Monitoring Military Developments in Venezuela Post Maduro Abduction

[Rudradev]

Venezuelan Military overview

Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana - FANB

Operational strategic commander of all of Venezuela’s armed forces: Domingo Antonio Hernández Lárez.

ARMY
Army Chief: Maj. Gen. Johan Alexander Hernández Lárez (brother of Domingo Antonio the OSC)
63,000 personnel
92 X T-72B1 tanks
123 X BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles
81 X AMX-30 tanks
Artillery: Russian Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, Smerch rocket launchers.

AIR FORCE
Air Force Chief: Maj. Gen. Lenín Lorenzo Ramírez Villasmil
11,500 personnel
9 air bases
21 X Su30 Mk-2 multirole AC, some armed with Kh-31 anti-ship missiles
3 X F-16 Block A/B
1 X Fairchild EW aircraft
1 X KC-707 tanker
24 X transport AC (includes 3 X C130-H and other lighter planes)
29 X utility/transport helicopters
58 X trainer AC
12 X Ghods Mojaher UCAV (Iranian)

ADS (unknown how many units were lost as of 3rd January 2026)
12 X S-300 batteries
9 X Buk systems
44 X Pechora systems
Unknown number of IGLA MANPADS

NAVY
Navy Chief: Adm. Ashraf Suleimán Gutiérrez
25,500 personnel
1 X Mariscal Sucre-class frigate (Italian)
1 X Type-209 submarine (German)
5 X Coastal Patrol Vessels
4 X Corvettes (Spanish), equipped with Chilean and Iranian ASMs, but no AADS

NATIONAL GUARD
23,000 personnel

RESERVISTS
8,000 personnel

MILITIA
This is the wild card.
"Bolivarian Militia" formed in 2008 by Hugo Chavez as a sort of political paramilitary, similar to IRGC
Estimates range from 220,000 personnel (IISS) to 4.5 million (Maduro's claim in August 2025).

[Vayutuvan]

So no Chinese maal.

[Rudradev]

The utility aircraft include 8 X Shaanxi Y-8. There are also 23 X Hongdu JL-8 jet trainers. But no frontline combat aircraft, vessels, or vehicles from China. Not sure about ADS.

[Rudradev]

Army Orbat Map



Airbases Map



Oil assets Map

[Rudradev]

Thought experiment: if you were in charge of Venezuela's armed forces, how would you increase the cost to a foreign occupier (with massive conventional military superiority) of exploiting your oil resources?

[Jay]

I do not think this will devolve into a military conflict between venezuelan's and US armed forces. Venezuela does not have the morale to take up this fight. US will sprinkle dollars, jobs, and influence to buy up the opposition and place a new head and will rule the nation by proxy.

[Rudradev]

I do not think this will devolve into a military conflict between venezuelan's and US armed forces. Venezuela does not have the morale to take up this fight. US will sprinkle dollars, jobs, and influence to buy up the opposition and place a new head and will rule the nation by proxy.

That was the plan with Ahmed Chalabi too. Buy up the opposition, they have no morale, they hated Saddam, they will greet us as liberators and accept whomever we assign to lead them...

A lot depends on how the US goes about this. If they attempt to impose a new regime neocon style, with a De-Chavismo campaign similar to Paul Bremer's De-Ba'athification in Iraq, there will be armed resistance.

But if they take a completely novel approach, it just might work. Leave the Chavista regime in place under Delcy Rodrigues, buy off the upper echelons of the military and govt (which they probably already did to ensure Op Absolute Resolve met with no resistance), and basically let everything in Venezuela go on exactly as it has been under Chavez and Maduro... with the sole exception being that the US controls oil, supplies arms, and dictates foreign policy (instead of China/Russia). As long as the Chavista networks of authority, patronage, and corruption are allowed to remain intact, let ideology go to hell... who cares if the man upstairs is Xi or Trump? The aam VE is scrood anyway.

This would be more akin to the old imperialist model. As long as Nizam retains his gaddi, collects taxes & receives ji-huzoori from the peasants— what does it matter if the British, Portuguese, or Marathas have suzerainty over him?

If the Trump regime actually manages to pull this off, they deserve kudos for shrewd application of realpolitik (instead of the numbskulled "values based" interventionism of Clinton, W. Bush, and Obama).

[Rudradev]

During Delcy Rodrigues' swearing-in ceremony, she openly embraced the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian ambassadors to VE. This comes after a Chump administration tweet demanding that VE must sever all economic and diplomatic ties with Russia, China, Iran, & Cuba while selling oil exclusively to the United States.

So, at least in public, Caracas signals defiance.

[Rudradev]

4 hours ago: US Navy seizes Russian tanker carrying VE oil as it departs Venezuela. Prior to this, at least 16 ships carrying oil have successfully run the US blockade as of Maduro's abduction.

More details. The vessel, Bella 1, was previously running unflagged and was on a US watch list for dark fleet ships transporting Iranian oil. The USN & CG gave pursuit to Bella 1 as she was departing Venezuela. Bella 1 immediately changed her status from unflagged to Russia-flagged. Russia dispatched a submarine & some surface vessels to intercept the pursuing US vessels but they did not arrive before Bella 1 was seized by thr US.

Other previously unflagged vessels operating off the VE coast have also changed their status to Russia flagged over the past 2 days.

[Vayutuvan]

How can a ship run a blockade? Am I wrong in assuming that USN boats are faster than tankers? Satellites can easily monitor tanker movements. USN would have plenty of time to position its assets to blockade any ship leaving Venezuela.

(Added later: answered by lord @rudradev sir )

[Rudradev]

I would request you to repost that in legible text, but I'm not convinced that your doing so would make it worth reading.

[Vayutuvan]

I would request you to repost that in legible text, but I'm not convinced that your doing so would make it worth reading.

Whoa. Your post already answers my question. Why are you insulting?

[Najunamar]

Looks like, there’s no retroactive punitive action allowed claiming you were stateless 2 weeks back hence you can’t claim protection after you register with Country A. It is a different matter that U.S. of A is upending all international and maritime laws. This may very well bite them in the rump soon when China and Russia will take unilateral actions that may not be pleasant for the U.S. Interesting times ahead for sure.

[Rudradev]

How can a ship run a blockade?

Am I wrong in assuming that USN boats are faster than tankers? Satellites can easily monitor tanker movements. USN would have plenty of time to position its assets to blockade any ship leaving Venezuela.

(Added later: answered by lord @rudradev sir )

No, you would not be wrong in that assumption. Yes, satellites are definitely monitoring.

Yet, since Maduro's abduction — the day Chump said "we (USA) control the oil", 16 tankers have loaded up on VE oil and departed for non-US/non-US-allied destinations, including in some cases China.

So either

1) Those ships in fact "ran the blockade", which can refer to evasion rather than speed —due to some combination of {indifference, incompetence, distraction, confusion regarding orders/remit} on the part of USN.

2) There was no blockade as of Jan 4th, Chump was talking 5hit as usual... but now that embarrassing evidence of dark fleet ships carrying oil away has become public, Chump wants to re-assert credibility by ordering the USN to get serious about a blockade.

I think 2 would be most likely because it is most consistent with the ad-hoc, loud-mouthed, half-assed way Chump sarkar has often done things. Rashtrapati gets diaper-khujli and suddenly announces some policy position before the world, then everybody else scrambles from the top down to pretend like it was the plan all along.

3) A blockade was indeed in effect from Jan 4th, USN was alert, but for some reason Chump wanted these 16 ships specifically to be allowed through it. This is the "4D chess" version of the story that some will invariably buy into.

Also, I see 4-chan-appropriate juvenilia (like this) as a loud signal that the person using it doesn't take their own words seriously, and therefore their post isn't worth engaging with for people who actually do regard BRF as a somewhat serious discussion forum. I suspect I am not alone in this view.

[Vayutuvan]

Also, I see 4-chan-appropriate juvenilia (like this) as a loud signal that the person using it doesn't take their own words seriously, and therefore their post isn't worth engaging with for people who actually do regard BRF as a somewhat serious discussion forum. I suspect I am not alone in this view.

My OP (without striking out) was a serious question. Why did you think it was 4 chan? A lot of Juvenalia is going on in every thread.

Let me disabuse all BRFites (who are serious folks and seekers of knowledge) that Juvenalian is a pejorative and applies to 4 chan type posts . Wonly.

(All of us who are full of ourselves AKA take ourselves too seriously)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satires_(Juvenal)

The Satires (Latin: Saturae) are a collection of satirical poems by the Latin author Juvenal written between 100–127 A.D.

The Satires address perceived threats to society, such as socially ascendant foreigners, infidelity, and the extreme excesses of the Roman aristocracy. Juvenal's audience was highly educated, and his dense poems are laced with historical and mythological allusions.

'nuff said.

[Vayutuvan]

This should be in the "Understanding the US thread". I will move it with my commentary on that.

Satire 5: The fifth satire describes the shame experienced by a client when his patron, Virro, finally decided to extend to him an invitation to his dinner party. It criticizes the client, stating that, "a poor man’s stomach is easy to please, yet you suffer insults at a dinner party just for a free meal". It also states that, though they are at the same table, they are being treated completely differently, with the client being given much worse food while Virro eats delicacies. Overall, this satire is a brutal commentary on the social inequality of ancient Rome, where the wealthy give their dependents the bare minimum in exchange for their loyalty.

[Rudradev]

I have faith that some day, even the most earnestly pompous among us will have figured out the difference between a noun and an adjective.

For example:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/juvenilia

juvenilia
plural noun
ˌjü-və-ˈni-lē-ə
1
: compositions produced in the artist's or author's youth
2
: artistic or literary compositions suited to or designed for the young

Vs.

https://www.oxfordreference.com/display ... ry%20lives.

Juvenalian (adj)

Quick Reference
Characteristic of or written in the manner of the Roman poet Juvenal (Decimus Junius Juvenalis, c.65–c.135 ce), whose sixteen verse satires are fierce denunciations of his fellow-Romans in general and of women in particular for their mercenary lives. .

Anyway, back to topic.


https://www.latintimes.com/colombian-gu ... ela-593236

Relevant because the mountainous interior of Colombia shares a large border with Venezuela, particularly the western Maracaibo oilfields of the latter.

Colombian Guerrillas Vow to Spend 'Last Drop of Blood Fighting the US Empire' After Attack on Venezuela

A recent InSight report revealed that three of the ELN's five main fighting divisions operate from Venezuelan territory, using it for logistics, training and cross-border movement

[Vayutuvan]

Juvenalia is a noun. Juvenilian and juvenalian are adjectives. Juvenile comes from Sanskritam “yuva”. Juvenal connected to “yuva”? Possible. But let us not get into the made up PIE madness.

[Rudradev]

Unconfirmed OSINT, but it seems an army general is being scapegoated by Delcy Rodrigues for "betraying" Maduro:

Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez has ordered the arrest of Major General Javier Marcano Tábata, essentially charging him with treason as the principal person responsible for the betrayal of President Nicolas Maduro, the First Lady Cilia Flores, the Bolivarian Revolution, and the people of Venezuela.

Delcy trying to show her fellow Chavistas that she is legit/not a Trump plant? Using the opportunity to settle scores and clean house?

[Vayutuvan]

I suspect I am not alone in this view.

That is an important piece of information on your process of judging others. So you judge people based on the judgment of your ingroup. It is dangerous in some, or even most, situations where you are negotiating with another outside your group.

[Vayutuvan]

Now that my curiosity has been triggered, here is what I found out.

Search on Google with AI mode turned on: is juvenal related to juvenile?

AI answer (I quote below)

Yes, the name "Juvenal" and the word "juvenile" are directly related through their shared Latin origin. Both terms derive from the Latin word juvenis, which means "young person" or "youth".

Juvenal

Proper Noun: Juvenal is the name of the ancient Roman poet (Decimus Junius Juvenalis) who lived during the late 1st and early 2nd centuries AD. He is famous for his satirical poems, known as the Satires, which critiqued Roman society.

Adjective/Noun: The term "juvenal" (with a lowercase 'j') is also used, particularly in ornithology (the study of birds), as an adjective to describe a bird in its first set of feathers, or as a noun for the bird itself in that specific stage of development. 
Juvenile

Adjective/Noun: "Juvenile" is a more common modern English word that can be used as an adjective meaning "youthful" or "relating to young people," or as a noun for a young person. It is frequently used in legal and scientific contexts, such as "juvenile delinquency" or describing an immature animal stage in general. 

In essence, "juvenile" is a general English word that came from the same Latin root as the specific Roman name and the specific ornithological term "juvenal".

[RCase]

4 hours ago: US Navy seizes Russian tanker carrying VE oil as it departs Venezuela. Prior to this, at least 16 ships carrying oil have successfully run the US blockade as of Maduro's abduction.

More details. The vessel, Bella 1, was previously running unflagged and was on a US watch list for dark fleet ships transporting Iranian oil. The USN & CG gave pursuit to Bella 1 as she was departing Venezuela. Bella 1 immediately changed her status from unflagged to Russia-flagged. Russia dispatched a submarine & some surface vessels to intercept the pursuing US vessels but they did not arrive before Bella 1 was seized by thr US.

Other previously unflagged vessels operating off the VE coast have also changed their status to Russia flagged over the past 2 days.

Could RUS sieze a US flagged ship elsewhere in the world (like the Pacific or Atlantic) in at tit-for-tat move?

[Vayutuvan]

Could RUS sieze a US flagged ship elsewhere in the world (like the Pacific or Atlantic) in at tit-for-tat move?

The Black Sea is more likely. Are any US-flagged ships plying to/from Ukraine? Russia might start with some NATO country-flagged ships first and move onto the massa ships.

[Jay]

Could RUS sieze a US flagged ship elsewhere in the world (like the Pacific or Atlantic) in at tit-for-tat move?

Why would it do that, would be a pretty self-destructive move.

[Rudradev]

I suspect I am not alone in this view.

That is an important piece of information on your process of judging others. So you judge people based on the judgment of your ingroup. It is dangerous in some, or even most, situations where you are negotiating with another outside your group.

No, I regard people as X who show every sign of being X.

The views of others are their own. My expectations of the views of others, are my own. Neither has any bearing on the fact that if a person shows every sign of being X, I will still regard them as X.

[Vayutuvan]

Juvenalian

[Rudradev]

Now that my curiosity has been triggered, here is what I found out.

Search on Google with AI mode turned on: is juvenal related to juvenile?

AI answer (I quote below)

Yes, the name "Juvenal" and the word "juvenile" are directly related through their shared Latin origin. Both terms derive from the Latin word juvenis, which means "young person" or "youth".

Juvenal

Proper Noun: Juvenal is the name of the ancient Roman poet (Decimus Junius Juvenalis) who lived during the late 1st and early 2nd centuries AD. He is famous for his satirical poems, known as the Satires, which critiqued Roman society.

Adjective/Noun: The term "juvenal" (with a lowercase 'j') is also used, particularly in ornithology (the study of birds), as an adjective to describe a bird in its first set of feathers, or as a noun for the bird itself in that specific stage of development. 
Juvenile

Adjective/Noun: "Juvenile" is a more common modern English word that can be used as an adjective meaning "youthful" or "relating to young people," or as a noun for a young person. It is frequently used in legal and scientific contexts, such as "juvenile delinquency" or describing an immature animal stage in general. 

In essence, "juvenile" is a general English word that came from the same Latin root as the specific Roman name and the specific ornithological term "juvenal".

It's worth remembering that two words sharing a common linguistic root does not equal the two words having the same meaning.

For example:

Genre, gender, generic, genetic, generate, genealogy, and genesis all derive from the Latin genus, meaning "kind/class"

Galaxy and lactose both derive from the Greek gala, meaning "milk"

Canon and cannon both derive from the Greek kanna, meaning a "reed"

Sanguine (meaning happy) and sanguinary (meaning bloodthirsty) both derive from the Latin sangiuneus, meaning "of blood"

Using such words as if they were interchangeable is often considered a sign of ignorance.

[Rudradev]

4 hours ago: US Navy seizes Russian tanker carrying VE oil as it departs Venezuela. Prior to this, at least 16 ships carrying oil have successfully run the US blockade as of Maduro's abduction.

More details. The vessel, Bella 1, was previously running unflagged and was on a US watch list for dark fleet ships transporting Iranian oil. The USN & CG gave pursuit to Bella 1 as she was departing Venezuela. Bella 1 immediately changed her status from unflagged to Russia-flagged. Russia dispatched a submarine & some surface vessels to intercept the pursuing US vessels but they did not arrive before Bella 1 was seized by thr US.

Other previously unflagged vessels operating off the VE coast have also changed their status to Russia flagged over the past 2 days.

Could RUS sieze a US flagged ship elsewhere in the world (like the Pacific or Atlantic) in at tit-for-tat move?

I believe it depends on whether Putin thinks that humiliating Trump is a good move right now. It's possible he will calculate that when your enemy is busy destroying himself, the best thing to do is not interfere. Similar to when India does not immediately respond to every lamebrained Paki provocation.

Putin doesn't strike me as someone who would play H&D games without weighing all the pros and cons. Right now, seizing a US ship would simply give Trump more traction (and the opportunity for distraction) domestically.

[Vayutuvan]

One can use it in the sense of preening strutting around like a bird.

[Vayutuvan]

@Rudradev ji,

I came here with a number of genuine questions, hoping to gain some insight. I also thought that this is a thread which will focus more on realpolitik sans emotional tu tu main main and partisan bhoosa that is going on in climate thread, understanding the US thread, etc.

Little did I know that this is your territory and you will put down others who are interested in a mature conversation.

You, Sire, have just lost a longtime fan of yours.

The right amount of self-confidence is an asset. A little less or a little too much turns into a liability.

In Telugu, there is an old proverb.

pillakaakikem telusu unDelu debba పిల్లకాకికేమి తెలుసు ఉండేలు దెబ్బ. What does a little crow know about a the blow deom a slingshot?

as a high complement that I take it my ignorance of angrez. wonlee.

[Vayutuvan]

Looks like the Venezuelan military has packed up. Did they go back to barracks?