Indus Water Treaty

[Jayram]

Hmm one thought. Our maximal position If Pakistan wants the IWT resumed India could demand Pakistan break all ties with China! And become a defacto vassal state to India. POK border has to be removed. All access to Afgan and Iran gas pipelines have to granted. We get to redraw maps without blood and war.
Of course they would never agree but our strategic thinking needs to broaden to reflect our long term goals.

[Agasthi]

In addition to expanding the existing canal system like the Ranbir canal (starts at Akhnoor and ends at Jammu Tawi river near Jammu). India is fast-tracking water diversion tunnels as well. A 23 km DT from Chenab to Solang Nullah (a tributary of the beas river near Rohtang pass) is being fast tracked along with others as well.

I had wondered the feasibility of a 80 km DT from Baglihar to Ranjit Sagar. Looks like there is more faster options. A 23 Km DT to Solang Nullah is upstream of the Pong dam which also has an existing DT transferring Beas water to Sutlej. At this rate, the Punjab section of the SYL canal should be fastracked as well.

I had posted earlier projects from Nepal where they built a DT 20-24 km in 12-16 months. This is so exciting. PEACE for WATER!

https://theprint.in/india/iwt-on-hold-i ... e/2604608/

[SSridhar]

In my opinion the IWT treaty was signed because:

- At the time, Bharat and Paastan were not that much different in military capability

In my assessment, there was also another angle to it which was the US stakes.

The US was actively wooing India in 1950 and there was a strong pushback from Nehru at that time. The US was planning to setup organizations that would take on communism. Eventually they turned out to be 'Northern Tier Defense' initially, then 'MEDO' and later 'CENTO' & 'SEATO'. The Americans also feared India would be vulnerable to communism.

The Pakistanis openly courted the Americans and there was British support for that too. Remember Sir Olaf Caroe who suggested to the Americans to replace Imperial India with Pakistan as an ally? The British had told the Americans that even the integrity of India was not guaranteed while the Pakistanis were united strongly by religion and were against the Godless Communists.

It was Truman whose administration initiated the resolution process of the Indus waters through the World Bank. He is said to have told Nehru that he wanted to remove the 'kind of unfriendliness' in the relationship.

Thus, the US set in motion the IWT process in c. 1951 initially through David Lilienthal, who had been US Atomic Energy Commission Chairman and was well known to Indian scientists, and then through the WB.

Remember that the US signed the 'Mutual Defense Assistance Program' with TSP only in c. 1954, quickly followed by CENTO & SEATO with TSP inducted and its military heavily modernized. And then it was total downhill. India had already committed to the IWT process by then.

But to be fair to the mediator, it was India's demands that were finally awarded, in fact slightly even more.

[SSridhar]

Hmm one thought. Our maximal position . . .

It is a step-by-step process for us. The first thing that India should do is to scrap the IWT altogether, thus remove WB from the scene completely (even though it is only minimal even now), demand and agree to only a bilateral negotiation to settle the water sharing issue through a new Treaty, otherwise a big NO. In fact, there need be no tearing hurry to do anything at all on a water-sharing treaty because TSP will not exist in the current form & content after some time. We can take a call later. In the meanwhile, we go ahead with our projects which would be a fait-accompli later when time comes, if at all.

Just look at China. It is the upper riparian for many mighty rivers from Occupied Tibet. It has absolutely no water sharing agreement with any of the dozen lower-riparian states. It manipulates water flow at will and to its needs. Yet another behaviour it has displayed is in the Indo-China Sea where it agreed to codify behaviour through the 'Declaration of Conduct', but for over a decade now it has delayed it by calling for 'joint reading sessions' 1,2 & 3. There is zilch movement while it maintains the optics of some movement.

[Yagnasri]

Currently, Bharat will build dams, canals, etc, required to store/use the water while keeping the IWT under abeyance. The uncertainty of the water flow will ensure pakis will not have proper agri activity and suffer immensely in the meantime. As several ministers said this is only starting point of the pain to pakis.

[bala]

The Chokehold over Tibet by China where most major Rivers of Asia originate is a worrying issue. Herein PGurus cautions that China's next frontier of hostility could be around Indus and Sutlej rivers. Even Brahmaputra is under upper riparian control of China.

China is silently turning water into a weapon. As the Indus and Sutlej Rivers flow from Tibet into India, a quiet but dangerous game is unfolding. With increasing dam projects, strategic diversions, and surveillance along key Himalayan waterways, Beijing is aiming to choke India’s lifelines.

youtube.com/watch?v=wmQccUQF_U4

[krisna]

China can do little damage relatively to India wrt rivers.

Brahmaputra river about 40%-45% before it we enters India.

Sutlej river about 20% before it enters India

Indus river only about 8% before entering India.


Most of waters are generated within Indian control.


Terr0istan will be badly affected by India as it c a n completely block waters of all rivers if needed.

[KL Dubey]

In my opinion the IWT treaty was signed because:

- At the time, Bharat and Paastan were not that much different in military capability

......

In my assessment, there was also another angle to it which was the US stakes.
.....

It was Truman whose administration initiated the resolution process of the Indus waters through the World Bank. He is said to have told Nehru that he wanted to remove the 'kind of unfriendliness' in the relationship.

Thus, the US set in motion the IWT process in c. 1951 initially through David Lilienthal, who had been US Atomic Energy Commission Chairman and was well known to Indian scientists, and then through the WB.
......

Makes sense.

There is no reason for us to keep abiding by this obsolete treaty. Instead of renegotiating it with Pawkee-stan, Bharat has suspended it. When Pawkeestan "breaks up", the treaty will automatically become void. Later on we can always opt to have any new treaties (or not) with any of the successor states.

[chetak]

China can do little damage relatively to India wrt rivers.

Brahmaputra river about 40%-45% before it we enters India.

Sutlej river about 20% before it enters India

Indus river only about 8% before entering India.


Most of waters are generated within Indian control.


Terr0istan will be badly affected by India as it c a n completely block waters of all rivers if needed.

krisna ji,


This is true only during the lean months.

When the rivers are in spate, excess waters will anyway flow to pukestan, and India will not be able to do very much to curtail the flows

But, it's the lean months that the pakis are really worried about

[williams]

We must exploit the resources as much as possible for our power generation and irrigation. Passing of excess water should be fine. The best example of this sort of work happened (Kundah projects) in the 50s in the Nilgiri mountains (western Ghats), where most of the water from various catchment areas flowing toward KL got redirected towards TN. Proper planning and engineering work for a few years should benefit us. We can over-engineer a bit to create a strategic tap that can be switched on and off on that excess water, too.

[bala]

A slightly tangential topic, nevertheless similar..

UNDERSTANDING CHINA'S DAM ON THE BRAHMAPUTRA / MR SREE IYER / LT GEN PR SHANKAR

IWT Abeyance is going to cause so much damage to Pak land, we have to think about China and its designs on Brahmaputra river. Although only around 15% of water flows in Tibet area, and the rest are due to rains in Assam/AP etc, the pertinent implications of China's designs are to supply water mainly to their mainland areas.

In this YT Lt. Gen P R Shankar, who has intimate knowledge of the terrain in NE of India, lays out the issues that will accrue from China's greed to take water away to their mainland. He alludes to a system of pondage dams being built by China. This can be weaponized by China by flooding at will India/Assam/BD whenever they please. But the system will cause weather pattern changes, earthquakes due to pondage water seepage underground/rock. The other issue is the pattern of water flow is majorly affected and BD will be at the receiving end since salinity of Ocean will overpower their irrigation lands and render them useless. Already karachi is facing such salinity issues. Too many side effects are possible by China dams, some of them actually will affect them in many ways. For example if monsoon patterns change then tibet can see flooding and earthquakes will be even worse in terms of damage. The recurring powerful earthquakes in Tibet and Nepal, as late as in January 2025 upto 6.8 Richter scale, proves the precarious environmental damage potential in the area. China mainland has also faced numerous earthquakes. China is not known to think through such nuances, instead they decide unilaterally and often brutally to implement things in double quick times. Certainly they will not consult with India.

[chetak]

LISTEN CAREFULLY to Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmer welfare speaking on chacha squandering away the Indus waters to the pakis, along with tens of millions of dollars when it was not needed

He's revealing a little known story about a massive compromise with India's national interest.


In the end, after squeezing chacha dry, the goras made very sure that the self described "international statesman" never got the (ig)noble

WATCH VIDEO

[ritesh]

LISTEN CAREFULLY to Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmer welfare speaking on chacha squandering away the Indus waters to the pakis, along with tens of millions of dollars when it was not needed

He's revealing a little known story about a massive compromise with India's national interest.


In the end, after squeezing chacha dry, the goras made very sure that the self described "international statesman" never got the (ig)noble

WATCH VIDEO

After paying millions for porki canals, we had to beg murica for third grade wheat just to survive.

[Sachin]

When the rivers are in spate, excess waters will anyway flow to pukestan, and India will not be able to do very much to curtail the flows

What can still be done is opening the sluice gates randomly, and letting excess water go towards Pakistan. For technical expertise & guidance GoI can reach out to ex-Electricity Minister of Kerala Com. M.M Mani.

[SSridhar]

^

[SSridhar]

Centre to fast-track Indus irrigation and power projects - Vishwa Mohan, ToI

Centre has identified as priority irrigation and power generation, among other developmental projects, in the Indus River Basin in sync with its resolve to utilise additional waters of western rivers - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab - in J&K and its neighbouring states in a time-bound manner.

The decision on how to streamline these projects by infusing additional funding under the "all hands on deck" approach was taken during an inter-ministerial meeting - involving officials of home, MEA, power & Jal Shakti ministries - on the issue Tuesday. It was the first such meeting after keeping the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following Pahalgam attack.

"It was decided to fast-track the implementation of pending projects - be it irrigation canals, navigation projects or under-construction power projects - through priority funding in the medium and long-term," a source said.

He said since the treaty is suspended, India is not under obligation to share water flow data or basic project detail with Pakistan, and it makes it easier to do flushing to clear sediments from reservoirs of existing hydro-power projects to augment their storage capacities without informing the neighbouring country.

India recently did flushing and desilting as a short-term measure to store additional water in reservoirs of two run-of-the-river hydro-power projects - Baglihar and Salal - on the Chenab in J&K.

"Power ministry representatives have been asked to speed up works on four under-construction hydro-power projects and work on getting clearances for another three by holding consultations with experts," the source added.

Out of an estimated power potential of about 20,000 MW, which could be harnessed from power projects on western rivers, only around 4,000 MW capacity of hydro-power generation units has, so far, been constructed in India.. AoA

[SSridhar]

'Pakistan put in abeyance goodwill and friendship': MEA on India suspending Indus Waters Treaty - ToI

The ministry of external affairs justified India's decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, citing Pakistan's breach of principles guiding the agreement in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack. Briefing the parliamentary committee, foreign secretary Vikram Misri noted that the neighbouring nation effectively set aside the principles of "goodwill and friendship" enshrined in the 1960 treaty's preamble.

"The treaty in its preamble says that it is concluded in a spirit of goodwill, and friendship. All these principles have in effect been held in abeyance by Pakistan. The unrelenting cross-border terrorism from Pakistan interferes with our ability to exploit the treaty as per its provisions," the MEA said.

Moreover, the MEA said that the shifts in ground realities—ranging from advances in engineering to climate change and glacial melt—necessitate a renegotiation of the treaty's terms, a stance that visiting delegations will underscore globally as they defend India's decision to suspend the agreement, PTI reported citing sources.

It further noted that Pakistan’s continued stonewalling of India’s requests for government-to-government talks, despite significant changes in ground realities, underscored the urgent need to renegotiate the treaty—originally framed around mid-20th century engineering techniques—to make it relevant for the 21st century.

Fundamental shifts such as climate change, glacial melt, fluctuating river flows, and changing demographics—alongside the growing need for clean energy—make it imperative to renegotiate the distribution of rights and obligations under the treaty, MEA said.

It added that given the fundamental changes in ground realities, it was both natural and well within India's rights to suspend the treaty.

Foreign secretary Misri recently briefed a parliamentary committee on India’s response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, including Operation Sindoor, and has engaged with all seven multi-party delegations visiting 33 countries and the European Union to convey India's stance amid rising tensions with Pakistan.

[SSridhar]

'Haven't done anything yet and Pakistan is already sweating': PM Modi on Indus Water treaty - ToI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday gave a strong message to Pakistan and said that till now India has kept the Indus water under abeyance, and has not taken any firm action yet, and still, Pakistan is sweating.

While addressing Gandhinagar for day 2, PM Modi said he also talked about the 1960 Indus Water treaty and said that for the 60 years the gates built at the bottom of these dams on other rivers in Jammu and Kashmir, meant for cleaning, were not opened.

"I want to speak to the new generation. Do you know how the country was ruined? If you look closely at the 1960 Indus water treaty, you’ll be shocked. It was even decided back then that the dams built on other rivers in Jammu and Kashmir would not be cleaned. Desilting would not be done. The gates at the bottom of these dams, meant for cleaning, would not be opened. For 60 years, those gates were never opened. And the reservoirs, which should have been filled to 100% capacity, gradually lost their capacity. It reduced to just 2% or 3%," PM Modi said.

"Do my fellow countrymen not have a right to water? Shouldn’t they receive their rightful share of water? Shouldn’t they? And mind you, I haven’t even done much yet.

All we’ve done is keep it under abeyance, and even that has make them sweating. We’ve opened a few dam gates and started cleaning. We are removing the waste and debris. And even that much is making them panic," he added.

[Hriday]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... enab-water
Some excerpts below.

India has launched a pre-feasibility study for the construction of the Chenab-Ravi-Beas-Sutlej link canal project aimed at diverting water from the Chenab currently flowing into Pakistan under the currently inactive Indus Waters Treaty.
The project proposes to channel 15-20 million acre-feet of water from the Chenab to Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
...
Under the IWT, India was allowed to use up to 20% of the water for non-consumptive purposes, and plans to demand permission to use up to 40% of the water in case of renegotiations, an officer said.

To remove the possibility of a resumption of the treaty by a future Cong govt it would have been better to abrogate the treaty.

[Agasthi]

The project proposes to channel 15-20 million acre-feet of water from the Chenab to Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

That's more than 80% of Chenab's full flow of 22-24 MAF per annum

[chetak]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... enab-water
Some excerpts below.

India has launched a pre-feasibility study for the construction of the Chenab-Ravi-Beas-Sutlej link canal project aimed at diverting water from the Chenab currently flowing into Pakistan under the currently inactive Indus Waters Treaty.
The project proposes to channel 15-20 million acre-feet of water from the Chenab to Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
...
Under the IWT, India was allowed to use up to 20% of the water for non-consumptive purposes, and plans to demand permission to use up to 40% of the water in case of renegotiations, an officer said.

To remove the possibility of a resumption of the treaty by a future Cong govt it would have been better to abrogate the treaty.

Hriday ji,

just because some clown gave away 84% (give or take) of India's precious resource to the jihadis for what ever reason, no need for the current govt to accept it, especially given the continued paki putrid behavior since 1947

abrogate and renegotiate is the new mantra, (but let the pakis start to think seriously about a new treaty), and this time around, not more that 25 - 30 % should go to them.

After all India is the upper riparian and should retain all rights to it's waters, and BTW, the subcontinent has no history of water sharing pacts, prior to the one sided IWT.

The cheen have none with anybody, so why should we

the desperate pakis have already written four letters to India's water ministry, all of which have gone unanswered by India

[Yagnasri]

It all depends on how much of the catchment areas of these rivers are presently under our control. From what learned about 40% of the total water of all the rivers combined is in that areas. So we can max use that water. Even if we do it, pakis lose some 25% of the total water presently coming to their lands. This alone is a massive hit.

If we do help Afghans to manage their rivers better and dam them to use those waters for their purpose then that also will be massive hit on pakis. As per the reports, we have already taken steps in this direction.

In the long term, they are on the way to becoming a desert—a fitting fate.

[chetak]

It all depends on how much of the catchment areas of these rivers are presently under our control. From what learned about 40% of the total water of all the rivers combined is in that areas. So we can max use that water. Even if we do it, pakis lose some 25% of the total water presently coming to their lands. This alone is a massive hit.

If we do help Afghans to manage their rivers better and dam them to use those waters for their purpose then that also will be massive hit on pakis. As per the reports, we have already taken steps in this direction.

In the long term, they are on the way to becoming a desert—a fitting fate.

yes we have, Yagnasri garu.


but when push comes to shove they are all katwas who pray the same and will turn on India, sooner rather than later.


the tallibunnies are friendly for the moment because of the aid India gives them and they can't be trusted

[Yagnasri]

Agreed. They are only our tactical allies at best. That is all. We do not need anything from them. They want part of what pakis consider as their lands. Already they hate Pakistanis anyway. We are just making them dam their rivers and use that water for themselves. Net result will be pakis getting hit big time.

[ritesh]

The packees have now written 4 letters begging in favour of IWT. Hope the agencies are alert for any mischievous attempts by them in sabotaging the various barrages and water diversion.