West Asia News and Discussions

[putnanja]

Wonder what was the reason for UAE president to visit India on such short notice for a 1.5 hours meeting! There appears to be some realignment going on in West Asia. The recent Saudi-UAE spat in Yemen, the Iran protests, Turkey-Saudi-Pak axis, Israel-Palestine conflict etc has kept the region on the boil. Looks like there is lot boiling under the surface in many countries.

[uddu]

3 hours, Defence Deal: Why UAE President Suddenly Visited India | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G
The UAE's president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited India for a short, surprise visit amid rising tensions in West Asia. Though MBZ's trip lasted just 3 hours, both India and the UAE agreed to strike a strategic defence partnership. The visit and the defence boost come amid a UAE-Saudi split and a recent Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence treaty. Palki Sharma tells you why the UAE president came to India.

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
India First: Gaurav Sawant With Panel Discuss PM Modi-MBZ Meet And Trump's 'Board Of Peace' For Gaza
In this episode of India First, host Gaurav Sawant, Managing Editor at India Today, analyses the strategic significance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent high-level visit to the United Arab Emirates. Joined by Pranay Upadhyay and Sushant Sarin, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, Sawant explores the 'substantive' nature of the bilateral agreements signed, ranging from space sector development to nuclear energy and investment. A key highlight of the discussion is the invitation from Donald Trump for India to join a 'Board of Peace' for Gaza. Sawant notes, 'Donald Trump, the Mrs.5 president, has invited several countries, including India, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to be a part of the Board of Peace for Gaza.' The panel examines the shifting geopolitics in West Asia, including the UAE-Saudi Arabia dynamics and the impact of Indian expatriates in the region. The debate also touches upon the defense pacts involving Pakistan and Turkey, questioning India's potential role in regional peace initiatives.

[A_Gupta]

Why was the India-UAE deal done with a one day notice of MBZ’s visit?

[A_Gupta]

It seems UAE's adventures with its proxies/allies in Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and Libya have run into setbacks, before the UAE came running to India.
I hope that the UAE deal with India does not mean that India is drawn into these conflicts. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, the UAE, Iran, Ethiopia are all playing violent power politics for which India does not have the bandwidth if it wants to be Viksit Bharat 2027.

There are other points of friction possible - e.g., the UAE supports Haftar in Libya; Haftar allegedly signed the JF-17 deal with Pakistan - if the deal goes through, it will likely be with UAE funding.

https://youtu.be/wFAuZg1w_Gk?si=KTkm1lXAp-Eb_ElB


There is the Saudi-Pakistan alliance, possibly expanding to Turkey and Egypt.

After several years spent happily subverting larger, more powerful nations across the Middle East. After years engaging in a no holds barred geostrategic dog fight, Emirati leaders appear to have worked themselves into a predicament that is entirely of their own making. The UAE has been working on the fundamental assumption that a regional alliance like this was not possible or at the very least was so unlikely that it could be discounted as a possibility. It's targeted, subverted and absorbed the regional strategic interests of other nations because those nations were each out for themselves. Each had a bigger thing to worry about. And each came to the conclusion that it was better to regard the Emirates as a troublesome but ultimately acceptable friend than an enemy that would have been very hard to deal with by themselves.

But now they've gathered into an alliance with about seven times the economic power. And if we're only talking about Emirati citizens, well, 400 times the population of the Emirates. Bring all that power to bear against the UAE and it's not a close fight, especially considering that the Emirates have funneled their resources not into building a military on par with say Israel's, but into a decentralized network of proxy groups across the region. Of course, it's not likely that these four nations would simply start a war with the Emirates and force regime change in Abu Dhabi. But they don't have to. Already the collapse of the SDC, the severing of the Emirates relationship with the Somali government, and the recent setbacks in Sudan have made it clear the regional network that the Emirates have built is very fragile. They're prone to interruption. They're able to be severed or thwarted if the Emirates [music] as regional adversaries decide to work together. And once those connections are gone, they're going to be very difficult to rebuild. In the span of just a few weeks, the Emirates's position has already been meaningfully stunted across the Middle East. And it's become very clear that when powerful Muslim nations begin to form alliances, the Emirates are not a priority.

in today's episode and we'll say it again. The fact that the Emirates became as relevant as they did in as many industries and as many corners of the world as they have is a highly impressive feat. But at some point in the not too distant past, Abu Dhabi made a bet that it could cultivate a regional influence network, play the power games of the Middle East, and push limits wherever it pleased, all without ever being forced to account for its actions by a gathering of its rivals. Today, in January of 2026, the verdict is in. Abu Dhabi made a very bad bet, and now it's up to Abu Dhabi's rivals to decide what they'd like to collect.

As for how the Emirates chooses to deal with its new situation, its leaders do still have options, but it's clear they'll have to chart a new path forward. For Abu Dhabi, Yemen no longer appears to be in play, at least for the short term. The RSF is still on the offensive, and it'll be very difficult to defeat, even if aid from the Emirates were to stop tomorrow. But its value to Abu Dhabi is based on Abu Dhabi's ability to reach it. And that's already going to be difficult. Its approach in Somalia will need a fundamental rethink. And as for Libya, it appears that the Emirates are just the latest regional power to learn that relationships with Haftar can be fickle.

If the Emirates choose to maintain their proxy network as best they can and try to resist pressure from a growing regional alliance that doesn't feel the need to include Abu Dhabi, then it'll be fighting an uphill battle from a point of economic, strategic, and diplomatic disadvantage. But the alternative is for the Emirates to swallow its ambition. And all too often in geopolitics, ambition turns out to be the one thing that a nation is unwilling to sacrifice.

[uddu]

https://x.com/kurdistannews24/status/20 ... 6687440251
@kurdistannews24
For human rights lawyers and Kurds in Turkey:

This man, who rap*d and then executed a Kurdish girl in the Syrian city of Raqqa and cut her hair as a gift, is a member of Turkish intelligence.
His name is Rami al-Dahash , and he lives in Urfa, Turkey

[Tanaji]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjrzjqg8dlwt

The “Board of Peace” unveiled

Bhikaristans PM was sulking in background as usual

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2014501482972991920
@MeghUpdates
TRUMP: "We have a lot of ships on their way to Iran. We have an aircraft carrier heading there too. We'll see what happens."

Israeli channel 13: "The IDF has completed preparations for an American strike on Iran and the home front is now ready."

[uddu]

Saudi JOINS Iran In ‘Fight Against US’; MBS Announces Support As Trump ‘Plans Tehran Strike’ | Watch
For decades, Middle East alliances were frozen in place, but now the ground is shifting fast as Saudi Arabia and the UAE—longtime US allies—tilt toward Iran while Trump threatens Tehran, signalling no war from their skies or soil; Riyadh’s blunt rejection of aggression and direct talks with Iran mark a stunning break from old rivalries, exposing a region choosing de-escalation over escalation and rewriting the rules as Washington watches its influence tested in real time.

[A_Gupta]

In short, Saudi won't allow airspace to be used for military action against Iran, crown prince says

[Vayutuvan]

Qatar is from where the US will launch air raids. It is highly improbable that KSA would not allow the US to use their airspace. Who are they gonna deploy against the US?! Pakis?!

[uddu]

Qatar is from where the US will launch air raids. It is highly improbable that KSA would not allow the US to use their airspace. Who are they gonna deploy against the US?! Pakis?!

If Qatar, they don't have to overfly anything other than the ocean to Iran. Probably they meant, those bases from Saudi itself from where launch of aircraft directly to strike Iran. May be they can fly to Qatari airspace and then go towards Iran.
UAE is in difficult position as there are chances U.S could overfly on the way to eastern Iran. Also Oman.
Three Options, One President: What Trump Could Do to Iran | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G
Everyone is talking about peace in Ukraine — yet the war keeps widening. The U.S. is now pushing a bold proposal: turn Donbas into a “free economic zone,” a buffer Ukraine must withdraw from, even though Russia controls most of it. Zelensky can’t accept it, but he can’t reject Washington either so he’s floating a nationwide referendum. Trump is warning of World War 3. NATO says Europe must prepare for war. And the U.S. wants “full clarity” on its plan by Christmas. So, is this the beginning of peace or the start of something far more dangerous? Palki Sharma tells you.

[uddu]

'TIME IS RUNNING OUT': Trump issues DIRE warning to Iran
Chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin provides details on Iran's response to President Donald Trump's warning as he says 'time is running out' to make a deal.

[uddu]

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/2016733498690904152
@MeghUpdates
Saudi official EXPOSES the Hypocrisy of the US

“When our refinery was attacked, we asked the US for help and they stayed silent.”

“Now that we’re pursuing peace with Iran, Washington is sabotaging it. The US is a war empire. It survives on conflict.”

[uddu]

Three ways Trump could strike Iran

[uddu]

Iran Attack Tactics On US Military : Explained
How does a smaller regional power take on the world's largest navy, with its massive aircraft carriers and advanced destroyers?

Well, Iran’s strategy isn't to face the US head-on; it is to rely on asymmetric warfare.
Take this for example,

These two civilian ships are sailing near an aircraft carrier.
Everything looks completely normal.

But then, with the press of a button, a shipping container Doors opens up and out Comes
A Missile.
This is Soviet-era P-15 anti-ship missile which can still pack a Punch.
This is instantly followed by a swarm of low-flying drones and fast attack boats from within the Cargo Ships and not to forget the small Midget Submarines .

These Submarines Can Launch Torpedo's at the same time .

In quick Succession it can pass through the Carrier Strike Group Defense System and even achieve 10% impact.

They might not sink the carrier, but they can damage it enough to make the waters too dangerous for the U.S. to operate in.
So let's Look at the four key tactics they would likely use.

Iran Attack Tactics On US Military : Explained
How Iran Targets US Forces : The Asymmetric Warfare
Why Iran’s "Swarm Tactics" Worry the US Military : Explained

[uddu]

Aircrafts, squadrons and weaponry deployed, tactics and U.S viewpoint
Why the F-15E & USS Lincoln Exercise is NOT Just a "Drill"
Official press releases call Operation Agile Spartan a "routine training event." Do not believe the handshake. When you mobilize the USS Abraham Lincoln and the 494th Fighter Squadron into the world's most volatile choke point, you are not doing calisthenics. You are rehearsing.

The problem is "Geometric Failure." Inside the Persian Gulf, the Carrier is a fixed target trapped in a cage. Its F-35C stealth fighters are invisible, but they lack the "Physics of Volume" to break command bunkers buried under 30 feet of concrete. Stealth doesn't break concrete. Mass does.

In this episode of Navy Decoded, witness the solution: The Kinetic Sledgehammer. We analyze why the Pentagon is pairing a 50-year-old F-15E "relic" with the modern fleet to deliver the GBU-72. From "Hot-Pit" refueling in the desert to the integrated Kill Chain, discover why this is the ultimate rehearsal for war.

#USNavy #USSAbrahamLincoln #F35C #F15E #NavyDecoded #MilitaryStrategy #OperationAgileSpartan #GBU72

Timestamps:
0:00 The Pacific Sprint: Abandoning the South China Sea
1:41 295 Days at Sea: The $3 Billion RCOH Transformation
4:32 The Kill Chain: F-35C vs. Iran's Rezonans-NE Radar
8:26 Aegis Shield: Arleigh Burke Destroyers vs. Saturation Fire
10:50 Malacca Transit: The Iranian Spy Ship Encounter
12:25 Breaking A2/AD: Solving the Strait of Hormuz Dilemma
15:29 The American Guarantee: Protecting the Global Supply Chain

[drnayar]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/midd ... media-says

The navies of Iran, Russia and China will hold military drills off the coast of Iran this week in a bid to boost cooperation, Iranian media reported on Sunday.

The three countries, which share a common desire to counter what they characterize as American hegemony, have held similar exercises in the region in recent years.

For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

The drills “will begin on Tuesday in the port of Chabahar,” located in southeast Iran on the Gulf of Oman, the Tasnim news agency said, without specifying their duration.

“Warships and combat and support vessels of the Chinese and Russian naval forces, as well as the warships of Iran’s naval forces of the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” the ideological arm of Iran’s military, are expected to participate, according to Tasnim.

The exercises will take place “in the northern Indian Ocean” and aim to "strengthen security in the region, and expand multilateral cooperation between participating countries,” Tasnim said.

Azerbaijan, South Africa, Oman, Kazakhstan, Pakistan , Qatar, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka will attend as observers.

[drnayar]

China is now posting real time satellite data from its photoreconnaissance sats over the gulf region pinpointing american deployments !!

https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2017257693304520964



also it shows how important it is for India to build up its satellite reconnaissance capabilities asap !!

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2017603924019015977
@Intl_Mediatior
Explosions in at least 7 cities and nuclear sites of Iran's IRGC during the presence of the Israeli intelligence chief in Washington indicate that a "technical terror war" has begun against Iran. These explosions cannot be called gas leaks.


https://x.com/i/status/2017599885227528527
@mjavinod
Iran Navy Chief apparently killed

Will 3000 missiles fly towards Israel?
Tonight?

Will it be Nuclear ?

[uddu]

Trump Says Iran Is Ready For Deal, Adding "Armada" Larger Than One in Venezuela is on Its Way
President Donald Trump says Iran wants to “make a deal” with the United States as tensions escalate over nuclear talks and regional security. Trump claimed Tehran is signalling openness to negotiations to avoid military action, while the US has deployed a powerful naval force — a “massive armada” — to the region that he says is larger than the one sent to Venezuela. Trump also said he has given Iran a deadline it must meet to enter talks on its nuclear programme and other issues, warning Tehran against developing nuclear weapons or continuing lethal crackdowns on protesters. Iran’s top diplomats responded that the country is ready for fair negotiations but not under threats and stressed that discussions should not include concessions on defence or missile capabilities. Iranian officials say they are equally prepared for conflict if necessary. Russia and Turkey have offered to mediate between the US and Iran amid growing tensions.

[SRajesh]

Whatever has happened in Iran to what has happend in Balochistan, is there a connection??
A tit for tat moves
Are Iranian co-ordinating with Baloch rebels??
If so where do Rus and China sit here.
Has China taken to teach a lesson to munna in the Game of Thrones??

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2017613980282364250
@samartoor3086
It has started! Surgical Drone strikes are taking place to take out the top leadership of Iran Regime.
More Drone salvos coming in by tonight!
IRGC SF operatives and Snipers have been deployed on Roof Tops in all Major Cities!

[uddu]

https://x.com/mjavinod/status/2017597959307931798
@mjavinod
Trump attacks Iran
To save himself from #EpsteinFiles ?
Since these files are big
This war will be a prolonged one

Boots on Ground
Body bags

Will be Trump’s design

MARK MY WORDS, MARK THIS TWEET

[A_Gupta]

The portion of Balochistan that Iran holds (the Sistan and Baluchestan province) is mostly Sunni, and if Pakistani Balochistan manages to secede, then perhaps Sistan and Baluchestan people would like to join their brethren instead of being in Shia Iran.

("Sistan and Baluchestan in southeastern Iran is a region marked by a long-running, low-intensity separatist insurgency (since 2004) driven by Sunni Baloch grievances against the Shiite-majority state, including systemic discrimination, economic neglect, and harsh security crackdowns. Groups like Jaish al-Adl seek independence or greater autonomy, often operating across the border with Pakistan.")

The Iran/Pakistan cross-border bombings of January 2024 were over Jaish al-Adl (Jundullah).

So it is not clear to me what interests of their own Iran and Pakistan are promoting with the BLA and Jaish al-Adl respectively.