Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Tanaji]

Forgot to add : he even mentioned Ukraine might be able to win more than its current borders

After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option. Why not? Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like "a paper tiger." When the people living in Moscow, and all of the Great Cities, Towns, and Districts all throughout Russia, find out what is really going on with this War, the fact that it's almost impossible for them to get Gasoline through the long lines that are being formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their War Economy, where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has Great Spirit, and only getting better, Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!”

[Ambar]

Yeah, a just a month ago he was saying Ukraine will have to concede territory! The truth is, it doesn't matter how much NATO supplies Ukraine, both Russia and Ukraine have the same problem - vast, wide open fields and not enough men. It is a war of attrition, Russia will try to wear out Ukraine and Ukraine will try to wear out Russia, its a game of who blinks first. My guess is in few months time the current lines will freeze and both sides will go on the defensive.

[drnayar]

FWIW

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/tru ... -ukrainian



Yes, ol’ Devious Don has shocked the world with a new “180-degree turn” on Ukraine, as expressed in his latest diatribe-as-tweet. In it, the Donald suddenly reverses course to fully back Ukraine fighting on and retaking all of its land from Russia to the 1991 borders and even beyond, as he implies Ukraine could perhaps even march on Moscow, perhaps taking a cue from Yushchenko’s latest moment of enlightenment.

Some even see this as a kind of major declaration of war against Russia, and proof that the US will now funnel every imaginable weapon, and do everything in its power to “defeat” Russia in this mother-of-all-proxies .

See US sanctions on India in this light !

[williams]

DJT is all bluster without any substance. Ukraine will get the taste of TACO very soon. What Ukraine is lacking is trained man power to operate these weapons. Sure they are showing some piecemeal brilliance in a few battles. But to take back territory you need boots on the ground and who is willing to supply that?

[drnayar]

DJT is all bluster without any substance. Ukraine will get the taste of TACO very soon. What Ukraine is lacking is trained man power to operate these weapons. Sure they are showing some piecemeal brilliance in a few battles. But to take back territory you need boots on the ground and who is willing to supply that?

I guess every one who understands the scenario knows that.
Now trump is in the Ukraine gravy train so prolong the conflict and enrich his family.

Humanity is sleep walking into a possible nuclear disaster.

[S_Madhukar]

Biden at least walked away silently in all directions while TACO runs into walls of all kinds and keeps disturbing the furniture. His country did trillion dollars forays into ME only to flatten his own economy; now he wants to try in Russia… with what crypto ? Naturally Putin will exploit this to target logistics in East Europe pretty soon. And what will TFTA Euro forces do, fly expensive jets and take cheap photos of Russians invading air space there is madness in action and there is madness in inaction

[Tanaji]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/kremlin ... _topscroll

So now the international bhikari is begging for Tomahawks from US. After a sequence of increasingly expensive weapons from ATACMS, Abrams, howitzers , Bradleys it’s the turn of Tomahawks. No doubt the strategy is to take out Russian refining capacity.

[Manish_P]

...
So now the international bhikari is begging for Tomahawks from US.
...

I suspect it is being made to look as the puppet is begging whereas it is actually the puppet master who is pulling the strings.

The US wants to destroy Russia. It just wants the world to feel as if poor, persecuted Ukraine is the one who wants that and is justified in asking for the tools to do so

Added: the same tool kit might well be tried against India in a few decades

[uddu]

Putin Threatens 'Retaliatory Measures' But Denies Plan To Attack Nato
President Putin has dismissed claims that he is planning to attack Nato members as “nonsense”, while vowing to mount a “very significant” response to an increase in European defence spending.

His comments come amid tensions with Nato over Russian drone incursions into Poland and other European countries, as well as what Estonia says was the violation of its airspace by three Russian fighter jets.

[Jay]

...
So now the international bhikari is begging for Tomahawks from US.
...

I suspect it is being made to look as the puppet is begging whereas it is actually the puppet master who is pulling the strings.

The US wants to destroy Russia. It just wants the world to feel as if poor, persecuted Ukraine is the one who wants that and is justified in asking for the tools to do so

Added: the same tool kit might well be tried against India in a few decades

To this day, I'm very puzzled how Russia did not see this as a proxy war that's serious enough to bog it down for for almost half a decade and just went into the battle expecting to finish the ukranian pest in a fortnight.

If there is any lesson for India, it is to deploy no half measures and complete the job when you get a chance and do not venture until you see a win.

[Manish_P]

To this day, I'm very puzzled how Russia did not see this as a proxy war that's serious enough to bog it down for for almost half a decade and just went into the battle expecting to finish the ukranian pest in a fortnight.
...

Russia knew it was in for the long haul. Ever since the former soviet republics that are the baltic states were added to NATO. And politicians have made 'troops will be back home by christmas' statements for ages.

If there is any lesson for India, it is to deploy no half measures and complete the job when you get a chance and do not venture until you see a win.

We have had various different types of experiences - outright wars with neighbours, border skirmishes, insurgencies. Our response, both diplomatic and military, has depended to a very large extent on the civilian leadership of the time. And it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

[Jay]

Russia knew it was in for the long haul. Ever since the former soviet republics that are the baltic states were added to NATO. And politicians have made 'troops will be back home by christmas' statements for ages.

Slight disagreement on this Manish ji. Russia and Russian strategists might have know that in the grand scheme of things their fight is with NATO. But w.r.t Ukraine and what Russia's war aims were when they launched this conflict in 2022, their entire society was un prepared for this conflict. We are in year 4 of this conflict and Russia has let UKR feel the pain to its citizens in its cities. This was unthinkable in the last 50 years.

[Tanaji]

Jay saar, I think at least a significant reason for the miscalculation could be the sheer incompetence and corruption in the Russian armed forces when the SMO was launched. We have seen multiple reports where Russian army commanders would report high percentages of troops availability and readiness when in reality it would be as low as 40%. Same would go for arms and rations availability. Russian command structure being as it is, no one would question these reports.

When they attacked initially, there were multiple reports of trucks etc breaking down or troops left with no means of forward support. They had to withdraw and Russian GHQ did not really have a plan B as they really believed the readiness reports ( again speaks badly as no one from staff hq would have inspected field formations). This apparently went all the way to Putin…

Of course later on they improved but by then the 4-6 week window for SMO had passed… and we are in this quagmire.

[Aditya_V]

The Russians initially had only 180K troops for the SMO, it was supposed to scare Ukraine and West that they were serious, Quite Naive and foolish. The West made Ukraine do some Bad faith negotiations and they Ukraine Mobilised 640K troops with almost all of Nato Artillery guns, AEW , Satellite Intelligence thrown in. Russia withdrew some areas in Apr-22, Ukraine had a good offensive in Kharkiv area and then Kherson and looked like winning in October 2022.

After that Russia had realigned its tactics, both sides have exhausted themselves a large part and now its a slow attrition warfare with Russia slowly gaining ground, Ukraine has had a lot of casualties but soo far it has not lead to any front collapsing.

Lets see I always used to think this war will end if Russia gets Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but I don't know, both sides are doubling down, US-NATO feel if they loose this they can no longer dominate the world and dictate terms, Russia looses the country will be split up.