Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[uddu]

Petrobras CEO touts strong demand from China, India
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-09-02/

SAO PAULO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's Petrobras (PETR3.SA), opens new tab has been seeing strong demand from India and China for its products, CEO Magda Chambriard said on Tuesday, noting the two countries could have shielded the state-run oil company from the impacts of potential U.S. tariffs.
The South American country could have "easily redirected exports" if U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed levies on imports of Brazilian oil, Chambriard said at an event hosted by Bloomberg in Sao Paulo.

"India presents itself to Brazil and Petrobras as a buyer of any product we want to export," she said.

[uddu]

GST Council Meeting | GST Council Approves Measures To Ease Compliance For Businesses: Sources

The Goods and Services Tax Council has approved measures to ease burden of compliance on businesses, sources told NDTV Wednesday evening. The measures approved include reduction of registration time for MSMEs, i.e., medium, small, and micro enterprises, and start-ups from 30 days to just three. A proposal for automated GST refunds for exporters was also cleared.

[srin]

There is a lot of celebration in social media regarding the cut in GST (to boost domestic consumption and offset effects of sanctions) and personal income tax earlier. But I’m concerned that the revenue receipts will take a big hit and the fiscal consolidation that was happening (that halved the fiscal deficit) will not continue.

I’m sure I’m missing something: I don’t see how the increased consumption is going to offset taxes, and OTOH, it may increase inflation

[uddu]

FM Sitharaman Introduces New GST Slabs, PM Modi Delivers Promise To Common Man

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a complete reduction in GST rates for common man and middle-class items, making essentials like hair oil, toilet soap, shampoos, and bicycles more affordable at just 5%. Ultra-high-temperature milk, chena, paneer, and all Indian breads like roti and paratha now have a zero GST rate, slashing your grocery bills. Food items like namkeen, sauces, pasta, and chocolates are now taxed at 5%, down from 12% or 18%, while air conditioners, large TVs, and small cars drop to 18% from 28%.

But that’s not all—Sitharaman’s reforms go beyond everyday items. Paan masala, tobacco, and luxury goods face a new 40% GST rate once compensation cess loans are repaid, targeting sin and super-luxury products. Insurance services are also overhauled, with individual life and health policies now GST-exempt to make coverage more accessible. Labour-intensive industries, farmers, and the health sector will benefit, ensuring broader economic growth.

GST for a long time keep on showing record growth. So at some point its govt responsibility to give back some relief to the common man from the increased revenue they collected, and ensure the economy is given a boost when export related markets are not in good shape/getting closed. Buoyancy in domestic market will bring GST collection back to same level in few years.

[pravula]

Thats a bad idea, 40% on tobacco. It will spur a tobacco mafia, similar to prohibition and tobacco tax evasion from before.

[sanjayc]

GST cuts are too radical. They should have just brought GST rates down one level. So abolish 28% and shift everything taxable at this rate to 18%. All 18% to 12%. All 12% to 5%. That way, Govt. won't have lost huge amount of revenue and also made things cheaper than before

[Hriday]

[ritesh]

GST cuts are too radical. They should have just brought GST rates down one level. So abolish 28% and shift everything taxable at this rate to 18%. All 18% to 12%. All 12% to 5%. That way, Govt. won't have lost huge amount of revenue and also made things cheaper than before

+100

Seems like govt is trying its best to outdo anything opposition is trying to flung at them.

[ritesh]

Thats a bad idea, 40% on tobacco. It will spur a tobacco mafia, similar to prohibition and tobacco tax evasion from before.

Exactly, you can see beedis and unorganised sector making comeback in tobacco is some sort of evading taxes.

[uddu]

PM Modi, PM Lawrence Wong of Singapore attend joint press meet at Hyderabad House, New Delhi

PM Modi Live: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and PM Lawrence Wong of Singapore witness exchange of key MoUs and attend the joint press meet at Hyderabad House, New Delhi.
RBI and Monetary Authority of Singapore sign agreement on Digital assets innovation.

[JE Menon]

From Perplexity, in response to the prompt: "What is the size of the Indian 'black economy'"?

______________________________________________________________
India's "black economy"—often referred to as the shadow, informal, or parallel economy—remains one of the largest in the world, though estimates of its size vary significantly depending on the methodology and what counts as “black money.”

Key Estimates for 2025
Shadow Economy Value: The size of India’s shadow economy is estimated at around $931 billion USD in 2025, making it the third largest in the world after China and the US.

Share of GDP: Most current credible assessments place the black economy at 13%–26% of India's official GDP. Some older or broader measures extend up to 50%, but these are widely considered outdated or theoretical.

The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) projected the shadow economy to shrink to 13.6% of GDP by 2025.

A consensus of more recent research and reports, including Ernst & Young, puts the figure between 20–26% of GDP.

India's total GDP for 2025 is about $4 trillion USD, so the black economy is roughly one-quarter of this.

Black Money Abroad: Various reports mention Indian black money held outside the country (e.g., Swiss banks and other offshore havens), but over 90% is believed to be within India itself.

Informal Sector: The informal sector also contributes significantly, estimated at about 45% of GDP by the government (note: this broader informal sector includes non-illegal but unregulated activity, not all of which is "black money").

Takeaways
The black/shadow economy is probably $900 billion to $1 trillion USD, or 13–26% of India’s GDP in 2025.

Most of India’s black money remains within the country, embedded in real estate, gold, and various business activities.

While efforts have been made (like demonetization and digital payments) to curb the black economy, it remains a major challenge for governance, tax collection, and economic data reliability.

The numbers above reflect best recent estimates by international consultancies, Indian government surveys, and global watchdogs.

[A_Gupta]

The GST changes make the rupee have much more buying power. If supply can keep up with increased demand, there will be no inflation. If employers and government can skip a few salary increments or dearness allowance, etc., then they save. Also what supplies the govt buys is cheaper. All those should alleviate the fiscal deficit.

[A_Gupta]

“ The GST cuts will mean a net revenue loss of 576 billion Indian rupees, or 0.16% of GDP for the fiscal year, according to Citi.”

“ Indian households are expected to get a boost in spending power equal to 0.7% and 0.8% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2026, Citi economists said, while the GST cuts could reduce inflation by 1.1 percentage points if the full tax cut is passed on to consumers.”

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/09/04/ind ... -modi.html