India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[nandakumar]

What prevents countries from off loading their dollar reserves or converting to gold.

The supply of freshly minted gold is limited. Any shift from US Treasury instruments to gold would only push up the price gold. At what point do we say, the valuation of gold is now into 'bubble' territory?

[Dilbu]

Article by Kenneth I. Juster in Council on Foreign Relations

He expects India to cut oil imports from Russia in favour of US oil, invest more in the US, and meet certain American trade demands, possibly prompting Trump to attend the Quad summit. However, the author seems unaware of the level of distrust in India. Oil imports from Russia have actually increased and the Quad meeting in New Delhi will likely be cancelled. The opportunity to repair relations may already have passed.
Will Trump’s India Tariffs Affect a Critical U.S. Partnership?

Ultimately, the high tariff rates on India appear to me to be part of a negotiation. This is a similar tactic to what the president has used in other deals, including the trade agreements with Japan and the European Union. Nonetheless, Trump’s rhetoric and public threats could well make it more difficult domestically for Modi to take the desired measures.

I do not believe that Trump approaches these trade issues as part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy, or as inconsistent with U.S. and Indian joint strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. It would therefore be a mistake—and certainly premature—for the government of India to view these tariffs as fundamentally undercutting the strategic partnership that the two countries have developed over the last twenty-five years. I believe the president still has a strong interest in the U.S.-India partnership and enjoys his good relationship with Modi. But he also favors the use of tariffs to try to rebalance the economic relationship and, if he imposes the additional tariff, to help close another deal—one between Russia and Ukraine—for an end to hostilities.

The reaction in India has been multifaceted. Initially, because the government of India felt the parties were close to announcing a trade deal, the reaction was one of surprise that there were additional issues to address. When the level of rhetoric from the White House increased by labeling India’s tariffs “obnoxious” and calling the Indian economy “dead,” there was a sense of indignation among Indian commentators. This was exacerbated by the president’s repeated statement that he had brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which the Indians have publicly disputed (thereby irritating Trump in the process).

More recently, when the president announced the threatened imposition of a 25 percent additional tariff on August 27, India’s Ministry of External Affairs called this action “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” and asserted that India “will take all necessary steps to protect its national interests.” Modi also vowed not to compromise the welfare of India’s farmers, dairy sector, or fishermen, and stated that he is personally ready “to pay a heavy price for it.” Regrettably, respected voices in India are now questioning the value of their strategic partnership with the United States.

Given the vibrant political discourse in India, Modi needed to respond publicly and firmly to the new tariffs. But he should also be careful not to paint himself into a corner and to remain open to discussing ways to resolve the current trade dispute. I understand that the two leaders are trying to arrange a meeting in the United States in late September, when both plan to attend the UN General Assembly.

Beyond these economic issues, the failure to conclude a deal could cause spillover collateral damage to other aspects of the bilateral relationship, including in defense and technology cooperation. The weakening of the U.S.-India relationship would inevitably be of strategic benefit to China—and that is not in the interest of either the United States or India. Both Washington and New Delhi should recognize that their bilateral relationship is more significant and impactful than any arrangement either of them can work out with China, which remains a strategic challenge for both countries.

While an early resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would eliminate any tariff on Russian oil imports, this protracted conflict is unlikely to be settled soon. Accordingly, while it would probably be impractical for the Indians to terminate all oil imports from Russia, they may wish to quietly lower their level of Russian oil imports and substitute them with more energy imports from the United States. Some reports indicate that this process could already be starting. If so, that would enable New Delhi to request Washington to delay any implementation of the threatened tariff. And if Trump and Modi can resolve outstanding trade issues when they meet in late September, perhaps the United States will agree to drop the extra 25 percent tariff altogether, even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not been resolved.

Regarding the 25 percent reciprocal tariff, Trump’s imposition of this is, in my mind, a negotiating tactic rather than a desire to jettison the U.S.-India strategic partnership. Under these circumstances, New Delhi should avoid the temptation to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, which would likely be counterproductive. Fortunately, I see no evidence that India is planning to take such action. However exasperated the Indian government may be by recent events, it should try to be as creative as possible in presenting further ideas for discussion with its U.S. counterparts.

Perhaps the Indians can carefully review other U.S. trade deals to see if there are elements that they could borrow to enhance what they have already put on the table. This could include pledges of further investment by Indian companies in the United States, the allowance of duty-free access for certain agricultural items such as cotton and blueberries, and the acceptance of some other items under limited quotas. I also recall during Trump’s first term that the two countries had outlined a proposal for limited U.S. dairy imports. Perhaps that could be resurrected.

Based on my experience, Modi is an extremely skillful interlocutor and is well suited to a high-stakes meeting with Trump. The prime minister would likely want to emphasize the strategic importance of the bilateral relationship and his appreciation for the good rapport between the two leaders over time. While Modi should be prepared to provide ideas on how to sweeten India’s offers on trade, procurements, and investments, he could also reference his own constraints as the head of a democratic government and the areas where he will need some U.S. understanding and flexibility.

Hopefully, the two leaders can then reach an agreement, with a final reciprocal tariff rate conceivably at 15 percent but in no event greater than 20 percent. Such a resolution would also pave the way for a visit by Trump to New Delhi later in the year for the Quad summit.

[A_Gupta]

> Slowly but surely both Biden and Trump are inadvertently destroying American consumer spirit.

Surely Biden would be in the past tense?

[A_Gupta]

Supposedly the US has put 64% tariff on Indian solar panels.

[saip]

> Slowly but surely both Biden and Trump are inadvertently destroying American consumer spirit.

Surely Biden would be in the past tense?

One has allegedly dementia but the other is definitely DEMENTED.

[Deans]

Slowly but surely both Biden and Trump are inadvertently destroying American consumer spirit. Problem is when that spirit declines the surplus capacities that is built by businesses to cater to that consumerism is going to decline. China is suffering right now due to that but at some point that is going to hurt American economy. Until then these Tariff games will look like a good play for the current Admin.

The Chinese and Russians can stay poor longer than the American voter.
Whatever grouse the Chinese may have against the party an Xi, they will come together against what they believe is US imperialism.
Similarly, NATOs actions against Russia have revived the spirit of WW2. Russians will make the sacrifices necessary to see this war to the end.

[gakakkad]

I am increasingly beginning to think tharki Santra is either compromised by CCP or they have some bad kompromat on him .

[Jay]

Something has unraveled beyond redemption between the US and India in the last few months. I think we are in the early days of an attempted “regime change” in India. This might not have been a planned course of action, but rather a happenstance that anti-India forces have stumbled upon—and now they are positioning their pieces to make a move.

Forget about Trump’s tantrums for a moment—no one is surprised by that—but I have never seen India’s MOE officials so lacking in answers. Maybe they are still in shock from the backstabbing by this Trump administration. I have also never seen our Foreign Minister use phrases like “no logic” or “this is unfair” while pleading the case to an audience that seems hell-bent on causing damage. For crying out loud, even the Chinese have started advising us on how to deal with Trump.

I do have confidence in this team, but the NaMo government needs to open its eyes and start recognizing that the problems created by these foreign forces are essentially the same as those created by the local Congress-Rahul gang. There seems to be a strong synergy between what the Indian opposition is saying and the Trump administration’s attacks, which are using those very same lines.

We went as far as we could with Trump until now, but the calculus has changed—and we have to adapt. We need to focus inward and do so ruthlessly if we want to come out ahead. We need to recognize that the West and other anti-India forces are not just targeting Indian influence, but Indian capital as well. Perhaps they have realized that this is the right time to spread their tentacles deeper into the Indian capitalist class to gain more control over India. That is why I believe there is so much chatter about Adani, Ambani, and other Indian billionaires. Control them, and you can control the Indian electorate to a certain extent.

We need to do what China did—protect our interests by protecting our capitalist leaders.

[Dilbu]

Modi sarkar appears to be hoping for a Ukraine deal that would end current tensions. Although India has protested against the tariffs it has not directly targeted Trump or the US govt, which has been more assertive and aggressive in its responses. If it becomes clear that Putin will not make a deal soon, GOI may adopt a more aggressive stance both internationally and domestically, as they don't have much to lose then if a regime change attempt is coming.

[Amber G.]

This is waking up
farmers here (in Ohio)!. Remember the whole saga of F-16 and Soybeans to Pak.. Now

Hitting Trump where it hurts, China's soybean shift to Brazil strains US farmers

लाहौल विला कुव्वत - After Russia and China rolled out the red carpet for Indian goods, another Brics nation, Brazil is now replacing the US as Beijing’s main soybean supplier..

[chanakyaa]

I am increasingly beginning to think tharki Santra is either compromised by CCP or they have some bad kompromat on him .

"tharki Santra" funny

One a serious note, looking purely from economic/financial perspective, approx. 7-10% of revenue for the S&P 500 companies comes from China. And, then there is higher sales of American agri/protein products, which has heavy lobby, to China compared to India. I feel like these factors drive the favoritism towards China more than anything else (and the controversial preference for G2). But this is just me interpreting based on my professional training as a finance person, and could be biased as in "If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail", but there is always a possibility b'cas Chinese have lot of moolah to throw to compromise tharki santra or anyone on sale.

[m_saini]

..One a serious note, looking purely from economic/financial perspective, approx. 7-10% of revenue for the S&P 500 companies comes from China. And, then there is higher sales of American agri/protein products, which has heavy lobby, to China compared to India. I feel like these factors drive the favoritism towards China more than anything else, but there is always a possibility b'cas Chinese have lot of moolah to throw to compromise tharki santra or anyone on sale.

China being 7-10% of S&P still doesn't explain the favouritism towards pakis. why bother pleasing pakis if you've already made deals with chinese? The Iran angle also doesn't make sense, there are no immediate tensions with Iranians and with Kuwait and Saudis there, the US doesn't "need' pakis (there's no ground invasion)

One "logical" explanation is Modi didn't bend the knee and neither do we have leverage like Chinese. But if knee/leverage is what it takes then perhaps chinese are the better option for a partnership.

[A_Gupta]

Supposedly there is a lot of social media chatter about how Mike’s Ambani misled PM Modi.

E.g.,
https://youtu.be/XX3cTLqVWiQ?si=w-GSrTkcFEw-6q1Z

Discover the shocking truth behind the growing rift between Narendra Modi and Mukesh Ambani. Once seen as powerful allies, their relationship is now facing cracks — and many believe America’s hidden role has fueled this betrayal. Did the U.S. play a silent game to break the Modi–Ambani bond? What really happened behind the scenes?

In this video, we uncover:
The reasons behind the Modi–Ambani fallout
How American influence may have triggered the split
The impact of this rift on Indian politics and business
The untold story of betrayal and power play

Stay tuned till the end for the complete breakdown of this political-business drama that’s shaking India!

[Vayutuvan]

I am increasingly beginning to think tharki Santra is either compromised by CCP or they have some bad kompromat on him .

There is a possibility that what he was accused of doing in "the Russia Dossier" was done in China and CCCP/Xi has the goods on him. There is also dead silence on both attempts during 2024 on POTUS. @chetak ji pointed that out already.

[Vayutuvan]

why bother pleasing pakis if you've already made deals with chinese?

To wean Pakis away from China, perhaps?

[gakakkad]

I think there are several things that POTUS did that would immediately benefit the Chinese .

1) the EV policy of actually making you pay more tax if you own EV will decimate the EV and battery industry . Advantage China .

2) resuming export of ai chips and other tech that biden cancelled .

3) export control loopholes like in section 232 will allow Chinese to export metals but make it less competitive for others.

4) the whole thing with India will end up benefiting China ultimately.

5) wilful destruction of high end biotech and quiting who will benefit China.

I am sure there are many more we haven't figured out but worth exploring .

[gakakkad]

why bother pleasing pakis if you've already made deals with chinese?

To wean Pakis away from China, perhaps?

Porkis aren't that important to figure that prominently in such equations .. they are barely the c you end after an indefinite integral . C with a capital chut.

[drnayar]

Supposedly there is a lot of social media chatter about how Mike’s Ambani misled PM Modi.

E.g.,
https://youtu.be/XX3cTLqVWiQ?si=w-GSrTkcFEw-6q1Z

Discover the shocking truth behind the growing rift between Narendra Modi and Mukesh Ambani. Once seen as powerful allies, their relationship is now facing cracks — and many believe America’s hidden role has fueled this betrayal. Did the U.S. play a silent game to break the Modi–Ambani bond? What really happened behind the scenes?

In this video, we uncover:
The reasons behind the Modi–Ambani fallout
How American influence may have triggered the split
The impact of this rift on Indian politics and business
The untold story of betrayal and power play

Stay tuned till the end for the complete breakdown of this political-business drama that’s shaking India!

isn't this pushing the narrative of sowing doubt deceit and confusion ? .. i am seeing a lot on this including this agenda

[m_saini]

To wean Pakis away from China, perhaps?

At the cost of pushing India towards Chinese? And what benefits does weaning away Pakis provide?

Pakis will finger India anyway (through Chinese) and unkil is no longer involved in Afghan either. so what's the utility in weaning away Pakis?

[A_Gupta]

isn't this pushing the narrative of sowing doubt deceit and confusion ? .. i am seeing a lot on this including this agenda

Likely. But after ignoring it for a while, and not seeing it die down, thought y’all should no about it.

[S_Madhukar]

So if Goldfish is compromised and unloading his bile on us then what does that say about R and C who are now in comfortable positions? That’s the classic small guy getting beaten while the big 3 confabulate. They may make sympathetic noises but we did not buy influence while they did.

[Added later] too early to say but this kick from US and us warming up a bit to Lizards might also be part of G2 ? I am hearing about TikTok but govt should look into 100 other items before exposing ourselves again to narratives

[Amber G.]

He was once Trump’s National Security Advisor..(and considered for Secretary of State in 2016 transition, but Trump reportedly disliked his mustache and instead chose Rex Tillerson)..but now Trump says:

I'm not a fan of John Bolton. He's a real sort of lowlife... I know nothing about it. I just saw it this morning...:

- Donald Trump on the raid on Boltan house. (Boton's house was raided after he criticized Trump on his ruining relations with India .) ..

BTW after taffifs which made no sense, this is what he ( Trumps own former NSA) said..

I want Indians to understand that what is happening at the top level with Trump isn't what the rest of America thinks. Unfortunately, Trump keeps doing this kind of thing. It's one reason why I think he's not fit to be President,'

<Worth watching the video clip

[Amber G.]

Also sharing: Atul Keshap (Chargé d’Affaires , Acting U.S. Ambassador, to India -in past and now President @USIBC)..

“US and India need to talk to each other in private to resolve their differences,”

"Washington and Delhi have proven they can have difficult conversations that address problems..”

In Newsweek: Trump's Tariffs Shock India, With New Delhi Weighing Its Options

[KL Dubey]

> Slowly but surely both Biden and Trump are inadvertently destroying American consumer spirit.

Surely Biden would be in the past tense?

One has allegedly dementia but the other is definitely DEMENTED.

They are both old men. The major/"pain in the ass" issues (pun intended) - Bhaidanwa has prostate cancer. Trump sh!ts himself in his diaper all day and night. Other things: heart disease, cognitive impairment (I would not go so far as dementia yet).

[Vayutuvan]

Let us not forget that John Bolton was and probably still is an NPA. I m not unhappy about him getting some tender love from the FBI.

[Rudradev]

Supposedly there is a lot of social media chatter about how Mike’s Ambani misled PM Modi.

E.g.,
https://youtu.be/XX3cTLqVWiQ?si=w-GSrTkcFEw-6q1Z

Discover the shocking truth behind the growing rift between Narendra Modi and Mukesh Ambani. Once seen as powerful allies, their relationship is now facing cracks — and many believe America’s hidden role has fueled this betrayal. Did the U.S. play a silent game to break the Modi–Ambani bond? What really happened behind the scenes?

In this video, we uncover:
The reasons behind the Modi–Ambani fallout
How American influence may have triggered the split
The impact of this rift on Indian politics and business
The untold story of betrayal and power play

Stay tuned till the end for the complete breakdown of this political-business drama that’s shaking India!

I would take careful note of the source you've cited for this particular chatter.

Over the last few years, there has been a proliferation of youtube channels supposedly targeted at aspirants in competitive examinations in India— IAS, UPSC, SSCs, but also B-school and similar entrance tests where there is an interview component and candidates are expected to demonstrate their general knowledge of national and world affairs.

These channels draw huge numbers of subscribed viewers hoping to secure a competitive edge by absorbing video digests of historical & current-affairs information. Much like an earlier generation of Indian youth read the magazine "Competition Success Review".

The content creators behind these channels know one thing for sure— each year, 90% or more of their audience will NOT make it through the selection process (just the reality of Indian exams). They will likely be frustrated and cynical about "the system", especially the Indian economy and government. Many will remain subscribers of these channels, out of habit or because they hope to keep trying.

In effect, they become a lakhs-strong viewer base of disaffected (and at least basically educated) young people who are highly susceptible to agenda-driven propaganda. A potential base that grows alongside each "mentorship/tutoring" channel they subscribe to, year upon year... and that comes to see the hosts of these channels as trusted and reliable "teachers".

See where this is going? A host of one such youtube channel, known as Khan Sir, tipped his hand recently by blatantly emitting loads of overtly anti-Modi content (which embroiled him in controversy and cost him at least some of his credibility). But many others are a lot more subtle.

[A_Gupta]

Trump ‘very angry’ at Ukraine hitting Russian pipeline feeding Orbán
Hungary’s leader complained to the U.S. president following a Ukrainian drone strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline.

——
The pipeline carries oil from Russia. Why isn’t Trump putting tariffs on Hungary? Why should he be displeased that the economic pressure on Russia is increased, this directly, instead of indirectly by sanctions on India?

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... ine-drone/

——
Why is Trump not angry at the Russian attack on an American-owned business in Ukraine? Instead earlier today he was gushing over friend Putin and how he wants to attend FIFA.

[krithivas]

Trump Nominates Personnel Aide Sergio Gor as Ambassador to India
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 462990.cms


I have not heard this name supposedly a "close" aide of Pres. Trump.

[Mort Walker]

He's a Russian Jew born in Tashkent in 1986. According to Wikipedia, Sergey Gorokhovsky was born on November 30, 1986, in Tashkent, Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic, Soviet Union. The Gorokhovskys moved to Malta by 1994, when his mother established a business and registered as an Israeli national.

Gor being Jewish doesn't mean much considering Trump's top aide Stephen Miller is also Jewish, yet everyone knows his views.

[Vayutuvan]

He's a Russian Jew born in Tashkent in 1986. According to Wikipedia, Sergey Gorokhovsky was born on November 30, 1986, in Tashkent, Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic, Soviet Union. The Gorokhovskys moved to Malta by 1994, when his mother established a business and registered as an Israeli national.

He is a lightweight. A nobody. MAGA trumper. Worse than "Punjabi dancing" ex-mayor of LA.

[Mort Walker]

^^^Unfortunately almost all of the MAGA Trumpers are lightweight. Don't expect much if any changes.

[gakakkad]

in the trump world sergio gor is important. he is rumored to have played a role in Musk ouster and was certainly involved in Jared issacman being ousted from nasa.
is otherwise inexperienced for the role just as much of his cabinet is.

it'll be interesting. One thing i can tell is that Trump considered the appointment important enough, in the magaverse this dude is high up. even though he is an effing nobody overall. he is considered to be abrasive and estreme trump chamcha. whether his mission is to mend ties or make them worse ,time will tell. i am concerned about the chatter of regime change. if that was the plan trump would consider this dude appropriate for it.

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/06/trump- ... house-aide

Why it matters: Trump acknowledged Thursday that canceling Jared Isaacman's NASA nomination had "upset" Musk, who's close to Isaacman. It was a factor, among many, that led to Thursday's shocking falling out between the president and his one-time "First Buddy," the world's richest person.

Musk spent the afternoon flaming Trump on X. It left presidential advisers stunned — and some of them angry at Gor, whose tense relationship with Musk was a backdrop to the controversy.

Senate Republicans also blamed Gor for helping undermine the NASA nomination to settle a score with Musk, who had been critical of Gor's management of the White House personnel office.
Gor declined to comment. But one senior White House official called Axios on Gor's behalf to praise his "brilliance, hard work and dedication."
Zoom in: Gor is one of the most influential Trump advisers in the White House, and co-founded Winning Team Publishing with Donald Trump Jr. The imprint publishes books by Trump and his allies, and put much-needed cash in Trump's pocket during his isolation after the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

Gor, a frequent presence at Mar-a-Lago, has a close relationship with former Marvel executive Ike Perlmutter, one of Trump's closest friends and a major donor.
Gor was a top fundraising official on Trump's 2020 re-election campaign, and founded a pro-Trump super PAC during the 2024 campaign that spent nearly $72 million.
Zoom out: As the man in charge of vetting political appointees, Gor implemented loyalty tests to make sure new hires support Trump's agenda wholeheartedly — and that they haven't given to Democrats.

Of all of Trump's picks, Isaacman — a wealthy entrepreneur — stood out for having contributed to Democrats during the last election cycle. Trump cited that Saturday when he withdrew Isaacman's nomination.
Trump, however, had been made aware of Isaacman's donations months ago and said nothing.
Now, the nation's space agency won't have a chief confirmed by the Senate for at least nine months, officials say.
Flashback: Musk and Gor had a tense relationship that surfaced in March during a heated Cabinet meeting in which Musk got into an argument with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, The New York Times reported at the time.

Gor wasn't mentioned in the Times story, a conspicuous absence in the eyes of two senior administration officials who say Gor resented Musk's involvement in personnel matters.
"Sergio let it be known he didn't like Musk's attitude ... and he didn't like getting called out [by Musk] in front of the Cabinet," said one White House official who attended the meeting.
The intrigue: In a Wednesday discussion on the "All-In Podcast," Isaacman said he believes his fate was linked to Musk's deteriorating standing in the White House and "an influential adviser coming in and saying [to Trump]: 'Look, here's the facts and I think we should kill this guy.'''

"It's crazy," a Trump adviser involved in the NASA director process said. "Isaacman is eminently qualified. He's a billionaire. He has been to space. He was a Democrat — exactly the type of voter we want. And now look at it."

[Jay]

One has allegedly dementia but the other is definitely DEMENTED.

They are both old men. The major/"pain in the ass" issues (pun intended) - Bhaidanwa has prostate cancer. Trump sh!ts himself in his diaper all day and night. Other things: heart disease, cognitive impairment (I would not go so far as dementia yet).

Point is, Biden is in charge of nothing at this point and in fact, since his election loss 10 months ago, he has almost completely withdrawn from public life. To my knowledge his one and only public event was about "disability advocates". Not sure how he is relevant with what is going on with respect to pedo trumps hostility to India.

[uddu]

Trump Advisor Attacks India, Calls It Russian "Laundromat" | Vantage With Palki Sharma

Donald Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro, accused India of "perpetuating" the war in Ukraine and called New Delhi a "laundromat" for Russian oil. Navarro had earlier slammed India as the "Maharaja of tariffs". Why are Trump's trade officials wading into war and diplomacy?

[Amber G.]

Sergio from US leadership is nominated as US ambassador to India byTrump

[drnayar]

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1935531784978186276


He’s a snake

Sergio Gor. Why did Elon Musk call him ‘a snake’

[eklavya]

^^^^
There was some issue with the appointment of the head of NASA. Musk wanted his own guy. This fellow had other ideas. See:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/why-elo ... ke-9143917

More seriously. What do we do about Trump?

A few thoughts:

* This ambassador appears to be personally close to Trump and his sons. This is good. Trump ignores advice from professional diplomats and competent people anyway. He only listens to those he trusts completely. And he only trusts those people who will support him even when he is completely in the wrong. In other words, the only thing that counts is loyalty. The fact that Sergio Gor could get Musk overruled, shows he is trusted. It is good to have an Ambassador in New Delhi who can get through to the President and his family.

* There is no grand strategy at play. All this talk of G2, regime change, etc. is a total distraction. There are plenty of fools around Trump (e.g. Navarro) who can be influenced to say something, who are making it up as they go along. The only thing that counts is Trump’s state of mind, and making him feel good about himself. Also his wallet.

* Trump himself is displaying signs of the “old fool” phenomena. He is “getting played” by just about everybody. There is enough evidence of what works. Personal flattery and giving him “credit” appear to be key. Diplomats and negotiators in the traditional mould are not effective. He doesn’t understand what they say and he simply does not care. We are dealing with a vain petulant egotistical person whose grip on reality is slipping (has probably slipped). Whatever we want out of his office, we have to deal with the character we have, not the character we traditionally associate with a POTUS.

* The people around Trump are also essentially looking to manipulate and exploit him. He is manipulable and he is exploitable (give him something he wants, he will give you something you want). Some of the agendas being pursued are very dangerous.

* Article II of the constitution is being interpreted in a way to hugely expand the powers of his Presidency. Tariffs, for example, are not traditionally in the President’s powers (this is not even an Article II issue). This will remain the case at a minimum until the Nov 2026 midterms. If Congress flips to the Democrats, or if he loses at least one of the chambers, his powers may/will be brought back to normality. These are a long way away. He can do a lot of damage in this period. He may also win the midterms. So, we need to plan on the basis that this imperial Presidency with a crazy President is our base case. There is no need to feel “betrayed” by this person. He is hardly capable of thinking even simple things through.

* While we are stuck in this “mad king” mode of Presidency, we need to figure out a way to get Trump working for India. It really can’t be that difficult. We do not need to compromise on agricultural and dairy trade, or on non involvement of third parties in Indo-Pak affairs. We can find something else that gets his fancy. This is what South Block needs to figure out.

[ShauryaT]

^There is one more thing Trump understands and grudgingly respects. Power. Not just having it but ability to exercise it. Russia and China responses to Trump actions are tell tales.

[eklavya]

^^^
You are still thinking too high brow. Need to think lower. Imagine if Robert Vadra became PM, with no party, parliament or courts to restrain him. Imagine now someone with morals, education and intelligence worse than Vadra. This is the situation. IFS types will be out of their comfort zone.

[Mort Walker]

From Kanwal Sibal on X:

It’s the first time that a US ambassador to India is also a Special Envoy for South and Central Asian affairs.
This means he will have a much wider mandate covering the jurisdiction of the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs in the State Dept.
Ipso facto he will be supervising India’s relationship within this region. With Pakistan and our other neighbours.
This means he will be consulting and coordinating with other US ambassadors in the region to develop a more integrated approach.
This is a new form of “ hyphenating” India and Pakistan again, amongst other things.
This Special Envoy mandate also blurs the focus on the Indo-Pacific dimension of US- India ties.
The intention behind this double nomination is problematic.
A version of Holbrook’s mandate as Special Envoy for India and Pakistan which we rejected.
This time the same approach is being pursued by giving the Ambassador himself a double role to which we can’t object.
The responsibility of a US ambassador to a huge country like India with many US Consulates and massive amount of bilateral work ( the US embassy in India is amongst its biggest in the world) is such that this kind of “ concurrent accreditation” is not normal.
Senate confirmation hearings on his nomination may bring some clarity about the meaning of his mandate.

Vikram Sood responded:

Kind of American Viceroy for countries bordering or close to China. Prevent India from getting too close to China and Russia. Use Pakistan if this happens. Or use it as an ally against Iran. Use Afghanistan against Iran and for second ingress Central Asia bordering China. There will be allurements for India and sanctions too, if we do not behave. Just speculating about what might happen.