India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[gakakkad]

War game for India hedging on US inflation.

Pressure-Track Model: “Tariffs on the Line”
1) Tracks (0–10 scale unless noted)
• Inflation Pressure (IP): captures CPI/retail price optics felt by voters (apparel, jewelry, APIs/generics, shipping). Getting there. My subjective analysis is that it is 3/10 now. Maybe 4/10.
• Business Lobby Pressure (BL): retailers, pharma, auto, logistics, trade groups. Not much pressure yet. I ‘d give 2. If India stops boeing orders and gives them to airbus than could increase. Problem is dependance on NVIDIA chip for AI.
• Swing-State Politics (SP): district/state-level job/price backlash that campaign cares about. This will also be a dependant variable on inflation.
• Legal & Institutional Headwinds (LH): court challenges, congressional pressure, WTO heat (0–6). Problem is that the time line of court is several months to a year. I wouldn’t bet on this . giving it 1/6
• Geopolitical Leverage (GL): White House view that tariffs help extract concessions (energy/defense/Russia stance). I’D GIVE THIS 6
• India Resolve/Workarounds (IR): India’s ability to diversify markets, craft carve-outs, or offer face-saving deals (0–6). I’d give it 3-4
Right now I feel IP=3-4, BL=2, SP=2, LH=1, GL=6, IR=3.




engles matrix




to be continued.

[gakakkad]

what are the potential geopolitical diversions where yanks would be forced to align with India. could a minor PRC-Philipines skirmish be escalated? that is one arena russkies won't be involved. just like india does not have a dog in NoKo fight.

[A_Gupta]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

[gakakkad]

most likely just bluster. but all they can do is terrorism. failed monkey has a lot of domestic pressure as well. ttp/bla is killing uniformed jihadis in 2 digits almost everyday. shortage of made in china mass produced hoors in jannat. other core commandoos are obviously not happy..

[Prem Kumar]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

We also need to ask ourselves the question: who is emboldening Munir to make these claims from the US soil?

It seems to me that the US & Pakis dont like that India has called the Paki nuclear bluff, not once, but 3 times (three surgical strikes). Each strike has been more destructive than the previous one. So, both of them want a rollback of this boldness. Hence, Munir is drawing new redlines

The US is tacitly (or not so tacitly) encouraging Munir to continue his jihadi attacks on India, see India's response & goad Pakis into launching long-range missiles. This is intentional destabilization & a heightened deterrence posture (lowered nuclear-threshold)

It may all be a war-game to the US, but this has serious existential risks for India

I hope the Overton Window moves quickly for our Nat-Sec establishment. Any further jihadi attack on India should result in a full-scale decapitation strike on the PAF. We should remove their #1 nuclear-delivery vector within the first hour of hostilities before the nuclear-bogey can be raised by the Pakis. We missed doing it during Op Sindoor, because mentally we were not prepared for this. By the time of next Op Sindoor, we must be ready both mentally & militarily

There is no other option

[Ambar]

It is not a matter of if but a matter of when Pakistan will attempt another 26/11 or Hamas style 10/7 on Indian soil. Munir is emboldened and knows he has the full backing of naarangee. Munir is more Musharraf than Raheel Sharrif, we saw near monthly attacks on our cities during the time of Musharraf when he had the complete backing of George Bush.

[drnayar]

Both Asim Munir and his sidekick have said that next time they will strike deep in India, starting with the east.

What weapons will they use? Will india be able to distinguish this from a first strike? Is not creating a nuclear scare one of Pakistan’s goals in order to get international intervention? If India’s nuclear forces go on covert alert, will someone desh drohi leak that to the media?

We also need to ask ourselves the question: who is emboldening Munir to make these claims from the US soil?

It seems to me that the US & Pakis dont like that India has called the Paki nuclear bluff, not once, but 3 times (three surgical strikes). Each strike has been more destructive than the previous one. So, both of them want a rollback of this boldness. Hence, Munir is drawing new redlines

The US is tacitly (or not so tacitly) encouraging Munir to continue his jihadi attacks on India, see India's response & goad Pakis into launching long-range missiles. This is intentional destabilization & a heightened deterrence posture (lowered nuclear-threshold)

It may all be a war-game to the US, but this has serious existential risks for India

I hope the Overton Window moves quickly for our Nat-Sec establishment. Any further jihadi attack on India should result in a full-scale decapitation strike on the PAF. We should remove their #1 nuclear-delivery vector within the first hour of hostilities before the nuclear-bogey can be raised by the Pakis. We missed doing it during Op Sindoor, because mentally we were not prepared for this. By the time of next Op Sindoor, we must be ready both mentally & militarily

There is no other option

if you want similarities look at Ukraine Russia conflict template, America will escalate all the way with respect to a future Pakistan India conflict.


Failed marsaals " nuking world" likely to have blessings of America.

I am one of those who think we stopped too soon wrt Op Sindhoor, we should have taken out their subs and their port

[Rudradev]

Pakistan wants a war with India on predefined terms that it can "win"— to demonstrate recovery of H&D, gain political capital for Failed Marshal & TSPA domestically, and elevate Pakistan's profile as an India-hyphenated "rival" internationally.

As Prem Kumar noted, the US wants very much the same thing— an India Pakistan "war" that goes according to the projection of Pentagon & CIA analysts of the Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh era, in which there is a "stalemate" and "significant losses on both sides" leading to "highly elevated risk of spiraling into a nuclear exchange". The US WILL put its weight behind Pakistan to ensure that the next India-Pakistan military conflict matches this preferred scenario.

This is where Trump, the Pak-Pasand generals of CENTCOM, and those Non Proliferation Mullahs of old (Perkovitch, Einhorn, and their successors) can make common cause— Trump because he gets the glory of "stopping a nuclear war for realzz", generals because the arms pipeline to Pakistan will open back up and there's lots of money to be made post retirement, and NP Mullahs because they can finally achieve their dream of "cap, rollback & eliminate India's nuclear weapons program".

This is a more dangerous situation for India than at any time since Modi became the PM.

[Rakesh]

Great analysis both Rudradev and Prem Kumar. Thank You to you both.

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1162277841217523714 ---> "Until now, our nuclear policy has been based on 'No First Use' -- but what happens in future depends on the circumstances," says Defence Minister @RajnathSingh at Pokhran.

[drnayar]

Pakistan wants a war with India on predefined terms that it can "win"— to demonstrate recovery of H&D, gain political capital for Failed Marshal & TSPA domestically, and elevate Pakistan's profile as an India-hyphenated "rival" internationally.

As Prem Kumar noted, the US wants very much the same thing— an India Pakistan "war" that goes according to the projection of Pentagon & CIA analysts of the Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh era, in which there is a "stalemate" and "significant losses on both sides" leading to "highly elevated risk of spiraling into a nuclear exchange". The US WILL put its weight behind Pakistan to ensure that the next India-Pakistan military conflict matches this preferred scenario.

This is where Trump, the Pak-Pasand generals of CENTCOM, and those Non Proliferation Mullahs of old (Perkovitch, Einhorn, and their successors) can make common cause— Trump because he gets the glory of "stopping a nuclear war for realzz", generals because the arms pipeline to Pakistan will open back up and there's lots of money to be made post retirement, and NP Mullahs because they can finally achieve their dream of "cap, rollback & eliminate India's nuclear weapons program".

This is a more dangerous situation for India than at any time since Modi became the PM.

In a way this is bound to happen at some point as Bharat enhances it's economic and military potential.

US trying to hedge against that eventuality by propping failed Marshall and don't be surprised if an American base comes up in beediland. The company at the moment operates forward bases out of parts of beediland.

[gakakkad]

https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20250811

BLA designated as foreign terror organization.

I think this will be used as an instrument to resume transferring weapons to porkis using taxpayer money .

[gakakkad]

I didn't quite understand the legalese in the above order so I used chatgpt to explain implications.

More Aliases and Sub-Groups Added
Before: The listing only included “Balochistan Liberation Army” and “Baloch Liberation Army” and the abbreviation “BLA.”

Now: OFAC has added:

Arabic name: بلۏچستان آجوییء لشکر

MAJEED BRIGADE (a suicide attack unit of the BLA)

ZEPHYR INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS BUREAU (an intelligence wing)

FATEH SQUAD (another operational cell)

Why this matters: Adding aliases prevents the group from evading sanctions by operating under other names.

Net net , it appears that bla was always designated as a terror organization. They ve added aliases and it's Arabic name to the list .

[williams]

The problem with both the Pakis and the Americans is that they are good in planning something offensive, but are poor to understand defensive posture. During Op Sindhoor they were so poor to defend themselves and all they could keep doing is send more drones for offensive task. Now let us talk about American support for the Pakis if any. What was provided to them on the ground other than calling Indian leadership? I will tell you even if we would have taken few more hours and destroyed Paki ports, Oil and Gas facilities and civilian airports before saying we are pausing the operation, Trump would behave the same. We just did not plan such a thing and we are ready to move on.

The era of triggering major escalation with terror attacks is over for the Pakis. In a few years no amount of US or Chinese help can get them water. They will have to indulge in begging India if at all anything can happen in that front. Trump and Munir will be gone and no sane American politician will risk a major escalation with India that too based on Paki terrorist attack. Pakis can have a temporary consolation that their field Marshal gets some audience in the US and thats about it. We have a lot of options to keep the Pakis on the foot. We have not even started something serious in Baluchistan. Given how friendly we are with the Afghans now, we can slowly transform some area in the North as a logistics hub. Pakis are screwed no matter what.

US policy of irritating India may look good to feed Trumps ego right now. In the long term, this is a losing proposition for them. Everybody talks about Paki Geographic advantage. Have you all thought about India's geography advantage after Pakis are reduced to zero (which BTW is happening as we speak) Geopolitical timeline does not move in months, it moves in years and some real estate reality show fool like Trump cannot comprehend it.

[Amber G.]

I generally trying to stay away now for posing here/or look here .. too many of trump fans here..
But sharing a news: America designates the Balochistan Liberation Army and Majeed Brgade as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

Trump showing extra love for Pakistan and Munir...

[Tanaji]

I generally trying to stay away now for posing here/or look here .. too many of trump fans here..
But sharing a news: America designates the Balochistan Liberation Army and Majeed Brgade as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

Trump showing extra love for Pakistan and Munir...

Where do you see this? Most posts in the last few pages have no love for Trump….

I still maintain that I hope he gets a third term and all that it entails

[Rudradev]

America designates the Balochistan Liberation Army and Majeed Brgade as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

This means India can potentially be accused of sponsoring terrorism if shown to be connected to the BLA.

Not even in the worst periods of the Clinton, Bush, or Obama presidencies was there this level of "equal-equal" from Washington (Yet another term from the old days of BRF discourse that was seen very frequently during the Bush-arraf/Colin Powell days, but had almost disappeared entirely for several years until now).

[gakakkad]

As a trump voter in the last election I've had strong buyers remorse . As have a number of people I know both of desi and other origin . I am definitely going the other direction in the midterms .

Also we need to figure out the entire dynamics . I don't see an endgame that would be favorable to us deep state here . But the Ukraine Russia thingy shows that they don't think these things through.

I think sindoor 2 should be around us midterms next year when people least expect.

As bla was a terror designate since 2019 (trump 1) the recent thingy probably won't have that much impact . Highly doubt the porkies are getting any respite from them .

[drnayar]

https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20250811

BLA designated as foreign terror organization.

I think this will be used as an instrument to resume transferring weapons to porkis using taxpayer money .

Remember ., its all about OIL in the Baluchistan province. They want the BLA out of the way to get at its resources. America back to its old game. More democracy coming.

[Rudradev]

What oil baba?

Some natural gas (Sui reserves) is there in Balochistan— not enough for export or even Paki domestic energy needs, but at least it exists. Where is this fantastic trove of oil deposits coming from? If it was there at all, wouldn't the Chinese have discovered and exploited it during the 20-odd years of CPEC & Gwadar development?

[gakakkad]

i have a feeling the dumbness ,corruption and susceptibleness to flattery of the current admin are utilized by the porki admin . also could a lower level person made this change (basically just adds aliases ) without DOS/Treaury bosses needing to be in the loop ?

[chetak]

What oil baba?

Some natural gas (Sui reserves) is there in Balochistan— not enough for export or even Paki domestic energy needs, but at least it exists. Where is this fantastic trove of oil deposits coming from? If it was there at all, wouldn't the Chinese have discovered and exploited it during the 20-odd years of CPEC & Gwadar development?

Rudradev ji,


this is an old game that they have played before.

remember the "weapons of mass destruction" gambit, it was conjured up out of thin air and no one ever mentioned it again after they went in.

the presstitute media was roped it, besides the other two usual suspects of deep state and the MIC

[drnayar]

00:13 Savio Rodrigues claims that a conspiracy involving the CIA, Trump, and deep state aims to remove PM Modi from power.
00:41 The CIA has a 12-month timeline to create division within the BJP and confusion in the RSS.
01:07 The operation, dubbed "diversion, deception, and division," seeks to undermine the BJP's unity.
02:17 Economic interests and free trade agreements are central to the deep state's agenda against Modi's government.
02:56 Targeting of BJP MPs is part of an effort to create turmoil within the party and its parliament representation.
04:39 There are 37 MPs reportedly being coerced or influenced by the deep state and CIA for their agenda.
05:58 There may be a need for India to develop contingency plans for NRIs in response to global tensions.
06:51 The "diversion" includes tariff issues that distract from the deep state's true intentions against Modi.
09:07 Efforts to damage confidence in Indian institutions are ongoing, aiming to create societal division and confusion.
10:02 There is a call for government investigations to identify vulnerabilities within India's systems amid these threats.

[Y. Kanan]

So much for all the Amreeki love that I railed against for the last 20+ years on this forum. Looks like we got backstabbed again. This is the 1960's all over again, just as I predicted from the start.

I've only been saying this for 20 years: the US cannot and should not ever be trusted as any kind of strategic or even transactional partner. Amazing nobody saw this betrayal coming.

[gakakkad]

I think we need to be more analyst. Deep state is not monolithic. John bolton ,niki Haley and sununu who are old guard neocons have spoken against trump cosying up to terrorists and penalizing India . We need to figure out what is actually going on .