Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[drnayar]

https://gcaptain.com/china-issues-first ... al-waters/

In a watershed moment for maritime telecommunications regulation, Chinese authorities have penalized a foreign vessel for illegally operating SpaceX’s Starlink internet service within territorial waters — the first enforcement action of its kind that signals Beijing’s determination to control satellite communications in its maritime jurisdiction

[drnayar]

The SWIFT is just a big con game of western countries and companies especially to maintain the global currency status of the USD

It is the British "Indian railways" of the currency world designed to transfer wealth to the US

@drnayar ji,

It didn't start that way. It is being misused by the US now. And EU. They have two development centers. The main one is in Culpeper, VA, US, and the other is in La Hulpe, Belgium. Software/Hardware architecture of the entire SWIFT network is excellent, and their data retention locations are very well chosen. Even in the case of world wars and nuclear exchanges, they will survive unless the top executives of the US are taken out. That is why Culpeper had been chosen. I don't know much about La Hulpe, but I presume that the reasons were the same.

The project started back in 1985 or a little earlier. By 1987, country servers were up in most of the Western world. India had a server in Mumbai integrated into the network in the 1989-90 timeframe.

It worked well all these years without using it as a tool of coercion. 9/11 changed everything. The geopolitics is different now.

thank you for putting it in context, vayutuvan ji

[vijayk]

[drnayar]

https://www.thetimes.com/business/econo ... -5hcf69bth

India is on course to become the third-largest economy in the world for the first time by 2040, jumping from ninth position at the start of 2010 and overtaking the UK, Japan, and Germany. The CEBR said India remained on course to be the world’s largest economy by the end of the century

[drnayar]

https://interestingengineering.com/ener ... ine-energy

Data centers turn to old jet engines to power AI’s soaring energy demands
When turbines ran out, data centers turned to the sky for power.

[VinodTK]

From Russia with love: Why Indian labour is beginning to throng Moscow

From Russia with Love. The arrival of nearly 10,000 Indian workers, who queued up at an employment registration centre in Moscow last week, could well herald an unprecedented new economic 'cooperation' between the two countries.

The littlest known facet of the 16 agreements inked between India and Russia during the December 2025 New Delhi visit of President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi – but also perhaps its most significant — was the Labour Mobility Agreement, which establishes a legal framework for systematic recruitment of skilled Indian workers - IT, construction, healthcare - to address Russia's gigantic labour shortages, "ensuring safe migration, skill recognition, and smoother processes for jobs in high-demand sectors, boosting bilateral ties and Indian employment.’’

In reality, India has offered an economic – and possibly even a defence lifeline to Russia, which is facing a severe and deepening labour shortage crisis, driven by demographics (aging, low birth rates) and exacerbated by the Ukraine war, leading to mass mobilization, skilled worker emigration (brain drain), and reduced labour migration, creating huge gaps in sectors from construction and manufacturing to IT, forcing higher wages and a push to recruit from India.

The central Asian media, with strong connections to Russia, has already taken note. News.az, a news portal from Baku, Azerbaijan, in an article headlined How India is replacing Central Asian migrants in Russia, reported: “Preliminary figures for the first nine months of 2025 show more than 27,000 work-related entries, suggesting that total arrivals could exceed 35,000 by the end of the year if current trends continue. Industry groups and regional authorities estimate that the total number of Indian workers currently present in Russia may already exceed 60,000, although precise figures vary depending on visa categories and registration status.”

Now with the Indo-Russian accord, a trend which was set into motion a couple of years ago, is pitched for greater volume. “The number of Indian nationals arriving in Russia for employment has risen sharply since 2023, according to official data and industry estimates. That year, approximately 10,000 Indian citizens entered Russia for work-related purposes — a fourfold increase compared with the previous year. In 2024, arrivals climbed further to nearly 26,000,” said News.az.

According to one official, Indian migrants are being recruited across construction, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics and services. While many are employed in physically demanding or low-skilled roles, employers have also shown interest in Indian technicians, machine operators and industrial workers, citing reliability and workforce availability.

Language barriers and certification requirements remain challenges, but recruiters believe they can be overcome.

For Indian workers, Russia offers wages that often exceed earnings available for similar work at home, alongside relatively accessible recruitment channels compared with some traditional destinations. For Russia, the inflow reflects a pragmatic response to labour shortages at a time when access to established migration pools has become less predictable.

In addition, Russia offers competitive incentives and regulated hours, attracting Indian workers who traditionally sought jobs in the Gulf.

Officials say that this initiative supports Russia's broader target of $100 billion trade with India by 2030, integrating Indian talent into its growing economy.

The more critical point is whether the Indians present in Russia will also be recruited into the Russian Army, which has waged a four-year war with Ukraine. Last week, MoS External Affairs, Kirti Vardhan Singh, told the Rajya Sabha that "202 Indian nationals are believed to have been recruited into the Russian armed forces. Concerted efforts by the Government have resulted in early discharge of 119 of them; 26 are reported to have lost their lives and 07 are reported missing by the Russian side."

He said that efforts are ongoing for the early discharge of 50 individuals and that the Indian government “remains continuously engaged with the Russian side to ensure the safety, well-being, and early discharge of all Indian nationals in the Russian armed forces. This matter is discussed at various levels, including during interactions between leaders, ministers, and officials of the two sides.”

This week, British online newspaper, The Independent, reported that two Indian men who had travelled to Russia on student visas were killed after being forcibly recruited to fight in the Ukraine war, their families had alleged.

The bodies of Ajay Godara, 22, from Bikaner in Rajasthan state, and Rakesh Kumar Maurya, 30, from Uttarakhand, have since been returned and handed over to their relatives, the Independent said.

On separate student visas to Russia, the two alleged that they had agreed to what they believed were non-combat civilian roles as cleaners and helpers, only to later discover they had been enlisted into the Russian military and deployed to the front lines in Ukraine. The two were likely looking for part-time jobs on their student visa.

Russia’s four-year war in Ukraine has seen thousands of foreigners including those from Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, and Cuba, recruited to fight on Moscow’s side. Many of them have claimed they were forced or duped into the fighting.

Indian experts like Amarjiva Lochan, an ex-dean at Delhi University and an analyst of migration and diaspora movements, however, believe that such fears are misplaced. The Russians are keener on Myanmar, "where 5.3 million people, out of a total population of 55 million, are already working abroad.’’

He makes light of the view that Indian labour could be recruited for the Russian war effort. "The Indians are not trained, and Russia is not going to spend money on them. Instead, they would rather depend on the Myanmar Junta and the well-trained Karen fighters on the Thai-Myanmar border,” explains Lochan, who goes on to say that Russia is currently in the throes of the lowest ever unemployment, 2.7%, in the last 50 years, and is under no economic compulsion whatsoever.

One thing is for sure though: if Indians begin to throng Russia, as they well might, it could open up yet another vista for migrants, a tradition that their forebears have followed since the millenniums.

From: Live Mint

[bala]

India’s GDP Boom, Urban Crisis, Global Narrative Game & More | Sanjeev Sanyal

This YT is with Sanjeev Sanyal who is a historian, economist, author, and currently serves as a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India.

He talks about INSV Kaundinya (a stitched ship), showcasing India’s ancient maritime exploration. He speaks on the IndiGo crisis, freebies, pensions, and the future of India’s economy. He also explains urban challenges in Indian cities and GDP measurement tools. He also talks about the need to do Judiciary reforms, though he side steps the Babu system of IAS and so on. Another thing on his radar is urban governance which has caused decay of urban centers in India. Cities are in bad shape in terms of public amenities, cleanliness, walkability and much more.

He talks about the phony rating agencies and their so called rating system. He opposes status quo and is afraid of becoming the 'Ambassador car syndrome' in various areas. Open competition, taking risks and evolving are his mantras.

[vijayk]

https://www.financialexpress.com/busine ... er/4087488

Against this unsettled global backdrop, Dalio sees India at a uniquely favourable point in its development cycle. “India is going to have probably the best fundamentals to have the best growth rate in that because you're going from not having enough money to having that infrastructure,” Dalio added.

Dalio’s assessment is distinctly optimistic about India. As the post-1945 rules-based international order weakens, he argues, India has emerged with the strongest set of “ingredients” for sustained growth over the next decade.

These include a relatively low debt burden, a large and talented population, and rapid progress in building both physical and digital infrastructure. India, Dalio said, is at a ‘wonderful arc’ in its history, entering a phase where infrastructure build-out, institutional development and human capital can combine to deliver the strongest growth rate of any major economy in the coming decade.

[drnayar]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/bud ... 45835.html

India exported goods worth $292 billion during April-November of FY26, while imports stood at $515.2 billion in the same period, highlighting growing concerns within the government over external vulnerabilities

,( Vietnam's total exports from April to November of the 2026 fiscal year (which generally aligns with the 2025 calendar year data available) reached approximately $300.9 billion.)

[Tanaji]

Why is the rupee devaluing slowly but surely? It was about 73 to the $ around 5 years ago now its hovering at 90 or so. The other economic indicators are not that bad so what gives?

[drnayar]

Why is the rupee devaluing slowly but surely? It was about 73 to the $ around 5 years ago now its hovering at 90 or so. The other economic indicators are not that bad so what gives?

I think the "sanctions bite" will be less for the American markets with a devalued rupee. The point here is the RBI is letting it stay that way.

Not long back in the early 2010 the Chinese did something similar, the Americans called foul

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
From Poverty to Progress: India’s Historic Economic Turnaround | GDP Podcast with Dr. Shamika Ravi
In this special episode of the GDP@MyGov Podcast, noted economist and Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, Dr Shamika Ravi, examines India’s historic economic turnaround against poverty, one of the most consequential development shifts of the last decade.

Dr Ravi unpacks the policy framework that enabled this transition, highlighting how the JAM trinity laid the foundation for efficient welfare delivery, how digital public infrastructure such as UPI reduced leakages and expanded financial inclusion, and how large-scale investments in sanitation, housing, and basic services reshaped household living standards. She also discusses the impact of targeted government schemes and the central role played by women’s empowerment in improving intra-household outcomes and long-term development indicators.
The conversation further places India’s poverty reduction story within the broader economic vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, exploring how domestic reforms are aligned with India’s emerging role as a responsible global economic citizen offering scalable models of inclusive growth for the developing world.
This episode offers a rigorous, data-driven perspective on poverty reduction, development economics, and the future direction of India’s economic journey.
Watch now, and don't forget to like, share and subscribe for more such engaging conversations.

Reports and articles referenced in this episode:
Analysis of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (2011–12 and 2023–24):
https://eacpm.gov.in/wp-content/uploa...
Intra-household Resource Allocation and Changes in Child and Gender Poverty between 2011–12 and 2023–24: https://www.epw.in/journal/2025/32/sp...

00:00 – The Big Stat: From 30% to 3.9% Poverty
02:30 – Who is Dr. Shamika Ravi?
04:30 – Rangarajan vs. Tendulkar: Redefining the Poverty Line
07:10 – 320 Million People: The Scale of Change
09:15 – The JAM Trinity: More than just Bank Accounts
11:50 – How DBT Saved 1.5% of India’s GDP
13:40 – India is No Longer Being "Talked Down" To
17:30 – A Silent Revolution for Women’s Safety
20:45 – PM Modi’s Grounded Style of Economics
23:10 – From Districts to Aspirational Blocks
25:30 – Why UPI is the Fuel for India’s AI Future
29:20 – Eliminating Women’s Poverty
34:45 – The Women’s Reservation Act & The Rich Leadership Funnel
37:40 – The Rise of the Neo-Middle Class
41:15 – Why Indians are Spending Less on Food
43:50 – Fresh Fruits & Logistics: A Robust Supply Chain Story
46:30 – "Sabka Vikas" is Visible in the Numbers
48:20 – The Economic End of Naxalism: Governance vs. Ideology
51:20 – Youth Q&A: Data vs. Media Narratives
54:10 – Why Training in Economics Needs to Change
55:46 – Fiscal Phataphat: Rapid Fire with Dr. Shamika Ravi

[A_Gupta]

Thank you, @uddu!

One very important lesson is that cut-and-paste economics does not work. Ideology does not work. The usual scientific Controlled Random Trials are of limited value in development economics. Finding solutions means doing the fieldwork to understand the problem.

A second very important lesson is that for India to grow, India's political leaders must come from those who have seen life on the ground, not from the gilded halls and ivory towers of the Indian elites; it increases the chances that they understand what the outstanding problems are. Once a good direction is set by such leaders (e.g., build toilets!) then the experts can jump in to help make it happen on the ground.

The third one is - youth, align yourself with the national goals! Youth-led and women-led development is the way forward!

[A_Gupta]

This is a GoI press release:
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... g=3&lang=1
QUICK ESTIMATE OF INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND USE-BASED INDEX FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2025 (BASE 2011-12=100)

India's Index of industrial production records growth of 6.7% in November 2025

Driven by 8.0% growth in manufacturing sector, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 6.7 % year-on-year growth in November 2025. The growth is led by Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products, pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles

Growth in the Mining sector at 5.4% has also rebounded due to closure of monsoon season and strong growth in metallic minerals such as Iron ore.

[S_Madhukar]

Why is the rupee devaluing slowly but surely? It was about 73 to the $ around 5 years ago now its hovering at 90 or so. The other economic indicators are not that bad so what gives?

I think the "sanctions bite" will be less for the American markets with a devalued rupee. The point here is the RBI is letting it stay that way.

Not long back in the early 2010 the Chinese did something similar, the Americans called foul

The Won, Yen being export oriented economies devalued a lot over the years. Yuan somehow did not or was not allowed to ? Wonder where ₹ will end up? Today 100 Yen or 1000 won has same purchase power as 1$ - I think we will end up similar to Yen where 100₹=1$ for now and once we are a developed nation 10₹=1$ looking at PPP - unless we have a global currency reset that fundamentally alters this.

Most of western branded goods including electronics and even a Nescafé jar are effectively at 100x of dollar price in our local market

[Amber G.]

India overtakes Japan as 4th-largest economy, report says

India has pushed ahead of Japan as the world's fourth-biggest economy after sustained high growth, New Delhi says. Economic pace has apparently picked up more quickly than expected and India may soon claim third place.

On current trends, India is expected to overtake Germany to become the world's third-largest economy within the next three years, the review said.

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

[VinodTK]

^^^ I hope defense budget gets a major boost with money for capital assets procurement. The IAF / HAL are in piss poor shape, NSA or some compitant authority needs to step in and make the required calls to resolve the mess.

[A_Gupta]

India’s goods and services tax (GST) collections reached ₹1.75 lakh crore ($19.45 billion) in December, up 6.1% from the same month last year, the government said on Thursday, driven by robust growth in import revenues and steady domestic activity.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr