Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[chetak]

[chetak]

[sanjaykumar]

Those are existential posts.

(Only the ? Is visible)

[sanjaykumar]

That’s better. The postmortems have begun. As they should.

[Rudradev]

Those are existential posts.

(Only the ? Is visible)

No, you just have a Socratic web browser.

[uddu]

Cross posting from IAF thread
https://x.com/FinestYew/status/1980680811751043503
@FinestYew
> unescorted night strike into enemy airspace.

What was rumour, mentioned in hushed tones in the dominion of twitter spaces is now recognised as fact.

https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/1980649902272311784
@alpha_defense
Group Capt Manish Arora | Vir Chakra

Led an unescorted night strike into enemy airspace with advanced BVR defences. Executed low-level ingress & precise strikes despite multiple air & ground threats. Attacks so intense, enemy couldn’t retaliate.

Saluting unmatched bravery!

[S_Madhukar]

Def talks has some more detail on individual pilot medals and citations - 3 of them are AF kids !
All i can say is that on the first night we conducted ops equivalent to Yankee terms of “Mig Alley” and I has visions of that movie “ Flight of the Intruder” although Vietnam was ages ago!

Even subsequent ops involved some fighter formations ingressing and dropping payloads on high value targets.
Don’t think any modern AF would take that much risk IMO although the spectre of N stupidity might have created that urgency and they delivered alright!

Some interesting titbits like having to reboot systems when subjected to jamming and yet able to do multiple missions, multiple strikes by the same pilots, swing role in the same mission stand out.

I was already sweating as I read the mission profiles…Seemed really really intense.
Bakis painted us alright but couldn’t get the win, amply seen in their cricket fielding

https://www.youtube.com/live/SUHDntcHel ... O_6kogcQMH

[uddu]

The Untold Story of India’s Operation Sindoor | Vantage with Palki Sharma
Five months after Operation Sindoor, India has honoured the brave officers who led the mission with gallantry awards. Newly released citations reveal the operation’s true scale — a high-stakes air strike deep inside Pakistan, followed by intense dogfights, precision artillery fire, and targeted drone attacks across the Line of Control. It was a show of strategy, skill, and extraordinary courage. Tonight, we revisit the story behind Operation Sindoor — and the six acts of bravery that defined one of India’s boldest military operations in recent years.

[Prem Kumar]

Some interesting titbits like having to reboot systems when subjected to jamming and yet able to do multiple missions, multiple strikes by the same pilots, swing role in the same mission stand out.

I was already sweating as I read the mission profiles…Seemed really really intense.
Bakis painted us alright but couldn’t get the win, amply seen in their cricket fielding

Indeed! Only now we get to know how nail-biting things were. Also explains why the IAF was very slow & deliberate in revealing details

But its also time for reflection: how did we get so complacent that Bakis make us sweat? We are 10X their economy and 8X their defense budget!

And its not like this hasn't happened before - they made us sweat post-Balakot too. Not enough lessons seemed to have been learnt

[Aditya_V]

And Knowing Pakis there will definitely be a next time, go for the PAF/PA/PN assets first, non uniformed Jihadis can come later

[S_Madhukar]

All i can say is that we need to buckle up against Cheeni threat … they will have 10x to throw at us and one of them will unfortunately have your name on it. Freebies for civilians should be matched by budgets for forces

[drnayar]

Pakis seem to "launched" their first "hyperspectral imaging satellite" .. wonder this can help distinguish decoys on the india side ?

[gakakkad]

I highly doubt porkistan is 410 billion dollar GDP. Look at the numbers last 5 years and how they have fluctuated . Some sialkoting there . India is atleast 15x the porkies and end of decade will become 20x + .

[Hriday]

https://x.com/hukum2082/status/19214182 ... 7TPEw&s=19

The pièce de résistance of the entire campaign emerged when Chad boys disabled Sargodha’s main runway and then mockingly flew above the airbase as PAF looked on bewildered.

The above by a person known as a military commentator with 20K followers. Mentioned @bharatrakshak in his bio. Is he a member of the forum and what is his forum name? In the award citations there is a mention of deep strike by aircrafts. Don't think flying above Sargodha is mentioned. It is his pinned post. Can anyone confirm if it happened?

[Hriday]

Do people remember that India officially stated that no Indian aircrafts crossed border during Indian strikes? Now the award citations says that IAF fighter jets conducted deep strike missions defeating the multi layered enemy SAM systems!! What is the point of these contradictions, that too on a not so sensitive topic? IAF officially denied Kirana hills strike also. Will not all these reduce the trustworthiness of IAF press statements in future?

[uddu]

PoK being Indian territory.
Official Citations Reveal Indian Air Force Heroics During Op Sindoor; Here Are The Details
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/offi ... he-details

[Vayutuvan]

Those are existential posts.
(Only the ? Is visible)

No, you just have a Socratic web browser.

or somebody who loves naasadeeya sooktam.

[sanjaykumar]

Ah yes. The Naasa Diya Sukta. Or why I choose to call myself Hindu.

[RCase]

Cross posting from TSP thread. This should also dispel the nuclear bluff.

Explosive interview with ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou.
- Discussion is a confirmation of widely suspected intuitions on BRF regarding the unholy alliance between TSP and Unkil.
- The Nobel Peace Laureate Obama's 'peaceful' activities with TSP.
- The famous #3 of Al Qaida and how OBL managed to escape from Tora Bora to safe sanctuary in TSP.
- TSPs nukes and Unkil's control on them.
- The need for Unkil to keep TSP happy by paying out millions of dollars in cash to ISI.
- Unkil expected India to strike in retaliation for Mumbai attacks and how GoI under Khangress chickened out.
- The Saudi - Unkil transactional relationship
- US narrative building in the media - how Mumbai attacks were parroted by all the networks as Al Qaida.
- The Saudi army is pretty much a Paki army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIyrvsi1nTw

[Amber G.]

*** Some feedback on 'Pak - nuclear bluff' - the theme often posted here by some ***

Cross posting from TSP thread. This should also dispel the nuclear bluff.
Explosive interview with ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou.

Thanks for posting the “Explosive interview with ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou.”
IMHO, like anything else, not everything here should be taken as gospel truth.

Particularly about 'nuclear bluff' repeated - which in some forms repeated so many times here in sometimes in really incredible narrates.

Some posts seem to suggest that my job ..

.. job to review YT...Why don't you review the YT [ ] and give your own considered transcript. Your tone looks like a preaching sermon to everyone here which is not one bit appreciated.

... is to “review [their silly] YT,” while also delivering a preaching sermon to everyone — often ending with “your conclusions are all wrong.”

That approach isn’t helpful.

I agree with Rakesh [Thanks], and I believe what I said <here *Setting the Record Straight: Operation Sindoor and Pakistan’s Nukes*> remains valid.

That’s also why some of the often-quoted and re-quoted arguments based on these shaky narratives don’t really hold up.

I hope I’m not in the minority here.

[ I may add some more later]

[RCase]

*** Some feedback on 'Pak - nuclear bluff' - the theme often posted here by some ***

Thanks for posting the “Explosive interview with ex-CIA agent John Kiriakou.”
IMHO, like anything else, not everything here should be taken as gospel truth.

Particularly about 'nuclear bluff' repeated - which in some forms repeated so many times here in sometimes in really incredible narrates.

Pretty much most of the forum members talking about nuclear weapons have never seen or worked on one firsthand. No one on the forum has insider information on Paki nukes, but are making educated guesses. Hence it is like the blind men describing the elephant!


Based on the evidence from Op Sindoor, the average person comes to the conclusion that Pakistan's frequent threats of using nuclear weapons was a failure and a bluff. That does not mean that they do not have nuclear weapons! Their bluff had been called. The reasons for their inability is up for debate. It is up to the reader to view the YT video and figure out what info to accept or reject from the interview to get a better idea of Paki nukes.

[Amber G.]

Pretty much most of the forum members talking about nuclear weapons have never seen or worked on one firsthand. No one on the forum has insider information on Paki nukes, but are making educated guesses. Hence it is like the blind men describing the elephant!

Fair point — none of us here are exactly running quality checks at Kahuta, so yes, everyone’s “analysis” is ultimately informed guesswork.

But even educated guesses need to stay anchored to physics and open-source reality — not to every dramatic “explosive” YT interview claiming secret insight.

And with respect — the “blind men and the elephant” analogy doesn’t quite fit here. This isn’t a case of blind men groping for shapes — it’s a case of people who actually understand how nuclear systems work trying to separate engineering fact from political fiction. Big difference.

Sure, TSP’s nuclear bluff has been called before — but claiming that all their nukes are cardboard props remotely controlled by “Unkil” is just swapping one tall tale for another.

So yes, do watch the interview — just don’t confuse colorful storytelling with classified data.

(Hint: Amazing how every classified program becomes clearer after watching a few YouTube videos or reading brf posts . Just one example see this brf post .. kid you not:

There is a YT on how china created atim bumb from Soviets, so many computer simulations and someone made a simple math error and the error showed them the new path[.. [and post goes on many other absurdities..

Next week we’ll learn the Manhattan Project was actually done with Japanese ball bearings and Dutch subtitles. And, yes, the legendary “math error that birthed a nuclear weapon.” (I suppose Teller, Fermi, and Sakharov just needed a few more typos in their equations to reach fusion too.)

“They couldn’t have done it” — except they did, detonated it, and the yield matched an HEU implosion design within error bars. That’s not “maya.” They confirm IAEA data and seismic networks, not YouTube transcripts. Equations tend to outvote conspiracies.)


(As for the “elephant” analogy — let’s just say some of us have actually read the anatomy manual. )

Amber G. - Seen enough elephants to know which end is which.

[gakakkad]

^ amberg , I forget the exact discussion back then but didn't we actually come up with radioisotope profile of porki device match a Pu device and not a heu device ? Wasn't it you or someone who actually came up with that back in 2000 here ?

[Amber G.]

^ amberg , I forget the exact discussion back then but didn't we actually come up with radioisotope profile of porki device match a Pu device and not a heu device ? Wasn't it you or someone who actually came up with that back in 2000 here ?

Yes, that’s right — there was a detailed analysis back then (around 2000–2001, if I recall correctly - and that analysis is still there in brf archives) that used published isotope data from air and soil samples to infer the Pu device type.

(BUT) That lined up with assessments suggesting that the 1998 Pakistani tests were at least partly “demonstration-grade” — low-yield, possibly sub-kiloton — and not consistent with the higher yields expected from a first-time HEU implosion design.

The largest of Pakistan’s 1998 tests (Chagai-I, 28 May) was most likely an HEU-based fission device.

Islamabad officially claimed five simultaneous explosions with a combined yield of 30–40 kt and even hinted at “fusion boosting.” But the seismic data told a very different story — global networks like USGS and CTBTO consistently put the total yield at around 12 kt, typical of a single successful HEU implosion device, not a multi-device or thermonuclear event.

Later, in Chagai-II (30 May), there was a second, much smaller test, which several analyses — including 'one discussed on BRF years ago' — suggested bore a plutonium isotope signature, likely from a Khushab-origin core or a component test.

So, in short:

28 May (Chagai-I) → main HEU device, ~10-12 kt (the “big one”)

30 May (Chagai-II) → small, probably Pu-based test

Both tests were politically loud but technically modest — more a demonstration of capability than a full validation series.

— Amber G. | Seismic traces don’t lie — politicians sometimes do.

[RCase]

And with respect — the “blind men and the elephant” analogy doesn’t quite fit here. This isn’t a case of blind men groping for shapes — it’s a case of people who actually understand how nuclear systems work trying to separate engineering fact from political fiction. Big difference.
...
Amber G - With due respect, I think you probably have pretty good THEORETICAL knowledge of nuclear stuff, equations etc. than most of the members on the forum. Probably there are quite a few on this forum who are quite capable of understanding the equations and how nuclear systems work. No one here has come forward to claim they have ACTUALLY worked on the engineering of nuclear weapons - their knowledge IMHO would be closer to ENGINEERING FACT. Actual engineering is where the rubber hits the road. Your inputs are valuable and form a data point for one to to draw their own conclusions.

I am not sure what you mean by political fiction. Claims of Pakistan churning out nuclear weapons like cookies per western reports are to be believed?


So yes, do watch the interview — just don’t confuse colorful storytelling with classified data.
...
The guy in the interview was probably closer to classified data than most of us on this forum. I did not consider his story as outlandish or fabricated, contrast that with 'credible high ranking' guys with access to classified data fooling the world to believe that Iraq had WMDs. As far as I am concerned, It is another data point.

“They couldn’t have done it” — except they did, detonated it, and the yield matched an HEU implosion design within error bars. That’s not “maya.” They confirm IAEA data and seismic networks, not YouTube transcripts. Equations tend to outvote conspiracies.)
...
I don't think any of us are that naive to think that Pak did not explode a device(s) and that is maya. The question is to what extent did Pak have the capability to design its own device. Could China or US have played a significant role. The US shows tremendous concern over Iran, Libya, NKo from becoming nuclear countries, but gives Pak a get out of jail card again and again and looks the other way for all the transgressions. I am not questioning the equations. However, it is still quite a conjecture of how Pak was able to put together six devices at short notice. I contrast this with Iran, which probably has a better engineering and science talent base than Pak, but still has been struggling to manufacture a device.

(As for the “elephant” analogy — let’s just say some of us have actually read the anatomy manual. )
...
Same difference between solving equations to actual engineering. Having read the anatomy manual doesn't necessarily mean one will be a good surgeon.

FYI - I understand how turbofan engines work - theory, equations and a smattering of manufacturing intricacies. Actually I had done a training stint on the MIG-21 engines, as well as worked with GE and PW engine blades. But does that make me a jet engine specialist? - No. I value the inputs of forum members who are actually working on the nuances of manufacturing jet engines that go beyond fluid dynamic and thermodynamic equations.

Amber G - most of us are trying to figure out what is fact and fiction regarding the Paki nuke story. Based on publicly available information and guesstimates all of us are trying to solve this puzzle. None of us have the inside track to come to a conclusion with absolute certainty. Just trying to connect the dots to the most plausible story.

[williams]

So Pakis having nukes is one thing. The theory that Pakis have nukes that will deter Indian response in the event of a major terrorist attack is another thing. Op Sindoor proved that this theory is no longer valid.

Further when India destroyed more than 11 major military targets in paki land, US turned hostile. So there is some American connection between what India did on may 10th-11th and the American cold war with India. There is also some evidence that Modi sarkar knew American discountenances when major PAF bases get attacked. But they did it anyway and that has created some grudge in the US admin.

Right now if you use the chess analogy, India is still playing the middle game, but some in BRF think we have come to the end game at least WRT to Pakis. US admin is saying, "not so fast" and India is saying, "we understand". This is going to be a longer game so we need to be patient. We absolutely won this round no matter what the western media wanted to portray. However there are more things in play now.

[Amber G.]

^^^@Williams: Thanks.
Here are some (outside) sources that offer evidence broadly supporting the argument you outlined.

The working paper from Stimson Center, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025”, examines what happened during Operation Sindoor (7-10 May 2025) and concludes that India demonstrated deeper strike reach into Pakistan than prior episodes.

A commentary from Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) titled “Calibrated Force: Operation Sindoor and the Future of Indian Deterrence” argues that India’s retaliation signalled a change in its deterrence posture—more willingness to strike across the border—and suggests Pakistan’s previous “deterrence through nukes” assumption was challenged.

The piece from International Centre for Counter‑Terrorism (ICCT) — “Operation Sindoor: a turning point for India in addressing terrorism in Kashmir?” — describes how India responded to the Pahalgam attack and used cross-border strikes, saying this may mark a shift in India’s approach

FWIW: "US turning hostile” or “US having an American connection / discountenance when major PAF bases were attacked” has less clear open-source documentation...They remain "plausible" — just not fully 'accepted' yet.. oh well..

[Amber G.]

..
Amber G - most of us are trying to figure out what is fact and fiction regarding the Paki nuke story. ...

Thanks for the thoughtful response. But just to clarify — my familiarity with “nuclear stuff” isn’t limited to trivial “theoretical” parlor trick or scribbling equations on a blackboard.

I’ve spent more than half a century studying nuclear physics — graduate research at IIT Kanpur in nuclear physics, and then in US.. teaching both theoretical and experimental nuclear physics (including to nuclear engineering students), and explaining Cherenkov radiation (coming out from the pool with U and Pu etc) beside an actual research reactor. I’ve also been to the Nevada Test Site, where hundreds of real explosions have taken place.

So the “blind men and the elephant” analogy is, well, a little misplaced here. ( I think the analogy is silly - perhaps written by the people who have never seen an elephant)

Some of us have seen the elephant, “dissected” it (using Meta AI glasses, CAT scans, and MRIs), and helped draw its anatomy chart.

As for the oft-repeated “no one is naive enough to think Pakistan didn’t test a device” — exactly. That’s been said so many times here it’s practically a mantra. The real question, and the one worth analyzing, is the nature and authorship of those devices — not whether the seismic networks were hallucinating.

Political fiction begins when technical ambiguity gets dressed up as diplomatic inevitability. Physics doesn’t play that game — it leaves measurable traces.

So yes, stories make for colorful commentary, but isotopes, yields, and diagnostic spectra tend to outvote interviews — however “explosive” they sound.

Let’s just say: some of us have been inside the reactor hall, not just inside the comment section.

Amber G. - prefer neutron counts over rumor counts.

[RCase]

1. The real question, and the one worth analyzing, is the nature and authorship of those devices — not whether the seismic networks were hallucinating.

2. ... but isotopes, yields, and diagnostic spectra tend to outvote interviews

Amber G. - prefer neutron counts over rumor counts.

From point 2, assuming you have access to yields, diagnostic spectra etc. how can you determine the authorship of the device in point 1?

Maybe you can draw conclusions whether it was HEU or a Pu device, whether it was a bang, sizzle or a fizzle. It does not lead to determining the lineage of the technology. The collusivity of the US or China cannot be established with neutron counts and unfortunately can only be inferred from 'rumors'. It is similar to our understanding of whether Kirana Hills was targeted due to nuclear stuff being in there and AM Bharati's cheeky response of not knowing what was in there! The official line was Kirana Hills was not hit, but we all know what to infer!

[RCase]

^^^
Sidenote: (not related to discussion topic)
>Some of us have seen the elephant, “dissected” it (using Meta AI glasses, CAT scans, and MRIs), and helped draw its anatomy chart.

Interestingly, in my current avatar, I dabble in CAT Scans, MRIs and DICOM file security. After Op Sindoor, Lt. Gen. Khandare had brought up potential of threat vectors in healthcare and critical infrastructure as asymmetric warfare strategies by State and Non-State actors. This is something that GoI should be paying more attention to.

[A_Gupta]

Has anyone actually looked up the Op Sindoor citations in the Gazette of India?

[gakakkad]

There are tons of ai generated fake citations . Can't separate the true from fake

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.i ... 210/%3famp

[Amber G.]

Top UAE commander Maj Gen Yousef, on India visit, briefed on Operation Sindoor

- Army Statement.

Commander, United Arab Emirates Land Forces, Maj Gen Yousef Maayouf Saeed Al Hallami in Delhi for an official visit...



India, UAE military to explore new avenues for collaboration, "particularly in the areas of training and capability enhancement", says India statement;

[A_Gupta]

There are tons of ai generated fake citations . Can't separate the true from fake

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.i ... 210/%3famp

After quite some search, I found this PDF on egazette.gov.in.
https://egazette.gov.in/WriteReadData/2025/266654.pdf
Put it on Google Drive:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AjgcXt ... sp=sharing

Pasting the first "VIR CHAKRA" that I found in the document:

No. 63-Pres/2025—The President is pleased to approve the award of the “Vir Chakra” to the under mentioned
personnel for the acts of gallantry in the face of enemy:—


1. IC-69077N COLONEL KOSHANK LAMBA, 302 MEDIUM REGIMENT
Colonel Koshank Lamba displayed flawless leadership and at a short notice executed first ever air mobilization of a
specialised equipment battery, thereby ensuring timely inter command induction for ‘Operation’ with utter secrecy.

The officer because of his vast experience was moved at short notice and was instrumental in carrying out acquisition
and analysis of one of the most difficult target. His technical prowess on equipment, tactical knowledge and time bound
relentless mission oriented training transformed his subunit to mission capable within five days.

Once the unit was tasked to orchestrate coordinated precision engagement of most vital terrorist infrastructure in
Northern Command, the officer demonstrated extreme courage and directed synchronized fire mission with absolute surprise
despite under enemy observation and fire.

Once the enemy retaliated with heavy bombardment, with utter disregard to personal safety, the commanding officer
kept moving from gun to gun thereby motivating his troops ensuring mission accomplishment. His resolute leadership and
bravery in the face of enemy fire resulted in destruction of multiple terrorist Camps and neutralization of a large number of
terrorists.

For displaying exceptional bravery, valour and courage under fire reflecting the traditional martial ethos of Indian
Army. Colonel Koshank Lamba is awarded “VIR CHAKRA”.

[Rakesh]

Operation Sindoor Showed The IAF’s Strength, But Also Its Blind Spots
https://swarajyamag.com/defence/operati ... lind-spots
22 Oct 2025

[Shameek]

^^ Most of this information is known but still paints a disheartening picture of missed opportunities. While we achieved amazing things in May, there are still areas where we seem to not have basics in place (SDR). The other area is waiting for 'perfect' and not going the iterative route in platforms like AEW, heavy lift and refuellers.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: President Murmu Poses With Air Force Pilot Shivangi Singh Pakistan Had Claimed To Capture!