Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[drnayar]

Iran’s intelligence has seized a large shipment of illegal Starlink devices & other advanced electronics meant for espionage and sabotage.

The shipment came from a “country in the region” & was meant to be distributed in unrest-hit provinces.

Some of the equipment was also intended for espionage near military & missile sites for the next war.

https://x.com/AryJeay/status/2011070767321039183?s=20

[Vayutuvan]

Israel, KSA, or Syria?

[A_Gupta]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman ... irst-time/

We have not seen this before. Iran’s digital blackout has now deployed military jammers, reportedly supplied by Russia, to shut down access to Starlink Internet. This is a game-changer for the Plan-B connectivity frequently used by protesters and anti-regime activists when ordinary access to the internet is stopped..

“Despite reports that tens of thousands of Starlink units are operating inside Iran,” says Iran Wire, “the blackout has also reached satellite connections.” It is reported that about 30 per cent of Starlink’s uplink and downlink traffic was (initially) disrupted," quickly rising “to more than 80 per cent” within hours.

[A_Gupta]

Unknown reliability

https://iranwire.com/en/news/145471-ira ... ernet-use/

Iran is preparing to enforce a law that imposes the death penalty for using Starlink satellite internet.

[A_Gupta]

I don't have solid information about this:

The "BRICS Unit" (Gold-Backed Digital Settlement Unit)
What it is: A pilot digital instrument backed by gold (40%) and member currencies (60%) for trade settlement, launched in late 2025.

Why the Unit? -- US trade sanctions work because the US dollar is the instrument for trade settlement via the SWIFT system. To get out of this stranglehold, a new trade settlement currency is needed along with a new payment system.

As far as I can tell, part of the reason for Brazil, Russia, India and China (South Africa very minimally) to increase the gold reserves their central banks held in 2025 is in preparation for the BRICS Unit.

As far as I can tell, the BRICS Unit is not ready for prime-time; BRICS is very cautious about it; Trump will seek to kill it.

Will the BRICS Unit be successful? What will its impact be on the so-far-US-led-world-economic-order? I don't know.

Why now? IMO, the calculation is rapidly changing compared to one year ago, because rest of the world's patience is running out with Trump's tariff, sanctions, and military regime change tantrums.

[uddu]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman ... irst-time/

We have not seen this before. Iran’s digital blackout has now deployed military jammers, reportedly supplied by Russia, to shut down access to Starlink Internet. This is a game-changer for the Plan-B connectivity frequently used by protesters and anti-regime activists when ordinary access to the internet is stopped..

“Despite reports that tens of thousands of Starlink units are operating inside Iran,” says Iran Wire, “the blackout has also reached satellite connections.” It is reported that about 30 per cent of Starlink’s uplink and downlink traffic was (initially) disrupted," quickly rising “to more than 80 per cent” within hours.

Some reports are suggesting that this did not help much as most of the data that got transmitted did not require high bandwidth and are mostly text.

[drnayar]