India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[bala]

This may be OT, but on that Putin and US president DJT meeting in Alaska, Zels is excluded. He is hopping mad that Ukraine is decided by the two big guys in closed door meeting. We will have to see how they divide up the spoils. Whatever the outcome Zels will not be happy and it will be interesting if he refuses point blank, then next step is regime change.

Once the US and Russia settle on Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia will come of. Then India tariffs by the US will ease of.

[srin]

^^^^ If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.

Though, I suspect Trump will try to invite Zelensky at the last moment, in which case I think Putin will bail. Things will be interesting.

[Prem Kumar]

Right now our achilles heel are the GE engines

This cannot be repeated often enough! Just this item alone would give us strategic autonomy like nothing else (yes, there is Semiconductors, AI, rare-earths etc but at least there are some mitigating plans for those)

I hope the priest-king realizes this and, like Jal Jeevan or Gati Shakti programs, monitors this at the PMO level. Not the Safran ToT tamasha - but the true, homegrown engine

[KL Dubey]

This seems to be a replay of the same drama from a few months ago.

White House is considering inviting Zelenskyy to Alaska
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump- ... rcna224070

Zelensky Reacts to Trump-Putin Alaska Meeting: 'We Will Not Reward Russia'
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine ... it-2111176

Europe rallies behind Ukraine after defiant Zelensky rejects any peace plan that gives up land to Russia
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 04804.html

[RCase]

i don't think anyway ran a simulation of tarriffs.

the diamond trade will be royally screwed now. no way in hell anyone can get surats capacity.

also lab grown diamond will increase business however even there india is numero uno by a margin.

I was under the impression that 90% (or something like that) of the world's diamonds are processed for cutting in India. Diamonds are a luxury item and even if it were pricier, US women would guilt trip their men to buy them. If tariffs are increased, wouldn't the cost be passed on to the consumer? Why should India be concerned about tariffs to this sector? India could give the rare earth kind of squeeze back to the US.

[nandakumar]

i don't think anyway ran a simulation of tarriffs.

the diamond trade will be royally screwed now. no way in hell anyone can get surats capacity.

also lab grown diamond will increase business however even there india is numero uno by a margin.

I was under the impression that 90% (or something like that) of the world's diamonds are processed for cutting in India. Diamonds are a luxury item and even if it were pricier, US women would guilt trip their men to buy them. If tariffs are increased, wouldn't the cost be passed on to the consumer? Why should India be concerned about tariffs to this sector? India could give the rare earth kind of squeeze back to the US.

Even way back in 2005 or thereabouts, the Palanpur, Gujarat Jains controlled more than 50 per cent of the trade in rough, uncut and later cut and polished stones. The then Belgian Airlines- Sabena Airlines had direct flights from India and Brussels.

[Deans]

I was under the impression that 90% (or something like that) of the world's diamonds are processed for cutting in India. Diamonds are a luxury item and even if it were pricier, US women would guilt trip their men to buy them. If tariffs are increased, wouldn't the cost be passed on to the consumer? Why should India be concerned about tariffs to this sector? India could give the rare earth kind of squeeze back to the US.

Even way back in 2005 or thereabouts, the Palanpur, Gujarat Jains controlled more than 50 per cent of the trade in rough, uncut and later cut and polished stones. The then Belgian Airlines- Sabena Airlines had direct flights from India and Brussels.

The Palanpur Jain share has only increased since then, at the cost of Hasidic Jews.

[drnayar]

^^^^ If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.

Though, I suspect Trump will try to invite Zelensky at the last moment, in which case I think Putin will bail. Things will be interesting.

Aha..quite likely ! .. trump is unpredictable,that's a given . What guarantees Putin's safety ?

[drnayar]

This may be OT, but on that Putin and US president DJT meeting in Alaska, Zels is excluded. He is hopping mad that Ukraine is decided by the two big guys in closed door meeting. We will have to see how they divide up the spoils. Whatever the outcome Zels will not be happy and it will be interesting if he refuses point blank, then next step is regime change.

Once the US and Russia settle on Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia will come of. Then India tariffs by the US will ease of.

i think it may not be. Orange mans seeming gripe is Bharat is "maharaja of tariffs" ., how does end of ukraine war change this ? As i say the Tariffs are Sanctions in disguise for Bharat not opening its Farm and diary sectors. We need to diversify our exports, pivot away from the US. , they are as reliable as Trumps mood.

[gakakkad]

Munir is in Tampa for Michael kurrillas retirement party . Basically threatened to blow up the half of the world with nooks .

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.i ... 095/%3famp

[A_Gupta]

^^^

Guests invited to the function were not allowed to carry cellphones or other digital device, and no text of the speech was circulated. ThePrint reconstructed the contents of the speech from the memory of several participants who were present.

Why did Munir not let the speech be recorded?

[drnayar]

^^^

Guests invited to the function were not allowed to carry cellphones or other digital device, and no text of the speech was circulated. ThePrint reconstructed the contents of the speech from the memory of several participants who were present.

Why did Munir not let the speech be recorded?

Munir " “India is shining Mercedes coming on a highway like Ferrari [sic], but we are a dump truck full of gravel . If the truck hits the car, who is going to be the loser?”"

enough said

the next time [ just a matter of time] there wont be anything left in porkiland to retaliate with

[hanumadu]

India is the second largest consumer of natural diamonds behind USA projected to double by 2030, not just an exporter. It is the third largest consumer of jewellery behind China and USA and expected to surpass the US.

US is the largest consumer of lab grown diamonds though, but Indian market for them is increasing. We are the second largest producer of lab grown diamonds.

We have to expand our internal market while finding new markets outside the US. In a few years, the US market doesn't even matter.

[ricky_v]

^ these are the end results of offering peace ramps and face saving measures to the enemy, the goi's official stance is that the request for peace originated in pak and india agreed with riders; now the chief paki goes about brazenly touting his warmongering to the foreign buyers of the us-led nato as if such situations never existed, india has had so many instances of this stupid policy with reams of scholarly papers and texts, add this one to the pile as well, commence the articles and texts and the great indian circus over this one as well

islam clearly understood how to deal with its adherents and the measure if permanent disfigurement, if a robber robs, chop his hands and so and so forth, the point is the permanent disfigurement that the culprit and the society will remember forever for the transgression and not so much for the punishment of the crime, without which the society and the culprit are apt to forget very quickly

its the same with pakis and bds, etch a permanent feature on their ugly landscape, so that they themselves are reminded of their failure everyday, without this, imo, they will be back to their rapscallion ways in no time spreading canards and chicanery

[gakakkad]

I fully agree with Ricky v. We should have done something which would have led to deep mental scars . Like white phosphorus on Karachi port and 10 other places that would have burned for weeks .

As for as us is concerned, it has done more for Islam than Mohammad himself

[Cain Marko]

...
6. Newkiller reactor co design and co development

I hope you didn't mean it literally.

Ayyo..killer wonlee in a good way saar.

[Rudradev]

In all seriousness, play out this scenario. Another Paki terrorist provocation (inevitably) comes, and India restarts the 'paused' Op Sindoor. How does the US react? Does it join (to whatever extent) the alliance of Pakistan, PRC & Turkey ranged against India the last time? Does the Trump regime impose sanctions against India & Indian entities as the Biden govt did against Russia in 2022? Or does it remain uninvolved to the extent of denying India any intelligence inputs even if PRC takes on a more direct military role against India? What are India's options?

This possibility needs to be confronted & thoroughly wargamed.

[gakakkad]

Let's war game it ourselves . We have ton of people here who have more math ability than stodus /pentagon dinguses

[bala]

I hope you didn't mean it literally.

Ayyo..killer wonlee in a good way saar.

Watch out: there will be "Claim" vs "Reality" analysis very soon!

[gakakkad]

Also we need to better map the economic implications of trump tarriff policy . There is e/o of several splits within maga and conservative trads etc . We need to model those as well .

[bala]

News is ASML the dutch company and a "Deep State" controlled entity is gungho on supporting Semiconductor Chip ambitions in India. They are recruiting in India.

https://x.com/Apratiratha/status/1954556559964729364

[A_Gupta]

In this war game, please do not use "Deep State" loosely - state precisely who are the actors. Because some think the Deep State are communists and leftists.

The American conception of deep state is rogue intelligence and law enforcement agencies along with billionaires who fund them as also some Senators and Congressmen who enable diversion of federal budget funds; the official Department of State is never Deep State.

So, please to be precise who you mean.

IMO, if Trump is in power when Op Sindoor resumes, there is no possibility to predict what he will do. We must take each possibility and play it out.

A conventional US Department of State, say, like that run by Biden, or even by Marc Rubio if he did not kowtow to Trump, would neither want terrorism to prevail nor for India to have a clear cut victory over Pakistan - by clear cut victory I mean the "etch a permanent feature on their ugly landscape, so that they themselves are reminded of their failure everyday". In my estimation, the US will not want that to happen, because Pakistan should always be kept available to be the dump truck filled with gravel to park across India's speedway.

[Rudradev]

Agreed @AGupta.

No "Deep State" references in the wargame. We have to state precisely whom we mean in any instance.

Ok, so here goes. We start with Aug 15, 2025, and all prevailing conditions remain the same as they are now.

Pakistan carries out another high-visibility massacre of Hindus in India (J&K or elsewhere). Clamour starts from all political quarters in India, especially the opposition, that Modi must act NOW or he has failed to ensure security.

What does India do?

(Perhaps we can frame each round by Engle Matrix game rules.

Each turn, we say
1) ABC is the near-term (0-15 days from now) action the actor concerned will take
2) XYZ is the intended outcome (15-30 days from now) of that action.
3 a, b, c...) Are the reasons why the action ABC is likely to accomplish outcome XYZ
4 a, b, c...) Are the reasons why action ABC could FAIL (or be insufficent) to accomplish outcome XYZ

Then decide if the outcome fails/succeeds probabilistically and move to the next actor.

Actors: India, US, China, Pakistan)

More on the Engle Matrix system here— it is used by professional security analysts, militaries, professional think tanks etc.

http://www.mapsymbs.com/wdmatrix.html

[A_Gupta]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 204972.cms
Synopsis
Niti Aayog retracted a paper suggesting GM soybean and corn imports from the US, highlighting India's resistance to transgenic food due to biosafety concerns. This decision occurred despite US trade pressure and Niti Aayog's initial assessment that imports wouldn't harm domestic production. The government's stance aligns with groups opposing GM food, emphasizing self-reliance.

The paper, Promoting India-US agricultural trade under the new US trade regime, was released in May and co-authored by Ramesh Chand, a Niti Aayog member, and senior adviser Raka Saxena. It suggested that GM corn could be imported for ethanol blending and for by-products such as Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles. “US corn is cheaper and can be used to meet India’s biofuel targets without disrupting local food and feed markets,” the authors wrote.

[A_Gupta]

Scenario 1: Asim Munir, ISI feeds US CentCom "intelligence" that the terrorist attack in India was done by ISIS-Khorasan. Pakistan publicly states so as well, and mentions it too is a victim of ISIS-K. Meanwhile the currently (the first week ater the attack) scant evidence indicates to Indian intelligence that it is TRF/LeT. American intelligence, apart from that provided by Paki ISI is similar.

[Rudradev]

Scenario 1.1

GOI
1) Action: uses domestic political capital to avoid an immediate reaction, saying India will investigate the incident and retaliate at a time and place of its choosing as always.
2) Intended Outcome: buys time (up to 60 days) for tumultuous political realignments to stabilize and Indian diplomacy to shape an advantageous situation

3) Reasons it will succeed in achieving the outcome
a) Indian public are aware of the Trump betrayal and see the need for caution in a changed world, hence won't pressure the GOI for immediate retaliation.
b) We are cautiously optimistic that world events (and potentially events within the USA) will draw Trump's attention away from the region within 60 days, giving us a freer hand.

4) Reasons it may not succeed
a) Russia Ukraine is likely to be intractable, and hence sanctions on India & poor Indo-US relations are likely to continue past 60 days
b) INC & allies could make huge political capital out of the "surrender" narrative that Modi cannot afford, given upcoming state elections

2 reasons for, 2 against. Weight =0

Random number generator: Action happens and is successful. India does not retaliate overtly for the time being.

Next turn, USA, who wants to try?

[Tanaji]

Rudradevji and others:

If we are to wargame we will need an Umpire. Perhaps Ramanaji or someone can adjudge?

[Rudradev]

Sure.

Generally with this Engle Matrix format, the idea is that players (and non-player members on this forum) all take an objective stance to evaluate the reasons for/against an action's success at achieving the outcome... so it's like collaborative umpiring. But it would be great to have Ramana garu, SShridhar garu or other forum veterans make the final call.

[drnayar]

News is ASML the dutch company and a "Deep State" controlled entity is gungho on supporting Semiconductor Chip ambitions in India. They are recruiting in India.

https://x.com/Apratiratha/status/1954556559964729364

as someone commented whats their role , exactly ? their equipment comes into play if less than 10 nm ?

currently., ASML does not have chip designing or manufacturing operations in India, but it does have a significant presence through a partnership with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to simplify its global business processes

[bala]

as someone commented whats their role, exactly ? their equipment comes into play if less than 10 nm ?

Yes, ASML is into optical precise stuff since at low nm doping of semiconductor wafers has to be controlled precisely. In semiconductors the vendors rule the roost on the fab floor. Intel used/still does to pay more than MSRP prices for vendor equipment because if they stop working then only the vendor knows how to fix things. So they pay them for on-site support 24x7x365 too. It is about getting premium attention.

When you are in univ/school Prof draws straight line on chalkboard but things are not like that in reality, tis a wavy curve with ditches and peaks on the wafer at microscopic levels!

[hanumadu]

News is ASML the dutch company and a "Deep State" controlled entity is gungho on supporting Semiconductor Chip ambitions in India. They are recruiting in India.

https://x.com/Apratiratha/status/1954556559964729364

as someone commented whats their role , exactly ? their equipment comes into play if less than 10 nm ?

currently., ASML does not have chip designing or manufacturing operations in India, but it does have a significant presence through a partnership with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to simplify its global business processes

Don't know about ASML, but Tokyo Electron is partnering with Tata electronics for its fab plant in Dholera. It is also planning to open a GCC in UP and a manufacturing plant. I think Japan fell behind the west in semiconductor manufacturing by design. The west wanted themselves to be the leaders in this important technology and put their might behind ASML. There is no way a piddly country like the Netherlands would make the most cutting edge of equipment without a lot of help from others. Just look at philips, overpriced barely functioning gadgets.

I hope Japan gets its EUV working. Indian PC market is worth 7 B now compared to US 12.5 but growing faster. We need to wean away from the west or at least need a hedge and Japan can provide it while profiting from our market. Of course, eventually we have to make our own stuff in every critical technology. By 2035, we should be independent of the west either by developing all critical technologies ourselves or supporting rivals to the west. India, Japan, Russia and other like minded countries like Brazil should fund and develop alternatives to the west, even if in secret.

[sanjaykumar]

Phillips was huge in consumer goods a few decades ago. Eg the first cassette recorder.

[hanumadu]

Phillips was huge in consumer goods a few decades ago. Eg the first cassette recorder.

Yeah, a few decades ago. IIRC, there used to be a philips radio with a pull out antenna and all.

[Vayutuvan]

Phillips was huge in consumer goods a few decades ago. Eg the first cassette recorder.

There are two very good products from Philips - Sonicare line of electric toothbrushes and Norelco line of electric shavers. They are superb. No other brand comes close.

[sanjaykumar]

Used philshave for years. Panasonic may be a bit better.

[A_Gupta]

Sorry, I did not complete Scenario I

Scenario 1: Asim Munir, ISI feeds US CentCom "intelligence" that the terrorist attack in India was done by ISIS-Khorasan. Pakistan publicly states so as well, and mentions it too is a victim of ISIS-K. Meanwhile the currently (the first week ater the attack) scant evidence indicates to Indian intelligence that it is TRF/LeT. American intelligence, apart from that provided by Paki ISI is similar.

GoI:
1. Relies on the intelligence it has, and a week after the attack strikes three terrorist targets in Pakistan. After that there is some back and forth bombardment, but like in round 1, a cessation of hostilities is agreed to.

Intended outcome - maintain credibility by resuming Op Sindoor

Reasons it works:

1. Indian public has confidence in the government, in spite of the usual Opposition drama. Most wish for that permanent scar on the Pakistani landscape; but the GoI says like before, it had limited objectives, which is achieved.

Reasons it doesn't work:

1. Pakistan has managed to spread doubt via the Western media about its responsibility. The general western media (and Chinese media) reaction is that India acted irresponsibly. Reactions of governments are more muted. The pro-Palestinian public protests in the West add some anti-India slogans. Pakistan as always, claims victory and success in isolating India in diplomatic relations. Pakistan announces it is doubling its investment in the Trump family crypto, thereby stilling US critical response, if there was going to be any. Israel stands with India; Russia is still mired in Ukraine and there is a private phone call between the Indian PM and Putin, but in public, Russia is silent.

[VinodTK]

'Goal is to crush Putin's customers, India, China and Brazil': Lindsey Graham on Putin's 50% tariff

Senator Lindsey Graham said every country buying Russian oil and keeping President Vladimir Putin's war machine will have to pay a heavy price, like India. During an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press, Graham said he played golf with President Donald Trump yesterday. "Saturday was the ten-day deadline. China is very much on his mind. He can tell you the top five oil purchasers of Ukrainian oil. He knows who they are. And if this doesn't end well with Putin, everybody buying Russian oil and keeping his war machine going in Russia, you're going to pay a heavy price like India," Graham said.

"I am here to tell you that President Trump will end this war in a way to prevent a third invasion and not to entice China to take Taiwan. We're not out to humiliate Putin, we're out to get a deal to make sure there's no third invasion," Graham said.
The US senator said Trump spoke to him a lot about China and also about two other countries that buy Russian oil.
Graham said Putin does not care about the sanctions and he evades them. Putin does not care how many Russians die but the only thing that he cares about is his customers. "Putin could give a damn about sanctions. He evades them. He could give a damn about how many Russians die. The one thing that he can't tolerate and live with, if we go after his customers. The whole goal is to crush his customers, India, and China, and Brazil. That if you keep buying Putin's oil and prop up his war machine, you will be denied access to our economy. This is a new strategy. Trump is all in in terms of going after Putin's customers if we can't end this well. Without oil and gas revenue, Russia collapses," Graham said.

Graham also revealed that the US. is listening to European allies ahead of a much-publicized meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska this week, saying: "I think everybody knows that how this war ends can be a good thing or a bad thing."
"If it ends in a way that looks like that Putin is overly rewarded, there goes Taiwan," Graham said. "You can't end a war without talking. I do hope that Zelensky can be part of the process. I'll leave that up to the White House."

[arshyam]

Just a request about the war-gaming sub-discussion: it deserves its own thread. Can we create a new one and move it there?

[gakakkad]

^^ fully agree . We need to bring back some of the more academic aspects . We have PhDs who trained under bhabha ,nash , feynman ,Shockley(piss be upon him ) etc . Let's put them to work with all this so they teach us stuff and not just fight with each other

[Deans]

Just a request about the war-gaming sub-discussion: it deserves its own thread. Can we create a new one and move it there?

Great idea.