https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1997 ... 92433?s=20 ---> AUKUS: The billlion-Dollar Trap?
Next week I’ll publish a deep-dive article showing how the Australians (and others) got themselves into one of the biggest defense money pits in modern history with the AUKUS SSN program: total cost estimated between US$177 billion and US$244 billion over 30–35 years, with the first nuclear-powered submarines arriving only in the early 2030s and the full fleet completed sometime in the 2050s–2060s, by which time the core technology can possibly already be obsolete.
And Australia isn’t alone. India is pouring tens of billions into its own nuclear attack submarine program and risks ending up in exactly the same boat. Just a few days ago, when I wrote about the Japanese Taigei-class and lithium-ion batteries, I pointed out the real trend: within the next 5–8 years, solid-state batteries (already scaling up in China, South Korea and Japan) will allow conventional submarines of 4,500–5,500 tons to:
- stay submerged for 40–60 days
- recharge in just a few hours or use.
- cost under US$ 800 million each
- become almost impossible to detect because they never need to snorkel
But that’s only the part about the conventional subs.
China has already launched the first prototype of a hybrid submarine (Type 041 Zhou-class) that uses a micro nuclear reactor (10–15 MW thermal), weighing roughly 20-25% of a conventional SSN reactor, fully modular, easily replaceable, and with dramatically lower maintenance costs, whose sole job is to continuously charge a large battery bank. Result: solid State batteries, unlimited submerged endurance, 20–22 knots continuous, 30+ knot sprint, and unit cost in series production estimated at US$1–1.5 billion.
At least four other countries (Russia, South Korea, Japan, and Brazil) are now openly working on very similar small nuclear-conventional designs, but only the Chinese is a real hybrid model. This is no longer a one-off prototype; it’s the announced future of submarines powered by solid batteries recharged by micro reactors. The harsh reality: by the time the last Australian AUKUS submarine is delivered (around 2060), the most advanced navies will be mass-operating cheap hybrid subs, AI-guided autonomous torpedoes, underwater drone swarms, and large nuclear-powered UUVs.
Much of today’s naval doctrine, centered on a handful of ultra-expensive crewed SSNs, can look as outdated as battleships did in 1945, in just few decades. Any multi-hundred-billion-dollar defense investment today must be judged against the 2035–2045 timeline, not the 1960s playbook. Otherwise taxpayers foot the bill and the navy ends up with very expensive floating museums.