Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

[Ambar]

The Indian iron dome performed remarkably well in comparison to the Israelis.. is it because we had more warning time or more systems in play ? .. or just better software/hardware/networking. ? .. or ok just the porkis being porkies with their Chinese duds

I don't think its a fair comparision. Israel is facing hundreds of CMs and BMs including hypersonic missiles fired from Iran and Yemen simultaneously while dealing with hundreds Shahed drones. We hinted to Pakis right on day one that our engagement was limited and targeted and we had no intentions of escalating. Besides, i doubt if the Pakis have the same number of BMs as Iran to fire hundreds at a time but as we can see even the best, integrated defense system in the world is not 100% effective when faced with overwhelming number of projectiles mixed with drones.

[A_Gupta]

It seems that Israel is able not only to detect the launch of missiles from Iran but also the preparation for the launch of missiles.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/home-fron ... siles-hit/

The Israel Defense Forces’ Home Front Command announced on Saturday that it was starting to provide a warning to Israelis’ phones some 15-30 minutes before expected ballistic missile attacks from Iran, to allow people adequate time to reach bomb shelters.

The early warning is issued via the Home Front Command app, instructing civilians to ensure they are near bomb shelters. This should assist those without bomb safe rooms in their homes to head for public shelters in time, military officials said.

Though ballistic missiles generally take some 10 minutes to fly from Iran to Israel once launched, the IDF can usually identify a barrage is coming some minutes before that, based on Iranian military preparations for a salvo.

Once the actual launch is detected, Home Front Command will give an early warning both on its app and using the cell broadcast system to instruct civilians to enter bomb shelters, as it has done since Friday. This would give civilians some 10 minutes to get to shelter.

Sirens will sound some 90 seconds before missiles are expected to impact. Once sirens sound, civilians must immediately enter bomb shelters and remain there until an all-clear is given.

[A_Gupta]

Question - will Terroristan take kindly to its supposed "Islamic bomb" monopoly being ended? Surely they do not want Iran to build a nuke?

[A_Gupta]

https://apnews.com/article/israel-pales ... ca33791b39

Israel doesn’t want regime change in Iran, foreign minister says

Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said Sunday that the goal of its military campaign in Iran “is not a regime change.”

“This is for the Iranian people to decide,” Sa’ar said in an interview on CNN. He said the Israeli security Cabinet set the objective as eliminating Iran’s nuclear program and minimizing its ballistic missile threat.

“I believe what we are doing, as an ally for the U.S. and for the Western civilization as a whole, is critical for stability in this part of the world,” Sa’ar said, adding: “If we learn something from our history, when somebody says ‘I’m going to eliminate the Jews,’ take him at his word.”

Sa’ar said Iran was within six months of being able to build as many as nine nuclear bombs.

Iran’s foreign minister was scheduled to also be interviewed on CNN but had to cancel at the last minute, the network said.

[LakshmanPST]

Is there a reason why Israel is choosing the much riskier option of sending dozens of fighters into Iran to attack targets instead of returning the favor using ballistic missiles ? The chances of one or more fighters succumbing to SAM seems more and more likely as sorties increase. Besides, wouldn't the BMs carry much more payload than modified F16s which was designed as a lighter aerial combat fighter?

The Israeli casualties after the latest barrage of missiles is 14 with over 400 injured and over 30 still missing. Either Iran lacks precision or they are specifically targeting civilian centers.

They probably want precision strikes on specific indtallations rather than large scale damage...

[A_Gupta]

Question - if Iran has 20K ballistic missiles, the missile storage facilities are a prime target for the Israelis. Have we any info on such strikes? After all, a BM destroyed on the ground is one less BM that the air defenses have to deal with.

[Deans]

Is there a reason why Israel is choosing the much riskier option of sending dozens of fighters into Iran to attack targets instead of returning the favor using ballistic missiles ? The chances of one or more fighters succumbing to SAM seems more and more likely as sorties increase. Besides, wouldn't the BMs carry much more payload than modified F16s which was designed as a lighter aerial combat fighter?

The Israeli casualties after the latest barrage of missiles is 14 with over 400 injured and over 30 still missing. Either Iran lacks precision or they are specifically targeting civilian centers.

The only ballistic missiles Israel has with a range longer than 300km are the nuclear armed Jericho missiles.
Israel has always relied on the air force to deliver accurate strikes, whereas Iran has relied on missiles since they don't have any real air force
(Russia's SU-35 hasn't been delivered yet).

[bala]

Since Israel has disabled air defence in Iran, Israel/US should jam Beidou/Glonass/turn of GPS over Iran and make Iran shoot missiles in the blind. That is what India did to Pak, jammed beidou signals and turned PL-15 into dud missiles. Installations of missiles are difficult since Iran has spread them all around. The command and control centers are perhaps deep in mountains which Israel hasn't taken out. Too many loose ends causing missile firings from Iran. I am also wondering who gave them hyper sonic missiles - Russia?

[Deans]

It seems that Israel is able not only to detect the launch of missiles from Iran but also the preparation for the launch of missiles.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/home-fron ... siles-hit/

The Israel Defense Forces’ Home Front Command announced on Saturday that it was starting to provide a warning to Israelis’ phones some 15-30 minutes before expected ballistic missile attacks from Iran, to allow people adequate time to reach bomb shelters.

Israel has intercepted 90% of ballistic missiles, with a 10 min warning .
A Scalp missile fired from a Rafale, 150km from the target, at Mach 0.8, will also take 10 mins to reach the target. That is enough time for
Pak, to identify the likely target, clear it and try to intercept the missile.
In all probability, we would have hit `only trees' or a mosque where only pious civilians were praying.

We risked the higher probability of losing an aircraft, by launching from closer to the target, for the high probability of taking the enemy
by surprise and killing terrorists.

[Ambar]

Israel took out a Iranian airforce refueller in Mashaad airport, close to Afghanisan/Uzbek border and some 2300 kms from Tel Aviv!

Ironically, neither Israel nor Iran has the capability to launch ground operations against each other. So one has to wonder what's the end goal after exchanging volleys of missiles? Israel will want to degrade Iranian SAMs, Ballistic Missiles, its airforce and nuclear faciliies as much as possible to buy additional time. Iran will lick its wounds but end up building nukes anyways that they will likely never use directly, but just like pakis they will send it to houthis or hamas or hezbollah to do the dirty work.

[Deans]

Question - if Iran has 20K ballistic missiles, the missile storage facilities are a prime target for the Israelis. Have we any info on such strikes? After all, a BM destroyed on the ground is one less BM that the air defenses have to deal with.

There are all sorts of numbers given for Iran's missiles, from 2000 to 20,000. I think 2000 is more accurate. Russia started the Ukraine war with
less than that. Nethanyahu said the war was about destroying Iran's ballistic missile capability, which could grow to 8000 missiles. Given his penchant for inflating Iran's capabilities, I think a current total of 2000 is a reasonable assumption.

What Israel is trying to destroy ate the TEL (launch) vehicles. They showed some videos on the first day of strikes. It was believed however that many
of the TEL's struck were dummies (no secondary explosion when the launcher with the missile, was hit)

[chanakyaa]

Few observations from non-technical abdul,

1. Looking at this missile/drone traffic from both sides, what I find interesting is that both sides are shooting at each other over IRAQi airspace. I guess no one asked Iraqis if they are fine using their airspace?? Or, may be it is using the northern Iraq (kurdish) and northern Syrian airspace which is not fully under US control. And, this is why Russians were pressured to take Assad out so the replacement joker gives a blank check to use its airspace.

2. Looking at the commercial flight traffic, the airspace over Lebanon and Jordan have not been closed (there are commercial flights over skies as I type this), which means all the missiles/drones blah blah must travel through a narrow corridor over norther Israel to fall fall on Tel Aviv, which, if Jordanian airspace is not closed, must travel half of Israel from North to fall on Tel Aviv, if it has not traveled in Lebanese and Jordanian airspace.

[Deans]

Israel took out a Iranian airforce refueller in Mashaad airport, close to Afghanisan/Uzbek border and some 2300 kms from Tel Aviv!

Ironically, neither Israel nor Iran has the capability to launch ground operations against each other. So one has to wonder what's the end goal after exchanging volleys of missiles? Israel will want to degrade Iranian SAMs, Ballistic Missiles, its airforce and nuclear faciliies as much as possible to buy additional time. Iran will lick its wounds but end up building nukes anyways that they will likely never use directly, but just like pakis they will send it to houthis or hamas or hezbollah to do the dirty work.

Mashaad (close to the Turkmenistan/ Afghan border) is Iran's 2nd biggest city. I've been there. It has a large airport, because of pilgrims visiting its Shia shrine and was probably where flyable aircraft of the Iranian air force were `hidden', because has air superiority over western Iran.

[Tanaji]

I am quite surprised with the comparatively muted response from Iran in response to Israeli attack. Given the amount of fire and brimstone retribution that Iran has been threatening, this is positively kid stuff. I guess Israel has been successful in its targeted killings of key Iranian figures so much that it has degraded Iranian ability to respond. Still, one expected more from the momin.

I think Iran now may be in homeland defence mode and is expecting Israeli aircraft attacks on its territory, and may be holding out to defend against that. The houthi factor is an irritant at best.

[bala]

Some clarity on higher things that we may miss in the fog of tussle between Israel and Iran. Both Iran and Pak have been bombed back on their nuclear ambition back into the stone age and will take a long time (2 decades) to recover back. Iran is not radicalized to the extent of Pak. Getting rid of this hydra is not possible, you cut something and it reappears some other place. Iran has civilization history whereas Pak has none and they (Pak) will never accept anything other than Islam. Iran may see an uprising to throw out Ayatollahs and revert back to their civilization urge. BTW Putin had suggested to Iran that they give up nukes and Russia will supply the uranium fuel for peaceful nuke energy. Iran said no.

However we have to see middle east in a bigger lens. Saudi Arabia initially funded Pak nuclear effort, centrifuges & uranium enrichment. Qatar also has been funding Pak. China is lurking in the background and providing delivery vehicles and rockets to Saudi A. Recently Saudi A wanted nuclear power plants and china is ready to aid in the endeavor. Saudi A after MBS can go nuclear and radical which is a nightmare for the world.

No one in the West has criticized India on IWT abeyance. Only Pak is jumping up and down. Water is a big deal for Pak which means depopulation and migration of people. Sindh is already dry and salinated. Where will they go, will they end up in UK/Euro and USA. India has to be extra vigilant that they don't slip into India. If there are no people in Pak then what happens to borders and enforcement. Radicals will roam around and engage in looting.

Pakistan and Iran Will Lose their Nukes, India & Israel in Action I Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan I Aadi

watch in leisure:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyuIr3eppss

[LakshmanPST]

I asked Grok and it gave an estimated no. of 3000 missiles in Iranian inventory...
Assuming they shoot 100 missiles per day, the attacks should last not more than 30 days...
Since land invasion is not possible, the attacks may be expected to end in 10 or may be 15 days...
----
The main objective if this Operation is to destroy Iran's nuclear program...
Secnario-1:-
If there is credible evidence that their nuclear program is destroyed, Israel will take few hits, hit back on other targets in Iran and declare victory...

Scenario-2:-
If Iran's nuclear program is still intact, which some Iranians are claiming to be, then it is success for Iran... They will launch few more Ballistic missiles, declare victory and would try to end the conflict...
But I doubt Israel or US would stop in that case...
----
I do not see regime change happening, unless US enters the war and a land invasion starts...

[A_Gupta]

I expect Israel to have a solid plan to destroy Fordow. If Israel really does not have the B2 bomber/GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator type equipment available, they must have some other surprise in store.

[A_Gupta]

I asked Grok and it gave an estimated no. of 3000 missiles in Iranian inventory...

Bing CoPilot, "Think Deeper" option gave me this - 3000 missiles, but may be one-tenth capable of striking Israel.

What is the best estimate you have of the number of ballistic missiles Iran has that are capable of striking Israel?

Estimates of Iran’s overall ballistic missile stockpile run very high—U.S. Central Command figures from recent years suggest that Iran has in excess of 3,000 ballistic missiles in total. However, that enormous number includes an assortment of systems: many are short-range designs intended for regional or domestic targets, while only a fraction have the range and accuracy required to bridge the roughly 1,000‑kilometer (621‑mile) gap needed to consistently hit targets in Israel.

Intelligence assessments and open‑source analyses tend to indicate that the missiles capable of striking Israel are those in the medium‑ and intermediate‑range categories. These systems include variants from families such as the Ghadr, Shahab‑3, Emad, Kheibar Shekan, and even more advanced models like the Fattah. Although there isn’t a single universally agreed‑upon number, many analysts suggest that roughly 200–300 of Iran’s ballistic missiles are “strategic” in the sense that they possess the necessary range (and, ideally, the accuracy) to target Israel.

It’s important to note that these figures are subject to considerable intelligence uncertainty and divergent definitions. Some of the missiles in storage, or older systems that have yet to be fully upgraded, may or may not be counted as “capable” in various assessments. Moreover, the actual combat‑relevant count—taking into account operational status, mobility, and counter‑measures—could be lower than the raw numbers suggest.

In short, while Iran’s total ballistic missile arsenal exceeds 3,000 units, the best current estimate is that on the order of 200 to 300 of those systems have the range and capability to potentially strike Israel. This assessment, however, depends on how one categorizes and counts missiles across different families and states of readiness.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives ... n-iraq.php

Iran-backed Shiite militias launched three drones at a US base in western Iraq on June 15. The attack is the first of its kind reported since Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program, key leaders, military equipment, and other infrastructure on June 13, 2025, as part of Operation Rising Lion. As part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, Tehran’s group of regional proxies, the militias’ action risks drawing the US directly into the fighting between Iran and Israel.

The three drones were launched against US forces at the Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province in western Iraq, two US officials told The Associated Press. US forces shot down the drones before they could reach their intended targets.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-ea ... rcna213113

4h ago / 1:07 PM EDT
Trump rejected proposal to kill Iranian supreme leader, U.S. official says
Vaughn Hillyard
President Donald Trump rejected a proposal from Israel in the last days to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a U.S. official told NBC News.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/isr ... 62443.html

Israel says killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei ‘not off limits’ as strikes and missile attacks rage on

Iran Israel conflict: Israeli officials reportedly have refused to rule out the possibility of assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as tensions between the two nations continue to simmer.

Written By Sudeshna Ghoshal
Published
15 Jun 2025, 03:56 PM IST

[Hriday]

Question - if Iran has 20K ballistic missiles, the missile storage facilities are a prime target for the Israelis. Have we any info on such strikes? After all, a BM destroyed on the ground is one less BM that the air defenses have to deal with.

Israel has reportedly struck and destroyed Iran’s underground “missile city” in western Khorramabad. See the 58 second video of the facility in the link below.

From the official X handle of Israel Defence Forces,
https://x.com/IDF/status/19339447307750 ... FEf4w&s=19

Iran posted this video to show the world how powerful they are.
We showed the world what happens when you mistake propaganda for strength.

The Iranian Chief of Staff and Commander of the IRGC featured in this Iranian propaganda video have been eliminated and the site has been struck.

[Hriday]

Is there any proper explanation of how the Iranian SAM systems were so easily disabled? Even Houthis shot down a Saudi F-15 with ground launched R-27 missile. Unbelievable! One of F-35's capability is cyber attack capability and also using the radar as a directed energy weapon. Don't know if Israeli F-35 possess it.

If anyone can find a good article on how Israel got air dominance on Iran please provide the link.

https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1934 ... Fcxqw&s=19

Israel Found a Way to Inhibit the Chinese System Used by Iran

Although the Mossad had attacked on the ground and the Israeli air force bombed almost all of Iran's early warning radar sites, including those actively used by the Iranian Air Defence Forces (IRIADF), this does not fully explain the blackout of Iranian air defenses.

These defenses have been well-integrated for over a decade and have been constantly upgraded. However, somehow the Israelis found a way to inhibit the IRIADF's integration and control system, which utilizes a Chinese system.
..
Israel appears to have quickly moved tactical intelligence operations and, evidently, a cyber operation to the frontline of the combat.

It’s hard to believe that the Chinese software architecture was so vulnerable as to disable the entire Iranian air defense, but that's how it seems at the moment.
..

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Now I wonder India's undoing of Chinese made air defenses in Pakistan during Op Sindoor was a test run.

[drnayar]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... i-strikes/

Is the starlink a security threat to sovereign countries

[gakakkad]

Earthquakes reported around fodrow.

[bala]

Earthquakes reported around fodrow.

Sounds similar to what happened in Pak after Sindoor brahmos attack on sensitive nuclear sites (oops, not according to AM Bharti).

[Ambar]

Pakistan to drop nuclear weapon on Israel if Israel nukes Iran, says Rezaei

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/pak ... al-3202916

Well, do your thing Israel!

[williams]

Pakistan to drop nuclear weapon on Israel if Israel nukes Iran, says Rezaei

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/pak ... al-3202916

Well, do your thing Israel!

If Pakis have nukes and the means to deliver it.

[A_Gupta]

Israel's directed electromagnetic energy weapon (YouTube, Hindi, but slides in English):
https://youtu.be/Sxq4qw1V7-c?si=9uCfV6RV4g1pwZdM

"Scorpius uses razor-sharp energy rays to surgically strike enemy electronics" says Fustick.

[S_Madhukar]

^^^ Now I wonder India's undoing of Chinese made air defenses in Pakistan during Op Sindoor was a test run.

Not joint but in sequence ops and hence IAF being coy about all the details …?

[Manish_P]

Pakistan to drop nuclear weapon on Israel if Israel nukes Iran, says Rezaei

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/pak ... al-3202916

Well, do your thing Israel!

Very difficult to say which of the two is more probable - Iran lying about what the Pakistanis said. Or the Pakistanis about what they told Iran.

[Ambar]

Israel's largest port, Haifa, has been struck again and is partially on fire. IDF admits around 10% of missiles are making through, especially the hypersonic ones. Either Israel overestimated the capability of its three tiered missile defense or underestimated the US perfidy but this exchange of missiles will be more expensive for Israel as Iran doesn't care if it falls on civilian areas. I also think it is time Israel starts firing BMs and CMs instead of its pinpointed attacks using jets. Fordow nuclear site looks pretty intact as per latest satellite imagery, unless US gets involved and starts using heavy bombers, i doubt Israel can do much about sub-terranian missile and nuclear facilities.

There are reports that the atlantic route was busy last night as US started sending dozens of aerial tankers, transporters and electronic warfare planes. Only time will tell if it is just prepardness or if they'll get actively involved in attacking Iran.

[Aditya_V]

The Israelis will say what if Iran had ability to fire Nukes with those BM's, I think Israelis factored some losses, Iranians are not able to take out Israeli Airforce Bases - the main threat, Yes Israeli Air defence missiles are getting used up but so are the Iranian Missiles, I don't think China can produce or ship them, next few few weeks are the Key.

The Israelis took the gamble knowing they could not wait for Iran to have Nukes on those BM's. US is involved and will probably move once Iranian BM/ CM are exhausted so thier personal closer to Iran are safe.

[gakakkad]

Haifa port belongs to adani . It is the cornerstone of IMEC

This world war is effectively IMEC (good guys )vs CPEC

[Dilbu]

Haifa port belongs to adani . It is the cornerstone of IMEC

This world war is effectively IMEC (good guys )vs CPEC

Adani has given out a statement that the port is functioning normally. Missile hit was on the nearby oil refinery.

[drnayar]

Israel's largest port, Haifa, has been struck again and is partially on fire. IDF admits around 10% of missiles are making through, especially the hypersonic ones. Either Israel overestimated the capability of its three tiered missile defense or underestimated the US perfidy but this exchange of missiles will be more expensive for Israel as Iran doesn't care if it falls on civilian areas. I also think it is time Israel starts firing BMs and CMs instead of its pinpointed attacks using jets. Fordow nuclear site looks pretty intact as per latest satellite imagery, unless US gets involved and starts using heavy bombers, i doubt Israel can do much about sub-terranian missile and nuclear facilities.

There are reports that the atlantic route was busy last night as US started sending dozens of aerial tankers, transporters and electronic warfare planes. Only time will tell if it is just prepardness or if they'll get actively involved in attacking Iran.

What Israel needs to complete its objective : The GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) is a precision-guided, 30,000-pound (13,600 kg) "bunker buster" bomb used by the United States Air Force. Only the B2 can carry it.

[gakakkad]

There have been more attempted strikes since the adani statement it appears .

Dilbu , our yehudi cousins need your antijinx

[srin]

Pakistan to drop nuclear weapon on Israel if Israel nukes Iran, says Rezaei

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/pak ... al-3202916

Well, do your thing Israel!

Very difficult to say which of the two is more probable - Iran lying about what the Pakistanis said. Or the Pakistanis about what they told Iran.

Would Pakistan want another nuclear power on its border, that too a Shia one ?
Would Pakistan lose its status as the owner of the sole “Islamic bomb” ?

Now, we know why the “Failed Marshal” went to Washington. The uncle has bought the Bakis and ensured that the Bakis don’t support Iran even against the Israeli attack.

I don’t know what the Jihadistan has promised Iran, but to paraphrase “Yes Minister “, it is necessary to get behind someone before you stab them in the back.

[Deans]

Haaretz is their version of chindu , quint , wire etc . Because it's a vibrant democracy just like India even such anti national opinions are allowed . As far as tehran times is concerned , the Islamic regime will probably not survive 1 month . Forget 2040.

Times of Israel has a fairly moderate view.

[Deans]

Dunno how much of this video is true, bit I counted about 17 direct hits into Israel. iron dome/arrow not doing so well?

.https://www.reddit.com/r/AlJazeera/s/6DYP9RaVqY

The Indian iron dome performed remarkably well in comparison to the Israelis.. is it because we had more warning time or more systems in play ? .. or just better software/hardware/networking. ? .. or ok just the porkis being porkies with their Chinese duds

A different way of looking at it:
We fired 38 Brahmos + Scalp at Pak. More than half hit and did so accurately.

Iran had about 20 hits from 250 odd ballistic missiles fired. We can quibble about the numbers, but it looks like >80% intercepted for Israel and
less than 50% for Pak.
Pak fired only 1 confirmed ballistic missile, which we intercepted, but there is not a big enough sample size to say we intercepted 100% of
ballistic missiles.