Understanding the US - Again

[Vayutuvan]

KD Harris is blaming everybody but herself in her book "107 days".

1. Democrats she calls out in her book
   • Biden
   • Newsom
   • Pritzker
   • Buttigieg
   • Josh Shapiro
   • Whitmer
   • Mark Kelly
2. Politico reports Harris' score-settling, elbow-throwing, bridge-burning memoir

   "Hiking. Will call back," wrote former VP in her notes from her calls that day, which are recounted in her campaign memoirs "107 Days". She pointedly noted in parenthesis: "He (ed: Gavin Newsom) never did"

[Vayutuvan]

Unemployment rates among college grads and non-college grads, June 2025
Young Workers (22-27): 7.4%
Recent College Grads (22-27): 4.8%
All workers: 4.0%
All college grads: 2.7%

BLS, US Census buro (sic) Population survey (IPUMS)

For recent computer engg/comp sci graduates, the unemployment rates are between 6-7.5% (as per WHOTUS - not verified).

[Vayutuvan]

On July 7th Axios reports

Democrats Told To "Get Shot" for The Anti-Trump Resistance by Andrew Solender

"Our own base is telling us that what we're doing is not good enough ... [that] there needs to be blood to grab attention of the press and the public,", the lawmaker said.

[Vayutuvan]

State of schools in the US:

Nations Report Card
At or Above Proficient
NAEP, NCES

8th grade science: 31%
12th grade Math: 22%
12th grade reading: 35%
------------------------------
I want to know how numbers for Indian schools compare with these numbers. For apples to apples comparison, we have to include all schools, not DPS, All Saints, Methodist Grammar, Don Bosco, Canon, Little Flower, St. Annes, St. Francis, select KVs, etc.

[Vayutuvan]

Gas Prices:
CA: 4.66
National Average: 3.18

CA price is almost 1.5 times the national average.

California lawmakers pass bill to boost oil production

https://www.reuters.com/legal/governmen ... 025-09-15/

Summary
- SB 237 aims to reduce fuel prices by boosting local oil production
- Oil-rich Kern County to receive up to 2,000 drilling permits annually
- California targets 25% in-state crude supply to refineries

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - California lawmakers passed a bill over the weekend that would allow the construction of thousands of new oil wells annually in the Golden State in a bid to make oil supply more affordable for refineries and keep fuel prices in check for consumers.
The new bill, SB 237, would award the oil-rich Kern County up to 2,000 permits each year, effective January 2026. The aim is to have California oil producers supply close to 25% of crude to the state's refinery complex and help reduce costs for retail consumers of gasoline in the state.

Newsom is veering off of Dumbocrat green goals.

This is why.

Two refineries that make up around 17% of the state's gasoline production capacity are slated to close within the next year. The shutdowns, alongside other closures and refineries converted to produce renewable fuels, are expected to leave California even more dependent on costlier fuel imports that would further drive up prices.
"Few issues are more politically sensitive than gas prices at the pump, and with Governor (Gavin) Newsom widely expected to run for president in 2028, rising pump prices and declining in-state production have suddenly become top of mind concerns," said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests.

[A_Gupta]

Gautum Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and lecturer at Yale School of Management, breaks down what the new H-1B visa fee means for the US economy and the labor supply across various sectors.
https://youtu.be/wH5eFjqwt6Y?si=dPkCWV37icciZK6L

[Vayutuvan]

Can you trust this woman anymore? Can transgender and LGBTQ+ people?

Kamala Harris cites concerns about trans athletes in her book

The Trump campaign attacked Harris over her positions on transgender rights. She says they were misconstrued.

By Jeremy B. White
09/19/2025 06:06 PM EDT

Kamala Harris in her new memoir expresses reservations about transgender athletes competing on girls’ sports teams, echoing other national Democrats who have voiced a position long associated with conservatives.

President Donald Trump’s campaign hammered Harris over her positions on trans rights, releasing a now-famous ad with the tagline “Kamala is for they/them. I am for you” that Democrats across the country, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, acknowledged were effective. But Harris argues the Trump campaign misrepresented her positions, including on youth sports.

“I agree with the concerns expressed by parents and players that we have to take into account biological factors such as muscle mass and unfair student athletic advantage when we determine who plays on which teams, especially in contact sports,” Harris writes. “With goodwill and common sense, I believe we can come up with ways to do this, without vilifying and demonizing children.”

The passage makes Harris the latest national Democrat to question the fairness of allowing transgender athletes to compete in girls’ sports. Newsom broke with much of his party earlier this year by saying he felt their participation was “deeply unfair,” spurring both fury and praise from fellow Democrats and presaging a battle with the Trump administration over a transgender California athlete who competed in a state track-and-field championship.
...

Dems are going to have a Hobson's choice if it comes down to Newsom and Harris. Shapiro probably will not get the nomination due to his faith. Dems are as much anti-semitic as Evangelicals in addition to supporting Palestinian cause. They have dragged their feet on college campus protests.

[Vayutuvan]

Gautum Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and lecturer at Yale School of Management, breaks down what the new H-1B visa fee means for the US economy and the labor supply across various sectors.
https://youtu.be/wH5eFjqwt6Y?si=dPkCWV37icciZK6L

Enough beating a dead horse already.

That said, I have to add three anecdotal cases - non-IT - here.

1. Aerospace Engineering: Has done very well in college. one of the top 20 state unis. Graduated last year. Still searching for a job.

2. Bioengg: From one of the top 10 engg schools. 2nd gen PIO. No job for the last one year. Now applying for masters.

3. ChemEngg BS, MS in Materials/Environmental: BS from one of the top 10 engg schools, MS from a good school. 2nd gen PIO, still searching for job 10 months after graduating.

[A_Gupta]

Some data on salaries - not sure how reliable it is:
https://x.com/BhatAasim9/status/1969404944282501587

[vera_k]

The usual comeback for this data is that the job that's going for $149,000 in that list would otherwise have paid $249,000 in the absence of additional labor supply. Note that $149,000 is middle income and less than comfortable for a family of 3 and 4 respectively where Amazon is headquartered.

I suspect the current state of affairs in the US where CEOs and other management are paid many multiples of labor has much to do with creating a coalition of labor with maga types against employment immigration.

[A_Gupta]

Did the US suffered from a STEM labor shortage 2011-21?
My estimate says, definitely yes.
Link to my blog:
https://arunsmusings.blogspot.com/2025/ ... e.html?m=1

[gakakkad]

Gautum Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and lecturer at Yale School of Management, breaks down what the new H-1B visa fee means for the US economy and the labor supply across various sectors.
https://youtu.be/wH5eFjqwt6Y?si=dPkCWV37icciZK6L

Enough beating a dead horse already.

That said, I have to add three anecdotal cases - non-IT - here.

1. Aerospace Engineering: Has done very well in college. one of the top 20 state unis. Graduated last year. Still searching for a job.

2. Bioengg: From one of the top 10 engg schools. 2nd gen PIO. No job for the last one year. Now applying for masters.

3. ChemEngg BS, MS in Materials/Environmental: BS from one of the top 10 engg schools, MS from a good school. 2nd gen PIO, still searching for job 10 months after graduating.

Unfortunately there aren't good jobs for core engineering in massa except for very niche . All these people should be sent to India where there is a real need of core engineering but supply sucks.

As such aerospace wouldn't be affected by h1 because of ITER .

I think the greatest downside of it-vity is the destruction of core engineering disciplines.

[A_Gupta]

The usual comeback for this data is that the job that's going for $149,000 in that list would otherwise have paid $249,000 in the absence of additional labor supply.

That is equal to the extra 100,000 per year that Lutnick said standing in front of Trump in the Oval Office.

One question is would the job even exist? This is like iPhone manufacture in the US - would it even be a viable product? Likely not.

If $100K once makes H1-B labor not viable then so much more $100K per year.

[pravula]

100k signon bonus/RSU/Annual award/Performance Bonus is not uncommon in the bay area. That is not part of LCA either, so nothing will stop these companies from reducing comp to equalize. As long as they do not link to H1B fees, which would be illegal.

[A_Gupta]

US corn farmers in big trouble:
https://ncga.com/stay-informed/media/th ... ies-part-1

[Jay]

KD Harris is blaming everybody but herself in her book "107 days".

1. Democrats she calls out in her book
   • Biden
   • Newsom
   • Pritzker
   • Buttigieg
   • Josh Shapiro
   • Whitmer
   • Mark Kelly
2. Politico reports Harris' score-settling, elbow-throwing, bridge-burning memoir

   "Hiking. Will call back," wrote former VP in her notes from her calls that day, which are recounted in her campaign memoirs "107 Days". She pointedly noted in parenthesis: "He (ed: Gavin Newsom) never did"

I haven't read the book yet, but from reading the exact quotes from the book, they come across as a chronology of events as they happened, and less as blaming them. Either way, this is the kind of blunt candor that needs to come out in the open. Dems usually hide behind statement that suger coat differences and dissent and this kind of manufactured niceness is not long for today's world. If they want to show they are capable of fighting the conservative info juggernaut, they need to shed their dodginess, and display some honest self-reflection. I hope she does not contest for elections outside of California. Her national electability is toast and hope she and her supporters realize that.

[Vayutuvan]

Harris net favorable rating across all the voters
Oct 2024: -5 pts
Sep 2025: -13 pts
Among Indeps: -37 pts

Recent ABC poll.

[Vayutuvan]

Prominent Dems who were slow to endorse KD (Ferom "107 Days")

B Hossein Ombaba: "... Michelle and I supportive but not going to put a finger on the scale right now. Let Joe have his moment. Think through timing."

Plastic "designer Ice cream" Catholic Pelosi: "... it's important there's a process, we have a great bench. We should have some kind of primary, not an anointment."

"I give run for the money to Chris Christie" JB Pritzker: "As governor of Illinois, I'm the convention host. I can't commit."

Nepo-kid "I dip my hair in jar of hair gel every morning" Gave-in Noisome: "Hiking. Will call back" (who never did but did endorse KD a few days later)

[bala]

Tis hilarious Vayu!

[Mort Walker]

Gautum Mukunda, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and lecturer at Yale School of Management, breaks down what the new H-1B visa fee means for the US economy and the labor supply across various sectors.
https://youtu.be/wH5eFjqwt6Y?si=dPkCWV37icciZK6L

Enough beating a dead horse already.

That said, I have to add three anecdotal cases - non-IT - here.

1. Aerospace Engineering: Has done very well in college. one of the top 20 state unis. Graduated last year. Still searching for a job.

2. Bioengg: From one of the top 10 engg schools. 2nd gen PIO. No job for the last one year. Now applying for masters.

3. ChemEngg BS, MS in Materials/Environmental: BS from one of the top 10 engg schools, MS from a good school. 2nd gen PIO, still searching for job 10 months after graduating.

Yes. My daughter finished her MS is EE semiconductor/solid state electronics May with a 4.0. She had 2 offers & only 1 solid offer only after graduation in June. In the past she would have half dozen.

My son graduating May 2026 with BS in EE microelectronics. can’t even get interviews for internships. He has 3.8 GPA. He’s planning on an MS and PhD at University of Texas Austin, Texas A&M or UIUC.

[Cyrano]

I have a distant relative nephew who did MS Compsci from Texas State University, bright and hardworking kid with 40 lakh INR student loan. Nearly 2 years after his MS, still doing asst teaching job and if not for on campus acco he would have come back to India months ago. Can't get a job anywhere despite no lack of trying. Very sad.
If someone can help, let me know

[Mort Walker]

Cyrano,

Unfortunate. That’s in San Marcos which is south of Austin & north of San Antonio. Lots of jobs in that area, but not much hiring recently. It’s bad even for US born kids going to ranked programs.

[Jay]

Things will only get worse before they get better. In the search for profits and bottom line, companies in US have shed a lot of their R&D to outside the US entities. Earlier a lot of this middle tier tech was done in the US, but China, and other Asian countries India included is taking a lot of that work now. This is very much evident on the companies financial results and Apple & Tesla are the best example. These companies used to hire a few thousand STEM graduates every year until a few years ago and they used to dictate the technology spend. Now their Chinese business units do the bulk of the hiring. With institutional investors dictating the companies investor class, all they want is that bottom line and would not care for anything else. Only jobs that are safe in this environment are the "tip of the sphere" core tech/engineering jobs and they are only a few thousand available at any given point and these are far less than the qualified applicant pool. With all the universities funding either gutted or in limbo, along with funding for other national labs, I do not see how anyone who is not in that 99th percentile will have a solid job out of college on Day 1. For foreign students, their only option is to hop on the H1B lottery-consultancy wagon and pray to god they get on the service side of the economy and build for there. To be fair, all these are not new and the journey started right after the dot com bubble burst two decades ago and things were even more dire during 2008 recession. H1B usually bring in around 100k(including exempt) new employees into the country and a healthy eco system should be able to absorb them easily, especially an economy the size of US. This is what crony capitalistic policies do to a society, especially a society which is actively dismantling even the meager safeguard that are in place.

[Vayutuvan]

AI is sucking the oxygen from the tech sector, leave alone core engineering. I fear the expected popping of this over inflated balloon. It will not only take down the US, it might take RotW with it.

[A_Gupta]

The slow STEM hiring mirrors the situation in 1990-91. Perhaps 2000 also.

[gakakkad]

2000 was dotcom bubble . What happened in 1990 ?

[A_Gupta]

2000 was dotcom bubble . What happened in 1990 ?

There was a recession which likely cost Bush I re-election. There was the hangover of the Savings & Loan crisis, an oil price shock because of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait,

Wiki says:

"The early 1990s recession describes the period of economic downturn affecting much of the Western world in the early 1990s. The impacts of the recession contributed in part to the 1992 U.S. presidential election victory of Bill Clinton over incumbent president George H. W. Bush. The recession also included the resignation of Canadian prime minister Brian Mulroney, the reduction of active companies by 15% and unemployment up to nearly 20% in Finland, civil disturbances in the United Kingdom and the growth of discount stores in the United States and beyond.

Primary factors believed to have led to the recession include the following: restrictive monetary policy enacted by central banks, primarily in response to inflation concerns, the loss of consumer and business confidence as a result of the 1990 oil price shock,[1] the end of the Cold War and the subsequent decrease in defense spending,[2] the savings and loan crisis and a slump in office construction resulting from overbuilding during the 1980s. The US economy returned to 1980s level growth by 1993 and global GDP growth by 1994."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession

and elsewhere on Wiki, in the US:

"... it was characterized by a sluggish employment recovery, most commonly referred to as a jobless recovery. Unemployment continued to rise through June 1992, even though a positive economic growth rate had returned the previous year"

[Vayutuvan]

Tis hilarious Vayu!

bala ji, thanks.