Operation Sindoor - Bharat Strikes Back: Jai Hind!

[JE Menon]

It is not really all that complicated.

1. India accused Pakistani terrorists of carrying out the Pehalgam attack.

2. India was well within its rights to attack the terrorists in their den on May 7-8. This left open the option for Pakistan to self-deter and let the engagement subside there, without taking direct responsibility for the terrorists.

3. Pakistan chose to take responsibility for the terrorists, and acted on their behalf by attacking Indian forces across the border.

4. The Indian military establishment, backed by the political leadership, then responded to the Pakistani military attack by (a) declaring that henceforth it would not differentiate between the Pakistani state and terrorists, and (b) forcefully responding to the Pakistani attack on Indian military forces and assets on May 8-9 and May 9-10.

5. The counter-attack by the Indian military to the offensive action by the Pakistani military was calibrated to escalate disproportionately (or rather proportionate to what the Pakistanis wanted to do but could not because of insufficient competence) and resulted in unparalleled and unprecedented damage to Pakistani technical and asset capabilities.

6. The recognition of the reality, and the certainty that greater damage would be imposed on May 10-11 considering Pakistani air defences were degraded, is the reason by the Pak DGMO called (at least twice) and requested a ceasefire. In reality, Pakistan capitulated.

The decision to attack only the terrorists in the Indian strike on May 7, and not the Pakistani military as well at the same time is what is being referred to erroneously as "constraints" imposed by the political leadership. In fact, it is both the right and legal thing to do (from an international law point of view, so as to not be labelled the aggressor for whatever that is worth).

If a case is to be made, then the case should be that we should have continued for longer and taken our more assets. But the decision taken by the politico-military establishment, IMHO, was the absolutely appropriate thing to do in context, exactly at the point where they capitulated by asking for a ceasefire. As for the narrative, it continues. We should write our own, and forcefully so - at all levels, the goonda level social media warfare to the academic papers at defence institutions.

[Vayutuvan]

@JEM, No. 3 is the crucial point. That was the key. Pakis acted on behalf of the terrorists closing their "plausible deniability" escape route.

[Manish_P]

^ Pakis acted on behalf of Terrorists Pakis

The GoI has officially stated that we no longer differentiate between the non-uninformed and uniformed Jihadis
(something quite a few BRFites have known and stated for many many years now)

[sanjaykumar]

Whoa. That’s a lot of self-flagellation.

I’m not even sure if, given the RoE, those aircraft losses were preventable. Even so, Pakistan keeps losing wars to India because they convince themselves they won the previous one.

In fact, the next Tibet border conflict may be a surprise to the Chinese.India has developed and is currently enhancing long range weaponry. However given the long lead time long range delivery vehicles are subject to interdiction. Hence the effort on true scramjet propulsion. There are sufficient indicators that these are fructifying.

[Aditya G]

....If a case is to be made, then the case should be that we should have continued for longer and taken our more assets. But the decision taken by the politico-military establishment, IMHO, was the absolutely appropriate thing to do in context, exactly at the point where they capitulated by asking for a ceasefire. As for the narrative, it continues. We should write our own, and forcefully so - at all levels, the goonda level social media warfare to the academic papers at defence institutions.

Not a day has passed where I dont wish we had continued to drive home the missile assault a bit longer, asked the navy to destroy karachi etc.

However, one has to acknowledge that we got away cheap in Op Sindoor.... no large scale civil casualty (except for some lives lost in LoC areas), no spectacular loss of fighters on ground, no public visuals of our bases or cities burning etc.

Any mature decision maker in the hot seat would take the win. Modi did well to take it and clearly set the doctrine for next time.

Lets acknowledge however, this was an uneasy victory thanks to a vexxing question - what if we had pressed home the advantage? echos of returning 93k POWs, returning Haji Pir pass etc

Till next time then.

[Anujan]

Whenever people talk about Indian aircraft losses, I am obligated to remind everyone that Indian aircraft are smaller, darker, hard to spot at night and therefore can use their cunning to slip between Pakistani aircraft. Indian bombs typically point down and are only good for ground attacks. That is why there are satellite pictures of 11 Pakistani airbases with numerous buildings with missing roofs, some with missing walls as well. My personal favorite is the Bholari hangar, with the wall laying on the ground 200 feet away. Then there are 2 terrorist headquarters with missing roofs and walls. Let us not get into numerous "alleged" attacks on deeply buried bunkers. It is all a result of cunningness and deception of an incompetent poorly trained Indian airforce

Pakistani aircraft on the other hand can make tight turns, their missiles are thicker and longer and highly polished. Their missiles fly up (unlike Indian bombs that fly down) and can hit aircraft in the air. That is why there is intense speculation about Indian aircraft losses. It is all because of superior flying skills, better equipment and training of Pakistan Air Force.

Let us not get distracted by numerous losses on the ground and complete capitulation of Pakistan from deeply introspecting why there is alleged news of Indian aircraft being downed.

PS> For chess lovers: Is it true that Gukesh lost a Queen, A bishop and two pawns to Magnus even though Indian commentators claim that he won against Magnus? Is poor training to blame on part of Gukesh? Why did he lose so much material? Is his diet wrong? Does he need a foreign coach? Should we discuss it here or in sports dhaaga?

[Manish_P]

...
Pakistani aircraft on the other hand can make tight turns, their missiles are thicker and longer and highly polished.
....

It's not fair that you do not mention about their being 'Fair'. Thankfully there are analcysts like Unfair for that.

[Bala Vignesh]

Wow!! The Randi rona starts everytime there is a new piece of information or media bite is seen in mainstream media.

Folks need to understand that we live in a real world, not an ideal one. There are limitations to what can and cannot be done for many reasons, some beyond our ken given our limited perspective. Accept the win, learn the lessons, move on and develop the platforms to workaround the shortcomings.

[JE Menon]

@JEM, No. 3 is the crucial point. That was the key. Pakis acted on behalf of the terrorists closing their "plausible deniability" escape route.

Absolutely, this made crystal clear the connection or rather the umbilical cord, that links and merges the Pak military and the terrorists. It is also an undeniable point to show that link to the world (not that we need to, but it is there in full public view for all parties). More importantly, it opened up an undeniable avenue for us to link the Pak military and the terrorists and justify our decision to equate future terrorism to this combine.

So yes, a big win.

[JE Menon]

Not a day has passed where I dont wish we had continued to drive home the missile assault a bit longer, asked the navy to destroy karachi etc.

However, one has to acknowledge that we got away cheap in Op Sindoor.... no large scale civil casualty (except for some lives lost in LoC areas), no spectacular loss of fighters on ground, no public visuals of our bases or cities burning etc.

Any mature decision maker in the hot seat would take the win. Modi did well to take it and clearly set the doctrine for next time.

Lets acknowledge however, this was an uneasy victory thanks to a vexxing question - what if we had pressed home the advantage? echos of returning 93k POWs, returning Haji Pir pass etc

Till next time then.

100% agree. I think there's not an Indian that holds the civilizational interest at heart who wishes we did not do orders of magnitude more damage. Let alone the military or the BJP political leadership. Nevertheless, it is commendable that they had the sagacity to "take the win" as you put it rightly. I mean - at a point when their airspace was exposed, when their navy was wide open to total destruction, and when troop concentrations could have been daisy-cut - GoI chose to exercise restraint.

Could things have been different? Yes. But we stopped when it was clear we had done severe damage, had the upper hand, and when they capitulated with a ceasefire request. In short, we acted responsibly. The world does not need another economy-undermining conflict. Tons of investors with money in India would have had to scramble. As it has come to pass, the war was barely a blip on our economic radar, and in fact may further encourage investors that they are dealing with a state that puts "sanity over self-satisfaction", that knows when to "take the win" and return to normalcy with minimal cost to itself. In other words, you can barely find a stronger signal of enduring stability. Major indicator for big money players, which is exactly what we need. We need them to take further large vested interests in our stability. And they will.

Moreover, Pakistan is not going to change. It will keep on its path of self-destruction via the jihadi export option. So further damage to them will not change their essence. Remember, we split them in two. They have only gotten worse.

For us, there can be no clearer signal and datapoint that the only outcome vis a vis Pakistan that we must aim for is the dismantling of that state. And to ensure that whatever remains in that space has neither the means nor the motivation to re-engage India via the Jihadi option.

The means to achieve that though must be efficient, with minimum impact on ourselves. In a way, if you look closely enough at the big picture, I suspect that is really what is happening. Of course, we can quibble about the speed, the optimality, etc... but broadly speaking I suspect that is where we are heading.

[sanjaykumar]

This much and no more may be a civilsational calling.

Warfare elsewhere seems to be incontinent.

The restraint displayed by India is not lost on discerning observers. Not that they were really restrained in causing crippling damage to Pakistan’s ability to prosecute war. AEW, radars and missile sites rendered moot.

India could then have launched a devastating air and missile assault.

The fact that they demonstrated an almost contemptuous willingness to stop is what underlines India’s maturing military power and its political sagacity. Well done.

[Aditya_V]

Not disagreeing with ceasefire, but better to arm ourselves double time especially and get the local MIC rolling if Chinese Satellites are part of the Paki military then they are fair game as well.

And do not stop the economic warfare against pakis, we need to weaken and split them big time.