India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Mort Walker]

In 2009 Holbrook was formally rejected using the Vienna Convention. India may say Gor can be ambassador to India, but India does not recognize his Special Envoy status.

[A_Gupta]

It is easy enough, but abhorrent - e.g., India nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, say for IMEC or I2U2, if not for Op Sindoor cessation of hostilities.

Or induce some of the Indian billionaires to do desh seva and sink some of their money in some of Trump family enterprises.

[Rudradev]

Sergio Gor is a pure Chump Chaploos whose sole qualification for any role in the Chump administration is vetting other people for sufficient loyalty to Chump.

Chump nominated him because Chump is feeling insecure. In his own Pentagon, State Dept, & Commerce Dept (let alone corporate America), dealings with Indian govt & business entities have proceeded almost as usual despite his rants. Joint military exercises will go ahead, Apple will make even more phones in India, the GE Tejas engine deal is still under way, etc.

This makes Chump and his Chaploos crew suspicious of the abundant org-to-org & person-to-person connections that keep US-India relations resilient despite all the voluble Pak-pasandi that Chump himself is spewing. It seems to Chump that it is easier for all parties to ignore him and continue with the relationship in spite of his tantrums— and no camera-addicted loudmouth can stomach such an obvious lack of control.

That's why he has appointed an unter-flunky like Gor, who reports only to him & his family, as Ambassador.

I would like to see Modi Sarkar publicly spit on Gor (direct personal proxy of Chump that he is known to be) and instead invite say, Elon Musk for a visit with the appearance of full state honors— red carpet reception, massive coverage, meetings with everyone from the PM down.

India should show the US establishment it is fine continuing to do business with them, but refuses to take Chump seriously.

[Mort Walker]

The rumor is that Gor's temporary national security clearance expired in July 2025, but he's a Trump loyalist. Gor's SF-86 (National Security Standard Form 86) was rejected. Most of the time these are rejected due to financial irregularities or incomplete profile. The Senate hearings will be most interesting.

[Mort Walker]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/indi ... 250823.htm
India suspends postal services to US amid new customs rules
Hemant Waje, August 23, 2025
Postal services to the United States have been temporarily suspended, as US-bound air carriers have denied carrying shipments due to a lack of clarity in new norms issued by the American customs department, the Ministry of Communications said on Saturday.
However, services will continue for letters, documents and gift items worth up to USD 100.
Under an executive order issued by the US administration on July 30, 2025, goods valued at over USD 100 will be subject to customs duties in America with effect from August 29 onwards.
According to the order, transport carriers delivering shipments through the international postal network, or other "qualified parties" approved by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), are required to collect and remit duties on postal shipments.
"While CBP issued certain guidelines on 15th August, 2025, several critical processes relating to the designation of 'qualified parties' and mechanisms for duty collection and remittance remain undefined.
"Consequently, US-bound air carriers have expressed their inability to accept postal consignments after 25th August, 2025, citing lack of operational and technical readiness," a statement from the ministry said.
......
Gautam

[Rudradev]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

Yes. Repeat with other industries and sectors too. Reward the players Trump has fallen out with. Bheda.

[skumar]

Dr S Jaishankar spoke on Operation Sindoor at the ET World Leaders Forum 2025 and lays out exactly what transpired. Calls were made and received as happens during every conflict which cannot be construed as mediation but the issue was resolved on the battlefield.

What he says is validated by events. It is clear that Trump lied during his Middle East visit when he made those bombastic claims about stopping the war by threatening trade.

MEA could have said that India would never compromise its national security over trade and actually considers it an affront to see that trade was mentioned in that context. The bridges have been burnt by Trump anyway.

I hate to see the MEA establishment constantly defending our decision to buy Russian oil by saying why us, why not China, why not Europe? It is time to grow up and stop whining. Let our actions speak for themselves.

We cannot legitimize diktats by other countries by saying you asked us earlier to buy oil and stabilize oil prices, what changes now etc? By saying that, we are saying we are legitimizing their diktats.

There are internationally recognized UN sanctions on Iran and countries have to follow the "rules" as they stand. There are no international sanctions on Russia because of its veto.

That there are no international sanctions on Russia is not India's fault even if India does not support the Russian invasion. it is the "global order" created by the winners of WW2 that gives veto powers to certain countries and abjures crimes by these countries. Every P5 country has shielded itself or its friends by using its veto powers.

[Vayutuvan]

so what's the utility in weaning away Pakis?

Hmm. Good question. There must be something else then. Something happened before/during/after Op Sindoor.

[Vayutuvan]

^^^Unfortunately almost all of the MAGA Trumpers are lightweight. Don't expect much if any changes.

Ms. Asha Jadeja Motwani posted on X eulogizing Gor. India should never trust her again ever, IMHO.

See below.

[Amber G.]

I am a foreign minister. I dont comment on Ambassidorial appointments of other countries, that too in public,"

-s EAM Dr Jaishankar on Trump nomination of new US Ambassidor to India

[Vayutuvan]

It is easy enough, but abhorrent - e.g., India nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, say for IMEC or I2U2, if not for Op Sindoor cessation of hostilities.
Or induce some of the Indian billionaires to do desh seva and sink some of their money in some of Trump family enterprises.

Bingo. Very chankyan way of taming the shrew. I apologize for the mixed metaphor though.

[Vayutuvan]

^^^Unfortunately almost all of the MAGA Trumpers are lightweight. Don't expect much if any changes.

Ms. Asha Jadeja Motwani posted on X eulogizing Gor. India should never trust her again ever, IMHO.

See below.

I take that back because I am being too simplistic and wanting to show that my morals are better than hers.

She had been consistent throughout. Her logic is probably something like cultivate not only Trump but his coterie as well. I would do the same if I and my friends in tIE cumulative have invested 100s of millions of USD in Indian startup ecosystem.

What India can do is to play daana, saama, and bheda all at once.

daana - Let suvarnakapi build his towers and grease the process of permissions (within reason, ofc)
saama - Say we will nominate him for a Nobel if he is able to get a Russia-Ukraine deal. If Ukraine is sacrificed, it is no skin off Indians' nodes.
bheda - 0% tax on Tesla and few others who have fallen out with Trump

[skumar]

Dr. Brahma Chellaney
https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1959129654318543066
Trump waited over seven months — until U.S.-India ties had sunk to a new low — to name an ambassador to India. By doubling the nominee’s role as special envoy for South and Central Asia, Washington signals a throwback to the Cold War era that bracketed India with Pakistan. America weakens its own hand by reducing India from a global partner to a South Asian player.

[Cain Marko]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

This could be done in the guise that India is really pushing hard to meet climate pledge goals and the desire to be less reliant on fossil fuels. This should come from someone slightly lower on the totem pole but it will be read as a veiled threat. Make similar remarks about dedollarization and his India is the only one who stands in the way of this happening in the brics. I think people will get the message.

[skumar]

The frequency of Trump's assertions regarding the India Pak conflict are indirectly proportional to his assessment of the chances of helping to resolve the Russia Ukraine war where his contributions are at least acknowledged by both parties.

He is shooting for the big deal but wants to have a smaller deal all nicely decked up to look big in case the bigger one does not come through.

[Amber G.]

Trump’s administration’s war against basic science—spanning medicine, the environment, and even common sense—has become increasingly dangerous. From firing renowned nuclear experts and intelligence officers who questioned his claims about Iran, to discarding decades of vaccine science, dismissing top space researchers, and sidelining data scientists for producing statistics he didn’t like, the list goes on ..

Here is another item -- *very* concerning about top scientists here is US.. it wrote about this in Math dagha but very relevant here.

Terence Tao – widely regarded as the most respected mathematician of our time – is suddenly at the center of U.S. politics.

Tao is a Fields Medalist (often called the Nobel Prize of math). He won a medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad at just 10 years old, becoming one of the youngest medalists in history.

Beyond his research, Tao has been celebrated for his mentorship and accessibility: his blog makes cutting-edge mathematics approachable, and his influence spans across number theory, PDEs, harmonic analysis, combinatorics, algebra, geometry, and more.


He is also a member of the U.S. President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), underscoring the respect he commands across academia and government.

In short - by any account, one of the most famous mathematician in the world today.

Normally, Tao is not politically outspoken. But he is now speaking out after the Trump administration’s abrupt suspension of federal science funding.

In his own op-ed (Home of the Brave, Aug 18, 2025), Tao revealed that his NSF grant was suddenly suspended, leaving him without resources to support graduate students or even receive his deferred summer salary. The Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics (IPAM) at UCLA, which he helps lead, also lost its newly approved five-year extension:


In an interview with The Bulwark (Aug 6, 2025), Tao admitted the personal toll:

“

A year ago I was absolutely sure I would be staying at UCLA for the foreseeable future. But now that there are existential risks . . . I cannot make any long-term predictions.

”

Link He’s the ‘Mozart’ of Math and Trump Killed His Funding

This isn’t just about one mathematician. It’s about whether the U.S. will continue to sustain the scientific ecosystem that made it a global leader—or whether political whims will drive top researchers elsewhere.

For someone like Tao, usually above the political fray, to speak this bluntly tells you just how dire the situation is.

[skumar]

The frequency of Trump's assertions regarding the India Pak conflict are inversely proportional to his assessment of the chances of helping to resolve the Russia Ukraine war where his contributions are at least acknowledged by both parties.

He is shooting for the big deal but wants to have a smaller deal all nicely decked up to look big in case the bigger one does not come through.

[Amber G.]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

For India, in addition to avoiding being dragged into someone else’s domestic politics, the whole idea is frankly bizarre. Elevating Musk in this way would be stupid — he’s as much (if not more than Trump) of a con-man as he is a businessman, and certainly not the technical genius people imagine (I know this firsthand). I’d almost guarantee that Piyush Goyal is too smart to fall for such theatrics. It would be about as sensible as inviting Imran Khan to Delhi just because he has a quarrel with Munir."

[KL Dubey]

^^^
You are still thinking too high brow. Need to think lower. Imagine if Robert Vadra became PM, with no party, parliament or courts to restrain him. Imagine now someone with morals, education and intelligence worse than Vadra. This is the situation. IFS types will be out of their comfort zone.

"Ekalavyan" - Good post earlier.

I also do not see the recent events as any "grand strategy", but rather as incompetence and bravado based on a yearning for the 1870-1910 era ("gilded age"). That yearning is even manifested in the literal gilding of the white house recently and building of ballrooms. The current world is totally different and these tactics will not work.

Pradeep Singh got it right in my opinion: Trump fears Modi and the return of Bharat. I believe operation Sindoor was a shell-shock for many countries. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL6HelmEmsY

As for Sergio Gor - the sudden appointment of a highly trusted assistant to set up camp in India, is consistent with this fear. It is known that Modi is not responding to the US after the collapse of the last round of trade talks. This seems another attempt to reach out/seek attention.

Finally, I think the media is hyping up the "India-China patch up" and setting up a "India choosing China over US" strawman. Some even claim an India-Russia-China axis is taking shape. As EAM has articulated many times, we do not have to choose one side over the other. We are on our own side, we are our own "pole" in a multipolar world, and can choose one or more "partners" if there is a benefit. Russia, France, and Israel have proven consistently beneficial over decades. Also, coordinated actions under the BRICS platform are also happening, but that does not imply an RIC axis.

[Amber G.]

FWIW - Few points (easily can be verified) to be believed (or ignored):

Elon Musk has openly expressed interest in bringing Tesla to India “as soon as humanly possible,” following meetings with PM Modi... However, progress was delayed by prolonged disagreements over import duties versus local manufacturing commitments. (India pushed for manufacturing first before granting concessions on otherwise steep import tariffs)

By mid-2022, after more than a year of unproductive discussions, Tesla reportedly shelved plans to bring vehicles into India. The efforts faltered due to India’s insistence on local production before allowing tax

- July 2025, Tesla launched its Model Y in India—imported from China, priced at around ₹6 million (~US $70,000) due to high tariffs—and set up its first showroom in Mumbai. The company also began hiring in India and has a small operational presence. But the possibility of a local factory remains remote

Musk’s other venture, Starlink, also faced regulatory and policy roadblocks in India. While ambitions have been high, delays persisted due to compliance, security clearances, and domestic competition. Only recently has Starlink received preliminary approvals and partnerships with firms like Jio and Airtel—

Musk even canceled a planned India visit last year—reportedly swayed by emerging opportunities in China and internal staffing changes at Tesla

[A_Gupta]

It’s about whether the U.S. will continue to sustain the scientific ecosystem that made it a global leader—or whether political whims will drive top researchers elsewhere.

The generation around at Indian Independence lived through the collapse of the British Empire; this generation is living through the collapse of the American Empire. Interesting times, indeed!

I can comprehend the native-born Americans' fear of immigrants, the fear of the browning of America, and their worry about the loss of manufacturing and manufacturing expertise. How that also goes hand-in-hand with anti-science, the slashing of scientific funding, promoting anti-vixx, and so on is an open question; it has to be the belief that all these things are run by, and benefits those other, alien people.

But if MAGA goes along with killing the engines of US prosperity when there are disproportionately not-born-in-the-US folks manning them, then where does it end? Trump wants the federal government to own 10% of Intel; if the current trend goes on, I think he will extend it to other companies, and then after that, he (or Stephen Miller) will demand that there be no foreign-born CEOs of American corporations.

[pravula]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

For India, in addition to avoiding being dragged into someone else’s domestic politics, the whole idea is frankly bizarre. Elevating Musk in this way would be stupid — he’s as much (if not more than Trump) of a con-man as he is a businessman, and certainly not the technical genius people imagine (I know this firsthand). I’d almost guarantee that Piyush Goyal is too smart to fall for such theatrics. It would be about as sensible as inviting Imran Khan to Delhi just because he has a quarrel with Munir."

Elon is not a tech genius, but he is someone who gets stuff done. He did not found Tesla, but look at its growth after he managed to take control. SpaceX is another one. OpenAI is third, NuralLink is another...He is rightly respected as a good CEO with a decent understanding of sciences. IMHO only...

[williams]

It’s about whether the U.S. will continue to sustain the scientific ecosystem that made it a global leader—or whether political whims will drive top researchers elsewhere.

The generation around at Indian Independence lived through the collapse of the British Empire; this generation is living through the collapse of the American Empire. Interesting times, indeed!

I can comprehend the native-born Americans' fear of immigrants, the fear of the browning of America, and their worry about the loss of manufacturing and manufacturing expertise. How that also goes hand-in-hand with anti-science, the slashing of scientific funding, promoting anti-vixx, and so on is an open question; it has to be the belief that all these things are run by, and benefits those other, alien people.

But if MAGA goes along with killing the engines of US prosperity when there are disproportionately not-born-in-the-US folks manning them, then where does it end? Trump wants the federal government to own 10% of Intel; if the current trend goes on, I think he will extend it to other companies, and then after that, he (or Stephen Miller) will demand that there be no foreign-born CEOs of American corporations.

Gupta ji collapse of American Empire is a bit far away, but the current Admin is surely speeding the decline with dumbo moves. But we need to recognize that the raise of MAGA happened due to the the collapse of common sense in the previous Admin. Note that unlike the British Empire they have a lot of more market cap in private hands. So it is too soon to say if the trend will continue. Hence India should play this with delegate balance. While we should do everything to oppose Trump Admin, we should not appear anti-American. We should keep the door open to mend this relationship in the future.

[KL Dubey]

^^The era of "dominance" is slipping away, for multiple reasons. At best, ensuring "competitiveness" and "avoiding breakdown of society" is a reasonable goal. Trying to row upstream in a futile effort at retaining "dominance" in a world where 1 billion+ giants like China and India are growing back quickly. What a waste of resources.

[Vayutuvan]

Invite Elon & say Tesla cars will have zero tariff, but other US vehicles will be subject to tariffs & duties. Have someone like Piyush Goyal tweet about it.

This could be done in the guise that India is really pushing hard to meet climate pledge goals and the desire to be less reliant on fossil fuels.

Do we have to explain why we have differentiated tariffs? Are there WTO rules that prevent such a thing?

[bharathp]

my conspiracy brain keeps saying, it is the chinks who asked thumpasura to reduce India's stature in return for a tariff bargains. and it is easier to be number 1 and number 2 longer and stronger when the only other competitor (the rising number4/3) is halted in its tracks with no other in sight.
paki was always a used napkin to be used an thrown by anyone. they arent going awy anywhere.
they said, reduce your dependece or the cheena +1 and in return we will ensure REs are not stopped for you, we get taiwan you can get ukraine we rule our side, you rule yours.

[Vayutuvan]

my conspiracy brain keeps saying, it is the chinks who asked thumpasura to reduce India's stature in return for a tariff bargains.

@bharatp ji, this is a high stakes game - unimaginably high stakes. Every trick will be used as the prize is Russia moves away from China or the formation of a second pole as powerful as US-Europe, i.e. China-Russia with India tilting towards their Asian peers. What Americans might be counting on is the mistrust of China in India and China dumping cheap goods into India decimating Indian SMEs. It is also a fact that Indians do not like communist-like state that is China where there are no personal freedoms. It is capitalist alright but also totalitarian. That is another factor the US admin might be counting on.

[A_Gupta]

^^The era of "dominance" is slipping away, for multiple reasons. At best, ensuring "competitiveness" and "avoiding breakdown of society" is a reasonable goal. Trying to row upstream in a futile effort at retaining "dominance" in a world where 1 billion+ giants like China and India are growing back quickly. What a waste of resources.

Competitiveness is severely at risk.

The US could have chosen a path to be first among equals. North America + EU + Japan + South Korea + India if cooperating, can collectively run circles around China. But Trump has chosen another path. There is no going back. Which is unfortunate for me, because I don't want to live in a China-dominated world.

China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries
September 2024.
https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/1 ... ndustries/

Added - collapse can be gradual, or can be almost instantaneous (e.g., the Soviet Union). Trump as an aberration, e.g., like Indira Gandhi's emergency, could possibly be true. But I'm increasingly convinced that MAGA is going to be the norm. I also do not see viable mechanisms for repairing the damage that Trump will leave behind. If there is any leadership that can get the US out of this mess, I don't think it has emerged yet.

[Amber G.]

For India, in addition to avoiding being dragged into someone else’s domestic politics, the whole idea is frankly bizarre. Elevating Musk in this way would be stupid — he’s as much (if not more than Trump) of a con-man as he is a businessman, and certainly not the technical genius people imagine (I know this firsthand). I’d almost guarantee that Piyush Goyal is too smart to fall for such theatrics. It would be about as sensible as inviting Imran Khan to Delhi just because he has a quarrel with Munir."

Elon is not a tech genius, but he is someone who gets stuff done. He did not found Tesla, but look at its growth after he managed to take control. SpaceX is another one. OpenAI is third, NuralLink is another...He is rightly respected as a good CEO with a decent understanding of sciences. IMHO only...

True — no doubt Musk is respected as a CEO who has pushed things forward and attracted enormous attention. But the narrative about his ‘understanding of science’ is, in my view, quite overblown. His real skill (and also, I think luck) has been assembling strong engineering teams and pushing them hard. That’s valuable, but also not unique — other capable CEOs could have delivered similar results with the same resources and timing. He’s certainly influential, but hardly irreplaceable...particularly for India .. IMHO only ..

[Vayutuvan]

It is an axiom that "nobody is irreplaceable" in any field of endeavour.

[gakakkad]

^^The era of "dominance" is slipping away, for multiple reasons. At best, ensuring "competitiveness" and "avoiding breakdown of society" is a reasonable goal. Trying to row upstream in a futile effort at retaining "dominance" in a world where 1 billion+ giants like China and India are growing back quickly. What a waste of resources.

Competitiveness is severely at risk.

The US could have chosen a path to be first among equals. North America + EU + Japan + South Korea + India if cooperating, can collectively run circles around China. But Trump has chosen another path. There is no going back. Which is unfortunate for me, because I don't want to live in a China-dominated world.

China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries
September 2024.
https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/1 ... ndustries/

Added - collapse can be gradual, or can be almost instantaneous (e.g., the Soviet Union). Trump as an aberration, e.g., like Indira Gandhi's emergency, could possibly be true. But I'm increasingly convinced that MAGA is going to be the norm. I also do not see viable mechanisms for repairing the damage that Trump will leave behind. If there is any leadership that can get the US out of this mess, I don't think it has emerged yet.

i should probably learn mandarin and find myself a cheeni phook sundari and get ready for a tallel deepel world.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/indi ... 250823.htm
India suspends postal services to US amid new customs rules
Hemant Waje, August 23, 2025

Not just India.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/european-p ... t-tariffs/
Postal services in India, Europe. U.K. to suspend shipment of packages to U.S. over import tariffs

Multiple postal services around Europe announced Saturday that they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid a lack of clarity over new import duties.

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

India's government also said the country will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value, the AFP reported.
...
...
"Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out," DHL, the largest shipping provider in Europe, said in a statement.

Postnord, the Nordic logistics company, and Italy's postal service announced similar suspensions effective Saturday.

[pravula]

Elon is not a tech genius, but he is someone who gets stuff done. He did not found Tesla, but look at its growth after he managed to take control. SpaceX is another one. OpenAI is third, NuralLink is another...He is rightly respected as a good CEO with a decent understanding of sciences. IMHO only...

True — no doubt Musk is respected as a CEO who has pushed things forward and attracted enormous attention. But the narrative about his ‘understanding of science’ is, in my view, quite overblown. His real skill (and also, I think luck) has been assembling strong engineering teams and pushing them hard. That’s valuable, but also not unique — other capable CEOs could have delivered similar results with the same resources and timing. He’s certainly influential, but hardly irreplaceable...particularly for India .. IMHO only ..

His real skill (and also, I think luck) has been assembling strong engineering teams and pushing them hard. That’s valuable, but also not unique

Assembling a strong engineering team AND keeping them motivated is non-trivial and sometimes orders of magnitude harder than basic science research. One needs to be perceived as a capable CEO before a strong eng person will hitch their wagon onto them. Similar to how top grad/PhD applicants will only consider certain profs with proven record. Yes, other professors can also deliver, but they would be considered a safe bet vs a top tier institute+prof combo.

I am sure you are well aware of what Princeton Institute for Advanced Study did to short circuit this and why...Elon did the opposite once he built his "aura". He used it to build companies that attracted talent...

[eklavya]

Dr. Brahma Chellaney
https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1959129654318543066
Trump waited over seven months — until U.S.-India ties had sunk to a new low — to name an ambassador to India. By doubling the nominee’s role as special envoy for South and Central Asia, Washington signals a throwback to the Cold War era that bracketed India with Pakistan. America weakens its own hand by reducing India from a global partner to a South Asian player.

With all due respect, Brahma Chellaney is using terms of reference that are no longer relevant.

The US security guarantee (or whatever you want to call it) for its East Asian allies is dead.

If anyone thinks that the US will come to the defence of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc., they are only kidding themselves. This President and his supporters do not care to shed a single drop of blood for these “far away places”.

It is meaningless to talk about “global partnership” with such a player.

[drnayar]

Competitiveness is severely at risk.

The US could have chosen a path to be first among equals. North America + EU + Japan + South Korea + India if cooperating, can collectively run circles around China. But Trump has chosen another path. There is no going back. Which is unfortunate for me, because I don't want to live in a China-dominated world.

China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries
September 2024.
https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/1 ... ndustries/

Added - collapse can be gradual, or can be almost instantaneous (e.g., the Soviet Union). Trump as an aberration, e.g., like Indira Gandhi's emergency, could possibly be true. But I'm increasingly convinced that MAGA is going to be the norm. I also do not see viable mechanisms for repairing the damage that Trump will leave behind. If there is any leadership that can get the US out of this mess, I don't think it has emerged yet.

i should probably learn mandarin and find myself a cheeni phook sundari and get ready for a tallel deepel world.

well , i see that already happening in Russia and Belarus ., most kids learn Chinese as second language !

[chetak]

Dr. Brahma Chellaney
https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1959129654318543066
Trump waited over seven months — until U.S.-India ties had sunk to a new low — to name an ambassador to India. By doubling the nominee’s role as special envoy for South and Central Asia, Washington signals a throwback to the Cold War era that bracketed India with Pakistan. America weakens its own hand by reducing India from a global partner to a South Asian player.

With all due respect, Brahma Chellaney is using terms of reference that are no longer relevant.

The US security guarantee (or whatever you want to call it) for its East Asian allies is dead.

If anyone thinks that the US will come to the defence of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc., they are only kidding themselves. This President and his supporters do not care to shed a single drop of blood for these “far away places”.

It is meaningless to talk about “global partnership” with such a player.

eklavya ji,

We tend to forget that the amrikis have a powerplay operationally active in beediland that gives them a safe haven to build a base to protect their venture and to forcibly access REE sources in the region. This REE is one of trump's pet projects ever since the cheen shafted him on the REE front, even though the beedi base angle predates the tariff chaos

The NE is in turmoil because of externally fed and led destabilizations by BIF forces and the amrikis have had an unnatural interest in this specific region, since before 1947

youanus would not be so arrogant unless he was assured the backing by interested parties, and the pakis are major players in this mix, acting as mercenaries to fill their katoras

Things are ramping up and the new ambassador to India, especially by widening his role as special envoy for South and Central Asia is possibly going to be the pointsman and driver to keep the REE project under "imperial" protection

Myanmar is one of the world’s largest suppliers of rare earth production, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Experts say that most of those rare earths are sent to China, especially the less abundant heavy rare earth elements. “Its production has significantly strengthened China’s dominant position, effectively giving Beijing a de facto monopoly over the global heavy rare earths supply chain.

China’s reliance on Myanmar for rare earths has also opened it up to supply chain risks, experts said.

According to Global Witness’s research, most of the heavy rare earths from Myanmar originate from the Northern Kachin State, which borders China. However, following Myanmar’s violent military coup in 2021, the military junta has struggled to maintain control of the territory amid opposition from the public and armed groups.

“Myanmar is a risky jurisdiction to rely on, given the ongoing Civil War. In 2024, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a group of armed rebels, seized sites responsible for half the world’s heavy rare earths production,” said CSIS’ Baskaran.

Since the seizure, there have been reports of supply disruptions causing spikes in the prices of some heavy rare earths. According a Reuters report, the KIA was seeking to use the resources as leverage against Beijing.

[SRajesh]

^^^Chetakji
Why this interest in the Seven Little Sisters??
Apart from providing land for Jihadis to expand and propagate!! why this interest??
If Jihadis expand they wont let any others to survive there!!
So this establishment of Xtian state doesnt hold much water!!
Apart from Digbouy and OIL!! what other mineral wealth hidden that Unkil craves for!
Jade doesnt interest him much, so is it only REE!!
And add to this Dragon interest in AP (apart from land mass)
What gives??
What untapped wealth remains hidden in Seven Little Sisters that everybody wants a share!

[SRajesh]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... kGkGHaCPTT
Is this one of the reasons??

[drnayar]

^^^Chetakji
Why this interest in the Seven Little Sisters??
Apart from providing land for Jihadis to expand and propagate!! why this interest??
If Jihadis expand they wont let any others to survive there!!
So this establishment of Xtian state doesnt hold much water!!
Apart from Digbouy and OIL!! what other mineral wealth hidden that Unkil craves for!
Jade doesnt interest him much, so is it only REE!!
And add to this Dragon interest in AP (apart from land mass)
What gives??
What untapped wealth remains hidden in Seven Little Sisters that everybody wants a share!

i suspect Indian north east states have more oil , rare earths and possible shale deposits than discovered by India . America and China might be aware there is more to it ., i am assuming here so FWIW