India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[A_Gupta]

Claim 3: “India is a dead economy”
Trump’s claim: The US barely does business with India.

The truth: India’s been the US’s top trading partner four years running.

I think Canada, China, Mexico are ahead.

[hanumadu]

Anand Ranganathan: negotiate with Russia to discount oil sales to the same levels as they offered in 2022-23 (about 24%). India has proved its loyal friendship by standing up for them under pressure.

This level of discount will by itself more than make up for any projected losses from the expected US tariffs.

The rebate offered depended on the price of crude in the market. If the price was already low, the rebate was low. Basically Russia was not selling below a certain price point. Right now the price at below USD 70 $ is low. We exported USD 80 B last year. 50% comes to 40 B. We can ask Russia to lower the price enough to subsidize our exports to USA to the tune of 20 Billion which is what the additional tariffs cost. But I doubt Trump will stop at 50%.

India imports 5 B woth of pearls, gems ans precious stones and exports 10 B of the same. I think they are imported, processed and re-exported back to US. American businesses will be affected by these tariffs.

India exports more than 15 B worth of Engineering goods, 6 B electronic goods which are exempt from Tariffs, greather than 8 B dollars worth drugs and 6 B worth of petroleum products.

Indian pretroleum products exports to USA are exempt from Tariff, even if they are from Russian oil.
So are pharmaceuticals and electronic goods.

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Econo ... g_rewarded

Even this has an exclusion list that includes finished pharmaceutical products (tablets, injectables and syrups), active pharmaceutical ingredients, electronics and ICT goods (semiconductors, smartphones, SSDs and computers), and petroleum products (crude oil, LNG, refined fuels, electricity and coal).

I am guessing the margins on pharma products are outrageous and 50 or even 100 % tariff won't make a difference if it is imposed.

USA accounts for 16% of our engineering goods exports.

[chetak]

amrika has been ravaged by the deep state since the cigar smoking clinton administration, followed by obummer, and then by the shadowy gang that ran the biden presidency. The amriki people fought back and trump somehow surfaced, but had his second term stolen from him by the deep state using billionaires, while leveraging their tech and media muscle

Everything happening is the opposite of this narrative. It's just the pedo-prez trump and all his supporters/voters who are enabling this behavior and nothing more. The more people try to white-wash it, the more ridiculous this "deep state" conspiracy theory looks.

Jay saar,

what is someone's truth is another's conspiracy

deep state is a lived truth in India and its slanted outpourings are still credible to most Indians, even the so called educated ones

old books are still available, sometimes in private hands or even in good public libraries in larger cities and university towns that give the unvarnished truth, honestly written by unbiased observers

If this deep state has had such a profound effect on the whitewashed and falsified narratives of Indian history (to the extent that it is still being "taught" in schools today), and culture by commie scum in academia, media, and intelligentsia why would anyone be surprised to see it elsewhere in the world.

the pakis have white washed their entire "history" allegedly going back to more than 5000 years ago, and the beedis are doing it now, even as we speak.

The pakis had earlier claimed that their testimonials were arabic in origin, but have since have modified the claim as one testimonial is turkic, and the other persian, especially after the touchy arabs threatened to remove both of them without the benefit of local anaesthesia

after all, the deep state is commie owned, commie run and commie funded with the sole agenda of displacing every other narrative in existence, save their own

"to each his own" like one fancies that the imaginary "aryans" would say.

BTW, wasn't stalin an affectionate grandfatherly figure, pol pot, a favorite family friend, and mousey tung, a genial and generous uncle

stalin was indeed very affectionate and his affections were reserved for the tokarev 9mm semi automatic service pistol made for the Soviet Armed Forces. It was a "hit" with his friends when he lovingly greeted them with it

[gakakkad]

I think we ll be eating Tacos here in 2 weeks . I'll explain what I know next week .

[Vayutuvan]

Everything happening is the opposite of this narrative. It's just the pedo-prez trump and all his supporters/voters who are enabling this behavior and nothing more.

Very simplistic, I muss say.

[Jay]

Jay saar,

what is someone's truth is another's conspiracy

deep state is a lived truth in India and its slanted outpourings are still credible to most Indians, even the so called educated ones

old books are still available, sometimes in private hands or even in good public libraries in larger cities and university towns that give the unvarnished truth, honestly written by unbiased observers

If this deep state has had such a profound effect on the whitewashed and falsified narratives of Indian history (to the extent that it is still being "taught" in schools today), and culture by commie scum in academia, media, and intelligentsia why would anyone be surprised to see it elsewhere in the world.

the pakis have white washed their entire "history" allegedly going back to more than 5000 years ago, and the beedis are doing it now, even as we speak.

The pakis had earlier claimed that their testimonials were arabic in origin, but have since have modified the claim as one testimonial is turkic, and the other persian, especially after the touchy arabs threatened to remove both of them without the benefit of local anaesthesia

after all, the deep state is commie owned, commie run and commie funded with the sole agenda of displacing every other narrative in existence, save their own

"to each his own" like one fancies that the imaginary "aryans" would say.

BTW, wasn't stalin an affectionate grandfatherly figure, pol pot, a favorite family friend, and mousey tung, a genial and generous uncle

stalin was indeed very affectionate and his affections were reserved for the tokarev 9mm semi automatic service pistol made for the Soviet Armed Forces. It was a "hit" with his friends when he lovingly greeted them with it

None of this makes any sense nor is it anyway relevant to your original assertion that "deep state stole trumps second term and is causing this chaos". What next, throw aliens and UFO's into this mix.

For some fun...https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs

[Jay]

Everything happening is the opposite of this narrative. It's just the pedo-prez trump and all his supporters/voters who are enabling this behavior and nothing more.

Very simplistic, I muss say.

I agree, but sometimes 1+1 = 2 and you do not need tangential doctorate level analysis to state the obvious.

[Ambar]

The rebate offered depended on the price of crude in the market. If the price was already low, the rebate was low. Basically Russia was not selling below a certain price point. Right now the price at below USD 70 $ is low. We exported USD 80 B last year. 50% comes to 40 B. We can ask Russia to lower the price enough to subsidize our exports to USA to the tune of 20 Billion which is what the additional tariffs cost. But I doubt Trump will stop at 50%.

India imports 5 B woth of pearls
USA accounts for 16% of our engineering goods exports.

I think the bigger risk is with sanctions. If Russia does not agree to a peace deal (apparently there will be a Trump-Putin meeting soon), then Rubio has said sanctions are coming next. But we are not the only ones who trade with Russia, UAE has openly said it will strengthen ties with Russia and increase bi-lateral trade, and China isn't blinking despite their exports to the US dwarfing ours. Trump is playing a game of brinksmanship, so far neither the sensex nor the INR has moved much because of tariffs, but sanctions maybe a whole different story. We really need to move away from SWIFT for non-dollar trade and suspend sharing our banking information with them when the US does not share its data with us.

[drnayar]

The rebate offered depended on the price of crude in the market. If the price was already low, the rebate was low. Basically Russia was not selling below a certain price point. Right now the price at below USD 70 $ is low. We exported USD 80 B last year. 50% comes to 40 B. We can ask Russia to lower the price enough to subsidize our exports to USA to the tune of 20 Billion which is what the additional tariffs cost. But I doubt Trump will stop at 50%.

India imports 5 B woth of pearls
USA accounts for 16% of our engineering goods exports.

I think the bigger risk is with sanctions. If Russia does not agree to a peace deal (apparently there will be a Trump-Putin meeting soon), then Rubio has said sanctions are coming next. But we are not the only ones who trade with Russia, UAE has openly said it will strengthen ties with Russia and increase bi-lateral trade, and China isn't blinking despite their exports to the US dwarfing ours. Trump is playing a game of brinksmanship, so far neither the sensex nor the INR has moved much because of tariffs, but sanctions maybe a whole different story. We really need to move away from SWIFT for non-dollar trade and suspend sharing our banking information with them when the US does not share its data with us.

Sanctions against BRICS ?.. they wont sanction China ..its like shooting themselves !! .. Russia is already sanctioned to the hilt. That leaves India and Brazil ..sanction them and America seals the fate of the dollar as well., half of humanity can move away from the Dollar if the BRICS get their act together ., someone said the dying throes of an empire reeks of decay of its moral compass

[chetak]

Jay saar,

what is someone's truth is another's conspiracy

deep state is a lived truth in India and its slanted outpourings are still credible to most Indians, even the so called educated ones

old books are still available, sometimes in private hands or even in good public libraries in larger cities and university towns that give the unvarnished truth, honestly written by unbiased observers

If this deep state has had such a profound effect on the whitewashed and falsified narratives of Indian history (to the extent that it is still being "taught" in schools today), and culture by commie scum in academia, media, and intelligentsia why would anyone be surprised to see it elsewhere in the world.

the pakis have white washed their entire "history" allegedly going back to more than 5000 years ago, and the beedis are doing it now, even as we speak.

The pakis had earlier claimed that their testimonials were arabic in origin, but have since have modified the claim as one testimonial is turkic, and the other persian, especially after the touchy arabs threatened to remove both of them without the benefit of local anaesthesia

after all, the deep state is commie owned, commie run and commie funded with the sole agenda of displacing every other narrative in existence, save their own

"to each his own" like one fancies that the imaginary "aryans" would say.

BTW, wasn't stalin an affectionate grandfatherly figure, pol pot, a favorite family friend, and mousey tung, a genial and generous uncle

stalin was indeed very affectionate and his affections were reserved for the tokarev 9mm semi automatic service pistol made for the Soviet Armed Forces. It was a "hit" with his friends when he lovingly greeted them with it

None of this makes any sense nor is it anyway relevant to your original assertion that "deep state stole trumps second term and is causing this chaos". What next, throw aliens and UFO's into this mix.

For some fun...https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs

Jay ji,

One wouldn't worry too much about it.

It is a matter of perspective, and narratives are meant to try and change that

[bala]

Orange man had said China and India will be paying the tariff.

https://x.com/muglikar_/status/1953288437634658651

[Raja]

Clearly, Trump's ego has been hurt when India did not entertain his "I saved India-Pakistan from nuking each other" rhetoric. Pakistan sang his praises and they have been accordingly rewarded. He clearly wants to put Modi ji in his place and show who is the boss.

India might just pay with years of economic prosperity because of this. But probably worth it then bending over at this point.

[A_Gupta]

after all, the deep state is commie owned, commie run and commie funded with the sole agenda of displacing every other narrative in existence, save their own

Thanks!

[bala]

Now is the time for India to take stock of the clear shenanigans of the US and place zero trust in such relationships. People wanting to escape to the US for studies or better pastures have to be more thoughtful of the choice. India has to rejig itself in such crisis. Time to invest in R&D, invest in own industries, invest in sprucing up cities/towns to international standards of cleanliness and efficiency. Light a fire under babus to out-think the Deep State and manage the economy by clever and doable plans. Time for the Govt to roll out reforms in every area including babucracy, judiciary, police, farm sector, etc. Every thing has to be looked at afresh in new lens to make sure India is no more vulnerable to blackmail by others. IT has to work on indigenous things hosted in India, data security must be given serious consideration. Defence sector has to aim for 80+% indigenous content. Yes, time to roll up sleeves and get to work forthwith.

[Vayutuvan]

https://www.wionews.com/world/-can-t-be ... 4574568204

Amid the chaos around the US tariff imposed on India, China has expressed its support for its neighbouring country saying that India's sovereignty is non-negotiable and its foreign policy choices cannot be manipulated by other countries.

So when are they going to return aksai chin to India? Will cede parts of Karakoram Highway that are in the Indian territory? Will they gibe freedom to Tibet and Dalai Lama return to his homeland?

[Vayutuvan]

... pearls, gems ans precious stones and exports 10 B of the same. I think they are imported, processed and re-exported back to US. American businesses will be affected by these tariffs.

Major buyers of these goods are Indian-American ITVity types. If they redirect this money to invest in stocks in India rather than invest in apartments that are kept locked up and/or farm houses (Indian citizens ofc), this would be a good thing.

[Vayutuvan]

I am guessing the margins on pharma products are outrageous and 50 or even 100 % tariff won't make a difference if it is imposed.

Medicare supplemental plans and regular insurance companies do cover almost all drugs. Very few drugs are very expensive. My guess is that India exports generic pharma products to the US. Insurance and medicare premiums will go up a tad. That is it.

[bala]

The drugs that India makes are those out of patent period ie., 20yrs. These generics are very low in terms of cost when made in India. The out of patent drugs are aplenty and have patients still on such drugs, some of them are the only such drugs for maintaining the patient health. Just for comparison say a 100 pill bottle made in india would be $5, even with tariff of 100% would be $10. The delivery pharmacy in the US supplies to end customer for $30 - 50 end price. Indian pharmacy will not see a pinch on their trade even with tariffs.

European manufacturers like Germany and Switzerland produce drugs that are way too expensive, in the $200 to $500 range. They will be affected with tariffs and the end consumer of US will complain about prices.

[drnayar]

I am guessing the margins on pharma products are outrageous and 50 or even 100 % tariff won't make a difference if it is imposed.

Medicare supplemental plans and regular insurance companies do cover almost all drugs. Very few drugs are very expensive. My guess is that India exports generic pharma products to the US. Insurance and medicare premiums will go up a tad. That is it.

Just a tad ? . The price differential between generic and branded ones like say Pfizer ( made in land of free) is anywhere between 10x to 100x !

[A_Gupta]

Right now, per Shekar Gupta on The Print, Pharma is exempted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FdmIcQOlc0&t=441s

because there is
8:38
pharma there is also medical equipment
8:41
there is simple things like surgical
8:43
surgical consumables gauges bandages etc
8:47
etc India makes a lot of that that is
8:49
between 10 to 12 billion dollar That's a
8:53
very big import that right now is
8:55
exempted. Pharma is exempted. Also,
8:58
Trump is saying and this is not India
9:00
specific. Trump is saying that he's
9:02
going to soon start putting tariff on
9:05
pharma taking it up to 250% over time so
9:10
that people are forced to come to
9:13
America and manufacture there. Those
9:15
things will need time. You can't go and
9:17
switch on and off and say, "Hey, come
9:19
on. I've rented this space. next month
9:21
I'm starting to make uh this antibiotic
9:23
here. Those things will take time. So
9:25
when that happens we will know but that
9:27
will then apply to everybody and the
9:30
immediate effect of that will be that
9:32
pharmaceutical prices in America will
9:34
going up. Trump has just now written to
9:37
14 or is it 17 big pharma manufacturers
9:41
in the US asking them to reduce prices
9:44
because because that's a big issue. the
9:46
pharmaceutical industry in the US really
9:49
profiters. That said, this is one area
9:52
which right now has protection.

[Rudradev]

Is there an understanding between Trump and Pakistan?

A must-watch video. It lays bare the entire network of connections between Trump's circle and Pakistani-American crypto financier Omeed Malik, who has very successfully embedded himself in the MAGA ecosystem and now influences policy at the highest level.

[drnayar]

[youtube]B7f3i5GhV0w[/youtube

Is there an understanding between Trump and Pakistan?

A must-watch video. It lays bare the entire network of connections between Trump's circle and Pakistani-American crypto financier Omeed Malik, who has very successfully embedded himself in the MAGA ecosystem and now influences policy at the highest level.

Thanks for posting this . Timely

[Bharadwaj]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 025-08-08/

Exclusive: India pauses plans to buy U.S. arms after Trump's tariffs

India had been planning to send Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to Washington in the coming weeks for an announcement on some of the purchases, but that trip has been cancelled, two of the people said.

Probably only a temporary move.

[Bharadwaj]

https://x.com/sidhant/status/1953791206388830469

Attributable to a Senior MoD Official: The Reuters story on India pausing defense purchases from the US is False and Fabricated.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Z_DauletSingh/status/1950976486128885983 ---> If there is one consistent strand that runs through US policy towards India since the 1950s it is to smash its strategic independence.

[drnayar]

https://x.com/sidhant/status/1953791206388830469

Attributable to a Senior MoD Official: The Reuters story on India pausing defense purchases from the US is False and Fabricated.

Reuters already lost its credibility with operation Sindhoor ., its agenda based narratives run by pakis

[SSridhar]

Is there an understanding between Trump and Pakistan?

A must-watch video. It lays bare the entire network of connections between Trump's circle and Pakistani-American crypto financier Omeed Malik, who has very successfully embedded himself in the MAGA ecosystem and now influences policy at the highest level.

Deja vu for the umpteenth time since the 1950s.

[gakakkad]

https://x.com/sidhant/status/1953791206388830469

Reuters already lost its credibility with operation Sindhoor ., its agenda based narratives run by pakis

we need to dig into who shivam patel is . a lot of those fake news come from him +1 pakee. if he is in India he needs a good GUBO session in IB office.

[VinodTK]

^^^^
Shivam Patel @ShivpatelDel Journalist @Reuters ,
formerly @IndianExpressand @the_hindu
Indiareuters.com/authors/shivam…Joined July 2016
731 Following
902 Followers

[Rudradev]

So Pakistan has a national cryptocurrency industry (which is apparently used to launder Trump's money, among other things).

Where is the hardware infrastructure (servers, etc) that supports this crypto industry located?

Any reason it can't be visited by the sort of ordinance that "hit, but did not target" Kirana Hills?

[Rudradev]

@CallToActivism on X

https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/195 ... 08548?s=19

MAJOR BREAKING: Michael Wolff just dropped a BOMB about what Jeffrey Epstein told him about Donald Trump.

When asked what he thinks will be revealed about Trump if the EPSTEIN FILES ever see the light of day, Wolff answered, “I think it's a monster tax scam in the middle of this, which Epstein spoke to me about.”

It seems that Jeffrey Epstein was involved in in or was even the architect of a possible monster tax scam on how to hide Donald Trump's money and helped him avoid taxes.

This might explain why Trump always fought like hell that other documents, like the Epstein files, should never see the light of day: his TAX RETURNS.

Let that sink in.
Trump’s taxes have been one of the most closely guarded secrets in modern politics. Every subpoena, every court fight, every stall tactic — now it all has a new, darker layer.

If Wolff’s account is true, Trump isn’t just hiding shady business deals. He’s hiding the fact that one of the most notorious sexual predators in history helped design the scheme to bury his billion-dollar debt.

This wasn’t just friendship.
This was conspiracy — told by Epstein himself.

And it explains why Trump would fight to the ends of the earth to make sure those returns never see the light of day.

NOW does it make sense why Dump needs a personal money laundry, located far from prying eyes and easy to control by throwing a few coins... i.e., Pakistan's "cryptocurrency industry", starring Omeed Malik, Chengpeng "CZ" Zhao, Gentry Beach, Steve Witkoff, Zachary Witkoff, and Dump Junior?

[drnayar]

trump after his first presidency planned an alternative deep state ecosystem., backed by crypto financiers, hedge funds and big oil., its tentacles growing into the heartland of America., everyone in his inner circle are linked, most not directly but indirectly through their families into this web

i suspect Venezuela to be their next juicy target

[Rudradev]

There are two levels to this conflict.

One is the slowly-unfolding, geopolitical "Thucidydes Trap" conflict which has always existed between India and the US, intensifying since 2014— a struggle of complex machinations, intricate balancing, and multi-dimensional relationship management.

The second is a no-holds-barred knife fight against a single individual— a gangster and extortionist— along with his relatively small coterie of jackals.

The gangster of the second conflict is seen as an existential threat by many of the actors and institutions who have been India's adversaries in the first conflict.

There may be ways for India to leverage this situation against the gangster.

[Rudradev]

trump after his first presidency planned an alternative deep state ecosystem., backed by crypto financiers, hedge funds and big oil., its tentacles growing into the heartland of America.

So the greatest enemy of this alternative deep state ecosystem, who feels most threatened by it, would be... the original (pre-Trump) deep state ecosystem. Correct?

[drnayar]

trump after his first presidency planned an alternative deep state ecosystem., backed by crypto financiers, hedge funds and big oil., its tentacles growing into the heartland of America.

So the greatest enemy of this alternative deep state ecosystem, who feels most threatened by it, would be... the original (pre-Trump) deep state ecosystem. Correct?

indeed, quite a few democrat senators being a part of it.. seems to be lying low.. waiting for the right time !!

[drnayar]

There are two levels to this conflict.

One is the slowly-unfolding, geopolitical "Thucidydes Trap" conflict which has always existed between India and the US, intensifying since 2014— a struggle of complex machinations, intricate balancing, and multi-dimensional relationship management.

The second is a no-holds-barred knife fight against a single individual— a gangster and extortionist— along with his relatively small coterie of jackals.

The gangster of the second conflict is seen as an existential threat by many of the actors and institutions who have been India's adversaries in the first conflict.

There may be ways for India to leverage this situation against the gangster.

i do suspect India being targeted quid pro quo wrt paki supporting croterie in the donald ducks inner circle., some crypto financiers and hedge fund managers [ both paki ] are involved

[Vayutuvan]

... would be... the original (pre-Trump) deep state ecosystem. Correct?

Trump's not releasing Epstein files suits them very well. Bill "Cigar" Clinton, HRH Andrew, Bill Gates III, Tom Hanks, and even folks like Marvin Minsky will slide. They willl not go to jail anytime soon. Maxwell interview drama will die in endless DoJ investigations.

[Rudradev]

... would be... the original (pre-Trump) deep state ecosystem. Correct?

Trump's not releasing Epstein files suits them very well. Bill "Cigar" Clinton, HRH Andrew, Bill Gates III, Tom Hanks, and even folks like Marvin Minsky will slide. They willl not go to jail anytime soon. Maxwell interview drama will die in endless DoJ investigations.

Epstein files are of more use as a mysterious public obsession whose actual contents are unknown, than they would ever be if revealed in their entirety.

It is in the interest of Trump's political opponents (and now, of India) that they remain fervently on top of the public's mind, without the investigation being resolved or closed, for as long as possible. The point is to continuously undermine Trump's credibility (credibility being a fungible commodity, this helps India) and erode the faith of voters in him so that he is crippled in 2028.

If the Epstein files can be linked in public perception to the Pakistani crypto-criminals laundering his money, perhaps including even his taxes to date, that's a win for India regardless of what they actually prove or contain.

[bala]

Trump's not releasing Epstein files suits them very well.

This character Epstein worked for the deep state which operates under no rules, and are into all kinds of illegal stuff. Epstein was a nasty dude. Trump had his own coterie of women/young girls since he owned miss american/miss world/miss universe and so on. He did not need Epstein for anything. Beautiful Women threw themselves on Trump all the time. Epstein may have poached some women from the miss contestants. This business of taxes and hiding stuff is not new, the nature of each builder in america is the same story. Billy boy clinton stole all charity money towards Guatamala. Of course, Bill C hosted sleepovers at the white house and we know what that means. America is not in the business of electing saints so these wild media chases are of no use. The average american has slept with how many partners?

[Vayutuvan]

The point is to continuously undermine Trump's credibility (credibility being a fungible commodity, this helps India) and erode the faith of voters in him so that he is crippled in 2028.

Legally, he cannot run in 2028. I know, I know. You already said he will control JD Vance. I doubt JD is controllable though. He seems to be pretty clean as far as politicians go. Who will be the Dem candidate in 2028? The front runner seems to be Newsom who seems to be bending to Emperor Xi as it is. He wants Chinese EVs in CA now that Musk hightailed out of there. CA is very China pasand. Think of the recent Lip-Bu Tan "scandal" created by the Orangeutan. There is also some basis to it though considering Walden's investments in Chinese chip industry. Lip-Bu Tan was man who made Cadence what it is today - the preeminent ECAD company in the world which is now led by Aniruddh Devgn ex IITB. There are only three alternatives for Chip design today (this after scores of consolidations that have happened starting from early 1990s) - Cadence, Synopsys (which bought ANSYS), and Siemens (Mentor was bought by Siemens a decade ago).

Silicon valley is too invested in China. They would do whatever it takes to foil Trump or anybody else who would want to stop China in the chip market and EV production.

Newsom would get mega contributions from the Silly-con vulture capitarists vis a vis Shapiro or any other hopeful.