of PL-15 with proper midcourse guidance and Rafale was overwhelmed and it lacks the super-manuevrability.

quite unlikely, the rafale radar can engage more than a hundred targets at a time.,
it can jam even the sukhois radar [ the egyptians found out ! ], not to mention the missile's active terminal radar

[Jay]

Pakistan probably sprayed lots of PL-15

PAF's version of 'ak-phyr' then! How apt!

[chetak]

^^
Just speculating, during Balakot air skirmish it was reported that India detected the incoming AIM-120 missile possibly by Netra AEW&C and SU-30 MKI was alerted but they escaped it even within the missile MAR zone as reported by ex pilot Sameer. Many commented that super-manuevrability of SU-30 MKI playing a key role.

Pakistan probably sprayed lots of PL-15 with proper midcourse guidance and Rafale was overwhelmed and it lacks the super-manuevrability.

Hriday ji,

what is this super-manoeuvrability, just asking onlee