Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[gakakkad]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... nds-minor/

Repeat after me. India has the best air defense network in the whole world at the moment .

[Vayutuvan]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... nds-minor/

Repeat after me. India has the best air defense network in the whole world at the moment .

I was about to say. Iran's ADS is not existent. Probably they have same CHinese stuff that Pakis relied on as well. Israel is farther from Iran than India from Pakisatan. They would have a lot more time from Iranian launches to their landing in Tel Aviv. EVen then Iranian missiles caused destruction. US ABMs are not all that they are made out to be, it seems.

[Amber G.]

Israel reportedly has targeted Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) (near Qom in Central Iran ).. and strikes also reported against the Parchin Nuclear Facility to the south of Tehran.. just posting it here (and watching for my interest..from India's point of view)


FWIW (not speculating, still waiting for details but form what I know, some thoughts_:



- Fordow is deeply buried under a mountain near Qom — designed specifically to withstand aerial bombardment. It's known for Enriching uranium to near weapons-grade, housing advanced centrifuges.and a key concern in Western and Israeli counterproliferation strategy.

- Pakistan has hardened facilities, at places like Kahuta, Sargodha, and possibly in Balochistan ( tunnels in Chagai Hills).Their uranium enrichment is centered at Kahuta Research Laboratories (KRL) near Islamabad, though not as deeply buried as Fordow.

- Pakistan is to rely more on operational dispersion and strategic mobility than fixed underground fortresses.
(Iran’s FFEP is a highly concentrated, hardened target while Pakistan model is survivability through dispersal.


Parchin, south of Tehran, is associated with high-explosive testing and weaponization research
Detonator testing.

Pakistani equivalents might-

- The Wah Cantonment
- PINSTECH (linked to both civilian and dual-use research).

Comparison:

-Both Parchin and Pakistani facilities are dual-use and often obscured under the veil of conventional military cover.

-Pakistan has gone further toward weaponization, including tested warhead designs and delivery systems integration.

Infrastructure
Iran’s network is smaller but more centralized: Fordow, Natanz, Arak, Esfahan, Parchin.
Pakistan’s network is more operational, diversified, and intended for bluff and black mail ...
Chagai Hills (testing site), KRL, Wah, Khushab (plutonium production).
Several known missile garrisons and mobile units.

Pakistan’s geography and dispersion make preemptive strikes -at least Paki thnk , more complicated but I don't know how much our intelligence know..

[gakakkad]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... nds-minor/

Repeat after me. India has the best air defense network in the whole world at the moment .

I was about to say. Iran's ADS is not existent. Probably they have same CHinese stuff that Pakis relied on as well. Israel is farther from Iran than India from Pakisatan. They would have a lot more time from Iranian launches to their landing in Tel Aviv. EVen then Iranian missiles caused destruction. US ABMs are not all that they are made out to be, it seems.

Plus India is defending vast area from a bordering country. While Israel is defending something the size of the state of Goa.

I pray that they don't suffer more damage . They and us are the 2 oldest continuously surviving civilizations. They are our civilizational.cousin after all. If they succeed in getting the Persians liberated from the islamics it'll be great news for the world .

[shravanp]

I was about to say. Iran's ADS is not existent. Probably they have same CHinese stuff that Pakis relied on as well. Israel is farther from Iran than India from Pakisatan. They would have a lot more time from Iranian launches to their landing in Tel Aviv. EVen then Iranian missiles caused destruction. US ABMs are not all that they are made out to be, it seems.

Plus India is defending vast area from a bordering country. While Israel is defending something the size of the state of Goa.

I pray that they don't suffer more damage . They and us are the 2 oldest continuously surviving civilizations. They are our civilizational.cousin after all. If they succeed in getting the Persians liberated from the islamics it'll be great news for the world .

To be fair, India has slight advantage of taking down Pakis BMs because we can catch them in boost phase. Its ideal to shoot down BMs in boost phase and far tougher to intercept in terminal phase.

[Vayutuvan]

To be fair, India has slight advantage of taking down Pakis BMs because we can catch them in boost phase. Its ideal to shoot down BMs in boost phase and far tougher to intercept in terminal phase.

Aah. Thanks. I stand corrected.

[Vayutuvan]

- Pakistan is to rely more on operational dispersion and strategic mobility than fixed underground fortresses.
(Iran’s FFEP is a highly concentrated, hardened target while Pakistan model is survivability through dispersal.

Thanks. One doubt (not trolling).

Why doesn't Iran employ both strategies, i.e. why not part of their nuke enrichment made survivable through dispersal?

[Amber G.]

- Pakistan is to rely more on operational dispersion and strategic mobility than fixed underground fortresses.
(Iran’s FFEP is a highly concentrated, hardened target while Pakistan model is survivability through dispersal.

Thanks. One doubt (not trolling).

Why doesn't Iran employ both strategies, i.e. why not part of their nuke enrichment made survivable through dispersal?

FWIW, Pakistan's logic (at least from a scientific viewpoint) is very difficult to understand. As some people have pointed out here, they really have almost zero reputable physicists (or mathematicians or engineers, for that matter) left in Pakistan right now. When I talked jokingly about 'barns' and the neutron cross-section story, I was not making it up; it's not far from a real event...

Iran and Israel both have excellent nuclear physicists (and a strong math background, etc.). In the 1970s, there were many Iranian students at MIT (and other places in USA); many I came to know fairly well. Of course, Israel is excellent (I did experimental nuclear physics work in one summer with one well-known professor). For example, Reza Amrollahi (AEOI chief) was at MIT around the same time as Moniz (Obama's Secretary of Energy) was a prof at MIT. Both were directly involved in the nuclear deal.

Anyway, Pakistan has both U-235 and Pu-239 in their weapons program, while Iran depends only on U-235. Iran planned a heavy water reactor at Arak, which could produce Pu-239 from natural uranium fuel. But under the Obama nuclear deal, the Arak reactor was partially dismantled, and AFAIK, Iran has no known reprocessing facility to extract Pu from spent fuel, which is essential for a weapons pathway.

Pak OTOH has 'old' legacy U weapons - but also Pu (lighter, with boosted fission and for missiles etc) weapons too so it is quiet different.

(Note that Enrichment planta (Centrifuges etc) are big but can easily be hidden underground giving no signals for sats etc while Nuclear reactors (and reprocessing facility) is difficult to hide.. so this is also important)

[Deans]

India was able to hit runways across multiple airbases simultaneously with devastating effect. Would it have been prudent to have done this as the first step to prevent the Pak aircraft from taking to the air? This would have set off sufficient panic before striking the terror outfits. This would have curtailed their options to flying drones or missiles; both of which was well defended by the AD system. Would have given IAF air dominance and supremacy.

There was no need to take the moral high ground that we were only hitting terror targets and not military/ civilian installations. Anyway, the PAF would have been able to repair their runways in due course of time.

The moment you hit runways pre-emptively, its a declaration of war. Pak would have guessed we were about to do something and emptied all their
terrorist camps.
Pak would also then fire at civilian aircraft.

[Amber G.]

FWIW, Pakistan's logic (at least from a scientific viewpoint) is very difficult to understand. As some people have pointed out here, they really have almost zero reputable physicists....

..Proof.. even the spell checkers in their word-processing software...

[drnayar]

FWIW, Pakistan's logic (at least from a scientific viewpoint) is very difficult to understand. As some people have pointed out here, they really have almost zero reputable physicists....

..Proof.. even the spell checkers in their word-processing software...
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GtT7FoGWIAA ... me=900x900[/img

[Jay]

To be fair, India has slight advantage of taking down Pakis BMs because we can catch them in boost phase. Its ideal to shoot down BMs in boost phase and far tougher to intercept in terminal phase.

Did this happen? The one video where we took out one of their BM's shows it was in its terminal phase?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu2tVpd4D4Q

[bala]

We don't have a dedicated thread on Balochistan.. so I am posting this YT by PGurus which goes in depth into Balochistan, its history, its strategic location, the China angle of CPEC and more. On History: Neverwho once again blunders his way. Oman owned Gwadar and offered India to take over gwadar for a sum of money. Neverwho was not interested and finally Pak bought it out from Oman. That decision haunts India like his many other decisions - Tibet, Kashmir, IWT Treaty, etc. The area of balochistan wanted to be independent from Pak but Pak took over the area using its military forces. The Balochis are fighting against the Pakjabi forces in Pak and India needs to fully support their effort.

In this deep-dive, we unravel why Balochistan has become a hotspot in global geopolitics. From the Gwadar Port offered to India in the 1950s, to China's CPEC ambitions, and the US interest in the Wakhan Corridor — Balochistan is no longer a forgotten province, but a critical chessboard in Asia’s power struggle.

Why Balochistan Matters to China, India & the US: The Hidden Strategic Game
watch at leisure to learn more details: youtube.com/watch?v=LMlfD-gBOts

[Amber G.]

"There's a report that Israel has destroyed Iran's uranium site in Natanz. The IAEA's Rafael Grossi confirms radiological contamination on the site.

I'm posting this here (as opposed to other threads) because of Operation Sindoor and its relationship with Pakistan's weapons, and there are definitely some learnings. I'd like admins or experts to let me know if this is okay... (I'll share some thoughts on the relationship with Pakistan).

Some background on Iran's nuclear infrastructure:

Natanz is Iran's primary uranium enrichment hub, with both underground cascades and above-ground pilot plants.
Fordow, located near Qom, is embedded within a mountain, making it highly fortified and resistant to aerial attack.
Parchin, a military-industrial complex south of Tehran,is for nuclear weapons-related research.

It appears all of the above have been attacked. According to many newspapers, Israel destroyed the above-ground pilot enrichment plant at Natanz, including power substations and backup generators.

The IAEA confirmed radioactive and chemical contamination inside the site, though radiation levels outside remain normal. Reports suggest airstrikes also hit Fordow and Parchin, but Iran's Atomic Energy Organization states the damage was limited or negligible, and Fordow remains operational, according to statements made at the UN

[Amber G.]

Rafale maker Dassault CEO Eric Trappier on Pakistan's word on Rafale losses :

Q:

The loss of at least one Rafale by India during the air clash with Pakistan in early May raises questions in the defense world. Is the Rafale reached its limits?

Eric Trappier:

The Indians did not communicate, so we do not know exactly what happened. What we already know is that the words of the Pakistanis [three destroyed Rafale, ed] are inaccurate. On the other hand, when you operate combat aircraft, you complete a mission. The success of the mission is not having zero loss, it is having achieved its objectives. During the Second World War, it was not said that the Allies had lost the war because they had lost troops... We will see if there were losses or not, and if the war goals were achieved. When the truth comes out, some may have surprises.

[gakakkad]

I looked up Eric trappier after reading the interview. He has aggressively positioned Rafale against f35 even offering it to Canada and Portugal as an alternative to f35 . One of the reason why American media amplified the pakee position.

[Amber G.]

xpost (posted in wrong thread):
This is priceless..

Pakistani Journalist asks Pak Govt and Deep State: :

Ahmad Noorani @Ahmad_Noorani:
کوئی ایک:

اسرائیل کا آئرن ڈوم بھارت کے ریشین ایس فور ہنڈرڈ سے کہیں بہتر ہے۔ ایران کے بہت سے میزائل آئرن ڈون نے روکے مگر کچھ نشانے پر بھی لگے۔

سوال یہ پیدا ہوتا ہے کہ پاکستان کا کوئی ایک بھی میزائل یا کوئی ایک بھی ڈرون مین لینڈ بھارت میں کیوں نہ جا سکا اور سب کو ہی ایس فور ہنڈرڈ نے کیسے گرا لیا؟؟؟؟

مجھے گالیاں ضرور نکالیں۔ برا بھلا ضرور کہیں۔ غدار اور متعصب بھی کہیں۔ مگر سوچیں ضرور۔ مین لینڈ بھارت میں کیے گئے حملے کے بعد تباہی کی کوئی ایک تصویر۔ کوئی ایک ثبوت، کوئی ایک ویڈیو۔ بین الاقوامی میڈیا کی کوئی ایک خبر۔ #کوئی_ایک

For those whose urdu is little rusty it is
"Isra'il ka Iron Dome Bharat ke Russian S Four Hundred se kahin behtar hai. Iran ke bahut se missiles Iron Dome ne roke magar kuch nishane par bhi lage.
Sawal yeh paida hota hai ki Pakistan ka koi ek bhi missile ya koi ek bhi drone Mainland Bharat mein kyon nahin ja saka aur sabko hi S Four Hundred ne kaise gira liya???
Mujhe gaaliayein zaroor nikalein. Bura bhala zaroor kahen. Ghaddar aur muta'assib bhi kahen. Magar sochen zaroor. Mainland Bharat mein kiye gaye hamle ke baad tabahi ki koi ek tasveer. Koi ek saboot, koi ek video. Bayn al-aqwami media ki koi ek khabar. #Koi_Ek

Translation:

Israel's Iron Dome is much better than India's Russian S-400. Iron Dome intercepted many of Iran's missiles, but some hit their targets.

The question arises: why was not a single Pakistani missile or drone able to reach mainland India and how did the S-400 shoot them all down????

You must abuse me. You must call me bad. You must call me a traitor and a bigot. But you must think. Any picture of the destruction after the attack in mainland India. Any evidence, any video. Any news from the international media.

[RCase]

^^^

The question arises: why was not a single Pakistani missile or drone able to reach mainland India and how did the S-400 shoot them all down????

Problem was the Pakis were waiting for the azaan at Fajr. The Endians woke up earlier and were outdoors (because they have no toilets). They were able to spot the missiles and shoot them down. Pakis had turned off the electricity to 70% of Endia, but the wily banias did sazish by lighting their rockets with candles and matches, which they were good at from deepavali exercises.

[RCase]

The moment you hit runways pre-emptively, its a declaration of war. Pak would have guessed we were about to do something and emptied all their
terrorist camps.
Pak would also then fire at civilian aircraft.

Anyway it was a war, whether openly stated or not. The timing of hitting of the runways and terrorist camps could be near simultaneous as there would not be much warning to empty them. We anyway ended up hitting the runways and still it was not declared as a war (just a skirmish)!

I think there was NOTAM in that region anyway. So civilian aircraft could not be hit. Also if Pak fired at civilian aircraft, there would be no sympathy from the world (FWIW).

[Amber G.]

^^^

The question arises: why was not a single Pakistani missile or drone able to reach mainland India and how did the S-400 shoot them all down????

Problem was the Pakis were waiting for the azaan at Fajr. The Endians woke up earlier and were outdoors (because they have no toilets). They were able to spot the missiles and shoot them down. Pakis had turned off the electricity to 70% of Endia, but the wily banias did sazish by lighting their rockets with candles and matches, which they were good at from deepavali exercises.

You guys, as usual have nothing else but making fun ..
Did you ever think how smart those warriors are in Cyber ???

Really - not making it up

Pakistan Defence Minister:

Our Cyber warriors did Wonder during this War with India - We Switched off FLOOD LIGHTS during IPL Match

[Vayutuvan]

^^^

The question arises: why was not a single Pakistani missile or drone able to reach mainland India and how did the S-400 shoot them all down????

Problem was the Pakis were waiting for the azaan at Fajr. The Endians woke up earlier and were outdoors (because they have no toilets). They were able to spot the missiles and shoot them down. Pakis had turned off the electricity to 70% of Endia, but the wily banias did sazish by lighting their rockets with candles and matches, which they were good at from deepavali exercises.

Good one.

[RCase]

^^^
You have to listen to Charsi Chacha and Hamid Mir (the 'journalist') spinning cannards of the technological prowess of Pakistan. Hamid Mir claims that no matter the number of dams that India can build, they can hack the sluice gates to let out water! How is that possible? His answer is classic - just like we jammed the Rafales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSyA3D3ZVTU

[Deans]

The moment you hit runways pre-emptively, its a declaration of war. Pak would have guessed we were about to do something and emptied all their
terrorist camps.
Pak would also then fire at civilian aircraft.

Anyway it was a war, whether openly stated or not. The timing of hitting of the runways and terrorist camps could be near simultaneous as there would not be much warning to empty them. We anyway ended up hitting the runways and still it was not declared as a war (just a skirmish)!

I think there was NOTAM in that region anyway. So civilian aircraft could not be hit. Also if Pak fired at civilian aircraft, there would be no sympathy from the world (FWIW).

The NOTAM started in the evening of 7th May, once Pak started retaliation for Op Sindhoor.
To hit air bases and terror camps simultaneously, you'd need most of the IAF (and Brahmos platforms of the IN) participating. That movement will be
picked up by Chinese satellites ,which will get more Pak fighters in the air, the rest moved to hardened shelters and their air defence fully activated.

[drnayar]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 859588.cms

F35 at this particular city..something smells very fishy. The city is home to one of the command centres of India’s military and home to some avionics research.

A spying mission ? Gone too far ?

[Bharadwaj]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 859588.cms

F35 at this particular city..something smells very fishy. The city is home to one of the command centres of India’s military and home to some avionics research.

A spying mission ? Gone too far ?

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/british ... rt-8672731

British F-35 Fighter Jet Makes Emergency Landing At Kerala Airport

Ok. These are the things that need to be done.

1. It has no lundberg lens. Make sure they dont attach one before it leaves.
2. Bring down a s-400 radar and targeting system and do a complete record of it making sure atc gives the appropriate vectors on departure.
3. Have the Amca program head and a few scientists probe the intake with endoscopes before it leaves.
4. Photograph from every angle possible using hi def equipment.
5. Have a scan on the structure.

[S_Madhukar]

F35 was in Aero India should have been done already

[Bharadwaj]

^^^^^^
No that appearance would have been under various conditions. It had a lundberg lens on all the time. This is different. We can call the shots before letting it go.

[Tanaji]

Luneburg lens saar Luneburg.

Lundberg is what Pakis think each momin has.

[durairaaj]

As the dust is almost settled, I think it is time for us to introspect and address the root cause of the situation.
As much as we gloat about the beatings our armed forces gave to the other side, the resistance our civilians have not given to the terrorists who went on with their job need to be corrected.
Unobstructed killing of 26 Hindu males is what started all this. How come there was no anecdote of even one person fighting back. At least pushing, shoving, head butting or ramming could have happened. Not even one family member fought back? Agree, in front of AK47 barehands are not going to offer a meaningful resistance. Letting some bearded guy to take a family members life is not something that should have been allowed to happen. How come not even one family member was injured. This is the land of Savithri. Does the sacred bond of marriage has been so westernized that now is just a bond of convenience?
Have we become lambs?
We need to teach our kids to fight back, resist, practice martial arts just as much we have to teach about our culture and ancestry. People need to be trained to respond to chaos and crisis. Create ruckus and disorient the attackers. People (men and women) should be trained to overcome the fear of pain.
If we don't do it, the break India puppeteers will come with a new crop of bearded multicolor clothed zombies and dismember the country with ease by greasing few nodal points of power & authority with few dollars more.

[Bharadwaj]

Luneburg lens saar Luneburg.

Lundberg is what Pakis think each momin has.

Sorry Ji Saar Ji. . Whatever it is it’s missing on this fat Amy and we need to make good use of this opportunity.

[S_Madhukar]

Well yes civilians could do better to protect themselves but even the off duty military personnel didn’t have any weapons on them?
Also not sure if emergency phone numbers were available or response was lethargic. We can make fun of over militarism of US police but our police could learn with military tactics and precision too.
When local havaldars in khaki are useless against criminals why expect civilians to do it all. Ultimately police reform and a legal discipline needs to pervade in society.
When terrorists are afraid of local police then you have achieved victory of some sorts over terrorism. Well dressed, educated, equipped police is the way to go not our fat, corrupt, badly paid ones….
Dubai bhai was son of a police, one visit to police quarters will embarrass us and vindicate corruption in the service.
Even BSF don’t get half decent trains for travel.
We should not be shy about spending on internal security as well , laughing at CCPs spend is juvenile, we all need serious upgrades in our security culturally.

[A_Gupta]

IMO:

In Jammu or Kashmir, wherever many hundreds of people congregate frequently, such as at the tourist spot in Pahalgam, there should always be at least a couple of on-duty policemen. And with Pahalgam we are told "Before the April 22 assault, around 15,000 tourists visited Pahalgam daily."

inobtrusive, armed, at a couple of vantage spots with good views of the whole area -- it won't prevent terrorists from attacking, but it will make their planning and execution very much more complicated. You want two separated policemen or two separated groups of policemen so that they cannot be all be taken out in one instant.

[ritesh]

As the dust is almost settled, I think it is time for us to introspect and address the root cause of the situation.

+100

[sanjayc]

Well yes civilians could do better to protect themselves but even the off duty military personnel didn’t have any weapons on them?
Also not sure if emergency phone numbers were available or response was lethargic. We can make fun of over militarism of US police but our police could learn with military tactics and precision too.
When local havaldars in khaki are useless against criminals why expect civilians to do it all. Ultimately police reform and a legal discipline needs to pervade in society.
When terrorists are afraid of local police then you have achieved victory of some sorts over terrorism. Well dressed, educated, equipped police is the way to go not our fat, corrupt, badly paid ones….
Dubai bhai was son of a police, one visit to police quarters will embarrass us and vindicate corruption in the service.
Even BSF don’t get half decent trains for travel.
We should not be shy about spending on internal security as well , laughing at CCPs spend is juvenile, we all need serious upgrades in our security culturally.

Agniveer program is the only solution. Millions of Indian youth should be military trained, and they should know how to fire weapons. Also, arms act should be relaxed, like it has been done in Assam to make it easy for endangered civilians to have arms. Why this was not done in case of Kashmiri Pandits is beyond my comprehension.

Assam government to give arms licences to indigenous people living in 'vulnerable' areas
Addressing a press conference after chairing a cabinet meeting, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said the arms licences would be given to tackle unlawful threats from hostile quarters.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... able-areas

[chetak]

As the dust is almost settled, I think it is time for us to introspect and address the root cause of the situation.

+100

janab,

what will be investigated and addressed .....

will it be:

The heavy involvement of local "civilians"

The heavy involvement of local state govt employees and polis personnel

The heavy involvement of local "first families", the dynaaasts, the intelligence agencies funded snakes and jihadi politicos, and the katwa ecosystem, long batting for the pakis




the root cause(s) is/are too well known

It/they are kashmiriyat, insaniyat, (taken together, they are pure bullshitiyat) is how we get fooled, while gadariyat, laalchiyat and above all taqiyya is how they fool us


and we haven't learnt yet, despite all the overwhelming evidence to the contrary since 1947. The pakis alone didn't/don't have the financial muscle to support these jihadis on their own. The BIF pitch in quite heavily and frequently with money, arms, drugs and world wide media support


The swine who killed the Hindus in pahalgam were in place, comfortable because they were being sheltered by the locals for weeks before they killed the Hindu tourists and one is quite sure that they are being sheltered by the local scum even as we speak. There was no way that these vermin would have outrun the Army for over 200 odd kms, give or take, to the paki border. They are still in cashmere