India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Rudradev]

^^^
Taza Khabar from New Delhi - - India on Tuesday cleared the project for buying 97 LCA Tejas Mark 1A fighter jets for the Indian Air Force

That's great, but what are they going to be propelled with?

[Vayutuvan]

Reeeeeal quick data point.

About 6 hours ago The Atlantic (a liberal Dem-friendly portal) posted a hit piece against Modi & India from a pure Pakistani propaganda perspective. ...
The Atlantic even temporarily (it has brazenly hosted many, many anti-India, anti-Hindu, anti-Modi hit pieces over the years and never taken one down).

How such a storied magazine has degenerated into a liberal dem mouthpiece.

From Wikipdeia

It was founded in 1857 in Boston as The Atlantic Monthly, a literary and cultural magazine that published leading writers' commentary on education, the abolition of slavery, and other major political issues of that time. Its founders included Francis H. Underwood[3][4] and prominent writers Ralph Waldo Emerson, Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr., Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, Harriet Beecher Stowe, and John Greenleaf Whittier.[5][6] James Russell Lowell was its first editor.

Now owned by Laurene Powell Jobs - widow of Steve Jobs.

Looks it is owned by this non-profit funded by Laurene Jobs who participated in the recently concluded Maha Kumbh at Prayagraj.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerson_Collective

Emerson Collective is an organization focused on education, immigration reform, the environment, media and journalism, and health. Founded by billionaire philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs,[2] the collective, which operates under a limited liability company (LLC) model, uses philanthropy, impact investing, advocacy, and community engagement as tools to broadly spur change in the United States and abroad.[2] The organization is considered to be one of the leading groups engaged in philanthrocapitalism.[8] One of its most high-profile acquisitions was its majority interest in The Atlantic magazine in 2017.
...
In 1997, Powell Jobs had co-founded, together with Carlos Watson, the nonprofit organization College Track, a college completion program to combat the achievement gap among students of color.[10][11] When Emerson Collective was established in 2004, grants and investments largely focused on the education sector. When Powell Jobs began learning more about the challenges plaguing immigrant students, particularly those whose undocumented status made it difficult to attend college, Emerson Collective broadened its portfolio to include immigration reform and advocacy.[2]

Powell Jobs and Emerson Collective were strong advocates of the creation of President Barack Obama's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program and have continued to push for permanent legislation to provide "Dreamers" with a path to citizenship.[12] In October 2016, she wrote the article "Immigrants Fuel Innovation. Let's Not Waste Their Potential" for WIRED.[13]

[Jay]

Emerson Collective is an organization focused on education, immigration reform, the environment, media and journalism, and health. Founded by billionaire philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs,[2] the collective, which operates under a limited liability company (LLC) model, uses philanthropy, impact investing, advocacy, and community engagement as tools to broadly spur change in the United States and abroad.[2] The organization is considered to be one of the leading groups engaged in philanthrocapitalism.[8] One of its most high-profile acquisitions was its majority interest in The Atlantic magazine in 2017.
...
In 1997, Powell Jobs had co-founded, together with Carlos Watson, the nonprofit organization College Track, a college completion program to combat the achievement gap among students of color.[10][11] When Emerson Collective was established in 2004, grants and investments largely focused on the education sector. When Powell Jobs began learning more about the challenges plaguing immigrant students, particularly those whose undocumented status made it difficult to attend college, Emerson Collective broadened its portfolio to include immigration reform and advocacy.[2]

Powell Jobs and Emerson Collective were strong advocates of the creation of President Barack Obama's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program and have continued to push for permanent legislation to provide "Dreamers" with a path to citizenship.[12] In October 2016, she wrote the article "Immigrants Fuel Innovation. Let's Not Waste Their Potential" for WIRED.[13]

I do not know what's "morally objectionable" anything about this.

[pravula]

^^^
Taza Khabar from New Delhi - - India on Tuesday cleared the project for buying 97 LCA Tejas Mark 1A fighter jets for the Indian Air Force

That's great, but what are they going to be propelled with?

wing and a prayer

[gakakkad]

They have been delivering engines of late it seems . How difficult would it be to reconfigure them to saffran or russky engines ? Is n^3 or any aerospace dude around ?

[Amber G.]

^^^ ^
FWIW: Tejas Mk 1A Production: Engine delays resolved; Nashik rollout July 2025; 12 jets in 2025; 16–24/year after 2025–26; deliveries begin by March 2026
Kaveri Engine Program: Decades-long challenges; revival underway; flight trials (2025–26); KDE flight testing in Russia by late 2025, certification in 2026
Tejas Mk 2 Prototype : >60% built; unveiling late 2025; first flight early 2026; induction by 2028–29; cockpit tech demo showcased..
Discussions are underway for collaboration with international firms like Safran (France) for future engine development—possibly to power Tejas Mk 2 or even AMCA - India’s 5th-gen fighter
- HAL is also employing digital manufacturing and laser-guided precision to fast-track assembly..etc

Some links: (Last few weeks)
Large touch screen, side joystick & less switches: Tejas Mk2 simulator provides first details look of India's 4.5 gen fighter jet


Engines of Independence: Why the heart of India’s fighter jets must beat at home


LCA Tejas on fast track: GE to supply two F404 engines a month; India plans to buy Javelin missiles, Stryker vehicles, says Def Secy ((July 2025 Article)

Also see viewtopic.php?p=2657236#p2657236

[chetak]

Someone should tell bessent that china not only buys russian oil, it also buys sanctioned iranian oil.

But there is precious little he can do about it so he bows and scrapes to the chinese and tries to bully India.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile about that oil import from Russia ..

Taza Khabar:
Amid US tensions, Indian Oil, BPCL resume buying Russian oil for September as discounts widen

[uddu]

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1957968424245895238
Megh Updates ™
@MeghUpdates
Indian students heading to the US drop 46% after visa policy changes. China down 26%.

With Asia being the world’s biggest education market, US universities now face major financial strain during peak summer intake.

Policy shift or self-sabotage?

[chanakyaa]

Meanwhile about that oil import from Russia ..

Taza Khabar:
Amid US tensions, Indian Oil, BPCL resume buying Russian oil for September as discounts widen

Taking a step back and focusing on the demand from the US for India to reduce Russian oil, wondering who stands to benefit, Cui Bono?? Is the US actually helping China? There are not many countries around the world with the size, scale and wherewithal to deal with the Russian crude in size. If India reduces, it makes Russians more dependent on China, and the Chinese can demand more reduction in price, which increases profits and helps their economy. We are talking $billions here. Who is the US trying to help and hurt (G2 better than G3, G4...)?

[Ambar]

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1957968424245895238
Megh Updates ™
@MeghUpdates
Indian students heading to the US drop 46% after visa policy changes. China down 26%.

With Asia being the world’s biggest education market, US universities now face major financial strain during peak summer intake.

Policy shift or self-sabotage?

It is mostly because of visa rejections and not due to lack of interest. Although i do question the sanity of those who take over Rs 50 lakh+ in education loans with high interest rates to study in US given the current job market, H1b lottery system and the current political climate.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile about that oil import from Russia ..

Taza Khabar:
Amid US tensions, Indian Oil, BPCL resume buying Russian oil for September as discounts widen

Another taza khabar ..this time reported in Reuter:
Russia expects India to keep buying its oil and seeks China-India-Russia talks

--
Meanwhile:

Addressing a press conference in the national capital, Russian Deputy Chief of Mission Roman Babushkin said the US' pressure on India over the latter's procurement of Russian crude oil was "unjustified" and "unilateral".

"..If Indian goods are facing difficulties entering the US market, the Russian market is welcoming Indian exports....," he said. "The sanctions are hitting those who are imposing them. It is a challenging situation for India but we have trust in our ties. We are confident that India-Russia energy cooperation will continue notwithstanding the external pressure."

"Let's proceed from the fact that Russia is the biggest supplier to India of crude oil. And India's demands are growing year by year. Certainly, this is a perfect case of mutual accommodation and complementarity of our economies. We are quite certain that our cooperation will continue," he added

[g.sarkar]

It is mostly because of visa rejections and not due to lack of interest. Although i do question the sanity of those who take over Rs 50 lakh+ in education loans with high interest rates to study in US given the current job market, H1b lottery system and the current political climate.

I think Indian students want to study in a country that has English spoken and a chance to get PR. This reduces the popularity of Germany and France. Seeing the long waiting time for PR and Citizenship, US can not be that popular anymore.
Gautam

[Rudradev]

Disinfo Lab, an OSINT source with a solid track record, exposes the Paki-Trump crypto deal in substantial detail here:

https://x.com/DisinfoLab/status/1958140 ... 85395?s=19

[g.sarkar]

There is not much going on in Paklands that R&AW does not know. If Trump has a deal India will know.
Gautam

[Vayutuvan]

I do not know what's "morally objectionable" anything about this.

American billionaires are "philanthropists" while Indian capitalists are bloodsuckers. They suck blood of the downtrodden and support a "dictatorial" party which oppresses the common abdul and ayesha.

[Vayutuvan]

They have been delivering engines of late it seems . How difficult would it be to reconfigure them to saffran or russky engines ? Is n^3 or any aerospace dude around ?

Wellneigh impossible, especially at this stage where the assembly is setup and popping out the aircraft at a regular rate. ll jigs, fixtures, overhead gantries, and in general the entire workflow has been mapped out already. All that process has to be redesigned completely.

In medical terms, it is like redesigning your operating theatre for a brand new procedure with a totally new critical instrument instead of the old one.

[Rudradev]

There is not much going on in Paklands that R&AW does not know. If Trump has a deal India will know.
Gautam

Actually, I have a feeling RAW & GOI knew well *before* Op Sindoor. All the WLF - PCCC deals were finalized as of April 26th.

Think about what was hit inside Pakistan and where. If India & US were truly in a state of great bonhomie and trusted strategic partnership in early May 2025, would GOI have allowed certain installations (and assets, and staffers) to be hit by the IAF? Not even by mistake.

[Amber G.]

Sharing a few tweets:

n Moscow, EAM Jaishankar says "India, Russia relationship has been one of the steadiest relationship"
<full remarks>

Some of very well known Trump supporters:

Is Bessent really saying what I’m hearing?? . That Trump will direct the use of other countries’ sovereign wealth funds.? - Asha Motwani

<Problem for India is that Europe, Japan & Korea are swallowing extreme levels of humiliation

Trump's Treasury Secretary says that US will treat their money as its own "sovereign wealth fund" to be used at "discretion of the President"

So they will be colonial subjects ... openly.

Trump is saying that if all others can openly agree to be servants, why not India?

US is not offering alliance, deal, anything ... just pure master-servant relationship

Scuttling 25 years of momentum with the only country, India, that can serve as a counterweight to Chinese dominance in Asia would be a strategic disaster"- Nikki Haley

[Amber G.]

There is not much going on in Paklands that R&AW does not know. If Trump has a deal India will know.
Gautam

Pak terror group goes for digital fundraising to rebuild structures destroyed during Op Sindoor

In what is seen as “digital hawala”, money is being transferred to digital wallets used by Masood Azhar’s family members. Several social media posts have been intercepted as well, urging the need to raise funds with the aim of building new training centres. Use of digital spaces to fund terrorism is not new. In fact, a July report of FATF, quoting the Indian finance ministry, said that online payment services are being used to fund terror attacks.

[Vayutuvan]

Who is the US trying to help and hurt (G2 better than G3, G4...)?

Wowo. Great point. I think both the US and China want a G2. European folded. Russia and the US will kiss and make up (at least in the short term). Brazil is ghar kee murgi. SA doesn;t have the same heft as India. That leaves only India of the BRICS to be dealt with.

[Vayutuvan]

... sanity of those who take over Rs 50 lakh+ in education loans with high interest rates to study in US given the current job market, H1b lottery system and the current political climate.

I think Indian students want to study in a country that has English spoken and a chance to get PR. This reduces the popularity of Germany and France. Seeing the long waiting time for PR and Citizenship, US can not be that popular anymore.

@ambar ji, in addition to @Gautam ji's observation, those who are unable to get H1B in the US will get good offers all over the world including Germany, Australia, NZ, UAE, Saudi (especially for Chem/process engineers), Singapore, even China and South American countries. While they are not as good as the US, they pay well enough to be able to pay off a loan of INR 50 lacs in 2-3 years if the person lives frugally and not take on new debt, i.e. buy a house/flat with mortgage and buy luxury vehicles/EVs instead of the good old Honda Civic/Toyota Camry or equivalent.

[A_Gupta]

The White House has termed as “sanctions” the additional tariffs on India.

[drnayar]

The White House has termed as “sanctions” the additional tariffs on India.

We were already saying that in brf before it was official!

[drnayar]

Sharing a few tweets:

n Moscow, EAM Jaishankar says "India, Russia relationship has been one of the steadiest relationship"
<full remarks>

Some of very well known Trump supporters:

Is Bessent really saying what I’m hearing?? That Trump will direct the use of other countries’ sovereign wealth funds.? - Asha Motwani

<Problem for India is that Europe, Japan & Korea are swallowing extreme levels of humiliation

Trump's Treasury Secretary says that US will treat their money as its own "sovereign wealth fund" to be used at "discretion of the President"

So they will be colonial subjects ... openly.

Trump is saying that if all others can openly agree to be servants, why not India?

US is not offering alliance, deal, anything ... just pure master-servant relationship

Scuttling 25 years of momentum with the only country, India, that can serve as a counterweight to Chinese dominance in Asia would be a strategic disaster"- Nikki Haley

Indeed America making a reverse Marshall plan to get out of its own mess

[A_Gupta]

The White House has termed as “sanctions” the additional tariffs on India.

We were already saying that in brf before it was official!

The difference is that if a US court correctly rules that only the US Congress can impose tariffs, these tariffs on India will not go away, because as “sanctions”, they are a national security issue and not an economic/trade issue.

[A_Gupta]

Which of these will India annul, and when?
(Perhaps “put in abeyance” is better?)

I am thinking India must show American Indo-Pacific policy to on the verge of collapsing.

India and the United States have established a robust defense partnership that includes a series of "foundational agreements" that provide a framework for cooperation between their militaries, including with U.S. CENTCOM and the Pacific Command (which was renamed U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or USINDOPACOM). These agreements are not formal military alliances but are designed to enhance interoperability, intelligence sharing, and logistical support.


Here are the key arrangements and their significance:

Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA): Signed in 2016, this agreement allows the armed forces of both countries to use each other's military bases for logistical support, such as for resupplying, refueling, and repairing ships and aircraft. It facilitates joint exercises and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief operations. This is crucial for both CENTCOM's presence in the Middle East and USINDOPACOM's operations across the vast Indo-Pacific region, as it allows them to access Indian ports and facilities.



Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA): Signed in 2018, this pact provides a legal framework for the U.S. to transfer high-end communication security equipment to India. It allows for secure, encrypted communication between the two militaries, which is vital for real-time intelligence sharing and coordinated operations. This agreement is essential for India to utilize U.S.-origin military platforms effectively, such as the P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, and to improve interoperability during joint exercises.



Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA): Signed in 2020, BECA enables the sharing of geospatial intelligence and high-quality satellite data between India and the U.S. This provides India with access to advanced navigational aids and precise mapping data, which is critical for the accuracy of its automated systems, guided missiles, and drones. For both CENTCOM and USINDOPACOM, this agreement is significant for enhancing situational awareness and coordinating military actions.

In addition to these foundational agreements, India and the U.S. engage in several other forms of cooperation that support the goals of these commands:

Joint Military Exercises: India participates in numerous joint military exercises with the U.S. across all service branches.

Malabar: A major naval exercise that now includes the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia (the Quad nations). It focuses on high-end naval warfare and is a key component of the USINDOPACOM strategy to maintain a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

Yudh Abhyas: A joint army exercise.

Cope India: A joint air force exercise.

Tiger Triumph: A tri-service (army, navy, air force) humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise.

Information Sharing and Liaison: India has stationed a naval liaison officer at U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) in Bahrain to enhance cooperation on maritime security in the Indian Ocean and surrounding regions. The U.S. has also expressed interest in placing a liaison officer at India's Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR).

Major Defense Partner Status: In 2016, the U.S. designated India a "Major Defense Partner." This status, unique to India, facilitates the transfer of advanced and sensitive defense technology, placing India on a level similar to U.S. treaty allies. It also grants India Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1) status, which streamlines the export of a wide range of military and dual-use technologies.



The collective impact of these agreements and arrangements is to deepen the strategic partnership between India and the U.S., institutionalize cooperation, and enhance the ability of their respective forces to work together in a coordinated manner. While India maintains a policy of strategic autonomy and is not a formal U.S. ally, these arrangements provide a significant operational and intelligence framework that directly benefits U.S. CENTCOM and USINDOPACOM in achieving their regional security objectives.

[Vayutuvan]

The White House has termed as “sanctions” the additional tariffs on India.

They had been saying it for a long time. "Secondary" sanctions on customers of Russian oil.

[Rudradev]

The difference is that if a US court correctly rules that only the US Congress can impose tariffs, these tariffs on India will not go away, because as “sanctions”, they are a national security issue and not an economic/trade issue.

I don't understand this sentence.

US Congress has given Trump the authority to impose tariffs unilaterally. Tariffs, however, cannot automatically become sanctions.

Sanctions can only be imposed (1) by an act of US Congress (2) by the President, if given explicit authority/discretion by Congress to impose them in a specific case (3) by the President without specific Congressional authorization IF he declares a National Emergency first.

1 and 3 do not apply. 2 does not apply at this time because S.1241 (the Congressional Act that would give Trump authorization to impose sanctions regarding Russia/Ukraine) has not passed either house of the legislature yet.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-con ... -bill/1241

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile - can't even make this up ..Tariffs for India. hosting terrorist and fighting with sun and windmills.

India aims for a solar future -- but Trump rewrites the laws of physics with tweets and aims for a blackout, against all science and logic -- clings to the dark ages — literally.

xpost:
President Trump announces that the days of wind or farmer destroying Solar are over in the USA!!

[S_Madhukar]

Hope Trump continues like this for a few years. Then we might be able to recreate that incredible scene in Interstellar with Matthew Machaughney chasing a desi drone

[Cain Marko]

Who is the US trying to help and hurt (G2 better than G3, G4...)?

Wowo. Great point. I think both the US and China want a G2. European folded. Russia and the US will kiss and make up (at least in the short term). Brazil is ghar kee murgi. SA doesn;t have the same heft as India. That leaves only India of the BRICS to be dealt with.

This is the worst case but very possible nightmare scenario for India.

[Rudradev]

Here's the trouble with a G2. It gives too much power to the US mercantile class, business/finance/tech lobbies, etc. for Trump's comfort. This class is a major power centre within the US that arose after the cold war in parallel with the IT revolution and the rise of China. They made enormous profits off of outsourcing to China, but didn't reinvest them in American industry or R&D ...rather pumping them into Wall Street schemes like the ones that caused the 2008 financial crisis. They were the core moneybags driving the globalist elite who dominated American politics all the way from Clinton to Biden.

Trump 1.0 was ultimately sabotaged by exactly this elite. Now they appear to have influenced him to not follow his instincts on China for the moment, though they are relatively quite ok with India getting thrown under the bus as a scapegoat.

But there is a tension here. Trump may be going along with them for now. However, he's unpredictable and tough for them to manage. They would rather have an affable idiot like GW Bush, a branded product like Obama, or a senile puppet like Biden... who doesn't demand constant attention or ego-boosting and can essentially be relegated to figurehead status as required.

So, the present honeymoon is fleeting. They will seek to replace him ASAP. G2 with Trump is inherently unstable, and costs the Globalist Elite a lot more than they want to give up. Furthermore, they have to share a lot of their already-dimininshed profits with him as hafta (see the NVidia deal or the Corporate Credit Score as examples). Trump wants to be king of the billionaires, not just one of the billionaires' club working to ensure long-lasting success for their common agenda.

For China too, it is better that the Globalist Elite who dominated America from 1990 to 2024 regain their comfortable shadowy supremacy. They didn't look too hard at Beijing's corporate espionage, patent theft, currency manipulation and various other dubious practices as long as their palms were greased. Trump on the other hand cannot do anything quietly.

So this present version of G2 is not going to last, IMO. India has to wait it out and put ungli where it can.

[bala]

The current G2 like grouping is not a new development. The US deep state has 300 T wealth worldwide and is into all kinds of activity including the unsavory kind, like Epstein. The current racquet of immigration movement worldwide is another cover for money laundering, trafficking women, children and more. The disentanglement with China is a tricky thing since oodles of money were invested in China to make products at the lowest cost. Remember commy china was using its prison population initially in rip-off production centers for stealing things from the MNCs. The US Deep state was entangled with this effort too. So, the remnants of such activity remain with China, and there is a price to be paid for getting out of this arrangement. Hence the easing of tariffs by US, willing to negotiate with Emperor and so on. This will drag on for sometime. China is already deftly patched up with India to continue to dump its stuff onto Indian consumers who are the remaining still not fully tapped victims of the world. They have already fleeced consumers in US, China, EU, Russia and the rest of the world. You can say that the US Deep State is using China two fold a) get at their remaining invested wealth from China b) screw over India completely and fully.

[Vayutuvan]

... an affable idiot like GW Bush, a branded product like Obama, or a senile puppet like Biden...

Newsom (affable idiot), AOC (branded product), or KD Harris (not senile yet but low IQ induced by too much high). JD Vance is too independent, Vivek too young, somewhat of a gadfly, and has self-destructed. Nikki Haley is a possibility.

It could come down to one of {Newsom, KD Harris, AOC} vs one of {JD Vance, De Santis, Nikki Haley} in 2028.

[bala]

Russia and the US will kiss and make up (at least in the short term).

That leaves only India of the BRICS to be dealt with.

The Kiss up is a carefully calibrated move. One of the intents of the US was to bring NATO right next to Russia. The kiss up includes a military guarantee for Ukraine which is better than NATO cover. So Russia has NATO on its northern, western and eastern (across the date line, US alaska). The South West has Turkey with US nukes at incirlik. The Southern flank is the issue, hence munna Pak and Afghan are important. China and India are the other nations sitting on the south side.

Tis clear why the US is bothered with India, which is friendly to the Russians. China is being pryed away by the US a) Ukraine solved b) tariff stalled. Now we know why "Sanctions", tariffs etc are being piled upon India. The Sindoor thing has rattled the Pentagon a lot and they are gobsmacked by how India created an effective Air Defence and on top of that they took their precious Falcon 9 C&C built by GE.

Meanwhile enjoy this truism

https://x.com/IndiaSpeaksPR/status/1958228753638990197

[williams]

All good..., except tariffs are taxes on your own people. It sure denies some access to your market, but if you do not have the economic advantage to produce those goods and services domestically, you are not gaining anything economically. Trump bahadur and his minions think they can turn tariffs to reduce the economic advantage of other nations. The complexity of economic factors that make a specific nation specialize in a particular product or service cannot be capped through trade barriers. These nations are going to trade with each other and will find the best deal.

A lot of people think reserve currency for trade will keep the US insulated from economic down turn due to trade barriers. IMO US dollar is the reserve currency because of the openness of US markets. The moment you add trade barriers the value of your reserve currency is going to be lost slowly but surely. Add to that the amount of money business need to shell out to import essentials goods will really tank the economy. Those goods are not produced locally due to a economic reason. It cannot be changed overnight.

India is making the right moves.
1. Shake hands with China, Russia and Europe and make economic deals. Continue to be the leader of global south.
2. Reform your domestic economy to remove inefficiencies and make sure investments are available for efficient production.
3. Become energy independent
4. Become technology independent
5. Invest your money on local defense production
6. Find ways to trade through non-dollar medium.

And as that is being done milk whatever is possible/available as transactions with uncle Sam. We should really not care about H1B or student visas. We should focus on how to inspire those young people to study in our own universities and engage in our own products and services. Incentivize our IT giants to invest in product development. They have pretty good understanding of what global IT needs. We should come up with our own AI apps and automation products that are cheap alternatives for other global giants.

[Cain Marko]

G2 will leave India with few options and later revenue streams, at least in the near term. It could also cause a security headache if munna is used to good effect by g2. Long term g2 seems untenable since neither US nor China, esp. The latter are a status quo power. Zero sum game is their guiding principle

[A_Gupta]

US Congress has given Trump the authority to impose tariffs unilaterally.

No, Congress has not given Trump any such authority.

Trump is imposing tariffs based on his interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives gives the president sweeping powers to impose economic sanctions on persons and entities upon determining that there exists an “unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.”

There is no sane argument that Trump's tariffs since April are a response to an "unusual and extraordinary" threat of any kind. One court has already ruled so. The US has had a goods trade deficit for years, and so the threat, such as it is, is neither unusual nor extraordinary.

Tariffs, however, cannot automatically become sanctions.

Sanctions can only be imposed (1) by an act of US Congress (2) by the President, if given explicit authority/discretion by Congress to impose them in a specific case (3) by the President without specific Congressional authorization IF he declares a National Emergency first.

1 and 3 do not apply. 2 does not apply at this time because S.1241 (the Congressional Act that would give Trump authorization to impose sanctions regarding Russia/Ukraine) has not passed either house of the legislature yet.

An action against a specific country and that country alone is way more defensible in court under the IEEPA as an unusual threat. Trump has not used this action against China, Turkey or the EU, but only against India, with the public statements implying that India is profiteering while China is merely fulfilling its basic human needs.

Of course, any lower court ruling against Trump will find its judgment ignored, or its judgment swept aside by Trump's friends in the Supreme Court. So in that sense, tariffs or sanctions is a moot point.

[uddu]

Mearsheimer: Trump's Sanctions on India Risk Strengthening Ties with Russia and China | Brass Tacks

Professor John Mearsheimer discusses the complexities of achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the impossibility of territorial concessions and security guarantees. He also critiques Trump's sanctions on India, suggesting they may push India closer to Russia and China, undermining U.S. interests.