Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

[Amber G.]

dup post..

[Amber G.]

All that 60% enriched uranium? Even 400+ kg , as I said before, of it could fit in a small carry-on bag. (volume about 40 l). Could be anywhere—basement, bunker, or behind someone’s bookshelf. It’s “safe” as long as no one steals it (so… fingers crossed it's not next to someone’s cat food stash).

Okay looks like Vance is going to do something about it .
400kg of uranium missing after US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, JD Vance confirms

- US tells UN Security Council that strikes 'degraded' nuclear program..
- U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to one initial U.S. intelligence assessment.. { what I was commenting.. }
US airstrikes failed to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, sources say

[bala]

While we savor the temporary respite between Israel and Iran due to DJT, there are other issues which needs attention. One is the succession plan if any of supreme leader Ayatollah khamenei and the other is IRGC, the thug like organization which keeps law and order in Iran. Apparently the son of supreme leader, mojtaba khamenei is missing, who is a key figure since he controls Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and also has direct access to Russia and China. Meanwhile within Iran the remnants of IRGC are back cracking the whip on the public. Many Iranians have fled to neighboring nations like Armenia, Turkey, etc. Israel is picking up the pieces of missile destruction in many cities, some of its citizens are victims of the blast. There are reports that a fleet of trucks left Fordow prior to the MOAB destruction and perhaps the 400+ kg of enriched uranium was carted away. Iran in terms of facilities is bombed back at least 2 decades. Rebuilding Iran's nuclear ambition will take a long time. The people of Iran may rethink about clerics ruling over them.

[pravula]

An alternate theory is Fordow entrances were buried to stop any spec ops raid.

https://www.twz.com/air/tunnel-entrance ... -2-strikes

[Cybaru]

// DJT is serious about wanting to stop the war. Compared to that undeserving fluff called Obummer, ..... Hope he succeeds and brings peace to a world in turmoil.

Iran & Israel "don’t know what the F.... they’re doing", says US President Donald Trump < video clip>

Definitely ..Deserves ..

I think he deserves more than one medal. One for each war he stopped. India vs Pak, eyeeraaan vs Israel. <Clap .... Clap .... Clap>
We can ignore the fact that he keeps putting out anti India rhetoric and travel advisories.

[Amber G.]

Trump's belief in OSI613 was ....


May be not decades but may be few weeks?

[Amber G.]

I think he deserves more than one medal. One for each war he stopped. India vs Pak, eyeeraaan vs Israel. <Clap .... Clap .... Clap>
We can ignore the fact that he keeps putting out anti India rhetoric and travel advisories.

Last time it was Pakistan.. this time..

US Representative Buddy Carter has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering peace deal between Iran and Israel, and for bold action aimed at Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

[Cybaru]

You think DJT manages his own truth social account?

Nah, DeepState took that over... how else do you explain him telegraphing the moves before the B2s arrived?
To keep things safe from DeepState Pentagon had to work around things.... see below..
https://www.latintimes.com/military-of ... row-585495

Although military officials conducted the preparations in secret, Trump's social media posts and public comments gradually revealed enough details to signal to many observers that an attack was imminent. Six days before the strike, he wrote, "Everyone should evacuate Tehran!" in a Truth Social post. The next day, he revealed he left the G7 meeting in Canada for something "much bigger" than a ceasefire in the Middle East.

A military official told The Times that Trump was considered the "biggest threat to opsec," or operational security, due to his unpredictable social media activity, a concern shared by both the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command. Military planners feared the president was giving Iran too much advance warning of the forthcoming strikes.


To prevent a potential leak, the military launched two groups of B-2 bombers from Missouri on the day of the attack. Only one group was actually headed for Iran, flying undetected, while the other flew toward Guam as a diversion.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the nation's highest-ranking military officer, later confirmed that the Guam-bound group was a "decoy."

https://x.com/Fritschner/status/1937115125049172118

[Jay]

Below video does a good job visualizing iran's NU program since the time the first treaty was signed back in 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmIm8jZwv6s

[Vayutuvan]

Last time it was Pakistan.. this time..

US Representative Buddy Carter has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering peace deal between Iran and Israel, and for bold action aimed at Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

[img...]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuOHYr0X0AA ... name=large[/img]

Start a change.org petition asking Nobel Committee to blacklist Trump forever. Du it.

[Ambar]

All things considered, I think this is the best Israel could have hoped for. Their objective was to destroy Iran's nuclear capability and severely degrade their ballistic missile program. In my opinion, this objective was always going to be near impossible to meet, so the partial, temporary success without losing any military assets is the best they could have achieved.

In a way, the way the war concluded, along with Trump’s unhinged antics and self-congratulatory messages, were so similar to India-Pakistan. If the US can lean on Israel not to attack Iran, even when the latter fired a ballistic missile and killed five people, then the same US will lean on India not to attack Pakistan.

I wouldn't be too surprised that the leaked intelligence assessment, which stated that Fordow is mostly intact and that the enriched uranium has long been moved, was correct. Iran knew this day was coming sooner or later, and if Hamas could build over 1,000 kilometers of tunnels in Gaza, then Iran can surely build pretty deep and high-quality tunnels to safely move its assets knowing they are a prime target.

Israel will have to reassess why 20% of Iranian ballistic missiles made it through but, more importantly, they will have to think about what's next, knowing Iran will race towards nukes and replace its expended missiles in no time.

[Amber G.]

Latest from Trump:


Trump attacks CNN and The New York Times for factually busting claims of any major damage to Iranian nuclear facilities as was earlier claimed by Trump. Iran can easily recover from the setback in few months as per media reports.

[Hriday]

If Iran had saved about 400 kg of 60% enriched Uranium, they will need centrifuges to reach weapon grade of 90%. Assuming Fordow is damaged, where and how the further enrichment will take place? Can it be done in secret?
Considering the level of infiltration of Mossad agents in Iran, it is unlikely that Iran can resume any major nuclear weapons program now. USA vice president J D Vance had announced that the next course of action is the follow up on the remaining enriched Uranium stockpile.
Hopefully Trump will see the merits of chasing the remaining Uranium and will not abandon it for Nobel peace prize. Also more intelligence reports are likely to be leaked in future about the existence of Uranium with Iran and that will be a major stumbling block to get Nobel prize.

[Aditya_V]

Look the way Iran has not been able to take out Israeli planes, Airbase or anything and backing down from the US. They will have to rebuild sites for building centrifges, that will take years, meanwhile the 400 kg of enriched Uranium will be tracked and retrieved, their ballistic missiles were made from Maraging steel and no composite, they used lighter warheads in some of them get higher velocity to get through during saturation attacks on civilian cities, but those unusually light warhead had high CEP making them useless against military targets

[SSridhar]

The biggest reason for Iran's capitulation, apart from the severe pasting that they received, was Russia's indifference on June 23 when Iranian FM met Putin. After gas-lighting everything everywhere, China has also kept mum especially after GBU-57. Iran was shown the riot act, in a way by both its adversaries & friends. It just had to succumb, which anyway looked inevitable.

[A_Gupta]

Counting down to the next strike:
https://www.youtube.com/live/JQMQKko44w ... erM_WBYb-B

My take-ways:

1. The initial US intel report on damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities is “preliminary” and “low confidence”.

2. Iran could withdraw from IAEA supervision.

3. Iran could withdraw from the NPT. But the already agreed-to international sanctions “snap-back”. Current sanctions are basically imposed by the US only.

4. If the damage does not set Iran back sufficiently or if Iran continues nuclearization, I think the war will resume.

IMO, Iran should go for a big bargain - lifting of all sanctions + guarantees of no regime change operation in return for keeping to only a nuclear energy program.

I think that the Iranian regime is ideologically incapable of the big bargain. Plus, with no more foreign pressure, the regime will lose control of the populace sooner or later. Being under siege is an necessary condition for the regime.

——
I am curious though it is quite unrealistic, that if Iran makes a big bargain, how Iran vs Turkey vs Gulf states bloc will play out. Also, given its young, educated population in what areas might Iran compete economically with India?

[bala]

This YT by DJT explains the operation hammer on Iran. It is the NATO press conference in Netherlands in Hague. There is some Q&A by the press. He called CNN as a fake news. Some discussion on oil from Iran - DJT wants to allow oil selling even to China. He says China can buy oil from US. (I think the Russian tariffs by congress on oil will not fly with DJT). DJT wants to talk with Iran to get peace but he is not hungup on getting a deal done with them, but no nuclear weapons for Iran is the bottomline. DJT thinks Iran is crippled and cannot do anything otherwise.

Worth watching to get the straight up from DJT instead of third party interpretation and bias, certainly not from CNN, NYT, MSNBC, Reuters, BBC, ABC, etc which write fake stuff and rubbish.

President Trump holds a press conference as NATO summit ends

[williams]

Iran overstretched itself by supporting multiple proxies and not developing enough deterrence capability against her enemies. There should be significant damage to both its scientific community as well as enrichment hardware. The whole notion of 60% enrichment only seems like an excuse for Israel to strike. If they had the facility and capability to enrich Uranium by 60% why would they stop there and how would Israel know exactly the timing they reached 60%. They either have the maal or they don't. Once you have mastered the capability to build a centrifuge it is just matter of money and time to get the 90% maal. Given the scope of this Fordo facility they should have got the 90% mall long before if they had running centrifuges. So there is no 60% maal anywhere it is just fake news. Iran is going the Libya way. Soon Ayatollahs will be killed and a less threatening regime will be established. Only other possibility is someone like China/NK giving them the maal and asking them to test their mall in a Iranian facility. Exactly how they did it for the Pakis. Pakis earned enough good will from Khan land to kind of close their eyes when the Chinese helped them. Question is what does Iran have to motivate China or Nk to do this for them? Oil alone is not enough. Only option for the Ayatollahs is the Mullah Munir way. Abject and complete surrender with oil resources presented in the plate to DJT. If that happens then DJT will leave them to manage the local Abduls while Khan's multinationals build ways to exploit the local oil.

[Amber G.]

Thanking people of India who 'stood firmly & vocally' with Iran.

Statement

[Amber G.]

P.S. Those who 'criticized' Trumps action on Iran (when Iran did not attack US directly) without taking others in the loop..I strongly advise reading the entire rant until the end. It keeps getting better.

[vera_k]

The whole notion of 60% enrichment only seems like an excuse for Israel to strike.

Building protected facilities underground is far more expensive than putting up a warehouse on the surface. If Iran had no intention of pursuing a weapons program, these underground fortified facilities would not exist. A nuclear power program cannot justify paying the additional cost to move things underground as it will raise electricity bills for every customer.

[bala]

Iran was a play by the Chinese who proliferated their missile tech and nuclear tech using North Korea as an in-between. The Deep State (we keep forgetting them) is using DJT to achieve their goals in the world. The rest are all kind of tamasha for ordinary folks to be entertained including the blockheads in US congress and the media duffers in the West. Israel needed to remove Iran from the equation of nuisance in the middle east, especially their proxies like hezbollah, hamas and houthis. Iran is also a threat to Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, etc. Oil flow from the middle east is crucial for world economy and getting this under control is the deep state paramount goal. The Ukraine war was to push the limits of NATO into Russia but the going is tough and not working out. DJT has arm twisted NATO to pay their fair share (5% expense) and believe it or not it is a deep state goal to reduce their costs defending Eurotards. Russia was told to lay off from Iran so that US and Israel can bomb them back. China has had to tuck its nefarious military tail and completely abandon Iran temporarily, its oil dependence on Iran is huge. Deep state has once again reminded China on who is the boss in the middle east. Gaza will be cleared out and become the las vegas of middle east attracting all kinds of gambling and vices with oil money, perfectly fits in with Deep State worldwide enterprises. India Pak descalation was achieved using munna Pak and will be rewarded with more weapons to take on India in the future. They have princeling candy waiting for a chance to takeover India. Oh Russia, will have to settle with east of Dneipr river territory and call it truce with Ukraine. Zels will settle somewhere with his wealth for retirement, similar to Pak generals and their pizza franchise. Deep state may decide to give DJT a Nobel prize to keep him happy for the 3.5 yrs remaining.

[A_Gupta]

IAEA “ This would also enable the IAEA to resume its crucial verification activities in Iran, including of its stockpile of more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, which Agency inspectors last verified a few days before the military conflict began.”

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressre ... -in-iran-5

I see no reason to believe that Iran’s 400 kg of HEU is fake news.

Also see June 20 statement to UNSC:
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/stateme ... -june-2025

[A_Gupta]

To put aside this CT that Iran had no HEU and is going Libya’s way, here is Tehran Times, April 18, 2021.

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/459987 ... 60-uranium

TEHRAN-- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Saturday that Iran has begun the process of enriching uranium to 60 percent fissile purity at the nuclear plant in Natanz, confirming earlier statements by Iranian officials.

"The Agency today verified that Iran had begun the production of UF6 enriched up to 60%... at the (above-ground) Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant," the UN nuclear watchdog said in a statement. More information was given in a confidential IAEA report to member states obtained by Reuters.

"According to Iran's declaration to the Agency, the enrichment level of the UF6 produced at PFEP was 55.3% U-235. The Agency took a sample of the produced UF6 for destructive analysis to independently verify the enrichment level declared by Iran. The results of this analysis will be reported by the Agency in due course," the report said.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's ambassador and permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, confirmed the Reuters report, stating, "The level of UF6 enrichment produced by Iran has been 55.3%."

Iran decided to enrich uranium to a purity of 60% in response to an explosion that damaged some equipment at the larger, underground fuel enrichment plant at Natanz on April 11.

[A_Gupta]

https://english.aawsat.com/world/511453 ... iolate-npt

Iran on Thursday criticized the statements of UN atomic agency chief Rafael Grossi, calling them “unprofessional” and “politically charged.”

Enriching uranium at 60% does not violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said.

At a press conference in Tokyo, Grossi had said Iran was “enriching (uranium) at 60%, so almost weapon level.”

Iran is not saying it isn’t enriching uranium to 60%, it is saying that such enrichment is allowed under NPT.

Iran’s stand is that NPT allows it to have weapon grade uranium as long as it does not use it in a weapons program.

[A_Gupta]

Tehran Times, June 14, 2021

Iran enriching uranium to 63%, says Rouhani

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/461999 ... ys-Rouhani

“ The International Atomic Energy Agency announced on May 13 that based on the samples taken from the Natanz nuclear site, Iran has enriched uranium up to 63%.

Iran decided to enrich uranium to 60 percent purity after Mossad operated an act of sabotage at the Natanz nuclear site.

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister who is leading the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna, announced on April 13 that Iran has sent a letter to the IAEA declaring that the Islamic Republic intends to start enriching uranium up to 60% purity.

On April 14, President Rouhani stated that the 60% enrichment is a response to mischiefs against Iran. “The fact that we have stated that we will operate IR-6 centrifuges in Natanz or we will increase enrichment to 60 percent, this is the answer to your malice. You cannot conspire against the Iranian nation and commit crimes in Natanz. When you commit a crime, we cut your hand.””

[Vayutuvan]

Latest from Trump:


Trump attacks CNN and The New York Times for factually busting claims of any major damage to Iranian nuclear facilities as was earlier claimed by Trump. Iran can easily recover from the setback in few months as per media reports.
[img...]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuQ2CtIXIAA ... ame=medium[/img]

Highly reliable media houses both, I am sure.

[Vayutuvan]

...a major stumbling block to get Nobel prize.

My reading is that DJT is not after a Nobel prize. It is just showmanship a la performative concern trolling Dems engage in with mussalman.

[Vayutuvan]

... meanwhile the 400 kg of enriched Uranium will be tracked and retrieved ...

That is the bone of contention. Would US/Israel humint/elint network be able to do this in time? I am sure Euros also have extensive spying network in Iran. Still considering how heavy this stuff is, it has very little bulk.

[Vayutuvan]

Also, given its young, educated population in what areas might Iran compete economically with India?

Not just young educated population, they also have oil. They will be very comfortable in terms of finances. Even now their per capita GDP on PPP basis is

$19,957[4] (95th)

(wikipedia page).

[Vayutuvan]

P.S. Those who 'criticized' Trumps action on Iran (when Iran did not attack US directly) without taking others in the loop..I strongly advise reading the entire rant until the end. It keeps getting better.
[img...]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuNvQCTXYAA ... ame=medium[/img]

I am answering in "Understanding the US" thread as it si US domestic politics. Thanks for understanding!

[Vayutuvan]

IAEA “ This would also enable the IAEA to resume its crucial verification activities in Iran, including of its stockpile of more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, which Agency inspectors last verified a few days before the military conflict began.”

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressre ... -in-iran-5

I see no reason to believe that Iran’s 400 kg of HEU is fake news.

I agree. It is not fake. But the question is where is it? Did they really move it out? Do they have enough working centrifuges to go from 60% to 90% without humint/elint spies coming to know about it. The snake has been flushed out of its nest and now is exposed to a boot coming down on its head.

[A_Gupta]

There were three sites the IAEA found that were not disclosed by Iran.
May 31, 2025
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202505319141

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has concluded that Iran carried out nuclear activities using undeclared material at three previously unreported sites—Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad—according to a confidential report circulated to member states, according to Reuters on Saturday.

The agency said Iran repeatedly failed to provide credible answers and had sanitized locations under scrutiny. It also found evidence that Iran retained unknown nuclear material or contaminated equipment at Turquzabad as recently as 2018.

[Amber G.]

Not buying all the crazy claims from Trump and his hardcore fans about the nuclear situation? You’re not alone. Here’s a quick reality check with some solid, scientifically and logically accurate points that can be validated by any reputable sources—stuff most people miss because they don’t get the basics of how nuclear stuff really works.

Will ignore obvious attempts at trolling or derailing the thread. Open to respectful discussion and fact-based pushback.

Under the 2015 JCPOA (“Obama deal”)
Enrichment limit: capped at 3.67% U-235, suitable only for civilian use
Stockpile limit: reduced by ~98% to 300 kg of low-enriched uranium
Breakout time: Estimated at 12 months to produce enough weapons-grade uranium, per U.S. intelligence

After the U.S. withdrawal (post-2018 Trump era)
Iran began breaching limits from 2019 onward
Enrichment levels advanced to:
20% U-235 at Fordow by early 2021
60% U-235 at Natanz and Fordow by mid-2021—the highest civilian-level enrichment globally
As of May 2025:
408 kg of 60%-enriched uranium (U-mass) in UF6 form
274 kg of 20%-enriched uranium, plus 5,508 kg of 5% LEU
Net stockpile ≈ 9,247 kg U-mass across all enrichment levels

Current Status

Current enrichment percent: mainly 60%, far exceeding JCPOA limits, with large holdings at Fordow
Breakout time today:
Based on the IAEA/ISIS analysis (May 17, 2025), Iran can produce ~233 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) from its 60% stock in ~3 weeks at Fordow
Can produce the first 25 kg WGU in 2–3 days
Using both Fordow and Natanz, they could build:
~11 bombs worth in the first month
~22 bombs by the end of 5 months

Important Context
Previously, (That is 2021 or latter - not in 2025 alone) using some 60% and feed from 20%, breakout for one bomb could be ~1 week or less (This is not a recent development, contrary to claims by Trump and Netanyahu)


Summary Table
Period Max Enrichment Stockpile (60%) Breakout Time
2015–2018 (JCPOA) 3.67% LEU ≤ 300 kg total LEU ~12 months
2019–mid-2021 Up to 20% LEU Growing stocks Several months ↘ late 2020
Mid-2021–Present 60% HEU 408 kg (60%) + others 2–3 days for first weapon; 3 weeks for ~9 bombs

Key Points
Percent enriched: Now at 60% U-235, nearing weapons-grade
Breakout time: Shrunk dramatically from ~1 year under JCPOA to days/weeks in 2025 (or even in 2022)
This shift reflects Iran's growing enrichment expertise and advanced centrifuge deployment

Additional Point
The amount of effort needed to enrich U to 4 or 5% is MORE than enriching 5% enriched U to make it 90% (weapons-grade). If a country can enrich to 20% U-235, it has already done 90%+ of the work to go to weapons-grade (90% enrichment).
Most of the people do not understand this - please see my earlier post(s))

---
Iran used high enrichment (without going to 90%) as a calculated means of applying pressure on the U.S. to negotiate.
(They consistently said "We are enriching because America left the deal. If they return, we will also return.” and many of people in US and Europe believe that. .. cont to next post..

[Amber G.]

^^^ (Cont..
IMO, (to be little devil's advocate but giving Iran's logic) It is fair and widely accepted—even by many Western analysts—that one of Iran’s core motivations for enriching to 20% and then 60% was to gain leverage and force the U.S. (and EU) back to the negotiating table.

Here’s why that assessment is justified:

- Evidence that Iran was using enrichment as leverage
1. Pattern of escalation after U.S. withdrawal (2018)
Iran stayed in the JCPOA for a full year after the U.S. unilaterally withdrew and reimposed sanctions.

In mid-2019, when diplomacy failed to yield sanctions relief, did Iran begin step-by-step breaches:

First exceeding 300 kg LEU cap.

Then going to 4.5%, then 20%, then 60% over two years.

( Implication: Iran gave space for diplomacy. Enrichment escalated only when pressure failed).

2. “Reversible breaches” strategy
Iran deliberately avoided enriching to 90% (weapons-grade), while remaining inside the NPT.

It repeatedly said all steps were “reversible” if sanctions were lifted and JCPOA terms honored.

This is classic coercive diplomacy: use technically legal, high-stakes moves to raise the cost of inaction.

. Statements from Iranian leaders
Iranian officials (like Foreign Minister Zarif and Atomic Energy chief Salehi) have said:

“We are enriching because America left the deal. If they return, we will also return.”
Enrichment wasn’t just about energy or medicine—it was a political bargaining chip.

Iran knows:

Enriching to 90% would cross a “nuclear weapons threshold” and likely provoke military or diplomatic crisis.

Enriching to 60% stays under that line, but still creates real proximity to breakout.

That proximity causes alarm in the West—thus, leverage.

So yes—there is some logic with Iran’s own behavior and statements to say that Iran used high enrichment (without going to 90%) as a calculated means of applying pressure on the U.S. to negotiate.

(Disclaimer - I was and am one of those person in US community which supported the Iran/USA nuclear deal in Obama era - and was very happy with it. Technically familiar with lots of details)

[Amber G.]

Few News items:
NYT:Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says

Trump Says U.S. and Iran to Meet

President Trump said on Wednesday that the United States and Iran would hold talks “next week,” while also casting doubt on the need to iron out a deal with Tehran about its nuclear program.

As the cease-fire deal between Israel and Iran was holding in its second day, Mr. Trump told reporters at a NATO conference that he didn’t “think it was necessary” for the talks to produce an agreement with Iran, presumably to give up its nuclear ambitions. It is unclear what format any new discussions would take. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was seeking direct talks between the countries.

CNN: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say
TimeOfIsrael Mossad hails Israel’s ‘historic’ Iran offensive, thanks CIA in rare public message

[Vayutuvan]

Nobody is believing "crazy claims" here. That is either a case of failing to understand a) due to misreading, or b) purposefully so that a starwman can be setup and taken down.

What is accepted by all:
- Iran's nuclear program has been greatly degraded after the destruction of three facilities and assassinations of some of their nuclear scientists. Iranian officials said as much this morning.
- JCPOA is dead. It is not coming back. There is no point arguing about whether it was good, bad, or ugly. Knowing technical details in depth or the legal matters is depth is all irrelevant now.

Unknown:
- Did the Iranians move that 60% enriched stockpile in time?
- Where did they move it?
- Did they distribute among many sites so that even if a few caches were traced and destroyed, they will still have enough material to make one or two bums?
- Is it traceable by the US and Israel by covert means before it is too late, i.e. they build the bomb?
- Do they have enough centrifuges to go to 90% and infrastructure to build the bomb, mate it to the delivery vehicle?
- Do they have means to deliver the bum to Israel and explode it reliably? Do they have tested working triggers?

[bala]

Excerpt from news reporting:

U.S. President Joe Biden, claimed in Jan 7, 2020 that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, “pleased that Iran has continued to agree to engage in discussions, in direct discussions with us and with our partners on how we move forward and what is needed to allow us to move back”.

Almost four years later, those discussions have long since fallen apart, replaced with…nothing, until March 26, 2024. The Biden administration now has no discernable policy on Iran and its nuclear program. Iran merited only a passing mention in the president’s State of the Union address.

All the Iranian enrichment of uranium was happening under Bidenwa watch, culminating in Iran with enriched Uranium. So Iran effectively conned Obummer into giving money/sanctions relief for terrorism, and quietly behind the scenes with the help of China, North Korea continued on enrichment path surreptiously without IAEA knowing about it. During Bidenwa' time they stepped on the gas and were on the brink of nuclear weapons. This was known by Israel and when DJT took office the plan to deal with them became real.

[A_Gupta]

Not buying all the crazy claims from Trump and his hardcore fans about the nuclear situation? You’re not alone. Here’s a quick reality check with some solid, scientifically and logically accurate points that can be validated by any reputable sources—stuff most people miss because they don’t get the basics of how nuclear stuff really works.

Let's add that Iran -- per their narration - escalated the level of its (publicly declared) maximum enrichment after each incident, such as US withdrawal from JCPOA, assassination of Qassem Soleimani, suspected Mossad sabotage, etc. etc. They saw this as their form of retaliation.

IMO, like Op Sindoor showed Pakistan the limits of its terrorism strategy, Operation Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer has taught Iran the limits of this constant escalation of uranium enrichment.

Now the game will change. Iran will either withdraw from the NPT and make a nuke, provided it can do so faster than the US and Israel can strike. Or else other less dire options.