India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[putnanja]

The diamond and jewellery exports to US are not only for desi customers. Many of the jewellery items found in big box stores like Macys, JC Penny, Nordstorm etc are from India. It is definitely a big market and contributes lot more in terms of people employed. Clothes is one other big labour-intensive industry. In the recent past, India had won more orders due to the strife in BD etc. Now, all of that is at risk

[uddu]

'Trump Is Going to Make America Alone Again,' Former Ambassador Deepak Vohra Says On The Debate

In this insightful discussion, former Indian Ambassador Deepak Vohra critiques U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy during a recent debate on international relations. Vohra warns that Trump's "America First" approach, characterized by aggressive tariffs, withdrawal from global alliances, and unilateral actions, risks isolating the United States on the world stage—turning "Make America Great Again" into "Make America Alone Again." Drawing from his extensive diplomatic experience, Vohra analyzes the implications for U.S.-India ties, global trade, and security, emphasizing how such isolation could weaken America's influence amid rising challenges from China and Russia. This clip highlights key moments from the debate, offering a balanced view on Trump's unpredictable leadership and its potential to reshape international dynamics. Watch now for expert analysis on why America cannot afford to go it alone in 2025.

[uddu]

How India Plans to Beat Trump’s Trade War | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G

Trump’s steep tariffs have triggered what experts call a full-blown trade war—Nomura even likens them to a “trade embargo.” Some exporters say it feels like an “earthquake.” But India isn’t standing still. New Delhi is exploring alternatives and building resilience. Talks with Washington are still on the table, but only on India’s terms. So, what is India's gameplan? Palki Sharma tells you.

[Cyrano]

IMO American/DD/Trump's new found hate for Modi has little to do with russian oil. Modi refused to become a vassal state of the US and become the next Ukraine against China.

For the global hegemon that the US wants to continue to be, a rebel India is a dangerous precedent to be nipped in the bud, and asap.

Which means Modi has to be toppled. I'm expecting the coming months will see numerous attacks on Modi and Bharat, attempts to foment internal strife and try and drag the country into chaos.
The stalled trade negotiations and just another tool to project Modi as an ineffectual leader. The claims of job losses in textiles, gems and jewellery etc will be massively exaggerated by our sold-out opposition and media. While ignoring the impact on our agri, fisheries industries if Bharat were to capitulate.

Already the S word has been used against Bharat, a friendly nation. The US will apply multiple levels of sanctions on Bharat for trading with Russia, and therefore the Ukraine conflict will have to continue for a few more months. All the rhetoric about millions of lives lost or saved is just that. Rhetoric.

Normally, NaMo is not the one to shy away from tough meetings or conversations. But if he has refused phone calls with Trump multiple times, then something must have been said by Trump & Co. which has gone horribly wrong, I guess this might have happened at the G7 in Canada.

In a recent speech, NaMo has said he is ready to pay a heavy price personally if required to protect the interest of Bharat and it's people. He never makes such statements unless he is sure of something and is sending a message.

That the US is not listening and is doubling down is clear from the recent appointment of Gor as ambassador to India and official troublemaker in our neighborhood.

IMO Trump has bitten into the lion's mane which he cannot chew, and a lion provoked will only become Narasimha.

[Cyrano]

All this means Bharat - US ties are being reset. And the next chapter will be written on Bharat's terms.

[drnayar]

I am wondering if the Americans can do this to a US ALLY... The new ambassador pick makes sense !!

Denmark Summons US Envoy over “Covert Influence Ops” in Greenland

Greenland is back in the spotlight. A shocking new report by Denmark's national broadcaster accuses three Trump-linked Americans of conducting covert influence operations on the icy island. Denmark has summoned the top U.S. diplomat in Copenhagen for answers. From secret recruitment lists to strategic resource deals, this story involves intelligence tactics, political manipulation, and a long-standing ambition by Donald Trump to "get" Greenland.

[chetak]

All this means Bharat - US ties are being reset. And the next chapter will be written on Bharat's terms.

Cyrano ji,


The public has lost it's naive political and soft power illusions of the amrikis. It has destroyed any feelings of bonhomie that may have existed in certain so called circles of privilege. The babooze and the lower grade academia will be affected by the visa restrictions that will kick in

of course, there are entire communities that have invested heavily in the amriki dream, and they will not be so keen to recognise the new normal so easily.

OTOH, the gora NGO ecosystem, will take a major hit, hemmed in by obstacles placed in path, without anyone bothering about what the presstitute media may have to say about, including educational "melas" routinely conducted by footpath grade gora universities to mop up Indian funds.

In less than a month, the ugly amriki have shown their true colors.

This genie will not be convinced go back into the bottle

[Rudradev]

@Rudradev, Modi invited Zelensky to India a few days ago, and the invitation was accepted.

What would constitute success of this visit? Basically, why did India extend the invitation to Zelensky at this time?

Personally, I think it's for optics. The intended audience is largely EU (although the American anti-Trump globalists and the Canadians/Australians/British could be targets as well).

Being the sycophantic louts that they are, Chump's bigmouth brigade (Navarro, Bessent et al) have gone overboard calling Russia-Ukraine "Modi's war", "financed by India" and all kinds of other nonsense. MEA has offered no direct response, instead treating these people with the contempt they deserve.

Inviting Zelensky, and having some sort of productive result emerge from the meeting (bilateral trade deal, humanitarian aid etc) even if no concrete steps are taken towards ending the RUS/UKR conflict, self-evidently rubbishes any notion of India being Putin's stooge or Ukraine's enemy. It also lights up India on the radars of various Eastern European countries, some of them now NATO members, with whom India has a history of excellent relations and who now find themselves uneasy with all the Chumpy-ness coming out of Washington. But that's the bare minimum.

It's also possible that Modi has been nominated as SCO/BRICS' interlocutor to offer Zelensky something the Americans under Chump obviously cannot: a reliable option for peace with honor that provides a better outcome for Kiev than Chump (even in his medicated moments) has ever put on the table. After all, Washington has zero leverage on Russia anymore (it has already thrown all the sanctions it can at Moscow), and little credibility with Zelensky besides (having mistreated him during his White House visits and constantly double-talked about cutting off aid to Ukraine if he doesn't swallow their bitter pills).

Meanwhile, India is one of those rare countries that enjoys the confidence of both Putin and Zelensky. Moreover, the trust that America's traditional allies place in Chump's Washington is at an all-time low. If one wants to demonstrate how drastically the stature of the US as a global policeman/arbiter has declined relative to SCO/BRICS, with all of the Global South and all of the Americans' traditional allies watching, there could be no better opportunity.

So-- assuming Putin also wants to end the war sooner or later-- he would MUCH rather do so in terms of a peace agreement brokered by SCO/BRICS (with Modi as the frontman) than one placed on the table by Chump and NATO. It's possible that Zelensky too, having no confidence in Chump by this point, has become open to such a solution-- nothing the US and NATO have proposed seems to be achievable, reliable, or even consistent.

It will be a spectacular bonus if Modi is able to bring Putin and Zelensky together for a summit that actually leads to ending the war-- upstaging Chump overwhelmingly. A victory for BRICS and SCO, and a humiliating defeat for Chumperica that goes far beyond mere rejection of the dollar as the preferred currency of international trade.

In brief, Chump has made a big show of abandoning responsibility for the US-led international order to "Make America Great Again". It makes sense for an emerging rival bloc to take full advantage of this self-goal by overtly establishing itself as the arbiter of a new and improved international order. This may very well be what the recent high-level discussions between Jaishankar, Wang, Lavrov and others have been about. The coming SCO summit may well be where they raise the flag of a resurgent Fortress Eurasia.

[Tanaji]

Rudradevji, why in the world should we get involved in this European mess? That conflict has been raging for 30 years in some form or the other and at least one of the reasons is that Nato has dreams of humiliating Russia. What do you think Modiji can do to disabuse the Nato hawks from this?

Secondly I suspect at least a significant group of Zelenskys coterie does not want the conflict to end as it means an end to their gravy train.

Imho, we should stay well away and issue anodyne statements about peace and let them stew.

[Rudradev]

Everything has to be measured in terms of the anticipated cost/benefit ratio.

Thus far, it cost India the least, and benefited it the most to remain equidistant between US/NATO and BRICS/SCO. Chump in his wisdom has made that nuanced position untenable-- he demands that India should kowtow to his diktats or face unpleasant consequences.

What is also happening now is a slow-motion disintegration of NATO. They used to all speak in one voice when it came to Russia. Now all the European NATO-ids come to Washington to back up Zelensky against a (hostile by implication) Trump, whom they believe might give away too much to Russia if he is in charge of brokering a peace agreement. True, their institutional thinking keeps them Russia-obsessed for the moment; but if Chump is determined to suck the blood out of NATO by extorting money and humiliating partners, then the rationale for a Russia-focused NATO itself is bound to evaporate. Increasingly, Europeans will find themselves geopolitically homeless and in search of new alignments.

In this circumstance, it doesn't benefit India at all to maintain the same extent of its normal US-friendly position. It also costs India a lot to try and fight the tariff-terrorism on its own rather than making common cause with every other country, including European countries, who also suffer from it. So the cost/benefit ratio is entirely different and India must respond accordingly. For better or worse, India has decided to use the BRICS/SCO platform as the launch pad for its response.

The demise of NATO (and the ability to gain influence with various European capitals in the vacuum as it recedes) is something that directly benefits all three principals in the R-I-C agenda. Modi, as a democratically elected leader known to have presided over the tremendous growth of India's economy, and moreover respected as not having any expansionist designs of his own, is the obvious choice for the R-I-C's face to deal with NATO's now-uneasy European partners.

[uddu]

“Modi’s War"? Why the US is Playing Good Cop, Bad Cop with India

Do you know what a good cop, bad cop routine looks like in geopolitics? Washington is testing India’s resilience with tariffs, threats, and carefully placed conciliatory remarks. On one side, you have Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, calling the Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war” and accusing India of “getting in bed with authoritarians.” On the other, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is striking an optimistic tone, insisting the U.S. and India will eventually work together. Palki Sharma decodes Washington's strategy.

[A_Gupta]

AFAIK, Poland and Ukraine started out in roughly the same per capita income when the USSR disintegrated; but Poland is now four times Ukraine in nominal per capita income, and more than twice in PPP terms.

This is likely because of Poland's integration with the European Union. It is natural then for Ukraine to want to integrate with the European Union. But this also means military alignment with the European Union, and then NATO, etc., and that has negative security implications for Russia. In one sense, that is the root of the war. There is no alternative attractive model for development -- unless BRICS can get its act together. If Ukraine can be convinced that it can grow economy-wise just the same with a non-aligned foreign policy, that could alleviate the underlying tension.

[a_bharat]

The way the Americans are braying about India's purchase of Russian oil, and in light of recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, I think they are setting up an attack on Reliance's Jamnagar refinery using their proxy, pak. Pakis in fact already threatened to attack Reliance's refinery.

[sanjaykumar]

That refinery is worth more than all of Pakistan-infrastructure and Human resources. There will be an exchange. The Pakistani gernails have dual citizenship, so this may well happen.

[Tanaji]

If the refinery is attacked then India must take out every power plant operated by WAPDA, and factories operated by PA. The response must be 10x and seen to be delivered.

[SSridhar]

If the refinery is attacked then India must take out every power plant operated by WAPDA, and factories operated by PA. The response must be 10x and seen to be delivered.

Including CPEC-built power plants. We don’t care what these are so long as they exist on Pakistani soil.

TSP (& China) may be miscalculating that India can be crippled and India will sue for peace just as KSA did after the 2019 Iranian attack on KSA’s oil facilities near Jubail on the east coast.

[Jay]

IMO American/DD/Trump's new found hate for Modi has little to do with russian oil. Modi refused to become a vassal state of the US and become the next Ukraine against China.

Not only that cyrano ji, by publicly saying trump did not mediate the ceasefire, Modi ji also denied him the "protector" status trump loved to care about and he's not liking this public stance. trumps has not only become anti-India, but has become anti-Modi too.

[williams]

The way the Americans are braying about India's purchase of Russian oil, and in light of recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, I think they are setting up an attack on Reliance's Jamnagar refinery using their proxy, pak. Pakis in fact already threatened to attack Reliance's refinery.

First of the refinery is well protected and anybody who thinks otherwise should be naive. Pakis do not have the guts to do such things anymore. Just because Trump patted munna's back does not mean Pakis got any new change in hard power balance in the region. Pakis know this and they will never try a direct attack. Some terrorist type thingy is always a possibility, but that will have to take place after some time, today they are bruised and battered from a hard power point of view. Also if they think economic targets are fair game, then you know what we can do.

Second, I don't think Trump thought through his strategy beyond tariffs and the idea of somehow balancing trade out of it. India on the other hand has a well thought out strategy and hence no backing off from buying Russian oil. This war will continue until the west gets exhausted and Russia gets what it wants. Once that happens, the big loser will be the west and everyone knows about it.

Trump who looks like a great leader to the MAGA crown today, will see a diminished person next year, if there are no wins and economic pain starts having an impact. We can and will deal with it when it happens and we will have the upper hand. Right now we need to keep pressing the economic accelerators go get going abd become atmanirbhar. Tariffs and some vague statements from senile old people in Khan land cannot stop that.

[Rudradev]

Of course, India must be (and surely is) ready for anything.

But do we seriously think the Pakis have the guts, let alone the wherewithal to hit Jamnagar in the near future? The ghastly wounds of Op Sindoor are still festering, and they are militarily in a worse position now (a huge % of the PAF gone, many terrorists both in & out of uniform gone) than they were on May 7th. They know what the retaliation will be and are in no position to handle it.

Even assuming that they trust Trump to arm them or intervene militarily like Nixon did— which being Pakis, they just might be daft enough to— that hasn't had nearly enough time to happen. I would think they'd at least wait for the new F16s and AMRAAMs they were promised.

Meanwhile could they count on even the Chinese— who were active participants in combat last time— to do as much this time, given Ass-him Munir's courting of Trump and all the promises made to the US in this regard, and given that a strike on Indian refineries is clearly intended to impact Russia as well?

[drnayar]

think Jamnagar = Ambani. pakis saying fall in line..else.. probably wants ambanis money for the wokes inside india

[Cyrano]

No way Pakis can attack Jamnagar and survive. Where is this idea coming from?

[A_Gupta]

In the first quarter India real GDP growth was 7.8% annualized.

I wonder if this will feed into the geoeconomics/politics.

[Vayutuvan]

Service sector grew by 9.5% as per Suraj's post in the Indian Economy thread.

There is a distinct possibility that US will try to hit Indian service exports to the US. I am not sure how they can do it but they will try for sure.

[A_Gupta]

The breaking news is that a Federal Appeals court has ruled that Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Waiting for confirmation, and whether they have stayed their ruling pending an appeal to the US Supreme Court.

—could be fake news.

[pravula]

They have stayed it till Oct 14th.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/trump-t ... ieepa.html

[Amber G.]

The breaking news is that a Federal Appeals court has ruled that Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Waiting for confirmation, and whether they have stayed their ruling pending an appeal to the US Supreme Court.

—could be fake news.

From the lawyer who argued the in the court's tweet: )(27 minutes ago)
"..we won the tariffs case. President Trump’s tariffs are illegal. More to come."

A U.S. appeals court has ruled that most of Trump’s global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act , are illegal, determining that he exceeded his authority.

However, the tariffs remain in effect for now, as the case is ongoing.

One funny part is that Scott Bessent said the United States would be embarrassed if the tariffs were deemed illegal. Way to broadcast how stupid they will look..

Alsohttps://www.axios.com/2025/08/29/trump- ... ling-ieepa

What they're saying: Trump, in an Aug. 8 Truth Social post, warned of serious consequences if a court ruling cut off that revenue.

"It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION! If they were going to rule against the wealth, strength, and power of America, they should have done so LONG AGO, at the beginning of the case, where our entire Country, while never having a chance at this kind of GREATNESS again, would not have been put in 1929 style jeopardy," Trump said.
What we're watching: Aside from a likely appeal to the Supreme Court, market watchers said Trump was likely to double down on tariffs under other trade authorities (like so-called Section 232 sectoral tariffs and Section 301 national tariffs) where IEEPA wasn't an issue.

"The main takeaway is chaos and volatility," said Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners. "I would expect the White House to announce more Section 301 investigations and more Section 232 investigations."

[Amber G.]

More Docs (Whole ruling):
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap ... 59.0_1.pdf

Core of court ruling:

Kudos to Neil Katyal and his team. This is a tremendous result.

[A_Gupta]

It appears to be a 5-4 decision.

Meaning I give it zero probability of surviving the US Supreme Court.

It is 7-4. I think 5 wrote one opinion, 2 concurred; and 4 dissented.

The odds of surviving the Supreme Court are better. However there are possibly other tricks they might play, such as ruling that while Trump’s tariffs are illegal, the reversion to normal need happen in five years.

We are not addressing whether the President’s actions should have been taken as a matter of policy. Nor are we deciding whether IEEPA authorizes any tariffs at all. Rather, the only issue we resolve on appeal is whether the Trafficking Tariffs and Reciprocal Tariffs imposed by the Challenged Executive Orders are authorized by IEEPA. We conclude they are not.

[ShauryaT]

The tragedy of the US system is everything has become partisan (maybe always was) making a mockery of the rule of law. 8 of the judges were appointed by democrats and 3 appointed by Republican Presidents. No wonder Trump is confident of an SC win with a 6-3 majority.

[Amber G.]

Jeff Smith (Director Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation)

"Blow up our relationship with India over Russia's invasion of Ukraine," is proof we're in the dumbest timeline. Putin loves this.

If this is what "winning" looks like, I'd rather lose.

[-- "White House trade adviser Peter Navarro sought to raise pressure on India to halt purchases of Russian energy after the US imposed crippling new tariffs on New Delhi, casting the conflict in Ukraine as “Modi’s war.” ..]

[Amber G.]

Trump Tweets:

[Amber G.]

NYT reporting for the first time on Trump's side of the June 17 call with Modi based on sources in Washington and Delhi



Trump has tried to reach out to Modi several times, but MEA babus are worried about his Truth Social antics..

Also Trump is not coming for QUAD..

[gakakkad]

W.r.t supreme Court , 2 trump appointees that have frequently been fair and even opposed trump are gorsuch and barrett . Gorsuch especially has ruled mostly on technicality and not on political zeitgeist . Basically the technicality here is is this foreign policy vs is this an economic matter . Arguments overwhelmingly in favor of this being an economic matter . Therefore it's not within POTUS realm . I now make sense of the added Russia oil tarriffs on India and the fentanyl tarriffs on China . In the light of this decision they seem to be an attempt to convert an economic matter to a political matter .

[A_Gupta]

India supplies 15.5% of Ukraine’s diesel in July.

https://www.nefterynok.info/en/news/ind ... ne-in-july

Also: “ Over the first seven months of 2025, India’s share in the diesel supply structure reached 10.2%, more than five times higher than last year’s figure (1.9%). At the same time, in physical volumes, imports from India still significantly lag behind Turkish and Greek resources.”

[gakakkad]

So basically India refines Russian crude and sells it to the chubs

[drnayar]

W.r.t supreme Court , 2 trump appointees that have frequently been fair and even opposed trump are gorsuch and barrett . Gorsuch especially has ruled mostly on technicality and not on political zeitgeist . Basically the technicality here is is this foreign policy vs is this an economic matter . Arguments overwhelmingly in favor of this being an economic matter . Therefore it's not within POTUS realm . I now make sense of the added Russia oil tarriffs on India and the fentanyl tarriffs on China . In the light of this decision they seem to be an attempt to convert an economic matter to a political matter .

even in rare case tariffs being upturned, that against India would hold.. its sanctions !!

[gakakkad]

Tarriffs don't meet legal definitions of sanctions . If he imposes sanctions on India Boeing would be bankrupt. And it would drive the American economy in deep recession. Remember all defense deals and all selling of all stuff to India remains intact . If India wants f35 they ll sign the deal tomorrow. They used the word sanctions because they are idiots and don't know the difference

[A_Gupta]

Is this India-US military exercise in Alaska still going forward?
https://indianmasterminds.com/news/indi ... es-137484/

[gakakkad]

No military engagement etc has changed . Even the + 2 dialogue happened last week . All back channels etc are wide open .

Trump is an abberation and normalcy will mostly be restored eventually. However Americans will have to work extra hard to gain trust ever again and that ll probably never happen. Probably immaterial any way as India would be more or less independent by 2040 from the west in needing anything at all.

[A_Gupta]

Apparently, Japan had no agreement on rice imports from the US, but Trump & co. say Japan has agreed and we’re putting it in the Presidential order. That is one reason the Japanese trade negotiator canceled his visit to the US.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2 ... ncel-rice/

It is not just what lies Trump will say after talking to PM Modi; the US administration as a whole is not reliable. If the work product of the US-Japan negotiators can be so amended, what is the point of coming to an agreement?