Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[drnayar]

New UK eVisas for Pakistani students and workers - GOV.UK https://share.google/kul8ZvFe7xQXwlnVW

Admin..pl move to appropriate thread

[A_Gupta]

Australia’s goods trade with US is USD 51.3 billion (2024) with the US having a surplus of $17.9 billion.

Australia’s goods trade with China is USD 325 billion (2024) with Australia having a surplus of almost $32 billion.

In the face of Trump policy, I wonder how far the bonds of English heritage/racial and cultural affinity will withstand $$$$.

[Vayutuvan]

In the face of Trump policy, I wonder how far the bonds of English heritage/racial and cultural affinity will withstand $$$$.

Australia has more affinity with Europe and Anglosphere - UK, Canada, NZ - than the US. Why would they have cultural affinity to the US? Baseball vs Cricket, Football vs football, American English vs British English, Directly elected of President vs Hereditary HoS, Separate executive and legislative vs unified executive and legislative, two-party system where horsetrading happens within the parties during primaries vs multi party where horsetrading happens after elections, large population vs small population, very fertile land vs huge desert.

[A_Gupta]

The Australian embassy in Washington DC says:

G'day! This is the official account of the Embassy of Australia in the United States.

The relationship between Australia and the USA is unique in its breadth, depth and length, and is characterised by genuine cultural affinity and a spirit of collaboration.

But if you really want to know, you can easily look up the basis of the Australian-US relationship (prior to Trump).

The relevance to India is obvious about which way Australia leans (at least until India is a third pole towards which Australia can lean).

[Vayutuvan]

The Australian embassy in Washington DC says:

They are doing their job, i.e. hard sales, unlike US amby to India who was dancing bhangra.

[ricky_v]

https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/the-f ... lar-world/

While the United States remains the global leader in space capabilities, its ecosystem shows fragility. Emerging space powers like Turkey, India, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates have adopted flexible, multi-vector space and defense strategies. These countries provide lessons in adaptability, resilience, and co-development in a multipolar world. They offer potential models that can enrich how Washington approaches capability development and alliance management. It is time for the United States to treat capable mid-tier partners not as challenges to American space primacy, but as co-creators of spacepower’s future.

Perhaps even more problematic is how Washington tends to engage its partners. For decades, American alliance management has often followed a model in which allies are treated more as end-users or purchasers of U.S.-made systems than as equal co-developers of strategic capabilities. This patron-client approach may generate short-term defense sales but discourages indigenous innovation, undermines technological sovereignty among partners, and limits Washington’s ability to foster real capability redundancy across alliances. While the the United States seeks to build coalitions to counter Chinese advances, it risks surrounding itself with technologically dependent allies instead of empowered contributors.

Establishing the Turkish Space Agency in 2018 reflected more than symbolic ambition. Within a few years, Turkey advanced national satellite programs such as Türksat 6A, the National Indigenous Earth Observation Satellite, and the Göktürk intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance series while developing early-stage human spaceflight capabilities in collaboration with Axiom Space. Turkey embedded technology transfer and training into its contracts through these arrangements, ensuring knowledge acquisition alongside operational milestones.

Even more significant is Ankara’s diplomatic strategy. Turkey works with American partners in its space endeavors while actively engaging in non-Western frameworks. It is a member of the China-influenced Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, pursues regional leadership through the Islamic Space Cooperation Organization and Turkic state collaborations, and has avoided signing the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. This careful balance maximizes learning opportunities and diplomatic flexibility without complete dependence on any one bloc.

side bar from wiki:
apsco:

The Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) is an inter-governmental organization operated as a non-profit independent body with full international legal status.[1][2][3] It is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.[4][1] Members include agencies from:[5] Bangladesh, China, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and Turkey.

Its stated objectives include:[9]

To promote and strengthen the development of collaborative space programs among its Member States by establishing the basis for cooperation in peaceful applications of space science and technology.
To take effective actions to assist the Member States in such areas as space technological research and development, applications and training by elaborating and implementing space development policies.
To promote cooperation, joint development, and to share achievements among the Member States in space technology and its applications as well as in space science research by tapping the cooperative potential of the region.
To enhance cooperation among relevant enterprises and institutions of the Member States and to promote the industrialization of space technology and its applications.
To contribute to the peaceful uses of outer space in the international cooperative activities in space technology and its applications.
As of 2010, the organization defined ten projects on designing, building and launching light satellites, middle class satellites weighing 500–600 kg, research satellites, remote-sensing and telecommunications satellites.

back to the article:

India has followed a different, equally instructive path. The Indian Space Research Organisation has delivered impressive capabilities on modest budgets, achieving lunar landings, conducting Mars missions, and advancing preparations for human spaceflight with remarkable efficiency. Its expanding private sector adds further energy, moving into launch services, satellite production, and small payload delivery. Although India’s strategic partnership with the United States has grown, reflected in expanded NASA collaboration and increasing Artemis dialogue, New Delhi maintains longstanding ties with Russia, France, and others, preserving the flexibility that major powers often require.

South Korea offers another version of this model. It has rapidly expanded space capabilities while remaining deeply integrated within the U.S. alliance system. Its KSLV-II launch vehicle, substantial defense conglomerates, and growing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and missile defense projects demonstrate how industrialized allies can contribute meaningfully. While several middle powers have the potential to become co-producers of strategic capability, U.S. policy has not always supported this path. In some cases, such as South Korea’s space launch ambitions, citing security concerns, Washington actively slowed indigenous development — particularly regarding missile proliferation risks on the Korean Peninsula. As a result, South Korea relied on Russian technology for the KSLV-I space launcher’s main stages after U.S. restrictions on technology transfer. Long-standing missile range limitations under U.S.-South Korea bilateral missile guidelines and the Missile Technology Control Regime further constrained its program. Seoul’s participation in joint development and research partnerships with the United States shows how cooperation can evolve beyond the conventional buyer-seller relationship.

The United Arab Emirates demonstrates a different form of strategic agility. Using financial strength and diplomatic finesse, the Emiratis have built partnerships across the United States, Japan, Russia, and China. Its Hope Mars mission, the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre astronaut program, and involvement in the Artemis Accords illustrate how smaller states can become influential players in what was once a superpower domain.

What distinguishes these emerging actors is not the scale of their capabilities but the structure of their national ecosystems. Their approaches combine multi-vector diplomacy, agile partnerships across public and private sectors, and a strong emphasis on developing sovereign technological expertise and institutional know-how. They do not aim to replace the United States, but to ensure that no single dependency defines their space ambitions. While Washington continues to approach alliance management primarily through arms sales and access agreements, these smaller powers show a different, arguably more resilient, way to build capability.

Additionally, empowering regional actors through joint research and development initiatives, multi-party mission planning, and shared industrial frameworks can build long-term resilience. A useful example is the NASA–JAXA Lunar Gateway partnership, which combines co-development, equitable technology access, and joint mission planning. Treating capable allies as equals in design, not just deployment, is the next step in creating a truly multipolar spacepower architecture.

[drnayar]

Rutte/ NATO on record threatening India China and Brazil with 100% secondary sanctions !!.. the bugger is braying for WW 3.

[A_Gupta]

Rutte is merely echoing Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-says-br ... p_catchall

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Wednesday that countries such as Brazil, China and India could be hit very hard by secondary sanctions if they continued to do business with Russia.

Rutte made the comment while meeting with senators in the U.S. Congress the day after President Donald Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened "biting" secondary tariffs of 100% on the buyers of Russian exports unless there is a peace deal in 50 days.

"My encouragement to these three countries, particularly is, if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard," Rutte told reporters, who met with Trump on Monday and agreed the new steps.

"So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way," Rutte added.

[gakakkad]

https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/the-f ... lar-world/

While the United States remains the global leader in space capabilities, its ecosystem shows fragility. Emerging space powers like Turkey, India, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates have adopted flexible, multi-vector space and defense strategies. These countries provide lessons in adaptability, resilience, and co-development in a multipolar world. They offer potential models that can enrich how Washington approaches capability development and alliance management. It is time for the United States to treat capable mid-tier partners not as challenges to American space primacy, but as co-creators of spacepower’s future.

Perhaps even more problematic is how Washington tends to engage its partners. For decades, American alliance management has often followed a model in which allies are treated more as end-users or purchasers of U.S.-made systems than as equal co-developers of strategic capabilities. This patron-client approach may generate short-term defense sales but discourages indigenous innovation, undermines technological sovereignty among partners, and limits Washington’s ability to foster real capability redundancy across alliances. While the the United States seeks to build coalitions to counter Chinese advances, it risks surrounding itself with technologically dependent allies instead of empowered contributors.

author is a paid toorki troll and the article is basically astroturfing their SUARCO level "space" program. In what universe is the Indian space program anywhere in the same level as the other 3.

the phor phaathers all in delululand .

[gakakkad]

Rutte is merely echoing Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-says-br ... p_catchall

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Wednesday that countries such as Brazil, China and India could be hit very hard by secondary sanctions if they continued to do business with Russia.

Rutte made the comment while meeting with senators in the U.S. Congress the day after President Donald Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened "biting" secondary tariffs of 100% on the buyers of Russian exports unless there is a peace deal in 50 days.

"My encouragement to these three countries, particularly is, if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard," Rutte told reporters, who met with Trump on Monday and agreed the new steps.

"So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way," Rutte added.

how much tariffs is EU getting from US?

Rutte does not care about his economy tanking as long as they take the rest of work particularly the ruskies with them

[bala]

With BRICS renamed as Building resilience innovation cooperation sustainability, India is getting away from grouping of nations and becoming neutral. Meanwhile at the other grouping called Shanghai Cooperation organization SCO, India has asserted that the charter group calls from condemnation of terrorism worldwide. EAM Jaisankar has delivered such a message to China. Recently some defector from China leaked a strategic doc between China and Russia. The doc states that China will prevent West from taking out Russia via Ukraine war. If Putin were to be removed then China will support a communist takeover of Russia and prevent the expansion of the West into Russia. This also secures for China a good supply of Oil needed for their economy.

The Optics of Emperor Eleven meeting with EAM Jaisankar is sending shockwaves throughout the world and the RIC association is a nightmare for Western / US nations. China is now waiting for Modi to clinch some deals with India. The Chinese are trying to salvage their H&D after the debacle in Pak and Iran. CCP is seeing the writing on the wall, especially after US DJT's tariff war. Now China is hoping to cash in on any advantage India may obtain due to its growth and also US - India trade dynamics. There are only self interests in geopolitics.

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan talks about such developments in geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3MA7WYc8WM

[bala]

-- wrong thread - deleted --

[ricky_v]

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the ... a-is-here/

India’s motives for reaching a deal with China at this point also must be understood. Although the underlying and long-running geopolitical rivalry with China persists, India cannot engage China as an open adversary. As a recent paper from Chatham House observes, India is neither and will not be a Western ally against China anytime soon, nor can it confront China at present. There are several reasons for this outcome. First, in 2024, despite prolonged and complex negotiations, the border issue with China was solved. Second, India has always adamantly insisted upon its unquestioned strategic autonomy and will not be an adjunct to other states’ policies. So, while it is associated with the US, Australia, and Japan in the Quad, it is by no means their ally against China. Third, as this report indicates, “India’s dependence on China as a supplier of components and raw materials for its industrial development. That reliance undermines the narrative sometimes advanced by Western policymakers in which India emerges as a beneficiary of the push to de-risk or diversify global supply chains away from China.”

Fourth, China’s unwavering support for Pakistan in the recent crisis between India and Pakistan was crucial in denying India a victory. Meanwhile, Pakistan supports terrorist attacks on India and uses its nuclear shield and Chinese weapons transfers to inhibit a decisive win and prevent India from being the undisputed hegemon on the subcontinent of South Asia. Fifth, the Trump Administration’s erratic policy on tariffs threatens India’s economic growth, undermines any concept of mutual trust with Washington, and erodes the basis of the Indo-American partnership, which is the most Washington can realistically attain.


Indian willingness to accept the status quo on the border and other issues also confirms the correctness of China’s view that India, while a potential threat, cannot compete with China as a great power in Asia and allows it to downplay, if not ignore, Indian claims. i.e, despite the border agreement with India, China is continuing to advance its claims in the territory of Arunachal Pradesh in Northeast India. Thus, having confirmed its apparent victory in talks between Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar and Chairman Xi at the Shanghai Cooperative Organization summit, China greenlighted the Russian proposal to revive this Troika. Thus, China has won a significant diplomatic victory.

this misunderstanding, willful or not, will fuel the the western lens on india's power matrix for some time, the assertion is that india could not become the sole power in the subcontinent because china supplied military goods and services to pakistan, and india does not have the strength or capacity to counter this, so it has agreed to genial relationship with china, and by extension russia; many actions from the western bow can flow from this erroneous assertion

[S_Madhukar]

If this is what DS writes then may God help them. Nobody can help a wilful ignorant.

[chanakyaa]

Stablecoin/Crypto: Global capital/trade flows are about to be replaced by imaginary numbers.

From Gold --> Paper Currency --> IOUs --> to Imaginary numbers...

8min video
https://youtu.be/jN1BEQI0jVk?si=DJ6gf9BnQis00KEW

[A_Gupta]

https://www.tipranks.com/news/investors ... e_vignette

According to an analysis by Citigroup, which is based on European Central Bank (ECB) data, European bonds saw nearly 100 billion Euros (US$116.4 billion) of buying from outside the continent in May, the largest amount in more than a decade.
Analysts at Citigroup, which is one of the largest U.S. commercial banks, say the data shows that European assets are benefiting from a move away from . The 100 billion Euros of net inflows into European bonds with maturities longer than one year that was seen in May were the largest on a monthly basis since 2014, says Citigroup.

[A_Gupta]

Onwards to a new world order!

Argentina eases visa requirements for Chinese nationals in new overture to Beijing

Move comes as President Milei seeks to shift foreign policy amid delayed US trade talks
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... re-beijing

[A_Gupta]

Per Wiki, these are India's largest trading partners. In terms of Vikasit Bharat 2047, are the discussions on BRF commensurate to these countries' relative importance to India? Note eg. Indonesia ranks ahead of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and France.

Code: Select all

Rank	Country	Exports	Imports	Total Trade	Trade Balance
1.       United States	88.02	43.01	130.3	45.01
2	 China	16.66	101.75	118.41	-85.09
3	 United Arab Emirates	35.63	48.02	83.65	-12.39
4	 Russia	4.26	61.43	65.69	-57.17
5	 Saudi Arabia	11.56	31.81	43.37	-20.25
6	 Singapore	14.41	21.20	35.61	-6.79
7	 Iraq	3.35	30.00	33.35	-26.65
8	 Indonesia	5.99	23.41	29.40	-17.42
9	 Hong Kong	8.24	20.45	28.69	-12.21
10	 South Korea	6.42	21.14	27.56	-14.72
11	 Netherlands	22.37	4.97	27.34	17.40
12	 Germany	9.84	16.27	26.11	-6.43
13	 Australia	7.94	16.16	24.10	-8.22
14	 Japan	5.16	17.70	22.86	-12.54
15	  Switzerland	1.53	21.24	22.77	-19.71
16	 United Kingdom	12.92	8.42	21.34	4.50
17	 Malaysia	7.26	12.75	20.01	-5.49
18	 South Africa	8.71	10.54	19.25	-1.83
19	 Belgium	7.84	7.24	15.08	0.60
20	 Thailand	5.04	9.91	14.95	-4.87
21	 Vietnam	5.47	9.35	14.81	-3.86
22	 Italy	8.77	5.80	14.56	2.97
23	 Qatar	1.70	12.38	14.08	-10.68
24	 France	7.14	6.24	13.38	0.90
25	 Bangladesh 11.06	1.84	12.91	9.22

[Rudradev]

In the top ten: UAE, Singapore & Hong Kong are prominent transhipment destinations (though UAE does provide some oil & gas of its own, the others don't produce a whole lot internally). There's a different sort of geopolitical discussion to be had around those types of partners. Such as: who are they fronting for, and why?

It's also interesting that India's trade with China plus Hong Kong actually exceeds that with the US in volume. We hear a lot about sanctions (or tarrifs these days) in the US context, but what would happen if China decided to sanction India? Something to think about, at least in the medium-to-long term.

[A_Gupta]

@Rudradev, some of the Microsoft CoPilot AI answer to your question about the UAE - why does India re-export via the UAE rather than directly export to the destination countries includes the following below.

Before that, I think finding an analysis of which of these trading relationships have the most potential to grow is also strategically relevant.

On the UAE question, here is an answer, and I'm still pondering whether it is symbiosis or whether it is parasitism that India permits by not doing the needful policy and diplomatic changes.

Under the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), more than 80% of goods traded between India and the UAE enjoy reduced or zero tariffs.

Once goods clear customs in the UAE, they can be re-exported with “Emirati origin” certificates, often qualifying for preferential or duty-free access under the UAE’s own network of free trade agreements.

This two-step origination can circumvent high duties or stringent non-tariff barriers that a direct Indian export would face in certain markets.

and

UAE banks provide trade finance, letters of credit and Islamic finance products attuned to global commodity flows, which can be more accessible than Indian export financing for certain SMEs (small and medium enterprises).

Minimal corporate taxes and streamlined company-registration in free zones encourage Indian trading houses to set up subsidiaries that can invoice in Dirhams, euros or dollars—bypassing volatility in INR transactions.

Re-exporting from the UAE also avoids India’s export-bonus regulations or agricultural export quotas in certain sectors.

[A_Gupta]

This following is a bit of a rant.

Until very recently, India was basically a means of virtue signaling by the rest of the world's elite. "We've given them aid, lectured them on human rights and democracy, blah blah, and see, they have made some progress because of our efforts despite their backward religion and culture and food habits, etc. etc." Or, "we are advancing the class revolution in India, liberating people, encouraging mutinies against oppression, oppression, oppression, casteism, patriarchy, anti-minorityism, blah, blah, blah". Virtue signal, award yourself to hang certificates on your walls. See how they salaam us, and produce poverty ***** to entertain us. But on the rest, India can be safely ignored."

In what is like a blink of an eye in terms of history, India is now an emerging threat, a disruption to their way of life.

And this rant is because, IMO, they realize the changed situation better than Indians themselves.

What they still control is the information flow via X/Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, Telegram, Truth Social, BlueSky.

Now, Indians have successfully wielded these in some overt campaigns, e.g, https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news ... 2024-03-13

But more insidious are the ones aimed at shaping Indian public opinion. I believe there are active campaigns aimed at shaping Indian opinion in directions that would be detrimental to India's rise. IMO, Indians need to realize that they are in the midst of active information warfare and must guard themselves accordingly. This is not a peacetime information landscape.

[chetak]

This following is a bit of a rant.

Until very recently, India was basically a means of virtue signaling by the rest of the world's elite. "We've given them aid, lectured them on human rights and democracy, blah blah, and see, they have made some progress because of our efforts despite their backward religion and culture and food habits, etc. etc." Or, "we are advancing the class revolution in India, liberating people, encouraging mutinies against oppression, oppression, oppression, casteism, patriarchy, anti-minorityism, blah, blah, blah". Virtue signal, award yourself to hang certificates on your walls. See how they salaam us, and produce poverty ***** to entertain us. But on the rest, India can be safely ignored."

In what is like a blink of an eye in terms of history, India is now an emerging threat, a disruption to their way of life.

And this rant is because, IMO, they realize the changed situation better than Indians themselves.

What they still control is the information flow via X/Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, Telegram, Truth Social, BlueSky.

Now, Indians have successfully wielded these in some overt campaigns, e.g, https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news ... 2024-03-13

But more insidious are the ones aimed at shaping Indian public opinion. I believe there are active campaigns aimed at shaping Indian opinion in directions that would be detrimental to India's rise. IMO, Indians need to realize that they are in the midst of active information warfare and must guard themselves accordingly. This is not a peacetime information landscape.

Here is another take, A_Gupta ji.


The tyranny of needless and out of sync politeness identifies and defines the Hindu's most fundamental social and cultural dysfunction - niceness. The imperious monocracy that ruled India for the first five six odd decades was obsessed with the pursuit of the nobel and they thought it (geopolitical niceness) the best way to achieve that goal, and the sly goras encouraged this approach, because they had control over the narrative that was allegedly Indian. The monocracy did autocratically award themselves (not nice) three Bharat Ratnas while pettily stopping similar awards to Sardar Patel and Ambedkar.

unfortunately, the Hindu's have clubbed this unfortunate trait of niceness with the lack of shatrubodh, a near fatal combination, but with the arrival of the Modi govt, especially combined with the nuanced aggressiveness of S. Jaishankar ji, India has acquired a much thicker skin, as well as, the hitherto lacking geopolitically vital and nationally important character virtue that originated with the colonial masters, the attribute of the courage to be disliked.

Thankfully, both of these defects have since been rectified more than adequately by S. Jaishankar ji, backed up by Mod ji and his govt. Sadly, the babooze termites still continue to be a big hurdle

This change in avatar has caused major consternation among the rule makers who expect the rule takers to cooperate docilely and in the time honored manner that they were/are accustomed to, especially a well trained, obsequious, groveling, and submissive ex colonial subject like India that was ruled by the mafia parivar. It changed with the advent of the BJP govts, starting with ABV and continuing with Modiji.

The rules based global order is now changing in ways that is most upsetting to the established and recognized power centers.

[S_Madhukar]

On a personal note my mataji went thru a phase of making me the nicest Ram-like son when I was around 12 … forcing me to share my toys, chocolates with kids in the neighbourhood… even though I was already quite generous and friendly.

One fine day she decided that the Gems packet she has bought for me was to be given to a neighbour’s daughter because she saw my Gems and threw a tantrum … despite Aunty saying not needed this was to be done since I was only son and I should be treating the girl as a sister… She wasn’t a commie or ideological but …!

Point being playing Nice beyond a point to get good karma for your own sake is a selfish behaviour… Sacrificing other people to make you look good… typical Indian neta and Babu and woke behaviour should not be tolerated!

[Vayutuvan]

IMO, Indians need to realize that they are in the midst of active information warfare and must guard themselves accordingly. This is not a peacetime information landscape.

That is why I post stuff in the understanding the US thread about those groups in the US who give succor to INDI alliance and try to portray Modi as the butcher of Gujuraat (second u should pronounced as oo, not a).

[Rudradev]

This following is a bit of a rant.

Until very recently, India was basically a means of virtue signaling by the rest of the world's elite. "We've given them aid, lectured them on human rights and democracy, blah blah, and see, they have made some progress because of our efforts despite their backward religion and culture and food habits, etc. etc." Or, "we are advancing the class revolution in India, liberating people, encouraging mutinies against oppression, oppression, oppression, casteism, patriarchy, anti-minorityism, blah, blah, blah". Virtue signal, award yourself to hang certificates on your walls. See how they salaam us, and produce poverty ***** to entertain us. But on the rest, India can be safely ignored."

In what is like a blink of an eye in terms of history, India is now an emerging threat, a disruption to their way of life.

And this rant is because, IMO, they realize the changed situation better than Indians themselves.

Two things have changed forever since Op Sindoor (the changes were coming anyway, but O.S. sealed the deal with ringing finality).

1) US no longer thinks in terms of "boosting India as a bulwark against China". One, because India has shown it will never submit to bring someone else's bulwark. Two— and most importantly— India has shown that in terms of capacity it is already there.

India is not yet equal to China in terms of PCI or GDP, of course. But in terms of being a political and military rival, both regionally & globally? Hell yes. This was shown through multiple direct military confrontations (Doklam, Galwan, Yangtse), a humiliating demonstration of the technical inferiority of Chinese armaments (Op Sindoor), a humiliating display of the ability to conclusively smack down China's prize nuclear-armed terror-sponsoring vassal state (Op Sindoor again) and the capacity to outplay China in the diplomatic arena both within the region (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal) and beyond (Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Africa, LatAm).

For the US' purposes, China IS already contained by India, to the maximum extent of containment that they could ever realistically expect India to provide. China will no more provoke an open war with India than the US would with China. The capacity of India to impose severe & unacceptable costs on China across multiple dimensions is now well established... and together with the unwillingness of China to accept a near-peer competitor in its own near-abroad, India's status as a bulwark against China is already realized.

So, for the US' agenda, the new priority is triangulating India & China against each other; and recognizing that this will quite often involve aiding China or its proxies at thwarting some Indian goal or aspiration. Washington now sees India and China both as budding hegemons— although China is still bigger, the day India can & will have the capacity to pose an equally significant threat is now an inevitable milestone marked on their calendar.

2) China now no longer thinks of the US as being far-and-away its only major threat, with India being in an inferior class of nations to be easily bullied & smacked around.

Oh sure, China WISHES India still remained in that subsidiary class of nations... they continue to view the rightful status of India as a humble tributary to the Middle Kingdom, and to be offended that New Delhi does not quietly accept this.

But Op Sindoor added something more to that sense of being "offended"— anxiety, concern, a twinge of fear. India had flown placidly under the radar for so long, being non-confrontational, seeking cooperation, and maneuvering defensively at most even in response to PLA's border provocations. It remained, in their eyes, a country that meekly went before the UN with dossier in hand after a terrorist attack from even their proxy, Pakistan... that reeled from lawless indiscipline, chaotic identity-based divisions, and crippling sociopolitical disunity that would forever leave it in the dust compared to China.

Or maybe not forever. A lot of conventional wisdom has very quickly gone down the drain in Beijing, even if there is a great deal of institutional inertia arrayed against any Chinese commentator openly admitting it.

Meanwhile, recent attempts by multiple power centers in the CCP to curb Xi Jinping's autocratic authority seem to be bearing fruit. Several of his old-guard rivals elbowing their way to more prominent positions are economic pragmatists, such as Hu Jintao. They sense the vulnerability of China's economy to the burgeoning asset crisis, poor domestic demand (vs debt-funded overcapacity), and bleak demographic outlook in the long term. In their view, the solution lies in repairing fences with the US & EU and returning to the days of heady globalism.

And, of course, they are keen to enlist American partnership to contain the rise of a troublesome rival who has spent the last decade-plus eroding China's economic primacy in global trade networks, aided by Xi's misguided arrogance towards the West. India, in other words.

Indians better f*king wake up. There are no friends to be had in high places anymore. For better or for worse, Sindoor has put India's geopolitical cards on the table. Every power on earth has taken note... and is swiftly maneuvering to calibrate, evaluate, and respond.

The responses are incoming already across the information battlespace: social media, traditional media, NGO networks, academic conferences and more. Unlike Pakistani missiles, they will land where targeted — and if you haven't taken proper cover, you will suffer damage.

How will you counter?

[bala]

After Op Sindoor, India has established the quadrilateral tussle between R, C, I and U. Eurotards are really under NATO of U. Of the quadrilateral, U and R are the strongest in terms of military prowess. R now has more experience in actual wars and some say that U is not ready for protracted wars as shown in Ukraine which is mostly defensive posture for U. Russia realized after Op Sindoor I's capability and immediately called for R I C unity against U. The U is worried about such an alliance. R got C backing for Ukraine, but C is not supplying any equipment to R. R deftly poached North Korea (NK) away from C in its Ukraine fight. NK ditched China Beidou and adopted Russian GLONASS system. The US hope of using I against C like a pawn is now on shaky grounds. There is a deep worry within U that I is leapfrogging in the military domain and could with R become invincible. The brahmos has put a fear factor and Akash Teer of India is more effective than Israel's Iron dome. Indian Navy demonstrated who is the boss in Indian Ocean. C has scaled back its belligerence on I and is more circumspect whether it can hold on to Tibet anymore. Phillippines with Brahmos is a huge headache for C. If Vietnam (which has thrashed C once) has brahmos then C will double sweat.

Many people are fooled by C and its military strength. It turns out C is a hollywood facade pretending to be a great power when clearly numbers don't imply military strength. Much of C equipment is a copy of other nations equipment, firstly starting with the Soviet Union and then espionage of U equipment. All C copies are one big rubbish heap that don't work in actual combat situation. Much of their gee whiz eqipment has not been battle tested and also the PLA is ill prepared in using them. The PLA itself has been devasted in top leadership by CCP and is in no mood to fight. In Op Sindoor and Iran bombing, C equipment has been conclusively proven to be bad copies and don't work one bit. In military might, poor equipment means that it would become a turkey shoot in actual warfare and C knows that numbers will become glorified rubbish heaps in war. Once the AD is taken out you are effectively nude like Israel has shown with Iran. C is currently looking at an economic debacle considering the tariff play of U. Things are not that great for C which may resort to some irrational move which could be their unravelling as a nation.

[williams]

After Op Sindoor, India has established the quadrilateral tussle between R, C, I and U. Eurotards are really under NATO of U. Of the quadrilateral, U and R are the strongest in terms of military prowess. R now has more experience in actual wars and some say that U is not ready for protracted wars as shown in Ukraine which is mostly defensive posture for U. Russia realized after Op Sindoor I's capability and immediately called for R I C unity against U. The U is worried about such an alliance. R got C backing for Ukraine, but C is not supplying any equipment to R. R deftly poached North Korea (NK) away from C in its Ukraine fight. NK ditched China Beidou and adopted Russian GLONASS system. The US hope of using I against C like a pawn is now on shaky grounds. There is a deep worry within U that I is leapfrogging in the military domain and could with R become invincible. The brahmos has put a fear factor and Akash Teer of India is more effective than Israel's Iron dome. Indian Navy demonstrated who is the boss in Indian Ocean. C has scaled back its belligerence on I and is more circumspect whether it can hold on to Tibet anymore. Phillippines with Brahmos is a huge headache for C. If Vietnam (which has thrashed C once) has brahmos then C will double sweat.

Many people are fooled by C and its military strength. It turns out C is a hollywood facade pretending to be a great power when clearly numbers don't imply military strength. Much of C equipment is a copy of other nations equipment, firstly starting with the Soviet Union and then espionage of U equipment. All C copies are one big rubbish heap that don't work in actual combat situation. Much of their gee whiz eqipment has not been battle tested and also the PLA is ill prepared in using them. The PLA itself has been devasted in top leadership by CCP and is in no mood to fight. In Op Sindoor and Iran bombing, C equipment has been conclusively proven to be bad copies and don't work one bit. In military might, poor equipment means that it would become a turkey shoot in actual warfare and C knows that numbers will become glorified rubbish heaps in war. Once the AD is taken out you are effectively nude like Israel has shown with Iran. C is currently looking at an economic debacle considering the tariff play of U. Things are not that great for C which may resort to some irrational move which could be their unravelling as a nation.

Credit should be given to C that they fooled the world this long. We need to learn and understand their tools of geopolitical propaganda and the resilience in sucking up the worlds manufacturing wealth. They have been manipulating holes in various democratic regimes (including India) around the world and have succeeded in deterring the world from taking provocative action against them. For example in 2020 when they escalated in Galwan, we should have taken a more provocative action, but we did not. Same goes with our withdrawal from Kailash range as the starting point of disengagement. Hopefully our strategic brass makes the necessary course correction moving forward