*A Quiet Storm in India: How SIR, CAA and the New IFA 2025 Are Reshaping National Security*
By *Kiran Pasunuri*
A silent but significant shift is unfolding across parts of India, especially in West Bengal. Streets appear normal, but there is growing unease beneath the surface. Many residents are suddenly leaving their homes, while others are moving toward the Bangladesh border.
The trigger is not just the recent SIR (Special Summary Revision) notices. The real concern is the deeper link between SIR and the newly implemented Immigration & Foreigners Act 2025.
SIR: A Routine Process Turning Into a Citizenship Signal
The SIR process usually handles corrections in the voter list.
This year, however, many in Bengal see it differently.
For them, SIR has become an indirect warning that their citizenship status may be reviewed.
This fear stems from the new national-level law—the Immigration & Foreigners Act (IFA) 2025.
IFA 2025: India’s Strongest Immigration Law Yet
Passed in March–April 2025 and enforced from September 1, 2025, the IFA introduces some of the toughest penalties India has ever seen for undocumented migration:
• Staying without valid passport/visa: 5 years jail + ₹5 lakh fine
• Fake documents: ₹10 lakh fine + immediate deportation
• Entry after deportation: Lifetime ban
The message is clear:
India is shutting the door on illegal immigration.
SIR + IFA: Why Panic Is Rising
In earlier years, missing from the voter list was not a major issue.
Now, missing from SIR is often interpreted as “citizenship under doubt”.
And once citizenship is questioned, IFA 2025 can apply.
This has created fear, leading to sudden disappearances and movement near border areas.
State governments have limited control. Matters related to citizenship, immigration, deportation and national security lie entirely with the central government.
CAA as a Protection Shield for Select Minorities
Communities from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan—Hindus, Sikhs, Christians and Parsis—can apply for citizenship under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).
IFA does not apply to them, providing a safety net for eligible groups.
This difference explains why some communities feel protected while others do not.
*A Larger National Strategy Unfolding*
The recent steps appear to be part of a long-term national security plan:
1. Legalising eligible minorities through CAA
2. Cracking down on illegal immigration via IFA 2025
3. Cleaning the voter list through SIR
4. Preparing for a nationwide NRC
5. Updating demographic and caste data
6. Future delimitation based on accurate population patterns
The central strategy is gradual, structured and layered.
India’s New Security Era
SIR is no longer just a voter list update.
It has become a trigger point for broader national action on citizenship and border control.
India is clearly moving into a new phase of security and demographic regulation, and not everyone is comfortable with these changes.
Elections Modi 3.0
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
VI@WA
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
India today has three relatively 'stable' categories of states. Members of these categories tend to remain in these categories because of political inertia; it will take major upheavals to move a state out of one of these categories.
Category 1- the Ganga plain heartland states (UP, MP)
Category 2- the peripheral satrapies of the heartland, which exercise some independence from political trends in the heartland at times, but eventually tend to arrive at harmony with the heartland through mutual negotiation and accommodation of existing leadership structures (Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat)
Category 3- the regional contrarian states, in which local power has traditionally stemmed from the degree of independence/divergence the leadership proclaims vis-a-vis the heartland (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Kerala)
Other states reside in the spaces between Category 1 and 2 (1.5) or between 2 and 3 (2.5). However, they are NOT stable residents of these spaces-- rather, they are always in a state of dynamic flux between the three primary categories. Maharashtra for example was trending towards Category 3, but now is trending towards Category 2. Delhi was anomalously in Category 3 during the AAP period, but now is firmly Category 2 and trending towards category 1. Karnataka and Jharkhand may be trending more towards Category 3, while Telangana, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh are tending towards Category 2.
In Category 2 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties have in general played second fiddle to the 'national opposition' party (thus far, Congress). In Category 3 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties are generally in the driver's seat with Congress either allying with them for national elections or playing a 'frenemy' role in local elections.
What we saw in Bihar was the firm transition of a Category 1.5 state (it was Category 2.5 trending 3 ten years ago!) into a Category 1 state. That's why it was so significant. The local opposition party has been reduced to a marginal player, and the national opposition party has been wiped out.
Category 1- the Ganga plain heartland states (UP, MP)
Category 2- the peripheral satrapies of the heartland, which exercise some independence from political trends in the heartland at times, but eventually tend to arrive at harmony with the heartland through mutual negotiation and accommodation of existing leadership structures (Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat)
Category 3- the regional contrarian states, in which local power has traditionally stemmed from the degree of independence/divergence the leadership proclaims vis-a-vis the heartland (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Kerala)
Other states reside in the spaces between Category 1 and 2 (1.5) or between 2 and 3 (2.5). However, they are NOT stable residents of these spaces-- rather, they are always in a state of dynamic flux between the three primary categories. Maharashtra for example was trending towards Category 3, but now is trending towards Category 2. Delhi was anomalously in Category 3 during the AAP period, but now is firmly Category 2 and trending towards category 1. Karnataka and Jharkhand may be trending more towards Category 3, while Telangana, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh are tending towards Category 2.
In Category 2 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties have in general played second fiddle to the 'national opposition' party (thus far, Congress). In Category 3 states, the local anti-BJP/NDA opposition parties are generally in the driver's seat with Congress either allying with them for national elections or playing a 'frenemy' role in local elections.
What we saw in Bihar was the firm transition of a Category 1.5 state (it was Category 2.5 trending 3 ten years ago!) into a Category 1 state. That's why it was so significant. The local opposition party has been reduced to a marginal player, and the national opposition party has been wiped out.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Tejasvi increased its vote share compared to the 2020 tally.
Whereas, NDA consolidated its votes by taking Chirag and other small allies along with them, which made the difference.
Whereas, NDA consolidated its votes by taking Chirag and other small allies along with them, which made the difference.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Well as per analysis, RJD contested more seats, 143, compared to BJP and JDU. So naturally they polled more votes.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
The so called 37.9 is for the whole of INDI Alliance. RJD has 23. While BJP has 21. JDU about 19.25. Congress 8.7 and Chirag 5 percent. Since this is an alliance election, it can only be seen as such. And NDA increasing their tally massively compared to the stagnant position of INDI
https://results.eci.gov.in/ResultAcGenNov2025/index.htm
https://results.eci.gov.in/ResultAcGenNov2025/index.htm
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
https://x.com/rishibagree/status/1993659347021504704
@rishibagree
No discrepancies were found during the mandatory counting of VVPAT slips in the Bihar Assembly election.
Votes recorded in EVMs matched perfectly with VVPAT slips in all 243 constituencies.
Candidates' Reps were present during VVPAT verification.
The entire process was recorded on CCTV.
@rishibagree
No discrepancies were found during the mandatory counting of VVPAT slips in the Bihar Assembly election.
Votes recorded in EVMs matched perfectly with VVPAT slips in all 243 constituencies.
Candidates' Reps were present during VVPAT verification.
The entire process was recorded on CCTV.
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Below is from the chat of pollster Savyasachi. Some interesting points.
Pollster Shreeramjvc initially gave 18% Yadav votes to NDA. But after polls and recently in an interview he corrected it to 23%. It matches with Savyasachi calculation of 25% Yadav votes to NDA. That is great news. Hopefully will also be in effect in the next Lok sabha elections also.
https://x.com/savvyasaachi/status/19910 ... 5gyrQ&s=19
Pollster Shreeramjvc initially gave 18% Yadav votes to NDA. But after polls and recently in an interview he corrected it to 23%. It matches with Savyasachi calculation of 25% Yadav votes to NDA. That is great news. Hopefully will also be in effect in the next Lok sabha elections also.
https://x.com/savvyasaachi/status/19910 ... 5gyrQ&s=19
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Election Commission Directs BLOs To Verify All Voters 60+ In The 2002 SIR roll | Bengal | News18
Election Commission directs BLOs to verify all voters 60+ in the 2002 SIR roll
Election Commission directs BLOs to verify all voters 60+ in the 2002 SIR roll
Re: Elections Modi 3.0
Kerala was once considered as a zero chance and zero seat for BJP. Now after a single MP seat in 2024 Lok Sabha elections two pollsters are predicting upto 21% percent of votes in local body elections. Last time it was around 15% vote share.
From Dheeraj,
https://x.com/i/status/1999095402000494795
https://x.com/i/status/1998026367670366498
From Dheeraj,
https://x.com/i/status/1999095402000494795
From Savyasachi,my expectation from Kerala LB for BJP
2700 wards (2500-3000, 2020: ~1610)
18.6% vote (18.1%-19.1%, 2020: 15.8%, DP+M+MC vote)
80LB #1 or tied #1 (60-100, 2020: 32)
Trivandrum Corp absolute majority
At least 5 Municipalities #1
Significant gains across all other MCs,Ms,DPs and GPs
https://x.com/i/status/1998026367670366498
𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗔 𝗟𝗢𝗖𝗔𝗟 𝗕𝗢𝗗𝗬 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡(One of the intensively fought politically jelled LSGD POLL in India)
Since it is an LSGD election,V dont cover it in full due to lack of solid clients.Yet v do hv some data on it.Based on that
Quoting certain points over here
(1)
7.If luck favours,attaining No 1 position in 75+ local bodies is not an impossible task
50-80 local bodies as Single Largest Party is very much in line with winning 2.5K-3K total wards if fortune favour the brave attempt of NDA this time
8.Number of Local Bodies to go HUNG
(4)
9. In fact the votes, seats earn by NDA will decide the front runner of this election (whether it is UDF or LDF)
10. Last time LDF ruled 550+ GPs while UDF fell short of 340. This time UDF to improve its position and LDF to lose many
(5)
11.NDA gaining 18-21% voteshare is not a dream right now,after going thru the data that we hv, they may attain it,though it may proven wrong
12.LDF not to repeat its 2020 performance,UDF to better its position while NDA to be the absolute 3rd force in KL with improved might
(6)
𝗔 𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪 𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗘𝗔𝗖𝗛 𝟭𝟰 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗧𝗦 𝗜𝗡 𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗔
Disclaimer-Too difficult to forecast LSGD election. Limited samples,complicated trends etc are the restraints
𝗧𝗩𝗠- LDF EDGE, BJP-THE BIGGEST GAINER
(1) See Attached Tweets
