Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[A_Gupta]

When you are changing the meaning of a historical term, you have to explain, and keep explaining.

Let me give an example of the shifting meaning:

1. 1905 Swadeshi - throw your iPhone into the bonfire of foreign goods on your street, and don't buy any more.
2. 1947 Swadeshi - iPhone is banned, use instead the product of the Electronics Corporation of India Limited.
3. 2025 Swadeshi - build the iPhone in India for domestic use and for export.

Note that under meanings (1.) and (2.), the foreign investment which results in (3.) won't happen, if the foreign investor looks at the historical meaning.

---
Further, the iPhone in India itself is made of many imported parts. The 2025 Swadeshi is - start making those parts domestically as well.

[A_Gupta]

Govt press release
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=2192463

Government Makes the Four Labour Codes effective to Simplify and Streamline Labour Laws


Four Labour Codes Herald Transformational Change: Better Wages, Safety, Social Security & Enhanced Welfare for India’s Workforce

Codes lay the foundation for a protected, future-ready workforce and resilient industries, boosting employment and driving labour reforms for Aatmanirbhar Bharat

Code aligns India’s labour ecosystem with global standards, ensuring social justice for all workers

Posted On: 21 NOV 2025 3:00PM by PIB Delhi

In a historic decision, the Government of India has announced that the four Labour Codes - the Code on Wages, 2019, the Industrial Relations Code, 2020, the Code on Social Security, 2020 and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020 are being made effective from 21st November 2025, rationalising 29 existing labour laws.

By modernising labour regulations, enhancing workers' welfare and aligning the labour ecosystem with the evolving world of work, this landmark move lays the foundation for a future-ready workforce and stronger, resilient industries driving labour reforms for Aatmanirbhar Bharat.

Many of India’s labour laws were framed in the pre-Independence and early post-Independence era (1930s–1950s), at a time when the economy and world of work were fundamentally different. While most major economies have updated and consolidated their labour regulations in recent decades, India continued to operate under fragmented, complex and in several parts outdated provisions spread across 29 Central labour laws. These restrictive frameworks struggled to keep pace with changing economic realities and evolving forms of employment, creating uncertainty and increasing compliance burden for both workers and industry.

The implementation of the four Labour Codes addresses this long-pending need to move beyond colonial-era structures and align with modern global trends. Together, these Codes empower both workers and enterprises, building a workforce that is protected, productive and aligned with the evolving world of work — paving the way for a more resilient, competitive and self-reliant nation.

[Suraj]

Make In India is not an autarkic policy. It's a mercantilist approach. The problem is that mercantilism has been deemed evil because it espouses a zero sum mindset, and that's a trade policy you don't want to be shouting loudly about. Instead they wrapped it up in the nicely ambiguous swadeshi sounding Make In India. The problem is that it's led to also confusing Indians themselves.The goal is still fundamentally to drive up exports and drive down imports.In that regard it could not be more different from autarky, which fundamentally treats trade itself with suspicion.

[gakakkad]

^ would you say prc has been a mercantilist economy last few decades ? Because its one of the most export driven economy out there.

[Suraj]

Oh yes and they've been exemplary at the copy-learn-scale approach to mercantilism. Something we ought to do, including particularly by grabbing their technology by any and all means possible.

[uddu]

Harvard Economist Tracks India’s Post-Covid Growth: Mapping the Economy’s New Edge | WION
How has India’s economy changed since the Covid-19 pandemic?
A Harvard economist has mapped India’s post-2020 growth trajectory, highlighting new strengths in manufacturing, services, digital adoption, and global competitiveness.
From rising exports to a booming startup ecosystem, the report outlines how India gained a unique growth edge in the post-pandemic world

[Dilbu]

India’s new Labour Codes explained

For decades, India’s labour laws mostly resembled a messy drawer, 29 separate Acts written across different eras, each with its own definitions, authorities, thresholds, and exemptions. Too many registrations, too many inspectors, too many grey areas. Companies struggled to comply, workers struggled to access benefits, and everyone struggled to know which rule applied when.

So the government consolidated those 29 laws into four primary labour codes:

The Code on Wages,
The Industrial Relations Code,
The Code on Social Security, and
The Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSH) Code.
The idea wasn’t to reinvent the wheel. But to take a century’s worth of scattered legislation, strip out contradictions, unify definitions, reduce compliance, and extend coverage to the millions of workers who exist outside formal frameworks. The Second National Commission on Labour had suggested this years ago, and it’s finally becoming a reality because most states have finished drafting their rules.

The Wages Code consolidates laws on minimum wages, payment of wages, bonus rules, and, more importantly, defines the term ‘wages’. This definition becomes the backbone for PF, gratuity (the lump sum your employer gives you as a thank you for long-term service), and social security contributions.

Next, the Industrial Relations Code governs hiring, firing, layoffs, strikes, and dispute resolution. The focus is on improving labour flexibility while retaining safeguards for any disputes.

The Social Security Code tries to stitch together PF, ESIC (a government-run health insurance scheme for salaried workers earning up to ₹21,000 a month), maternity benefits, gratuity, gig worker welfare, and more under one umbrella. It formally recognises gig and platform workers for the very first time.

And finally, the OSH Code merges laws on safety, working conditions, contract labour, holidays, and health standards into a single playbook across industries.

For employers, the new codes are supposed to make compliance cheaper and more predictable. The headline change is in the Industrial Relations Code: firms with up to 300 workers (up from 100 previously) can now lay off, retrench, or close operations without seeking prior government approval. This is meant to boost manufacturing appetite, help firms scale faster, and reduce the fear of adding permanent headcount. But unions see the exact change as a weakening of job security and a shift of bargaining power away from workers, and toward companies.

Apart from this, another change is that gig and platform workers are finally included in India’s legal framework through the Social Security Code. On paper, this is historic. Aggregators must contribute a portion of revenue towards gig-worker welfare funds. But timelines, contribution formulas, and enforcement mechanisms remain fuzzy.

And then comes the salary question, the one employees care about most.

The most significant shift comes from the new definition of wages (or salary). The simple change is that allowances cannot exceed 50% of total compensation. So your basic pay now has to form at least half of your salary structure. Since PF and gratuity are calculated on basic pay, a higher basic means higher PF contributions.

That’s good news for your retirement fund. But it may reduce your monthly take-home.

India’s new labour codes promise a cleaner, more modern labour framework. If implemented well, employers could get more straightforward rules, workers could get stronger safety nets, and gig workers could finally get formal rights.

But the trade-offs are real — lower take-home pay for many salaried employees, reduced job protection in some sectors, and uncertainty until every state actually enacts these codes.

Think of these reforms not as a magic fix, but as an attempt to reboot a century-old system for a new economy. Whether they become a milestone or a missed opportunity depends entirely on execution.

Until then… Everyone, employers, workers, and gig platforms, will be watching the fine print closely.

[ShauryaT]

Some thoughts on the new labor code reforms. First a huge congratulations to finally bring these reforms and get it passed.

• The consolidations, common definitions, single registration, electronic use, single compliance, removing arbitrary inspector raj, decriminalizing of compliance violations are all a very welcome step towards streamlining and removing the harassment factor for employers.
• The increase to 300 from 100 for "at will" employment is welcome but not adequate to scale. Ideally, if should be to 1000's and even then the protections for government "approval" should step in only if the terminations are for say over 10% of employee count in a year. Business need to adapt quickly and really this provision should apply only to a fraction of the companies and terminations at scale that disturb an industry or region.
• The codes still try to treat contractors as employees with benefits. With fixed periods. I guess most will make the period the minimum possible and renew, instead of locking into long periods.
• The new 50% rule, takes the approach of "safety nets" to take precedence over individual managed finances. Would have much preferred the other way around, where these mandatory savings in EPF/PF and Gratuities are reduced and more freedoms given to individuals to invest their monies was provided - whereby the government loses its automatic financing scheme they currently have. But I guess, India does not believe in the individual as much yet and hence this approach.
• Great for women, I did not know there was a bar on them to work night shifts with some needed added safety protections.
• On balance, a step forward but still comes from a premise of distrusting the individual to manage their own finances (quite frankly hides true intent of government access to those retirement funds) and does not address the issues to scale and dynamism challenges of industry.

[uddu]

Why Nigeria's Dangote Group Is Betting Big On India | Africa's Richest Man Aliko Dangote Speaks
In this interview with Riddhima Bhatnagar of Business Today, Aliko Dangote Founder, President of Dangote Group and Africa’s richest industrialist breaks down why India has become an indispensable partner in his next wave of mega industrial projects for Dangote industries.

Dangote explains how Indian companies have supported his growth for over two decades, especially in refining, petrochemicals and fertilizers. He highlights the engineering and fabrication excellence of firms like Engineers India Ltd (EIL), which successfully delivered key components of the refinery. With his new expansion projects now underway, he reveals India is positioned to receive over $5 billion in orders for equipment, fabrication, steel structures and shipping over the next 18–20 months creating substantial opportunities and jobs.

Dangote also elaborates on his decision to expand his refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day, making it one of the world’s most efficient refining hubs. With Africa still reliant on imported gasoline and diesel, he outlines how the expanded facility will secure supply within the continent while also serving global jet fuel markets across Europe, the US and Latin America.

On fertilizers, he discusses the scale-up from 3 million to 12 million tons, aimed at transforming agricultural productivity in Africa by ensuring timely, reliable availability. India, being one of the largest importers of urea, is a key export target due to short sailing times and cost competitiveness.

Importantly, Dangote addresses geopolitical and market risks from financing challenges to global trade barriers. He explains why his diversification across Africa, competitive pricing and strong product quality make the Dangote Group resilient to such disruptions, noting that fertilizer duties imposed earlier by the US have now been withdrawn after farmer pushback.

Looking ahead, he confirms growing interest in data centres, mining and other natural-resource-driven sectors, emphasising that India and Africa are evolving from trading partners to active co-creators of industrial capacity and economic growth.

[uddu]

India's GDP Grows 8.2% In Q2, Fastest In Six Quarters
India's economy expanded by 8.2% in the July-September quarter of the current financial year, the fastest growth in six quarter. The Bloomberg estimate was 7.4%. The GDP print in September quarter is far higher than 5.6% during Q2 of FY25 and 7.8% in the June quarter, as per data released Ministry of Statistics on Friday.


Q2 GDP Growth At 8.2%, Fastest in 18 Months | India GDP | India's economic Growth
India’s economy grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, surpassing the CNBC-TV18 poll forecast of 7.4%. This growth compares with 5.6% in the same quarter last year (YoY) and 7.8% in the previous quarter (QoQ).
The country’s Gross Value Added (GVA) rose 8.1%, up from 5.8% YoY and 7.6% QoQ, indicating broad-based activity across sectors.
Nominal GDP growth stood at 8.7%, higher than the 8% poll estimate, with YoY and QoQ growth of 8.3% and 8.8% respectively.
India's Q2 FY26 GDP surges 8.2% — beating CNBC-TV18's 7.4% estimate and marking the fastest growth in 18 months, driven by industrial strength (9.1% manufacturing) and govt capex.​
Latha Venkatesh breaks down the data: Secondary sector +8.1%, services +9.2%, agriculture +3.5% — fueled by rural demand, GST cuts, and exports amid global tariffs. FY26 outlook brightens for RBI policy, stocks, and wallets.​



One of an interesting comment for the video.

@vishalpatidar7279
1 hour ago
For this all gentlemen GDP growth higher than their prediction so they are not happy otherwise they would have jumped from table on this GDP growth

[uddu]

Rupee continues to trade below 89/$ level; weak dollar fails to lift sentiment
https://www.financialexpress.com/market ... t-4058740/
Rupee trades below 89/$ as importer demand and weak exporter flows weigh; check the latest currency updates now.
Written by Reuters

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in heavily at the beginning of the week in a bid to break the cycle of weakness that threatened to deepen after last week’s breakdown. Its intervention briefly lifted the rupee back through the 89 handle, offering a short-lived reprieve. The relief, however, faded with persistent dollar demand from importers, hesitant exporter hedging and lacklustre portfolio flows eroding much of the RBI-spurred recovery.

India to touch $5 Trillion Economy A Year Later than Expectations | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G
India’s ambition to become a $5 trillion economy by 2028 has hit a speed bump. According to the IMF, the goal will now be achieved in 2029. U.S. tariffs—currently at 50% on some Indian exports are impacting labour-intensive sectors like textiles and jewellery are already seeing export declines, and last month, the trade deficit hit a record high. India disputes the IMF’s timeline, calling it “conservative,” and says a trade deal with the U.S. is within reach. Despite the setback, India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy, supported by reforms, digital infrastructure, and macroeconomic resilience. But risks like a weakening rupee and global shocks persist.

[uddu]

Debate With Arnab: Indian Economy Outpaces World With Massive 8.2% GDP Growth
Debate With Arnab: Indian Economy Outpaces World With Massive 8.2% GDP Growth

Debate With Arnab: India’s economy is roaring ahead with a remarkable 8.2% GDP growth, solidifying its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. While global powers struggle with inflation and stagnation, India’s robust performance is drawing global attention.

Tonight on Debate With Arnab LIVE, we ask: What’s driving India’s economic surge? Is this growth sustainable? And why is the world watching India’s rise with awe—and concern? Join Arnab Goswami for sharp insights and unfiltered analysis on India’s economic momentum.


S Gurumurthy's Masterclass On Rising Civilisational Nationalism & America's Shrinking Domination
S Gurumurthy's Masterclass On Rising Civilisational Nationalism & America's Shrinking Domination

S Gurumurthy, Editor of Thuglak magazine, delivers a masterclass at IES 2025 on the rise of civilisational nationalism and the diminishing dominance of America. As a prominent strategist and nationalist thinker, Gurumurthy highlights how India's deep-rooted civilisation, socio-economic resilience, and strategic vision contrast with the West's challenges, positioning India for a leading role in the evolving global order.


Piyush Goyal Lays Down Vision For Viksit Bharat And Three Critical Pillars Driving It | IES 2025
Piyush Goyal Lays Down Vision For Viksit Bharat And Three Critical Pillars Driving It | IES 2025

At Republic Media Network's India Economic Summit 2025, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, talked in detail about India's growth as a young India. Union Minister Piyush Goyal sets the stage ablaze, declaring that the extraordinary journey of Republic Media mirrors India’s own unstoppable rise under PM Modi’s visionary leadership, rooted deeply in Mahatma Gandhi’s ideals of self-reliance and integrity.

[ritesh]

In the below The Jaipur Dialogue video, why and how USD will eventually reach 100₹ in next 2-3 yrs has been discussed.

[Yogi_G]

I think the time has come for not defining our goals by $ terms anymore. Either use a PPP adjusted number or better define in INR terms. Chasing dollar tagged numbers is highly misleading!

[uddu]

India’s Growth Leap: Insights from EAC-PM Member Shamika Ravi | Ep 21 | Growth is Good
What really pulled 302 million Indians out of poverty?

In this episode of Growth is Good, Rahul Ahluwalia sits down with Dr Shamika Ravi, Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM), to unpack what the latest data actually says about poverty, growth, inequality and jobs in India.

They talk about her journey from development economist to growth thinker, why a famous ultra-poor experiment changed her mind, and why reforms in labour laws and regulation matter so much.

Chapters

00:00 – Promo
01:41 – Introduction
02:04 – 1991, college and discovering economic policy
03:11 – From “development first” to seeing the power of growth
05:31 – The ultra-poor RCT that didn’t work and what it taught
08:10 – NREGA, rising rural wages and the problem with “lab conditions”
11:21 – New poverty data: how we measure it and what’s changed
13:26 – 302 million out of poverty on the higher Rangarajan line
15:54 – Is growth inequitable? Bihar, regions and why geography matters
18:10 – Muslims, SC/ST, OBCs: what the data shows for each group
21:14 – Amenities, saturation and how basic services raise productivity
23:40 – If growth is the way, what must India fix next?
25:41 – Labour laws, minimum wages and the Mahalanobis–Nehru debate
26:56 – Why over-regulation killed jobs and pushed firms informal
27:48 – Minimum vs median wages: what fast-growing states get right
29:02 – Inequality debates, Piketty and why India isn’t the G7
29:50 – Strategic resilience: plugging into global trade without retreating
32:24 – Tariffs vs subsidies and making Indian industry competitive
35:45 – What Aatmanirbhar Bharat really means: jobs and capabilities
38:10 – Food, energy, defence and the logic of self-reliance
40:19 – Deregulation and size of the state
42:17 – Can India grow at 8–8.5%? Closing thoughts & hopes

[uddu]

Copied from Modi 3.0 thread
Shamika Ravi On How China Is Building Narrative Using Media Campaigns | Republic Economic Summit
The Republic India Economic Summit 2025 (IES) is underway, bringing together India's top policy-makers, economists, global business leaders, and innovators under one roof.
Economist & Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, Shamika Ravi, sounds the alarm on India’s fertility rate crashing at breakneck speed, faster than the country can handle, warning that young urban Indian women are simply choosing not to have children, calling it a full-blown national crisis.

[drnayar]

https://www.sciencealert.com/almost-100 ... -in-the-us

The waste left over from spent fossil fuel may contain a treasure trove of rare-earth elements worth billions of dollars.

In a 2024 paper, geologists calculated that the waste ash from coal burnt in fossil fuel power plants may contain as much as US$165 billion worth of rare earth elements – and up to $97 billion may be feasibly extractable.

But when coal is burned, something interesting happens. The combustible parts of coal, such as carbon, hydrogen, and sulfur, burn away as gases, leaving behind the non-combustible parts. That includes clay minerals, quartz, and REEs.

Because most of the coal's mass vanishes as smoke, the concentration of REEs in the glassy ash left behind is 4 to 10 times higher than in unburnt coal.

To be clear, these concentrations are much lower than commercial ores. However, refining coal ash doesn't require more extractive mining – it uses what has already been unearthed – so it would be a worthwhile endeavor.

The lanthanides that can feasibly be extracted from that accessible coal ash are worth up to $8.4 billion, the researchers determined.

However, adding yttrium and scandium to the mix skyrockets these figures to a total overall value of $165 billion, of which $97 billion is recoverable, according to the paper

[A_Gupta]

Thanks! Published in 2024:
Assessing rare earth elements in Indian coal ash using Westcott formalism in NAA and leaching studies
Materials Chemistry and Metal Fuel Cycle Group, IGCAR, Kalpakkam, India
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/article ... challenges.

https://doi.org/10.1039/D4RA04150J
Abstract

This study employs Westcott formalism coupled with the internal monostandard approach in k0-NAA to assess Rare Earth Elements (REEs) in Indian coal ash samples. This method mitigates neutron flux perturbations during irradiation and enables in situ detector efficiency calibration for quantitative analysis. Deviations in thermal capture cross-sections for non-1/v nuclides in REEs were addressed using the Westcott g(Tn)-factor obtained from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 data. REEs content in Indian coal ash was found to be 350–500 mg kg−1, aligning with global standards. Leaching feasibility for medium-lived REEs with hydrochloric acid was demonstrated, supporting effective recovery. These findings suggest Indian coal ash as a potential secondary resource for REEs amid global supply challenges.


---
Any interpreters here?

[A_Gupta]

This is a GoI press release, from July 28, 2025. I wouldn't have looked for it but for @drnayar's post.
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... g=3&lang=2

Critical Minerals in Coal Mine Waste and Coal Ash
प्रविष्टि तिथि: 28 JUL 2025 12:47PM by PIB Delhi
The coal-derived fly ash and bottom ash samples collected from Singareni Thermal Power Plant (STPP) and overburden clay samples have been analyzed for trace elements and Rare Earth Elements (REE) and results show that the total REE in fly ash and clays is about 400 ppm.

Further, overburden, lignite and fly ash samples, collected from mines and thermal power plants of NLC India Limited at Neyveli, were also analyzed for Rare Earth Element (REE) and trace elements. It was found that fly ash from thermal power plant contains a concentration of REE (2100 mg/kg) comprising of both lighter & heavier REE with Yttrium content of 300 mg/kg.

The Government has approved establishment of National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) on 29.01.2025, for the period from 2024–25 to 2030–31. Under the Mission, ₹100 crore has been allocated for pilot projects focused on recovery of critical minerals from sources such as overburden, tailings, fly ash, and red mud. Additionally, guidelines for establishing the Centre of Excellence (CoE) under NCMM have been approved on 06.04.2025.

Coal India Limited (CIL) has undertaken the following Research & Development (R&D) projects related to rare earth elements found in coal mine waste:

1.  Results from assessment of REE and other economic resources from the North Eastern Region (NER) Coalfield, indicate that total REE is low, but Heavy REE contents are relatively high.

2.  Results from appraisal of Gondwana Sediments (Coal, Clay, Shale, Sandstone) for Trace Elements & REE concentration in the Singrauli coalfield, indicate that REE are “promising” in nature (with an enrichment of ≈250 ppm on a whole coal basis in Coal Samples & ~400 ppm in Non-Coal samples). However, the economical extraction of the REE is subject to technical advancement and economy of scale.

3.  Development of indigenous technology for extraction of critical minerals, including REE, from overlying strata of North eastern coalfields has been undertaken with an objective to develop (i) enrichment technique of critical metals from non-coal strata by physical separations and (ii) extraction technique of critical metals from non-coal strata and Acid mine drainage by Ion-Exchange Resin.

The Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) has signed MoUs with Institute of Minerals and Materials Technology (IMMT), Bhubaneswar; Non-Ferrous Materials Technology Development Centre (NFTDC), Hyderabad; and IIT, Hyderabad for research in this field.

This information was given by Union Minister of Coal and Mines Shri G. Kishan Reddy in a written reply in Rajya Sabha today.

[Suraj]

The MOSPI site has been down all weekend so I couldn't check the Q2 GDP press release until now:
PRESS NOTE ON QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2025-26
High level comments:
* Continuous rising trend in quarterly GDP over five quarters now: 5.6% -> 6.4% -> 7.4% -> 7.8% -> 8.2% .
* This looks better than the prior peak in 2023-24 that saw a short acceleration and then moderation.
* Huge growth in Manufacturing GVA (Fig 2) vs prior fiscal - 9/1% vs 2.2%. Also seen in Fig 3 and Fig 4, where the half yearly view also shows a sustained acceleration.

[A_Gupta]

Why is it that when the economic performance is good, a lot of people find objections and argue that it can’t be good; but when the economic performance is mediocre, no one points out that reality could be better than reported?

I further note that while manufacturing grew by 9.x% services grew by 10.y%, which means that, per some complaints, manufacturing continues to be a shrinking part of the economy.

Lastly, someone said that if this trade issue with the US was not there, the growth would have been 2% more. By my estimate that means Rs 7 lakh crores or Rs 5,000 per Indian. That is what Trump has cost India, apart from the sight of Asim Munir’s smug face in the White House as a minerals salesman.

[Supratik]

There is an ongoing run on the dollar rupee exchange rate with the present RBI governor not aggressively defending it unlike Shaktikanta Das. This is going to mess up all calculations.

[S_Madhukar]

Oh yes and they've been exemplary at the copy-learn-scale approach to mercantilism. Something we ought to do, including particularly by grabbing their technology by any and all means possible.

They have not spared ANY American textbooks from being translated and digitised since 90s and now they do the same for MOOCs like Coursera etc … illegally of course

[A_Gupta]

There is an ongoing run on the dollar rupee exchange rate with the present RBI governor not aggressively defending it unlike Shaktikanta Das. This is going to mess up all calculations.

What are the underlying reasons?

[fanne]

Few Reason given for high GDP growth which are not repeatable

1. Front loading of many exports to US before the high tariff begun
2. GST reduction on many things boosting consumption

Good thing

1. Diversification of exports

[A_Gupta]

Morgan Stanley India says that the sales of automobiles has held up beyond the GST reduction/festival season.

[Supratik]

Underlying reasons given by economists are Trump tariffs and FPIs withdrawing 17 billion dollars from the market in 2025. But clearly RBI is not aggressively defending the currency.

[hanumadu]

Few Reason given for high GDP growth which are not repeatable

1. Front loading of many exports to US before the high tariff begun
2. GST reduction on many things boosting consumption

Good thing

1. Diversification of exports

GST reduction was effective from Sep 22 with only 8 days left in the quarter.

[hanumadu]

There is an ongoing run on the dollar rupee exchange rate with the present RBI governor not aggressively defending it unlike Shaktikanta Das. This is going to mess up all calculations.

A declining rupee will help in countering Trumps's tariffs to some extent.

[drnayar]

There is an ongoing run on the dollar rupee exchange rate with the present RBI governor not aggressively defending it unlike Shaktikanta Das. This is going to mess up all calculations.

A declining rupee will help in countering Trumps's tariffs to some extent.

there had been a similar precedent with yuan/renminbi

During the U.S.-China trade war, particularly around 2018-2019, the yuan (renminbi) depreciated against the U.S. dollar.This depreciation was generally interpreted as a response to the announced U.S. tariffs, helping to offset their impact on Chinese exports.While market forces played a role, Chinese policymakers engineered a gradual and orderly depreciation rather than a rapid, sharp one, to avoid negative side effects like massive capital outflows and a loss of consumer confidence.
China was officially named a currency manipulator by the U.S. in August 2019, a label lifted in early 2020 after an agreement not to engage in competitive devaluation

[Supratik]

Also India is facing low inflation and deflatationary pressures especially since the GST cuts. This maybe to counter that as currency depreciation leads to inflation. To me most of it looks like a short time effect. They should speed up the Indo-US trade deal.

[uddu]

Ain't it that when Baseline is updated, new products and services get added and GDP Numbers also get revised upwards?
In Parliament, FM Nirmala Sitharaman Sets Record Straight On India's GDP Data
Parliament | Lok Sabha | Nirmala Sitharaman

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman set the record straight amid the debate over the quality of India’s national income accounts. This after the opposition questioned the ‘C’ rating assigned by the IMF, which the finance minister says reflects the use of the 2011-12 base year for GDP estimation rather than any broader data shortcomings. A new base year will be adopted from 27 February 2026, she added.

IMF did not question India’s growth figures, Sitharaman said, adding that there is “no misleading data”.

[uddu]

Fitch raises India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% on increased consumer spending, GST reforms
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/eco ... 2025-12-04

Fitch stated in its Global Economic Outlook report for December, "Growth will ease over the remainder of the financial year 2025-26 (to end-March), but we have raised our full-year growth forecast to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent in September.”

The ratings agency highlighted that falling inflation, which reached an all-time low of 0.3 per cent in October due to lower food and drink prices, allowed the RBI to consider an additional policy rate cut. The agency signalled that falling inflation will give the RBI additional room to adjust monetary policy, and noted robust economic performance in the most recent quarter.

Fitch stated, "We expect falling inflation should give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) room for one more policy rate cut in December to 5.25 per cent, following 100bp of cuts in 2025 so far, and a series of reductions in the cash reserve ratio (from 4 per cent to 3 per cent)."

Fitch added, "With core inflation recovering and activity projected to remain strong, Fitch said that it expects the RBI to have reached the end of its easing cycle, and that rates will remain at 5.25 per cent over the next two years."