Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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A_Gupta
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

Cyrano wrote: 15 Oct 2025 15:36 Good Gupta ji,
Keep digging with an open mind to understand and as a truth seeker. If need be, start from first principles. And you will discover very interesting things about CO2 and climate change.
I have discovered over the past decade and more that there exists no evidence that can persuade a climate change denier. There is also a set of bogus science like that invoked by RFK Jr to justify vaccine skepticism that the climate skeptic can draw upon.

Rest assured that I am not trying to persuade you or anyone. When I read something that fits on a BRF thread, I post it, it might be useful to someone.

About Hossenfelder’s video - don’t misunderstand it. For example, most people have an explanation of how an airplane wing generates lift. As SciAm explains:

…. accounts of lift exist on two separate levels of abstraction: the technical and the nontechnical. They are complementary rather than contradictory, but they differ in their aims. One exists as a strictly mathematical theory, a realm in which the analysis medium consists of equations, symbols, computer simulations and numbers. There is little, if any, serious disagreement as to what the appropriate equations or their solutions are. The objective of technical mathematical theory is to make accurate predictions and to project results that are useful to aeronautical engineers engaged in the complex business of designing aircraft.

But by themselves, equations are not explanations, and neither are their solutions. There is a second, nontechnical level of analysis that is intended to provide us with a physical, commonsense explanation of lift. The objective of the nontechnical approach is to give us an intuitive understanding of the actual forces and factors that are at work in holding an airplane aloft. This approach exists not on the level of numbers and equations but rather on the level of concepts and principles that are familiar and intelligible to nonspecialists.

It is on this second, nontechnical level where the controversies lie. Two different theories are commonly proposed to explain lift, and advocates on both sides argue their viewpoints in articles, in books and online. The problem is that each of these two nontechnical theories is correct in itself. But neither produces a complete explanation of lift, one that provides a full accounting of all the basic forces, factors and physical conditions governing aerodynamic lift, with no issues left dangling, unexplained or unknown. Does such a theory even exist?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/vide ... n-the-air/

Trying to provide non-technical explanations of the phenomena predicted by the mathematical equations of physics often fails, in that such explanation leaves something out. Intuitive physics models are guides to heuristics that the human mind can handle.

—-
Last, while an entire government of a significant country like the US being in climate change denial is serious, the situation is such that individual opinion doesn’t matter. Those affected by climate change are grappling with it, not worrying that their particular experience is “anecdotal”. And enough hew to the science that the green/renewable energy market is gaining momentum and will eventually displace the fossil fuel economy. So Xi and Modi acknowledge climate change, and the countries have policies accordingly. As does the European Union. As do most countries of note. Climate change deniers are in the pleasant position having the irrelevance of flat earthers. Mostly. In the US, they will be the cause of the US falling behind.

Even in the US, insurers are incorporating climate change modeling, without the government requiring it, because they see their “anecdotal” losses.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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The first trial of the China-Europe Arctic route completed successfully, apparently without icebreakers (see the China thread).

China tests an express route to Europe through a thawing Arctic
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-t ... te-change/
China is sending the Istanbul Bridge container ship on an 18-day trip from Ningbo-Zhoushan port — the world's largest — to Felixstowe in the U.K. on Sept. 20, accompanied by ice breakers. The goal is not a one-off voyage — that's been done before — but to establish a regular service via Russia’s Northern Sea Route linking multiple ports in Asia and Europe.

“The larger picture is that the Arctic is opening up,” said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the Arctic Institute, a Washington-based think tank that studies Arctic security. “Twenty years ago it was frozen. But now that it’s melting and something is opening up, there’s interest.”

For Humpert, the impact may be bigger than shipping schedules. “The Arctic is the first region where climate change is changing the geopolitical map. If we didn't have climate change, we wouldn't be talking. Russia would not be producing oil and gas in the Arctic. China would not be sending container ships through the Arctic.”

“It’s the first large region on the globe where climate change is rapidly and actively changing the geopolitical dynamics — because of resources, access to shipping routes, and because a new region is suddenly accessible.”
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tra ... rctic-trip
A Chinese container ship carrying the name "Istanbul Bridge" has completed a maiden journey through the Arctic to a U.K. port, state-run news agency Xinhua reported, reducing in half the usual time of transit for the electric vehicles and solar panels aboard destined for Europe.

The Istanbul Bridge's voyage, originally expected to take 18 days, was delayed by two days due to a storm off the coast of Norway, but the ship still reached Europe earlier than the 40 to 50 days it takes freighters going through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope.

The new Northern Sea Route, running entirely through Arctic waters and within Russia's exclusive economic zone, can now be navigated by ships due to global warming.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

The Arctic routes opening up are going to change dynamics in the Indian Ocean.

Chokehold on Malacca to strangle Chinese exports, Singapore as a transhipment hub, importance of Suez and even to a certain extent importance of Panama Canal for spring between West Coast and Europe will change.

Of course, declining prosperity in Western Europe will also change dynamics.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

Malacca is the chokehold for Chinese imports of oil.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by williams »

The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. We need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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williams wrote: 16 Oct 2025 08:09 The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. However we need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.
Well said. I agree. I will add more to the binary thinking that there are only two kinds of people (or three but still finite number of kinds) - those who believe in AGW and those who don't (or the third category - those who are skeptical AKA question AGW alarmists).

The scale is continuous. Prof. Freeman Dyson, one who should have gotten a Nobel in Physics, was a skeptic. I doubt any of the physicists on BRF are in the same league as Freeman Dyson.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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^^^^ The big upcoming challenge, IMO, is the European Union mandates on decarbonized manufacturing. I think the Indian timetable and the European timetable to achieve certain milestones do not match - India taking longer than the Europeans want.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by bala »

williams wrote: 16 Oct 2025 08:09 The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. We need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.
Aren't we forgetting about methane. This does more damage than C02 which is quite natural for earth to have fires and create C02 in large quantities. The C02 due to man burning gasoline/petrol/diesel/aviation kerosene etc. machinery and then there is Coal fired power plants. But vegetation absorbs C02 in a natural cycle.

Methane due to cows is quite a damper on climate change. This is not even talked about, strange.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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India's methane policy:
https://www.globalmethane.org/challenge/mnre.html
India has substantial potential to produce biogas and significantly reduce methane emissions. According to India's Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, approximately 20 percent of its anthropogenic methane emissions—81.9 MMTCO2e—come from agriculture (manure management), coal mines, municipal solid waste, and natural gas and oil systems.

To help meet this potential, the Government of India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is investing heavily in a national strategy to increase biogas production and reduce methane emissions. The biogas strategy includes many policy initiatives, capacity building, and public-private partnerships. In addition to promoting biogas development, the strategy supports goals for sustainable development, sanitation improvements, and increased generation of renewable energy.
Methane from cattle:
Methane emissions from cattle manure in India: A scenario-based comprehensive study
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9725022119
Lama, Suvha, Lakshmikanthan Periyaswami, Harish Barewar, and Reddithota J. Krupadam. "Methane emissions from cattle manure in India: A scenario-based comprehensive study." Science of The Total Environment 1002 (2025): 180571.
Abstract
Methane (CH4) from cattle manure is a major contributor to agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in India. This study presents a comprehensive, micro/district-level assessment of methane emissions from cattle manure for 2012 and 2019 using IPCC Tier 2 methodology and India-specific parameters. Emissions were spatially modelled across 698 administrative districts, revealing total emissions of 27.45 Tg CO2e/year in 2019, with notable hotspots in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. Six manure management scenarios (S1–S6) were developed to simulate technological interventions ranging from basic practices to anaerobic digestion, biogas flaring, combined heat and power (CHP) utilization, biomethane upgrading, and digestate fractionation. Scenario 4—featuring anaerobic digestion with CHP—demonstrated the highest emission reduction potential (85.65 %), while Scenario 6 offered the highest absolute carbon savings (68,646.05 Gg CO2e/year). Methane Conversion Factor (MCF) optimization from 10 % to 1 % further increased mitigation potential up to 153 %, indicating the significance of process control. However, results indicated that the current biogas infrastructure covers less than 4 % of the manure-based biogas potential in India. This study highlights the transformative potential of climate-smart manure management for methane abatement and decentralized energy production. The results offer actionable strategies to align cattle manure treatment with India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Net Zero 2070 targets through targeted investments, policy reform, and technology deployment.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Cyrano »

I'm not a vaccine sceptic, had my shots as a kid in Bharat and then recently of pfizer/moderna but I've been questioning climate change well before Trump 45, what started as an honest and curious inquiry opened so many cans of worms.... What rfk does isn't relevant here.

See, this is the problem - as soon as one starts questioning the climate change narrative, the response is irrelevant smears and innuendo.

But it doesn't really matter, believe what you want to.

On your last point about insurers, suggest you look up the works of Dr Judith Curry.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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@cyrano gaaru, you are too nice.

I also do not object to vaccines per se. But some wanted to create a mahual so that they could push high priced mRNA vaccines onto the people who were at risk of getting Covid.

Similar mindset is at work with the climate alarmists. They are being stampeded into committing to those technologies whose IP rights - both know-how and know-why - are firmly in the grip of the West.

Climate alarmists - who have too much EQ - are being played by vested interests.

AGW is real, acid rains due to NOx is real, O&G supplies are finite, Coal is polluting, Hydropower does hurt river flora and fauna, dwindling forest cover is not good for the health of the planet, non-biodegradable refuse is a problem, etc etc etc.

That said, I want these people to come up with real workable solutions rather than alienating well -wishers by othering them.

"With me or against me" like binary mindset is never going to result in good outcomes.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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I have already said, and repeat here what any individual believes (except in the US establishment) is irrelevant. Xi, Modi are on board with trying to reduce C02 emissions, as is the European Union, Japan, and whomever leads any major economy (except for the US). And market forces are taking over. So I am very thankful for your permission to think whatever I want to, my views too are irrelevant.

On Judith Curry, I don't need to be told about her, that much I can say with confidence.
FYI, this is from 11 years ago. I can't prove I read it back then, but again, that is irrelevant.
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/a ... ith-curry/
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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Over the past three decades, the sea-level of the northern Indian Ocean has been observed to rise at 3.3 millimeters per year.

This is attributed largely to the thermal expansion of water as it warms up.

This has contributed to increased tidal flooding along coastal areas of Kerala. The other factor is sand mining which has removed sand bars that restricted the access of sea water.

We are told: Once famed for Pokkali paddies, Kerala’s Ezhikkara’s fields now lie under saline water for half the year. Livelihoods of about 1 lakh people are at risk.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/xplore ... of-trouble

Of course, a large part of the disaster is man-made, though not CO2-related:
“The problem is not just sea-level rise — it’s the sum of dredging for ports, sand mining, unplanned urban expansion, and the loss of mangrove buffers,” she explains. “These anthropogenic pressures have accelerated what might have been a gradual process. In less than 20 years, a resilient wetland ecosystem has become a slow-motion disaster zone.”

The Pokkali system — a heritage farming model unique to coastal Kerala — is both an agricultural and ecological innovation. During the monsoon, farmers cultivate tall salt-tolerant rice varieties in flooded fields; after harvest, the same fields are opened to the tides for prawn and fish farming.

“It’s a dance between the moon and the monsoon,” says Vincent, who comes from a Pokkali-farming family. “The sluice gates are opened not by machines, but by the rhythm of the tides. The fields need the sea, but only in balance.”

That balance is now broken. “Salinity stays too high for too long,” says Ratheesh. “We used to get freshwater from the rivers during rains — now even that flow is blocked or delayed by upstream dams. Without that dilution, the soil has become sterile.”
Around Lakshadweep, these human problems are not present, and only the rising sea matters. It turns out coral reefs allow for reconstruction of sea-levels.
https://www.vajiraoinstitute.com/upsc-i ... -rise.aspx
The most immediate impact of anthropogenic climate change is that of rising sea-level, and this represents an existential threat to nations that are low-lying islands like the Maldives and the Lakshadweep. Traditionally, the primary instruments to track the changes in oceans have been conventional sea level data collected by tide-gauge and satellite, although as it has been recently discovered, these techniques may be inadequate to record the acceleration of oceanic sea levels in regions. Coral microatolls (disc-shaped settlings the vertical growth of which is limited by the lowest tide) provide a new, high-resolution set of proxies with which trends in historical sea-level may be reconstructed. These can be found in all tidal regions, and are able to preserve morphological variation in tidal minima over decades or centuries, as present in their growth morphology. Recent research done in Mahutigalaa reef shows that the sea level started to rise during the 1950s much before we had conventional data.
Evidence of Accelerated Sea-Level
The researchers discovered that the acceleration in sea level began in the late 1950s many decades earlier than satellite and tide-gauge measurements would indicate. Adjusted percentage change between 1930 and 1959 was modest (1-1.84 mm/year), then rising as high as 2.76-4.12 mm/year between 1960 and 1992 and 3.91-4.87 mm/year between 1990 and 2019. This progressive increase of 30 cm in 90 years is of particular concern to low-lying island systems such as Maldives and Lakshadweep.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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LOL. Now attacks will start on Bill Gates who had been the favorite of the Climate Change Alarmists.
How Bill Gates is reframing the climate change debate

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/30/bill-g ... ge-warning
Bill Gates' shift from "doomsday" climate warnings to a focus on improving human lives is triggering sharp reactions from scientists and activists.

Why it matters: As one of the world's most prominent funders of both climate and global health efforts, Gates' positioning influences the political and philanthropic center.

The big picture: In his open memo released Tuesday, Gates urged leaders to focus less on emissions targets and more on tangible improvements in human welfare — echoing his dual role leading the Gates Foundation and Breakthrough Energy.

What they're saying: Some scientists — including some of the best-known figures in the climate field — say the memo risks framing climate action as a rival to poverty alleviation.

"The content was mostly really great, but I would have framed it radically differently," says Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy.

"People often think of climate change as a separate bucket at the end of a long row of other buckets of problems we're trying to fix that are wrong in the world," Hayhoe told Axios.
This includes poverty, disease and access to clean water.
"Climate change is not a separate bucket," Hayhoe said. "The reason we care about climate change is that it's the hole in every bucket."

Between the lines: Others say Gates is highlighting an "overdue" political reality.

"Without ensuring people benefit from climate action, people won't act," says Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, in a text to Axios.
His memo, Friedmann adds, "places the emphasis on specific actions that reduce emissions, improve human welfare and preserve ecosystems."
Friction point: Critics worry Gates' message may empower those who want to weaken climate efforts.


"His words are bound to be misused by those who would like nothing more than to destroy efforts to deal with climate change," Princeton professor Michael Oppenheimer told the NYT.

The intrigue: Gates defended his stance in a CNBC interview, saying: "I'm a climate activist, but I'm also a child survival activist."
He added: "If we stop funding all vaccines and that saved you 0.1 degree, would that be a smart tradeoff?"


Context: Gates is one of the planet's richest people with a net worth of more than $100 billion, so the average person might think he has enough money to do both simultaneously. But economics 101 bolsters Gates' case.

"The fundamental proposition of economics is, you have unlimited wants and scarce resources," said Kevin Book, who leads the independent research firm ClearView Energy Partners.

"It doesn't matter how many commas you have in your net worth, that principle still applies. And it applies at the government level, too. You can't get around it."

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Cyrano »

Cyrano
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Cyrano »

COP30 and the unraveling of climate scams begins :rotfl:

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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German Far-Right Influencer Seeks U.S. Asylum Over Political Persecution
https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en ... MMV2BBSKA/
Seibt is a supporter of the far-right German party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and a conservative influencer with over 450,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and 110,000 subscribers on YouTube. After Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution designated AfD as an extremist group, she moved to the U.S. Born in 2000, she is often contrasted with Greta Thunberg, a Swedish climate activist of the same age.

Seibt has expanded her support base in the U.S. by directly refuting climate change warnings. She criticized climate change arguments as "cowardly and inhumane ideology" and claimed scientists exaggerated carbon emissions’ impact on the climate, targeting Thunberg by accusing her of "spreading panic and fear." In 2020, she also spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C.

Regarding her asylum application, Seibt explained, "I received death threats from antifa but the police did not protect me. Returning to Germany would endanger my life." According to her claims, she is the first German to apply for political asylum under the Trump administration, and her application has been officially accepted.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Vayutuvan »

About The Chosun Ilbo, the newspaper of record of SoKo, from the Wikipedia page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chosun_Ilbo
On 6 April 2019, Deutsche Welle described The Chosun Ilbo as "an outlet notorious for its dubious and politically motivated" reporting on North Korea.
:mrgreen:

We all know how biased DW reportage on India is. :P
In 2002, the prosecution sought a sentence of seven years in prison and a fine of 12 billion won for The Chosun Ilbo chairman Bang Sang-hoon, who was indicted on charges of tax evasion and embezzlement. Chairman Bang was accused of evading 6.2 billion won in gift and corporate taxes, as well as embezzling 4.5 billion won in company funds. He was arrested in August of the previous year but was released on bail and has been on trial since. On June 29, 2006, he was indicted for evading 2.35 billion won in gift taxes by transferring 65,000 shares of The Chosun Ilbo to his son through a nominal trust, and for misusing 2.57 billion won in company funds under the names of family members to increase capital in affiliates like Jogwang Publishing and Sports Chosun. The Supreme Court sentenced Chairman Bang to three years in prison with a four-year suspended sentence and a fine of 2.5 billion won for tax evasion and the misappropriation of company funds.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

This is a GoI press release:
First block level climate vulnerability assessment in Meghalaya shows 25 blocks in high or very high vulnerability categories
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... g=3&lang=1
According to a new study 25 out of 39 Community & Rural Development (C&RD) Blocks in Meghalaya fall under the high or very high climate vulnerability categories.

The Climate Change Programme under CEST Division of the Department of Science and Technology has established State Climate Change Cells (SCCCs) in 30 States/UTs of the country for better coherence on climate actions between Centre and States, and among States. The Meghalaya Climate Change Centre (MCCC), Government of Meghalaya is one of the important components under the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) under the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC).

Climate change poses severe threats to both natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems, particularly in fragile regions such as the Indian Himalayas.

Recognizing this, the Meghalaya Climate Change Centre (MCCC) has conducted a comprehensive block-level climate vulnerability assessment covering the 39 Community & Rural Development (C&RD) Blocks of the State under NMSHE. The study adopts a common national framework to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators through a tiered, top-down approach.

Image
Fig 1: Map showing Blocks category based on the Integrated Vulnerability Assessment.

The assessment which reveals high or very high climate vulnerability 25 out of 39 C&RD Blocks shows that major contributing factors include limited access to institutional credit, low household incomes, inadequate public health and nutrition infrastructure, such as Anganwadi Centres and scarce forest resources and low irrigation coverage.

These indicators highlight areas requiring targeted policy attention to enhance adaptive capacity and promote climate-resilient livelihoods.

The research provides actionable insights for policymakers, especially those engaged in climate resilience planning, rural development, and socio-economic equity. By revealing local-level vulnerabilities that district-level assessments may overlook, this study enables location-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to Meghalaya’s diverse terrain and communities.

....
Lynrah, M.M., Lyngdoh, V., Wahlang, E. et al. Integrated climate vulnerability assessment of Meghalaya at block level. Discov Sustain 6, 633 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01500-6
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Amber G. »

^^ A useful reminder that climate risk isn’t uniform—Meghalaya’s block-level mapping shows where support and adaptation must be targeted..This study gives policymakers the granular data they need.
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BP scraps plans for Teesside hydrogen and carbon capture scheme
Move by oil major paves way for data centre at former steel site in northern England

https://www.ft.com/content/6d3bc630-bb0 ... 4e18c8fd32

This is supposed to be Europe's largest Blue Hydrogen plant. But demand for H produced from NG in a low-carbon way is low due to high costs of such H. IBP dropping out of the project is termed a blow to the UK's efforts to jumpstart the production of "blue Hydrogen".
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Amber G. »

For those who are interested-
BP’s exit from Europe’s largest planned blue-hydrogen project highlights the weak economics of producing hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture, and this actually reinforces India’s current strategy rather than undermining it. India’s hydrogen roadmap is anchored in green hydrogen, where falling renewable-energy costs give it a natural advantage, and dependence on expensive CCS was never central to its plans. The Teesside setback mainly shows that blue hydrogen still struggles with high costs and low demand globally—confirming that India’s direct-to-green approach remains the more resilient and future-proof pathway.

In short - It has little direct impact on India, since India’s hydrogen roadmap is already centered on green hydrogen; if anything, BP’s move simply confirms that skipping costly blue-hydrogen+CCS and doubling down on renewables is the right long-term path.
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Post by Vayutuvan »

For those who are interested:

Hydrogen from Biogas is C neutral. H from LNG is not as green as H from Biogas.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Vayutuvan »

10 Hydrogen Stocks to watch in September 2025

https://drivinghydrogen.com/2025/09/05/ ... mber-2025/
Final Thoughts
Hydrogen stocks September 2025 show a familiar split: the industrial giants such as Air Products, Linde and ExxonMobil hold steady with long-term projects, while pure-play innovators like Plug, Ballard, ITM and Nel face sharper volatility. Bloom Energy continues to ride the wave of data-centre demand, and Ceres Power builds momentum with its licensing model.

For investors, it’s a classic mix of reliable infrastructure names and high-risk, high-reward plays. The sector remains unpredictable but undeniably central to the energy transition story.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Amber G. »

Hydrogen from biogas is indeed cleaner than hydrogen from LNG — but that doesn’t change the main point here: India’s strategy isn’t relying on either. The Teesside setback is about the economics of blue hydrogen, while India is already prioritizing green hydrogen (and some bio-H₂ where available). So the biogas point is valid, but it doesn’t alter the conclusion that BP’s exit has little bearing on India’s overall plan.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ in nuclear dhaga - see post for 5 MWth HTGR ( clean/green hydrogen)
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A_Gupta
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

This is a GoI press release. Quite long detailing govt efforts, I'm just quoting the first paragraph:
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: RISING THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... g=3&lang=1
The Government has taken due note of the climate change across the country. The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, through its Climate Change report titled "Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/ ... -15-4327-2)" has assessed the impact of climate change across the country. Since the middle of the twentieth century, India has witnessed a rise in average temperature; a decrease in monsoon precipitation; a rise in extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and a rise in sea levels; and an increase in the intensity of severe cyclones. The soil degradation and groundwater depletion is emerging as one of the most serious environmental and socio-economic challenges.
Cyrano
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Cyrano »

Really?! I was thinking that India has had a fantastic run of normal to above normal monsoons with rare nearly normal rainfall for at least the past 30 years. Sea level rise in India? By how many mm per year/decade? All the beach shacks in Goa seem to be doing fine ;)

I do think summers are getting hotter, but the days of devastating cyclones are behind us with better weather forecast and preparation leading to lesser damage to lives and property.

Drought is hard to comprehend since our food grain production is setting records and breaking them regularly.

soil degradation and groundwater depletion are also due to climate change now?! Why not add earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and eclipses to the list while we are at it?!

Oh well, it's like going to an astrologer and asking for future reading. If he says everything will be fine, then you will not need him anymore.

Thanks for the link, will try to read the 'report'
Last edited by Cyrano on 25 Dec 2025 19:28, edited 1 time in total.
Cyrano
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Cyrano »

Oh wait, the link says
Presents a synthesis of historical and future projected changes in the global and regional climate over the India subcontinent - based on scientific literature, observations, climate model projections and published IPCC reports
I really wish in this report we have our own 'observations' with reliable and accurate data.

The rest of it seems like a rehash of prevalent western literature, hope that these guys haven't just chatgp'd the whole thing.

Further comments after reading the report.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Vayutuvan »

Viewpoint: The Green Hydrogen Reset
Energy11th December 2025
Article by Tom Baxter CEng FIChemE

https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/fea ... gen-reset/
A FEW years ago, hydrogen was heralded as the silver bullet for net zero – a clean, flexible fuel that could power homes, vehicles and industry alike. Governments poured billions into pilot projects and energy majors raced to announce electrolyser capacity across Europe, Australia and the US.

Now, the tide has turned. A string of flagship green hydrogen projects have been cancelled, postponed or scaled back as costs soar and demand falters. bp’s HyGreen Teesside, Air Products’ Immingham plant and Statkraft’s European hydrogen programme were among those shelved in 2024–25. The economics simply don’t add up.
[table]

From hype to hard reality

Green hydrogen remains a costly commodity, limiting its use for heat and power. As the commercial realities of production have become clearer, its application range has narrowed significantly. The vision of hydrogen as a universal replacement for fossil fuels has shifted toward a more strategic role. Today, energy commentators propose green hydrogen primarily for:

- industrial processes such as steelmaking, ammonia synthesis and refining
- transportation, particularly heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), aviation and shipping
- grid balancing and seasonal energy storage

The UK’s Climate Change Committee reached a similar conclusion in its Seventh Carbon Budget, finding no role for hydrogen in heating buildings and only a niche role in surface transport.¹

Why projects are stalling

To be commercially viable, green hydrogen must be produced at a competitive cost. Figure 1 shows a typical percentage breakdown of levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for a green electrolyser. It is evident that the LCOH is dominated by electricity, with the stack and balance of plant (BoP) contributing similar proportions of CAPEX. To assess commercial viability, I modelled a 100 MW green hydrogen plant using industry-standard assumptions:

Electrolyser efficiency: 75%
Electrolyser CAPEX: £1,000/kW
OPEX: 5% CAPEX
Electricity: £60/MWh
Utilisation: 20% (based upon use of curtailed renewables)
Discount factor: 8%
Plant life: 20 years
...
Why hydrogen won’t follow the wind and solar cost curve

Many advocates suggest that green hydrogen will follow the same cost trajectory as wind and solar under Wright’s Law, where costs fall with cumulative production. The comparison is flawed.

Solar and wind harvest free energy; green hydrogen converts it. The bulk of the LCOH is the purchase of electricity. Future electricity costs may fall but not to the extent that it will mean that green hydrogen will follow the solar and wind cost trajectory. Also, the BoP is made up from a well-established supply chain of mechanical and electrical equipment. Costs here will not follow Wright’s Law.

While there will be reductions in electrolyser cost and improved electrolyser efficiency, the electrolyser is only approximately 20% of the LCOH. Hence, improvements here will not have a significant impact on LCOH.

Where hydrogen still makes sense

Green hydrogen is an expensive chemical and will remain so compared to other fuels. Its use will mainly be limited to sectors where there are no other alternatives.

According to the Hydrogen Council’s Global Hydrogen Compass 2025,2 most investment advancing to final decision targets sectors that require hydrogen’s molecular rather than combustive properties – steelmaking, ammonia, refining and chemicals. Figure 6 is extracted from the report.

Heat and power remain marginal use cases. Green hydrogen is, and will remain, a specialist chemical feedstock rather than a broad energy carrier.
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/earth ... l-moisture
A new study published in Science reveals a dramatic shift in the Earth’s axis since the early 2000s – amounting to a wobble of about 45 cm – was not caused by changes in the core, ice loss or glacial rebound, but by a massive and previously underappreciated loss of soil moisture across the planet.

In just three years, from 2000 to 2002, the world lost over 1,600 gigatonnes of water from its soils – more than the mass of Greenland’s ice loss over a much longer period.

And once that water drained into the oceans, it left a mark on the planet’s balance so distinct, it nudged Earth’s spin.

“There was a period of several years in the early 2000s where there seemed to be a big loss of water from the continents as predicted by a particular climate model,” Prof Clark Wilson, a geophysicist at the University of Texas at Austin and co-author of the study, tells BBC Science Focus.

“The question is: Was this real? Now we know the answer because we have independent measurements that are consistent with it.”
A_Gupta
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^^^
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq6529

Abstract

Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures have caused substantial changes in terrestrial water circulation and land surface water fluxes, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, potentially leading to abrupt shifts in terrestrial water storage. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product reveals a sharp depletion during the early 21st century. During the period 2000 to 2002, soil moisture declined by approximately 1614 gigatonnes, much larger than Greenland’s ice loss of about 900 gigatonnes (2002–2006). From 2003 to 2016, SM depletion continued, with an additional 1009-gigatonne loss. This depletion is supported by two independent observations of global mean sea level rise (~4.4 millimeters) and Earth’s pole shift (~45 centimeters). Precipitation deficits and stable evapotranspiration likely caused this decline, and SM has not recovered as of 2021, with future recovery unlikely under present climate conditions.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Vayutuvan »

That is an interesting and important measurement. How would we stop first and then reverse it? Stopping itself seems to be an impossible task. Do we even have good-enough metrology instruments and technical tools to work at planetary scale?
A_Gupta
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product may be improved upon by the NISAR mission (the NISAR mission is discussed in the Space thread; it is a ISRO-NASA project).

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9957057
"In preparation for the NISAR mission soil moisture algorithm, this study performs the validation of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5-Land volumetric soil water (soil moisture) layer product with in situ measurements from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) core validation sites (CVS) for 2015–2021. The ERA5-Land soil water layer was also compared against the SMAP-enhanced radiometer soil moisture product (gridded at 9 km) to a global extent."
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by Amber G. »

Viewpoint: The Green Hydrogen Reset
Energy11th December 2025
Article by Tom Baxter CEng FIChemE
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/fea ... gen-reset/
From AI:
If I put on a technical-journal reviewer hat (not op-ed / magazine), I’d grade it very low.

My score (technical rigor scale 0–10) ≈ 2.5 / 10

And that’s being generous because:
the author understands the engineering landscape
some directional conclusions are sensible

But as a technical publication, it fails badly on rigor.

How I’d break that score down
1. Technical accuracy (5/10)

No obvious physics errors
Correct qualitative understanding of electrolysis, efficiency limits, etc.
This is the only strong part.

2. Scientific method / evidence (2/10)
This is where it collapses.
Sweeping statements framed as inevitabilities:
“will remain expensive”
“will remain marginal”
Invokes “Wright’s Law” as if it were a law, then discards it without analysis

No:
equations
ranges
sensitivity analysis
scenario bounds
region-specific modelling

For a technical journal, this is not acceptable.

3. Use of data (1/10)

Almost no quantitative backing
No tables, no curves, no assumptions
Project failures cited anecdotally, not statistically
This is commentary, not analysis.

4. Logical consistency (2.5/10)

Learning curves accepted for wind/solar, rejected for hydrogen — without justification
Mechanical/electrical complexity used as a hand-wave argument
European conditions implicitly universalised

5. Relevance outside Europe (2/10)
India, China, MENA contexts essentially ignored
Electricity price assumptions clearly Eurocentric
Grid architecture differences not acknowledged
For a global technical readership, that’s a serious flaw.

Would I recommend publication?

No — not without major revision.

What kind of revision? Not cosmetic. Structural.

At minimum, it would need:
Explicit assumptions (electricity price, capacity factor, capex)
Quantitative bounds (best / worst / median cases)

Clear separation of:
physics limits
current economics
speculative outlook
Removal of deterministic language (“will remain…”) or replacement with conditional statements.

Until then, it belongs in: an opinion column, or a policy commentary blog—not a technical journal.
Final, blunt verdict
I’d mark it as opinion masquerading as analysis
I’d give it 2.5/10

And I’d not recommend acceptance without major revision
I would agree with that.
A_Gupta
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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Post by A_Gupta »

In the search for Indian data:
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energ ... 257059.ece
A detailed study conducted by eight scientists of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), including its Director General Mangi Lal Jat, has found that the unscientific use of fertilisers and climate change are contributing to degradation of organic carbon in arable areas of the country.

The study, primarily coordinated by the ICAR’s Indian Institute of Soil Science in Bhopal, has used 254,236 soil samples of 620 districts covering 29 States to reach the conclusions. A research paper based on the six-year-long study started in 2017 has been published now in the England-based international research journal ‘Land Degradation & Development.’
Posting it in this thread for this:
Mr. Shukla said organic soil carbon is negatively correlated with temperature.....

Climate change will have an impact on organic carbon, the study noted. Rainfall will not have a significant impact, but with the temperature, it is highly negatively correlated. “If the temperature is rising, then there are chances that soil organic carbon will decline further in future, and that will not only impact soil health, but will also impact the carbon credit and heat emission from soil. If there is more carbon in soil, then there is more heat absorption. If the carbon content is lower, then the heat absorption in the soil will be less, and there will be more heat reflection from the ground creating greenhouse gas effect. That will be dangerous,” Mr. Shukla warned.
Link:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ldr.70252
Understanding Spatial Distribution Variability of Top Soil Organic Carbon in Cultivated Soils of India as Influenced by Rainfall, Elevation and Temperature
Sanjib K. Behera, Arvind K. Shukla, Rahul Mishra, Vimal Shukla, Salwinder S. Dhaliwal, Cherukumalli Srinivasa Rao, Amaresh K. Nayak, Mangi L. Jat
First published: 06 November 2025 https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70252 VIEW METRICS
Funding: This work was supported by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research.
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