India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Vayutuvan]

I voted for him but I regret doing that now .

Why regret? You voted then taking into account all the information known to you. Had KD were to have ascended the throne, she would have removed all controls on immigration, defunded ICE, and would have let in large number of radical Islamists in to the country. She has an attention span that rivals the attention span of a sparrow.

[bala]

Why regret?

Yes, you pick the better of the two devils at hand. No point regretting things, tis democracy.

She has an attention span that rivals the attention span of a sparrow.

Saar, Sparrows are highly intelligent creatures, I can't say the same for KD(H). (btw KD in tamil means crook! kd yaar irukiyai, you are a crook). Obummer used to eye KD as a favorable prospect, somehow Bidenwa picked her as a safe bet because her upstairs is blank. Good fit for the job, no questions asked.

[williams]

Trade deals are just formalization of understandings between countries. Trade on the other hand is like pouring water on cements floor. It will find its crevasses and penetrate where possible and spread around if that is not possible. It is based on the good old supply and demand.Trump bahadur foolishly thinks he can control Indian foreign policy through tariffs and social media insults. India right fully acted in her interests and this drama will give her more excuse to ignore American sensitivities in future actions.

Now regarding the Pakis. They are selling themselves more and more without knowing that they have destroyed their country irreversibly. Trump is a three year phenomenon that we should simply ignore and continue to work on a multipolar world where India will be one of the poles. Trump bahadur along with his coterie of republican dull heads do not have the intellectual capacity to thwart our long term plan, so we can and should handle this situation quite easily.

[bala]

Actually the trade tariff picture for India is not all gloom and doom. The rest of the nations in the world face similar obstacles with the US tariffs. Around 40% of India's trade have exemptions, only things like gems/jewellery, textiles, trinkets and simliar low value are attracting 25% tariff. These can be managed by other means. The bigger issue is that MNCs are making a beeline into India away from China. Biggies like AWS are thinking of moving out of the US and relocating to Dubai, which effectively means India. So there is going to be massive production within India and the US cannot make these things at the same cheap rates as India. Apple, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and others have indicated that India is going to be their manufacturing hub. Actually Apple is already there. Boeing's entire logistics chain is run from India to procure parts from various nations and send them to Seattle integration where planes are in final assembly. Boeing can say screw all this and relocate into India since the parts are going to attract tariff. The MNCs have a powerful lobby and will work out some arrangement to get some more exemptions.

I wonder what will happen to consumer goods pricing in the US, there is going to some revolt in huge higher prices for most common stuff. A guy going to Home Depot (which currenly gets its maal from China, Malaysia, Thailand, Mexico and other nations) will be shocked that a $10 item now costs $20 due to DJT's tariffs.

[A_Gupta]

The mark-ups in retail are huge. As a Bangladeshi garment exporter said, he sells for $5 in wholesale what retails at $35 in the US.

Now, add 30% tariff to the Bangladeshi garment. It now costs $6.50 in wholesale.

The problem for Bangladesh is if Vietnam or India or China has less than 30% tariff. Then he loses the sale.

The problem for the American retailer is how much can they push this additional $1.50 onto the American consumer in a competitive retail market and how much do they cut their own margins.

Of course, not all goods are like this. E.g., the retail markup on an iPhone is probably a factor of 2, not a factor of 7.

But this example shows why the effect of tariffs is hard to predict.

[Vayutuvan]

The mark-ups in retail are huge. As a Bangladeshi garment exporter said, he sells for $5 in wholesale what retails at $35 in the US.

If you want to pay fair value (I mean value the labor properly) $35 should really be $70. If that happens, most Americans will convert their walk-in closets into small bedrooms and make do with hooks on the walls like we do in Bharat. We had two or three pairs of clothes and every year we get one or two pairs - Deepavali and Dasara - usually.

When my dad came here, he looked at my closet and was aghast. But then SHQ's aquaintence who grew up in Delhi where dad was secy level babu, walked into my SHQ's closet and said "ask your hubby to fill this closet. Half of it is empty".

[Vayutuvan]

(btw KD in tamil means crook! kd yaar irukiyai, you are a crook).

I know. KD stands for Known Delinquent or Known Dacoit.

[Vayutuvan]

Obummer used to eye KD as a favorable prospect, ...

Ombaba had the hots for her. Once he commented that KD is the best looking AG ever or something like that. He got a lot of flak for being secist and he even apologized. Prolly Michelle O squeezed his proverbial - hard.

[KL Dubey]

The mark-ups in retail are huge. As a Bangladeshi garment exporter said, he sells for $5 in wholesale what retails at $35 in the US.

Clearly, the complaint that "USA is being exploited by other countries" can only come from a very feeble mind.

[bala]

If you want to pay fair value (I mean value the labor properly) $35 should really be $70.

Labor will not get paid even at $70. Take the $5 textile example. Probably BD gets .25c for stitching one shirt/blouse. The other cost is material cloth, buttons and of course rent/electricity/machines etc. The delivered cost to end consumer is $10 say to Macys. Macys then puts the shirt/blouse for $30-40 msrp/sticker price, between $10 and say on sale for $25 they still make profit. So clearly the US is making oodles of money out of $5 shirt/blouse. BD is only earning 0.25c - 0.50c. Arbitrage is the cheap labor cost elsewhere. Labor cost in US will be probably around $5 for the same shirt. Putting tariff means Macys gets the shirt at $12.5 to $13. Still business as usual, msrp will increase to $35-45 and the US consumer gets shafted. Ah well, so be it.

[Zynda]

One of the good things that will hopefully come out of DJT tantrum is further erosion of Indian trust on US Govt., especially in important areas like defense. Hopefully, this will lead to cancellation of imports of sub-par & unnecessary products like Javelin & Strykers. Good news for our own indigenous products & WhAP! Already, India has signaled that it won't be buying F-35...some really useful items like P-8I & C-17s might be casualty due to the above policies.

[Rudradev]

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/a ... ut-3639379

NYT article from 21 hours ago.

Trump has completely folded in his "trade war" against China. By withholding rare earth mineral exports in retaliation against Trump's 145% tariffs and restrictions on AI-chip exports, China made the US tech, automobile & defense titans squeal. They in turn have successfully pressured Trump to (1) resume chip exports to PRC and (2) drop tariffs to 30% and (3) fire China Hawks from his administration, replacing them with pro-trade (and pro-China) technocrats.

Besides representing a humiliating defeat for America First, it signals an ominous policy shift in US-China relations from the Indian perspective.

Trump has abjectly begged the Chinese for a state visit to Beijing to sign off on new trade deals in person with Xi Jinping later this year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is already lining up top-shelf American CEOs to join his delegation on Air Force One.

I predict that Trump is going to present this as a historic, Nixon Redux rapprochement of the US with China— basically giving PRC whatever they want on a platter while claiming statesmanship points for himself. Part of what the Chinese will demand (and I'm sure Trump will give) is a joint partnership aimed at containing and reversing India's rise.

Taken together with Trump's new fondness for Asim Munir, a new Nixon-Kissinger moment for the US & China will herald the worst phase in US-India relations since 1971.

WSJ Editorial Board confirms my prediction above.

Trump wants to do Nixon Part 2 & cement a US/China G2 relationship.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trum ... t-3529bac6

A Nixonian Trump Offer to China?
The President wants to break up the Moscow-Beijing axis.

[Rudradev]

https://youtu.be/evJ5l0p01lQ?si=DdPeGmE9gI7MBep2

Trump Betrays India: Sells Out for Pakistani Oil & Crypto | The Chanakya Dialogues Major Gaurav Arya

[A_Gupta]

MEA: " India and the United States share a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, anchored in shared interests, democratic values, and robust people-to-people ties. This partnership has weathered several transitions and challenges. We remain focused on the substantive agenda that the two countries have committed to, and are confident that the relationship will continue to move forward."

from: Transcript of the August 1st briefing.
https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings. ... st_01_2025

Also: "....our ties with any country or all the ties that we have with various countries, they have, they stand on their own merit and they should not be seen from the prism of a third country."

[A_Gupta]

Vijay Sardana is a commentator who sees the silver lining in everything. He points out that US trade is a small fraction of overall world trade - Indian businesses should not be lazy and should seek out other markets.

That led to a minor Aha moment with @Rudradev's point about Indian IT not developing its own products -- perhaps it can do so if it focuses, say, on the African market. Competing/displacing Microsoft in the American market is way too difficult; the Indian market may not yet be big enough on its own to justify the required investments.

[sanjayc]

Lazy Indian companies rely on American market, as that is already highly developed with a ready demand. But putting all your eggs in one basket is risky, as your access can be blocked anytime. Export diversification is critical, not only in terms of basket of goods and services that we export, but also countries to whom we export. Better to focus on fulfilling the needs of underdeveloped markets and underserved people, as Western companies rarely cater to them. See the success of Bajaj and TVS motorcycles in African market -- they totally wiped off Chinese bikes from the continent

[williams]

Lazy Indian companies rely on American market, as that is already highly developed with a ready demand. But putting all your eggs in one basket is risky, as your access can be blocked anytime. Export diversification is critical, not only in terms of basket of goods and services that we export, but also countries to whom we export. Better to focus on fulfilling the needs of underdeveloped markets and underserved people, as Western companies rarely cater to them. See the success of Bajaj and TVS motorcycles in African market -- they totally wiped off Chinese bikes from the continent

There is nothing called lazy company Everything is based on supply, demand and RoI. Tariffs will make companies to re-channel their market and it will only create a temporary disruption and will normalize over time. Trump bahadur thinks he can make structural changes to US economy by increasing tariffs and bullying countries to reduce trade barriers. American problem is high labor cost, inflated dollar, heavy regulation. It is compounded with reliance on artificial demand generated by a debt-ridden society. These cannot change unless there is real internal policy change.

[RCase]

(btw KD in tamil means crook! kd yaar irukiyai, you are a crook).

I know. KD stands for Known Delinquent or Known Dacoit.

KD was from Britshit era of cops keeping a list of the known criminal elements : “Known Depredator”.

[Vayutuvan]

KD was from Britshit era of cops keeping a list of the known criminal elements : “Known Depredator”.

Aah. I did not know that is the full form. "Round up the usual suspects" - Casablanca

[Haresh]

India to still buy oil from Russia despite Trump threats, say officials

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... ff-threats