X-Post from the Chinese Armed Forces thread...
https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/2005117504642072613?s=20 ---> The Hypersonic Deterrent: How the YJ-20 Makes Intervention in a Taiwan Crisis Untenable for US/Japan. The recent footage confirming the deployment of the YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missile from a Type 055 large destroyer is more than a technological achievement for China; it is a geostrategic game-changer that fundamentally rewrites the calculus of any potential military intervention in a Taiwan emergency by the United States and Japan. A single Type 055, positioned anywhere in the vast expanse of water between Guam and Taiwan, possesses the strike capability to effectively nullify the forward military presence of its adversaries. The YJ-20's combination of range, speed, and maneuverability creates a missile gap that is, for the moment, insurmountable—and this reality forms the basis of a potent and immediate deterrent.
The Tyranny of the 1,500-Kilometer Radius
The YJ-20, a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, is estimated to have an operational range of up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). A Type 055 operating east of Taiwan transforms this vast, blue-water area into a no-go zone for high-value US and Japanese assets:
* Elimination of the First Island Chain: Major US and Japanese bases across the Ryukyu Islands, including the critical Kadena Air Base in Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base, fall squarely within the strike envelope. The YJ-20 does not need to be fired from China's mainland; it is deployed from a stealthy, mobile platform that can choose its optimal firing position.
* Threatening the Second Island Chain: By pushing its operational position toward the Taiwan-Guam midpoint, the Type 055 brings the vital staging areas of Guam—home to Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam—to the very edge of the missile's range. The ability to hold Guam's runways and ports at risk from a ship hundreds of miles away means the critical hub for all Western Pacific operations can be rendered ineffective on day one.
In a conflict scenario, the immediate goal of US and Japanese forces would be to deploy air power and surface fleets to the theater. The YJ-20 makes this deployment suicidal. Any aircraft carrier, amphibious assault ship, or key land base attempting to stage or transit the area would be a vulnerable target.
The Inherent Vulnerability: No Interceptor, No Defense
The true potency of the YJ-20 is not just its offensive capability, but the lack of any proven, operational defense against it.
* Hypersonic Speed (Mach 5+): The sheer velocity of the YJ-20 drastically reduces the decision-making and engagement time for existing interceptors like the SM-3 or the PAC-3.
* Maneuverability: Unlike a predictable ballistic missile, the YJ-20's glide vehicle can perform complex, unpredictable maneuvers in the terminal phase of flight. This ability to change course negates the established intercept geometry used by current missile defense systems, which rely on predicting a target's fixed trajectory.
* The US Missile Gap: The United States is actively developing several hypersonic programs (like the LRHW and CPS), but none are deployed in significant numbers.
Crucially, the US does not yet field an operational weapon designed specifically to intercept a hypersonic glide vehicle. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is pursuing the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) and the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), but these are still years away from full operational capability. For the purposes of a Taiwan contingency today, the US and Japan have no credible shield. To knowingly sail a multi-billion dollar aircraft carrier or deploy thousands of troops into the 1,500 km kill-zone of a missile that cannot be stopped is a risk no prudent military command can accept.
The Type 055 and its YJ-20 payload have created an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) bubble of unprecedented scale and lethality in the Western Pacific. This capability transforms the concept of intervention from a strategic maneuver into an existential gamble, one that effectively deters the very military action it is designed to counter. For the foreseeable future, the mere presence of a single Type 055 in the waters between Taiwan and Guam represents a veto on Western Pacific intervention.
Episode 19 has a really interesting story line. A must watch. Episode 19 is the last post on this page (for now!) and it starts off with Episode 15 (this post). I will post the subsequent episodes when they are published.