Understanding the US - Again

[Tanaji]

Trump is a person with a massive fragile ego. The very suggestion that he is being taken advantage of causes him to lash out. And this is exactly the emotion a lot of his advisers and foreign dignitaries use: the Cheeni and Paki will definitely point out how the Indians are not paying obeisance to him by not signing a trade deal…

I wonder how long these “signed” deals will last, how long until he will go back on the deal he himself signed…

[A_Gupta]

The Indian Express points out:
https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... -10156634/

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently warned India, along with China, Brazil and others with 100 per cent secondary sanctions if they continue doing business with Russia, including buying Russian oil. Simultaneously, US Senator Lindsey Graham is pushing for the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bipartisan legislative proposal. The bill, backed by Trump and 170 other lawmakers, threatens an unprecedented 500 per cent tariff on all goods exported to the US by countries that buy Russian oil, gas, petrochemicals or uranium. This is part of an overall strategy to choke the Kremlin’s war bank and economic lifelines. Trump has warned that if Russia does not stop its military offensive within 50 days, nations trading with Russia will receive trade penalties.
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India will have to assess the probability of Trump keeping his word on the secondary tariffs. The oil spot markets called his bluff, as the price for Brent crude barely moved from $69 per barrel. If the secondary sanctions stick and Russian oil (which accounts for 10 per cent of the total global oil supply) is shut out of the global markets, the price could shoot up to $120 per barrel. This would derail Trump’s domestic low-energy prices agenda. Moreover, if secondary tariffs on Chinese (mainly) and Indian goods stick, it would result in a significant increase in prices of imported goods and cause runaway inflation in the US. Will the acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) be validated again?

[drnayar]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 998698.cms


Donald Trump announced India will face a 25% tariff starting August 1st, along
with penalties for energy and arms purchases from Russia. Trump cited high
Indian tariffs and trade barriers, as well as continued reliance on Russian
resources, as justification. The reciprocal tariffs for other countries will be
effective August 1, 2025, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

[Jay]

Dems are welcome to consider this sort of background "economically underprivileged". In fact, I hope they do-- nothing will cement their future electoral failures more conclusively than their own delusions about what 'working class' actually means in America.

ok...what does working class in america mean?

[S_Madhukar]

I don't think India is averse to it at all. It is the very essence of Kautilya's "daam".

But it has to be used wisely with maximum return on investment. With Trump's Cheeni-maal model the return is poor, and payers get roped into a subscription racket.

Cheeni model look at NoKo, Bakis and our neighbours… all money down the drain… the next Pres will be a Demo clone of Drumpf and will ask for a similar subscription

[Vayutuvan]

ok...what does working class in america mean?

NRI ITvity and professor/scienstist/researcher class are most definitely not "Working Class".

[Vayutuvan]

Let me narrow it a little bit. None of us on BRF are of working class. None of us would be able to define nor understand who a "working class" american is.

If you press me to quantify (following numbers picked out of my hat, euphemistically speaking )

anybody who is able to service a 15 year 250K+ mortgage, maintain two vehicles - late model high end CR-V, RAV4, Tesla, Lexus, Merc, Volvo, Beamer, Audi, VW, or more expensive, drop their kids off to school even their district is serviced by school buses, put their kids in afterschool programs, piano/violin/tennis classes, eat out every weekend in sit-down restaurants, sip single malts/wines/cheese/checuetery, avoid travel by Greyhound, talk about stock market/gold at desi parties, spend $1000 on a ticket to NATA, ATA, TATA like shindies ... are not "working class".

[Jay]

Let me narrow it a little bit. None of us on BRF are of working class.

Yup...

[A_Gupta]

Why Trump's tough stance on Russia could derail the biggest win in his trade war

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-t ... eal-2025-7

The US and China first reached a framework trade agreement in May, after both sides said they would significantly lower the tariff rate on goods from the other country for a 90-day period while talks continue.

That 90-day period is set to end on August 12, a date that follows Trump's August 7 deadline for slapping more sanctions or tariffs on Russia unless it agrees to a ceasefire.

"Hence from August 7, Trump could hit the world with a new and different tariff shock," Gertken wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "Turkey, India, Brazil, and China would
suffer the largest shock," he added, pointing to each country's extensive trade with Russia.
[

[Rudradev]

ok...what does working class in america mean?

If you're interested in a serious answer, this article is a good place to start. https://archive.ph/SGIOI

It is a fairly comprehensive (but quite accessible) outline of the modern American class structure. Using its framework, the "working class" would be that section of the bottom 90% who have jobs, but most likely lack a college degree, and who almost certainly will never acquire enough net worth for their families to make it into the upper 10% —however much they try. The reasons for this are explained in the article.

What @Vayutuvan ji describes are the "9.9%"... the class between the bottom 90% and the super rich 0.1%. Most Indian Americans belong to this 9.9%. Understanding the role this 9.9% plays in reinforcing the American class structure explains a lot of things, including why Indian Americans are broadly resented and increasingly hated.

[Jay]

ok...what does working class in america mean?

If you're interested in a serious answer, this article is a good place to start. https://archive.ph/SGIOI

It is a fairly comprehensive (but quite accessible) outline of the modern American class structure. Using its framework, the "working class" would be that section of the bottom 90% who have jobs, but most likely lack a college degree, and who almost certainly will never acquire enough net worth for their families to make it into the upper 10% —however much they try. The reasons for this are explained in the article.

What @Vayutuvan ji describes are the "9.9%"... the class between the bottom 90% and the super rich 0.1%. Most Indian Americans belong to this 9.9%. Understanding the role this 9.9% plays in reinforcing the American class structure explains a lot of things, including why Indian Americans are broadly resented and increasingly hated.

Rudradev ji, thanks for the explanation, but I do have a good idea what working class mean in the US context and I 100% never even broached the subject of that term in relation to Indian Americans. You and I were having a back and forth on does AOC come from 'working class' or from 'previleged class'. My assertion is that she's closer to the former rather than the latter. You are free to form your opinion based on the facts and your biases, and I'll agree to disagree with you on your categorization that she comes from a privileged background.

[A_Gupta]

Deep research by Google Gemini says that while her father was alive, AOC's family was upper middle class rather than on the edge of the working class.

I hope this link works:
https://gemini.google.com/app/734acc7385b305ca

or this:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dJp ... sp=sharing

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/howd ... 250730.htm
'Howdy Modi meant nothing': Oppn mocks PM after Trump's 25% tariff
Senjo M R, July 30, 2025
Opposition parties slammed the government on Wednesday after Donald Trump imposed a 25-per percent tariff and penalties on Indian imports, and said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendship with the US president meant little.
Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said Modi should take inspiration from former prime minister Indira Gandhi and stand up to the president of the United States.
"President Trump has slapped a tariff of 25 percent plus penalty on imports from India. All that 'taarif' between him and 'Howdy Modi' has meant little," Ramesh said in a post on X.
.......
Gautam
When Canada and the UK are not exempt from tariff, no one is.

[Rudradev]

If you're interested in a serious answer, this article is a good place to start. https://archive.ph/SGIOI

Rudradev ji, thanks for the explanation, but I do have a good idea what working class mean in the US context and I 100% never even broached the subject of that term in relation to Indian Americans. You and I were having a back and forth on does AOC come from 'working class' or from 'previleged class'. My assertion is that she's closer to the former rather than the latter. You are free to form your opinion based on the facts and your biases, and I'll agree to disagree with you on your categorization that she comes from a privileged background.

Sir jee, I'm afraid it isn't a matter of opinion or biases. If one subscribes to the class breakdown given by the writer of that article, Matthew Stewart (who is the author of several books on US economic history and very much a liberal scholar himself)-- then the definitions are clear.

AOC has a college degree. Her father had a college degree (practicing as an architect requires one). Her father owned a house in a neighborhood that the bottom 90% of the country would call expensive and likely consider beyond reach (no matter our subjective opinion as Indian Americans).

By any objective measure, theirs is a family with the capacity to accumulate and pass on intergenerational wealth for at least two generations. It is demonstrably not part of the bottom 90%, but firmly within the 9.9% "new aristocracy"-- meaning, they are privileged. Not working class.

[bala]

All kinds of numbers are being touted by US El Presidente DJT, don't know if they are truly correct/accurate. One thing DJT mentioned is that medical records will become digital and portable. Patients can also access their own records digitally. Many in the US know how archaic medical records are and cannot switch medical doctors by transfer of previous patient history.

Making Health Technology Great: DJT Celebrates Q2 GDP, Inflation and new Medical Tech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwUnFiKkPJ0

[A_Gupta]

Unfortunately the character of POTUS is an issue for India’s relations with the US.

Take congressional stock trading. Republican influencers have long shaken their fists (and not without reason) at lawmakers’ penchant for remarkably canny stock trades. So when Josh Hawley drew up a bill banning the practice, he surely thought he was hitting on both a policy and PR win. He even named it the PELOSI Act as a red-meat coup de grâce!

What he certainly didn’t expect was the Truth Social response he got from Donald Trump. Apparently outraged that Hawley’s bill would also ban future presidents from trading stocks beginning in 2029, the president decried Hawley as a “second-tier senator” who was “playing right into the dirty hands of the Democrats.”

“I don’t think real Republicans want to see their President, who has had unprecedented success, TARGETED,” Trump wrote.

[bala]

BTW I am hearing that DJT is pausing tariffs on Mexico for 90 days. Maybe all the cheap china maal needs to be brought into the US since the deep state is involved and their profits could be at stake.

[A_Gupta]

CNN:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/31/busi ... court-case

For months President Donald Trump has been slapping higher tariffs on practically every country’s exports to the United States, citing emergency economic powers. Now, just as he’s about to enact a new round of tariffs, a federal appeals court could render them void.

Oral arguments began Thursday for an appeal in a case alleging Trump overstepped his legal authority to impose many of his sweeping tariffs. Five small business owners and 12 Democratic-led states are arguing that Trump can’t use a law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to enact those import duties.

The US Court of International Trade sided with those states and businesses in May but the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which is taking on the case, allowed Trump’s tariffs in question to remain in place while the case is being challenged.


It could take them weeks, or even months, to reach a decision. And the appeal could eventually make it to the Supreme Court as well.

But the federal appeals court’s decision could still significantly reshape Trump’s trade strategy – even as it won’t stop Trump from imposing higher tariffs altogether.

Judges dispute Trump’s tariff rationale
Already it appears the president’s case faces an uphill battle.

Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate sought to convince the appeals court that Trump is within his legal authority. But his arguments were met with skepticism from 10 of the 11 judges who spoke on Thursday.

[Jay]

meaning, they are privileged. Not working class.

Disagree, but moving on.

[A_Gupta]

So which is it? -- in the space of hours Trump said both that "we do very little business with India" and that "we have a massive trade deficit with India" -- both cannot be true.

[Vayutuvan]

If one interprets "very little business" as "we export very little to India", then it makes sense.

[Ambar]

Sensex is still hovering near ATH after the one day drop, and although INR did hit a new all-time low, it is just a 2% drop from where it was before Trump's announcement. The stock market is calling the bluff as did the currencies market. When everything is done and dusted he'll probably settle at a flat 15% tariff, prices and demand will adjust accordingly. The only unknown is the possible US/EU sanctions on Russian oil, it is not like we don't have other sources to buy oil but we may have to pay a higher price. With the amount of tax the govt collects on fuel, i hope there is enough cushion to not pass it on to the customers.

[Manish_P]

So which is it? -- in the space of hours Trump said both that "we do very little business with India" and that "we have a massive trade deficit with India" -- both cannot be true.

Can't both be true?

If by business, he means 'exports'

[Vayutuvan]

Linear-scale chart showing net personal wealth, categorized by percentile ranges Data source, through 2021, is the World Inequity Database: https://wid.world/country/usa/

[A_Gupta]

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/t ... linewidget

After 'dead economies' insult, Trump and Putin aide's clash turns nuclear

Medvedev, who currently serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, invoked the "Dead Hand"—a Cold War-era system designed by Moscow that would automatically launch a retaliatory nuclear strike if the Soviet Union—present-day Russia—were attacked, even if its leadership were incapacitated.

"As for the talk about the 'dead economies' of India and Russia, and 'entering dangerous territory' - maybe he should recall his favourite movies about 'the walking dead,' and also remember how dangerous the so-called 'Dead Hand,' which doesn't even exist, could be," Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

The Kremlin has said it is monitoring the situation closely as the US has stationed nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time since 2008.

[A_Gupta]

So which is it? -- in the space of hours Trump said both that "we do very little business with India" and that "we have a massive trade deficit with India" -- both cannot be true.

Can't both be true?

If by business, he means 'exports'

Remember the context, Pakistan is there as the comparison point in the series of tweets/Truth Socials that Trump emitted.

[Rudradev]

Deep research by Google Gemini says that while her father was alive, AOC's family was upper middle class rather than on the edge of the working class.

I hope this link works:
https://gemini.google.com/app/734acc7385b305ca

or this:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dJp ... sp=sharing

Google docs export worked. Thank you for the data.

[A_Gupta]

Further, read this and tell me Trump is truthful.

Code: Select all

United States Exports 2024
By Country      Value
Canada          $348.41B
Mexico          $334.04B
China           $143.55B
Netherlands     $89.64B
United Kingdom  $79.89B
Japan           $79.72B
Germany         $75.38B
South Korea     $65.54B
Brazil          $49.67B
Singapore       $46.02B
France          $44.39B
India           $41.75B
Australia       $34.58B
Belgium         $34.18B
Italy           $32.40B
Hong Kong       $27.87B
Malaysia        $27.70B
UAE             $26.97B
Switzerland     $24.96B
Spain           $23.91B
Colombia        $19.04B
Chile           $18.17B
Thailand        $17.72B
Ireland         $16.53B
Turkey          $15.29B
Israel          $14.79B
Saudi Arabia    $13.18B
Vietnam         $13.10B
Dominican R     $13.08B
Poland          $11.94B
Peru            $11.22B
Panama          $10.70B
Indonesia       $10.20B
Guatemala       $9.71B
Costa Rica      $9.68B
Philippines     $9.30B
Argentina       $9.17B
Sweden          $8.19B
Ecuador         $7.53B
Honduras        $7.06B
Egypt           $6.09B
South Africa    $5.82B
Denmark         $5.81B
Bahamas         $5.64B
Morocco         $5.27B
Norway          $4.55B
El Salvador     $4.54B
New Zealand     $4.49B
Austria         $4.43B
Czech Republic  $4.28B
Venezuela       $4.23B
Nigeria         $4.17B
Qatar           $3.80B
Hungary         $3.26B
Paraguay        $3.16B
Portugal        $3.05B
Nicaragua       $2.94B
Trinidad &t     $2.94B
Jamaica         $2.64B
Greece          $2.61B
Finland         $2.56B
Kuwait          $2.41B
Bangladesh      $2.21B
Pakistan        $2.14B

[A_Gupta]

Lastly, the US does not import stuff just for fun. If India is the 12th largest export destination of the US, and yet the US has a significant trade deficit with India, the imports from India must be helping keep costs down in the US.

----
Forget about what Trump said, too.
Google Gemini AI found for me that the ratio of India's imports from the US to India's nominal GDP in current USD is 1%.
Which means 6% growth in India per year would result in about 2.4B USD of additional imports per year, if the ten year trend continues.
A trade deal would accelerate this.

I think that a claim that even without a trade deal, India could be in the top 10 US export destinations in 2026 is supported by the data.
I further think that a claim that with a trade deal, India could easily be in the top 8 US export destinations in 2026 is supportable.
(e.g., India could easily switch several billion dollars of energy imports to source from the US.)
And so on.

Google Gemini data (it claimed to be careful enough to get data for the calendar year rather than the financial year).

Code: Select all

Year	India Nominal GDP (USD Billions)	India Goods Imports from US (USD Billions)	Ratio (Imports/GDP) %
2015	2104			21.45	1.02%
2016	2295			21.65	0.94%
2017	2651			25.65	0.97%
2018	2703			33.18	1.23%
2019	2836			34.22	1.21%
2020	2675			27.08	1.01%
2021	3167			39.82	1.26%
2022	3353			46.82	1.40%
2023	3568			40.32	1.13%
2024	3912.69			41.8	1.07%

[Rudradev]

There is a streak of desperate urgency in him, a frantic lashing out for things that he imagines will solidify a presidential "legacy" of some kind.

Despite a background level of public narcissism and regular Twitter bloviations, this element of flailing desperation did not exist in his 1st term. It is something new, and suggests a knowledge of having gravely limited time.

[bala]

Here are some hilarious YT clippets:

DJT's take on Kamala Harris (not running for GovernorShip of Kalifornia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VMBYDGhgOw

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reveals Nancy Pelosi net worth due to insider trading:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lA1q361318

$400 M and Nancy P only eats $100 icecreams in Napa Valley, Kalifornia

[A_Gupta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cI9ocwHGh24
Suhel Seth blasts Donald Trump, Rahul Gandhi over their ‘Dead Economy’ remarks
("I treat Donald Trump and Rahul Gandhi in the same intellectual bucket")

From the Google transcript:

I think you have to understand that Donald Trump is an unhinged rogue who has no understanding either of economics or political discourse. He has become president of America which most Americans are suffering now because of his presidency.

He is essentially a bully. And a bully is almost always a coward. He's not interested in any kind of bilateral relationship. He's not interested in a
global order. Look at the amount of allies that Trump has upset today. whether it's his allies in Europe, whether it is NATO as a whole, whether
it is people whether look at Brazil, look at what he did to Canada.

So I don't care about what Trump says because if Trump believes that with imposing these penalties he will bring India to its knees, he's wrong. Unlike China, we are a huge consumptive economy. We consume more than we export. So yes, there will be some niggling trouble, but it will not be wrecking us as he imagines. And the stock market today is a reflection of that. If you saw the markets today, the markets did not even care about Trump's nonsense.

And I'm glad that our prime minister Narendra Modi is not succumbing to this level of bullying, this level of cowardice and this level of pathetic relationship building. Look at the language that Trump uses.

And now that you asked me about Rahul Gandhi, I'm amazed how can the leader of India's opposition sitting in our parliament hate India so much by
calling the Indian economy a dead economy. This man's self-loathing today has become unbearable.

[Manish_P]

Remember the context, Pakistan is there as the comparison point in the series of tweets/Truth Socials that Trump emitted.

Indian imports from US in 2024 - approx 39 billion USD
Pakistan imports from US in 2024 - approx 5 billion USD

Indian exports to US in 2024 - approx 77.5 billion USD
Pakistan exports to US in 2024 - approx 7 billion USD

[A_Gupta]

In terms of rank, India is 12th and Pakistan is 64th in US export destinations.

The numbers per the Office of the US Trade Representative are what I cited above.
India imported 41.8 billion not 39 billion.
India exported 87.4 billion not 77.5 billion.

Pakistan imported 2.1 billion not 5 billion
Pakistan exported 5.1 billion not 7 billion

India Trade Summary

U.S. total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024. U.S. goods exports to India in 2024 were $41.8 billion, up 3.4 percent ($1.4 billion) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion in 2024, up 4.5 percent ($3.7 billion) from 2023. The U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4 percent increase ($2.4 billion) over 2023.

Pakistan Trade Summary

U.S. total goods trade with Pakistan were an estimated $7.3 billion in 2024. U.S. goods exports to Pakistan in 2024 were $2.1 billion, up 4.4 percent ($90.9 million) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from Pakistan totaled $5.1 billion in 2024, up 4.9 percent ($238.7 million) from 2023. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $3 billion in 2024, a 5.2 percent increase ($147.9 million) over 2023.

From:
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/sout ... asia/india
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/sout ... a/pakistan